Royal Bank has a strong reputation in the Zacks Banks – Foreign sector thanks to its consistent earnings performance. In the last two quarters, the bank achieved an average earnings surprise of 7.76%. In the latest quarter, Royal Bank was expected to earn $2.28 per share but surprised everyone by reporting $2.55 per share, an 11.84% jump. The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise, with earnings of $2.25 per share against an estimate of $2.17, giving a 3.69% surprise. Current estimates for Royal Bank are improving, showing a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or higher typically do better than expected. Royal Bank’s Earnings ESP is currently +1.49%, indicating that analysts feel positive about the bank’s upcoming earnings. The next earnings report is expected on May 29, 2025. A positive Earnings ESP combined with a high Zacks Rank suggests that another earnings beat may be on the horizon. It’s important to note that a negative Earnings ESP doesn’t mean a company will miss earnings; it simply makes predictions less accurate. Checking a company’s Earnings ESP before results can help in making informed investment choices. This method aids in spotting stocks worth considering before their earnings reports. This article highlights how Royal Bank has consistently outperformed earnings estimates, known as an “earnings beat.” Over the last two quarters, it has surpassed Wall Street estimates by an average of nearly 8%. Analysts had expected $2.28 per share, but Royal Bank delivered $2.55—almost a 12% difference. Such consistent performance attracts attention. In the prior quarter, the bank reported $2.25 against an expectation of $2.17, translating to a smaller but still important 3.69% beat. This consistency is particularly significant in an industry where analysts are often conservative. It shows that Royal Bank has exceeded expectations twice in a row. At the moment, signs are looking optimistic again. The Earnings ESP metric helps track the difference between the most accurate estimate and the general consensus. Royal Bank currently has an ESP of +1.49%, indicating that top forecasts are slightly above the average expectations. Historically, when stocks have a positive ESP and favorable rankings—like a Zacks Rank of 3 or better—they usually perform well around earnings reports. With the May 29 earnings release approaching, there could be more opportunities for positioning. Although ESP does not guarantee outcomes, an upward trend alongside analyst rankings is a pattern worth noting. A negative ESP can still lead to surprises, but it usually complicates predictions. Monitoring analyst sentiment isn’t just about keeping up with headlines; it’s about assessing whether the recent momentum continues. A well-timed strategy based on forecast differences could provide advantages before announcements. Small changes in ESP, like the current rise to +1.49%, should be observed over the coming weeks. An increase in analyst outlook close to the reporting date suggests that estimates are being revised based on updated models or market conditions. These changes, even if small, can influence trading strategies, especially for those looking at short-term movements. Given the previous quarter’s results and the trend in estimates, it may make sense to track updates more closely. The data suggests that further changes from consensus projections are possible. Instead of betting on outcomes, being prepared for market reactions is the real benefit of understanding current sentiment. Of course, disciplined execution remains essential. Traders focused on derivatives might want to rethink their volatility assumptions or adjust strike prices if implied volatility starts to change before May 29. Opportunities like this don’t often last long—being prepared is key.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US Dollar is expected to test 7.1650 against the Chinese Yuan, but it’s unlikely to reach strong support at 7.1500. The outlook for the dollar is negative, with a slight chance of a longer-term decline. Recently, the US Dollar dropped to 7.1720, down by 0.46%. This decrease may stabilize soon, with resistance levels at 7.1870 and 7.1980. The stronger support level does not seem to be a concern right now.

1-3 Week Forecast

In the next 1-3 weeks, the US Dollar may fluctuate between 7.1850 and 7.2450. As long as it stays below 7.2070, the trend is likely to move downward, potentially reaching 7.1500. The recent drop in the Dollar-Yuan pair shows a small decline, closing weekly at around 7.1720 after falling almost half a percent. Resistance levels near 7.1870 and 7.1980 could cap any rebounds. Selling pressure hasn’t been strong, but weaknesses are still present, especially if 7.2070 holds. Recent trading shows that sellers are acting on strength rather than pushing major breaks lower, indicating that bullish momentum is fading. Looking ahead, we expect sideways movement to continue between approximately 7.1850 and 7.2450. The upper limit does not indicate a breakout is likely unless momentum increases. Until 7.2070 is decisively broken upwards, any upward shifts are expected to face resistance. This level marks the line between temporary pullbacks and a more consistent upward trend.

