Argentina’s monthly consumer inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.8%
Argentina’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% month over month in January, up from 2.8% in the prior month.
This small rise suggests inflation pressures are not easing as fast as expected. That makes it harder to argue the central bank can start cutting rates in the second quarter. We should update our view and expect a more hawkish stance in the near term.
UBS’s Paul Donovan dismisses Trump’s tirades about Canada as noise amid bridge block threats and hockey jibes
US President Donald Trump posted comments on social media attacking Canada. His posts included threats to block the opening of a US-Canada bridge named after a Canadian hockey player. He also claimed that a Canada-China trade deal would end ice hockey in Canada.
UBS economist Paul Donovan said these outcomes are unlikely. He added that markets may treat the comments as noise.
He noted that several previously threatened tariffs did not happen. These included tariffs on US importers of goods from Iranian trading partners, 100% tariffs on US importers of Canadian goods, and 50% tariffs on US importers of Canadian aircraft.
The article says it was produced with help from an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
We have learned that political rhetoric often creates market noise, not real policy. From our early-2026 viewpoint, we can look back at analysis from 2025 about Trump’s social media posts targeting Canada. The main point was simple: even when the threats sounded extreme, many tariffs never happened. Over time, markets learned to ignore much of the bluster.
This headline-driven volatility creates repeat opportunities, especially as new geopolitical tensions build today. During the 2018–2019 trade disputes, the VIX often jumped above 25% after tariff headlines, then fell back in the following weeks as details were delayed or softened. Current data shows implied volatility in the semiconductor sector (SOXL options) is up 15% over the last two weeks on little more than diplomatic chatter, which looks similar to past overreactions.
Selling Volatility Into Headline Spikes
Over the coming weeks, this supports a strategy of selling volatility after it spikes. When trade headlines or political standoffs push implied volatility higher, selling out-of-the-money puts on affected indices like the SPX or QQQ can be profitable. Markets have often overpriced the real impact of these events, which leads to predictable options premium decay. Another approach is to use calendar spreads to keep risk more defined. You can sell a front-month option to capture the elevated, fear-driven premium, while buying a longer-dated option with lower volatility. This can benefit as short-term panic fades and the volatility term structure normalizes. Overall, history suggests that aggressive trade rhetoric often has limited follow-through. A Peterson Institute for International Economics study covering 2018–2020 found that nearly one-third of threatened trade actions were never implemented, or were later reduced. Because of this, politically driven market dips may be less of a fundamental shift and more of a short-term chance to position against fear.Rhetoric Versus Policy Follow Through
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.VT Markets Returns to Money Expo Mexico 2026 in a Leading Titanium Sponsor Role
Mexico City, Mexico, 9 February 2026 — VT Markets will take part in Money Expo Mexico 2026 as a Titanium Sponsor, reinforcing its active role within one of Mexico’s most influential financial industry gatherings. The event will take place on 18–19 February 2026 at Centro Banamex, Mexico City, and is expected to welcome more than 6,000 financial professionals, traders, investors, fintech leaders, partners, and media representatives.
Money Expo Mexico 2026 builds on the momentum bringing together global and regional participants across finance, trading, investment, fintech, and blockchain. Designed as a high-impact exhibition and conference, the two-day event provides a platform for knowledge exchange, innovation showcases, and strategic networking, reflecting Mexico’s growing relevance within the regional and global financial ecosystem.
VT Markets returns in 2026 with an elevated presence as a Titanium Sponsor. Throughout the event, the firm will be exhibiting at Booth 3, where attendees will have the opportunity to engage directly with the brand, exchange professional insights, and explore perspectives on navigating today’s evolving and increasingly complex market environment.
VT Markets’ participation highlights its continued focus on collaboration with industry professionals and partners, the advancement of thought leadership through expert engagement, and a sustained commitment to trader education and professional development. By maintaining an active presence at Money Expo Mexico 2026, the brand continues to strengthen relationships, expand visibility, and contribute meaningfully to industry dialogue shaping the future of financial markets in Mexico and beyond. As anticipation builds toward the event, VT Markets’ involvement signals readiness to engage constructively, share expertise, and support sustainable growth across the regional and international financial community with clarity, responsibility, and long-term vision.
About VT Markets
VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries as of today. It has earned numerous international accolades including Best Online Trading and Fastest Growing Broker. In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets offers comprehensive access to over 1,000 financial instruments and clients benefit from a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile application.
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Gold slips 0.72% to $5,022, holds above $5,000 as softer US data lifts the dollar
Gold fell 0.72% to $5,022 on Tuesday. It stayed above $5,000 as the US Dollar held steady and traders cut short positions. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was unchanged at 96.78, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped five basis points to 4.149%.
