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Trump says America holds serious talks with Iran’s new regime, warning energy strikes if negotiations fail

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US is in “serious discussions” with what he called a “new and more reasonable regime” in Iran. He said the talks aim to end US military operations in Iran, and that progress has been made, with an agreement still possible. Trump warned that if a deal is not reached soon, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened to commercial traffic, the US could launch large strikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure. He said the US could target electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and desalination plants.

Negotiations And Market Volatility

He also said these sites have so far been deliberately spared by US forces. In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was around 100.30 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. With a new round of US-Iran negotiations scheduled for next month, we are looking back at the sharp rhetoric from 2025 as a critical playbook. The market is now pricing in significant volatility, as the outcome could either send crude oil prices soaring or cause a rapid decline. This binary risk is creating distinct opportunities for derivative traders who are prepared for a sharp move. Traders anticipating an escalation or failed talks should consider buying near-term call options on Brent crude futures. Given that Brent crude has already risen 8% this month to $92 a barrel on renewed tensions, out-of-the-money calls offer a leveraged bet on a potential spike toward the $110-$120 range. We are already seeing call volume for May and June contracts up 25% week-over-week, indicating this view is gaining traction. Conversely, the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough makes holding downside protection essential. We recall that after a minor de-escalation in the Red Sea in early 2025, oil prices fell nearly 12% in two weeks. Purchasing put options on the United States Oil Fund (USO) can serve as an effective hedge against a similar price collapse if a deal is announced. The elevated uncertainty itself is a tradable event, which is reflected in the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) recently hitting a 14-month high of 48. This suggests that option premiums are expensive, but strategies like long strangles could prove profitable if oil makes a major price move in either direction. The current setup is about positioning for a large swing, not betting on a specific direction.

Strait Of Hormuz Supply Risk

We must remember the physical reality behind these financial instruments, with the Strait of Hormuz being the key chokepoint. Latest shipping data confirms that nearly 22 million barrels per day, representing 21% of global consumption, are still transiting the strait. Any direct threat to this passage would trigger a price reaction far more severe than what we saw in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 4:15 pm, by

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Bob Savage says the euro weakens near 1.15 as sentiment indices slip below 100, dollar stays high

The euro has been under pressure, with EUR/USD near 1.15. EU and euro area economic sentiment indices have moved further below the long-term average of 100. EU economic sentiment declined by 1.5 points to 96.7 in March. Euro area sentiment fell 1.6 points to 96.6. The euro has been heavily sold due to stagflation and energy concerns. Rebalancing flows into the euro may be cautious because macro headwinds persist and price expectations are rising. Monthly smoothed flows since the end of February show INR and EUR as the most-sold currencies. The sell-off is linked to balance of payments worries and stagflation fears. Normal rebalancing would mean adding to INR and EUR and reducing exposure to CNY and BRL. The drivers behind recent positioning have not eased and may strengthen. Overall uncertainty increased across sectors. Price expectations rose, indicating weaker growth momentum. We are seeing the Euro continue to face significant pressure, with EUR/USD struggling to hold the 1.1500 level and recently touching a low of 1.1485. The latest flash estimate for April’s Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index dipped further to -18.5, confirming the poor economic sentiment. These figures underscore the market’s deep-seated stagflation and energy supply concerns. The usual month-end rebalancing flows that might normally support the Euro appear hesitant. With last week’s flash Eurozone HICP inflation data coming in hotter than expected at 4.8%, the European Central Bank remains in a difficult position. This fundamental headwind suggests that fading any short-term Euro strength is the prevailing strategy for now. For derivative traders, this environment points towards buying downside protection on the Euro. Implied volatility on one-month EUR/USD options has climbed to 9.5%, up from an average of 7.2% in the previous quarter, signaling that the market is bracing for larger price swings. We believe strategies like buying put options or establishing bear put spreads on EUR/USD could be effective in the coming weeks. We are seeing a very different market than we did in the third quarter of 2025 when a temporary easing of energy prices sparked a brief Euro rally. That optimism has completely vanished, and the persistent macro headwinds are now more entrenched. This history makes us skeptical of any potential recovery for the currency in the near term.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 4:15 pm, by