Longer-Term Outlook

For longer-term traders, the downside trend suggests a growing discomfort with Dollar strength. While 7.1500 remains a key support level, it is still some distance away from the current stabilization price. Entering positions at this level may be premature unless market volatility rises significantly. Resistance levels are clearer than support, making it less likely we’ll see an upward breakout. Currently, technical signals do not indicate strong upward momentum. We advise treating any rebounds within the prevailing range as chances to reassess positions, rather than signals for major reversals. It’s wise to keep positions light and set clear levels, ideally outside the range between 7.1850 and 7.2070. The chances of significant movement are low without new indicators, so attention to data releases or policy comments could be more important than typical technical analysis. In summary, momentum has weakened. Unless prices can push convincingly beyond the 7.2070 mark, the general outlook is negative. We will adjust our positions accordingly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Trade Negotiations Timeline

Donald Trump recently announced that he would impose 50% tariffs on EU goods starting June 1 due to stalled negotiations, claiming EU discrimination. However, after talks with the President of the European Commission, these tariffs were postponed until July 9 to allow for further discussions. The delay of reciprocal tariffs by 90 days and positive dialogue with the UK and China has eased market worries. Still, the threat of a trade war lingers, with Trump’s EU tariffs much higher than previously indicated. The UK-US trade deal, while criticized, now looks more promising than potential deals with the EU. As the tariff deadline approaches, uncertainty remains, but there’s hope for a deal by July 9. Although previous tariffs are paused, it’s unclear what has been settled. Continued negotiations may lead to more market fluctuations, especially as the 90-day delay nears its conclusion. While Trump’s tariff delay offers temporary relief, the risk is still present. The 50% tariff rate surprised many due to its steep rise from usual levels, indicating a negotiation strategy rather than a final decision. This suggests an effort to apply pressure — it’s more than just trade; it’s about leverage. The move to delay until July 9, following talks with the Commission President, gives a brief window. Any developments before then will likely show positioning rather than a true agreement. The postponement of reciprocal measures from the EU for 90 days indicates that both sides are cautious of escalation, yet not fully confident in their discussions.

Market Reactions and Strategies

Markets first reacted with relief, but then slowly realized the underlying issues remain unresolved — they’ve just been postponed. Traders in derivatives markets should see this delay as a pause, not a resolution. Volatility is expected to increase as the new deadline approaches. Risk spreads could widen again, especially in sectors closely related to auto or manufacturing exports. Recent coordination with China and the UK explains why the market hasn’t experienced a broader correction. Their agreements — or at least the perception of progress — have helped stabilize sentiment. However, the trading relationship with the EU still carries significant weight. There’s a deeper interconnection across industries, and past disruptions in this area have affected a wider range of asset classes, creating uncertainty in allocation. For those dealing with options or futures linked to eurozone sectors, this delay presents a chance to reassess margin exposure while there is less pressure on order books. However, the future path will likely be influenced by headlines. Any hints of retaliation from either side should not be ignored, as they often foreshadow rapid pricing changes. We have seen this before. In 2018, nominal announcements quickly became concrete actions, and central banks’ resistance did not fully counteract the pricing distortions that followed. Those exposed to EU-US differentials, especially in equities, should analyze how these mechanisms worked back then. Patterns are re-emerging now, with even more aggression in the starting figures. It’s important not to assume that the extension signals a softer stance. Tariffs of this magnitude are significant threats. Fluctuations in risk-on signals across sectors like energy, aerospace, and agri-business often stem from slight changes in trade talks. As we approach July, implied volatility on related contracts is likely to increase. Although repositioning might be premature before July 9, now is the time to refine hedging strategies instead of waiting. It’s better to secure protection early than scramble for liquidity when news breaks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US Dollar may weaken against the Japanese Yen, with analysts watching a key range between 142.10 and 143.45. A crucial level is at 141.70, which currently offers strong support. If it breaks, further declines could happen. Recently, the US Dollar fell to a low of 142.41, which was unexpected as many anticipated stability. However, there hasn’t been a significant increase in selling pressure, suggesting the Dollar may stabilize unless it drops below essential support.

