NU Holdings Ltd. operates a digital banking platform across several countries, offering various spending solutions, including cards and mobile payment options. The company is based in Brazil and trades on the NYSE under the ticker “NU”.

Recent analysis indicates that NU may decline further after reaching a high of $14.08, with the potential for a drop below $10.18 to extend towards $8.10. This follows an impulse sequence that completed at a high of $16.15 after an upward trend beginning in June 2022.

Nu Holdings Price Movements

NU’s waves have experienced fluctuations, including a low of $10.18, a high of $14.08, and currently, it is expected to face a decline before a potential bounce. A break below $10.18 would reinforce this expectation, whereas maintaining above may indicate an alternate wave structure.

A buying opportunity is noted, should prices pull back between $8.10 and $4.40, aiming for future upward movement. Caution regarding trading in the Foreign Exchange market is advised; risks must be assessed relative to individual investment capabilities.

The pattern developing in NU Holdings Ltd. shares suggests traders should remain vigilant for further declines, particularly if the price breaks below $10.18. This threshold has previously held, but its failure would reinforce the likelihood of further downward movement. Current indicators show that the stock has already pulled back from its peak of $16.15, and if momentum continues, levels below $8.10 could come into play.

From our perspective, traders who focus on derivatives must manage risk carefully. If prices enter the anticipated range of $8.10 to $4.40, long positions could offer strong returns, given that historical movements suggest that such dips often precede rebounds. However, waiting for confirmation within these levels is key before taking a position.

Trading Strategy And Risk Management

A sustained move above $14.08 would suggest an alternative wave structure is forming, potentially invalidating a deeper pullback scenario. Therefore, those trading shorter timeframes should track whether price action holds within the expected decline—or whether a sudden surge challenges the outlined downtrend.

We recognise that speculative trades carry higher risks, particularly in stocks susceptible to large price swings. As such, capital management remains paramount, especially for individuals leveraging options or futures. Setting stop-loss levels aligned with personal risk tolerance will be necessary over the coming weeks.

While the stock has displayed long-term growth potential, short-term developments must be handled with discipline. Movements below key levels may set up opportunities, but traders should assess whether broader market trends and external influences align with their strategies before taking action.

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US two-year yields have decreased by 10 basis points to 3.87% as market participants seek safer investment options.

The S&P 500 has fallen below its January low, erasing all gains made since the election.

Currently, the S&P 500 is down 1.4%, the Nasdaq has declined by 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 has decreased by 1.6%.

Market Confidence Weakens

This movement in short-term Treasury yields highlights a growing preference for reduced risk. When investors shift their capital into government bonds, it often reflects uncertainty or a reassessment of expected returns elsewhere. The 10 basis point drop in two-year yields signals an increased demand for safe assets, suggesting that market confidence has weakened.

Equities continue to face downward pressure. The S&P 500’s decline below its January low indicates that prior optimism has been erased. It is not just a single index under strain—broad-based selling is present, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also experiencing losses. The fact that the S&P 500 has given up all post-election gains adds to the argument that sentiment has turned more defensive.

In periods like this, price action becomes a key indicator. A 1.4% drop in the S&P 500, alongside a 1.3% dip in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, suggests that losses are not confined to one particular sector. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000’s 1.6% decline implies small-cap stocks are struggling even more. This points to a general aversion to riskier assets rather than a rotation within equities.

Potential Market Openings

Short-term swings could create openings, but momentum needs to stabilise before conviction returns. If safe-haven flows persist, further downside across equities may not be out of the question. Yield-sensitive assets will likely respond rapidly, especially if treasuries continue to attract demand.

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Gold’s price reached approximately $2,915 on Tuesday, following a more than 1% increase on the previous day. The rise is linked to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $30 billion of US imports, starting Tuesday. China plans to impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on key US agricultural products, effective March 10.

Us Treasury Yields Decline

US 10-year benchmark yields fell to 4.11% in early trading, marking a low not seen since mid-October. The market’s expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut by June stands at 85.6%, driven by concerns over inflation and economic activity.