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Analysts expect XAU/USD’s rebound to continue, potentially reaching around $5,000, supporting bullish gold outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,532 after rebounding from last week’s $4,100 support, following an early March peak at $5,420. Prices have moved higher beyond $4,500, with indicators recovering from oversold readings. The US Dollar Index has stayed firm, supported by higher US Treasury yields and expectations of at least one US Federal Reserve rate rise this year. The DXY is nearing resistance at 100.50. On the 4-hour chart, the near-term bias is mildly bullish, with a higher low suggesting reduced downward pressure. The RSI is at 53.58, above 50, while MACD remains above the Signal line in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram. Resistance is near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at about $4,610. A move above that level would open $4,735 and then $5,040, with $5,000 also noted as a key area. Support levels include $4,355, the March 26 low, followed by $4,100, the March 23 low. The story was corrected on March 30 at 11:40 GMT to confirm $4,735 as the March 20 high and $4,355 as the March 26 low. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase on record. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and risk assets, and can react to interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical stress. Looking back at the analysis from March 2025, we can see the bullish turn played out, with Gold now hovering just below the old $4,735 resistance area. This price action is encouraging, but options traders should be cautious as the US Dollar Index remains elevated. The DXY is currently trading around 104.20, well above the 100.50 resistance level we watched last year. The environment has shifted significantly since the rate hike fears of 2025. We now see the futures market pricing in a 70% chance of at least one Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of this year, a tailwind for non-yielding gold. This view is complicated by the February 2026 CPI data, which came in hotter than expected at 3.4%, reinforcing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Given the conflicting signals between Fed cut expectations and a strong dollar, we expect implied volatility to remain elevated in the coming weeks. Traders might consider buying call options with a strike price above $4,750 to play a potential breakout. However, given the dollar risk, purchasing put options with a strike near $4,600 could serve as a valuable hedge against a sharp rejection at resistance. Underpinning the long-term bullish case is the continued, aggressive buying from central banks. Following the record purchases we saw in the early 2020s, official sector buying remained robust through 2025, with the World Gold Council reporting net purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes for the second consecutive year. This provides a strong fundamental floor, suggesting any significant dips might be viewed as buying opportunities by these large players.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 3:16 pm, by

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India’s cumulative industrial output rose to 4.1% in February, edging up from the prior 4% level

India’s cumulative industrial output rose to 4.1% in February, up from 4.0% previously. The increase was 0.1 percentage points compared with the earlier figure.

Industrial Output Signals Market Resilience

The slight uptick in cumulative industrial output to 4.1% for February signals continued economic resilience. This steady, albeit modest, growth should reinforce a cautiously bullish stance on Indian markets. For derivative traders, this suggests that selling out-of-the-money Nifty 50 put options for the April expiry remains a viable strategy to capitalize on market stability. This positive industrial data is further supported by the recent March manufacturing PMI figure, which came in strong at 58.5, indicating robust expansion in the sector. This suggests the momentum from February is carrying over, making long positions on industrial sector futures or call options on major capital goods companies attractive. We believe this trend validates holding onto bullish positions initiated earlier in the quarter. However, we must consider that February’s consumer price inflation was a bit sticky at 5.2%, which is above the Reserve Bank of India’s target. This makes an interest rate cut in the near future unlikely, potentially capping any explosive upside in the market. Therefore, using defined-risk strategies like bull call spreads on the Nifty 50 could be more prudent than buying naked calls. Looking back, this steady industrial performance is a welcome development after we witnessed some moderation in output during the second half of 2025. The current strength appears broad-based, which encourages us to look beyond just the index. We are looking at specific opportunities in auto and manufacturing stocks that are showing high relative strength.

