The US Dollar (USD) saw gains recently, influenced by ongoing tariff concerns and declines in equity markets. Although the USD remains strong, it has slightly retreated from its peak as Asian stock markets experienced significant drops.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) performed moderately well, remaining stable against a stronger USD, while other Asian currencies and the Swiss Franc (CHF) lagged. Bond markets showed overall increases, leading to lower yields.

Expectations for US Personal Income and Spending data include a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.2% increase in spending for January, alongside a projected 0.3% rise in the core PCE deflator. The annual gain may moderate to 2.6%.

The US Dollar has been showing resilience, though it has slightly eased from its highest levels. This shift came as Asian equity markets experienced pronounced declines, which in turn influenced overall sentiment. With concerns over tariffs playing a role, the currency still holds strong, but any further movement will depend on how risk appetite develops.

On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso have demonstrated relative stability, navigating a firm Dollar without losing too much ground. This steadiness suggests a degree of support for both currencies, even as broader markets react to external pressures. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc and several Asian currencies have struggled, pointing to a divergence in how different regions are adjusting to the current climate.

Bond markets have broadly strengthened, pushing yields lower. This general increase in bond prices signals a shift towards safer assets, a move that often occurs during uncertainty in equities. Falling yields could also shape expectations around monetary policy, as investors reassess rate prospects in the wake of economic data.

Looking ahead, upcoming figures on US Personal Income and Spending are expected to show a 0.4% rise in income, while spending is forecasted to increase by 0.2%. At the same time, the core PCE deflator is anticipated to climb by 0.3%, with annual gains likely slowing slightly to 2.6%. These numbers matter because they reflect both consumer strength and inflation trends, two factors that influence how policy decisions unfold.

For those in derivatives markets, movements in currencies, bonds, and economic data must be watched closely. A strong Dollar can affect volatility elsewhere, while shifting yields may alter expectations around future rate changes. Keeping an eye on how different market segments respond will help in making better trading decisions in the coming weeks.

The Nasdaq experienced a selloff this week, driven by President Trump’s threats of 10% tariffs on China and weak economic indicators. Last Friday’s poor US Flash Services PMI and a rise in long-term inflation expectations contributed to market pressures.

The downturn is partly due to concerns that the Federal Reserve may not sufficiently reduce rates amid persistent inflation. March is anticipated to be pivotal for traders, with key Non-Farm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index reports being released before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

On the daily chart, the Nasdaq fell below December’s lowest price, indicating potential further selloff. Chart analysis suggests bearish momentum may continue unless the price recovers above the 20705 level, which could trigger bullish activity.

In the four-hour timeframe, a downward trendline signals ongoing bearish sentiment. Conversely, a breakthrough could lead to bullish positions aimed at reaching new highs.

The one-hour chart indicates sellers may dominate unless the price rises significantly. The market will be observing the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data to conclude the week.

The pressure on markets has been unmistakable. With last Friday’s weak Flash Services PMI casting doubt on economic resilience, investors have been left weighing the potential ripple effects. Inflation expectations creeping upward only added to unease. Now, with March looming and decisive data on the horizon, those navigating these moves must consider the balance of expectations versus reality. The Federal Reserve’s approach remains a sticking point—many had hoped for more aggressive rate cuts, yet inflation’s persistence is complicating that outlook.

From a technical standpoint, sellers have held firm. Falling beneath December’s lowest levels speaks volumes. This isn’t just about a temporary dip; it’s a reflection of prevailing market scepticism. Without a rebound above 20705, bearish momentum could remain dominant. We’ve seen sharp climbs from sudden reversals before, but right now, that threshold carries weight.

Looking closer at the four-hour view, the descending trendline has so far acted as a ceiling for price movements. A clear break beyond could change the narrative, potentially shifting sentiment towards the upside. Until then, downward pressure remains intact.

On the one-hour perspective, sellers appear to be steering the direction. Buyers have had little room to reverse course as long as downward pressure persists. The next key event on the radar is the US Personal Consumption Expenditures report—one that has historically influenced market confidence. With that release closing out the week, reactions could shape the short-term path ahead.

Germany’s annual CPI inflation rate remained stable at 2.3% in February, aligning with market expectations. The monthly CPI increased by 0.4%, following a 0.2% decline in January.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the preferred measure for the European Central Bank, also rose by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from January’s rate.

Additionally, the EUR/USD exchange rate showed no immediate reaction to this inflation data and was trading marginally higher at around 1.0400.

Germany’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2.3% in February, exactly as expected. The 0.4% month-on-month increase follows January’s 0.2% drop, suggesting that prices picked up some momentum at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the gauge closely watched by policymakers in Frankfurt, remained at 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Inflation isn’t accelerating, but there’s certainly no further progress towards lower levels either.

