Eurozone manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in February, with the final PMI at 47.6, up from a preliminary 47.3 and prior 46.6. Despite the overall contraction, Germany’s PMI reached a two-year high, indicating stabilisation in factory production to start the year.

New orders declined at the slowest rate since May 2022, suggesting potential growth in the coming months. However, job cuts increased in February, a common occurrence even after a recession ends.

Business Confidence And Economic Factors

Most companies expressed optimism about the future, with the confidence index slightly above the long-term average. Factors such as political stability in Germany and the possibility of ending the conflict in Ukraine may contribute positively.

Factory activity in the euro area remains in decline, though at a slower pace than in previous months. A reading below 50 still marks contraction, yet the higher PMI figures hint at conditions becoming less severe. The latest uptick offers a reason to monitor output levels more closely, as even modest improvements can influence expectations.

Germany, often seen as the industrial backbone of the region, saw its manufacturing gauge rise to levels not observed in two years. While still in negative territory, this shift implies a reduced strain on production. If this pattern holds, it may lead to steadier operations and fewer disruptions in supply chains. The adjustment in new orders supports this view, as the downward trend is losing momentum. If businesses adapt to lower costs and stabilising demand, the sector could see renewed activity.

Nevertheless, employers are not slowing down workforce reductions. Cutting jobs can persist even after downturns ease, as businesses remain cautious when faced with uncertain conditions. The persistence of layoffs reflects cost-saving measures rather than imminent weakness, though an extended period of reductions could interfere with purchasing power and demand for goods.

Monitoring Future Developments

Optimism remains present, supported by factors that may improve broader confidence. Political steadiness in Germany provides reassurance for companies planning ahead. A clearer path regarding external conflicts could also remove uncertainties that weigh on economic sentiment. Expectations for future conditions have moved above historical norms, which may translate into steadier investment decisions.

While these elements shape the outlook, the focus now shifts to upcoming data releases. Further signs of demand picking up would reinforce the idea that the downturn is losing strength. If firms continue adjusting operations in response to changing orders, it will reveal whether the latest trend has staying power.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) experienced a 43% decline in value over the past three months. The stock shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave ZigZag correction.

Initially, COIN rose from a September 2024 low of $146 to $352 in December 2024. It is now undergoing a corrective pullback targeting $201 to $132, suggesting the decline may soon conclude.

Potential Rebound Scenario

As the stock is expected to rebound, it could reach the $260 mark, indicating a potential 30% increase. A continued rally could push prices toward $300, representing a 50% gain from current levels.

Looking at recent movements, it’s evident that the stock has been through a structured five-wave rise, followed by a correction that aligns with classic market behaviour. This suggests that what we are seeing now is likely not the start of a prolonged downtrend but rather a necessary retracement before further upside potential.

From its September low, the price more than doubled in just three months, which was a rapid climb. That kind of swift movement often leads to corrections, especially when momentum slows. Now that it has pulled back, attention turns to whether this correction is reaching exhaustion. The targeted zone of $201 to $132 gives a range where buyers may start stepping in again. If the price stabilises around this area, that would reinforce the idea that the decline was merely a pause before the next move higher.

Short Term Trading Considerations

If this expected rebound plays out, we would be looking at an initial recovery toward $260. That would wipe away a good portion of the recent losses. Beyond that, if buying pressure persists and broader market conditions are supportive, prices could push toward $300. That would mark a complete recovery from the pullback and reinforce the idea that the overall trend is still pointing higher.

For those focused on trading shorter-term movements, it’s important to assess whether the current decline is indeed nearing its end. Watching volume changes and reaction near the mentioned price levels could provide clarity on when momentum starts shifting back in favour of buyers.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Germany’s final manufacturing PMI for February reached 46.5, an increase from the preliminary reading of 46.1 and the previous 45.0, marking a 25-month high. The output index rose to 48.9, indicating a nine-month high, but employment in the sector is experiencing a sharp decline.

