Greece’s year-on-year consumer price index rose to 2.5% in December, up from 2.4% previously.
Greece’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% year on year in December. This was up from 2.4% in the prior reading.
The data shows a 0.1 percentage point rise in the annual inflation rate. These figures measure how consumer prices changed versus the same month one year earlier.
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen says strong US jobs data led to upgraded 2026 growth forecasts and delayed rate cuts
Societe Generale raised its US growth forecast for 2026 and beyond after strong US labour market data in January. The upgrade reflects a stronger jobs market and other fast-moving indicators of activity.
The Federal Reserve ties its policy choices to the labour market and inflation. With inflation still high and hiring still strong, Societe Generale updated its view of where the Fed funds rate is headed.
The bank now expects just one Fed funds rate cut in 2026, most likely at the June FOMC meeting. It also warns that new data could keep rates unchanged until later in 2026.
The article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It was published by the FXStreet Insights Team, which selects market observations from external experts and adds analysis from internal and external contributors.
The strong January jobs report is making us rethink the Federal Reserve’s path for 2026. Payrolls rose by more than 350,000, far above the 180,000 consensus. This suggests the labour market is still very strong. Along with other high-frequency data, this pushes expected rate cuts further out.
This echoes what happened in 2025, when markets priced in multiple cuts that never arrived. The latest CPI inflation reading is still firm at 3.4%, well above the Fed’s target. That leaves policymakers with little reason to cut soon. The story is changing from “when will cuts start?” to “will we even get cuts before the second half of the year?”
In the next few weeks, interest rate futures are likely to reprice again. The chance of a cut priced into the March and May contracts could drop close to zero. Even the June SOFR futures contract may show lower odds of a cut. We are closing positions that depend on an early easing cycle.
For options traders, more uncertainty around timing usually means higher implied volatility, especially for contracts linked to FOMC dates. Options that protect against rates staying high for longer—or even a surprise hike—will likely become more expensive. Selling volatility in rates has become much riskier.
This also affects equity derivatives, especially in growth sectors that are sensitive to interest rates. Call options on indexes like the Nasdaq 100 may lag as a “higher for longer” outlook pressures valuations. The risk now points to a later Fed move, not an earlier one.
Yu says the NZD’s gains may stay capped because the RBNZ trails the RBA, and it isn’t an AUD proxy
BNY’s EMEA macro strategist Geoff Yu says the New Zealand dollar (NZD) should not be used as a direct stand-in for the Australian dollar (AUD). That view follows fresh policy divergence in the G10 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates. Markets still expect Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hikes in the second half of the year, but New Zealand’s growth outlook has been downgraded.
Interest rate futures point to a more cautious path in New Zealand than in Australia, which caps NZD gains versus AUD. The December 2026 futures contract implies rates near 3%, but end-2026 pricing remains well below last year’s levels and has barely changed since December.
Inflation Trends And Policy Divergence
New Zealand inflation is still high, which supports a shift toward tighter policy. Further out, inflation is expected to return to target sooner, while longer-term growth and price risks remain unclear. The article points to mild fiscal tightening and weaker external demand as drivers of a large output gap that may need monetary support. It also notes that New Zealand’s smaller economy and more volatile output gap can weaken the case for pre-emptive tightening. Investors should avoid treating NZD as a simple substitute for AUD. Even though markets expect RBNZ hikes in the second half of this year, the projected pace is far less aggressive than for the RBA. Overnight Index Swaps suggest under 50 basis points of RBNZ tightening by December, versus about 75 basis points priced for the RBA. This caution reflects New Zealand’s softer economy, which became clearer through 2025. The final Q4 2025 GDP print confirmed the weakness, with a small 0.1% contraction. That helps explain why markets remain hesitant about the medium-term outlook. Australia, in contrast, still looks firmer. Its January 2026 jobs report showed a tight labor market. Inflation trends are also moving apart. New Zealand’s Q4 2025 CPI slowed to 4.5%, a sign inflation may be returning to target faster. Australia’s inflation has been more persistent, with Q4 2025 CPI at 5.2%, supporting the RBA’s more hawkish stance.Implications For Aud Nzd Positioning
New Zealand’s growth forecasts were cut sharply last year, and rate futures have still not returned to early-2025 levels. That weakness has shown up in FX. AUD/NZD has recently moved toward multi-month highs near 1.1050, suggesting the market is leaning toward AUD on stronger fundamentals. With this divergence, it makes sense to position for AUD to outperform NZD in the coming weeks. Traders could consider buying AUD/NZD call options to gain upside exposure while limiting downside to the premium paid. This approach allows participation in further AUD strength, which looks plausible given the different central bank paths. Weaker external demand and a wide output gap in New Zealand also mean the NZD may not get the same valuation boost as the AUD, even if risk sentiment improves. As a result, NZD is a less reliable way to express a positive global growth view than AUD. Positions that benefit from NZD underperformance versus AUD therefore look well supported. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.ING’s Pesole says weak UK growth in late 2025 keeps EUR/GBP bullish, with jobs and inflation data guiding BoE reactions
UK GDP data suggests the economy ended 2025 on a weak note. Construction activity and business investment both softened. The Bank of England had already concluded that growth slowed late in 2025, based on data from October and November.
