EUR/USD slips below 1.1900 to around 1.1885 after strong US jobs data and a hawkish Fed
EUR/USD slipped below 1.1900 on Wednesday as the US dollar rebounded after the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The pair traded at 1.1885, down 0.07%, after hitting a daily low of 1.1833.
US payrolls rose by 130K in January. Private hiring increased by 172K, while government payrolls fell by 42K. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, below the Fed’s 2026 estimate of 4.5%.
UOB says stronger AI-driven momentum lifted Singapore’s Q4 2025 GDP, boosting 2025 growth and 2026 forecasts
Singapore’s 4Q25 GDP growth was revised up to 6.9% year on year and 2.1% quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted). This is higher than the advance estimates of 5.7% year on year and 1.9% quarter on quarter. The upgrade was driven by stronger manufacturing output, and better results in services and construction.
Full-year 2025 growth was also revised higher, to 5.0% from 4.8%. This points to a stronger growth backdrop heading into 2026.
Growth Outlook And Key Drivers
The Ministry of Trade and Industry raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast range to 2.0% to 4.0%, from 1.0% to 3.0% previously. The research note links this better outlook to continued AI-related activity and updates to the government’s medium-term growth assumptions. With the government now forecasting 2026 growth of “2.0 to 4.0 per cent,” we should position for continued bullish momentum in Singapore-linked assets. The stronger-than-expected growth at the end of 2025, led by the AI sector, supports this view. This revision is an important signal for our strategies in the weeks ahead. We see an opportunity to increase long exposure through Straits Times Index (STI) futures, as corporate earnings often follow stronger economic growth. Recent data supports this: the January 2026 manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion at 50.8. We can also buy call options on the STI, targeting a move toward the 3,500 level by the end of the quarter. The strong 2025 GDP results, including 5.0% full-year growth, should also support the Singapore dollar. Core inflation in January 2026 edged up to 3.1%, giving the Monetary Authority of Singapore little reason to ease its gradual currency appreciation policy. We should consider buying SGD against USD using futures or options.Volatility Positioning And Premium Strategies
This clearer and more positive economic picture may reduce market volatility, as uncertainty fades. In past periods of steady growth, such as 2017 and 2018, implied volatility on STI options often declined for months. As a result, selling out-of-the-money puts on major Singapore blue-chip stocks or index ETFs could be a sensible way to collect premium. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.He took profits at the 7,000–7,020 resistance zone, then swift premarket Nasdaq shorts rewarded nimble, real-time followers
The S&P 500 rallied into overhead resistance at 7,000–7,020 yesterday, and traders took profits on swing longs in that zone.
In today’s premarket, the focus shifted to quick intraday setups, including a short Nasdaq trade. The trade worked, but it required fast execution and real-time updates through email and premium Telegram channels.
Market Rejects Key Resistance
The main catalyst was a strong jobs report. This highlights why daily views may need rapid updates as market conditions get tougher than in earlier periods, including the prior downside moves in gold and silver. 2026-02-12T02:02:31.590Z The market is clearly rejecting the S&P 500’s 7,000 resistance level, directly in response to the stronger-than-expected jobs data. The economy added 315,000 jobs last month, well above the 190,000 forecast. That makes near-term rate cuts look less likely. As the market reprices this shift, volatility is likely to rise. For derivatives traders, this calls for moving away from a simple long-only mindset and toward flexible, two-way positioning. One way to trade the reversal is to buy short-dated puts on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), since tech stocks tend to be most sensitive to changing rate expectations. Another idea is to sell call spreads just above 7,020 on the S&P 500 to take advantage of the resistance ceiling.Focus On Range Based Trading
This setup resembles the choppy market we saw in summer 2025, when strong economic data repeatedly tested the uptrend. Traders who stayed flexible—and didn’t fight the Fed’s “higher for longer” message—were the ones who did best. This is a period that favors active management over passive index holding. The stronger US dollar, now back above 105 on the DXY index, is pressuring commodities as expected. Gold’s drop below $2,850 an ounce is a key signal of that stress. A related derivatives approach is buying puts on major gold miner ETFs, which often fall faster than the underlying metal. As a result, the focus for the coming weeks is on defining a trading range rather than betting on an immediate breakout. Volatility, measured by the VIX, has moved off the lows and jumped back above 16 for the first time this year. This environment tends to suit strategies that benefit from swings inside a range, rather than a steady move higher. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.WSJ reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East amid Trump’s increased pressure on Iran
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is preparing a second US aircraft carrier in case it needs to deploy to the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln is already in the region, and officials said an order for a second carrier could come within hours.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he was considering sending a second carrier to increase pressure on Tehran during nuclear talks. Officials quoted in the report said no formal order had been issued, and plans could still change.