Incoming orders have decreased again but at a slower rate than since April 2022. Signs of improvement in order backlog and a weakening of production declines over the last two months have been noted, with some growth in intermediate goods and near stability in capital goods.

Concerns Over Sustainability

Concerns remain about the sustainability of the upward trend in global industrial activity. Job cuts have sharply increased since mid-2023 as companies have been reducing their workforce despite stabilization signals in production.

Demand remains weak, evidenced by shortened supplier delivery times in February, suggesting excess production and transport capacity. Both finished goods and inputs continue to see inventory reductions.

The outlook ahead is positive but tempered compared to the start of the year. A new government and their economic plans, along with the need for significant investment to modernise public infrastructure, are essential for sustainable improvements in Germany.

That increase to 46.5 is the highest Germany’s manufacturing PMI has been in just over two years. While that is encouraging, it is still below the 50.0 threshold, meaning contraction continues, albeit at a slower pace. The rise in output to 48.9 further suggests that production is no longer declining as sharply. However, the steep drop in employment raises concerns about whether this recovery is stable or driven mostly by temporary factors.

A slower reduction in incoming orders hints at potential stabilisation, but since order books are still shrinking, demand remains weak. The improvement in intermediate goods and near stability in capital goods give reasons for cautious optimism, though they do not yet indicate a broad-based rebound. The backlog of work not deteriorating as fast as before is a positive sign, suggesting that companies may be seeing better prospects ahead.

Impact Of Workforce Reductions

Job reductions, however, bring a different picture. Businesses have been trimming their workforce in large numbers since mid-2023. The persistence of these cuts, despite moderation in production declines, suggests that firms are still bracing for weaker conditions rather than preparing for growth. This tension between improving production figures and deteriorating employment numbers complicates the near-term outlook.

Delivery times shortening in February supports the argument that demand remains soft. When suppliers are able to deliver products more quickly, it often signals that there is excess capacity in the system rather than strong consumer and business demand. Paired with the ongoing decline in inventories for both finished goods and raw materials, this suggests that manufacturers are still cautious about restocking. If they were expecting a sustained recovery, inventory rebuilding would typically begin.

The road ahead depends on more than just the manufacturing sector itself. A new government brings the potential for policy shifts, particularly in terms of investment in infrastructure and economic reform. Any efforts aimed at modernising public facilities and industries could provide longer-term benefits and stimulate activity across multiple sectors. However, without a broader increase in demand, these measures alone will struggle to create momentum.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

In February 2025, Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI recorded a value of 47.8, falling short of the expected 51.9. This indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as any value below 50 suggests reducing activity.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate rallied, approaching 1.0500, as weak US PMI data negatively impacted the dollar. Concurrently, GBP/USD also rose, nearing the 1.2700 mark due to decreased selling pressure on the dollar.

Gold And Bitcoin Price Movements

Gold prices increased beyond $2,880, while Bitcoin experienced a correction, trading around $92,000 after a weekend rally. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious amid various economic indicators and developments.

Canada’s manufacturing sector performed worse than anticipated in February, with its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping below the neutral 50 mark. A reading of 47.8 means activity shrank rather than expanded. Given the forecast was 51.9, the shortfall suggests that industrial production is weaker than expected.

Currency markets responded promptly. The euro moved closer to 1.0500 against the dollar, as poor US PMI data weakened demand for the greenback. Similarly, sterling gained strength, edging up towards 1.2700, with fewer traders looking to sell the pound against an under-pressure dollar.

Gold buyers pushed the metal’s price above $2,880. Meanwhile, Bitcoin cooled down after spiking over the weekend, hovering in the $92,000 range. Some traders took profits, leading to this pullback.

Market Outlook And Future Trends

With a mix of caution and reactionary moves across markets, traders handling derivatives must be aware of how these indicators can shape upcoming price action. The weaker Canadian PMI suggests slowing industrial momentum, which could weigh on broader sentiment if further signs of slowdown appear. If this downturn continues, there may be speculation about future monetary policy adjustments, although no direct signals have been given yet.