Focus now shifts to next week’s UK jobs and inflation releases. Recent numbers have pointed to weaker hiring and a sharp slowdown in wage growth.
Uk Growth Backdrop And Policy Implications
ING expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in March and again in June. The report connects these expected cuts with a stronger outlook for EUR/GBP. ING remains bullish on EUR/GBP and sets a short-term target of 0.88. The article also notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The UK economy ended 2025 in a weak position. GDP contracted by 0.1% in the final quarter, which supports our approach. Weakness in construction and business investment has continued into the new year. This strengthens the case that the Bank of England may need to act soon, making a near-term policy shift more likely. The main driver for EUR/GBP is the widening gap between central bank policy paths. We expect the Bank of England to cut rates in March and again in June to support a sluggish economy. By contrast, Eurozone inflation remains sticky at 2.5%. That makes the European Central Bank more likely to keep rates unchanged for longer.Proposed Eur Gbp Options Expression
To express this view, we are considering buying EUR/GBP call options expiring in April 2026. This would help us benefit from potential volatility and upside moves around the expected March Bank of England rate cut. A strike near 0.8750 looks reasonable if the pair moves toward the 0.88 target. Next week’s UK jobs and inflation data will be key. The slowdown in wage growth seen at the end of 2025 needs to continue to strengthen the case for a March cut. The main risk is an unexpectedly high inflation reading, which could delay the Bank’s move and weaken this bullish view. A similar divergence was seen in 2014–2015. Different policy paths between the two central banks helped drive a sustained trend in the pair. That history supports the idea that the current setup—where the Bank of England is likely to cut before the ECB—could push the cross meaningfully higher. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/CAD hovers near 1.3600 at the nine-day EMA, but a descending channel keeps the bearish outlook intact
USD/CAD stayed in positive territory after small gains in the previous session. It traded near 1.3580 during European hours on Thursday. On the daily chart, the pair remains inside a descending channel, which suggests a bearish bias.
The 14-day RSI is 39. This points to weak upside momentum, even after a minor bounce. Price is still below the falling nine-day EMA and the 50-day EMA, and both moving averages are trending lower.
Key Support Levels
Support is near 1.3500. This is a key psychological level and is often seen as a “Support Bounce” area. If the pair breaks below 1.3500, it could fall toward the bottom of the channel near 1.3220. To ease selling pressure, the pair would need to close back above the nine-day EMA at 1.3607. Additional resistance sits near the upper channel line around 1.3690, and at the 50-day EMA near 1.3743. A break above 1.3743 could open the door to the two-month high of 1.3928, set on January 16. This technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool. USD/CAD is also testing the 1.3600 area, which is an important resistance level. The price is still confined to a descending channel, so the easier path remains lower. This keeps the outlook bearish for the coming weeks.Fundamental Drivers
This technical setup is being challenged by recent fundamental data. US inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.3%. That supports the US dollar and could put the downtrend at risk, making short positions more vulnerable. The key question is whether price can break and hold above the 1.3607 moving average, which would signal real strength. At the same time, the Canadian dollar is getting support from a strong domestic jobs report and firmer WTI crude oil prices near $85 per barrel. These factors support the bearish case for USD/CAD. They also match the weak RSI reading, which remains below 50. For derivatives traders, this may favor buying put options with strikes below the 1.3500 psychological level, targeting a possible move toward 1.3220. These positions benefit if the bearish channel holds over the next few weeks. With RSI momentum still weak, option premiums may be relatively lower. Reversal risk still matters. The sharp rally in late 2025, driven by diverging central bank policy, is a reminder that trends can flip quickly. A clear break above the channel near 1.3690 could invalidate the bearish setup and make call options more appealing. In that case, the next target would be the January high near 1.3928. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.With mixed Fed signals, gold remains weak in Europe, holding above $5,050 near lows
Gold stayed near its daily low in early European trading on Thursday. Still, it held above $5,050. It was also close to a near two-week low set the day before.
