CFTC reports US S&P 500 NC net positions decreased to $-818K from $-122.1K
**Market Movement on January 23, 2026**
On January 23, 2026, various markets experienced significant changes. The US CFTC S&P 500 net positions fell from -$122.1K to -$818K.
The EUR/USD rose above 1.1800, driven by rumors of yen intervention that impacted the dollar. Gold prices surged to $4,988, getting close to the important $5,000 mark.
The GBP/USD hit a four-month high of 1.3600 due to a weaker US dollar. Bitcoin struggled, dropping below $90,000 because of ETF outflows and changes in policy.
Swiss bank UBS is looking into Bitcoin and Ethereum offerings for some private clients. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are expected to pause rate adjustments amid geopolitical issues and possible new leadership.
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The US Dollar has been experiencing a strong sell-off. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell through the support level of 101.00, hitting a four-month low at 100.50, leading to increased volatility. Traders in derivatives might consider buying puts on dollar-based ETFs or selling call spreads if they believe the downward trend will continue.
Gold approaching the $5,000 level reflects the dollar’s decline and falling real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield dropping to -0.15% supports this surge, marking a trend not seen since the inflation scare of 2025. We should explore long call option strategies on gold futures to benefit from this significant resistance break.
The suspected intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance is causing extreme fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair, which is impacting all dollar pairs. We saw previous similar actions in late 2025 when the pair was over 150. The current drop below 138 suggests intervention may happen soon. Therefore, long-dated put options on USD/JPY may be worth considering, even with high premiums, to protect against a potential coordinated yen-strengthening effort.
We’re witnessing notable strength in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with prices at 1.1800 and 1.3600 respectively. This trend isn’t only due to dollar weakness; recent UK inflation data increased to 3.1%, and German manufacturing PMI has finally risen to 50.2, indicating expansion. Buying call options on these pairs could be advantageous as we anticipate an upward trend leading up to the Fed meeting.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting poses a significant risk, particularly with an expected pause following several rate cuts. Notably, net short positions on S&P 500 futures have seen a massive rise, reaching their most bearish level since the market downturn in late 2025. This disconnect from the currency markets suggests that buying inexpensive, out-of-the-money put options on the SPX could serve as a useful hedge for portfolios.
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Gold rises over 1% to reach an all-time high of $4,988 amid intervention rumors
Gold prices jumped over 1% on Friday, reaching a record high of $4,988 after rumors of Japanese Yen intervention caused the US Dollar to drop. The Dollar Index fell to 97.79, but steady US Treasury yields did not dampen the strong demand for gold.
The US Dollar hit its lowest point since October 2025, despite stable Treasury bond yields. Improved consumer sentiment in the US, highlighted by the University of Michigan survey, could not stop gold’s rise, while economic data painted a mixed picture for business growth.