On the currency front, the dollar’s slip helped both the euro and sterling gain ground, but whether this persists will depend on future US data releases. If upcoming economic figures reinforce concerns about US growth, further declines in the dollar are possible. In contrast, any stronger readings out of the US could reverse recent moves, applying pressure to both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Commodities remain an area of interest. Gold’s rise suggests that investors are still seeking safe-haven assets, possibly as a hedge against economic uncertainties. If confidence deteriorates further in major economies, demand for gold may continue to build, potentially driving prices higher.

Bitcoin’s retreat from its weekend highs indicates traders locking in gains, but the broader trend remains intact for now. If the digital asset faces further corrections, it will be worth watching whether buyers step back in or whether momentum stalls.

How markets unfold over the next few weeks will hinge on fresh economic data and shifts in sentiment. Traders will need to gauge whether recent moves were temporary reactions to weak figures or if they indicate deeper trends forming in the weeks ahead.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Key Tools For Analysis

Monitoring these price points can assist in managing risk and executing trades effectively, focusing on market conditions and price behaviours to optimise trading strategies.

Looking at these levels, it’s clear that price movement will likely revolve around a few key areas where buying or selling pressure has built up. With Apple closing at $241.84, traders now have a clear reference point to assess potential moves in the coming sessions.

A sharp drop below $240.00 could indicate weakening momentum, increasing the chances of testing lower support levels. If that happens, reactions around $232.00 or $220.00 would be telling. A failure to hold these could bring further downside towards $224.00 or even the January low of $219.38. These types of moves can create both risks and opportunities, making it all the more important to assess whether buyers regain control.

On the other hand, if the price holds above short-term support, a retest of resistance at $255.75 could come into play. A push beyond this mark would likely put pressure on the $260.00 level, which has acted as a ceiling in the past. If Apple moves in that direction, long-term investors will be watching closely to see if the momentum is sustained or if it sparks profit-taking.

Levels such as $213.00, $200.00, and $196.00 remain on the radar for those tracking broader market conditions. Price reactions in these areas could provide insight into shifts in sentiment. Tools like VWAP and Volume Profile will help identify whether institutional activity is reinforcing these levels or if larger players are stepping aside.

Next Steps For Traders

With this in mind, the next steps for traders involve monitoring reactions at support and resistance, adapting to shifting momentum, and using historical price action to refine expectations. Each move will offer new information about where price could be headed next.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

After recovering from a sell-off between February 2022 and October 2023, BAC’s stock is positioned for a potential breakthrough of its February 2022 high.

Buying On Pullbacks

Expectations include one more upward wave before a corrective pullback may occur, with a target of a new peak. Members are encouraged to buy on pullbacks as part of strategic trading setups. Recent trades have shown positive outcomes from identified buying zones, indicating potential upward movement towards past highs. Future price action will be monitored for further opportunities to capitalise on swings upwards.

Paul has highlighted that sentiment could shift quickly once prices begin testing resistance again, so patience is key. While prior buying opportunities have proven rewarding, market conditions should be reassessed continuously.

Monitoring Market Conditions

If history is any guide, an eventual correction will surface, though its timing remains uncertain. For now, the preference remains to engage in disciplined buying when valuations appear temporarily weaker rather than reacting hastily to short-term spikes.

As conditions unfold over the next few weeks, traders should keep a close eye on volume and underlying trends. When movement starts confirming expectations, decisions should be based on structure rather than emotion. While there’s much to consider, the patterns playing out now resemble past bullish formations that led to extended upward cycles.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

France’s final manufacturing PMI for February stands at 45.8, slightly higher than the preliminary reading of 45.5 and up from the previous figure of 45.0. Despite the improvements, both output and new orders are experiencing steep declines, compounded by weak demand across the industry.