Resistance Levels

There’s noted resistance at 144.00, down from a previous level of 145.05. If this resistance breaks, the Dollar’s weakness might stabilize, but the overall outlook still leans towards potential decline. Though oversold conditions could lead to temporary consolidation, ongoing monitoring is essential. Currently, the Dollar has dropped more than expected against the Yen, going below levels where consolidation was anticipated. The move to 142.41 has not resulted in increased selling, indicating that downside momentum is contained for now. Support at 141.70 is significant. It has held in the past, showing it plays an important role beyond just the chart. If this level fails, traders should reassess their positions. While we haven’t seen major selling yet, that could change quickly if the Dollar weakens further. Weaker exchange rates might attract buyers when the market is saturated. However, any plans to buy near or just below the 142.10–143.45 range should focus on how the 141.70 level reacts. Without clear signs of strength there, buyers may enter too early. There’s no need to rush given the short-term volatility.

Market Strategy

Resistance around 144.00 has firmed, creating a ceiling that might be tested if the market stabilizes. The previous level of 145.05 is now out of reach, which is important. Regaining 144.00 doesn’t guarantee momentum has shifted but could indicate that weak positions are being cleared. In that case, it’s crucial to watch for a consolidation phase with a clear direction, especially on hourly closes. From our perspective, we should also monitor how USDJPY performs not just at the boundaries of this short-term channel but around volume-weighted averages that often matter in these conditions. A solid break combined with increased volume could quickly change positioning. Until we see that, and with uncertainty in direction, it’s wise to approach rallies with caution and view dips as short-term unless the 141.70 support is convincingly broken with high volume. Focus on reactions, not anticipations, for timing decisions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US Dollar is struggling to break past the 0.8225 resistance level while inside a downward channel. This suggests that bears are in control, with a key focus on holding above the 0.8200 support level. Although there has been some positive sentiment lately due to a pause on European tariffs, the Dollar is still having trouble against the Swiss Franc. Concerns about US fiscal policy are influencing this trend, especially as the Senate discusses tax legislation. At the moment, the US Dollar shows mixed strength against major currencies, performing best against the Japanese Yen. Its performance against others is fluctuating: it is down by -0.12% compared to the Euro, -0.23% against the British Pound, and up by 0.27% compared to the Canadian Dollar.

Technical Outlook Suggests Bearish Trend

The technical analysis for USD/CHF indicates ongoing lower highs and lows, marking a bearish trend. With the 4-hour RSI below 50, bulls have failed twice to surpass the 0.8225 resistance, which hints at a possible retest of the 0.8200 support. If 0.8200 breaks, the next target could be around 0.8170, and then the 161.8% retracement level at 0.8150. If bulls manage to break above 0.8225, attention could shift to 0.8270. Investors should do their own research before making financial decisions. This information is for educational purposes and may include forward-looking statements. Errors might exist, and there’s a risk of losing some or all of your investment. The US Dollar continues to face selling pressure within its downward channel. Despite attempts to recover, sellers are maintaining control. Every effort to exceed 0.8225 has failed, reflecting a lack of demand for higher prices at this point. This resistance level is well defended, especially since bulls have been turned away without much challenge. Technically, the downward pattern is quite clear, reflecting lower highs and lower lows. This trend often signifies that the downward movement is not over yet. The RSI staying under 50 shows that the momentum is not leaning towards buyers.

