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Gold prices stabilize amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent comments from Fed officials.
Gold prices rose on Tuesday after the US credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s. President Trump also suggested that the US might back away from peace talks around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, influencing market feelings.
Gold is currently trading around $3,240, bouncing back from earlier losses due to comments from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that we might need 3 to 6 months to see how the market reacts to the downgrade.
UK secures trade deal with the EU, leading to a stronger Pound Sterling against its rivals.
Global Economic Challenges
The strong partnership between the UK and the EU comes as global economic challenges loom, particularly after recent US tariff expansions. The UK’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected soon, with core inflation likely rising to 3.7% and headline CPI to 3.3%. These changes may influence the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates. The Chief Economist of the BoE suggests a careful stance regarding interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces pressure due to a downgrade by Moody’s and ongoing trade disputes with China, affecting its exchange rate. The Pound Sterling is trading positively, holding strong above important levels against the US Dollar. With the US Dollar under pressure and the UK forging stronger economic ties, the Pound continues to rise. This is due to diplomatic progress and encouraging economic data. Moody’s recent credit rating change indicates shifting global risk perceptions, reducing demand for US Dollar positions and drawing interest toward more stable or rising currencies. While Moody’s downgrade was not entirely unexpected, it highlighted existing concerns about US governmental debt sustainability. This quickly influenced foreign exchange markets, resulting in a drop in USD demand, particularly against currencies supported by strong policy signals and stable political environments. On the trade front, the US has made moves against China’s AI chip supply chains, increasing tensions. Beijing has raised concerns about protectionism, adding uncertainty to markets already reacting to recent tariff shifts. These developments have made investors wary of risky dollar investments, prompting them to seek more balanced portfolios.Sterling Support and Economic Alignment
In this context, the Pound found support from technical momentum and growing confidence among institutions. The recent “reset” in UK-EU relations has revived connections that had weakened after Brexit. Joint efforts in areas like SPS standards and collective defense show a commitment to stability instead of sudden policy changes. Participation in EU defense investments, although modest financially, has broader implications for long-term political and fiscal cooperation. The SPS aspect of the recent agreement may not be widely publicized, but it allows smoother trade in agrifood, boosting both exports and inward investments in UK logistics and processing. A £360 million investment in fishing also indicates a commitment to stabilize industries affected by Brexit. Upcoming inflation data this month is anticipated to be significant. With core CPI expected at 3.7% and headline CPI closer to 3.3%, all eyes are on Threadneedle Street. Huw Pill’s encouragement for careful consideration before rate cuts makes sense; inflation is still well above the 2% target, and concerns about ongoing price growth persist. From our view, reducing rates early could be premature given the recent stickiness of wage data. If the inflation report comes in as expected or higher, it may push any dovish stance deep into Q3, giving the Pound more leverage over currencies tied to central banks already easing their policies. On a technical level, the Pound’s stability above crucial support levels indicates more than just speculation. This month, the broad trade-weighted index also moved higher, suggesting real money flows are reflecting these political and economic changes. We see these price movements as significant. Now, it’s important to assess their stability against potential surprises from US monetary policy or further global trade tensions. Practically, this means closely monitoring policy statements, especially from the BoE and the Fed. Any deviation from current forecasts—like a faster pace of loosening by the Fed due to slowing US data—could further extend the Pound’s recovery beyond short-term resistance levels. This creates a sensitive situation in derivatives pricing. Volatility levels are being tested in options markets, and the shift toward a stronger Pound shows a preference based on political stability and relative monetary firmness. Traders need to pay close attention to the BoE’s statements and upcoming US economic data—not just the headline figures. The details of inflation will be crucial. If service-sector inflation continues to rise, amidst ongoing supply constraints, we might see an even stronger bias toward the Pound. There’s also a reason to keep an eye on cross-asset correlations in the coming days. The Pound’s performance increasingly reflects synchronized support from policies, trade agreements, and careful monetary management. In a world of uncertainty, that’s a solid foundation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UOB Group analysts expect the USD/CNH to rise slightly, staying within a range of 7.1850 to 7.2450.
The US Dollar is expected to rise slightly, but it won’t likely reach the resistance level of 7.2330. Right now, it may trade between 7.1850 and 7.2450 since the downward momentum has mostly faded.
