China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs increased in February as activities resumed following the Lunar New Year holiday. The manufacturing PMI returned to growth, while the non-manufacturing PMI gained momentum.

Despite these expansions, underlying indices indicate a less optimistic outlook. The rebound in manufacturing was driven by large enterprises, whereas medium and small firms experienced sharper declines compared to January. The increase in non-manufacturing PMI stemmed mainly from a rise in construction, while the services index showed a slowdown.

Impact Of Trade Tensions

Concerns remain due to escalating trade tensions with the US, which may impact China’s export performance. Market participants are anticipating announcements from the upcoming annual ‘two sessions’ for potential stimulus measures to alleviate risks facing the Chinese economy.

China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showed improvement in February, but that’s only part of the story. The official figures suggest a rebound, yet the underlying details paint a more nuanced picture.

Factory activity picked up, but this was largely due to stronger momentum among bigger firms, leaving medium and small businesses in a tougher spot. The gap between company sizes hints at deeper imbalances, and that’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. Though the return to expansion is a positive signal, weaker performance among smaller manufacturers suggests demand may not be as strong as the headline numbers imply.

Outside manufacturing, growth was mostly driven by construction, but services didn’t follow suit. There was some growth, but at a slower rate than before. With domestic consumption playing a key role in China’s broader economic health, any sluggishness here could have knock-on effects. If service-related businesses don’t gain traction soon, this could temper overall confidence in the recovery.

On the external front, rising trade tensions with the US bring another layer of uncertainty. With tariffs still a point of contention and trade restrictions weighing on exports, there’s little relief coming from global demand. Businesses relying on overseas markets might face fresh headwinds, and that pressure won’t ease overnight.

Policy Expectations And Market Reactions

With the annual ‘two sessions’ approaching, attention now shifts to policymakers. Market expectations are building around possible stimulus efforts, with investors looking for clues on how Beijing plans to support growth. Any new measures will be closely analysed, especially for their impact on credit availability, infrastructure spending, and support for struggling industries. If policymakers hold off or underdeliver, sentiment could shift quickly.

For those trading derivatives, these shifts demand careful positioning over the next few weeks. Volatility may rise if policy signals deviate from expectations, and sector-specific impacts could open up trading opportunities—especially in industries exposed to construction, exports, or domestic demand. Monitoring statements from officials, particularly around liquidity measures and fiscal policy, will help anticipate market reactions. Understanding how this plays out relative to broader global trends is just as important, as the external environment remains unpredictable.

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The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating near a significant resistance level. Last week, the USD strengthened broadly due to risk-off flows and renewed concerns over tariffs, despite some disappointing US economic data.

The Japanese Yen maintained support amid risk-averse sentiment and declining Treasury yields. However, last Friday saw the Yen weaken as the Tokyo CPI did not meet expectations, reducing speculation for further rate hikes this year.

Technical Analysis On Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the USDJPY rebounded from 148.60, reaching 150.93 resistance, where sellers may emerge. Buyers are poised to push higher to extend the pullback trajectory.

In the 4-hour analysis, the pullback shows range-bound activity, with sellers focusing on a decline back to 148.60, while buyers target a rally past the resistance.

The 1-hour chart reveals a support zone at 150.18, which may attract buyers aiming for a break above resistance. Alternatively, sellers could push the price lower towards 148.60.

Upcoming economic data includes the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the deadline for Trump’s tariffs. Key reports like the US ADP and ISM Services PMI, along with Jobless Claims figures, will be released throughout the week, culminating with the US NFP report on Friday.

The price movement suggests a battle between buyers and sellers, with neither side gaining full control for now. While the broader trend favours further upside for the US dollar, short-term fluctuations could create opportunities in both directions.

Looking at last week’s developments, the dollar saw gains mainly due to a shift in sentiment. Traders moved away from riskier assets, seeking safety in the greenback, even as some economic figures out of the US came in weaker than expected. Tariff concerns only added to the demand. On the other hand, the yen held firm for most of the week as falling Treasury yields and overall risk aversion lent support. However, expectations shifted on Friday when inflation data from Tokyo suggested less pressure for the Bank of Japan to raise rates soon. That sent the yen lower.

