Italy’s final GDP for the fourth quarter has been revised to a growth of 0.1% compared to a preliminary estimate of 0.0%.

This revision marks a slight increase from the previous quarter, which also recorded 0.0%. The data, released by Istat on 5 March 2025, reflects the economic performance at the end of the previous year, noted to be somewhat delayed in publication.

Impact Of The Revision

The change in GDP figures means the economy expanded slightly more than originally reported. Although the difference is not large, it provides a better indication of the country’s performance in the final months of last year. With the prior estimate showing no growth, even a small upward adjustment alters the broader assessment of economic stability.

Market participants often react to such revisions, particularly those who focus on economic cycles when making decisions. A shift from stagnation to mild expansion may affect sentiment, even if underlying conditions remain largely unchanged. It suggests the slowdown was not as pronounced as initially recorded, which could influence expectations for the coming months.

The report also confirms that growth across the last six months remained subdued. A flat reading in the previous quarter combined with this marginal uptick indicates a lack of strong momentum. Given that revisions are backward-looking, their immediate impact on markets tends to be tied to forward expectations rather than the past.

Looking Ahead

With this data in hand, attention will likely shift to upcoming releases that provide more insight into whether this modest increase is the beginning of a stronger phase or simply a small fluctuation within an otherwise weak period. Those making decisions based on economic performance should take note of whether subsequent indicators align with this revision or suggest a different course for the months ahead.

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The EUR/USD pair has reached its highest level since 11 November, approaching the 1.0700 mark. This movement has been supported by recent easing in German debt brake rules and a weaker dollar this week.

Currently, GBP/USD has increased by 0.2% to 1.2815, while USD/JPY has decreased by 0.3% to 149.35. The upcoming US ADP employment change and ISM services PMI reports are expected to influence the dollar’s performance. Observers will monitor these developments closely as the EUR/USD pair tests the next key resistance level.

Euro Gains Strength

The euro has been gaining strength, helped by adjustments to Germany’s fiscal policies. The dollar, on the other hand, has been struggling this week. This combination has pushed EUR/USD towards 1.0700, the highest level since early November. Investors have been reacting to news about Germany softening its debt restrictions, which has led to optimism about economic stability in Europe. At the same time, a weaker dollar has given the euro more room to rise.

The pound, though not making drastic moves, has continued to show upward momentum. It has climbed slightly, while the yen has gone in the opposite direction, strengthening against the dollar. The 0.3% drop in USD/JPY suggests a small but notable shift in sentiment, as traders weigh their positions.

Attention now turns to fresh data from the United States. Employment figures and service sector performance will play a role in shaping expectations. If the reports suggest strength in the job market, the dollar could regain some ground. A weaker reading, however, may cause further softness. These factors matter because they influence speculation about interest rates. When labour market conditions remain strong, policymakers have more justification to keep rates high. If cracks start to show, expectations could shift.

Market Volatility Ahead

As EUR/USD pushes against resistance, traders may reconsider their positions. The recent rally has been steady, but the hurdles ahead will test whether the move can continue. Momentum matters in moments like this. If buyers continue to step in, the pair could break above this level. If hesitation sets in, the trend may slow, or even reverse.

For those focused on price movements, upcoming data releases may introduce volatility. This makes it necessary to stay alert to new information, particularly regarding how markets react in real time. The pace of price adjustments will offer clues about whether the latest trends have more room to run or if they start to fade.

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Eurostoxx futures have risen by 1.9% in early European trading, indicating a potential recovery for equities following a volatile week. The DAX experienced a drop of 3.5% yesterday as European indices did not benefit from a late rebound in US stocks.

Recent news from Germany and a more optimistic tone from US futures, with the S&P 500 up by 0.7%, are contributing to expectations for a stronger session ahead. This shift in sentiment suggests a turnaround might be underway for European markets.

European Markets Recovering

European markets appear to be finding their footing after a turbulent period, with early trading showing a recovery in equity futures. The sharp decline in Germany’s primary index yesterday underscored how the region lagged behind Wall Street’s late-session gains, raising concerns over divergence between markets. However, today’s trading suggests sentiment may be improving as investors react to both regional developments and the latest moves in US futures.