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Market Influence
The expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026 remain on track. Future economic reports and key meetings, including the FOMC and a press conference from Jerome Powell, are likely to impact the market. Gold has climbed 15% this year, while silver has increased 39% in 2026. Consumer sentiment has reached a five-month high, with slight declines in inflation expectations. Business activity has shown modest improvement; however, concerns about new business growth remain. Gold prices are now eyeing the $5,000 barrier, with resistance and support levels being evaluated. Gold continues to be a safe-haven asset influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors. Central banks buy gold to strengthen their currencies, and gold prices often move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and Treasuries. With the US Dollar Index dropping towards 97.80 due to rumors of Japanese intervention, maintaining a positive outlook on gold seems reasonable. The weakness of the dollar is the main factor driving this trend, making long gold futures or buying call options the most straightforward way to take advantage of the momentum. This trend is further supported by market reactions to the dollar, which has struggled since late 2025 when the USD/JPY rate neared multi-decade highs around 175. Implied volatility in gold options is rising as we approach the $5,000 psychological barrier, increasing options premiums. Traders might consider selling out-of-the-money puts to finance at-the-money calls, forming a bullish risk-reversal strategy that takes advantage of the upward trend. This approach echoes what we observed last year, when central banks, especially the People’s Bank of China, reportedly added 1,050 tonnes to global reserves in 2025, bolstering demand.Fed Chair Announcement and Market Volatility
The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting carries significant risks. While modest rate cuts are anticipated this year, any hawkish remarks from Chair Powell could quickly reverse the gold rally. We recommend buying protective puts with strikes near $4,900 as a smart hedge to safeguard profits from sudden changes in sentiment, especially given that inflation has remained stubbornly above 3% for much of 2025. Adding to this uncertainty is President Trump’s expected announcement of a new Fed Chair. A dovish pick could boost gold prices even further, while a hawkish selection could spark a notable pullback. We advise traders to prepare for increased volatility around the announcement by using straddles or strangles on gold futures, which can profit from significant price moves in either direction. Despite positive consumer sentiment data, we are cautious about signs of slowing business growth in the first quarter. This economic weakness, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions throughout 2025, keeps gold’s safe-haven attraction strong. We should consider any dips toward the $4,950 support level as potential buying opportunities unless the dollar fundamentally changes direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US Dollar hits four-month low of around 97.80 amid risk aversion before Fed’s decision
The US Dollar (USD) finished the week close to a four-month low at about 97.80 due to increased market risk aversion. This drop came after President Trump threatened tariffs against eight European countries unless Denmark sold Greenland. Tensions eased later when a potential deal involving NATO was announced.
Revised figures for the US’s Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicated an annual growth rate of 4.4%. Furthermore, inflation for October and November rose to 2.8% based on the PCE Price Index, which met market expectations.
US Dollar Index Performance
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a multi-week low following weak preliminary S&P Global PMIs for January. It dropped 0.43% against the Euro. Initial PMIs from the Eurozone showed mixed results, with manufacturing still contracting. Next week, attention will be on more GDP and inflation data from the Eurozone and Germany. UK retail sales exceeded expectations, boosting GBP/USD. The USD/JPY pair softened as the Bank of Japan kept its policies unchanged. The AUD rose sharply after gold prices reached record levels, hitting figures not seen since September 2024. Gold’s price peaked at $4,988 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Upcoming economic events will feature speeches from ECB members and monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan and others. The Federal Reserve will also release various economic indicators from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US.US Dollar and Economic Data
The US Dollar is quite weak, staying near a four-month low, even though recent economic data is strong. The revised 4.4% Q3 GDP and 2.8% PCE inflation show past strength. However, the market seems focused on recent softness, like the January PMI miss, suggesting we should be cautious about assuming a simple downtrend for the dollar, especially with a crucial Fed meeting ahead. With the Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates steady next week, all eyes will be on their guidance. Given the weak PMI figures, any signals of a dovish stance could worsen the dollar’s decline. It might be wise to consider options like buying straddles on the DXY to prepare for potential volatility after the Fed’s announcement. On the other hand, the British Pound is showing solid strength, reaching levels we haven’t seen since September 2025. Strong UK retail sales and PMI data suggest the Bank of England may maintain a hawkish stance longer than other banks. This makes long GBP/USD positions appealing, potentially using call spreads to manage risk while benefiting from upward momentum. The Japanese Yen is an exception, with USD/JPY at around 156.00 following the Bank of Japan’s passive approach. This reminds us of the interest rate differentials seen in 2023, making carry trades funded by the Yen attractive. We see a chance to sell JPY against stronger currencies like the Pound. The Australian Dollar is benefiting from record gold prices, which are approaching $5,000 per ounce due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Traders should monitor this trend, as AUD/USD call options could provide a leveraged way to take advantage of strong gold prices. The upcoming Australian inflation data on Wednesday is crucial for this currency pair. Despite a busy economic calendar, market volatility seems low, with the VIX index around a low of 13. This implies complacency and might lead to lower options premiums, providing an opportunity to buy protection or make speculative trades on major currency pairs ahead of next week’s central bank meetings and data releases. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The USD/JPY pair declines sharply, prompting worries about possible intervention by authorities.
