Saks Global is considering selling a 49% share in Bergdorf Goodman, aiming to raise about $1 billion. This strategy is intended to enhance value and reduce the company’s debt. Potential buyers may include sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East and other strategic investors. Bergdorf Goodman, known for its luxury products and outstanding service, is valued between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion. This news is likely a positive sign for Saks Global’s publicly traded parent company, possibly boosting its stock price. Derivative traders might explore short-term call options that expire in October or November 2025 to take advantage of this optimism. The $1 billion influx would directly help alleviate balance sheet issues that have affected the stock throughout the year. The timing seems good, as the luxury sector is recovering after a tough 2024. Data from August 2025 revealed that luxury spending in the Middle East, an important market for the sale, increased by 7% from the previous year, making sovereign wealth funds eager buyers. This external acknowledgment of Bergdorf’s value could prompt a re-evaluation of the entire parent company. We expect a noticeable rise in the implied volatility of the parent company’s options in the coming weeks. This increase means that prices for both puts and calls will likely go up, presenting opportunities for those selling premiums. Traders who anticipate a deal announcement might consider selling puts to capture that higher premium while also setting a lower price they’re willing to buy the stock. Reflecting on similar transactions, like the surge of luxury mergers and acquisitions in 2023, the first announcement typically leads to the biggest price jumps. The market usually reacts positively at first, pricing the deal at the upper end of the $2.5 billion range for Bergdorf. This could create a favorable situation for short-term bullish trades. However, as we approach October 2025, the focus will shift to the execution of the deal. Any news of a lower valuation or delays in securing a buyer could quickly reverse the stock’s gains. Therefore, traders may want to consider using spreads to limit their risk or plan to take profits on any initial gains before the final details are confirmed.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Key US inflation data has been delayed. The US announced that the consumer expenditures report, originally scheduled for Tuesday, will be rescheduled. This report is important because it helps determine the weighting of goods and services in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the upcoming year. According to Axios, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed this crucial annual report. They will update users with more information once it becomes available.

Concerns About Timing and Handling

This delay raises concerns about how inflation data is being managed. It highlights the challenges in collecting and processing economic information accurately. The hold-up in releasing the consumer expenditures data adds uncertainty to the market. This key report is essential for forecasting changes in the Consumer Price Index, which directly affects the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. This uncertainty might lead traders to expect increased volatility in the coming weeks. We anticipate a rise in option prices as implied volatility increases. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been relatively stable around 14 for the past month, could jump to the 18-20 range as traders seek protection. This pattern resembles what we saw in 2023 when unexpected inflation data led to significant market fluctuations.

Market Implications For Traders

For traders in interest rate derivatives, the future is now less clear. The CME FedWatch Tool, which recently indicated a 55% chance of a rate cut in early 2026, may become more unpredictable due to the delay in key data. We can expect wider bid-ask spreads in SOFR and Fed Funds futures as certainty about the Fed’s next move decreases. Reflecting on the sharp market drops following hot CPI reports in 2022, hedging has become crucial. Traders should consider buying protective put options on major indices like the S&P 500 to shield against any negative surprises once the data is released. Since the cost of this protection is likely to rise, acting quickly could be more cost-effective. This uncertainty is also likely to impact currency markets, especially the US dollar. A less certain outlook for US interest rates may weaken the dollar compared to other major currencies. Traders could use options to prepare for larger-than-expected moves in pairs like the EUR/USD, which has been stable for much of 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

ECB policymaker Edward Scicluna stated that current interest rates are fitting, with inflation expected to be just below 2%. He highlighted a neutral policy, suggesting no need for changes unless circumstances shift. Scicluna mentioned that inflation might not exactly hit 2%. He predicted a 1.9% inflation rate for 2027, which he said is not a concern. He maintained that any policy changes would only occur if there are significant changes in economic conditions.

ECB Colleagues Share Similar Views

In Copenhagen, other ECB officials echoed these thoughts on interest rates. Stournaras from Greece feels rates are in a “good equilibrium,” noting that inflation just below 2% doesn’t require further cuts. Kazaks from Latvia agrees, saying the current rates are suitable, even accepting minor fluctuations around the target. Kazaks added that while it’s unlikely there will be a rate cut in October, December could bring a review if new data supports it. Despite trade tensions and shifts in the euro, Scicluna trusts that the economy’s strength and fiscal spending support a steady policy, acting only if major changes arise. Overall, it seems interest rates will likely stay stable through autumn. The market has considered a slight chance of a rate cut by December, but these comments indicate that a cut is not likely. Consequently, short-term interest rate futures betting on lower rates seem pricey right now.

