Silver (XAG/USD) traded near $82.60 per troy ounce in early European trading on Monday, rising for a second straight day. Prices tested the top of a descending wedge. Resistance sits near $84.50, close to the nine-day EMA at $84.66. The 14-day RSI rose slightly to 47, pointing to more stable momentum. Silver stayed above the 50-day EMA at $79.91 but remained below the falling nine-day EMA, which is still limiting near-term gains.

Key Technical Levels And Scenarios

A break back above the nine-day EMA could open the door to $121.66, the all-time high set on 29 January. If the short-term ceiling holds, price could retest $79.91. A daily close below that level may shift attention to $64.08, the eight-week low posted on 6 February, and then to the lower wedge boundary near $59.10. Silver can move on geopolitical risks, recession concerns, interest rates, and the US Dollar because XAG/USD is priced in dollars. Other factors include investment demand (coins, bars, and ETFs), mining supply, recycling, and industrial use in electronics and solar. Demand trends in the US, China, and India also matter. Technically, silver is still tightening inside a descending wedge and is trading around $82.60. The next key test is the upper boundary near $84.50. A clear break above this level could signal a stronger upward move. This is a level traders should watch closely, as it may set direction over the next few weeks. A potential breakout also aligns with improving industrial-metal fundamentals. Global manufacturing PMI data for January 2026 showed a modest but positive expansion for the first time in six months, led by improving demand in Asia. This continues the pattern that started in late 2025 and supports steady industrial demand for silver in electronics and solar panels.

Options Strategies And Risk Management

If you expect a bullish breakout, one approach is to buy call options with a strike near $85.00 and an expiry in March or April 2026. This provides leveraged exposure if silver clears resistance and starts a larger rally. With an upside reference near the $121.66 record high, traders could also consider a long futures position once $84.50 is firmly broken. Caution is still needed. If silver fails to break resistance, it could slide back toward the 50-day average at $79.91. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened, up nearly 1.2% since the stronger-than-expected January 2026 jobs report, which can weigh on silver. A drop below the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal. The gold-to-silver ratio is another useful reference point. It is currently high at around 88. A similar setup appeared in mid-2025, before silver later outperformed gold the next quarter. Today’s elevated ratio suggests silver may still look undervalued, which could draw buyers looking for a catch-up move. If price rejects the upper wedge boundary and breaks below $79.91 support, traders may look at buying put options. This can help protect against further downside and may benefit if silver retests $64.08. With the market at a key technical turning point, using tight stop-loss orders on new positions is important. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY slipped to around 153.15 in early European trading on Wednesday, with the yen strengthening past 153.00. The move followed the general election. Demand for the yen rose as money flowed into Japanese equities. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at a record high for the third day in a row on Wednesday. Foreign investors bought more Japanese shares, which increased yen demand and pushed USD/JPY lower.

Fiscal Optimism And Market Focus

Traders are also pricing in expectations that Japan’s PM, Takaichi, may take a more fiscally disciplined approach. Attention now turns to the US January jobs report, due later on Wednesday. The release was delayed slightly after a four-day US government shutdown. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 70K in January, after a 50K gain in December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.4%. Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to slow to 3.6% from 3.8%. Moves in the yen often track Bank of Japan policy, Japan–US yield spreads, and shifts in risk appetite. The BoJ’s ultra-loose stance from 2013 to 2024 weighed on the yen. The shift away from that policy in 2024 has supported the currency.