Positioning For Moderate Volatility

Given the mixed signals of solid growth and persistent inflation, we expect implied volatility to remain in a moderate range rather than collapsing. This environment is favorable for strategies that benefit from both a positive direction and time decay. We will continue to monitor high-frequency data for any signs of either accelerating growth or a surprising drop in inflation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 3:16 pm, by

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Categories: Live Updates

India’s industrial output rose 5.2%, surpassing the forecast 4.7%, according to February manufacturing data releases

India’s industrial output rose by 5.2% in February. Forecasts had pointed to 4.7%. The data shows industrial activity grew faster than expected during the month. The report compares the 5.2% result with the 4.7% estimate.

Industrial Output Surprise Signals Stronger Momentum

The industrial output number for February, coming in at 5.2%, is a clear signal that economic momentum is stronger than we previously priced in. This positive surprise suggests robust corporate earnings and healthy demand are continuing into this quarter. We should interpret this as a fundamentally bullish sign for the Indian market. For equity derivatives, this data supports a long position on the broader market indices. We can look to buy Nifty and Bank Nifty futures for the April expiry, anticipating follow-through buying. Alternatively, purchasing call options on cyclical stocks in the manufacturing and capital goods sectors could offer a more targeted way to play this strength. However, this strong growth will likely keep the Reserve Bank of India on alert regarding inflation, which has been hovering just over 5%. This fresh data makes a surprise interest rate cut at the upcoming April policy meeting highly improbable. The central bank is now more likely to maintain its hawkish “withdrawal of accommodation” stance. This outlook for interest rates suggests we should be cautious on duration-sensitive assets. Traders can position for this by selling interest rate futures or buying put options on government bond ETFs. Any hint of rising inflation in the next data release could accelerate this move.

Rates And Currency Implications For Positioning

A strengthening economy also tends to boost the national currency. We anticipate this will lend support to the Indian Rupee (INR). Establishing short positions in USD/INR futures contracts could be a profitable strategy over the coming weeks. This pattern is consistent with other recent high-frequency data, such as the manufacturing PMI which hit a five-month high of 56.9 in February. Looking back to a similar period of strong industrial performance in mid-2025, we saw that it preceded a multi-month rally in equities. This historical context reinforces our view that the current market has room to move higher. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 3:15 pm, by

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OCBC strategists view gold’s rebound as technical, following 20% losses since the Iran conflict began

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong say gold’s latest rebound was mainly technical after prices fell by nearly 20% at one point since the Iran conflict began. They note there may be room for a short-term rebound, but it is unclear if it can last. They identify resistance at 4,624 (100DMA), 4,670 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), and 4,850 (50% Fibonacci). They say a longer-lasting recovery would likely need gold to move above these levels and hold there.

Technical Rebound With Limited Follow Through

They also state that higher real yields and fewer expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts are making conditions harder for gold. The article says it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and edited by an editor. Gold’s recent bounce looks mostly technical, especially after the steep near-20% drop we saw last year following the Iran conflict. While this suggests some room for a short-term rebound, we question if the move has enough fundamental strength to last. The challenging macro environment that weighed on prices in late 2025 has not significantly changed. The biggest headwind remains high real yields, with recent data showing the 10-year TIPS yield holding firm above 2.3% last week, making non-yielding assets less attractive. Furthermore, the latest U.S. CPI print came in slightly hotter than expected at 2.9%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s message that rate cuts are not imminent. This reduces a key potential catalyst for a stronger gold rally. For derivative traders, this suggests that selling call options or establishing bear call spreads could be a prudent strategy for the coming weeks. We see the key resistance levels around 4,624 and 4,670 as a solid ceiling for the current rally. Selling calls with strike prices at or just above these levels allows us to collect premium on the view that this rebound will likely fade.

