Gold fell almost 2.7% on Thursday. It dropped to $4,945 from an intraday high of $5,100 and briefly moved below $4,900. The fall came even though US yields declined, and it followed strong US jobs data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 7 were 227K versus 222K expected. The 4-week average was 219.5K. January Nonfarm Payrolls showed 130K jobs added versus 70K estimated, and the unemployment rate slipped from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Market Repricing After Strong Jobs Data

Swap pricing pointed to a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve view. Markets reduced expectations for a June cut and priced about 30 bps of easing for the July 29 meeting. The US 10-year yield fell nearly seven basis points to 4.106%, while the DXY rose 0.07% to 96.99. Reports also pointed to renewed nuclear talks between the US and Iran and a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Russia was also said to be considering a return to US dollar settlement. US CPI expectations for January were 2.5% YoY headline (down from 2.7%) and 2.5% core (down from 2.6%). Key technical levels included the 20-day SMA at $4,940, support near $4,800, and the 50-day SMA at $4,602. Resistance was seen in the $5,000 to $5,100 area. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. We are seeing a familiar pattern today, February 13, 2026. It looks like the sharp gold sell-off seen around this time in 2025. Last year, strong jobs data and easing geopolitical risks pushed gold down almost 3%, even as yields fell. Those same drivers are back, which suggests caution for traders still holding long positions. In January 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls came in far above forecasts. The latest January 2026 report was also stronger than expected, with 150,000 jobs added and unemployment down to 4.2%. As a result, traders are pulling back from May rate-cut bets and shifting expectations toward the third quarter. The market also remembers that the Fed kept rates steady longer than many expected through 2025.

Geopolitics Dollar And Near Term Gold Risks

Last year, hopes of progress with Iran and talk of Russia returning to dollar settlements reduced gold’s safe-haven appeal. Today, renewed diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing are having a similar effect. They lower the geopolitical risk premium that built up over the past quarter. That drop in tension can cap bullion’s upside in the near term. In February 2025, a stronger dollar outweighed falling Treasury yields, which is unusual and negative for gold. We are seeing that again. Even with the 10-year yield easing to about 4.05%, the US Dollar Index is holding above 97.00. That is a major headwind for dollar-priced gold. When the dollar is strong, gold costs more for overseas buyers, which can reduce demand. Even so, gold still has important support from central banks, which have been steady buyers. Official data shows they added more than 1,000 tonnes in both 2023 and 2024. That continues the trend from 2022 and helps build a floor under prices during deeper pullbacks. This kind of institutional demand is stronger than it was a decade ago. For derivatives traders, this backdrop may favor put options or put spreads to hedge against a slide toward $4,800, a key psychological level that was tested last year. Selling covered calls against physical holdings may also generate income, since a quick rebound above $5,000 looks less likely until the market has clearer timing for the Fed’s first rate cut. Upcoming inflation data, including next week’s CPI report, will be important for the next move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar stayed near 97 during Thursday’s US session after Wall Street slipped on AI-related worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 96.90. It was slightly stronger, but markets were waiting for the US January CPI report on Friday. A Bloomberg report said Russia wants to return to US dollar settlement. It also mentioned possible cooperation in oil and natural gas, critical raw materials, and nuclear energy. Any shift would require the US to lift sanctions and restore Russia’s access to the US dollar system.

Us Labor Data In Focus

US initial jobless claims fell to 227K in the week ending February 7. This was higher than the 222K forecast, but lower than the prior week’s revised 232K, according to the US Department of Labor. GBP/USD traded near 1.3620 after the jobless claims report. EUR/USD was around 1.1860 ahead of the Eurozone flash GDP (Q4) release due Friday. USD/JPY traded near 152.80 and fell for a fourth straight day. The move followed Japan’s election result and renewed concerns about possible intervention. AUD/USD was around 0.7080 after hitting a three-year high earlier in the day. Gold traded near $4,913 after touching a three-day low. Friday’s calendar includes RBNZ inflation expectations (Q1), Swiss January CPI, Eurozone flash GDP (Q4), and US January CPI. Weekend events include speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Saturday 14 and Sunday 15, along with Japan’s preliminary Q4 GDP on Sunday 15.