A stronger US Nonfarm Payrolls report lowered expectations for faster Federal Reserve rate cuts. January job gains came in at 130K, compared with a revised 48K previously and 70K expected.
The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Average Hourly Earnings stayed at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast. CME FedWatch showed markets pricing a 95% chance of no rate change in March, up from 80% the prior day.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the labour market is moving toward balance and policy is close to neutral. She added that holding rates steady is the best way to reach 2% inflation. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned that further rate cuts could keep inflation higher for longer.
The US Dollar rose after the data but did not show strong follow-through. Markets still expect two 25 bps cuts this year, with the first in July. Attention now turns to US consumer inflation on Friday and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.
Technical signals were mixed: MACD histogram 0.17, RSI 55.65, and the 200-period 4-hour SMA at $4,757.23. Key price levels include $5,004.47 (50% retracement), $5,144.94 (61.8% resistance), plus the 5,599.68 high and 4,409.26 low.
Yesterday’s strong jobs report sharply changed the odds of a March rate cut. Markets now see it as very likely the Fed will hold steady. That leaves gold in a difficult position: short-term data looks hawkish, while the broader view still points to two cuts later this year. For now, price is consolidating above the key $5,000 level.
This looks similar to early 2025. Back then, a few sticky inflation reports pushed the first expected rate cut from March to June. Today, wage growth at 3.7% is still higher than the last reported CPI inflation of 2.9% for December 2025. That gives the Fed a clear reason to wait. It also suggests the Fed will want more data before it signals any near-term cuts.
With gold pinned between $5,004 support and $5,144 resistance, the near-term approach is to trade the range. Very short-dated options strategies that benefit from low volatility, such as selling strangles, could work while the market waits for the next major data release.
The bigger move will likely come after the US consumer inflation report tomorrow. This is the key catalyst. It could either support the Fed’s cautious stance or bring back hopes for faster easing. Traders should expect a jump in volatility and a possible breakout from the current range.
If inflation is hotter than expected, gold could break below $5,004 as markets push rate-cut expectations even further out. If inflation is softer, it would support the case for a July cut and could help push price through $5,144. This is the “either/or” event that most traders are positioning around right now.
Even with the uncertainty, the broader trend stays positive as long as price remains above the 200-period moving average near $4,757. Longer-term expectations for eventual rate cuts, along with concerns about central bank policy, should keep supporting gold. Because of that, any sharp dip after the inflation data may be viewed as a potential buying opportunity.
OCBC strategists say the yen rose as Japanese bonds and shares rallied after elections, easing fiscal worries
The Japanese yen strengthened after Japan’s election. It rose alongside gains in local bond and equity markets. The move is linked to lower fiscal worries, as the government has taken a more cautious tone while investors wait for clearer policy signals.
Prime Minister Takaichi said a temporary cut to the food sales tax would not be funded by new debt. The cut is estimated to cost about JPY 5tn per year, roughly the size of Japan’s education budget.