Key Resistance And Support Levels

Technically, the resistance around 150.93 stands as a clear challenge for buyers. At that level, sellers have been stepping in to limit further gains. If they continue to defend this zone, attempts to push higher could struggle. Yet, if buyers manage to clear the hurdle, further gains may follow. Given the recent price action, some could be looking at 148.60 as an area where demand might increase again, keeping the range intact for now.

Looking at the shorter timeframes, the movements remain within a defined zone. On the 4-hour view, prices have been bouncing between key levels, suggesting no clear breakout just yet. A drop from resistance may pull the pair lower, but if buyers regain momentum, a renewed challenge to the highs could take place. On the 1-hour chart, buyers have shown interest around 150.18. Holding that level keeps the focus on resistance, but any downside break through it could expose lower targets.

This week is packed with data releases likely to bring volatility. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is up first, followed by Trump’s tariff deadline. Later in the week, ADP employment figures and the ISM Services PMI will provide more insight into economic conditions. Weekly jobless claims are also due, leading up to Friday’s highlight—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Each of these releases carries the potential to shift expectations, keeping market participants on high alert.

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European leaders have unified to support Ukraine, which has strengthened the Euro (EUR), recently positioned at 1.0416. An emergency summit discussed a potential €20 billion military package and increased defence spending, with broader discussions planned for Thursday.

In contrast, the announcement of tariffs by Trump, particularly a proposed 25% tariff on the EU, could negatively impact the EUR. Technical analysis indicates resistance at various levels, including 1.0420 and 1.0510, while support lies at 1.0360/90 and 1.0280.

European Support For Ukraine

A strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimate this week may assist the EUR’s recovery ahead of the ECB meeting, which has already factored in an 85 basis point cut this year. Any unexpected shifts in this regard could bolster the Euro’s position.

The unity among European leaders in backing Ukraine has provided a boost to the Euro, which has recently been trading around the 1.0416 level. During an emergency summit, discussions revolved around a €20 billion military support package, alongside plans to allocate more resources towards defence. A broader conversation is set to continue on Thursday, which could shape investor sentiment around the Euro in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly the 25% duty on European goods, present a direct downside risk. Trade restrictions of this scale would place additional pressure on the currency, potentially reversing recent gains. Investors should weigh the timing and potential countermeasures from European officials, especially if these tariffs begin to materialise into concrete policy.

From a technical perspective, there are several key points to watch. Resistance appears firm at levels such as 1.0420 and 1.0510, meaning upward movement may face challenges without a strong enough catalyst. Conversely, should the Euro decline, support around 1.0360 to 1.0390 will be the first test, with another layer down near 1.0280.

Impact Of Inflation Data

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading will be an important factor in short-term price movement. If inflation figures exceed expectations, this could reinforce confidence in the Euro’s strength leading up to the upcoming ECB meeting. Market pricing has already accounted for a total of 85 basis points in rate cuts this year. Any deviation from this expectation—either in tone or policy outlook—has the potential to drive the currency even higher, as traders reassess the central bank’s next move.

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Atsushi’s remarks come at a time when wage levels are under scrutiny, with the broader economy showing mixed signals. Real private consumption has yet to return to where it was before the pandemic, which affects overall demand. However, corporate investment remains healthy, and the continued rise in inbound tourism adds to spending activity. Both of these elements help counterbalance weaker consumption figures.

Spring Wage Negotiations

As the spring wage talks approach, expectations around income adjustments will influence decisions at the Bank of Japan. Policymakers are watching closely for any indications that rising salaries could sustain inflation beyond cost-push factors. Without steady wage increases, domestic demand may not strengthen enough to support higher prices in a lasting way. This is where small and medium-sized businesses become an essential part of the equation. Atsushi’s mention of their wage potential suggests interest in whether they will adjust pay in a way that supports overall inflation targets.