Policy Implications and Market Reactions

This steady policy is expected to support the euro since there’s no immediate push to cut rates and weaken it. With policymakers stressing stability, implied volatility in euro currency options might decrease further from already low levels. Selling this volatility using strategies like short strangles may be beneficial if the euro stays within a certain range. This outlook aligns with recent data, showing that August’s core inflation rate for the Eurozone was 1.9%, matching the central bank’s target. Additionally, the economy grew by a modest 0.3% in the second quarter, reflecting the resilience policymakers have referenced. This steady environment contrasts sharply with the aggressive rate changes seen in 2023 and 2024. For equity derivatives, this consistent policy removes a significant risk factor for the market. A stable interest rate climate supports stock valuations, suggesting limited short-term downsides for indices like the Euro Stoxx 50. We could see measures of market volatility, such as the VSTOXX index, currently around 15, drift even lower in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Concerns About US Demands

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is worried that accepting U.S. demands for $350 billion in investments without proper safeguards could lead to a financial crisis similar to the one in 1997. He pointed out that the main issue in trade talks is making sure the projects are commercially viable, as the U.S. wants to control how the money is spent. Lee noted that South Korea proposed a foreign exchange swap with the U.S. to reduce risks. However, Seoul lacks significant reserves or a swap line like Japan has. While there are no major disagreements with the U.S. on defense and security, unresolved trade issues could harm their relationship. In a different context, Lee downplayed worries about a U.S. immigration raid at a Hyundai plant, saying it was due to over-enthusiastic officials. He also warned about growing threats from North Korea and Russia working together and acknowledged that dialogue with North Korea will be tough. Lee stressed the urgent need for peace around the Taiwan Strait and finding solutions to global tensions. With the potential for a large $350 billion capital outflow from South Korea, we should brace for a significant drop in the Korean won. The lack of a U.S. currency swap line adds to the risk by taking away an important safeguard against a currency crisis. We’ve seen the USD/KRW exchange rate test the 1,450 level several times this past week. If this level is decisively broken, it could lead to a sharper decline. Pressure on the won, combined with the risk of unstable trade relations, suggests a bearish outlook for the KOSPI 200 index. We remember how quickly foreign capital left during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and history shows that such outflows can severely depress equity markets. In fact, Bank of Korea data released this month indicates that foreign investors have been net sellers of Korean stocks for the fourth week in a row, a trend that is likely to continue.

Investment Strategy

Given this situation, buying put options on the KOSPI 200 or major export-driven stocks like Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor appears wise. At the same time, we should think about going long on volatility by purchasing call options on the VKOSPI index. This index has already risen nearly 20% in September 2025, indicating that the market is reacting to the growing uncertainty ahead of U.S. trade talks. The broader geopolitical tensions involving Russia, North Korea, and the Taiwan Strait support a risk-off strategy. These issues create an unstable backdrop that could worsen any financial shocks from the U.S.-South Korea negotiations. This environment makes a strong case for holding safe-haven assets, suggesting that profits from short positions in Korea could be shifted into U.S. dollars or gold derivatives. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Martins Kazaks from the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that a slight inflation rate below 2% is acceptable. He emphasized the need to avoid hasty decisions. After making eight rate cuts, Kazaks feels that the current policy is in a good place, suggesting that any further adjustments should only happen if absolutely necessary. Kazaks mentioned that inflation close to 2% shows the ECB is achieving its goals. He indicated that there might not be any rate changes in October, but new economic forecasts in December could offer more clarity. If changes are needed, a small rate cut could align with the ECB’s existing plans, similar to the last rate increase in 2023.

Potential Risks

Kazaks also highlighted some risks, including a strong euro, lower Chinese imports, and a new emissions trading system that could affect inflation. He expects inflation to remain around 2%, with minor changes not requiring any policy updates. He shared these thoughts during a meeting of European finance leaders in Copenhagen. Other discussions at the meeting highlighted that future rate cuts would depend on major changes in inflation outlook. The ECB’s cautious strategy may provide stability for European stocks and currency without causing significant fluctuations in the near term. Since the European Central Bank has signaled a clear pause in rate changes, we should rethink any plans based on further interest rate cuts in the near future. The latest Eurostat flash estimate for August 2025 shows inflation at 2.1%, supporting the view that the bank’s goal has been met for now. This indicates that the period of aggressive easing seen in early 2025 is likely over.