A 1.9% rise in Eurostoxx futures signals renewed confidence, particularly as it coincides with a more upbeat mood in the United States. The S&P 500’s early climb of 0.7% sends a strong message that traders are beginning to price in a potential stabilisation. Europe’s reaction will be closely watched, given that recent sessions have failed to maintain momentum from across the Atlantic. Markets are starting to reflect fresh optimism, but the persistence of this recovery will depend on whether buyers remain committed throughout the day.

Volatility has been a dominant theme, particularly with yesterday’s sharp moves. The steep 3.5% drop in the DAX illustrated how selling pressure persisted despite attempts at recovery elsewhere. This selloff was driven by a combination of broader risk aversion and local economic factors, putting further pressure on valuations. Today’s early gains are encouraging, but it remains to be seen whether they will hold. If bulls maintain control, this could lead to more sustained strength heading into next week.

For traders focused on derivatives, these moves provide both opportunity and caution. Increased swings in price action highlight the need for adaptability. With European indices responding more slowly to US market swings, timing becomes even more important. If momentum holds, short-term positioning may need adjustment to account for a market that is shifting from reactive to proactive.

Key Market Considerations

Key considerations in the next few sessions will be whether European buyers follow through on early strength and if US markets extend their gains. If sentiment continues to improve, it could support further upward movement in European futures. However, hesitation or another wave of selling would bring fresh challenges. The next steps depend on how market participants interpret today’s early strength.

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Uchida from the Bank of Japan stated that uncertainty remains regarding the impact of US tariffs on the global economy. He noted that higher tariffs will affect Japan’s economy and prices, with a comprehensive assessment to be made using new projections in the upcoming 1 May meeting.

There are currently no plans to sell the Bank of Japan’s ETF holdings. Uchida remarked that the outcome of this year’s wage negotiations does not influence their perspective. The timing for the next rate hike is uncertain, with March potentially being early. Current trader expectations indicate around an 18% likelihood of a rate hike, which may change based on future communications from the Bank.

Uncertainty In Trade Policies

Uchida’s comments highlight the uncertainty surrounding the effects of US trade policies on international markets. Higher tariffs could influence Japan’s economic growth and consumer prices, but the full extent will only become clearer once fresh projections are available. With the next policy meeting scheduled for 1 May, there remains a waiting period before any potential adjustments are considered. Given the reliance on updated data, market participants should remain attentive to any shifts in outlook from policymakers.

On exchange-traded fund holdings, the Bank of Japan does not currently plan to reduce its portfolio. This stance suggests an intention to maintain stability in domestic financial markets. While concerns about the longer-term impact of these assets exist, there appears to be no immediate urgency to alter that position. Any potential changes would likely be telegraphed well in advance, reducing the chance of sudden shifts in market sentiment.

Regarding interest rates, Uchida indicated that the outcome of annual wage negotiations does not alter their perspective. In other words, broader economic conditions, rather than short-term wage developments, guide policy decisions. This suggests a more measured approach to rate policy rather than reacting to individual economic indicators.

Market Expectations And Future Guidance

The exact timing of another rate increase remains uncertain. March may be too soon, as suggested in the statement. Current market pricing reflects an 18% probability of an adjustment, though expectations can shift as more communication from policymakers emerges. Future guidance from the central bank will play a substantial role in shaping these probabilities.

With upcoming economic data and policy statements, a careful approach is warranted. The next few weeks may bring adjustments to market expectations, with traders needing to interpret the ongoing communications from both domestic and global policymakers.

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Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated there is no pre-established plan for the pace of future interest rate hikes. He noted that rate adjustments are not guaranteed at every policy meeting.

Uchida emphasised the importance of wage developments in understanding Japan’s inflation trends. He acknowledged the need to closely monitor the prices of goods, as this affects inflation expectations and will inform discussions on policy decisions during meetings based on economic and price movements.

Policy Decisions Based On Data

The absence of a predetermined roadmap for interest rate increases means every policy decision will depend on incoming data rather than a fixed schedule. Markets expecting adjustments at each gathering of the central bank could find themselves recalibrating their assumptions. If inflation data or wage growth fails to align with the bank’s expectations, policy action may not materialise as frequently as some anticipate.