The USD/JPY has fallen to its lowest level in weeks, down about 1.4% after a suspected ‘rate check’ by the Japan Ministry of Finance. Concerns over the yen’s excessive weakness have raised fears of government intervention, with the pair trading close to 156.18, the lowest since December.
This decline is also linked to a general weakening of the US Dollar. Worries about the Federal Reserve’s independence and US protectionist trade policies have shaken confidence in the Dollar. The US Dollar Index is around 98.76, near its lowest value since early October.
Bank Of Japan’s Stance
The Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates at 0.75%, despite some board members pushing for a hike to 1.00%. The BoJ anticipates moderate economic growth but expects headline inflation to fall below 2%, with stronger underlying inflation to follow later. Focus is now turning to US monetary policy, where the Federal Reserve is expected to hold current rates at the upcoming January FOMC meeting. However, two rate cuts are anticipated later this year, which may put additional downward pressure on the Dollar. The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation at 2% and maintain full employment by adjusting interest rates. Changes in rates affect the strength of the Dollar, as hikes attract foreign investment, while cuts may lead to capital outflows. The next decision on rates is set for January 2026. The significant drop in the USD/JPY after the suspected rate check signals that we should take the possibility of direct intervention seriously. This indicates that officials are uncomfortable with the yen’s weakness, making it risky to hold long Dollar positions against the yen. Traders might want to prepare for a potential rise in yen strength soon. We’ve seen situations like this before, where changes happen quickly and dramatically. Looking back at the interventions in 2022 and rumored actions in spring 2024, Japanese authorities have previously spent tens of billions to defend their currency when necessary. The current decline to the 156 level suggests a new defensive line may be forming, well below the 160 peak seen in 2024.Shifting Fundamentals
Fundamental factors are changing and are now favoring the yen, creating a strong tailwind. The Bank of Japan is hinting at future rate increases from the current 0.75%, while the market is pricing in two cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. This narrowing interest rate gap unwinds the carry trade that has negatively affected the yen in recent years. Expectations of Fed cuts are supported by economic data showing a slowdown in the U.S. For instance, the latest core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, decreased to an annualized rate of 2.5% in December 2025. This data gives the central bank room to start easing policy later this year, which continues to weaken the Dollar. For those trading derivatives, this environment suggests considering USD/JPY put options to benefit from possible further declines. Increased intervention threats have likely raised implied volatility, making options pricier but potentially more advantageous if a sharp shift occurs. Selling volatility through strategies like short strangles could be particularly risky until the intervention threat diminishes. All eyes will now be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting on January 28. While no rate change is expected, the tone of the announcement will be crucial. Any indication of a shift toward more lenient policies, which supports market expectations for future rate cuts, could lead to another sell-off of the US Dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.British Pound rises to 1.3600 against the US Dollar amid increased Dollar selling
GBP/USD has climbed to 1.3600, reaching its highest point since September 2025. This increase is supported by strong UK economic data and a general decline in the US Dollar. Currently, GBP/USD is up nearly 0.73%, continuing this upward trend.
In the UK, positive economic reports have lowered expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Bank of England. The flash Composite PMI rose to 53.9 in January, with gains in both services and manufacturing PMIs. Retail Sales also saw a boost, increasing by 0.4% month-over-month in December, and annual sales grew by 2.5%.