Positioning For Jobs Data Volatility

The Japanese yen has strong momentum, helped by fiscal optimism and steady equity inflows. Ministry of Finance data showed foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese equities for a fifth straight week. They bought more than ¥800 billion, helping lift the Nikkei 225 to new highs. This yen support may last as long as the positive mood continues. The key risk today is the US jobs report, which could trigger sharp price swings. With consensus at just 70K—and with many 2025 reports coming in above 150K—the chance of an upside surprise looks meaningful. One way to position for more yen strength, while limiting downside if US data is strong, is to buy short-dated JPY call options. This near-term move also fits the broader shift since the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in 2024. That decision started to narrow the gap between US and Japanese bond yields. A smaller yield gap tends to pressure USD/JPY. If the BoJ keeps moving toward policy normalization, the longer-term case for a stronger yen stays in place. It is also important to remember the yen’s role as a safe-haven currency, which can help support its value during periods of stress. Any unexpected global market shock in the coming weeks could boost yen demand, even without changes in Japan’s domestic outlook. That remains another potential tailwind for long JPY positions using futures or options. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Rabobank analysts say Europe is changing its geoeconomic strategy while dealing with a complex relationship with the United States. The report says the US is likely to use the Munich Security Conference to try to repair strained ties with the EU. Europe has agreed to join the US plan on critical minerals. This limits Europe’s scope for strategic autonomy. The European Parliament has also agreed to move ahead with an EU–US trade deal. EU capitals say cutting out US tech is not realistic. Separately, US-backed start-ups won a major German contract for military drones. Some supporters of the Mercosur deal are said to be worried about moving too quickly. The European Commission is expected to announce new security rules in March on access to public funding. These rules are meant to shut out Chinese firms in particular. The report also warns that the Munich talks could go badly, as they did last year. It says the US may respond strongly to recent EU moves against US tech firms and to claims of election interference. A conference report calls Trump a “demolition man” and says “most of Europe is watching the US’ descent into ‘competitive authoritarianism’ with rising concern or even horror”. The US ambassador to NATO said the US wants Europe to take primary responsibility for European defence as soon as possible, not only when it feels ready. The report mentions a short list of EU geostrategic options if Munich triggers a new crisis. The next Munich Security Conference is shaping up as a major make-or-break event for markets. It could either reset EU–US relations or trigger a significant new crisis. We can already see this uncertainty in the options market, where traders are using options to position for either outcome. The VSTOXX, Europe’s main volatility index, has risen to above 19 from lows near 15 earlier this year. This suggests traders are buying protection and preparing for a large move. This tension will affect the EUR/USD exchange rate. If the conference goes well and supports the transatlantic alliance, the euro would likely strengthen. If there is a public clash, the euro could drop sharply. One-month implied volatility for EUR/USD has risen to 7.5%. This shows options traders expect a wider-than-usual trading range in the coming weeks. We see a clear opportunity in the US push for Europe to manage its own security. That shift makes higher and sustained defence spending more likely and more lasting. Recent data supports this: new orders for European defence firms rose 18% year on year in the final quarter of 2025, and Germany’s 2026 budget is now set above 2.1% of GDP. This makes call options on major European defence contractors and related ETFs an attractive strategy. The EU–US trade deal, and ongoing tension over US tech companies, also create risks for European industrial and automotive stocks. Markets reacted badly to political messaging during the 2025 conference, which caused a short but sharp drop in the DAX. As a result, short-term put options on indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50 look like a sensible hedge for equity portfolios through the end of February. We should also watch for the EU’s new security measures in March. These are meant to limit Chinese access to public contracts. They are likely to create clear winners and losers across European green tech, 5G, and infrastructure. This may open the door for pairs trades: favouring European firms that are well placed to win these contracts, and avoiding those with supply chains that depend heavily on China.

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Commerzbank said the delayed January US jobs report is unlikely to cause big moves in the US Dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to be around 70,000, and the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.4%. The bank said even a result near 60,000 would still match a clear trend: the labour market is weakening, but not collapsing. In its view, that would not justify major changes to interest-rate expectations based on the Federal Reserve’s employment mandate.

Dollar Risks Beyond The Jobs Report

The bank said key data releases can still move the Dollar in the short term. However, it said the main medium-term risk is uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh, and worries about the Fed’s independence. It said the situation around Fed independence may not be clear until spring. The article noted it was produced with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. The next US labour market report is not expected to trigger major Dollar moves. Even a Nonfarm Payrolls result around 70,000—similar to the latest January 2026 release, which printed a modest 85,000—would simply confirm an ongoing slowdown in hiring. That would be unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path in a meaningful way. The bigger issue for the US Dollar is political uncertainty. In 2025, debates about the Fed’s future and its independence created sharp market swings. Those concerns have not gone away and remain the biggest medium-term risk for the Dollar.

Positioning For Later Spring Volatility

For traders, this means short-term swings around data releases can be misleading. With the VIX currently subdued near 15, it may be worth considering longer-dated options to hedge against a sudden rise in currency volatility later this spring. This is less about betting on the next jobs number and more about insuring against unresolved political risks. Important data will still drive short-term Dollar moves, but these are secondary. The core risk is still the Fed’s independence, which continues to hang over the greenback. Markets may get more clarity over the next few months, making political headlines almost as important as economic data. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices rose in the Philippines on Wednesday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at PHP 9,498.45 per gram, up from PHP 9,446.49 on Tuesday. Gold increased to PHP 110,788.50 per tola from PHP 110,182.00 a day earlier. Other listed rates were PHP 94,984.87 for 10 grams and PHP 295,434.70 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Local Gold Prices

FXStreet calculates gold prices in the Philippines by converting global prices using the USD/PHP exchange rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication. They are for reference only, since local prices may vary. Gold is widely used to store value, as a form of payment, and for jewellery. Many investors also buy gold as a safe-haven asset and as protection against inflation or a weaker currency. Central banks hold more gold than any other group. They use it to spread risk across their reserves. In 2022, they bought 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion—the largest yearly purchase since records began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets. Prices can shift because of geopolitical events, recession worries, interest rates, and moves in the US Dollar.