If businesses raise salaries more broadly, this could reinforce arguments for policy changes. The central bank has been monitoring whether inflation can hold without excessive monetary support. Atsushi’s acknowledgment of investment strength and tourism-driven spending shows that some economic foundations remain steady. These factors may encourage discussions on whether conditions will soon allow for an adjustment in interest rates.

Market Expectations

In the coming weeks, financial markets will be watching for clues from wage negotiations and broader consumer activity. Retail spending figures and corporate hiring trends may hold weight in shaping expectations. Any upward adjustment in pay settlements could serve as an early indication of potential policy shifts.

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Net lending to individuals in the United Kingdom for January was reported at £5.9 billion, exceeding the projected £4.7 billion. This figure indicates a positive trend in consumer borrowing.

In European markets, the EUR/USD pair rose toward 1.0450, spurred by a core inflation increase of 0.6% in February following a decline the previous month. Meanwhile, GBP/USD traded above 1.2600, benefiting from a weaker US Dollar and geopolitical developments.

Gold’s price remained stable amid anticipated tariffs and discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, while the Institute for Supply Management’s February Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a modest slowdown in the US sector.

Consumer Borrowing Trends

The higher-than-expected net lending figure suggests that consumer confidence remains strong, with individuals borrowing more than market estimates. This could indicate that households are willing to take on additional debt, possibly in response to favourable borrowing conditions or expectations of stable economic conditions. Traders should take note of this trend, as it could influence future monetary policy decisions. If borrowing continues to rise, policymakers might see a reason to adjust rates or introduce measures to manage credit expansion.

In foreign exchange markets, the movement of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.0450 followed a rebound in core inflation for February. A 0.6% increase after the previous month’s decline suggests that prices are once again firming. Inflation data often plays a key role in central bank decisions, so traders should remain attentive to further indicators from the Eurozone in the coming weeks. If inflation persists at higher levels, market expectations around policy adjustments could shift, adding volatility to currency pairs.

On the UK side, sterling retained strength above 1.2600, with a combination of external and internal factors supporting its position. The fading strength of the US Dollar contributed to this movement, as did geopolitical factors that influenced investor sentiment. If this trend continues, market participants should keep assessing how currency positioning reacts to macroeconomic developments.

Gold remained stable, suggesting that current global uncertainties and discussions around trade tariffs are keeping demand for safe-haven assets steady. With uncertainty still present, we should watch for any policy announcements or unforeseen geopolitical tensions that could drive demand higher or lower.

Upcoming Economic Reports

Finally, the upcoming Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report will be closely followed. A modest slowdown in activity has been anticipated, but if the data deviates, it could impact bond yields, equity markets, and currency trading. Keeping a close watch on these movements will be essential in gauging potential shifts in investor sentiment.

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During the European session, final Manufacturing PMIs will be released for several major economies, alongside preliminary data for Spain, Switzerland, and Italy. The Eurozone Flash CPI report is anticipated to be the key focus, while in the American session, attention will shift to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The Eurozone CPI is projected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 2.5%, with the Core CPI expected at 2.6%, decreasing from 2.7%. A softer CPI report may alleviate market concerns regarding inflation, influencing the ECB’s policy decisions.

Us Ism Manufacturing Pmi Forecast

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 50.8, slightly lower than the previous 50.9. Recent S&P Global PMIs indicated an uptick in manufacturing activity, suggesting a rise in production linked to anticipation of rising costs or supply issues due to tariffs.

Fed’s Musalem is scheduled to speak later in the day.

A series of key data releases will guide market movements in the sessions ahead. In Europe, final Manufacturing PMI readings will shed light on factory activity across the region. Meanwhile, traders will assess early estimates for Spain, Switzerland, and Italy, though focus will likely remain on inflation data from the Eurozone. Across the Atlantic, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will take precedence as markets gauge the strength of industrial output.

Eurozone inflation data carries weight, as expectations point to a slower annual increase of 2.3%, compared to the previous 2.5%. Core inflation, a metric that strips out volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to dip slightly to 2.6%. If the figures materialise as projected—or come in even lower—the European Central Bank may find reason to reconsider its stance on monetary policy. A weaker-than-expected reading would suggest diminishing price pressures, potentially reining in expectations for tighter financial conditions.