US Dollar Trade Policy Concerns
On the other hand, the US Dollar is struggling due to concerns over trade policies and questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence. President Trump’s trade approaches and potential political influence over the Fed are shaking confidence. Moreover, investigations into Fed Chair Jerome Powell are adding to worries about US monetary policy credibility. These issues are causing traders to move away from the US Dollar and consider other G10 currencies. The US Dollar Index is hovering near its lowest levels since October, and more traders expect rate cuts from the Fed this year, putting additional pressure on the currency. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling remains one of the most traded currencies globally, heavily influenced by decisions from the Bank of England. This year tells a different story than last, when GBP/USD rose to a four-month high of 1.3600. That surge in early 2025 was driven by strong UK economic performance, which made a Bank of England rate cut less likely. Concurrently, strong selling of the US Dollar stemmed from concerns about the Federal Reserve and trade policies. Throughout 2025, the Bank of England remained steady as UK inflation stubbornly stayed above target, averaging 2.8% in the last quarter. However, recent numbers from the Office for National Statistics show that GDP growth slowed to only 0.1% in Q4 2025, raising doubts about the sustainability of this strength. This presents a challenge for the BoE going forward.Market Expectations and Strategies
In the US, expectations from last year were met as the Federal Reserve implemented two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, one in July and another in December. While the political noise around the Fed has quieted, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered from its lows and is now trading near 101.50, showing a divergence from the widespread dollar weakness seen a year ago. With the UK economy cooling and the US Dollar gaining strength, the bullish trends observed in early 2025 are fading. The current outlook suggests that GBP/USD may trend downwards in the coming weeks. For traders, buying put options on GBP/USD could be a wise strategy to gain downside exposure while managing risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US Baker Hughes oil rig count reaches 411, meeting expectations
The United States Baker Hughes oil rig count is steady at 411 rigs, meeting market expectations and showing stability in the energy sector.
In currency news, the EUR/USD has risen above 1.1800, partly due to speculation about Japanese yen interventions impacting the dollar. Similarly, GBP/USD has climbed to 1.3600 because of aggressive dollar selling and positive UK market data.
Gold Price Trends
Gold prices are climbing close to $5,000 per troy ounce, driven by a weak US Dollar. The rise is also supported by demand for safe assets amid mixed results in US Treasury yields. Swiss bank UBS Group is set to offer cryptocurrency services like Bitcoin and Ethereum to selected private clients. However, Bitcoin’s value has dropped below $90,000, reflecting a 5% weekly decline after comments on tariffs from Trump. Next week, the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are expected to keep interest rates steady, with all eyes on Trump’s upcoming Fed chair nomination. Market watchers should be alert to potential geopolitical tensions during these meetings.Market Strategies and Predictions
The main theme for trading is the strong sell-off of the US Dollar. With speculation about Japanese interventions causing the Dollar to fall to multi-month lows against the Euro and Pound, we should think about derivatives that can benefit from this ongoing weakness. Recent volatility in forex markets makes options strategies, like long straddles on pairs such as EUR/USD, attractive for capitalizing on significant price moves in either direction. Gold’s approach toward $5,000 directly relates to the dollar’s decline and rising geopolitical concerns. This surge is backed by data from the World Gold Council, showing that central banks are currently buying gold at a record rate not seen in over 50 years. We should consider buying call options on gold futures to take advantage of this strong upward trend while managing our risks. The stable US oil rig count at 411 suggests no increase in production, which is bullish in a weak dollar environment. However, this number is significantly lower than the 621 rigs at the start of 2025, highlighting a long-term decrease in drilling investment. This tight supply, combined with a falling dollar, indicates a strong possibility for rising WTI crude prices, making long positions in oil futures attractive. Lastly, the Federal Reserve’s recent pause after a series of rate cuts, along with uncertainty about a new Fed chair nomination, is likely to increase volatility in equity markets. In the past, we saw the VIX index, which measures market fear, rise by over 30% during similar leadership changes in 2017. Traders should consider buying protection or speculating on market movements using options on the S&P 500 and VIX futures in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold nears $5,000 with soft US dollar and safe-haven interest, marking a third consecutive weekly increase
Gold is close to $5,000 as it rises due to strong safe-haven demand and a weakening US Dollar. Currently, XAU/USD trades around $4,980, bouncing back from a low of about $4,899, marking its third straight week of gains.