Perspective From Last Year

At this time last year, the US Dollar was also uncertain around the 97 level. Tech-sector nerves and geopolitical chatter were driving sentiment. The talk about Russia returning to the dollar system did not lead to anything concrete. Over time, attention shifted back to central bank policy. Now, with the Dollar Index holding above 104, many traders focus more on interest-rate differences than on short-lived headlines. Last year, markets were waiting for the January 2025 CPI report to judge the Fed’s next steps. Since then, inflation stayed stubborn through 2025. The latest January 2026 data shows headline CPI still elevated at 2.9%, which has kept the Fed from clearly signaling rate cuts. This backdrop favors “higher for longer” positioning, including strategies that can benefit from steady or rising rates, such as buying puts on interest rate futures. The AI fears in early 2025 triggered a market drop that later proved to be a strong long-term buying opportunity. New industry figures show continued momentum, with global AI investment in Q4 2025 alone topping $50 billion. That supports the case for long-dated call options on major tech indexes to capture potential upside. In February 2025, there was intense speculation about Japanese intervention when USD/JPY was near 152.80. Authorities did step in later that year, but the pair is now testing 158. This suggests that policy divergence remains the bigger driver. It is a high-tension setup where options can be used to target either a sudden intervention-led drop or a continued grind higher. Gold’s brief surge toward $4,900 per ounce last year marked a peak in market fear. Since then, it has settled into a $2,500–$2,600 range. Steady central bank buying has helped, with net global purchases rising by more than 800 tonnes in 2025. That support may make selling put options on gold attractive for income, while still allowing for protection if volatility returns. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BNY data show a split in FX flows. Latin America has its strongest inflows in six months, while EMEA has its strongest selling in six months. The iFlow Carry index suggests that holdings in high-yield currencies are starting to decline, but the reasons differ by region. Low-yield APAC currencies and the euro appear tied to the broader reversal. Selling that is clearly linked to carry reduction is mainly concentrated in CEE and Africa. Even so, CEE and African currencies are still held at relatively high levels. Latin American currencies are described as better held than other emerging market currencies. Colombia is cited as having restarted its tightening cycle. COP is the strongest-performing currency in iFlow over the past month. The report notes that when valuations and holdings reach extreme levels, profit-taking becomes more likely. It also says fiscal dominance risk in CEE is very high, and that political developments are getting more attention. The report adds that CEE carry positions may be trimmed while volatility remains supportive. It also argues that CEE flows are easier to reduce than flows in other regions. We are seeing a clear split in emerging-market fund flows. Money is leaving EMEA at the fastest pace in six months. Most of that pressure is focused on currencies in Central and Eastern Europe and Africa, even though these positions are still widely held. In contrast, Latin American currencies are seeing their strongest inflows in half a year. Fiscal dominance risk is becoming a key concern in CEE, and markets are paying closer attention to politics. For example, Poland’s January 2026 inflation print remains above target at 4.8%, but the central bank still looks reluctant to tighten. That leaves long positions in currencies such as the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint looking vulnerable. This is very different from Latin America, where central banks appear more independent. Colombia resumed its tightening cycle in 2025, which supported the COP. More recently, Mexico’s nearshoring boom helped lift foreign direct investment by 15% in Q4 2025, supporting the MXN. With FX volatility still low, and the VIX near 14, this is a good time to reduce exposure to CEE carry trades. Derivatives traders could consider buying EUR puts on HUF or PLN to hedge or position for a decline. Another option is to structure trades that favor stronger LatAm currencies, such as going long MXN versus PLN. We saw a similar, though shorter, sell-off in late 2025 when regional concerns emerged, which shows how fast sentiment can change. Given the heavy ownership in CEE FX, trimming these positions may be the easiest move. With holdings and valuations at extremes, the threshold for further profit-taking is low.

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The text describes a bullish reversal in the S&P 500 after the non-farm payrolls release. It then describes a large trap, followed by a rebound that happened after the market close. It says the trap and rebound were covered in premium Telegram channels while they were happening. It reports that initial jobless claims were not a negative surprise. However, continuing claims and the four-week average came in above expectations. It adds that equities and gold moved in response to this labour data.

Market Trap And Rebound Pattern

It refers to a preview of trading and stock signals, including price levels meant to be used for the day’s E-mini S&P 500 (ES) session. It also says that Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst who has served clients since February 2020. We are seeing a pattern like the one that trapped traders in 2025 after a strong Non-Farm Payrolls report. The market looks bullish, but the economic data points to weakness. That makes it risky to chase a breakout. This kind of setup rewards patience, not aggressive bullish trades. The labour market is showing stress, similar to what happened then. Continuing jobless claims have been rising and recently reached 1.95 million, the highest level in more than a year. The four-week moving average is also climbing. While the headline January jobs number looked strong at 215,000, the weakness in ongoing employment is an important warning sign for the economy. For derivatives traders, this suggests higher volatility in the weeks ahead, with the VIX still above 17. That can make premium-selling strategies more appealing. For example, consider iron condors on the S&P 500 to benefit from range-bound trading, especially while the index struggles to break resistance near 5,600. It may also make sense to buy cheap, out-of-the-money puts as a hedge, in case the market suddenly drops when it reacts to the weaker data.