Despite the release, the common currency showed little reaction. EUR/USD barely moved, hovering just above 1.0400. Given how closely market participants monitor inflation data, this suggests that traders had already priced in the steady reading.

What does that mean for our approach in the coming weeks? Stability in German prices keeps broader expectations for the euro area intact, providing little reason to adjust assumptions just yet. However, we need to remain mindful of what comes next from policymakers. If inflation refuses to budge, arguments for holding rates higher for longer retain their strength. On the other hand, any indication of further cooling could refuel bets on easing later this year.

For now, positioning should factor in that certainty is still lacking. Short-term fluctuations might be limited, but positioning ahead of the next hints from those in charge will be where opportunities arise. Keeping an eye on how forecasts shift and how that plays into broader economic expectations will be important.

Bitcoin has dipped below $80,000, experiencing a decline of over 27% from January’s highs. This recent drop has halved the gains made since early October, with momentum at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level reinforcing the pullback.

Notably, Bitcoin has broken below the 200-day moving average, indicating increased selling pressure. The breach of the 100-day moving average and the $90,000 mark triggered significant selling activities, leading to concerns of a possible drop towards $70,000.

This week has been challenging for risk assets as the dollar remains strong. Bitcoin’s performance has worsened relative to Ethereum, influenced by the ByBit hacking incident, potentially foreshadowing more volatility.

Historically, Bitcoin’s dips do not always conform to typical market trends. Previous declines have seen rebounds, but caution remains essential given past price fluctuations.

Analysts advise careful interpretation of these technical indicators. The current selling pressure aligns with declines in other markets, suggesting a risk of a broader selloff across various asset classes.

Market conditions remain unsettled, and the latest technical developments demand close attention. The recent drop below $80,000 cannot be viewed in isolation, as it erases nearly half the gains made since early October. From a momentum perspective, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level appears to be reinforcing further pullbacks, suggesting a lack of immediate buying pressure.

The downward move has coincided with increased selling interest, as reflected in Bitcoin’s break below the 200-day moving average. Historically, breaches of this long-term indicator tend to foster uncertain sentiment. Selling accelerated when the 100-day moving average gave way, and the $90,000 threshold was lost. Now, with levels below $80,000 in focus, the risk of a further move toward $70,000 cannot be ignored.

Broader market conditions have played a role in shaping this movement. The dollar remains resilient, which has created difficulties for risk assets. Bitcoin’s weakness—particularly when compared to Ethereum—suggests that external disruptions such as the ByBit security breach could be adding another layer of stress. If last week’s underperformance develops into a sustained trend, further volatility may lie ahead.

Patterns seen in previous downturns suggest that rebounds are not out of the question. However, history also demonstrates that recoveries are not always straightforward. While past declines have been followed by rapid recoveries at times, they have also led to extended periods of lower prices. Given the nature of recent price action, it would be premature to assume that a swift recovery is imminent.

Technical indicators point to conditions that warrant close monitoring. The broader decline in markets suggests that selling pressure is not confined to Bitcoin alone. With other asset classes also facing headwinds, there is a risk that weakness may extend further across multiple sectors. Keeping a close eye on key levels and broader correlations will be essential in the coming weeks to assess whether current conditions stabilise or deteriorate further.

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3% year on year in February, aligning with forecasts. This reflects ongoing trends in the German economy as inflation rates are monitored closely.

The CPI is a key economic indicator, affecting various market factors. It is calculated based on the prices of a basket of goods and services that households typically purchase.

A 2.3% annual increase in Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February was in line with expectations, showing that inflation remains stable within the forecasted range. Inflation, measured through the CPI, tracks how the costs of everyday goods and services change over time. It is used to gauge price pressures in the economy and the potential need for policy action from central banks.

This data suggests that inflation has not deviated unexpectedly, which is essential for those following monetary policy decisions. If price growth accelerates too quickly, it could push authorities to implement measures aimed at controlling inflation, such as interest rate adjustments. On the other hand, if inflation slows more than expected, it could influence expectations about potential rate cuts.

For those trading derivatives, this information feeds directly into expectations about future pricing in financial markets. Stable inflation figures reduce uncertainty, giving market participants room to assess how other variables, such as monetary policy and broader economic shifts, might evolve. Recent macroeconomic updates, particularly from central banks, will be key in shaping market sentiment.