US Retail Sales were weak. December sales were flat (0% month-on-month), down from 0.6% in November and below the 0.4% rise expected. The retail control group slipped -0.1% in December after 0.2% previously, and November data were revised lower.
Fed Cut Expectations Shift
Labour cost data also eased. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in Q4, down from 0.8% in Q3. Markets raised expected Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 from 56.5 basis points to 58.5 basis points. Focus now turns to the Nonfarm Payrolls report due Wednesday, 11 February. Forecasts call for 70K jobs in January versus 50K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.4%, and Kevin Hassett said the jobs number could be “slightly lower”. Gold has been trading in a $5,000–$5,100 range. Resistance sits at $5,100, then $5,200, $5,451, and near $5,600. Support is at $5,000, the 20-day SMA at $4,910, then $4,800 and $4,402. Gold’s recent dip, even with weaker economic data, suggests the market is cautious ahead of major news. Traders appear to be waiting for tomorrow’s January Nonfarm Payrolls report before making bigger moves. In this setup, it may be better to prepare for a breakout than to chase the current price.Options Market Range Strategies
Implied volatility is rising, as options markets expect a sharp move after the jobs report. That makes buying options expensive. Because of this, we are considering strategies that can profit if price stays in a range, such as selling strangles outside the $4,900–$5,150 zone. If the market reaction is mild, those positions could perform well. If payrolls come in well above the 70K forecast, it would challenge the market’s growing view that the Fed will deliver deep cuts. That could drive a quick US Dollar rally and pull gold lower to test the 20-day moving average near $4,910. A similar move happened in Q3 2025, when a strong jobs report briefly pushed back rate-cut expectations. If payrolls miss expectations, it would reinforce the weak retail sales and softer labour cost data. That would likely speed up bets on Fed easing. It could also be the catalyst that breaks gold out of its current range and lifts it above $5,100 resistance. If that happens, the path toward the January peak of $5,451 becomes clearer. No matter what tomorrow’s data show, the broader trend of central bank buying still supports prices. Official 2025 data showed central banks added a net 1,037 tonnes to reserves, the second-highest year on record for physical demand. This steady demand—especially from Asian central banks—should help limit any major sell-off. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.NBC analysts expect Fed rate cuts in March and June 2026 amid labour worries, solid growth and inflation
National Bank of Canada analysts expect the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts in March and June 2026. They see rising labour market risks, even as growth and inflation stay relatively firm. They also note that OIS markets have re-priced the odds of near-term cuts, and that the FOMC signalled a patient approach in January.
The analysts say a March cut could shift into the second quarter if non-farm payrolls do not weaken soon. They also say the window for easing is tight and likely short, before stronger GDP, renewed hiring, and higher inflation reappear.
Fed Cut Timing And Market Pricing
They expect long-term US Treasury yields to stay mostly range-bound through 2026. They add that Fed balance-sheet tightening is not a major concern, but they also do not expect long-term yields to drop very much. We think the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut rates, possibly as soon as March, but the outcome is still uncertain. The chance of a March cut implied by OIS markets has fallen from more than 75% last month to about 45% today. This shift followed recent data showing the economy is stronger than expected. Whether there is a March cut now depends largely on the next Non-Farm Payrolls report. The January report showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 215,000 jobs. That makes it harder to argue the labour market is weak enough to justify an immediate cut. If upcoming employment data does not soften quickly and clearly, the first cut will likely move into the second quarter. For derivatives traders, this creates a data-driven setup where short-term volatility may be priced too low. Options straddles on short-term interest rate futures could be one way to trade the next jobs report. This approach can benefit from a big move in either direction—either weaker data that supports a March cut or stronger data that delays it.Range Bound Long End Trades
Further out, we see only a small window for the Fed to ease policy. A similar pattern appeared in 2025, when early weakness was followed by renewed strength, which limited the scope for rate cuts. That suggests that even if cuts start in March or June, they may not last long. If this is right, long-term Treasury yields should stay range-bound through 2026. Traders may want to be cautious with positions that depend on a major bond rally. Selling volatility on longer-dated Treasury futures or ETFs, using strategies such as iron condors, could work well if yields remain inside a steady trading range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.AUD/USD slips as weak Australian sentiment pressures the AUD, while a softer USD limits losses ahead of US NFP and China CPI
AUD/USD slipped on Tuesday. It ended a two-day rally after weak Australian consumer sentiment hurt the Australian Dollar. The pair held near 0.7070, close to a three-year high.
The US Dollar stayed weak, which limited the fall in AUD/USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was steady near 96.80, close to a more than one-week low.