Technical analysis indicates tight trading ranges for gold, with daily Pivot Point support at $2,879. Resistance is noted at $2,903 and further at $2,917, while support at $2,866 could be vital to prevent further declines.

Gold’s surge past $2,915 has come on the back of tariff announcements from Washington, leading to retaliatory measures from Ottawa and Beijing. The confirmation of duties on goods from North America and China creates direct consequences for trade costs and profit margins, making commodities such as gold more appealing as investments shift towards safer assets.

These retaliatory moves will not just impact goods directly subjected to tariffs; they could also influence broader supply chains, pricing pressure, and corporate earnings. By introducing a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of American imports, Canadian policymakers signal a hard stance. At the same time, Beijing’s decision to target major US agricultural exports with a 15% levy is set to create additional uncertainty, especially for sectors reliant on sustained trade stability.

Gold Price Support And Resistance Levels

The effect on US Treasury yields has been immediate—early trading saw 10-year benchmark yields drop to 4.11%, a level that hasn’t been recorded since mid-October. Lower yields make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive, adding to demand. Meanwhile, bond markets appear to be locking in expectations for monetary policy adjustments, with rate cut probabilities exceeding 85% by June. That shift is largely due to concerns over economic activity and persistent inflation worries, which policymakers will have to address sooner rather than later.

Examining recent price action, technical indicators suggest that price movements remain confined within narrow bands. Current trading patterns show support forming around $2,879, with buyers stepping in at this level. Immediate resistance sits at $2,903, while a push beyond $2,917 could signal further upward momentum. Conversely, if prices fall below $2,866, we may see an extended retreat, forcing traders to reconsider their positioning.

For those navigating this situation, it is becoming clearer that external macroeconomic developments continue to play a decisive role. With trade measures escalating and monetary policy shifts growing more likely, markets could remain volatile in the coming weeks.

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Sheinbaum’s Strategy And Market Reactions

For traders, this is an essential development. The timing of the discussion—preceding the introduction of tariffs—means that any agreements, concessions, or shifts in policy could come swiftly. That, in turn, could affect market pricing notably. For those involved in derivatives, particularly with exposure to trade-sensitive sectors, this period requires close scrutiny. Reactions from businesses, policymakers, and markets will provide key signals, especially if signs emerge that tariffs may not proceed as planned.

If tariffs are implemented as scheduled, market responses will likely be triggered at the start of the week. But if talks lead to some form of delay or modification, price movements could begin even sooner. Markets tend to respond to expectations rather than just actions, meaning even an indication of flexibility in policy may shift investor positioning. Watching for leaks, early statements, or shifts in rhetoric could offer those trading derivatives an advantage in anticipating price fluctuations.

Trade Policy Volatility And Investor Strategy

Given the short time frame before tariffs take effect, decisions made now could affect pricing for the next several weeks. If there are sharp movements in expectations around trade policies, volatility could increase. That presents both risks and opportunities, depending on positioning. Clarity should emerge soon, but in the meantime, maintaining flexibility in strategy and monitoring developments carefully will be necessary.

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The Elliott Wave analysis of the Eurostoxx (SX5E) index indicates a bullish trend following a low on 19 November 2024. The index is currently unfolding as an impulse structure, with recommendations to buy on dips in defined price ranges.

Recent updates show that following corrections, a new high was achieved above 5544.12, suggesting further upward momentum. This trend aligns with earlier projections for a bounce after reaching the designated blue box area.

Currency Market Influences

Meanwhile, trading dynamics for currency pairs have been influenced by geopolitical tensions and tariff announcements. Notably, the AUD/USD remained choppy while EUR/USD climbed to new yearly highs amid a declining US Dollar.

The structural development in the Eurostoxx index suggests the ongoing bullish phase should persist as long as corrective declines hold within the projected retracement zones. The fact that it recently moved beyond 5544.12 confirms that the broader trajectory remains intact. Buying opportunities continue to exist when price retraces within identified support areas, as this pattern maintains its impulsive characteristics.