Price pressures have intensified, with industrial companies citing increased costs for energy, fuels, and materials. This has resulted in poor pricing power, leading some firms to lower their prices to stay competitive.

Slower Decline In Orders

While order intakes are still shrinking, the rate of decline has slowed. Increased sales to regions such as Europe and the USA have been reported, but a broad recovery remains unlikely. Future output expectations just surpass stagnation, with firms expressing mixed feelings about their prospects.

French manufacturing is still under pressure, even with a slight recovery in the headline figure. The latest reading surpasses both the flash estimate and the prior month’s result, though not enough to overturn the broader negative trend. Production levels remain weak, while fresh demand remains sluggish. Fewer new purchases indicate that businesses are hesitant, likely due to ongoing concerns about economic conditions.

Higher costs remain a problem for many. Energy and raw materials continue to weigh heavily on manufacturers, forcing some to absorb the expenses themselves. Discounts have been necessary for certain firms to maintain orders, which in turn impacts margins. Weak pricing power suggests that competition is keeping selling prices from following input costs higher, leading to tight financial conditions.

Although declines in orders appear to be slowing, they have not stopped. Trade with regions like Europe and the US has offered some support, but not to an extent that could shift expectations firmly towards a rebound. Confidence is mixed, with most firms unwilling to commit to a stronger outlook. Plans for future output remain cautious, keeping investment decisions in check.

Impact On Margins

For those watching price pressures, the trend in cost absorption is worth noting, as balance sheets may continue to suffer. If external demand remains fragile and firms are forced to lower prices further, margins could shrink. This makes movements in material expenses critical in the next few weeks. How much flexibility businesses have to navigate these pressures remains uncertain, and limited pricing power adds further strain.

Export sales provide some optimism, but they are not enough to offset the broader challenges. While some manufacturers may benefit from external demand, domestic conditions suggest that any turnaround will take time. Production planning will likely reflect this struggle, and without stronger signs of recovery, hesitation in investment will stay.

Given current conditions, the next updates will be particularly relevant in assessing whether this moderation in the downturn continues or re-accelerates. Trends in pricing behaviour will matter, especially if firms hesitate to pass on costs. The ability of manufacturers to manage tightening margins will be a key area of focus, determining how long this weak demand phase lasts.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

EUR/USD has strengthened to near 1.0470 after bouncing back from a two-week low of 1.0360. This recovery follows European leaders, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, expressing readiness to develop a peace plan for Ukraine.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% this Thursday. ECB concerns about US tariffs possibly harming Eurozone economic growth are rising amid a slowdown in inflation, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showing a growth of 2.4% in February.

Us Dollar Index Performance

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 107.00 as fears regarding US tariffs on Canada and Mexico have decreased. Although tariffs are confirmed, their actual percentage remains uncertain.

There is a growing expectation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in June, supported by a decline in consumer spending data. This week, market attention will shift towards key US economic indicators, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Manufacturing PMI data.

Despite the recent rebound, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD appears bearish, with a critical support level at 1.0285 and a resistance level at 1.0530.

The recent rebound in EUR/USD to around 1.0470 comes off the back of a broader shift in sentiment, particularly in response to efforts towards a potential peace plan in Ukraine. European leaders, including Volodymyr, have signalled they are open to discussions, which has contributed to renewed confidence in the Euro.

A key focus this week will be the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday, where we expect a 25-basis-point reduction in the Deposit Facility Rate, bringing it to 2.5%. The ECB has been increasingly wary of the potential damage that US tariffs could inflict on the Eurozone economy, especially as inflation pressures ease. February’s HICP report confirmed inflation at 2.4%, reinforcing arguments for a cut to ensure economic stability.

On the US side, the Dollar Index has slipped below the 107.00 mark, reflecting easing concerns surrounding tariff risks linked to Canada and Mexico. Although these tariffs are set to go ahead, the precise rates remain unknown. This lingering uncertainty has likely kept traders cautious, leading to some weakness in the Dollar’s strength against other currencies.