Yen Pullback Reduces Intervention Pressure
USD/JPY has pulled back, easing near-term pressure for coordinated foreign-exchange intervention signals. OCBC keeps its end-2026 forecast for USD/JPY at 149. OCBC expects the yen to remain mainly a funding currency unless the Bank of Japan turns more hawkish. Its base case still includes two rate hikes this year. With USD/JPY moving back toward 151, we see an options-market opportunity. The yen’s recent strength—driven by easing fiscal concerns after the election—has reduced the near-term risk of intervention. That points to a period of lower realized volatility. In 2024, interventions came as USD/JPY pushed forcefully above 155 and 160. The current retreat from those levels reduces the urgency for officials to act. This may make selling short-dated USD/JPY volatility more appealing. One-month implied volatility has already dropped below 9%, reflecting the lower tension.Longer Term Forces Still Weigh On Yen
Even so, the longer-term fundamentals still lean toward a weaker yen. The interest-rate gap remains wide: the US Fed funds rate is 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan policy rate is 0.25%. This makes holding yen less attractive and should limit how much further the currency can strengthen on its own. For now, the Bank of Japan also looks unlikely to tighten aggressively enough to change this. Markets are pricing in only two small rate hikes through the rest of 2026, even with core inflation at 2.2%. This supports the view that the yen will stay a funding currency, which limits its upside. As a result, it may make more sense to use strategies that benefit from range-bound trading, rather than positioning for a large yen rally. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Stronger US jobs data keeps the dollar steady and highlights key forex developments to watch
The US Dollar stayed strong late in the week after the January US labour report. Thursday’s US calendar includes weekly Initial Jobless Claims and January Existing Home Sales.
US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, after 48,000 in December (revised from 50,000), beating the 70,000 forecast. The jobless rate eased to 4.3% from 4.4%, and participation rose to 62.5% from 62.4%.
Dollar Reaction And Market Snapshot
The USD Index climbed to about 97.30 after the data, then traded around 97 early Thursday. US stock index futures were up 0.2% to 0.3%. UK GDP rose 0.1% in the three months to December 2025, matching Q3’s 0.1%. Year-on-year growth was 1.0% in Q4 2025 versus 1.2% expected and 1.2% in Q3 (revised from 1.3%), while industrial and manufacturing output fell 0.9% and 0.5% month-on-month in December; GBP/USD was near 1.3630. EUR/USD held near 1.1870, while USD/JPY traded below 153.00 at a two-week low. AUD/USD reached about 0.7150 after a 0.7% rise, then stayed above 0.7100; gold held above $5,000. January’s strong jobs report supports our view that the Federal Reserve will keep policy tight. Nonfarm Payrolls came in well above expectations at 130,000, showing the US economy is still holding up. That backdrop supports a firmer US Dollar. As a result, we may want to position for further dollar gains using options or futures.Inflation And Policy Implications
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 showed headline inflation at 3.1%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target. In late 2025, the Fed repeatedly stressed that inflation was its main focus. This combination of solid job growth and sticky inflation gives the Fed little reason to cut rates soon. The gap between the US and UK outlook is also clearer. The US labour market looks strong, while UK Q4 2025 GDP rose only 0.1% and December industrial production fell. This weakness suggests GBP/USD may be at risk. We may want to look for chances to take bearish exposure, such as buying pound put options. Even with broad dollar strength, USD/JPY is at a two-week low below 153.00. This likely reflects growing speculation that the Bank of Japan could move away from negative interest rates, which would support the yen. Because these forces point in different directions, the pair looks higher risk. It may be best to stay cautious until the BoJ gives a clearer signal. Gold holding above $5,000 stands out in a hawkish Fed environment. A stronger dollar and higher rates often weigh on gold, as they did for much of 2025. Its resilience suggests investors may be using gold as a hedge against stubborn inflation or geopolitical risk. For now, aggressive short positions in gold look risky. The Australian Dollar is also showing its own strength after hawkish comments from the RBA. With AUD/USD holding above 0.7100, this is a contest between two strong currencies. That can lead to range trading, which may favour strategies that benefit from low volatility, such as selling strangles. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UK preliminary GDP rose 0.1% quarter on quarter in Q4 2025, missing the 0.2% forecast and matching Q3 growth
UK preliminary GDP rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q4 2025. This matched Q3 but missed the 0.2% forecast. Annual growth was 1.0% year-on-year (YoY), below the 1.2% expected. Q3 growth was also revised down to 1.2% from 1.3%.
Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December, down from 0.2% in November (revised up to 0.3%). Industrial Production fell 0.9% month-on-month (MoM) and Manufacturing Production fell 0.5% in December. Both were worse than forecasts.