Attention must be placed on how each retracement unfolds. A sharp drop outside the expected levels would indicate a shift in structure, demanding a reassessment of potential targets. On the other hand, controlled pullbacks that respect Fibonacci retracement thresholds support the notion of a continuing rally. We have observed that previous corrections have been met with renewed buying pressure, strengthening confidence in the larger upward trend.

In the currency realm, recent conditions show that geopolitical factors remain key drivers of volatility. With the Australian Dollar experiencing erratic behaviour, it has provided little clarity for sustained positioning. Meanwhile, the Euro has displayed remarkable strength, benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar. The latest push to yearly highs underlines the advantage held by the Euro as long as the Dollar remains under pressure.

Risk Management Considerations

For traders navigating these movements, managing risk appropriately is paramount. While the current directional signals appear clear, external events, particularly those tied to tariffs and broader financial policies, have the potential to disrupt established patterns. Evaluating pullbacks carefully will be necessary, as they often present further opportunities when aligned with structural expectations.

The confluence of technical projections with fundamental influences suggests the present outlook remains constructive as long as the outlined conditions hold. That said, remaining flexible in response to new inputs will allow for adjustments if emerging price action deviates from anticipated scenarios.

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Three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated this year. Although indications of a more accommodating Fed have been limited, St. Louis Fed President Musalem mentioned potential economic risks.

The Federal Reserve has maintained a ‘wait and see’ approach, emphasising the need for 2% inflation prior to any cuts. Meanwhile, the market has adjusted its expectations, pricing in 80 basis points of easing, a rise from 40 basis points previously.

Low Chances For March Cut

The chances of a rate cut in the upcoming March meeting remain low, while the May 7 meeting now has over a 50% likelihood. Additionally, a 50 basis points decline is projected for the terminal rate.

This suggests that while monetary easing is expected, there remains a gap between the central bank’s stance and market forecasts. Investors have grown more confident in lower rates arriving sooner, even though policymakers have not explicitly signalled the same level of urgency. Musalem’s mention of economic risks hints at growing concerns within the institution, but without definitive commitments, traders must closely monitor further statements.

Recent pricing shows a notable uptick in expectations, with projected cuts now doubling compared to previous estimates. This shift reflects a broader sentiment that the central bank will be pushed towards action, even as officials remain outwardly cautious. Inflation remains the primary hurdle, with authorities repeatedly stating that easing will only be considered if price stability is assured. Despite this, the likelihood of monetary policy adjustments later in the year has strengthened.

Market Expectations And Policy Shifts

With the upcoming March meeting, markets appear sceptical of any immediate change. However, by May, probability models suggest that more than half of market participants anticipate the first reduction. This adjustment aligns with growing views that policymakers will eventually move in response to slowing economic momentum or external pressures. Additionally, the expected decline in the terminal rate by 50 basis points further reinforces the belief that tightening measures will be reversed at a faster pace than initially forecasted.

Participants should monitor official commentary for any hints of a shift in stance. Inflation data releases and employment figures will be key in shaping upcoming adjustments. If economic conditions warrant it, policymakers may reconsider their cautious approach, accelerating the anticipated easing cycle. These developments will have direct implications for pricing, volatility, and positioning in the near term.

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On the daily timeframe, Chevron appears to have finished a corrective pattern, suggesting a bullish breakout is imminent.

Wave V Structure

The invalidation level is $51.48; maintaining above this level indicates further potential upside in the months ahead.

The analysis here highlights a strong upward move in progress, backed by historical patterns and ongoing price action. The corrective move prior to the current rise indicates that the stock has reset its positioning, allowing for a fresh bullish cycle to unfold.

With price staying firmly above the invalidation point, the structure remains intact. We’ve seen before how markets tend to respect these levels, meaning traders awaiting confirmation should watch for momentary retracements rather than assuming a trend shift.