In the short term, the currency is predicted to move between 7.1990 and 7.2190, closing at 7.2140, which is a slight increase of +0.06%. While some upward momentum is building, it’s not strong enough to break through 7.2330. There is also resistance at 7.2250 and support levels at 7.2100 and 7.2000.
Analysts Outlook On USD
Analysts have kept a negative view on the USD since early this month. The USD’s failure to drop means its decline towards 7.1700 seems unlikely unless it breaks above 7.2330. Instead, the USD is expected to stay between 7.1850 and 7.2450 due to the reduced downward momentum. It’s crucial to do thorough research before making any financial decisions, as markets carry risks and uncertainties, including possible losses. No specific investment advice is provided; all information should be independently verified for accuracy and completeness. The Dollar’s movements show hesitation to commit strongly in either direction. Trading in the 7.1850 to 7.2450 range indicates a market waiting for a clearer push, but neither buyers nor sellers seem eager. The recent uptick in short-term momentum has raised it to 7.2140, but not strongly enough to overcome resistance levels at 7.2250 or 7.2330. When we say upward momentum is developing but not strong enough to break resistance, we notice the price trying to rise but being met with selling pressure. This happens when traders who bought at lower prices take profits or when new sellers enter the market. Support between 7.2100 and 7.2000 is still intact, but if the price dips below that range, we’ll need to see a significant change in volume or another trigger to confirm a move. Chan’s earlier view that the Dollar might weaken hasn’t exactly been wrong; however, the lack of a downward move has made it hard for that prediction to fully materialize. It now faces some hesitation. This suggests that the market isn’t fully rejecting the idea of a decline, but conditions don’t support it yet. Therefore, we’re not forecasting a drop to 7.1700 unless we see a break above the current resistance. Until then, the sideways movement between familiar levels favors range-based strategies over breakouts.Market Strategy And Signals
This means focusing on short bursts of volume at the range edges. If the price is rejected near the upper limit without breaking past 7.2330, a downward shift may happen again. Conversely, closing above 7.2330 wouldn’t just be a minor change; it would show real buyer commitment. On the lower end, if there’s a clean drop below 7.1990 with increased selling, it could open a path toward 7.1850. However, this is something to monitor rather than act on immediately. From our standpoint, it’s not the time to chase gains unless there’s a confirmed break and hold above the high end of the range. Neutral setups often become clearer when there’s uncertainty in direction. We’re focusing on the price reactions rather than predicting the next move. Let the reactions at the edges guide our views. Today’s bounce was modest and feels fragile without broader market support. It looks like risk appetite is low, so shorter time frames may reveal clearer signals. We will concentrate on volume at key levels and ignore the noise in between. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank analyst notes that electric mobility growth is reducing global oil demand, particularly in China.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly, especially in China and various emerging markets. Last year, sales reached 17 million EVs, a 25% increase from the previous year.
China leads in global sales with 11 million electric vehicles, where nearly every second new car sold is electric. Meanwhile, growth in Europe and the US has slowed a bit.
Projected Global Sales
The IEA expects global sales to hit 20 million EVs this year, making up a quarter of all car sales. By 2030, electric vehicles are likely to represent 40% of car sales, which could reduce oil consumption by replacing 5 million barrels daily. Currently, electric vehicles account for only 0.7% of total electricity use, but this is expected to rise to 2.5% by 2030. However, these projections come with risks and uncertainties. This data should not be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. It’s essential to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The information provided here is for informational purposes only, and we accept no responsibility for any potential errors or omissions. These figures highlight a significant shift in demand for transportation, particularly in China, which is ahead of other nations. With almost half of new car sales being electric, the replacement of petrol and diesel cars is happening faster than expected. What’s noteworthy is not just the volume of sales but the speed of this transition, even as policies change and competition increases.Implications For Energy And Commodities
In contrast, the situation in the US and parts of Europe warrants close observation. The slowdown reflects short-term caution rather than a long-term decline. Challenges like infrastructure issues and cost concerns continue to impact feelings about EV adoption, especially in areas outside cities. However, growth hasn’t disappeared; it has just adapted to current economic conditions. These regions could see renewed growth once vehicle prices decrease and charging stations become more widespread. With an expected 20 million electric vehicles to be sold this year, we’re nearing a point where one in every four new cars globally will be electric, not just in early-adopter countries. This milestone has effects beyond car sales—it will impact power generation, battery materials, and oil consumption. If the goal of 40% market share for EVs by 2030 is achieved, it could result in the loss of up to 5 million barrels of oil each day. This change will affect fuel margins, transportation costs, and shipping fees where diesel is heavily used. Energy