With inflation aligning with forecasts, attention may shift to upcoming statements from policymakers, who will give further insights into how they interpret these numbers. Reactions from central bankers often move markets, as they guide expectations on future actions. When these individuals signal shifts in policy, it ripples across bond markets, currency valuations, and equity indices, which in turn impacts derivatives pricing.

Recent statements from policymakers in major economies indicate a cautious approach. Christine, who heads the European Central Bank, has repeatedly stressed the need for patience in assessing inflation trends. With CPI data not straying from predictions, her stance may remain measured, avoiding any abrupt policy shifts. Fellow officials within the institution have also reiterated the importance of waiting for more evidence before making decisions on monetary easing.

In the US, Jerome has maintained a balanced approach, stating that policy adjustments will depend on how inflation develops relative to growth and employment figures. Since US economic performance remains resilient, he may not rush into any changes. Traders monitoring rate expectations should continue scrutinising speeches and meeting minutes for any shifts in tone.

This data also follows recent inflation reports from other parts of Europe, where price trends have shown some divergence. The UK’s inflation figures have remained somewhat persistent, while other European economies have seen more noticeable declines. This could influence how economies navigate their respective paths on interest rate decisions.

Those navigating derivatives markets must remain attentive to any shifts in sentiment. Eurozone yield movements reflect changing bets on future rate cuts, while currency markets adjust based on how these expectations compare across regions. With Germany’s inflation data aligning with estimates, immediate volatility may be subdued, though upcoming events could reshape expectations abruptly.

One aspect that traders should watch closely in the coming weeks is employment data, as central bankers have tied future rate movements to broader economic performance. Strong labour market figures could push rate cuts further into the distance, while signs of weakness might see policymakers reconsider their timeline.

Advancements in economic performance, particularly in manufacturing and consumer spending, will also play a role in shaping forecasts. Any sharp deviations from expected trends in these areas may prompt reassessments of financial market positions.

The S&P 500 experienced a decline due to new tariff threats from Trump, including an additional 10% on China. This pressure followed weak US Flash Services PMI data and a rise in long-term inflation expectations, reaching a 30-year high in the Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

Market concerns centre on how quickly the Federal Reserve can cut rates amidst ongoing inflation. The upcoming reports on non-farm payrolls and consumer price index in March are seen as critical, with benign data potentially sparking a rally while negative data could trigger a bear market.

Chart analysis indicates the S&P 500 is at a pivotal trendline, with dip-buyers aiming for a rally to new highs. Sellers hope for a breakdown past the trendline to bolster bearish positions at the 5720 level.

The 4-hour chart shows a downward trendline, with sellers poised to act on any pullbacks. Conversely, buyers are looking for upward breaks to establish new high positions. The 1-hour chart indicates a similar sentiment, with buyers seeking bounces and sellers eyeing possible breaks below key levels.

Today marks the conclusion of the week with the release of US PCE data.

Personal consumption expenditures data will be key in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve actions. A result above forecasts could reinforce concerns over sustained inflation, leading to speculation that rate cuts may be postponed. A softer reading, on the other hand, might bolster hopes that easing monetary policy will come sooner than later. Given how closely markets are watching inflation metrics, any surprises in either direction are likely to cause a quick shift in sentiment.

With traders weighing the impact of a potential shift in US trade policy, recent tariff announcements add another layer of uncertainty. A fresh escalation in tensions between the US and China could further disrupt supply chains and raise costs, which in turn may complicate the Fed’s task of reining in inflation. Donald’s tariff move comes at a time when inflation expectations, as seen in the University of Michigan survey, have already surged to levels last witnessed decades ago. These factors combined offer little clarity on how soon policymakers will be comfortable cutting interest rates.

Looking ahead to next week, the focus shifts to labour market data. Non-farm payrolls remain one of the most widely watched releases, and a strong report could reassert concerns that inflationary pressures will persist longer than previously thought. If job figures come in weaker than expected, traders might start pricing in a looser policy stance sooner. The consumer price index report follows shortly after and will likely be another defining moment, as it directly influences Fed policy outlooks. Taken together, these reports will indicate whether the recent inflation uptick is becoming a longer-term issue or just a short-term fluctuation.

From a technical perspective, price action remains inside important levels. Both short-term and medium-term charts suggest a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Participants taking long positions are targeting a break beyond the trendline resistance, which could open the door to further advances. Meanwhile, those betting against the market are watching for signs of weakness, particularly a move lower that could trigger a broader downside shift around 5720.

On the shorter timeframe, sellers maintain control as long as price remains under the key descending trendline. Any rallies into resistance zones are likely to be met with further selling pressure unless buyers manage to push beyond key breakout levels. If support holds and demand reappears, a new leg higher could materialise, forcing those on the opposite side to reassess positioning.

