A correction says the four-week average of the US ADP employment change rose to 6.5K from 5K previously
The 4-week average of US ADP Employment Change rose to 6.5K in the four weeks ending 24 January, up from 5K a week earlier. This was the third weekly rise in a row and the highest level since the week ending 3 January.
The US Dollar Index stayed rangebound near 96.85 on Tuesday, with little change after the release. Trading remained limited as markets waited for other drivers.
Anthropic, the San Francisco AI firm behind Claude, is finalising over $20 billion in funding, signalling a new phase
Anthropic is close to finalising a funding round of more than $20 billion, according to the Financial Times and Bloomberg. The round is expected to close in the second week of February and would value the company at about $350 billion.
Deutsche Bank research expects Anthropic’s cash burn to stay modest over the next 2–3 years. It also expects the company could reach break-even by 2028.
Claude Opus Model And Competitive Pressure
As of February 2026, Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.6. It includes multi-agent coordination and a 1-million-token context window. The model is aimed at financial research work, including screening, market intelligence, and due diligence. Amazon has invested $8 billion and recorded $9.5 billion in pre-tax income in Q3 2025 from its stake. Alphabet has invested $3.3 billion and supplies TPUs for Claude training. Nvidia has committed $10 billion and is also a major GPU supplier. Claude’s legal plugin targets workflows linked to Thomson Reuters’ Westlaw and overlaps with RELX’s LexisNexis tools. The article also says Anthropic has a 2026 revenue target of $20–$26 billion. The S&P 500 is described as trading around 6900, with 7500 noted as a measured-move level. It also points to a deepening bearish RSI divergence as a warning sign.Market Volatility And Options Positioning
With Anthropic’s $20 billion funding round expected to close next week, this could become a major volatility event for the AI sector. Traders may see higher options premiums in key partners such as Amazon and Nvidia as the market prices in the outcome. Past examples suggest large funding events—such as major AI infrastructure rounds in 2025—can trigger sharp, short-lived price moves. Claude Opus 4.6 may also widen the gap between AI platforms and data providers, putting pressure on firms such as Thomson Reuters and RELX. One approach is to trade this split with options—for example, buying calls on Alphabet while buying puts on RELX. Implied volatility on RELX March-expiry options has reportedly jumped above 45% in the past two weeks, which signals rising trader concern. Even with a strong AI narrative, the broader market looks less stable. The S&P 500 sits near 6900 and technical signals show bearish divergence. Last week’s CPI reading of 3.1% came in hotter than expected and has increased market sensitivity, echoing inflation fears seen in 2025. If the Anthropic deal stumbles, it could become a catalyst for a wider pullback. In that case, protective puts on the SPX index may help hedge risk. Given the uncertainty, volatility itself may be the trade in the weeks ahead. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been moving up from last year’s lows and has recently tested 18. If the funding round disappoints or economic data weakens further, the VIX could spike quickly. Long VIX call options are one way to position for that outcome. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen says Europe’s low gas stocks and reliance on LNG raise the risk of price spikes and rationing
Gas storage in Germany and across the EU is lower than normal. At the same time, demand is higher and the forward curve is flatter. This raises the risk of sudden price spikes and possible limits on gas use during peak demand.
At the current rate of withdrawals, EU gas reserves could drop below 20% by the end of winter. In Germany, reserves could fall below 20% by the last week of February, nearing the 2018 low of about 14%.