traders should already be noticing these effects in pricing and volatility around crude oil. The relationship between car sales and actual oil demand is well-established, and while substitution rates vary based on local electricity sources, there are significant implications for fuel traders, particularly those dealing with urban transportation fleets. On the power grid side, electric vehicles currently consume about 0.7% of total electricity. By the end of the decade, this could rise to 2.5%. Although this may seem modest, it will put added pressure on peak-hour demand and alter load expectations in areas with high EV adoption. We might see a growing divide between regions that embrace this demand and those struggling to upgrade their power infrastructure. Additionally, the growth of the EV market is drawing attention to battery supply chains. Price movements for lithium, cobalt, and nickel are now closely linked to vehicle demand. Many commodity markets are already anticipating supply constraints, making it essential for traders to consider the interplay between battery materials and oil prices, especially if changes in subsidies or tax policies affect sales trends. While forward estimates carry uncertainty and may not always reflect actual outcomes, they provide a framework for understanding market trends. In this case, we are looking at a consistent shift away from combustion engines, increasing power demands, and pressure on raw materials. Timing will be crucial, particularly regarding contract terms. Monitoring regional electric vehicle trade data, energy imports, and battery module shipments will help anticipate short-term challenges and opportunities. Trading strategies that focus solely on static views of oil or refined products may struggle unless they also consider changes in consumption patterns and supply issues in related sectors. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank analyst notes that China’s refineries increased inventories due to recent low oil prices
China’s refineries are using the recent drop in oil prices to increase their inventories. In April, crude oil imports stayed high, but processing fell to 58 million tonnes, or 14.1 million barrels per day. This is lower than March and down 1.4% from last year.
Refinery capacity utilization fell to its lowest point since 2022, dropping to just under 74%, according to Sublime China. Despite domestic oil production being 1.5% higher than last year, crude oil inventories rose by nearly 2 million barrels per day in April.
Apparent Oil Demand and Market Concerns
When adjusted for net exports of refined products, China’s apparent oil demand in April was 5.5% lower than the previous year. This signals ongoing concerns in the world’s second-largest oil consumption market. What we see here is a clear shift in strategy from Chinese refineries, focusing on stockpiling when global prices dip rather than increasing production. This cautious approach suggests they are preparing for future needs rather than reacting to current demands. Although import volumes remained high, processing activity decreased, indicating a disconnect between supply and actual consumption in the country. Utilization rates are now below 74%, at levels not seen since 2022. The rise in inventories by nearly 2 million barrels per day shows that storage is acting more as a buffer than a response to increased demand. Interestingly, refining output dropped even with a 1.5% rise in domestic crude production. This points to a lack of demand downstream rather than supply issues. For those closely monitoring demand metrics, April’s data shows a significant 5.5% year-on-year decline in apparent oil consumption (after adjusting for refined product exports). This suggests more than just a temporary lull and gives us a trend to consider for macro or options positions in the coming weeks.Shifts in Refinery Dynamics
Li from Sublime China emphasizes that utilization rates are structurally lower for now. Considering the already weak domestic growth outlook and uncertainties in industrial output, we can assume that operational decisions at Asia’s largest refiner are becoming proactive rather than reactive. This situation may also impact physical market dynamics. With more oil in storage, there’s likely to be less spot buying pressure, which could affect near-term pricing and potentially slow down price differentials. The flattening risk becomes more significant for calendar and time spreads. From a positioning perspective, it’s important to monitor refined product margins, especially for gasoil and gasoline. Reduced throughput could limit exports if demand continues to stagnate, affecting how much product reaches international markets. If this occurs, margins may strengthen later in the quarter, but only if domestic consumption remains low and inventory growth slows. We rely on short-to-medium term implied volatility measures, particularly for Asian products and related ETF exposures, to understand the potential impacts of these inventory increases. If market participants view the stockpiling as a defense against global instability, it may reduce price volatility in the short term. Conversely, if renewed risk aversion emerges from China’s industrial or consumer sectors, positions should be adjusted defensively. Traders should closely monitor June and July customs and throughput figures. These will clarify whether April was an outlier or if a trend reversal is underway. For now, storage appears to be influencing the market more than demand. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The New Zealand dollar is expected to fluctuate between 0.5900 and 0.5950 against the US dollar.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is predicted to fluctuate between 0.5900 and 0.5950 against the US Dollar (USD). Over the longer term, this currency pair is expected to shift within a tighter range of 0.5835 to 0.5985.