Options Positioning Around Key Resistance

This setup is reminiscent of the market we saw in 2023, when the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle consistently capped gold’s upside despite geopolitical tensions. Even when gold tried to rally then, the high opportunity cost of holding it prevented any sustainable breakout. We believe a similar pressure is building now, limiting how high this technical bounce can go. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 2:17 pm, by

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According to data, silver traded at $70.92 per ounce, gaining 1.46% from Friday’s $69.90

Silver rose on Monday, with XAG/USD at $70.92 per troy ounce. This was up 1.46% from $69.90 on Friday. Since the start of the year, silver has fallen by 0.23%. The price was $2.28 per gram.

Silver Market Update

The Gold/Silver ratio was 63.97 on Monday, compared with 64.29 on Friday. The ratio measures how many ounces of silver equal the value of one ounce of gold. Silver is traded as a precious metal and is often used for diversification and as a store of value. It can be bought as physical coins or bars, or via products such as exchange-traded funds that track its market price. Prices can be affected by geopolitical risk, recession concerns, interest rates, and moves in the US Dollar. Supply from mining, demand for trading products, and recycling rates can also influence prices. Industrial use in electronics and solar energy can affect demand and pricing. Changes in economic activity in the US, China, and India, as well as jewellery demand in India, can also move prices.

Trading Outlook

Silver often tracks gold’s price movements, and the Gold/Silver ratio is used to compare valuations. The post was created with an automation tool. We are seeing silver show renewed strength at $70.92 an ounce, marking a notable single-day gain. This is particularly interesting because prices have been mostly flat for the first quarter of 2026. The falling Gold/Silver ratio, now at 63.97, suggests silver is gaining momentum against gold, a pattern we haven’t seen sustained since mid-2025. This price action is supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, with the DXY index falling below 101 for the first time this year. This decline follows recent Federal Reserve commentary hinting that the cycle of rate hikes, which defined the economic landscape of 2024 and 2025, may be over. Markets are now pricing in a greater than 60% chance of a rate cut before the end of the year, which typically boosts non-yielding assets like silver. Industrial demand also provides a strong fundamental reason for bullishness. Recent manufacturing PMI data out of China surprised to the upside, showing continued expansion in a sector that is a major consumer of silver. The global push for green energy, which led to record solar panel installations throughout 2025, continues to absorb significant silver supply, a trend we expect to accelerate through 2026. For derivative traders, this confluence of factors suggests bullish strategies may be warranted in the coming weeks. Buying call options could offer a way to capitalize on potential upside movement while limiting risk. The break from its tight trading range could also signal an opportunity for traders to initiate long futures positions, using the recent support level near $69.00 as a point for placing stop-loss orders. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 2:16 pm, by

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Categories: Live Updates

Belgium’s monthly CPI eased, dropping from 0.54% previously to 0.12% during March

Belgium’s consumer price index (month-on-month) fell to 0.12% in March. It was 0.54% in the previous month. The latest figure shows a slower pace of monthly price growth. The data compares March with February.

Belgium Inflation Signals Eurozone Shift

The sharp drop in Belgian inflation to 0.12% is a significant signal for the broader Eurozone economy. We see this as a leading indicator that the upcoming Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the entire bloc could also undershoot expectations. This fundamentally alters the outlook on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy for the coming months. This data should prompt us to consider positions that benefit from falling interest rate expectations. Money markets have already reacted, with pricing for a potential ECB rate hike later this year dropping from over a 50% probability to now below 25% in the overnight index swap market. We can use interest rate futures to position for a more dovish ECB policy path than is currently priced in. Lower rate expectations will likely boost the price of European government bonds. We should look at buying call options on German Bund futures, as they are a key benchmark for the region’s debt. Looking back at 2025, we recall how sensitive bond markets were to inflation surprises, suggesting a swift upward price movement is possible if the wider Eurozone data confirms this trend. The potential for a less aggressive ECB could weaken the Euro, particularly against currencies whose central banks remain hawkish. We can explore buying put options on the EUR/USD currency pair, anticipating a move lower. Recent data from the U.S. shows their inflation remains more stubborn, creating a policy divergence that would pressure the Euro.