Market Reaction And Release Timing
After the release, GBP/USD fell 0.03% to 1.3615. The GDP data was scheduled for 7:00 GMT. Before the release, forecasts pointed to 1.2% YoY growth in Q4 2025 and 0.2% QoQ growth. The Bank of England (BoE) projected 0.9% growth in 2026 and around 1.5% growth for the full year. Markets were pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the March 19 meeting. December inflation showed CPI at 3.4% YoY, core CPI at 3.2% YoY, and services inflation at 4.5%. Overall, the Q4 2025 growth figures came in below expectations. This suggests the UK economy is slowing faster than expected. The 0.1% QoQ reading, along with weak industrial and manufacturing numbers, points to a soft start to 2026. This adds weight to the case for a BoE rate cut in March.Trading Implications Into The BoE Meeting
This looks like a stagflation-style setup: weak growth alongside still-elevated inflation. It echoes 2023, when inflation stayed high even as growth was near flat. At that time, inflation peaked above 11% in late 2022, which pushed the BoE to keep rates high. Today, with inflation at 3.4%, the BoE faces the same tension: control inflation while supporting a slowing economy. For derivatives traders, this push-pull between weak growth and sticky inflation can support a volatility-buying approach. GBP pairs may see larger swings into the March 19 policy meeting. Buying straddles or strangles on GBP/USD options could help capture a large move either way, since the market remains split on what the BoE will do. Given the weak data, a bearish bias on Sterling still makes sense. The drop in December manufacturing also recalls late 2023, when the UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2, pointing to a deep contraction. One approach is to consider GBP/USD put options with strikes below the 1.3508 support level, or to look at short positions in Sterling futures. It may also make sense to look for relative value trades versus currencies with stronger outlooks. With the UK weakening, selling the Pound against the US Dollar is a straightforward idea, especially if the Federal Reserve has less need to cut rates quickly. That policy gap could keep pressure on GBP/USD in the weeks ahead. The key release to watch next is the January 2026 inflation report. A softer reading would give the BoE more room to cut, which could push the Pound sharply lower. Another hot inflation print would deepen the BoE’s dilemma and may lead to more choppy, erratic trading. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Standard Chartered says US payrolls rebounded unexpectedly, boosting expectations for a recovery in easing as job growth quickened and unemployment fell
The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed stronger labor-market momentum than expected. It reported faster job growth, a lower unemployment rate, and a higher employment-to-population ratio.
The data came after large downward benchmark revisions to earlier figures. Even with those revisions, the report still pointed to a firmer labor market in late 2025 and into 2026.
Health care and social assistance remained the main drivers of job growth. Other areas of the economy also showed early signs of improvement.
The report suggests the labor market could improve further, but uncertainty remains. One strong month does not remove broader concerns, especially with weak sentiment and the risk of an AI-related shock.
The article was produced using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
The January employment report was much stronger than expected. It beat almost all forecasts and showed a surprising jump in hiring. Job gains were 303,000, far above the 185,000 consensus estimate, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. This suggests the economy is regaining strength as we move deeper into 2026.
This kind of data makes it very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of the year. Inflation also moved slightly higher to 3.2% last month, which gives the Fed more reason to keep rates unchanged. Derivatives markets will likely price in a much lower chance of a rate cut before summer.
For traders, this supports a “higher for longer” view on rates. One possible approach is using options on Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures that benefit if near-term rate cuts do not happen. With the job market holding up, aggressive bets on fast Fed easing look risky in the weeks ahead.
The report also adds uncertainty for equity indexes, which strengthens the case for buying downside protection. A strong economy can support earnings, but delayed rate cuts can weigh on stock valuations. Volatility may stay elevated, as shown by the VIX moving back above 15 after the release.
It is also worth noting the broader context. During 2025, recession fears were widespread and sentiment was weak. Large downward revisions were later made to last year’s job figures. One month of very strong data is not enough to settle concerns about the longer-term trend.
Health care and social assistance are still doing most of the heavy lifting for job growth, but the rebound is starting to spread to other sectors. That may justify watching options on cyclical industry ETFs for signs of more strength. Even so, the potential impact of AI on the labor market remains unclear and could become a source of future weakness.
