European stocks have commenced March strongly, with the DAX rising over 2% as risk sentiment improves. Major indices are experiencing solid gains at the beginning of the week, with the DAX on track for its eighth gain in nine weeks and nearly doubling in value since its 2022 low.

Other indices are also performing well, with the CAC 40 up 1.4%, the UK FTSE increasing by 0.8%, the IBEX rising 0.4%, and the FTSE MIB gaining 1.0%.

Market Optimism And Recent Trends

The upward trend follows a period of concern regarding trade policies; however, market participants have remained optimistic, resulting in substantial rewards. Last year, European stocks exhibited a similar surge early on, which paused between May and August.

The current rebound across markets is being propelled by a mix of strong corporate earnings, renewed confidence in monetary policy, and better-than-expected economic data. Investors are showing a higher appetite for risk, which is reflected in both equity performance and derivatives activity.

Looking back at last year’s pattern, there was a strong move in the first quarter, followed by a period of slower growth during the middle of the year. The similarities between now and then are hard to ignore. If momentum continues at this pace, traders will need to assess whether the trend remains sustainable or if another slowdown is likely. Shifts in inflation data or central bank rhetoric could easily alter the current enthusiasm.

Monetary policy expectations remain a key factor in maintaining the current pace. Hopes remain that central bankers will refrain from taking a more restrictive stance in the near term. Growth in European equities suggests that this expectation is still intact, but any unexpected statements from policymakers may prompt swift reactions in futures and options markets.

Valuations And Sector Performance

Another element worth considering is how valuations compare to previous peaks. Some sectors are showing signs of high valuations once again, which raises questions about how much further gains can extend without evidence of further earnings strength. If sentiment remains strong and economic indicators continue to deliver positive surprises, there may still be room for further upside.

Broadly speaking, traders need to pay attention to shifts in volatility. The recent calm suggests confidence, yet such conditions can change quickly. If volatility picks up, particularly in options markets, it will offer a clearer idea of whether market participants are hedging for declines or simply adjusting positions.

Market participants should also be mindful of how external factors are shaping sentiment. Developments in the US economy, currency movements, and commodity prices all feed into Europe’s financial outlook. A rapid change in any of these areas could send ripple effects across equity markets and, in turn, impact future positioning in derivatives.

For now, momentum trades have performed exceptionally well. However, history suggests that long periods of gains often come with phases of consolidation. If traders begin securing profits at a faster pace, short-term pullbacks are possible. On the other hand, as long as economic releases continue to align with expectations, confidence may be maintained despite minor setbacks.

It remains essential to track shifts in buying behaviour. If inflows into equities and related instruments start slowing, it could indicate that traders are waiting for the next catalyst before pushing prices higher. Likewise, any adjustments in sector rotation patterns could give clues about where market participants expect the strongest returns in the coming weeks.

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Tracking key price levels in AMD stock is vital for day traders and swing traders to make informed decisions. Price levels are understood by institutions and market makers, leading to notable reactions.

AMD stock closed at $99.86 on 28 February 2025, with pre-market trading showing an increase to $101.18. The ability to maintain above the psychological level of $100 will influence short-term trends.

Key Support And Resistance Levels

Should the stock drop below $100, notable support levels exist at $93.12, $93.70, and $94.28. Conversely, if it remains above $100, resistance levels to observe include $102.65 and $103.92.

If AMD stock breaks beyond $110, the next resistance will be at $113.20 and $116.70. Key trading strategies involve position trading, swing trading, and short selling based on these identified levels.

Volume Profile assists in pinpointing liquidity zones, while psychological levels attract trading activity. Significant resistance and support levels include $100.00, $93.12 to $93.70, and $102.65 to $110.72.

A breakdown of $100 could indicate a decline toward $93-$94, while movement above $110 might lead to gains up to $113-$116. This report aims to provide traders with a comprehensive framework for decision-making.