This week, gold has surged over 8%, fueled by renewed trade worries after US President Donald Trump’s comments about Greenland affected global markets. While some tensions eased with a framework agreement, the lack of specific details kept gold on its upward path.
Recent US Economic Data
Recent economic data did not help the Dollar, enabling gold to climb higher. The Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 51.9 in January, while the Services PMI remained steady. The Consumer Expectations Index improved to 57, and the Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 56.4. In Q3, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 4.4%, exceeding estimates, while inflation expectations slightly declined. The Dollar Index is approaching two-week lows and has dropped for the first time in three weeks. President Trump is in the process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, and observers are closely monitoring for any dovish signals. As policy meetings approach, markets are not expecting a change in interest rates, but they are cautious about a shift toward a looser stance from the Fed. Technically, gold is on a strong upward trend but is showing signs of short-term exhaustion due to overbought conditions. Support levels are at $4,900, $4,828, and $4,709, while resistance remains strong at $5,000.Strategic Approaches for Volatile Markets
As gold approaches the $5,000 mark, we need to prepare for volatility in the coming weeks. The clear uptrend is evident, but technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are showing signs of fatigue. This indicates the market is at a crucial point where a sharp movement in either direction is likely. The case for higher gold prices is still strong due to a weak US Dollar and ongoing geopolitical issues. For traders who think the “Sell America” trend will persist, buying call options with strike prices above $5,000 can help take advantage of a breakout. This strategy allows involvement in further gains while clearly defining risk. However, we must recognize the bearish divergence on charts and the psychological resistance at $5,000. If gold fails to break above this level, we could see a quick drop toward the $4,900 support zone. Buying put options can be an effective way to protect long positions or speculate on a short-term price drop. The upcoming announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair could lead to significant price movement. Since the direction of this move is unpredictable, we can use options straddles or strangles to benefit from increased volatility. This approach allows us to profit without needing to predict if prices will rise or fall. Market anxiety is growing, creating a volatile environment for gold. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has climbed above 18 this month, a sharp increase from the calmer levels seen in late 2025. This shows rising investor worries about both Fed policy and global trade stability. In the options market, there’s a significant buildup of open interest around the $5,000 strike, highlighting its importance as a key level. Additionally, we’ve noticed an increase in protective put buying below $4,900, indicating that the market is heavily positioned for a decisive and potentially large move outside the current range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Euro stays stable around 1.1750 as US data fails to boost the Dollar’s performance
Eurozone and US PMI Results
The latest S&P Global PMI data shows that the Composite PMI slightly increased to 52.8 in January from 52.7. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9, but this was lower than the expected 52.1. The Services PMI stayed the same at 52.5, also below the anticipated 52.8. The University of Michigan’s January survey indicated a small boost in consumer sentiment. The Expectations Index climbed to 57, and the Sentiment Index hit 56.4, both surpassing market predictions. In the US, developments regarding potential tariffs on Europe are being closely monitored after a framework agreement in the Greenland dispute. The focus is now on the Federal Reserve, as we expect announcements regarding the next Fed Chair soon. For the Eurozone, the preliminary HCOB PMI data shows a Composite PMI of 51.5 in January, which is slightly below expectations. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.4, exceeding forecasts, while the Services PMI fell to 51.9, missing predictions. As we look back at mixed economic signals from last year, we notice similar patterns emerging today, January 24, 2026; however, the situation has changed dramatically. The EUR/USD is currently around 1.0830, much lower than the previous level of 1.1750. Both economies are still dealing with the impacts of the 2023-2024 slowdown. The ongoing weakness in this currency pair suggests that any options strategies should be tailored for a market that may remain stagnant, but with potential for sharp moves based on data.Analyzing Volatility Strategies
Right now, the US economy appears to be recovering slowly, which is different from the moderate growth seen in early 2025. Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed an annualized GDP growth of just 1.3% for Q4 2025, and the latest S&P Global Composite PMI for January was nearly stagnant at 50.4. With the Fed funds rate steady at 4.75%-5.00%, traders might want to consider buying VIX call options to protect against market jitters over possible policy mistakes. The European situation is more troubling, with the latest HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone falling to 49.2, indicating a slight contraction. This is weaker than most of 2025, showing that the Euro lacks fundamental strength. Thus, selling out-of-the-money call options on EUR/USD could be a good strategy for generating premium while limiting risk. In this context, implied volatility for EUR/USD options has risen, with the 1-month volatility index now at 8.2%, up from a low of 6.5% late last year. This scenario is favorable for strategies that benefit from price fluctuations in either direction, such as long straddles or strangles focused on the 1.0800 strike price. These positions could profit from a breakout if the Fed or ECB signals a significant policy change in their upcoming meetings. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for January 29 and the European Central Bank meeting the following week. We will be watching for any changes in their language regarding potential rate cuts, as the market currently sees a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut by June 2026. Traders in derivatives should consider buying puts with a three-month expiry to safeguard against sudden downturns, targeting the 1.0650 level, which has been a strong support zone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Silver prices surged past $100, reaching a record high of $100.39 before a slight decline.