Wages occupy a central position in the current approach to inflation assessment. Without sustained growth in worker compensation, any inflationary pressures from goods or services could struggle to maintain momentum. If salaries fail to keep pace with price increases, consumer spending may weaken in the longer run, influencing broader monetary policy choices. Recent patterns in corporate earnings and labour negotiations merit ongoing attention, as they will affect officials assessing inflation’s durability.

Price levels remain under scrutiny. Cost movements across essential goods not only shape consumer sentiment but also contribute to broader inflation trends. A rapid acceleration in price increases may lead to a stronger policy response, whereas a more moderate trajectory could see a cautious stance. We recognise that inflation expectations can shift abruptly, with external economic conditions—such as currency fluctuations or import costs—amplifying domestic price trends. Any deviation from anticipated inflation outcomes may prompt discussions on whether adjustments to the current approach are warranted.

Market Expectations And Flexibility

Short-term market positioning should account for fluidity in policy expectations. Any assumption that rate moves will follow a set pattern could prove misplaced. Unexpected economic developments—whether wage-driven or price-related—have the potential to steer decision-making in directions not fully priced in by markets. Traders who remain adaptable and responsive to new information will be in a stronger position to navigate forthcoming shifts.

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Okta (OKTA) experienced a substantial post-earnings increase, rising over 25%, exceeding the anticipated 12% move. It reached $109.78, breaking past the $100 resistance level and approaching $110.

Key resistance levels lie between $111.35 and $115.35, with historical price points including $111.35 from March 2024, $112.08 from February 2024, and $114.50 as an upper target. Potential pullback areas may see the stock retracing to $100.75, possibly taking two to three weeks.

Future Price Expectations

Looking ahead to the next earnings report on May 29, 2025, prices could advance towards $140-$150. Current RSI readings show that Okta is in overbought territory, with historical data suggesting a careful approach if RSI nears 85.

The sharp surge in Okta’s stock price following earnings reflects a reaction stronger than predicted. With an expected move of around 12%, the actual rally of over 25% has pushed shares through a key psychological threshold at $100, now setting sights on higher resistance levels.

When we look at past price behaviour, notable areas of resistance can be identified between $111.35 and $115.35. These markers, derived from past trading activity earlier this year, highlight potential zones where selling pressure may emerge. The levels at $111.35 and $112.08, both tested in early 2024, along with $114.50 as a higher-range target, suggest a challenging path ahead. If buyers continue to drive momentum, a further breakout remains possible, but a retracement towards $100.75 should not be ruled out. Such a pullback, historically taking two to three weeks to develop, would align with previous post-earnings patterns.

Future movements will also be shaped by the upcoming earnings report set for May 29, 2025. Given recent price action, an extension upwards to the $140–$150 range remains within reason. However, momentum indicators provide an additional layer of insight. The current Relative Strength Index reading suggests overbought conditions, which typically indicate the possibility of temporary weakness. If RSI nears 85, historical trends suggest that short-term rallies may lose strength before regaining footing.

Short Term Outlook

The focus now is on short-term consolidation versus continued upside. With recent gains pushing shares towards resistance, whether bullish momentum persists or sellers begin to take profits will define price direction in the coming weeks.

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A news conference is set for 3pm Beijing time on Thursday, March 6, 2025. It will occur at 0700 GMT and 0200 US Eastern time.

Key officials from various governmental bodies will attend, including Pan Gongsheng from the People’s Bank of China and Lan Fo’an, finance minister, among others.

China’s Economic Objectives

They are expected to discuss strategies for meeting China’s economic objectives for 2025, along with addressing queries related to development reform, the fiscal budget, commerce, and financial markets.

This gathering comes at a time when investors are dissecting recent policy moves and assessing how they might reshape expectations. With Pan and Lan scheduled to appear, the agenda will not be limited to broad economic goals but will likely touch on finer details that could sway sentiment in specific sectors. Officials in attendance will have the opportunity to outline fresh initiatives or reinforce existing commitments, both of which will be watched closely.