Market Forces Shaping Gold In Early 2026

As of February 11, 2026, the recent rise in gold prices is happening in a mixed global market. A stronger US dollar usually weighs on gold, but higher geopolitical risk increases demand for safe-haven assets. With these forces pulling in opposite directions, price swings may stay sharp in the weeks ahead. One key driver is US Federal Reserve policy. After several rate cuts in 2025, the January 2026 inflation report surprised markets, with inflation rising to 2.8%. In response, the Fed signaled it may pause further cuts. Because gold does not pay interest, it often struggles when rates are expected to stay steady or stop falling, since other assets can offer better returns. The US Dollar is also limiting gold’s upside. The Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered to around 104.50 after weakening in late 2025. When the dollar is strong, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can reduce demand and slow rallies. Even so, gold has support from its role as protection against instability and currency weakness. Central banks appear to be continuing the heavy buying seen in 2025, which helps put a floor under prices. This also fits the long-term trend shown by past record purchases, such as the 1,136 tonnes added in 2022. For derivatives traders, this kind of market can mean volatility is priced incorrectly. Instead of betting only on direction, trades that benefit from a big move either way—such as long straddles or strangles—may work well. The main goal is to be positioned for a breakout from the current range, which is being tightened by these competing forces. Traders with large equity exposure may also use gold derivatives to hedge. Buying gold call options can be a relatively low-cost way to protect against a sudden market drop caused by geopolitical shocks or an unexpected recession. This can add protection without selling other risk assets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF gave back small gains and traded near 0.7660 in Asian hours on Wednesday, drifting toward 0.7650. The pair weakened as the US Dollar fell ahead of the delayed US jobs report due later Wednesday. Markets expect January Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 70,000. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 4.4%. US Retail Sales were flat at $735 billion in December, after a 0.6% rise in November. This missed forecasts for a 0.4% increase.

Us Data And Fed Expectations

Year over year, Retail Sales rose 2.4%. Total sales for October–December 2025 increased 3.0% (±0.4%) versus the same period a year earlier. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in March. A first cut is priced for June, with a possible second cut in September. The Swiss Franc also found support from safe-haven demand. This came amid concerns related to artificial intelligence and reports that Chinese regulators may guide firms to limit exposure to US Treasuries. Switzerland’s January inflation report is due Friday, with annual inflation expected at 0.1%. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel pointed to low inflation alongside a 0% policy rate. The SNB target range remains 0–2%. The Swiss Franc was pegged to the euro from 2011 to 2015. When the peg was removed, the Franc jumped by more than 20%. Today’s backdrop is very different from early 2025. The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 225,000 jobs in January, reported last week. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 3.6%. That is a much firmer picture than the modest 70,000 gain that was expected a year ago.