This particular setup shows price developing through an impulsive structure, consistent with prior movements in the stock. Historically, when Wave (V) completes, markets cool off, but in the meantime, expectations lean towards further strengthening. Pullbacks may appear in the short run, particularly as smaller-degree waves complete, yet these should be viewed in relation to the broader structure.

Technical Outlook

For those monitoring short-term retracements, Wave ((4)) could bring some temporary slowing within the uptrend. However, if history is a guide, such moves have often provided renewed buying opportunities rather than full reversals. These shifts in momentum frequently allow positioning adjustments, particularly in leveraged markets.

Our view aligns with the idea that strength remains, provided price does not slip below the key structural level. Past instances of similar behaviour suggest the current motion is still developing rather than nearing the end. The presence of an impulsive sequence further reinforces this perspective, as it typically signals continuation rather than exhaustion until a full cycle resolves.

Traders relying on derivatives should be assessing risk in line with where price sits within the wave count. If Wave ((4)) develops as expected, entries may be more favourable during dips rather than chasing after extended upward sequences. Care should be taken around potential pullbacks, given their tendency to form quickly within ongoing trends.

Momentum indicators can offer further confirmation. If Wave ((3)) continues extending, waiting for early signs of exhaustion before entering fresh positions may be prudent. Conversely, if strength remains, upside may continue surpassing intermediate resistance levels before any notable retracement occurs.

Looking ahead, there is evident room for price discovery at higher levels. The structure remains constructive, leading to expectations of follow-through action, particularly if market conditions align with historical trend behaviour. With control still resting on the bullish side, retracements should be assessed not as standalone events but as components within a broader pattern.

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The US Federal Register has announced that it will publish information on the implementation of tariffs on Canada on Thursday. Currently, there is a lack of clarity regarding how these tariffs will be enforced at the northern border.

Traders are sharing a page from the US Federal Register that fails to detail the procedures for collecting and paying duties. This uncertainty creates confusion for those affected by the tariffs, especially with the upcoming publication possibly indicating changes or exceptions.

Bureaucratic Uncertainty

The availability of the unpublished document may appear to be bureaucratic in nature, but it contributes to the overall confusion surrounding the situation.

We now find ourselves in a position where information remains incomplete, yet market participants must prepare for possible shifts in expectations. With the US Federal Register set to publish tariff details on Thursday, the uncertainty surrounding enforcement mechanisms at the northern border leaves room for speculation. The lack of procedural clarity in the shared document suggests that those directly impacted still do not have a defined framework to rely upon. That, in turn, raises questions about how these duties will be applied in practice.

For those analysing potential outcomes, the immediate concern is how this uncertainty will translate into market movements. If the final version of the implementation details introduces unexpected restrictions or exemptions, there will inevitably be a recalibration in expectations. This could lead to price fluctuations as traders price in new information. Mason noted earlier this week that any deviation from the anticipated structure could create opportunities or risks, depending on positioning. Given that reasoning, a close watch on Thursday’s release is essential.

Compounding the matter is the fact that unofficial versions of the document are circulating without a clear enforcement mechanism. Without a confirmed structure for collection and payment, uncertainty will persist until the official publication. This gap between available information and confirmed policy invites speculation, which can be reflected in short-term volatility.

Retrospective Concerns

Moreover, questions remain regarding retrospective application. If any of the measures are backdated, adjustments will need to be made quickly, potentially disrupting ongoing arrangements. Robinson pointed out last month that if previous decisions continue to affect current strategy, then any policy shift could cause ripple effects, especially for those with exposure to cross-border agreements.

By Thursday, expectations will meet reality. The ambiguity surrounding these tariffs has already caused debate, and once the final regulatory language is made public, the market will react accordingly. Any exemptions or adjustments introduced in the published version may reward those who remained flexible while putting others at a disadvantage.

If collection mechanisms prove more complex than expected, administrative burdens may increase. Should procedures require additional compliance efforts, costs could rise for those needing to adjust workflows. This logistical component deserves just as much attention as the tariff rates themselves.