With this week drawing to a close, attention now turns to today’s PCE release. A reading in line with recent expectations might produce a muted response, but anything that deviates from forecasts could significantly move equity markets. Given the current backdrop of inflation concerns, trade policy shifts, and upcoming employment data, volatility may persist into next week.

In February, Germany’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 2.8%, surpassing expectations of 2.7%. This data reflects ongoing trends in consumer price changes.

The EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0400 following the release of January’s PCE inflation data. This indicates the US Dollar’s fluctuating price dynamics.

Gold prices have dipped below $2,840, reaching a three-week low due to prevailing bearish sentiment and uncertainties tied to current trade policies.

GBP/USD continues to hold above 1.2600 as the Greenback fluctuates post-PCE data.

Looking ahead, key events include the US Payrolls report, the ECB rate meeting, and ITV results for the week commencing 3rd March.

Germany’s February inflation data rising to 2.8% instead of the predicted 2.7% suggests that cost pressures remain higher than some had anticipated. This means that expectations around European Central Bank policy decisions may need reassessment. If inflation persists above estimated levels, policy measures could become less predictable, which in turn affects long-term positions in currency derivatives. Market participants ought to consider this when evaluating the euro’s future moves against other majors.

The EUR/USD pair holding at 1.0400 following the release of January’s PCE inflation figures tells us a few things. The stability seen here suggests the market had already priced in prior expectations, but this does not mean volatility is off the table. With the Federal Reserve’s data dependence, any unexpected movements in employment reports or inflation readings in the United States could quickly cause a shift in positioning. Staying aware of scheduled economic releases will be key in refining entry and exit points.

A decline in gold prices below $2,840 signals a bearish sentiment, driven by external factors such as trade issues and potential changes in economic policy. This three-week low suggests that enthusiasm for the metal has waned, at least temporarily. If downward pressure persists, sentiment-driven declines could continue, particularly if there is additional strength in the dollar or a shift in bond yields. Observing how prices react around this level will help determine whether this is merely a short-term retreat or the beginning of a more sustained downturn.

Meanwhile, sterling has maintained a position above 1.2600 against the US dollar, despite post-PCE market fluctuations. This implies that the pound has found some stability, helped by broader sentiment around monetary policy and economic indicators in the UK. Whether or not this level holds will depend largely on incoming employment numbers, central bank commentary, and shifts in risk appetite among major investors.

Looking ahead, key scheduled events such as the US Payrolls report, the ECB rate announcement, and ITV’s earnings results set the stage for renewed volatility. Labour data from the US will guide expectations on future rate moves, while the ECB’s decision will offer more insight into whether policymakers feel inflation risks are sufficiently contained. Corporate earnings, particularly from media and consumer-sensitive sectors, will provide a different look at economic health and spending trends. Each of these events holds the potential to shift market sentiment, and positioning accordingly will be important for those navigating short-term price swings.

The distribution of forecasts for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is essential for understanding market reactions. A deviation from these expectations can lead to surprises in the market.

Most forecasts may cluster near the upper bound of the range, meaning even results within the estimated range can cause unexpected outcomes. For the PCE Year-on-Year estimates, the consensus stands at 2.5%, with a range from 2.4% to 2.7%.

For the Month-on-Month PCE, the consensus estimate is 0.3%. In terms of Core PCE Year-on-Year, the consensus is 2.6%, while the Month-on-Month Core PCE consensus is 0.3%. The market will primarily focus on the Core PCE figures, which show a tendency towards lower expectations.

A clear expectation has been set, but the way forecasts are distributed plays a key role in how markets respond. When most projections bunch up toward one side of the spectrum, even an outcome that falls within the anticipated range can spark reactions that might seem out of proportion. This is particularly relevant when traders have positioned themselves based on a narrow set of likely results.

With estimates for annual PCE inflation holding between 2.4% and 2.7%, the likelihood of a reading outside this window is small, but not impossible. The median expectation of 2.5% suggests a slightly higher bias, and if the figure lands on the upper end of the range, market participants who assumed a softer number could reassess positions quickly. Monthly data at 0.3% indicates a stable trend, yet the moment-to-moment market dynamic hinges less on whether the number matches consensus and more on how expectations were set beforehand.

When stripping out more variable elements, the focus naturally turns to Core PCE. The Year-on-Year measure sits at an estimate of 2.6%, while the Month-on-Month level aligns with the broader PCE estimate of 0.3%. What stands out here is that expectations appear anchored toward the lower end rather than exhibiting an even spread. That detail matters, as it implies that even a modest upside miss could drive repricing efforts across multiple asset classes.