Trading Implications And Options Strategies

This strength, along with a sticky Consumer Price Index at 3.2%, has shifted expectations for the Fed. Last year, markets looked for rate cuts by June. Now, they see the Fed holding rates steady until at least the third quarter. This change supports renewed US Dollar strength in the near term. At the same time, the Swiss Franc is still drawing some safe-haven inflows because global risks remain. However, Switzerland’s inflation came in at a manageable 1.4% last week, giving the Swiss National Bank room to act. This creates a policy split, where the SNB may cut rates well before the Federal Reserve. For derivatives traders, this divergence points to a possible upward bias in USD/CHF. Buying USD/CHF call options that expire in one to two months can offer a defined-risk way to position for Dollar strength. The trade benefits if the pair rises, and the maximum loss is limited to the option premium. History also highlights tail risk. In 2015, volatility surged when the SNB suddenly removed the EUR peg. A repeat is not expected, but it shows the SNB can surprise markets. Because of that, selling cash-secured USD/CHF puts may also appeal to traders looking to collect premium, based on the view that a more hawkish Fed could limit downside in the pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices rose in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Gold traded at AED 596.78 per gram, up from AED 593.98 on Tuesday. The price per tola rose to AED 6,960.80 from AED 6,928.05 the previous day. Other prices listed were AED 5,967.87 for 10 grams and AED 18,562.06 per troy ounce. FXStreet calculates these prices by converting global gold prices into AED and adjusting for local units. The prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, though local rates can differ slightly. Central banks are the biggest holders of gold. They bought 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council. This was the largest annual purchase since records began. Gold is often seen as a store of value and is widely used in jewellery. Its price often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets like shares. Gold can also react to geopolitical tension, recession worries, and shifts in interest rates. It is priced in US dollars as XAU/USD, so changes in the dollar can affect gold. With gold only slightly higher, the market is sending mixed signals. This points to volatility as the main opportunity. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report for January 2026, with more than 280,000 jobs added, has supported the dollar. That dollar strength is a major headwind and may limit near-term gains in gold. The Federal Reserve meeting in January 2026 was also more hawkish than markets expected. As a result, traders have priced out rate cuts in the first half of the year. This has lifted implied volatility in gold options, especially in shorter-dated contracts. Many traders are buying puts to protect against a drop below the $1,980 per ounce support level if the Fed holds its position. At the same time, rising tensions in Eastern Europe are helping to support prices by keeping safe-haven demand in place. This backdrop reduces the chance of a sharp sell-off and makes outright short trades riskier. More cautious traders are using low-cost call options to benefit if a sudden escalation pushes gold higher. Central-bank demand also matters. It was a key driver of the rally through 2024 and 2025. Data for the full year 2025 shows buying stayed strong, but slowed sharply from the record pace seen in 2023. That suggests one major source of support may be fading, which could make gold more sensitive to economic data. For the next few weeks, the most practical approach may be to trade the range rather than rely on a clear trend. One option is a long straddle, which means buying a call and a put with the same strike price and expiry. This strategy can profit from a large move in either direction. The next US inflation report will be crucial. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it would likely strengthen the dollar and could trigger the next move lower in gold.

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GBP/JPY fell for a third day and hit its lowest level since 19 December during Asian trading on Wednesday. It traded in the mid-209.00s, down nearly 0.50% on the day. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide lower house election victory on Sunday under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. This cut domestic political uncertainty and boosted expectations of more fiscal stimulus and further Bank of Japan rate rises. The Japanese yen strengthened, which added pressure to the pair. Concerns about possible official action to support the currency also weighed on GBP/JPY. Together, these factors extended the pair’s weekly decline. Sterling weakened as UK political uncertainty grew around Prime Minister Keir Starmer after the resignation of his chief aide, Morgan McSweeney. Calls for Starmer to step down from the leader of the Scottish Labour Party increased the uncertainty. At the same time, Bank of England guidance continues to point to future rate cuts. On the charts, GBP/JPY broke below the 50-day simple moving average for the first time since November 2025. This move leaves the pair vulnerable to a drop below 209.00 and towards support at 208.20–208.15. GBP/JPY is showing a clear breakdown and is now trading in the mid-209.00s after three straight daily declines. The main drivers—a stronger yen and a weaker pound—suggest the downtrend may have further room to run. Traders may consider positioning for more downside in the coming weeks. The Bank of Japan’s hawkish tone is supported by strong domestic data. Japan’s national core CPI for January 2026, reported last week, came in at 2.8%, well above the central bank’s target. This sharply contrasts with other major central banks and creates a policy gap that favors the yen. The LDP’s landslide win on Sunday also adds to the sense of political stability behind the move. In contrast, the British pound is under pressure from rising political uncertainty around Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership. This comes as the economy struggles: Q4 2025 GDP figures released last month confirmed the UK entered a technical recession after a 0.2% contraction. These conditions support the Bank of England’s recent signals that rate cuts are getting closer. With this bearish outlook, buying GBP/JPY put options is a simple way to benefit from a continued decline. Consider puts with strike prices below 209.00, such as 208.50 or 208.00, which align with the support levels mentioned. A bear put spread can also reduce the upfront cost. Implied volatility is rising because of political headlines and fears of currency intervention, which makes options more expensive. The Cboe/JPX JPY Volatility Index recently reached its highest level since August 2025. In this environment, option spreads can be a better way to control costs while keeping downside exposure. Another approach is to short GBP/JPY futures contracts for direct exposure to falling prices. For risk control, consider a stop-loss just above the recently broken 50-day moving average, currently near 210.20. This level—where the pair had held since last November—now stands out as a key resistance area.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to around 96.65 in early European trading on Wednesday after weakening during Asian hours. US Retail Sales were unchanged at $735 billion in December. This followed a 0.6% rise in November and missed forecasts for a 0.4% increase. Year over year, Retail Sales rose 2.4% in December, down from 3.3% previously.