For those following movements in financial markets, the words of these policymakers will carry weight. The central bank’s stance on liquidity and credit conditions will be one area of focus, given how these factors influence borrowing costs and investor confidence. Any reference to lending support or constraints on speculative activity may be interpreted as a clue about future monetary direction.

Lan’s role in the discussion will be equally important. With control over state expenditure, his comments on fiscal priorities could indicate whether authorities plan to boost investment in infrastructure, offer tax relief, or tighten public spending. If proposed policies align with previous statements, that could affirm existing market positions. However, any shift—whether due to external pressures or domestic concerns—could require adjustments in outlook.

Trade And Market Implications

Beyond specific remarks, the manner in which these officials address questions will be telling. Concise and direct responses could imply clarity in decision-making, whereas vague or conditional phrasing may lead to uncertainty about how committed they are to various approaches. Market participants will need to assess not just official pronouncements but also the underlying tone and consistency of their messaging.

With external trade conditions under scrutiny, discussions around commerce may attract more attention than in previous years. Global demand fluctuations, shifting supply chains, and adjustments to export policies are all factors that could influence upcoming strategies. If policymakers signal confidence in trade resilience, that may encourage a more stable outlook. Conversely, any suggestion of mounting headwinds could introduce fresh concerns.

Ultimately, this briefing serves as an opportunity for officials to assert control over the economic narrative, providing reassurances where needed while setting expectations for potential shifts in focus. How markets interpret these signals will depend not just on what is said, but how well it aligns with prior commitments and economic realities.

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, alongside Monetary Policy Committee members Huw Pill, Alan Taylor, and Megan Greene, will present before the Treasury Select Committee.

They will respond to questions related to the decision to reduce interest rates in February.

Economic Reasoning Behind The Rate Cut

Bailey and his colleagues will outline the economic reasoning behind the rate cut, addressing concerns about inflation, growth, and financial stability. The discussion will shed light on the assessment that led to the change in policy, with particular attention on price pressures and employment trends. Lawmakers may also press them on the expected pace of future adjustments and whether additional reductions could follow later this year.

Market participants will be listening closely for any indication of how committed the Bank remains to a looser stance. If Bailey signals confidence that inflation remains under control, expectations for further cuts could strengthen. Conversely, if he emphasises risks of a resurgence in price pressures, traders may pare back bets on additional easing. Comments from Pill, Taylor, and Greene will matter too, especially given differing views within the committee on how aggressively monetary support should be provided.

Beyond interest rates, the committee could explore the broader impact of policy choices on borrowing conditions and financial markets. If the evidence suggests rate cuts are supporting demand without igniting inflation, it may reinforce expectations that more reductions are on the way. However, any indication that underlying inflationary trends are picking up could challenge that assumption. Bailey’s tone will set the stage for how markets react in the short term.

Market Reactions And Future Expectations

For traders positioning themselves over the coming weeks, careful attention to statements made by Bailey and his colleagues will be essential. A firm stance on controlling inflation might disrupt bets on deeper easing, while a more relaxed approach could fuel confidence that borrowing costs will continue to fall. Watching how markets digest their comments will be just as important as the statements themselves.

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Japan’s finance minister Kato stated that he has discussed foreign exchange (FX) views with his US counterpart, emphasising that FX rates are market-driven and excessive volatility can harm economic stability.

Recent developments include Washington indicating a possible classification of currency manipulation as a nontariff barrier, potentially leading to counter levies. Additionally, Kato asserted that Japan is not intentionally devaluing the yen amidst concerns over currency depreciation raised during Trump’s administration regarding Japan and China.

Market Forces And Policy Responses

Kato has made it clear that currency values are shaped by market forces, but wild swings could unsettle broader economic conditions. Keeping that in mind, the exchange between him and American officials hints at growing unease over how foreign exchange movements might reshape trade discussions. The mention of excessive volatility suggests that policymakers are keeping a close watch on abrupt currency shifts. If movements become unpredictable, authorities may feel compelled to take steps to curb disruptions.