Australian Consumer Confidence Weakens
Westpac Consumer Confidence in Australia fell 2.6% in February. This was the third straight monthly drop, after a 1.7% fall in January. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points, to 3.85% from 3.60%. The next policy meeting is on March 16–17. In the US, weak Retail Sales data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy. Markets are pricing in about 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. Traders are now watching Wednesday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report and Friday’s US CPI data for clues on the timing of the first rate cut. China’s CPI data, due Wednesday, is also in focus because Australia has strong trade ties with China.Looking Back At The Key Shift
In early 2025, AUD/USD was near a three-year high. The main driver was the view that the US Federal Reserve was clearly moving toward rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence was weak, but markets focused more on a broadly softer US dollar. This kept the pair in a fragile balance. That view changed. The large Fed cuts expected in 2025 did not fully happen because inflation stayed higher than forecast. The US Consumer Price Index for January 2026 rose 3.1%, slightly above the 2.9% estimate. This “sticky” inflation supports the idea that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. That is a major shift from the mood a year earlier. In Australia, consumer worries also proved justified. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at 4.35% for more than a year to fight inflation. Official data also showed Australia’s economy grew only 1.5% in 2025. That was the slowest annual pace outside the pandemic since 2000. Slow growth limits how much the RBA can keep up with a more hawkish Fed. The China risk has also grown into a major headwind for the Australian dollar. China’s economy has underperformed. Its consumer prices fell again in January 2026, down 0.8% year over year for the fourth month in a row. Ongoing deflation points to weak domestic demand, which can hurt demand for Australia’s key exports. With the US economy staying resilient while Australia faces pressure from a weaker China, protecting against downside in AUD/USD looks sensible in the coming weeks. Traders may consider buying put options to hedge the risk of a break below key support. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads may also help if the pair’s upside is now limited. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/JPY slips to around 154.40 as weak US data weighs on the dollar and steadies the yen
USD/JPY trades near 154.40 on Tuesday, down 0.95% on the day. The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar weakens. At the same time, the Japanese Yen gets support from politics and comments from officials.
US consumption data suggest weaker demand. December Retail Sales were flat at 0.0% month-on-month, below the 0.4% forecast. On a year-on-year basis, sales rose 2.4%, down from 3.3% previously.
Retail Sales Detail And Market Implications
The Retail Sales control group fell 0.1% month-on-month, after rising 0.2% in November. Retail Sales excluding autos were also flat at 0.0% on the month, missing expectations. Labour data are mixed. The Employment Cost Index eased to 0.7% in Q4 from 0.8%. Meanwhile, the four-week average of ADP Employment Change rose slightly, but remains low. The US Dollar Index trades near a more than one-week low, extending a third straight session of losses. Markets are pricing about 50 basis points of rate cuts. Nonfarm Payrolls are due Wednesday, and CPI is due Friday. In Japan, political risk has eased after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party won 316 of 465 lower-house seats. Plans to fund tax cuts without adding public debt have reduced worries about fiscal slippage.BoJ Outlook And Yen Support
Japanese officials continue to say they are ready to act against excessive currency moves. HSBC still expects a 25-basis-point BoJ rate hike in July, but sees risks of an earlier move or an additional hike. After last year’s sharp drop in USD/JPY, the pair is still testing lower levels. It trades around 149.50 as of today, February 11, 2026. The US Dollar has weakened further after disappointing Retail Sales in December 2025. Soft data released since the start of the year has reinforced this trend. The US slowdown is becoming clearer, and it should shape strategy. January’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed only 135,000 new jobs, well below forecasts. The latest CPI report also showed core inflation cooling to a 2.9% annual rate. Together, these numbers confirm the disinflation trend and a cooling labour market that started in Q4 2025. As a result, futures markets now price a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the March meeting. Traders may consider positioning for lower US rates using options on SOFR futures. Another approach is to sell out-of-the-money calls on the US Dollar Index (DXY) to benefit from further Dollar weakness. In Japan, the story is strengthening. After Prime Minister Takaichi’s strong election win last year, attention has shifted to the Bank of Japan’s next step. Japan’s national core CPI for January, released last week, unexpectedly rose to 2.8%. This has increased speculation that the BoJ could move before July. This has driven a major change in expectations. Derivatives markets now show a greater than 50% chance of a BoJ rate hike by the April meeting, a sharp shift from a few months ago. This makes long JPY positions more appealing, either by holding JPY directly or by buying USD/JPY puts that expire in Q2. The widening policy gap between a dovish Fed and a more hawkish BoJ is raising currency volatility. Last week, implied volatility on USD/JPY options hit its highest level in more than a year. This echoes the opposite setup seen in 2022, when aggressive Fed hikes pushed the pair to multi-decade highs. In this environment, it is important to manage risk with option strategies that have clear limits. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The U.S. 3-year note auction yield slipped to 3.518% from 3.609% previously
The United States held an auction for 3-year Treasury notes. The yield came in at 3.518%.