What remains clear is that a period of short-term uncertainty will continue until the final details are confirmed. With incomplete information in circulation, misinterpretation becomes a risk in itself. Those monitoring Thursday’s release must be prepared to act swiftly, depending on how enforcement is structured.

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GBP/USD rose around 1% on Monday, driven by the weakening of the US Dollar (USD). The currency pair trades above 1.2700, marking its highest point since mid-December.

Disappointing macroeconomic data and news of tariffs from US President Donald Trump dampened market sentiment towards the USD. The pair previously experienced daily losses at the end of last week, closing around 1.2600.

Usd Weakness Supports Sterling

The USD displayed strength during the latter half of last week, impacting GBP/USD negatively. Tariff confirmations and political tensions contributed to a cautious approach among market participants before the weekend.

Sterling began the week strongly, benefitting from a weaker greenback after data releases from the United States failed to meet expectations. As a result, GBP/USD climbed past 1.2700 for the first time in months, setting the stage for traders to assess whether this momentum has further to run.

Market sentiment shifted as concerns grew over economic conditions in the US. Fresh tariff announcements from the White House unsettled investors, adding to the pressure on the dollar. At the end of the previous week, traders had been more inclined towards the US currency, with GBP/USD slipping to around 1.2600. However, with weaker economic figures emerging, that pattern reversed at the start of the new trading week.

The latter half of last week had been marked by a more defensive approach among traders, as political developments and fresh trade policies encouraged a move towards stability. This generally favoured the dollar, but those gains proved short-lived once investors reassessed the broader economic picture.

Outlook For Gbp Usd

With GBP/USD now at levels not seen since December, the focus shifts to whether the British currency can sustain its recent advance or if the dollar might regain traction. Economic data releases will continue to shape expectations, especially as traders determine whether policy responses from central banks could alter momentum in the short term.

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Shares of Tesla reached $272 in pre-market trading, reverting to their previous position before the election. Sales in North America and Europe have declined, while expectations for strong sales in China seem unfounded.

According to the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla sales in China dropped to 30,688 in February, marking a 49% decrease from 63,238 in the same month last year. Additionally, sales in Australia fell dramatically by 71.9% in February, totalling only 1,592 units sold.

Tesla Faces Declining Demand

This data signals a downturn in demand, one that aligns with the broader slowdown observed across multiple regions. Tesla’s declines in North America and Europe are now reinforced by underperformance in China, a market where robust growth had been widely expected. The latest figures from the China Passenger Car Association point to a near-halving of sales compared to a year ago, an outcome that will weigh on overall revenue. A similar pattern has emerged in Australia, where deliveries have tumbled, reinforcing concerns that demand outside of Tesla’s core U.S. market is weakening.

With shares recovering to levels seen before the election, the market appears to have factored in these trends, at least for now. However, a key issue is whether expectations have sufficiently adjusted to reflect recent sales figures. If demand in China continues to disappoint following a period of aggressive price reductions, further downgrades to revenue forecasts may follow. Such developments would make any sustained recovery in share price more challenging.

Beyond immediate sales figures, attention must also be directed towards production and delivery numbers in the coming weeks. Factory output adjustments could reveal Tesla’s own expectations for demand going forward. If further production cuts become necessary, markets will have to re-evaluate growth expectations once again.

Economic Conditions And Market Sentiment

Another element influencing sentiment will be broader economic conditions. Consumer appetite for electric vehicles remains sensitive to interest rates and overall financial confidence. Any signs of slowing consumer credit growth or weaker economic activity could further weigh on projections. Recent sales figures already reinforce the idea that Tesla’s pricing power is under pressure, making any further deterioration in demand a potential trigger for additional adjustments from analysts.

Ultimately, it will be necessary to monitor whether China’s downturn represents a short-term fluctuation or a more drawn-out shift in buying patterns. If sales fail to stabilise in key international markets while competitors maintain or expand their foothold, the pressure on Tesla’s valuation may intensify.

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