It becomes apparent that market adjustments may not necessarily reflect the absolute result, but rather whether traders were properly positioned for it ahead of time. Those who anticipate a more subdued print may find themselves needing to react quickly if the data leans higher. On the other hand, if figures come in as expected or lower, positioning dynamics could lead to a more restrained response, given that expectations have already adjusted downward.

The data release will demand close attention, not just for what the numbers reveal but for how sentiment had formed in advance. In situations like these, it’s often not the figure itself but the extent to which expectations were met or defied that drives movement. Over the coming weeks, a reassessment of positioning could take place as market participants adjust to fresh information.

Germany’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in February. This figure exceeded the anticipated rise of 0.5%.

This increase in Germany’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) might not seem substantial at first glance, but it does set a tone for the broader economic trend. A 0.6% rise, exceeding the expected 0.5%, signals that inflationary pressures remain at play.

For those who watch inflation figures closely, this suggests that price increases are still showing resilience. With Germany being the largest economy in the eurozone, the knock-on effects could extend beyond its borders. A stronger-than-expected reading may influence decisions within the European Central Bank (ECB), especially regarding interest rates.

Looking ahead, this data nudges traders to re-evaluate their outlook on inflation-linked assets. If inflation continues to surprise on the upside, expectations around rate cuts might need to be adjusted. Movements in bond yields could follow, which in turn might affect pricing in derivative markets.

This is where vigilance is essential. One report, on its own, is not enough to shift an entire strategy, but when placed within a broader dataset, it starts shaping a picture. Since inflation expectations interact with various asset classes, staying ahead of the next release may offer an opportunity to anticipate shifts in market sentiment.

Keeping a careful eye on upcoming statements from policymakers will be the next step. Any hints that decision-makers are concerned about persistent inflation could send ripples through interest rate markets. How the ECB reacts may determine how traders position themselves in the coming weeks.

Gold has fallen below a major upward trendline, reflecting increased bearish momentum amid a selloff in the US stock market. The decline in gold prices is compounded by weaker economic data and rising inflation expectations.

The next Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will be important for market movement, with strong inflation data expected to impact gold negatively. Currently, the price is pulling back from all-time highs, and buyers may find better risk-reward potential around the 2790 level, while sellers target a break below this level towards 2600.

Technical analysis on the 4-hour chart indicates a downward trendline that characterises the ongoing bearish sentiment. Sellers are likely to push down towards the 2790 level if the price experiences a pullback, while buyers need to see a break above the trendline to regain bullish momentum.

On the 1-hour chart, a minor downward trendline suggests continued bearish pressure. Sellers may utilise this trendline to drive prices lower, while buyers aim for a breakthrough to the next trendline. Today, the week concludes with the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

Gold’s movement remains in focus as price action struggles to find support amid a broader market selloff. The dip below a key trendline, which had previously offered strong support, signals that sellers remain in control. With economic data continuing to point towards higher inflation expectations, pressure on gold has yet to subside. Traders are watching whether the upcoming NFP and CPI reports reinforce this sentiment or provide some relief.

Jerome’s role in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making is once again under scrutiny. Inflation remains above target, and the Fed’s stance on rate policy will depend heavily on whether incoming data supports further tightening or allows for a shift in tone. Market participants should be prepared for volatility as any indication of persistent inflation could weigh further on gold. Inflation data exceeding forecasts has historically led to a strengthening dollar, which typically puts downward pressure on commodities.

The technical outlook aligns with this broader theme of uncertainty. On the 4-hour chart, a declining trendline remains intact, reflecting a pattern of lower highs. If gold attempts an upward move, it would need to break above this resistance to suggest a shift in momentum. Otherwise, sellers remain motivated to drive prices down towards the key 2790 level, which has acted as a pivotal point. A clean break below this could expose 2600 as the next target.

Shorter timeframes paint a similar picture. On the 1-hour chart, a minor trendline reinforces the current downward structure. This level is frequently tested, and traders can expect sellers to defend it aggressively. A failure to break through keeps pressure towards the recent lows, while any sustained move above this trendline would signal early signs of strength.

Today’s release of US PCE data adds another layer of complexity. Market reaction will hinge on whether inflationary pressures remain strong or show signs of easing. If the data comes in hotter than expected, gold may struggle to find buyers at current levels. Conversely, weaker inflation figures could provide a short-term reprieve, especially if market sentiment shifts in anticipation of a more cautious approach from policymakers.

Looking ahead, attention remains firmly on upcoming economic reports. The reaction to NFP and CPI will determine whether the current downtrend accelerates or stabilises. Volatility is expected as traders position for potential shifts in price direction.