Gold Divergence And Safety Demand

Gold’s move is also important. It has been rising toward $2,150 an ounce even with a stronger dollar. This divergence can signal a flight to safety, with traders seeking protection against a possible economic slowdown. One way to take advantage of this trend is to sell put spreads on gold ETFs. This collects premium while keeping risk defined, based on the view that safety demand could support prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Crude oil prices fell on Thursday as supply fears eased and geopolitical news took center stage. WTI dropped below $63.00 a barrel. WTI moved lower as markets weighed the possibility of easing US-Iran tensions. Traders also questioned hopes for a sharp rise in demand from China.

Global Demand Outlook Shifts

The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global crude demand on Thursday. It pointed to weaker-than-expected demand growth in parts of Asia and a market surplus that remains high, even after brief supply-tightness fears in January. Comments linked to Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu suggested Donald Trump and Iran’s Ali Khamenei may be moving toward a deal. At the time of writing, WTI was down more than 3.5% from the day’s open. Prices were also nearing $62.00. That level is close to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). WTI broke below $63 a barrel in early 2025, and that move helped shape today’s market. The drop was driven by easing U.S.-Iran tensions and early signs that China’s post-pandemic demand surge was weaker than expected. These two themes have capped prices for much of the past year.

Supply Demand Balance

Supply pressure from the United States has been steady and has limited any lasting rally. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed U.S. crude output averaged a record 13.3 million barrels per day in the final quarter of 2025. This wave of American oil has largely offset OPEC+ production cuts, which the group has extended through the second quarter of 2026. On the demand side, last year’s skepticism looks justified. China’s economy has not rebounded strongly. Its manufacturing PMI stayed just above the 50-point mark for much of late 2025, pointing to flat growth rather than the strong expansion needed to absorb excess oil. With European forecasts also being downgraded, global demand growth for 2026 looks weak. In this setting of high non-OPEC supply and soft demand, selling call options may be a sensible approach for the weeks ahead. With WTI trading in a range near $71, selling April calls with strike prices at $77 or higher lets traders collect premium from expected range-bound prices. The strategy can benefit if prices stay flat or drift lower. Still, traders should watch Middle East headlines closely. The possible U.S.-Iran deal discussed last year never fully took shape, leaving tension in the region. Any surprise disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a quick spike in prices, so short-volatility positions should be protected with defined risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY fell for a fourth straight day on Thursday. The Yen strengthened, pushing the pair toward 152.80. This move puts USD/JPY down about 2.75% for the week. The Yen stayed supported after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s general election last Sunday. Markets are also factoring in the chance that the Bank of Japan could raise rates as soon as March or April.

Japan Political And Policy Backdrop

Traders stayed cautious because officials have repeatedly warned about possible action in the currency market. Currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said authorities are “on high alert” for excessive FX volatility. He added they are watching moves closely, acting with urgency, and staying in contact with US officials. The US Dollar also weakened. The Dollar Index was near 96.95, close to a two-week low. US data showed Initial Jobless Claims at 227K versus 232K previously, which was above the 222K forecast. Continuing Claims came in at 1.862M versus 1.841M. January Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130K, beating the 70K forecast. The Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. Focus now shifts to Friday’s US CPI report, with markets pricing about 50 bps of easing by year-end. After this week’s sharp 2.75% drop to around 152.80, further Yen strength looks likely. The new government’s agenda, along with the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish tone, gives the market a clear reason to expect a lower USD/JPY. One-month implied volatility has jumped to 11.5%, up from around 8% through much of late 2025. This suggests traders are preparing for larger swings.

Options Positioning Ahead Of CPI

With the key US Consumer Price Index report close, holding outright short positions can be risky. A hotter inflation print could trigger a sharp rebound higher. A more careful approach is to buy USD/JPY put options. This keeps downside exposure while limiting risk to the premium paid. We are watching March and April expirations with strike prices near the 150.00 psychological level, aiming to position for another break lower. The risk of Japanese currency intervention adds major event risk and could cause a sudden, large move. A similar setup appeared in late 2024, when intervention fears drove a multi-figure drop within hours. Because of this, a long straddle—buying both a call and a put—can be a sensible way to benefit from a big move in either direction after the CPI release or any official action. Over the longer term, the key driver remains the policy gap between central banks. Futures markets now price a 90% chance of a 10-basis-point Bank of Japan hike by April. By contrast, Fed funds futures still show a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve cut by June. This difference continues to support downside pressure on USD/JPY in the months ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The U.S. 30-year bond auction yield fell to 4.75% from 4.825%. That is a drop of 0.075 percentage points. A strong 30-year auction, with yields down at 4.75%, points to solid demand for long-term government debt. It also suggests investors are more confident the Federal Reserve has largely finished its inflation fight. Markets are increasingly pricing in interest rate cuts ahead. Traders can read this as another sign that the high-rate era may be starting to fade.