Traders In Currency Derivatives

For those trading currency derivatives, the ECB’s current stance should support the euro. A lower chance of more rate cuts eases downside pressure, which may lead to a drop in implied volatility for EUR/USD options. This environment makes it attractive to sell volatility, such as writing short-dated EUR puts. In the interest rate markets, this suggests that futures contracts predicting an October cut are overly optimistic. We now see a slight flattening of the short end of the yield curve as the market adjusts to a “wait-and-see” approach. The attention now turns entirely to the ECB’s fresh projections in December, where even a potential change is viewed as a minor adjustment rather than a new easing cycle. This stable outlook benefits European equity derivatives, likely reducing the high volatility experienced in 2024. With the EURO STOXX 50 index up about 9% this year, the easy gains from monetary easing are likely behind us. Selling index call options against a long portfolio could be a wise way to generate income in a possibly stagnant market. This strategy recalls the pause that followed the final rate hike in September 2023, which allowed markets to adapt to a new reality. The idea of implementing one small cut to reinforce a baseline scenario suggests that policy now focuses on fine-tuning. As a result, we should shift our positions from directional bets based on central bank actions to strategies that benefit from lower volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking to parliament. He is giving a prepared speech and answering questions. The RBA plans to gradually lower its cash rate, but no cuts are expected at the upcoming meeting later this month. In China, the People’s Bank of China will announce its Loan Prime Rate decision soon. Most expect interest rates to remain at 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for the five-year term.

Economic Calendar Insights

The main policy rate for the People’s Bank of China is its Open Market Operations repo rate, currently at 1.4%. These updates are part of the economic calendar in Asia as of September 22, 2025. With Governor Bullock speaking, we look for hints of a slow, data-driven approach to rate cuts. The cash rate has dropped from its peak of 3.10% in 2024, following a decrease in inflation to 3.2%, which is still above target. Since no cut is expected this month, the RBA shows it is in no rush, especially with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.5% in the latest data. This cautious approach from the RBA indicates that implied volatility on the Australian dollar may be overvalued in the short term. Selling out-of-the-money options on the AUD/USD could be a smart move to earn premiums while the currency remains stable. This strategy worked well during earlier periods in 2024 when the RBA communicated its policies clearly, leading to minimal currency fluctuations.

Regional Monetary Policies

The People’s Bank of China’s decision further supports the idea of regional stability, as steady rates are widely anticipated. China’s Q2 2025 GDP growth of 4.8% indicates a fragile recovery. Authorities are leaning toward targeted support rather than broad monetary easing that could weaken the yuan. This approach likely limits the rise of Australian commodities, affecting the Australian dollar. In this environment, using interest rate futures to prepare for a slow decline in the Australian cash rate over the next six months seems wise. Traders could explore calendar spreads in ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, betting that the market is too aggressive in forecasting near-term cuts, but reasonably aligns with predictions for mid-2026. This perspective aligns with the RBA’s historically cautious nature, as observed from 2023 to 2025, where they act with care, except in crisis situations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

On Monday morning, the market has low liquidity, but it usually improves as Asian markets open. Early trading can lead to price swings due to these thin conditions. The indicative foreign exchange rates have stayed stable compared to Friday’s levels. Key currency pairs are: – EUR/USD at 1.1746 – USD/JPY at 147.93 – GBP/USD at 1.3479

Current Exchange Rates

Other rates include: – USD/CHF at 0.7955 – USD/CAD at 1.3780 – AUD/USD at 0.6597 – NZD/USD at 0.5867 These rates reflect market conditions on September 22, 2025. Traders should be cautious due to potential volatility. With low liquidity this Monday, sharp moves could occur. Current exchange rates suggest the US dollar may continue to weaken, a trend seen throughout 2025. This decline seems linked to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts earlier this year, responding to US inflation dropping to a steady 2.5% after the turmoil of 2022-2023. The dollar’s weakness is most noticeable against the euro and pound, but the situation with the Japanese yen is different. USD/JPY remains high near 148 because the interest rate gap is still large, despite the lower Fed funds rate. The US 10-year Treasury yield is around 3.5%, while Japanese government bonds yield only 1.1%, making the carry trade appealing for now.