The stance from Washington introduces another angle. Labelling exchange rate practices as a barrier to trade would create new grounds for retaliatory measures. If such a designation were made, it could justify additional trade penalties. That would add another source of market pressure, particularly if cross-border relationships become strained. Traders should keep in mind that political decisions could feed into price action, potentially causing abrupt shifts. It is not just economic factors dictating movement; regulatory adjustments might also introduce changes.

In reaffirming that Japan has not driven its currency lower on purpose, Kato is pushing back against concerns voiced during earlier trade talks. Despite past scrutiny, he is making it clear that external forces, rather than internal policy shifts, are influencing the yen’s position. The reference to Trump’s administration suggests that these concerns are not entirely new. There is a history of scrutiny, even if current conditions are different. That should serve as a reminder that market movements do not happen in isolation. Historical tensions can resurface, often when currency adjustments gain attention.

Implications For Market Participants

For traders operating in this environment, these remarks provide useful guidance on what might lie ahead. If authorities feel compelled to act in response to market shifts, layers of complexity could be introduced. Pricing adjustments may not follow usual patterns if sudden policy directives enter the equation. The possibility of tariffs or countermeasures could also reshape momentum, making it necessary to track official communications closely. With discussions around manipulation reappearing, it would not be surprising if further statements emerge. Authorities rarely ignore such topics when pressure builds.

Additionally, market watchers should consider how policymakers interact outside of official channels. Behind-the-scenes negotiations often have considerable influence on decision-making. While public remarks set the tone, private discussions can sometimes steer actions before formal announcements are made. If volatility persists, speculation over intervention could intensify. That alone has the potential to cause choppiness in trading activity. Preparing for that now would be prudent. Long-term positioning should account for the fact that uncertainty remains a driving force.

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China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) announced several measures and targets for 2025. The GDP growth target is set at “around 5%” with the urban unemployment rate aimed at 5.5%.

The consumer price index (CPI) target is around 2%, down from the current 3%. The budget deficit is projected at 4% of GDP, with a national budget deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan. Local government special bonds are set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.9 trillion in 2024.

Market Reactions In China

Chinese equities showed mixed results; Hong Kong markets were up, while mainland markets declined. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser addressed trade war uncertainties, noting a gradual approach to rate cuts.

In the United States, President Trump’s State of the Union outlined plans for tax-deductible car loan interest, confirmed new tariffs, and called for the repeal of the Chips Act.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida maintained a hawkish outlook, stating interest rates will rise if economic forecasts are met. FX movements were mild, with the USD losing ground initially before regaining some value later in the session.

The targets and projections from China’s National People’s Congress set a clear path for economic policy in the coming year. A GDP growth aim of “around 5%” suggests policymakers expect stable expansion despite external pressures. The adjustment to inflation expectations, with the consumer price index now targeting 2%, signals growing confidence in their ability to contain price increases. The budget deficit, pegged at 4% of GDP, indicates continued fiscal support, though the impact of higher local government special bond issuance—now 4.4 trillion yuan—raises questions about debt sustainability.

Market response within China reflected this mixed outlook. While Hong Kong-listed shares performed well, mainland stocks showed weakness, likely reflecting domestic concerns or investor caution. International factors also played a role, particularly given external monetary policy signals.

In Australia, Hauser’s statements point to a patient approach in adjusting interest rates. While the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges global trade uncertainties, recent comments suggest no rush to shift policies. This measured stance may keep pressure on the Australian dollar, particularly if other central banks adjust their own policies more aggressively.

Us Fiscal And Trade Policy

The State of the Union address in the United States brought further clarity on trade policy and fiscal direction. Tax incentives related to car loan interest may support domestic consumption, while fresh tariffs indicate a continued focus on protecting domestic industry. The push to dismantle the Chips Act aligns with broader deregulation efforts, with potential implications for semiconductor supply chains.

Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank remains firmly positioned for potential rate hikes. Uchida has left little doubt that if current economic projections hold, monetary tightening will follow. The yen saw only limited movement, as FX markets digested these remarks alongside US dollar fluctuations. Early losses for the greenback gave way to partial recovery, highlighting the ongoing sensitivity to policy clarity across major economies.

Taken together, the policy objectives and central bank signals from multiple regions demand careful assessment. While some areas indicate steadier conditions, others introduce fresh volatility.

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