Silver prices have recently climbed above $100.00, reaching a peak of $100.39, before falling slightly. The grey metal has seen a daily gain of over 4% after bouncing back from a low of $96.04.
Even with reducing geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar has weakened, affecting silver prices. Discussions involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US have started in Abu Dhabi to address ongoing conflicts.
Strong Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that momentum is still strong, hinting at potential further gains. If silver prices drop below $96.00, it could lead to a correction down to $86.23. Several factors influence silver prices, including geopolitical issues, industrial demand, and the strength of the US Dollar. Silver is notably used in electronics and solar energy, with rising demand possibly boosting its value. Silver prices usually follow the trends of Gold due to their shared safe-haven status. The Gold/Silver ratio can help determine if silver is undervalued or overvalued compared to gold. The information provided discusses risks linked to trading silver and is for informational purposes only. Readers should do their own research before making investment decisions. This article does not provide personalized investment advice.Impact Of US Dollar Weakness
With silver breaking the important $100.00 level, the main reason is the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped over 8% since the third quarter of 2025 and is currently around 95.50, creating a favorable environment for dollar-denominated assets. Given this macro situation, we should be careful about taking short positions, as the trend is likely upward while the dollar is weak. Now that we are at record highs, we should expect heightened volatility in the weeks ahead. Implied volatility for short-term silver options has already risen above 45%, a level we haven’t seen since early 2025’s market turmoil, making buying options costly. It might be better to sell premium using defined-risk strategies like bear call spreads above the $105 mark or bull put spreads below $95 to profit from this volatility. While the momentum is strong, we should keep an eye on the Gold/Silver ratio for signs of divergence. With gold priced around $3,150, the ratio has fallen to a historically low 31.5, indicating that silver may be overvalued compared to gold. A drop below the crucial $96.00 support level might lead to a quick correction, making a pairs trade of long gold and short silver a smart hedge. We also need to consider the solid fundamental support for silver from industrial demand. Final reports from the Silver Institute in 2025 revealed that global demand from solar panel and electric vehicle manufacturing rose by over 20% year-over-year. This strong industrial demand is not just speculative and could provide a solid price floor during any potential pullbacks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Pound strengthens beyond 1.3540 due to unexpected UK retail sales and PMI results
The Pound Sterling rose against the US Dollar, exceeding 1.3540, thanks to strong retail sales and PMI data from the UK. During the North American session, GBP/USD jumped over 0.31%, trading at 1.3542 after earlier dipping to 1.3482.
The currency also climbed to around 1.3536, supported by impressive S&P Global PMI data for January and an uptick in December retail sales in the UK. Additionally, improved risk appetite due to eased US–EU trade tensions contributed to the Pound’s strength, now trading at 1.1357, a 0.24% increase.