Bond Auction Signals Shifting Rate Regime

This view lines up with recent January 2026 data. The annual Consumer Price Index cooled to 2.5%, coming in below expectations. The latest jobs report also showed wage growth slowing to 3.8%, which reduces worries about a wage-price spiral. Together, these numbers support the more dovish shift reflected in this auction. In interest rate derivatives, this favors trades that benefit from lower yields in the weeks ahead. Consider buying call options on Treasury bond futures (/ZB) or using SOFR futures positions that would gain if the Fed cuts rates later this year. The auction outcome supports the idea that rate momentum is moving lower. This is a clear change from 2025, when sticky services inflation kept the Fed on alert. It also differs from the sharp mood swings seen during the rate volatility of 2023 and 2024. Current data suggests the market is moving into a new phase. In equity derivatives, a lower-rate backdrop is often supportive for rate-sensitive areas such as technology and growth stocks. Traders may look at long exposure in Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQ) or call spreads on tech-focused ETFs. When discount rates fall, the present value of future earnings rises, which tends to help these companies.

Cross Asset Trading Implications

Falling long-term yields can also reduce market volatility if investors view it as evidence of a “soft landing.” Selling VIX call options could work if the data keeps cooling gradually rather than weakening sharply. In FX, lower U.S. yields can pressure the dollar, which may favor long positions in pairs like EUR/USD. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Hungary’s inflation rate fell to 2.1% year-on-year in January 2026, according to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. This was below the National Bank of Hungary’s 3% target and below market expectations. Core inflation, which strips out more volatile items, dropped to 2.7% year-on-year. This was the first time since January 2019 that both headline and core inflation were below 3%.

Drivers Of The Inflation Surprise

The weaker-than-expected data were tied to government price-shield measures, a stronger forint, and delayed tax and excise duty increases. The price-shield measures were extended again for three months. The text forecast inflation of about 1.5% in February. If these low readings continue, the expected rebound in inflation could be pushed back to later in 2026. Average inflation for 2026 now looks more likely to be around 3%, versus a previous 3.3% forecast. The text also said 25bp base-rate cuts in both February and March were possible, unless a geopolitical shock weakens the forint. January inflation came in much lower than expected at 2.1% year-on-year. With core inflation also down to 2.7%, both measures are now clearly below the central bank’s 3% target for the first time since early 2019. This supports the view that disinflation is strengthening and that policy can shift. This low print increases the chance that the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) continues its easing cycle. We now see a high likelihood of 25 basis point cuts at both the February and March meetings, especially if inflation drops toward 1.5% next month. This also fits with market pricing, which has pointed to a more dovish central bank for weeks.

Trading Risk And Hedging

For interest-rate traders, this may favor receiving fixed on short-dated swaps, as the front end of the yield curve could move lower. Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs) for the months ahead may also be attractive, since they can directly reflect expected policy-rate cuts. In the easing cycle that began in 2023, the front end re-priced quickly after dovish surprises. Rate cuts usually weigh on a currency, but the forint has held up, helped by Hungary’s improving external balance through 2025. Still, as the rate gap versus the Eurozone narrows, traders may want to consider EUR/HUF call options. This provides exposure to a weaker forint while limiting losses if the currency stays stronger than expected. The broader economic backdrop also supports this path. Q4 2025 GDP growth was still weak at 0.9%. The government’s extension of price shields on certain goods, while temporary and artificial, also keeps near-term inflation lower. That gives the NBH more room to cut, similar to the early stage of the 2024 easing cycle, when the base rate was steadily reduced from its 13% peak. The biggest risk to this dovish view is a sudden rise in geopolitical tensions. The forint often reacts sharply because it is seen as a regional risk currency. Any escalation in the Ukraine conflict, for example, could trigger a flight to safety and force the central bank to pause cuts. For that reason, it is important to monitor implied volatility in the forint. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index is holding near 96.92 ahead of Friday’s delayed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A strong January jobs report has pushed expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut out to mid-2026. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on 28 January, after three quarter-point cuts in 2025. Two FOMC members voted for another cut, but Chair Powell pointed to stronger growth and a more stable labour market.