Recently, the NZD gained some upward momentum, reaching as high as 0.5932. However, this upward movement did not strengthen significantly. Therefore, we foresee continued range trading within the adjusted range of 0.5900 to 0.5950.
Outlook Over The Coming Weeks
In the next one to three weeks, the NZD is likely to continue trading between 0.5835 and 0.5985, indicating a mixed outlook. This forecast updates an earlier estimate from May 14, which had suggested a broader range. This information includes forward-looking statements that carry risks and uncertainties. It is not a recommendation for trading in the mentioned assets. We advise conducting independent research before making any investment decisions, as this data may not be entirely accurate or timely. No guarantees of completeness or accuracy are provided. Looking ahead, the narrow trading range expected for the NZD/USD pair suggests limited potential for significant breakouts in the short term. The recent peak at 0.5932 showed some strength, but it did not create enough momentum to signal a clear trend change. Although the recent highs might have prompted some traders to reassess their positions, the lack of sustained strength keeps expectations focused on the discussed range limits. Currently, the trading pattern appears influenced by macroeconomic factors and local interest rates. The updated forecast of 0.5900 to 0.5950 indicates a market balancing between cautious buying interest and hesitance to push down too far. At this moment, there is little evidence supporting a strong directional trend—range preservation seems more applicable.Market Sentiment And Strategy
This view aligns with our expectations for the next two to three weeks, anticipating a range of 0.5835 to 0.5985. The shift from a broader range signals lower volatility but not a complete tightening. It appears that the market is more focused on containment than on impulsive movements. Observing this behavior is crucial, especially as implied volatility metrics are decreasing across G10 FX. Meier’s analysis suggests these bounds rely on interest rate spreads and short-term technical factors. With the Reserve Bank’s current stance and the Federal Reserve’s data-driven approach, we will monitor how relative rate expectations affect market pricing. Adjustments to pricing models may be necessary in the coming weeks. Instruments linked to short-dated options or delta-neutral strategies might benefit from this limited movement, particularly since premiums haven’t fully adapted to the narrowing range. Watching daily closes near the outer edges of the range may become more important than monitoring intra-day volatility, which has been less reliable recently. As investment strategies are adjusted, our preference is to keep positions manageable and adaptive. This approach is important not just from a volatility perspective, but also because liquidity outside the 0.5900 to 0.5950 range has not been tested recently. Traders with long-term positions should be cautious of misleading signals that could arise during low liquidity. We are closely monitoring the tone set by the New York market tomorrow. The reactions during the Asian and European sessions may be subdued, but the overlaps usually reveal market positioning. If we start to see tests towards 0.5835 or 0.5985, particularly with consecutive closes near these levels, it might open up opportunities for options rollovers or inspire order flow seeking a breakout. Until then, range strategies appear to be the most suitable for current conditions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Japan is considering accepting lower US tariff rates instead of requesting an exemption.
Japan might accept lower US tariff rates without asking for exemptions, according to Kyodo News. This comes before talks with the US scheduled for Friday.
Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not expected to attend the talks. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen remains strong due to the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance.