Federal Reserve Rate Expectations

Interest rate expectations in the United States are also shifting. Markets are increasingly betting on a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve in June, particularly as consumer spending data continues to soften. If these trends persist, the case for policy easing would strengthen. In the coming days, attention will turn to key US economic reports, with Nonfarm Payrolls and Manufacturing PMI figures poised to shape sentiment further.

For those watching EUR/USD in the short term, technical conditions suggest that downward risks remain, despite this recent bounce. A key support sits at 1.0285, while resistance is marked at 1.0530. How the pair moves within this range will depend on the upcoming data and central bank actions on both sides of the Atlantic.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Italy’s manufacturing PMI for February recorded a value of 47.4, surpassing the anticipated 46.8, while the previous figure stood at 46.3. The report indicated a modest decline in production volumes, reduced output charges, and decreases in employment and purchasing as firms continue to retrench.

Manufacturing remains in contraction, with ongoing deindustrialisation trends evident in production figures. Employment has also been adversely affected, with staff reductions noted over the last five months as companies reduce stock levels instead of increasing production due to low order volumes.

Unexpected Business Optimism

Despite current challenges, there is some unexpected optimism among businesses. This may be driven by expectations of political stability in Germany, further rate cuts, and potential manufacturing-friendly policies from the EU.

A reading of 47.4 means factory activity is still shrinking, but not as quickly as before. Forecasts had suggested a lower figure, so this outcome implies some resilience, even if production remains weak. Companies are scaling back, shedding workers, and purchasing less, showing that businesses are still adjusting to lower demand.

Manufacturers are producing less because new orders remain subdued. Rather than building up stock, they are running down inventories, a typical response when there is little confidence in demand bouncing back. Employment trends reinforce this picture, as job losses have persisted for five months. Businesses do not hold on to workers unless they expect conditions to improve soon.

Yet, optimism has emerged. Companies could be hopeful about political clarity in Germany as that tends to shape industrial demand across Europe. Lower interest rates in the months ahead may also relieve financing pressures for businesses with high borrowing costs. And if policymakers in Brussels push for measures that benefit production, the industrial outlook could improve.

Market Reactions And Outlook

Forward-looking traders would act accordingly, assessing whether the lift in sentiment among manufacturers is justified. Projections of lower borrowing costs remain a talking point, but the timing and scale of future rate cuts remain an open question. For now, production cuts and job losses suggest no immediate turnaround.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

In February, Swiss manufacturing conditions showed improvement, with increases in both output and new orders. The manufacturing PMI reached 49.6, surpassing the forecast of 48.0 and an earlier reading of 47.5.

This shows that overall activity is experiencing a slight contraction after a softer phase since the previous year. The figures suggest a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector.

Signs Of Renewed Momentum

While the numbers still indicate a mild contraction, they show a step towards renewed momentum. The latest data points to a production environment that isn’t as restrained as before. Factories are seeing some relief with more orders coming in, which naturally boosts expectations.

When comparing the recent reading to earlier figures, there’s a contrast. Conditions were weaker in prior months, making the latest rebound a change in direction. The improvement in orders plays a role in this, as higher demand generally translates into a busier industrial sector.

Market participants will be examining whether this upturn continues or if it remains a temporary shift. This is especially important given how broader economic conditions affect manufacturing as a whole. Looking beyond the immediate numbers, the trajectory of factory activity can influence expectations in other areas.

With these new developments, there’s reason to watch how pricing pressures respond. If production continues to stabilise, adjustments in cost expectations may follow. These reports also form part of a wider set of signals that help in assessing near-term movements across various markets.

Impact Of External Factors

As we interpret these results, it’s useful to consider how external factors weigh on business expectations. Elements such as raw material supply, global demand, and financial conditions all feed into how manufacturers navigate current conditions. The coming weeks will give further clarity on whether this momentum holds or if adjustments in positioning are required.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.