Equities May Benefit From Lower Rate Expectations

This environment is generally positive for equities, as the prospect of lower borrowing costs supports corporate valuations. We see an opportunity in buying call options on broad European stock indices like the EURO STOXX 50. This is a direct way to gain exposure to a potential market rally driven by a shift in monetary policy expectations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 2:16 pm, by

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Belgium’s annual consumer inflation rose from 1.45% to 1.65% during March, data showed

Belgium’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.65% year on year in March. This was up from 1.45% in the previous period. The change shows inflation was higher in March than before. The increase was 0.20 percentage points.

Belgian Inflation Signals Eurozone Risk

We see this uptick in Belgian inflation as a potential early warning for the wider Eurozone. While the 1.65% figure is not yet at the European Central Bank’s 2% target, the direction of travel is what matters most. It challenges the market’s dovish assumptions that dominated the end of 2025. This data point, following recent German manufacturing PMI figures that unexpectedly crossed into expansion territory at 50.8, suggests underlying economic strength. We are therefore adjusting our positions in interest rate swaps to profit from a potential rise in future rates. This is a significant shift, as rate cut probabilities for the second half of 2026 had been priced as high as 75% just last month. The uncertainty will likely lead to higher volatility in the bond market. We are considering buying options on German Bund futures, specifically straddles, to capitalize on a large price swing as the market digests this new information. We remember how quickly inflation expectations shifted back in 2022, and we want to be positioned for a similar rapid repricing. For currency traders, a more hawkish ECB could provide a tailwind for the Euro. Given the EUR/USD has been stuck in a tight range around 1.085 for weeks, we are looking at buying short-term call options to bet on a breakout to the upside. The Eurozone’s slightly improving inflation and growth picture now contrasts with recent US data showing personal spending cooled to a 0.2% increase last month.

Equity Hedging For A Less Dovish ECB

This renewed inflation concern could be a negative for European equities, which have enjoyed a strong start to the year. We are looking to buy protective put options on the EURO STOXX 50 index. This serves as an inexpensive hedge in case the market starts to fear that the ECB may have to abandon its accommodative stance sooner than expected. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 2:15 pm, by

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March saw Eurozone consumer confidence match expectations, registering -16.3, indicating steady sentiment levels across the bloc

Eurozone consumer confidence was -16.3 in March. The result matched forecasts. The reading shows household sentiment remained weak. It provides a monthly snapshot of how consumers view the economic outlook.

Market Reaction And Sentiment Trend

The March consumer confidence figure of -16.3 offers no surprises, as it landed exactly where the market expected it to be. Because this news was already priced in, we shouldn’t expect significant immediate volatility in broad equity indices. The focus now shifts from the headline number to the underlying trend of persistent consumer pessimism. This deeply negative reading reinforces the view that consumer spending will remain weak heading into the second quarter. This aligns with recent data showing Eurozone retail sales fell by 1.1% year-over-year, suggesting households are holding back on purchases. This sustained weakness will likely increase pressure on the European Central Bank to consider a more accommodative stance in its upcoming meetings. For options traders, the lack of a market shock may cause implied volatility on indices like the Euro Stoxx 50 to drift lower. With the VSTOXX volatility index currently hovering around a relatively calm 15, this could present opportunities to purchase protective puts at a cheaper price. These positions would hedge against the risk that the weak consumer sentiment finally translates into lower corporate earnings. We should specifically watch for weakness in consumer discretionary sectors. Companies in luxury goods, automotive, and hospitality are particularly exposed to cautious household spending. Derivative strategies could involve buying puts on relevant sector ETFs or on individual stocks that derive a large portion of their revenue from European consumers. When we look back at 2025, we saw a similar pattern where confidence struggled to break out of its pessimistic range despite falling inflation. The fact that we have not seen a meaningful recovery by this point in 2026 suggests this economic sluggishness is becoming entrenched. This historical context validates a cautious or bearish outlook on consumer-facing assets in the weeks ahead.

Historical Parallels And Positioning

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Written on March 30, 2026 at 1:17 pm, by

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Categories: Live Updates

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