Vulnerability Analysis of Currency Pairs
Analysis shows that the USD/JPY and AUD/JPY currency pairs are vulnerable at certain levels. Japan’s Kato plans to discuss foreign exchange with Scott Bessent this week. The information shared includes risks and uncertainties; it shouldn’t be seen as a recommendation for market actions. It’s important to do thorough research before making financial decisions, as investing carries risks, including the potential for total loss. While Japan seems ready to accept tariff concessions without insisting on full exemptions, this approach may be part of a broader negotiation strategy. By appearing to cooperate with US terms, Tokyo might aim for smoother economic discussions in the future, even if the immediate financial benefit isn’t clear. Bessent’s absence from the talks could create uncertainty about FX coordination between the two countries. Without a direct Treasury presence, messages from the US side might be delayed or unclear, especially when discussing policy alignment and exchange rates. At the same time, the strong Japanese Yen, supported by market expectations of tighter central bank policies, adds pressure on export-sensitive sectors. Market expectations for rate changes are growing, impacting the USD/JPY and AUD/JPY pairs defensively. Recent price movements near 154 and 101 levels show short-term resistance, which traders should watch for re-entry or breakdown confirmations.Japanese Forex Policy and Market Impact
Kato’s intention to address foreign exchange issues with Bessent—despite his absence—might help align policy goals with market pricing. Elevating this conversation usually creates conditions favorable for speculative adjustments, especially if there’s a sense of mutual willingness to manage volatility. If a cooperative tone emerges post-discussion, even without formal interventions, market dynamics could change quickly as participants anticipate any narrative shift. Past cycles have shown that even informal discussions can affect market positioning significantly. Hence, we should monitor implied volatility in JPY crosses over the next few days. Short-term options, especially one-week tenors, are likely to reflect the market’s anticipation of Friday’s meeting and its outcomes. If the Yen remains strong and the Bank of Japan continues its hawkish approach, we might observe notable movements in JPY pairs during less active trading periods, raising tactical risks for traders during these times. It’s essential to note that Japanese officials tend to be deliberate with their communication, allowing markets to adjust before making formal announcements. Any comments about volatility or currency alignment could trigger market sentiment, even without subsequent actions. Therefore, it may be wise to reduce exposure in tight stop-loss situations or where risks lean toward a more cautious central bank. Planning ahead of Friday is prudent. Event-driven FX setups can offer opportunities but also come with slippage risks. Understanding the nuances is critical. This might be a good time to reassess hedging strategies in USD/JPY and keep an eye on key resistance levels that could limit intraday rallies, particularly those exposed to features that can boost momentum in low-liquidity environments. Overall, funding sensitivity and dollar direction remain closely linked, but this week the focus is clearly shifting toward Japan. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In March, the Eurozone’s current account increased to €60.1 billion, up from €33.1 billion.
The Eurozone’s unadjusted current account balance reached €60.1 billion in March, up from €33.1 billion the month before. This rise shows changes in economic activities within the region.
This financial measure indicates the Eurozone’s economic health by reflecting the trade balance in goods and services. It includes net income from investments made across borders and transfer payments.
Increase in Current Account Surplus
The increase in the current account surplus suggests either more exports or fewer imports—or both. It may also reflect changes in capital flows and foreign exchange reserves. Understanding these shifts is vital for analyzing the Eurozone’s economy. The data highlights factors that influence currencies, market behavior, and economic strategies in the region. In March, the Eurozone’s current account surplus jumped to €60.1 billion from €33.1 billion the previous month. This sharp increase shows significant improvement in external economic performance, driven by trade, income flows, and transfers. The surplus grew mainly due to increased exports and a decrease in imports, which limited capital outflow.Implications of Economic Indicators
Such movements often indicate more foreign currency coming in, either because exports are generating more revenue or because fewer euros are used to buy foreign goods. This includes not just trade in goods but also services, investment income from bonds and shares, and remittances. A jump like this reflects wider economic activity in the Eurozone. We need to consider how this data might impact underlying assets and volatility. For traders focused on interest rate futures or FX options, these flows suggest a stronger euro, not just based on speculation. The European Central Bank (ECB) may hold interest rates steady for now, but this surplus provides more flexibility, possibly delaying future policy changes. This creates more opportunities for tactical positioning. Schnabel recently pointed out that stubborn core inflation remains a challenge for the ECB’s goals. Her comments indicate that, although overall numbers are improving, the fight against persistent price pressures is ongoing. This highlights the difference between short-term optimism and medium-term uncertainty, creating a favorable environment for trading strategies that benefit from shifts in rate expectations or changes in volatility. Similarly, Lagarde stressed that inflation is “too high for too long,” maintaining a cautious approach to easing. This underscores a narrative that suggests speculation on relaxation may be premature. The ECB seems focused on long-lasting inflation factors rather than just strong trade data. For those trading futures or swaps linked to short-term interest rates, the current market pricing might need adjustment to reflect these internal signals. The current implied rate paths may not fully account for the surplus’s potential to support a more patient monetary approach, providing opportunities for positioning on flatter rate curves or examining relative value between the euro and dollar paths. It’s important to note that the current account balance generally aligns with the euro’s strength. A euro backed by solid trade and investment is likely to withstand downward pressure, especially if global risk appetite remains stable. This might temporarily reduce volatility. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming Eurozone sentiment indices or purchasing manager data to see if these flows are consistent. If the surplus continues to grow over several months, it will indicate a more stable condition. This would open up possibilities for more directional FX strategies, with protective measures in place for low volatility periods. Overall, the combination of a steady surplus, persistent inflation, and cautious monetary policy suggests that traders should remain active in the options market—particularly regarding rates and FX. Ignoring these shifts in flow would be short-sighted, as they are likely to impact pricing dynamics soon, especially across forward curves. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In March, the Eurozone’s current account hit €50.9 billion, surpassing the expected €35.9 billion.