On the other hand, inflation holding firmer than expected could prompt a reassessment of where rates are headed. While the ECB has expressed caution in recent months, persistence in price growth would leave little room for swift policy shifts.

Market Expectations And Central Bank Policies

Over in the United States, attention will turn to manufacturing activity. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a reading of 50.8, a minor adjustment from the previous 50.9. A steady figure around this level indicates neither strong expansion nor contraction but does highlight resilience in the sector. Recent S&P Global data suggested manufacturing picked up, driven in part by firms ramping up production ahead of expected cost increases or potential supply constraints stemming from tariffs.

Later in the session, markets will hear from Alberto, whose remarks could offer insight into how policymakers view the current environment. Depending on his tone, traders might recalibrate their expectations regarding future rate decisions. Given the broader inflation concerns and shifting economic conditions, any hints on potential changes to the central bank’s approach will be parsed closely.

Market participants should remain mindful of how incoming data could alter the prevailing narrative. Inflation readings and manufacturing activity are both integral to shaping rate expectations, and any surprises in the numbers could prompt swift adjustments in positioning. The balance between monetary policy shifts and broader economic performance remains at the forefront, and with policymakers set to speak, their words may carry weight in the days ahead.

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Eurostoxx futures rose by 0.5% in early European trading, influenced by Wall Street’s gains at the end of Friday. German DAX futures advanced by 0.7%, and UK FTSE futures increased by 0.5%.

The late rally in US stocks on Friday remains unexplained, as other markets did not exhibit the same behaviour. This raises the possibility that the movement could be attributed to last-minute month-end rebalancing flows. Dip buyers may have protected tech shares, especially those in the Nasdaq, against a test of the 200-day moving average. S&P 500 futures also noted an increase of 0.2% as a new week and month commenced.

European Equities Gain Momentum

European equities followed the momentum from Wall Street, pushing higher in the early hours. Investors appear to be carrying forward the optimism from last week, though the reasoning behind Friday’s late surge remains open to interpretation.

If month-end rebalancing was indeed at play, then it would suggest that institutional adjustments, rather than a shift in sentiment, primarily fuelled the late recovery. That could mean any follow-through in the coming days will need an additional catalyst. The fact that US stock indices found support at key technical levels implies some traders saw value in stepping in before heavier losses took hold, especially in tech-heavy sectors.

Meanwhile, bond markets show little indication of stress. Yields on US Treasuries remain within recent ranges, reflecting stability in fixed-income positioning. Interest rate expectations have not materially shifted, and pricing in swaps markets continues to suggest that policymakers may not need to make immediate adjustments. Currency markets also remain largely steady, with the dollar holding its ground against major peers.

Market Drivers This Week

This week’s key question is whether Friday’s late rally was an isolated event or the beginning of a broader shift. If sentiment genuinely strengthens, then follow-through buying should emerge. If flows were merely mechanical, a lack of fresh catalysts could see indices struggle for direction.

Attention will be on upcoming economic data and central bank rhetoric to assess whether momentum can build. Without encroaching risks, market positioning may dictate near-term moves, particularly as investors assess their exposure for the new month. Contrarian moves could surface if any unexpected developments challenge the current calm, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

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AUD/JPY has fallen to nearly 93.00 during European hours on Monday as the Japanese Yen remains strong. This strength is supported by expectations of ongoing interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and a rise in Japan’s 10-year government bond yield to 1.4%.

Japan’s Vice Finance Minister indicated that both large and small companies expect strong wage increases, although real private consumption is still below pre-Covid levels. Meanwhile, corporate investment and inbound tourism are robust.

Chinese Economic Data And Australian Dollar

Positive Chinese economic data, particularly a rise in the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 50.8 in February, has bolstered the Australian Dollar. This reading exceeded analysts’ expectations and highlights the significance of China as a trading partner for Australia.

In Australia, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge saw a month-to-month decrease of 0.2% in February, marking the first decline since August. Despite this, the annual inflation rate rose to 2.2%, down from 2.3%.