Concerns Over US Fiscal Policy

There is renewed downward pressure around the 0.8200 mark. If this level breaks, the next support could be around 0.8170, potentially leading to further declines toward 0.8150. The 161.8% Fibonacci level is significant and often acts as a point for taking profits or strong market reactions. This weakness persists even with a generally positive risk sentiment, which is surprising. The market welcomed the pause on European tariffs, but this hasn’t helped the Dollar in this pair. The underlying weakness is driven by concerns over US fiscal policy, particularly regarding tax directions. Ongoing Senate discussions have left some investors anxious about Washington’s ability to maintain stability. The Dollar’s strength is not consistent. It is performing well against the Yen, mainly due to the ongoing yield gap and the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance. However, it’s losing a bit against other currencies. A decline of -0.12% against the Euro or -0.23% against the British Pound might seem minor daily, but collectively, these drops indicate weakening support. The small gain of +0.27% against the Canadian Dollar seems more linked to oil prices and growth expectations than overall strength. For those planning their positions, the current trend direction is crucial. There isn’t much indication of a strong reversal unless the 0.8225 level is broken and maintained. If 0.8200 gives way, there’s a risk of further declines towards lower extension targets. This situation requires careful monitoring, especially during low-liquidity times when movements can be more pronounced. When analyzing these trends, it’s wise to consider price changes in context with the broader market—taking into account the risk sentiment overall. The disconnect between the recent tariff news and currency movements suggests deeper issues, possibly related to policy uncertainty. For now, price action shows that confidence is not currently leaning towards the Dollar in this pairing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Donald Trump has announced a possible 25% tariff on smartphones from a major US tech company unless they are made in the US for the American market. This is a shift from previous actions, as it focuses on one specific company instead of targeting an entire industry or region. Following this announcement, the company’s stock dropped. Analysts believe that these tariffs could raise production costs, which might push companies to move manufacturing to the US. If companies cannot pass these costs onto consumers, they may have to reduce their profit margins. The resulting drop in share prices and margins could affect dividends and share buybacks.

Impact On US Dollar

This potential tariff is unlikely to strengthen the US dollar, especially with existing concerns about US government bonds and national debt. Companies may struggle if production costs rise without the ability to increase prices. Overall market sentiment and currency values continue to shift due to ongoing tariff discussions and government actions. Trump’s tariff plan, specifically targeting a major tech company, deviates from the usual practice of imposing tariffs based on countries or industries. This more focused strategy applies pressure on an individual company, influencing strategic decisions beyond current production practices. The message is clear: begin manufacturing devices in the US or face significant import penalties. The market reacted swiftly, with the company’s stock falling, indicating investor concern about future prospects and signaling broader implications for other companies in similar situations. This situation goes beyond smartphones and manufacturing. It questions whether profit expectations based on current global supply chains can continue. With a potential 25% tariff added to import values, the stability that companies have relied on is at risk. Shifting production to the US is challenging due to higher wages, initial setup costs, regulatory compliance, and complex logistics. If these extra costs cannot be covered by higher prices for consumers, companies may see smaller profits. This would affect their ability to reward shareholders, leading to scrutiny over dividends and possibly reducing or halting buyback programs. In recent days, we have observed a tug-of-war between political posturing and fundamental business conditions. The new twist here is the clash between corporate strategies and political ambitions. While tariffs as a tool for influence are common, focusing them on specific retail electronics pricing, especially before an election, introduces uncertainty. Options tied to tech stocks are already showing higher implied volatility. For those using leveraged investments, it’s crucial to evaluate not just direct holdings but also related materials and semiconductor companies in the same supply chain.