Storage Drawdown Risk Scenarios
Analysts at the Cologne Institute for Energy Economics (EWI) warn that storage could fall below 10% if a cold spell lasts through the end of March. To prevent this, the EU would need to raise import capacity utilisation to 90%, up from about 55%. In practice, withdrawals often slow in March as temperatures rise. LNG import capacity is expected to increase by 2% this year. This should allow imports to cover more demand and reduce reliance on stored gas. LNG is also easier to source on the global market than pipeline gas. The IEA expects LNG supply to grow by 7% this year, the same as last year. This should support lower prices later in the year. If storage drops too far, suppliers may need to buy higher-priced spot cargoes and impose consumption limits, mainly on industry, to protect household supply. The worries seen in early 2025 about critically low gas storage have not happened this winter. EU-wide reserves are currently much stronger, at about 62% full, based on Gas Infrastructure Europe’s latest data. This is well above the five-year average and far from the 20% level that was feared at this point last year.Implications For Near Term Gas Markets
Greater use of LNG has been the main reason for this stability. A mild start to winter and record US LNG exports in Q4 2025 kept Europe well supplied. This helped keep Dutch TTF gas futures below €35 per megawatt-hour and reduced the seasonal price swings seen in prior years. Still, a new risk is building for the coming weeks. Recent weather models now predict a sharp cold snap across northern Europe in late February. Even with high storage, a sudden and sustained jump in heating demand could quickly draw down inventories. This creates a short-term risk the market may not be fully pricing in. For derivatives traders, this suggests front-month volatility may be underestimated. Stable conditions could break if weather drives a demand shock. This may create opportunities in short-dated call options if prices spike. The spread between the March and April contracts could also widen if suppliers are forced to draw heavily from storage. While the rest of the year’s forward curve remains fairly flat because LNG supply is expected to stay strong, the near-term risk is higher prices. Unlike 2018, when low storage was the main issue, today’s risk is a fast scramble for spot LNG cargoes if a cold snap hits at the same time as even a small supply disruption. This makes close monitoring of short-term weather and LNG tanker flows especially important. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After weak retail sales, the DJIA slipped from a 50,509.22 peak to close 0.25% higher at 50,259.81
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an intraday record of 50,509.22 and closed at 50,259.81, up 123.57 points (0.25%). The S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 6,964.82, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.90% to 23,238.67.
December retail sales were flat month over month at $735 billion. That follows a 0.6% rise in November and came in below the 0.4% forecast. Sales excluding autos were also flat versus a 0.3% forecast, and the control group fell 0.1%.
Market Hedging With Index Puts
Furniture stores and miscellaneous retailers each fell 0.9%, while auto dealers slipped 0.2%. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in Q4, below the 0.8% forecast and the slowest pace since Q3 2020. Howard Lutnick repeated his view that GDP growth will be above 5% in Q1 2026, and said 6% is possible if rates fall. He pointed to more than 30 projects and $18 trillion in pledged investment. Scott Bessent put growth at 4–5%, while the IMF forecast 2.1% for the year. Datadog rose 15% and ServiceNow gained 4%. Spotify jumped more than 16% after adding 38 million users, reaching 751 million versus 745 million expected. S&P Global fell about 16% after guiding 2026 EPS to $19.40–$19.65 versus $19.96 expected. Coca-Cola fell more than 4% after guiding 2026 organic sales growth to 4–5%. TSMC posted January revenue of NT$401.26 billion ($12.71 billion), up 36.8% year over year and 19.8% month over month. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom each rose about 1%, while Disney rose more than 2.5%.Risk Positioning For Volatility
The Dow’s 50-day EMA is 48,744 and its 200-day EMA is 46,314. Stochastics are 77.96/64.48. Support sits at 50,000 and 49,600, with resistance near 50,500. The market is giving mixed signals, so we need to stay cautious. The Dow is at record highs above 50,000, but the surprise weakness in December 2025 retail sales and employment costs may be an early sign that consumers are slowing down. This could be a good time to protect gains by buying put options on broad market ETFs like DIA or SPY, in case the market pulls back. Weak data has also pushed up expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows nearly an 80% chance of three or more cuts in 2026. This is similar to the dovish shift the market priced in during late 2023. To benefit if yields fall, we could look at call options on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs such as TLT. There is also a big gap between the Commerce Secretary’s upbeat 5–6% GDP growth view and the IMF’s slower 2.1% forecast. This kind of disagreement often leads to more volatility as new data comes in. Buying VIX call options or using index straddles can be one way to position for larger swings. Not everything is moving up together anymore. Strong software earnings and TSMC’s record revenue suggest AI-related chips still have momentum. At the same time, weak guidance from companies like Coca-Cola and S&P Global points to stress in other areas. One way to trade this split is with pairs trades, such as buying calls on the SOXX semiconductor ETF while also buying puts on the XLP consumer staples ETF. From a technical view, the Dow looks stretched, and the Stochastic oscillator suggests overbought conditions. That supports a more careful stance in the short term. The 50,000 level is a key psychological support area and may be tested soon. With the index still near its highs, it can make sense to set up these hedges and volatility trades now, before a consolidation or pullback starts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/CAD falls for a third session as the Canadian dollar strengthens, trading below the 50- and 200-day EMAs
USD/CAD stays in a bearish trend. It trades below the 50-day EMA at 1.3757 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3854. The pair topped near 1.3928 in early January, then began making lower highs and lower lows.