Interest rates, influenced by central banks, directly affect currency values and economic conditions. Higher interest rates typically strengthen a country’s currency by attracting global investment.

The Fed funds rate represents the interest banks charge each other overnight and is used as an economic indicator for financial markets. Market expectations of future Fed positions can be tracked using tools such as the CME FedWatch tool, which helps forecast economic trends.

Bank Of Japan Policy And Market Implications

The Japanese Yen is holding its ground as expectations persist that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. We have also seen Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbing to 1.4%, reinforcing this perspective. These two factors play an important role in keeping the Yen strong. While the currency’s strength might not surprise those who have been watching closely, the idea that both large and small businesses in Japan anticipate higher wages gives an additional reason to believe that inflationary pressures could remain present. Even though private consumption hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, corporate investment continues to be lively, and inbound tourism is adding further momentum to the economy.

On the Australian side, there was some initial optimism due to the latest Chinese economic data. February’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, which was better than analysts had expected. Given China’s role as Australia’s biggest trading partner, this is good news for Australian exports. However, the Australian Dollar struggled against the Yen despite this data, which tells us that Yen strength is still the dominant force in this pair.

Inflation data out of Australia also gave traders something to think about. The monthly TD-MI Inflation Gauge showed a 0.2% drop in February—the first decline since August. But while that may suggest cooling inflation, the yearly figure actually moved up slightly from 2.3% to 2.2%. It’s a mixed picture, and with inflation refusing to settle entirely, the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to consider how to respond at its upcoming meetings.

When looking at interest rates across major economies, central bank policies have an effect on currency valuations. Higher rates tend to draw global investment, strengthening the respective currency, while lower rates can weaken it. That’s why traders monitor key rates such as the Fed funds rate, which influences borrowing costs in the US. Tools like the CME FedWatch provide insight into future Federal Reserve decisions, helping us anticipate how financial markets might react.

For now, with the BoJ signaling that it is in no hurry to soften its stance and the Australian economy showing both encouraging and mixed signals, those trading derivatives in this market should stay attuned to central bank commentary, inflation data, and any broader shifts in risk sentiment.

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The upcoming meetings of major central banks are expected to yield notable decisions. On 6 March, the European Central Bank is anticipated to implement a 25 basis points rate cut, which is fully priced in.

On 12 March, the Bank of Canada shows a near equal chance of a 25 basis points rate cut. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current rate on 19 March, with a 99% probability of no change, along with the US Federal Reserve, which has a 93% likelihood of not adjusting rates. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are also likely to keep their rates unchanged and cut by 25 basis points respectively on 20 March.

Market Expectations And Policy Communications

While these decisions align with market expectations, the communication from these banks will be closely watched. The ECB and SNB may see their last guaranteed cuts, while the Bank of Canada may consider a cut in April. The Bank of Japan might wait to address spring wage negotiations, and the Bank of England remains cautious regarding any adjustments.

In the case of the US Federal Reserve, traders now expect the next rate cut to occur in June, moved up from September. There is speculation on whether the Fed will acknowledge recent economic shifts or maintain current policies without easing strategies.

Market movements over the next few weeks will be shaped not just by official rate decisions but also by how policymakers guide expectations. Christine, leading the ECB, has a careful balancing act to perform. A 25 basis points cut on 6 March is already priced in, but her statements could shape forecasts for further reductions. If she signals hesitation beyond March, we may see an upward move in the euro, as traders pare back aggressive easing bets.

Tiff at the Bank of Canada faces a different situation. The 12 March meeting carries nearly even odds of a rate reduction, leaving room for volatility. If no cut is announced, Canadian yields might rise, particularly at the short end of the curve. The April meeting could then take on greater focus, with traders adjusting positions accordingly. Keeping a close eye on any shifts in his tone will be key.

Meanwhile, Kazuo at the Bank of Japan has little immediate pressure to raise or lower rates, but markets may still react if he hints at future changes. The probability of an adjustment on 19 March remains negligible, yet wage negotiations could later alter the policy discussion. If he hints that tightening is on the table, even if remote, the yen could strengthen.