Strategic Overview

This indicates that traders in derivatives should consider strategies that take advantage of a slow but selective decline of the dollar. Buying call options on EUR/USD could be a good move, betting on expected hawkish policies from the ECB against a dovish Fed. Meanwhile, selling out-of-the-money puts on USD/JPY may be a smart way to collect premiums, assuming the Bank of Japan won’t surprise the markets with aggressive changes. However, the ongoing weakness in the Australian and New Zealand dollars raises concerns about global growth. China’s recent manufacturing PMI data showed a reading of 49.8, indicating slight contraction and reviving fears about its property sector, first seen in 2023. This means while we can be bearish on the dollar, it may be wise to use options to protect against a wider economic slowdown. The strong Swiss franc, with USD/CHF at 0.7955, reflects a cautious market mood. Thus, traders should be careful not to take on too much risk, given the clear demand for safe havens. Opting for option spreads instead of outright positions could help manage costs and define risks as we head into an uncertain autumn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Yannis Stournaras, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated that the central bank is not planning further rate cuts at this time. Major changes in inflation or growth would be necessary for any easing, based on his recent comments. Stournaras, who is also the Governor of the Bank of Greece, mentioned that inflation is expected to stay below 2% for several years. He explained that this scenario alone does not warrant any rate reductions, calling the current policy a “good equilibrium.”

Current Policy Stance

In their recent meetings, the ECB chose to keep borrowing costs steady. They believe that price pressures and risks are manageable. If this view changes, they would adjust their policies accordingly. While there are ongoing risks from tariffs and geopolitical issues, these aren’t considered serious enough to justify further cuts. The ECB predicts an inflation rate of 1.7% for next year, increasing to 1.9% by 2027. By 2028, inflation should approach, but stay below, 2%. Stournaras pointed out that an additional minor rate cut would mainly be symbolic, lacking a significant impact on the market. A stronger euro does not seem likely to change the current policy, indicating that the ECB is committed to its approach unless there is a major economic shift. With the belief that we are nearing the end of interest rate cuts, expectations for more easing should be reduced. The recent flash inflation figure of 1.8% for August 2025 supports this steady policy outlook. Traders may want to reconsider positions that were betting on lower borrowing costs in the Eurozone for the rest of the year.

Impact on Markets

This stable policy boosts support for the euro, especially since the cycle of rate cuts seen through mid-2024 is likely over. Options strategies that take advantage of a stronger or steady euro against currencies with uncertain central bank policies might be beneficial. The euro’s recent strength, staying above 1.09 against the U.S. dollar, reflects this lower chance of further cuts. For equity markets, the lack of additional monetary stimulus suggests limited short-term gains. With Eurozone GDP growth for Q2 2025 at a modest 0.4%, the economic environment does not support aggressive upside bets. Strategies like buying put options on the EURO STOXX 50 index could be a smart way to protect portfolios from risks associated with geopolitical uncertainty. The central bank’s “wait and see” approach is likely to reduce market volatility in the upcoming weeks. This creates a setting where selling options could be profitable, provided there are no major economic surprises. The VSTOXX index, which measures European equity volatility, has already dropped over 15% in the last quarter, indicating that the market is accepting this stable policy period. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The upcoming week is packed with important events, including US PCE data, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision, and multiple inflation reports. On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain its Loan Prime Rates. Tuesday will feature the Riksbank’s announcement, with expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, plus the release of preliminary PMIs from the Eurozone, UK, and US. On Wednesday, we will see announcements from the Czech National Bank (CNB) and Australian CPI data. Thursday is significant as both the SNB and Banxico will announce their rate decisions. The SNB is expected to keep rates at 0.0%, while Banxico may cut by 25 bps. Additionally, US Durable Goods, GDP, and PCE data will be released that day.

Focus On PCE And Inflation Reports

On Friday, all eyes will be on the Tokyo CPI and the US PCE for August. Analysts expect a slight increase in core PCE. Last month, Tokyo’s CPI was reported at 2.6% annually. The Federal Reserve anticipates core PCE inflation to rise by 0.28-0.35% month-over-month (M/M). The Fed will also consider how tariffs impact inflation, with headline PCE expected at 2.7% year-over-year (Y/Y) for August. This data will influence monetary policy expectations, as markets look for potential rate changes in different economies while keeping a close watch on inflation metrics. The US PCE inflation data is the highlight of the week, but we think the Federal Reserve is now more concerned with risks in the jobs market. The VIX index remains stable around a low 14, indicating that the market isn’t ready for any big surprises. This could create a favorable environment for option sellers who think the data will be consistent with the Fed’s recent views.