Carrier Deployment And Nuclear Talks
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he met with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but said there was no final outcome. He said he pushed to keep talks with Iran going to see if a deal can still be reached. Trump also mentioned a past strike called “Midnight Hammer” and warned Iran to act more “reasonable and responsible.” The report connected the carrier discussion to rising tensions in the Middle East. The article also defined the market terms “risk-on” and “risk-off.” It said “risk-on” often boosts stocks, most commodities (except gold), commodity-linked currencies, and cryptocurrencies. “Risk-off” usually supports bonds, gold, and safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc. We remember that in early 2025, reports of possible US military escalation against Iran drove major market anxiety. Talk of deploying a second aircraft carrier, along with tough language on nuclear negotiations, pointed to a serious geopolitical risk. News like this often triggers a “risk-off” mood among investors.How Traders Position For Risk Off
This means traders should be ready for a flight to safety if similar headlines return in the coming weeks. In a risk-off environment, investors focus more on avoiding losses than chasing gains. They often sell riskier assets like stocks and shift into safer ones. In 2025, the data showed how quickly markets can move. West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped more than 10% in two weeks and briefly rose above $90 per barrel on fears of supply disruptions. At the same time, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—often called the market’s “fear gauge”—rose by nearly 40%, showing broad uncertainty. These are the kinds of sharp moves traders should expect. For derivatives traders, this may point to call options on safe-haven currencies. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc often attract capital during periods of global stress. Trades can be structured to benefit if the JPY/USD or CHF/USD pairs strengthen. Gold is another key asset to watch because it is a classic safe haven. Long exposure through gold futures or options may make sense, since gold often rises when geopolitical tensions increase. Historically, Middle East events have often been strong drivers for the metal. On the other side, traders should be careful with currencies tied closely to global growth, such as the Australian Dollar. A conflict could disrupt trade and reduce commodity demand, which may create an opportunity to use put options on the AUD. This approach aims to profit if investors move away from assets linked to economic growth. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Seasonal patterns suggest a March peak, while the Nasdaq 100 has stalled around early October 2025 levels
The NASDAQ100 has moved sideways for the last three to four months and is trading near its early October 2025 level. That makes Elliott Wave (EW) analysis less reliable, so we also use other indicators in a “weight of the evidence” approach.
In mid-term election years, the average seasonal pattern shows a bottom on 5 February, a peak around 15 February, a mild dip near 21 February, then a rise to an 18 March high. After that, the average path trends lower until October. The NASDAQ100 bottomed on 6 February and then started a rally.
Seasonal Pattern And Near Term Context
The updated EW count still points to 26608. This comes from a 161.8% extension of the 2020–2021 Wave-1, measured from the 2020 low (Wave-2). The prior peak on 29 October was about 500 points below that extension. Wave-1 rose from 6772 to 16765 (9993 points). Wave-2 bottomed on 13 October 2022 at 10440. The Wave-3 target is 10440 + 9992 × 1.618 = 26608. Bear warning levels are 24854, 25112, 25418, 25840, and 26182. Because the NASDAQ100 has been range-bound for months, it has made little progress. It is still near levels first seen in early October 2025. With no clear trend, forecasting is harder, so we rely on multiple tools to build a clearer view. This kind of “stuck” market often leads to a larger, more decisive move. So far, price action has tracked the typical mid-term election year seasonal pattern well. That template called for a bottom around February 5. We saw the year’s low on February 6. The same model suggests the current rally may peak around February 15. The rally has also been helped by recent economic data. Core inflation (PCE) eased to 2.7%, slightly below expectations. That gave the market support in the short term and fits the seasonal setup. In similar cases, like the market response to inflation data in late 2024, good news often helped drive a final push higher before a broader turn.Positioning And Levels To Watch
For derivatives traders, this points to a very short-term bullish bias over the next few days. Traders could consider short-dated call options or bull call spreads to target a final move higher into the February 15–21 window. The key point is that this move likely marks the end of a rally phase, not the start of a lasting uptrend. The bigger opportunity may come next. The seasonal pattern points to a more meaningful decline after a final high around March 18. That also fits the broader Elliott Wave view, which expects a multi-month correction once this rally completes. This decline could run into October. Traders may want to get ready to shift to a bearish strategy in the coming weeks. That could include buying puts with April or May expirations to target the start of the expected downturn. Bear put spreads can also help position for a sustained move lower while limiting risk. On the upside, the key levels are the bear warning zones: 24854 up to 26182. As price moves into these areas, it may make sense to cut bullish exposure and begin building bearish positions. How the market behaves at these levels can offer important clues about when a reversal may begin. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.January US payrolls rise 130K despite forecasts; unemployment falls to 4.3% as dollar weakens
The US January Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a gain of 130K jobs. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings were unchanged at 3.7% over the past 12 months.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 96.80 and was slightly lower on the day. USD/JPY was near 152.80 and slipped toward a two-week low after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won an election.