On Tuesday, USD/CAD fell 0.25% to 1.3525 as the Canadian Dollar strengthened for a third straight session. Price is now close to the swing low at 1.3481 inside a descending channel. The 50 EMA is also turning down toward the 200 EMA.
Key Support And Resistance Levels
Support sits at 1.3481, then 1.3500. Resistance is around 1.3600 to 1.3650. A rebound stalled near 1.3700, and rejection candles suggest sellers are stepping in on rallies. The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) turned lower from the midline and did not reach overbought. A daily close below 1.3481 would open the door to 1.3400. A move above 1.3650 would change the near-term view. In Canada, January unemployment came in at 6.5% and wage growth was 3.3%. In the US, Retail Sales were 0.0% versus a 0.4% forecast, while the Employment Cost Index was 0.7% versus 0.8%. The US Dollar makes up over 88% of global FX turnover, or about $6.6 trillion per day (2022). The Fed targets 2% inflation. It can add liquidity through quantitative easing and tighten policy through quantitative tightening by reducing bond purchases.Late 2025 And Early 2026 Context
In early 2025, USD/CAD was in a clear downtrend and traded well below key moving averages. The descending channel was easy to see, and we highlighted 1.3481 as a key support level. A break below it would confirm more downside. The setup was supported by stronger Canadian labor data and softer US indicators. That bearish move largely played out as central bank policy paths split further. In the second half of 2025, Canadian inflation stayed sticky above 3%, which kept the Bank of Canada on hold. Meanwhile, US core PCE inflation cooled to 2.4% by year-end, leading the Federal Reserve to signal a more dovish tilt going into 2026. As of today, February 10, 2026, USD/CAD is consolidating near 1.3150 after breaking below 1.3400 late last year. Last week’s US jobs report showed a weaker-than-expected gain of 160,000. Canada’s December 2025 monthly GDP report also beat expectations. This backdrop still supports the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar. With the downtrend still in place, derivatives traders may favor strategies that benefit from further downside or sideways action. Buying puts with 45 to 60 days to expiry is a direct bearish approach, with a possible move toward the 1.3000 psychological level. A more conservative alternative is to sell out-of-the-money call spreads above the 1.3275 resistance area to collect premium while capping risk. Still, watch closely for signs of a reversal, especially if the pair starts closing consistently above the former support area near 1.3200. A sharp upside surprise in US inflation, or an unexpectedly dovish shift from the Bank of Canada, would be the main risks to the bearish view. Until then, the bias remains lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Bessent says the US could work productively with China as Trump’s administration also anticipates a partnership with Venezuela
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Capitol Hill hearing on Tuesday that the US can have a productive relationship with China. He said the US-China relationship is in a comfortable place, and that competition helps prevent stagnation.
He said the Trump administration wants a strong partnership with Venezuela. He added that this could eventually lead to free and fair elections.