That was below the prior 3-year note auction yield of 3.609%.
Fed Cut Expectations Strengthen
The move down to 3.518% shows the market is more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the next few months. A strong auction also suggests investors want to lock in today’s yields before they drop further. In our view, this points to the high-rate period of the last few years coming to an end. Recent data supports this outlook. Last week’s January Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation easing to 2.1%. That is close to the Fed’s target and reduces concerns about inflation returning. A recent jobs report also showed unemployment rising to 4.2%. Together, these figures make the case for easier Fed policy stronger. For rate traders, this supports long positions in Treasury futures, especially in the 2- to 5-year part of the curve. Instruments such as 2-Year Note (ZT) and 5-Year Note (ZF) futures may benefit if yields keep falling and the market prices in several rate cuts. These trades align with expectations for a more dovish Fed. A “soft landing”—cooling inflation without a deep recession—could also help equities. Lower borrowing costs often make stocks more attractive. That may support buying call options or futures on the S&P 500. This is a clear change from much of 2025, when recession worries shaped most debates about Fed policy.Volatility Strategies Gain Appeal
If the Fed delivers steady, gradual cuts, market volatility may fall. The VIX, recently near 14, could trend lower in a calm policy setting. Strategies that can benefit from lower volatility—such as selling VIX futures or writing covered calls on major indices—may now offer a better risk-reward setup. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Amid a clear downtrend, the US dollar keeps sliding against the Swiss franc from its 0.8102 peak
USD/CHF has been falling since the late-November 2025 peak near 0.8102. The daily chart shows a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. Price is still below the 50-day EMA (0.7873) and the 200-day EMA (0.8068).
The pair hit 0.7605 in late January. It then bounced toward 0.7800 in early February, but turned lower again. The drop from around 0.7950 has now made that area a resistance zone. Support remains focused near 0.7600.
Key Short Term Price Action
On 10 February, USD/CHF dipped to 0.7629 and later closed near 0.7665. Price tested 0.7650 and failed to hold above it. This level has acted as a pivot since late January. The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) is at 30.56/34.56. That is just above oversold, and there is still no clear bullish crossover. If price breaks below 0.7600, the next target is 0.7382. This comes from a measured move based on the broader decline that began from the 2022 highs. Key resistance levels include 0.7790 and the 50-day EMA near 0.7873. Swiss CPI data due on 13 February could lift volatility. The SNB is also watching the Franc closely, including the possibility of FX intervention to limit CHF strength. Last year, around February 2025, the market was strongly bearish as USD/CHF tested the 0.7600 support area. The downtrend was firm, and sellers quickly faded small rebounds. That setup pointed to more weakness in the months ahead.Shift In Market Regime
That break below 0.7600 did occur. The pair later formed a major low near the 0.7382 target by July 2025. The move was driven by the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in tightening as US Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% in Q2 2025. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank stayed hawkish to address stubbornly high domestic service prices. Over the last six months, USD/CHF has built a base and is trading near 0.7720. It is now sitting just above its 50-day moving average, which is starting to turn higher. Longer-term momentum has shifted from bearish to neutral, creating a different backdrop for traders. Dips below 0.7650 are now being absorbed, which contrasts with last year’s aggressive selling. For traders looking for a slow move back toward 0.7900, May 2026 call options with a 0.7800 strike may be appealing. Implied volatility is at multi-year lows, which makes longer-dated options relatively cheaper. This approach limits risk to the premium paid and offers upside if the US dollar strengthens. A more conservative idea for the next few weeks is to sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads. For example, selling a March 2026 0.7550 put and buying a 0.7450 put for protection can generate income from time decay. This trade works best if the mid-2025 low continues to act as a floor. The January 2026 US jobs report showed mild cooling. Non-farm payrolls rose by 165,000 versus expectations of 180,000. This keeps the chance of a mid-year Fed rate cut in play, which may limit any strong USD/CHF rally. Because of that, traders may watch the 0.7870 resistance area (near the 200-day moving average) as a possible profit-taking zone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says inflation remains high and rates may stay steady as developments are assessed
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Federal Reserve’s current policy gives it time to watch how conditions unfold. In prepared remarks Tuesday in Columbus, Ohio, she said the policy rate could stay on hold for a long time.
Hammack said the current Fed target rate is close to neutral. She also said economic growth has been supported by Fed policy, financial conditions, and fiscal support.