Key Moves Across Major Markets
AUD/USD traded near 0.7130 after hitting a three-year high, following China’s CPI release. EUR/USD was around 1.1880, down from a one-week high. GBP/USD was near 1.3640 ahead of the UK flash GDP report for Q4. Gold traded near $5,092 and edged higher. Next up: UK flash GDP (Q4) on Thursday 12. On Friday 13, markets will watch RBNZ Inflation Expectations (Q1), Swiss January CPI, Eurozone flash GDP (Q4), and US January CPI. Central banks were the biggest gold buyers in 2022, adding 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion, according to the World Gold Council. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. Its price can also react to interest rates and geopolitical risk. A year ago (February 2025), the market would not buy the US Dollar even after a solid jobs report. Traders expected the Federal Reserve to turn dovish later in the year. Today the setup looks very different: the January 2026 jobs report showed a huge gain of 353,000 jobs and sticky wage growth of 4.5%. That forced traders to price out near-term rate cuts and pushed the Dollar Index up to around 104.00. Gold’s behavior has also changed. A year ago it was rising toward an unusual $5,092 level, ignoring economic data and trading mainly as a safe haven. Now, with the US Dollar and Treasury yields firm, gold is under pressure and trading in a more typical range near $2,030. Because of this, options strategies that bet against a big upside breakout—such as selling out-of-the-money calls—may work as long as the Fed stays credibly hawkish.Trading Implications And Event Risk
In early 2025, the Australian Dollar was near multi-year highs around 0.7130, supported by strong data from China. Today, AUD/USD is struggling near 0.6530, weighed down by a strong US Dollar and weaker conditions in China. This suggests that any near-term strength in the Aussie could be a chance to look for bearish entries. Last year’s gap between strong data and weak Dollar demand is a reminder that expectations matter. With US CPI due this Friday, volatility could rise sharply. Given how sensitive the market is to inflation, buying options such as straddles on major pairs like EUR/USD can be a practical way to trade the event, since it can profit from a large move in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After strong US payrolls data, Treasury yields rise broadly, pushing 10-year yields higher and reducing expectations of Fed rate cuts
US Treasury yields rose across the curve on Wednesday. The 10-year note climbed nearly 1.5 basis points to 4.155%, after a stronger US jobs report lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts.
The 10-year yield bounced back from around 4.125% after the BLS reported that January nonfarm payrolls increased by 130K, above the 70K forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, below the Fed’s 4.5% full-year estimate.
Jobs Data Reshapes Rate Cut Outlook
Markets no longer expected a March rate cut. They priced in 27 basis points of easing through July 2026. For 2026, markets priced two cuts, with the first expected in July. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said rate cuts could allow inflation to stay higher for longer. He said policy should stay restrictive if inflation is near 3%. The US Dollar Index fell 0.14% to 96.75. Five-year breakeven inflation eased to 2.47% from 2.5%, and the 10-year measure slipped to 2.32% from 2.35%. Initial Jobless Claims and Fed speeches are due on Thursday. On Friday, January CPI is expected to cool. Headline and core inflation are forecast to fall year on year, from 2.7% and 2.6% to 2.5%.Trading Setup Around CPI And Volatility
After the strong January jobs report, the Fed has a clear reason to delay rate cuts. The market now prices the first cut for July 2026. That is a big change from a few weeks ago, when a spring cut still looked possible. This “higher for longer” backdrop suggests ongoing stress in short-term rate markets. Attention now turns to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could drive sharp moves. Volatility trades may fit this setup. For example, options strategies like straddles on rate-sensitive ETFs such as TLT can benefit from a large move in either direction. With a strong labor market but falling inflation expectations, the market looks uncertain. This CPI print could force a clearer trend. Recent history also argues for caution. Inflation stayed sticky through much of 2025, even after earlier aggressive rate hikes. The Fed kept rates steady for most of last year, disappointing traders who expected an early pivot. That experience shows the risk of betting too early on rate cuts, since strong data can quickly change market pricing. Newer data supports a more hawkish Fed view. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows the probability of a July rate cut falling from above 70% last month to about 52% after the jobs report. In addition, last week’s ISM Services PMI came in strong at 53.8, showing continued expansion in the largest part of the economy. This backdrop may favor a flatter yield curve. Short-term rates may stay firm, while longer-term yields could drift lower on disinflation hopes. Traders could use SOFR futures to position for a narrower 2-year/10-year spread in the weeks ahead. With the VIX near 13.5, VIX calls are relatively cheap and can hedge against an equity decline if inflation prints hotter than expected. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The US 10-year note auction yield edged up to 4.177% from 4.173% earlier
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction yield rose to 4.177%, up from 4.173% at the previous auction.