Monetary Policy And Productivity Outlook
Bessent said the Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh’s leadership, would watch for any timing mismatch. He also said that productivity booms often lead to employment booms. He said the US will see what happens with Iran. He added that he is optimistic about the Russia-Ukraine situation. The positive comments on US-China relations may reduce market volatility. With the VIX index in the low teens—well below the averages seen in 2025—selling options to collect premium may look appealing. Traders could consider strategies such as selling cash-secured puts on major indices. This optimism also shows up in trade data. Two-way trade between the US and China rose 4% in the final quarter of 2025. This is especially helpful for semiconductor and technology firms, which are sensitive to trade tensions. Call options on technology-focused ETFs could be one way to benefit from this stability.Jobs Inflation And Risk Assets
The idea that a productivity boom can lead to an employment boom appears to be playing out. The January 2026 jobs report showed more than 225,000 new jobs. With core inflation steady at 2.9%, the Fed is not under immediate pressure to act. That supports risk assets. In this context, long-dated equity index futures may be a sensible position for the coming weeks. A potential partnership with Venezuela could add more oil supply to global markets and push prices lower. West Texas Intermediate crude has already fallen below $80 per barrel, a level not seen since last fall. Traders may look at buying put options on oil futures to position for more weakness. However, uncertainty around Iran still creates a need to hedge against a sudden jump in energy prices. That means the main view may be bearish on oil, but holding some low-cost, out-of-the-money call options on energy stocks could help protect against unexpected events. Bessent’s optimistic view on the Russia-Ukraine situation also supports a broader “risk-on” tone for European markets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold prices hover near $5,000, holding an uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and reinforcing bullish momentum
Spot Gold slipped on Tuesday after a brief early uptick, and short-term volatility increased. Medium- to long-term chart signals were unchanged.
Gold is still in an uptrend, holding above the 50-day EMA at 4,637 and the 200-day EMA at 3,954. After reaching an all-time high near 5,598 on 29 January, prices pulled back and then moved sideways in a range of roughly 4,800 to 5,100.
Near Term Technical Picture
Tuesday opened at 5,080, fell to 4,987, and traded near 5,013, down 1.31% on the day. The 5,000 level is key near-term support. The 5,080 to 5,100 area is near-term resistance. The pullback equals about a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the December 2025 lows. On lower timeframes, the Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) turned lower, with %K at 46.58 and %D at 41.94. US data showed December Retail Sales at 0.0% versus 0.4% expected, and the Q4 Employment Cost Index at 0.7% versus 0.8% consensus. If gold holds above 5,000, attention stays on 5,100 to 5,150. A daily close below 5,000 would shift focus to 4,935 to 4,880. After the late-January all-time high, gold is now consolidating around the important $5,000 level. This mix of indecision and higher short-term volatility can create clear opportunities for options strategies in the weeks ahead. The larger trend is still up, but the sideways trade calls for caution.Options Strategy Outlook
The fundamental case for gold appears to be improving, even though prices have stalled. Weak consumer data at the end of 2025 was followed by the January 2026 CPI report, where core inflation held at 3.5%—higher than expected. That supports gold’s role as an inflation hedge, as markets may see the Fed with less flexibility on interest rates. For traders looking for the uptrend to restart, buying bull call spreads may be a practical approach. It targets upside while limiting risk and lowering the upfront cost in a volatile market. Using March monthly options, one example is buying the $5,050 call and selling the $5,250 call to position for a move back toward the highs. The bullish view is also supported by global flows and currency moves. The World Gold Council reported that central banks kept buying into January 2026, adding another 78 tonnes, which points to steady institutional demand. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has struggled to hold above 102.50, which can support dollar-priced assets like gold. Still, the $5,000 psychological level remains critical support. A sustained break below it could lead to a deeper pullback toward the $4,880 support zone. To manage that risk, March $4,950 puts can provide relatively low-cost protection for long positions—or a way to trade a short-term downside break. This price action resembles the consolidation seen in Q3 2024, which came before a strong rally. We see the current phase as a healthy pause that can help build a new base. If that pattern repeats, patience may pay off, and dips toward the lower end of the range could offer buying opportunities. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Howard Lutnick, US Treasury Secretary, shared policy and trade remarks and forecast 6% first-quarter growth
US Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick spoke on Tuesday about policy, trade, and the economic outlook. He said he expects Q4 GDP growth to be above 5% and Q1 growth to be above 6%.
He said demand in the US for AI chips is very strong and that the US does not want to block it. He did not say whether the administration will limit Chinese licenses to access US chip markets.