Market Focus Before Cpi Release

January Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130K, the biggest gain in more than a year, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Treasury yields moved higher, expectations for the next cut shifted from June to July, and the odds of a March cut are now below 5%. Swaps are pricing around 49 basis points of easing through December, down from 59 before the jobs report. Headline CPI is expected at 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.7%. The release was rescheduled after a brief shutdown. The dollar is also facing pressure from a stronger Japanese yen, linked to official comments and policy plans under Prime Minister Takaichi. On the chart, the index remains below the 200-period EMA at 97.04. It has traded between 96.80 and 96.95, with support at 96.80, then 96.49 and 96.43. Resistance sits at 97.04, then 97.27. As of February 13th, 2026, markets are in a holding pattern, with the US Dollar Index waiting for today’s key CPI data. Last week’s strong jobs report has pushed back expectations for Fed cuts and increased uncertainty. That has kept the dollar locked in a narrow range just below 97.00.

Trading Implications Into The Data

In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, then paused in January. The Fed said a better growth outlook supported the pause, but two dissenting votes show policymakers are still divided. Markets are now looking to July as the next possible move, since a stronger economy gives the Fed more time to wait. After much of 2025, when core inflation struggled to stay below 3.0%, markets are looking to today’s CPI for signs of progress. The CME FedWatch Tool shows March cut odds below 5%, a sharp drop from a few weeks ago. Traders are now pricing in just under two quarter-point cuts for the full year. For derivatives traders, this backdrop points to higher short-term volatility around the CPI release. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), recently near 16, could jump on any inflation surprise. That can make strategies that benefit from a large move—such as buying straddles or strangles on currency ETFs like UUP—more appealing for the event. Technically, the Dollar Index remains boxed in, with key resistance near 97.04. Options traders may sell call spreads above 97.30 to bet that the ceiling holds, or buy puts below 96.80 to position for a downside break. A clean move beyond these levels after the CPI report would likely force fast position adjustments. A firmer Japanese yen is also weighing on the dollar. This could limit any rally in the Dollar Index even if inflation prints hotter than expected. As a result, upside may be more capped than downside. The first reaction to today’s CPI report will matter, because it will feed directly into rate-cut expectations for July. Treasury yields and interest rate swaps will be key to watch as markets re-price the Fed path. Any meaningful move away from the expected 2.5% inflation reading could set the dollar’s direction for the next several weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Russia may be looking at rejoining the US Dollar settlement system, according to a Bloomberg report. The report cites an internal Kremlin memo that outlines possible areas for US–Russia cooperation. The memo lists a possible return to US Dollar-based settlement, joint oil and natural gas ventures, cooperation on critical raw materials, and work in nuclear energy. It also mentions AI-related projects and preferential terms for US companies that return to Russia.

Potential Areas For Us Russia Cooperation

The memo says any move would depend on the US lifting sanctions on Russia, including restoring access to US Dollar transactions. Western officials quoted in the report question whether Russia would shift away from China, which supplies many components used in Russia’s war economy. The memo says US Dollar integration would help stabilise Russia’s balance of payments and support its foreign exchange markets. For the US, it would strengthen the US Dollar’s position as a reserve currency and could change global energy trade costs between China and America. After the report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) pared earlier losses. It had dropped to about 96.74, then traded around 96.93 and moved toward 97.00. This adds a major geopolitical factor to a situation that has been fairly steady for the past few years. Because markets still remember the extreme volatility of 2022, implied volatility in options on currency and energy futures may rise sharply. For traders, this points to strategies that can benefit from a big move in price, even if the direction is unclear.

Market Implications And Trading Considerations

The US Dollar Index, currently trading near 104.5, could be one of the main winners if Russia makes a credible move back into the dollar system. It would directly challenge the de-dollarization theme that has grown since sanctions began, and it could trigger a strong rally in the greenback. We see value in buying long-dated call options on the DXY or related currency futures to position for that outcome. We also need to look at the ruble, which has stayed weak against the dollar and has traded above 140 for most of 2025. If policy shifts are confirmed and sanctions are lifted, the ruble could strengthen sharply. While most traders have limited access to direct ruble derivatives, this highlights the large “all-or-nothing” risk in assets tied to the Russian economy. In energy markets, with Brent crude holding above $85 a barrel, this development is a clear bearish risk. Joint ventures and renewed Russian access to Western energy markets could mean more stable, long-term supply. Because of that, we should consider buying put options on crude futures for late 2026 to hedge against, or profit from, a possible decline in prices. Still, many remain skeptical that Russia would pivot away from China, so this outcome is far from guaranteed. Talks could fail, and markets could quickly return to where they were. That uncertainty supports using defined-risk option strategies, such as straddles, to trade the chance of a major move without needing to pick the direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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