Challenges In Currency Markets

Currency markets are not offering much relief. Despite the aggressive trade policy, the US dollar is weighed down by uncertainty about national debt and fiscal responsibility. Bond yields are not providing the usual support for the dollar. In this environment, a weaker dollar does not help offset higher costs of imported materials, especially those sourced under existing contracts. Companies that had stable cost expectations with long-term hedges may need to adjust more quickly than anticipated. Signs are emerging that pricing in foreign exchange derivatives is starting to account for this policy risk, though it is not fully integrated yet. This is not just a reaction to headlines; it reflects a recalculation of assumptions that had settled comfortably over years of minimal interference. Those monitoring weekly and monthly price changes should not only rely on past tariff behaviors. This is not a conflict with China or broad EU sectors—it’s a shift focused inward. If tariffs are applied solely by the US, it changes the incentives for investment. Decisions about spending on new factories or expanding the workforce become uncertain. This uncertainty trickles down to futures and options, where valuation models must now consider a wider range of potential profit outcomes depending on how quickly such policies are enforced or reversed. We are closely monitoring real-time supply chain data. Changes in order placements, contract renegotiations, and adjustments to just-in-time inventory could signal upcoming margin squeezes or efforts to ramp up production before tariffs take effect. We will first see these signals in producer guidance, followed by quarterly earnings. Currently, spreads on derivative instruments tied to heavily-traded tech companies indicate that the market is adjusting, but not consistently. While volatility remains high in short-term options, the need for delta hedging may rise as dealers watch for price changes due to new tariffs or retaliatory actions. Strategies based on stable volatility might need reassessment. At the very least, managing gamma exposure will require more active oversight through the upcoming rounds of policy discussions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The USD/JPY continues to drop as tariff fears grow, leading more investors to seek safe haven assets like the yen (JPY), Swiss franc (CHF), and gold. Currently, the currency pair sits around 142.85, with more chances for further declines. Key technical indicators show support levels for USD/JPY at 142, 141.60, and 139.90. Resistance is noted at 144.40/60 and 145.70, influenced by the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, respectively.

Market Statements and Warnings

General market cautions highlight risks and uncertainties tied to future forecasts. The information here is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as a trading or investment recommendation. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own research before making financial decisions. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, and readers are responsible for their investment outcomes. Warnings include trading risks, which could lead to total investment loss. If you’re unsure about foreign exchange trading, it’s wise to seek independent financial advice. Views expressed may differ from official policies and are not verified for accuracy. As USD/JPY falls due to growing tariff concerns, the dollar faces ongoing pressure while investors seek safety. The market is increasingly risk-averse—caution is evident across many asset classes. The yen and traditional safe havens, like the Swiss franc and gold, are seeing increased demand. Historically, when global trade tensions rise, investors tend to focus on preserving capital by switching to less volatile assets.

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

The technical picture reveals more about this market movement. The pair is currently near 142.85, close to the support level at 142. If this level breaks decisively—and recent moves show weaker dollar strength—we could see prices fall to 141.60 and possibly test 139.90. These levels have historically acted as turning points during buying spurts in the yen and will be closely monitored in upcoming sessions. Resistance levels also matter. The 21-day moving average is acting as resistance around 144.40–144.60, followed by the 50-day moving average around 145.70. These averages are significant for medium-term strategies, and reactions near these levels could trigger buying or selling. Currently, there’s less upward momentum for USD/JPY, suggesting bears may take charge unless some external factors change this trend. Timing is critical now. Strategies based on momentum should be reassessed because of ongoing geopolitical concerns. As volatility rises—especially in currency pairs involving the yen—risk management needs special attention. Traders involved in short-term positions should monitor levels more closely than usual. This sentiment is part of a broader picture. Global markets are showing early signs of stress, with sharp intra-day swings happening between FX pairs and commodities. Gold often moves in reverse to yield expectations and overall risk appetite. The yen’s recent strength reflects not just technical factors, but growing market sentiment. It’s a good time to rethink assumptions about stability in USD-denominated currencies. Liquidity can be thin during off-peak hours, which may lead to sharper movements. Range trading strategies could struggle if those support levels fail, particularly if the USD continues to weaken against other major currencies. Having clear execution plans—like stop placements that account for volatility—can help manage surprises. If prices drift down gradually instead of crashing, we might misinterpret brief pullbacks as reversals. Patience and discipline in these situations often lead to success, especially when market sentiment is strong in one direction for a long time. Scheduled data releases in the next two weeks could lead to sudden changes. Any open positions before those events should carry an appropriate level of risk. We prefer not to heavily rely on short-term expectations but instead to adjust our strategies based on confirmed price behavior. This approach emphasizes awareness—not certainty. Identifying support and resistance isn’t enough; we must observe how prices interact with those levels rather than sticking to rigid forecasts. Confirmation is crucial in market environments influenced by broader economic concerns. We maintain our focus, applying strategies that have worked before, and avoid overcommitting until we have clearer insights. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shows some potential to grow against the US Dollar (USD), but its current overbought state may hold it back from surpassing 0.6030. For the NZD to continue rising, it needs to consistently stay above 0.6030. In the short term, range trading was expected, but the NZD had a significant increase. While it may rise further, it currently struggles to overcome the main resistance at 0.6030, with another resistance level at 0.6010. Support is seen at 0.5970, and if it falls below 0.5950, it could signal a slowdown.