Dollar Policy And Market Implications
Lutnick said the US Dollar was pushed higher for many years. He said it is more normal for the Dollar to be at its current level. He said foreign countries used trade surpluses to buy US assets. He said manufacturing jobs could grow sharply this year. He said Nvidia and China must follow the H200 chip license terms. He also said the Treasury follows the lead of President Trump and Senator Rubio, and described the US-China relationship as complex. With forecasts of 6% Q1 growth, the economy looks strong and inflation pressures may stay high. January’s Consumer Price Index came in hot at 4.1%, so the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon. Traders may look at options on SOFR futures to prepare for rates staying high through the summer.Trading Positioning And Sector Opportunities
The stated policy of supporting a weaker dollar creates a clear opportunity in foreign exchange markets. We have already seen the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) break below 100, a major move compared with the highs seen in 2025. This trend may help American exporters, which could make call options on pairs like EUR/USD or AUD/USD an attractive strategy. A weaker dollar also supports the push for strong manufacturing growth. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has printed above 50 for three straight months, which signals expansion in the sector. Bullish positions in industrial sector ETFs, using call spreads to limit risk, could benefit from this policy-driven momentum. The administration’s hands-off approach to AI chip demand is a strong support for the technology sector. Implied volatility for major semiconductor names like Nvidia remains high, which suggests the market expects continued large price swings. Using options can help manage this risk while still allowing for upside exposure. Uncertainty around China policy, especially on chip licenses, remains the biggest potential source of volatility. The market is reflecting this, shown by higher premiums for put options on China-focused tech ETFs. Holding some protective puts on these names could be a sensible hedge against sudden negative announcements from Washington. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After Monday’s 8% surge, silver trades lower and consolidates below $90 amid extreme volatility
Silver fell on Tuesday as traders took profits after Monday’s rally of more than 8%. It traded near $80.96, down about 3.47% on the day, even though the US Dollar was weaker and US Treasury yields were lower.
Silver hit a record high of 121.66 on 29 January after a sharp climb. It then dropped by nearly 47% in a fast correction.
Volatility And Near Term Outlook
Even after the rebound, price is still more than 33% below the January peak. The recent swings have kept volatility high and could lead to a period of sideways trading below $90.00. On the daily chart, Silver is slightly above its 50-day simple moving average at $78.90, which is acting as near-term support. The 50-day average is still above the 100-day average, so the broader trend remains positive. If price breaks below the 50-day average, the next support levels are $70.00 and the 100-day average near $64.28. On the upside, price needs a break above $90.00 to regain bullish momentum. RSI is near 46, which is neutral. ADX is 44.96, and ATR is around 10.07, which shows very wide daily ranges. Because volatility is still extreme, we think silver is moving into a consolidation phase. After the sharp moves seen in January 2026, the market is starting to calm, but daily ranges are still large. This means new positions should be managed carefully, since sudden moves can still happen.Options Strategy Considerations
The high Average True Range, near 10.07, suggests options premiums are very high. This makes buying standalone calls or puts expensive. It also increases the risk of losses if volatility falls, even if price moves in the right direction. We think selling premium, with clearly defined risk, may be a better approach in the coming weeks. This kind of unstable price action—a steep rise to $121.66 followed by a sharp drop—has happened before. A similar (but smaller) move occurred during the retail-driven “silver squeeze” in 2021, which also led to a spike and then a volatile pause. In the past, moves like this are often followed by choppy, range-bound trading as the market stabilizes. On fundamentals, the long-term bullish case still looks intact, especially after reports last year pointed to an ongoing structural supply deficit. The Silver Institute, for example, projected in 2025 that the market was heading for its fifth straight annual deficit. This support may cause long-term investors to treat dips as buying opportunities. With silver holding above its 50-day average near $78.90 but facing resistance near $90.00, we see a clear trading range. For derivatives traders, this setup can suit strategies such as iron condors. Selling a condor with strikes placed comfortably outside the $70–$90 zone could allow traders to benefit from time decay and a possible drop in volatility. For traders with a directional view who still want to control risk, vertical spreads can help. If a trader expects the 50-day moving average to hold, they could sell a put spread below $78.90. This limits maximum risk while still collecting premium from elevated option prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Sterling steadies below 1.3700, dipping 0.2% to 1.3660 as weak US data limits dollar losses
GBP/USD traded at 1.3660 after slipping below 1.3700. It was down 0.2% in Tuesday’s North American session. The pair earlier reached a daily high of 1.3700 before pulling back.
US data missed expectations, but the Dollar still recovered from earlier losses. December Retail Sales were flat (0.0% month-on-month) versus a 0.4% forecast. The Control Group fell -0.1% MoM after a 0.2% rise in November.