That is an increase of 0.004 percentage points versus the prior auction.
Inflation Fears Persist
We see this small rise in the 10-year auction yield as a sign that inflation concerns remain. The January 2026 CPI reading of 3.1% has clearly made markets more cautious about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. This auction result suggests bond investors want a higher premium to compensate for that uncertainty. This backdrop argues for preparing for higher volatility in the coming weeks. Implied volatility for interest rate swaptions has already moved higher, and we expect the VIX to rise from its current level of 18.5. We are considering VIX call spreads, or straddles on major bond ETFs, to take advantage of the expected increase in market swings. For traders who use interest rate derivatives directly, it may be time to consider paying fixed on swaps. This positions for a scenario where short-term rates stay higher for longer, or move higher. Shorting Treasury futures—especially in the 2- to 5-year part of the curve—also looks appealing as a hedge if the Fed turns more hawkish. In equity options, higher yields can pressure growth stocks. We are increasing protective put positions on technology and consumer discretionary benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100. At the same time, we are looking at call options on financials, since banks may benefit if the yield curve steepens. In context, this marks a shift away from the disinflation trend that helped push yields lower through much of 2025. That calmer period now appears to be ending as markets price in a more complex economic outlook. We believe the straightforward trades from last year are largely gone, and a more defensive, tactical approach is now needed.Defensive Positioning Ahead
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Broad yen buying keeps USD/JPY under pressure, extending a three-session slide below daily SMA levels
USD/JPY fell for a third straight day as the Yen stayed supported after Japan’s election result. The pair traded near 152.84, close to a two-week low, and is down more than 2.5% this week.
The Yen gained support after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election win, which eased political uncertainty. The US Dollar also struggled to hold gains even after a strong US jobs report. The Dollar Index hovered near 96.75 after a brief jump to 97.27.
Bearish Technical Setup
The technical picture has turned bearish after USD/JPY dropped below key daily moving averages. RSI is near 35, and Average True Range (14) is about 1.38. A break below 152.00 could put the 200-day SMA near 150.50 in focus. A move under 150.00 could open the door to 148.00, the 1.618 Fibonacci level. On a bounce, 153.69 (78.6% retracement) and 154.84 (61.8% retracement) are key levels. The 100-day SMA is around 154.60. A daily close above 154.84 could shift attention to the 50-day SMA at 156.27. The Yen is influenced by Japan’s economy, Bank of Japan policy, Japan–US yield spreads, and overall risk sentiment. The BoJ ran an ultra-loose policy from 2013 to 2024, then started moving away from it in 2024.USDJPY Downside Strategy
With the Yen stronger after the election, the focus should be on strategies that benefit if USD/JPY falls. The new government looks stable, which points to a clearer and more predictable policy outlook. Markets appear to welcome this, and it marks a clear change from the uncertainty seen through much of 2025. The US Dollar’s failure to rally on strong jobs data supports the view that the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance is still the main driver. Last week’s January US CPI came in at 2.8%, below expectations. This raised the odds of a mid-year rate cut, with futures now pricing the probability at over 70%. This differs from the Bank of Japan, which is expected to keep slowly unwinding the loose policy of the past decade. For derivatives, this setup favors buying USD/JPY put options. With the pair now below key moving averages, there is room for a move toward the 200-day SMA near 150.50 in the coming weeks. Puts with a 152.00 strike look like a primary way to position for the downtrend. In late 2024, Ministry of Finance intervention helped push the Yen stronger. This move looks different because it is supported by a shift in fundamentals, with policy paths starting to converge. Wider daily swings also suggest put spreads may be a better choice. They can reduce the cost of higher option premiums while still keeping downside exposure. Discipline is key, and the resistance levels above should be watched closely. A daily close back above 154.84 would suggest bearish momentum is weakening and would require a reassessment of short positions. Until then, the simplest path still appears lower for the pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Despite stronger US jobs data, equities retreated as non-AI tech struggled and optimism faded quickly
US January nonfarm payrolls came in at 130K versus a 70K consensus, nearly double expectations. After an early gain, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.25% by lunchtime, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were mostly flat.
Payroll growth improved from December’s revised 48K, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. Markets pushed expectations for the next US rate cut from June to July. A Federal Reserve official also suggested keeping policy restrictive as inflation moves closer to 3%.