Short Term And Medium Term Analysis

Over the next one to three weeks, earlier estimates suggested a range between 0.5865 and 0.5985. Recently, the NZD peaked at 0.5989 and closed at 0.5986, marking a 1.50% increase. For this momentum to continue, breaking through the 0.6030 resistance is key, especially if support holds steady at 0.5920. This content includes forward-looking statements and highlights various market risks. It’s for informational purposes only and does not offer trading advice or opinions from the author or related parties. The current data shows a tension between short-term excitement and medium-term barriers for the NZD/USD pair. The recent sharp rise caught many off guard, especially since a sideways trend was expected earlier. However, this rise faces resistance at 0.6010 and, more importantly, at 0.6030. Those tracking momentum and price changes at key levels should watch to see if support around 0.5950 holds. If the NZD falls decisively below 0.5950, a downtrend could follow in the near term. Without fresh support above 0.5920, buying strength may struggle, pushing the pair closer to the lower end of recent projections.

Technical Analysis And Market Signals

Chart analysts will note that the recent high of 0.5989 has tested and exceeded the earlier cap of 0.5985. With this boundary now crossed, it’s time to reassess market sentiment. But confirmation comes only if the price can hold above 0.6030. Without this breakthrough, bullish continuation is limited, keeping any short-term buying interest restrained. The 1.50% rise indicates strong intraday demand, and closing at 0.5986 is important. This indicates more than just flirting with resistance; it pushed into it. This move shows potential shifts in market positioning. While we should be cautious about reading too much into one impulse, the speed and scale of this movement suggest that expectations may have shifted in anticipation of broader market changes. Those monitoring volatility should keep range parameters handy. A price above 0.6030 could redefine upside risk and pressure those relying on old resistance levels. Conversely, if the NZD can’t maintain a level above 0.5970 for a couple of sessions, focus will shift back down toward the 0.5920 area. In conclusion, treat the 0.6030 level as more than just a number; it represents a critical behavioral area that will reveal which side of the market is more confident. Until then, tools like implied volatility measures may suggest a sense of hesitancy rather than certainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Pound Sterling (GBP) has hit its highest level in over three years, now trading at 1.3565. This rise follows encouraging data on economic activity, inflation, and PMI services. The strength of the GBP is partly due to this positive economic news, showing solid growth. It also comes from reduced uncertainty around a US-UK trade deal and less cautious statements from the Bank of England.

Weaker USD Trend

A weaker USD has also played a role in boosting the GBP. Analysts predict that the next resistance levels for the GBP will be at 1.3660 and 1.3750, while support is found at 1.3450 and 1.3330. What we’re seeing is a currency rising due to more than just positive feelings. The current rally in Sterling, now at 1.3565, follows a series of better-than-expected economic reports—showing activity levels, inflation trends that suggest strong consumer demand, and solid performance in the services sector. Together, these indicators show that the UK economy is resilient, which may support the GBP in the near to medium term. With signs of ongoing recovery, market expectations for soft monetary policy are decreasing. The recent tone from Bailey, while not overly aggressive, is seen by the market as a sign that the Bank of England is unlikely to lower interest rates soon. This shift has boosted confidence in GBP-denominated assets and the currency itself. Another factor is the generally weaker dollar. As Treasury yields decrease and US economic data appears mixed, demand for the dollar has dropped, allowing Sterling to rise with less resistance. Now that levels of 1.3660 and 1.3750 are visible, traders should pay attention. As these levels draw closer, profit-taking is likely to increase, while support remains at 1.3450 and 1.3330 where demand could stabilise any pullbacks. Traders will need to be more precise in their entries around these zones.