Bank Of England And Swiss National Bank Outlook

Andrew’s Bank of England meeting on 20 March leans towards no shift in rates, yet traders will watch for any signs of softening. The UK economy faces uncertainty, and if he signals greater openness to easing, sterling may adjust downward. However, should he take a more reserved approach, rate-sensitive assets could experience smaller fluctuations.

The SNB is in a different position. The expectation is a 25 basis points cut, and Thomas is unlikely to surprise. If the statement signals that this move marks a pause, positioning in the Swiss franc may reflect reduced expectations for additional easing. Alternatively, a more dovish stance could put downward pressure on the currency.

Jay at the Federal Reserve finds himself scrutinised as traders anticipate a shift in June rather than September. The 20 March meeting will not bring a rate change, but his language matters. If inflation concerns persist, expectations regarding the timing of a cut could shift again. Bond markets will be particularly sensitive to any indications of concern over recent strength in economic data. A lack of urgency could lead to adjustments in positioning, while any firm signals of policy softening might amplify rate-cut expectations.

With central bank actions largely in line with forecasts, attention turns to forward guidance. Any deviation in messaging—whether hawkish or dovish—has the potential to fuel volatility. Traders should be ready for swift price reactions, particularly in the currency and bond markets, as expectations are reshaped.

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The recent developments in the Oval Office have shifted attention back to tariffs as the new month begins. Tariffs imposed by Trump on Canada and Mexico are expected to start tomorrow, with the deadline for negotiations now urgent.

Previous discussions regarding issues like fentanyl appear to have been sidelined, raising questions about whether there will be delays in the tariff implementation. US commerce secretary Lutnick has indicated that tariffs will indeed be enacted but has left details for Trump to negotiate.

Early Actions And Uncertainty

In the initial 42 days of his presidency, actions have yet to match rhetoric, leaving uncertainty about the immediate future.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are now set to take effect as scheduled, unless an unexpected shift occurs in the ongoing talks. With discussions still active, it is unclear whether any last-minute changes will emerge. Trump has continued to express confidence in his position, while Canadian and Mexican representatives remain firm in their responses. Negotiators from both countries have maintained that they will not accept terms they deem unfair.

Lutnick’s stance further complicates matters, as his statements suggest that while the tariffs are officially moving forward, the final decision remains with Trump. This adds another level of unpredictability since his previous statements on trade have not always aligned with the measures ultimately taken. Businesses with exposure to these markets must now prepare for potential disruptions, while also factoring in the possibility of concessions being made at the last moment.

The decision-making so far has not followed a clear pattern. While early signals pointed towards a strict enforcement of trade measures, past instances have shown that adjustments can be made unexpectedly. Some policy announcements have been bold, only for the actual implementation to be delayed or softened. If this happens again, markets may respond with some volatility, as initial reactions to tariffs tend to be immediate. Whether this will be a repeat of past behaviour or something entirely different remains to be seen.

Shifts In Policy Priorities

Beyond tariffs, other policy matters have received less focus in recent speeches. The fentanyl issue, which was previously described as a priority, has now been mentioned less frequently. External observers have noted that this shift in priorities appears to reflect where pressure is being applied the most. While some argue that decisions are being made strategically, others suggest that changes in direction are based on immediate circumstances.

In practical terms, the coming days could produce unexpected reactions in sectors that rely on North American trade. If the tariffs go forward without adjustment, industries that depend on cross-border supply chains will likely face cost increases. If delays occur, however, some of the recent anticipation in the market will quickly reverse. With no official statement providing further clarity, businesses must weigh the likelihood of either result based on past patterns.

Market participants watching these developments must consider which signals hold the greatest weight. Early statements from Trump have often been declarative, but adjustments have followed behind closed doors. Confidence from negotiators such as Lutnick implies that firm action is coming, yet there remains a possibility that conversations will continue until the last available moment. If there is one clear expectation, it is that uncertainty will persist until a final announcement is made.

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