The Eurozone had a current account surplus of €50.9 billion in March 2025, which was much higher than the expected €35.9 billion. This indicates a stronger economic situation in the Eurozone.
The EUR/USD exchange rate stayed strong above 1.1250, thanks to a weaker US Dollar amid worries about fiscal issues and tariff uncertainties. Investors are paying close attention to speeches from ECB and Fed officials for more guidance.
The GBP to USD Exchange Rate
The GBP/USD exchange rate also gained momentum, reaching 1.3400 as the US Dollar continued its decline. This shift reflects market caution regarding trade uncertainties and the upcoming global PMI data. Gold prices slightly decreased, settling around $3,226 as investors looked for direction. The drop was influenced by comments from Fed officials and a US credit rating downgrade by Moody’s. China’s economy slowed down in April due to uncertainties from the trade war, affecting confidence. Retail sales and fixed-asset investments fell short of expectations, although the manufacturing sector performed better than anticipated. The Eurozone recorded a current account surplus of €50.9 billion in March 2025, significantly above estimates. Analysts expected around €36 billion, making this a positive surprise. The surplus signifies that the region is exporting more than it is importing, thanks to stronger trade balances and a more resilient consumer sector. Energy prices have stabilized, and demand in key European markets hasn’t declined as much as expected. This wider surplus reflects a stable internal economy, which tends to strengthen the euro in currency markets. It has helped the EUR/USD rate maintain a level above 1.1250 recently. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is weakening due to concerns about fiscal policy and potential tariffs, which are affecting investor confidence in US economic direction. A cautious tone ahead of PMI releases is further benefiting the euro.Market Sentiments on Gold
The Bank of England has had to acknowledge the positive momentum in sterling. The GBP/USD pair moved through 1.3400 and has remained around that level. Traders are showing more caution towards the dollar following dovish comments from some US officials and growing concerns over budget pressures. As a result, we’re seeing wider price ranges in GBP options, particularly for one-month contracts. Gold prices have dipped slightly, responding to changing interest rate expectations and portfolio adjustments. The current price is around $3,226 per ounce. We believe that comments from some Fed members about being flexible on further tightening have dampened enthusiasm for gold. The Moody’s downgrade, which usually boosts interest in safe-haven assets like gold, may have been factored into prices already. We are closely monitoring positioning in the futures market, which hasn’t seen significant changes just yet. China is experiencing new pressures, as April’s retail sales and fixed asset investment figures fell short of expectations. This disappointing performance suggests that businesses and households are preparing for continued external challenges due to ongoing trade tensions. However, factory output held up better than expected, indicating a selective resilience rather than overall economic strength. In the coming sessions, we will pay attention to how implied volatility in FX and commodity derivatives responds to these macroeconomic trends. Short-term pricing indicates a wait-and-see approach as traders focus on central bank speeches and the schedule of global PMI releases. Premiums for downside protection in sterling and euro options have increased slightly, signaling growing uncertainty in expectations. This could inform our short-term strategies for directional and volatility-based trading. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The NZD/USD pair consolidates around 0.5950, pausing its recent gains.
NZD/USD is currently trading at around 0.5930, moving within a stable range. The pair aims for the upper limit near 0.6000, with initial support from the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) set at 0.5913.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slight upward trend, staying above 50. If NZD/USD breaks above 0.6000, it could target the six-month high of 0.6038, which was reached in November 2024.