Positioning and Risk

Current positioning is slightly long, which means that any unexpected negative data or renewed calls from Powell for higher rates could test these limits. Weekly surprises from CPI reports or hawkish Fed Minutes might create opportunities that traders shouldn’t overlook. With decreased volatility in G10 FX, any breakout movements could happen suddenly rather than gradually. In this environment, using layered entries is more effective than committing all at once. Flexibility is crucial, especially with moves driven not only by domestic data but also by changing global rate expectations. Communication from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will also be important. Even if nothing new is stated, the way it’s communicated matters. Traders should listen for mentions of wage growth or service inflation, as both factors are persistent and influence the Bank’s decisions. In short, as levels like 1.3750 come into play and the fundamentals only partially support the uptrend, a balanced approach is wise. Buying too aggressively risks chasing a move that’s already advanced. Waiting too long could mean missing opportunities near support. The pressure is building. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US Dollar saw a small increase after Trump’s threats of new tariffs but fell again as markets adjusted. The DXY index dropped to 98.03, showing ongoing weakness in the currency. Trump’s proposal includes a 50% tax on goods from the EU and a 25% tax on iPhones made outside America. These tariffs are set to start by July 9 and could impact smartphone makers like Samsung. The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs raises concerns about US economic policy and fiscal health.

Market Uncertainty and Trends

It’s unclear whether the new tariffs will add to existing ones or replace them. The market is showing weakening momentum for the US Dollar, with the daily RSI dropping. Possible support levels are at 97.90 and 97.40, while resistance points are at 99.10 and 100.80. The US market is closed for Memorial Day, which affects trading activity. It’s important to remember that this information involves risks and does not offer buying or selling advice. Always do your own research before making financial choices, as all risks and costs lie with the individual. Although the US dollar briefly rose after Trump’s tariff announcements, this increase was short-lived. The dollar weakened again as the market moved past initial reactions. With the DXY index now at 98.03, there is a clear trend of reduced buying momentum, likely due to fading confidence and worries about fiscal stability. Trump’s threats—specifically the imposition of a 50% duty on EU goods and a 25% tax on foreign iPhones—are fueling doubts about future trade policies. If these tariffs are enforced by July 9, major electronics manufacturers could feel the impact. While these statements may appeal to domestic manufacturing interests, the effects are already noticeable, as investors begin to price in concerns about stable trade governance.

Uncertainties in Tariff Implementation

Adding to the complexity is the ambiguity about how these tariffs will be applied—will they stack on top of existing tariffs or replace them? This uncertainty prevents any easy assumptions. We’re seeing the daily RSI decline, suggesting less energy behind recent moves. Current trends show diminishing interest in holding long positions. Key support levels are around 97.90 and again at 97.40, which we should watch carefully, especially if new data worsens market conditions. Resistance is further away at 99.10 and 100.80, which may attract selling pressure if prices temporarily rise. The US market’s closure for Memorial Day has reduced liquidity, meaning trading volumes are thinner and could amplify day-to-day volatility. While this doesn’t change the overall trend, it does mean that quick moves may not reflect the true market situation. Anyone with short-term positions or options based on USD performance should consider these factors in their daily strategies. With increasing political noise and unresolved trade and fiscal questions, recent market movements indicate a shift in sentiment. The ongoing decline suggests that this weakening trend could continue without a significant reason to reverse. We’re not making trading decisions solely based on news, but when the patterns and historical data align so clearly, we can’t overlook them. It’s vital to adjust expectations moving forward. There is a lack of clear information on the policy timeline, and short-term strategies may face challenges. Managing exposure becomes crucial, especially with tariff deadlines approaching and the market’s liquidity lower than usual. For now, the underlying factors indicate that the dollar’s weakness isn’t over yet. It’s essential to carefully assess risk versus reward. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now