Markets Focus Shifts To Jobs Data

Markets are now watching the delayed US January employment report due on Wednesday. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 70,000, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.4%. The US Dollar is the world’s most traded currency. It accounts for more than 88% of global foreign exchange turnover, or about $6.6 trillion per day in 2022. It became the main reserve currency after World War II, and it stopped being backed by gold after the 1971 Bretton Woods change. Federal Reserve policy strongly influences the dollar through its goals of price stability and maximum employment, including a 2% inflation target. Quantitative easing (QE) increases credit by buying bonds and can weaken the dollar. Quantitative tightening (QT) stops reinvesting maturing bonds and can support the dollar. In early 2025, the US Dollar Index was under pressure and slipped toward 96.50 after December 2024 retail sales came in flat. That weak reading increased expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to cut interest rates. At the time, markets focused almost entirely on the January 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was expected to show only 70,000 new jobs. The jobs report was indeed weak. During spring 2025, the Fed began cutting interest rates, starting in March. This matched market expectations and pushed the Dollar Index down further, breaking below 94.00 by mid-year. A similar example is the Fed’s 2019 pivot, when a move toward rate cuts limited dollar strength and supported risk assets.

Derivative Strategies For A Weaker Dollar

In that 2025 setting, the best derivative strategies focused on ongoing dollar weakness and higher volatility. Traders who bought put options on the dollar, or call options on currencies such as the Euro and Swiss Franc, benefited from the move. Uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s decision also lifted bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE index. This favored traders who bought options rather than holding outright short positions. Today, February 11, 2026, some similar signals are appearing as the dollar trades near 101.50 after a strong run. Recent PMI data has weakened. The ISM Services index fell from 53.4 to 51.2, and weekly jobless claims are starting to rise. These are similar to the early warning signs seen in late 2024. This may suggest the cycle is turning again, creating conditions for a possible Fed policy shift later this year. Because of this, derivative traders may want to revisit the 2025 playbook in the coming weeks. That means tracking key employment and inflation releases closely for any further weakening. It may also make sense to start building positions that could benefit from a weaker dollar, such as buying out-of-the-money puts on the UUP ETF or using bearish risk reversals to help fund long-volatility positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD climbed to a near two-week high during Wednesday’s Asian session, trading around 0.6065 after a small dip the day before. The move came as the US Dollar stayed weak ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Markets are watching the NFP release for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps, with rate-cut expectations stretching into 2026. Worries about the Fed’s independence also kept the Dollar near its lowest level in more than a week.

Risk Appetite Supports The Kiwi

Better risk sentiment lowered demand for the US Dollar and supported the New Zealand Dollar. This helped offset softer inflation data from China, which signaled weak household demand and ongoing deflation risks. China’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% year on year in January, down from 0.8% the month before. Producer prices fell 1.4% year on year, marking the 40th straight month of contraction. These China figures increased expectations for more fiscal and monetary support, which can boost antipodean currencies. However, New Zealand’s higher unemployment rate in Q4 2025 reduced the likelihood of tighter Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy and could limit further NZD/USD gains. NZD/USD is now testing a two-week high near 0.6065, driven mainly by broad US Dollar weakness. The key near-term catalyst is the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could trigger a sharp move. This setup may appeal to options traders looking to position for potential volatility.

Options Positioning Ahead Of Nfp

Bearish sentiment on the Dollar is tied to strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed funds futures currently price in an 85%+ chance of at least one rate cut by the Fed’s June 2026 meeting. This has pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) below 103.00, an important psychological support level. Several NFP reports in the second half of 2025 triggered sharp, multi-day reversals in major currency pairs. That history suggests option straddles—strategies that can profit from a large move in either direction—may be a sensible way to trade the event risk. A payrolls number that is far from the consensus forecast will likely shape the Dollar’s direction for the rest of February. The New Zealand Dollar also faces challenges that may limit upside. The rise in New Zealand’s unemployment rate to 4.3% in Q4 2025 has largely removed the case for Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hikes. Along with ongoing deflation pressure from China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, this suggests the Kiwi’s strength could be fragile. Given this backdrop, traders may consider buying near-term NZD/USD call options to take advantage of the current upward momentum into the NFP release. However, these positions should be hedged with put options or backed by a clear exit plan. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report would quickly challenge the rate-cut story and could send the pair sharply lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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