Regional Economic Indicators

In the Eurozone, the flash PMIs on Tuesday will be essential for assessing the region’s weak recovery. Recent Eurostat data showed that industrial production was flat over the last quarter. A reading that meets expectations will likely keep the European Central Bank (ECB) from taking action. We believe there is limited benefit in buying short-term call options on the EUR/USD before this release since a significant upside surprise seems unlikely. The UK’s PMI data presents a more tangled picture, with high inflation paired with a declining growth outlook. Recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a surprising 0.8% drop in retail sales last month, which could lead to volatility in sterling pairs. We will look for chances to buy GBP puts to protect against a negative growth shock that could put the Bank of England in a tough spot. The Riksbank’s decision on Tuesday carries clear event risk, as the market is divided on whether it will cut rates now or defer until November. We saw a similar uncertain period early in 2024 that caused the Swedish krona to fluctuate sharply. Traders might consider strategies like buying strangles on the EUR/SEK pair to profit from significant moves regardless of the outcome. In China, the central bank is expected to maintain its key lending rates, but we remain cautious about economic strains. Reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicate weakness in the property sector, which continues to affect consumer sentiment, even with government support. This suggests any rebounds in Hang Seng index futures due to hopes for future stimulus may not last long. The policy gap between the SNB and Banxico appears set to persist this week. The SNB is expected to hold rates at zero, boosting the franc’s attractiveness, while Banxico is likely to implement another 25 bps cut. This divergence in policy, which has been evident throughout 2025, supports bearish strategies on the Mexican peso compared to the Swiss franc. Lastly, we will monitor inflation reports from Australia and Tokyo to predict future central bank actions. Australian inflation has been stubbornly high, with core measures often surprising upward, meaning a strong report could lead to sharp shifts in interest rate futures. If Tokyo’s CPI readings remain firm, it would add pressure on the Bank of Japan, potentially triggering further sell-offs in Japanese Government Bond futures. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The SEC is suggesting an end to quarterly earnings reports, which could change how financial information is shared. In Canada, retail sales in July dropped by 0.8%, contrary to an expected rise of 1.5%. Meanwhile, the US GDP Nowcast increased slightly to 2.1%, and gold prices rose by $39, reaching $3683.

Currency And Commodity Movements

Gold’s rally and positive news from US-China trade talks strengthened the Canadian dollar (CAD), making it the top performer, while the British pound (GBP) struggled. The US oil rig count increased by two, but WTI crude oil fell by 84 cents to $62.73. The S&P 500 gained 31 points, closing at 6664, setting a new record and continuing its upward trend since the financial crisis. Notable stock performers included Oracle (+4.3%), Amgen (+3.3%), and Apple (+3.1%), while Intel dropped by 3%. In the currency market, USD/JPY remained unchanged despite expected interest rate changes from the Bank of Japan. Stocks stabilized during trading before gaining momentum, setting new records for indices. While the stock market keeps reaching new highs, it’s wise to use options for protection against rapid changes in investor sentiment. The S&P 500 is up over 30% this year, and the VIX is at 14.5, a level often seen before short-term market downturns. We can consider buying put options on major indices like the SPX or SPY with late October or November expirations to safeguard our long positions.

Implications Of SEC Proposal

The SEC’s proposal to end quarterly earnings reports could significantly impact how we trade company profits. If approved, implied volatility for options related to the new semi-annual reporting dates might increase. Over the coming weeks, we might want to buy long-dated straddles or strangles on companies expected to grow significantly, as fewer updates could result in larger price fluctuations when information is finally made public. Gold has exceeded $3,600 an ounce, a development that signals serious inflation concerns. The latest Consumer Price Index for August shows core inflation stubbornly at 3.8%, challenging the Fed’s view that price pressures are temporary. Considering this, we should look into call options on gold miners or gold ETFs to capitalize on the trend, as the market seems to be anticipating ongoing currency depreciation. Positive news on US-China trade is beneficial for the market, and the Canadian dollar’s strength in response is especially notable. Despite poor retail sales data in Canada, the loonie strengthened, indicating how responsive currency markets are to trade news. We could take advantage of this by trading options on currency pairs like AUD/USD, which is also sensitive to China’s economic performance. The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, but the 10-year Treasury yield is still rising, creating a complicated landscape for interest rate derivatives. We remember how the Fed had to change its stance back in 2022 and 2023 when inflation turned out to be stickier than expected. Traders should exercise caution and could explore options on bond ETFs like TLT to prepare for the possibility that the bond market is accurately anticipating higher inflation. Crude oil prices remain unexpectedly low around $62 a barrel, even with a modest increase in rig counts. This suggests that the market is more concerned with global growth issues than with supply, particularly as the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest since the early 1980s. Low prices could create a chance to buy long-dated call options on oil futures, betting that any positive economic surprises or supply issues could lead to a sharp price increase. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now