The pre-market move above $100 suggests growing interest at this round number, a price point that often acts as a battleground between buyers and sellers. If demand holds firm, traders are likely to capitalise on upward momentum, eyeing the next resistance levels. Staying above this threshold would indicate control in favour of buyers, increasing the likelihood of a move toward $102.65 and beyond.

However, the market does not move in a straight line. A failure to sustain levels above $100 could trigger profit-taking, forcing a retest of lower support zones. Watching $94.28, $93.70, and $93.12 becomes necessary in such a scenario, as these have historically seen buying interest. If those fail to hold, a deeper retracement may follow.

Impact Of Volume On Price Movements

Volume plays a role in determining how meaningful these moves are. Higher participation around these levels strengthens their validity. Traders who incorporate volume-based strategies should pay close attention to how much activity accompanies any breakout or breakdown. A move through resistance with strong volume suggests conviction, whereas a low-volume breakout may warrant caution.

Short-term traders will need to remain flexible. A push past $110 would not be surprising if momentum builds, with $113.20 and $116.70 marking areas where selling interest could emerge. As these levels approach, traders should monitor whether buying pressure persists or begins to wane.

In the sessions ahead, price movement around psychological barriers, alongside liquidity pockets, will provide additional clues. Reacting to these shifts with well-defined strategies becomes a key part of generating consistency. Whether focusing on intraday opportunities or holding positions for extended moves, maintaining awareness of how price behaves at these thresholds will help navigate the coming weeks.

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Market expectations for interest rates among G8FX show varying trends. For the Federal Reserve, a cut of 63 basis points is anticipated, with a 95% chance of no changes at the next meeting.

The European Central Bank is projected to reduce rates by 81 basis points, with a 96% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting. The Bank of England may see a reduction of 52 basis points, with a 95% likelihood of maintaining rates.

Bank Of Canada And Reserve Bank Of Australia Outlook

The Bank of Canada is expected to lower rates by 60 basis points, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut by 52 basis points, both with high probabilities of stability at their next meetings.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecasts a drop of 72 basis points, contrasting with the Swiss National Bank’s expected decline of 35 basis points. The Bank of Japan anticipates no changes in rates, projecting a 34 basis point increase.

The estimates for interest rate adjustments among the G8 central banks suggest a divergence in monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve, with a projected reduction of 63 basis points this year, remains in focus as markets assess incoming economic data. Traders currently see a near-certainty that rates will hold steady at the next meeting, reinforcing the idea that policymakers will wait for further signals before acting.

Similarly, expectations surrounding the European Central Bank reflect a well-anchored belief that cuts are on the horizon. The anticipated reduction of 81 basis points suggests that market participants view economic conditions as warranting looser policy soon. With a 96% probability of easing at the upcoming meeting, pricing indicates confidence that policymakers will prioritise growth concerns.

In contrast, the Bank of England’s projected adjustment of 52 basis points appears more measured. While pricing suggests a preference for maintaining rates in the near term, expectations for a shift later in the year remain. Inflation trends and domestic economic performance will likely dictate the timing of any adjustments, leaving scope for markets to reassess positions as new data emerges.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of Canada is expected to lower rates by 60 basis points. Despite this downward trajectory, the probability of no immediate change signals that policymakers remain cautious. We see a similar pattern in Australia, where the Reserve Bank is priced for a 52 basis point decline, yet traders lean towards an extended period of steady policy before any shift occurs.

Further south, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stands out with its projected 72 basis point reduction. This suggests that markets anticipate a more pronounced easing cycle compared to some of its peers. Switzerland, on the other hand, presents a different picture. The Swiss National Bank’s expected reduction of 35 basis points appears more controlled, aligning with its typically cautious approach towards monetary adjustments.

Bank Of Japan Policy Outlook

Meanwhile, Japan remains a unique case. The Bank of Japan is projected to raise rates by 34 basis points, setting it apart from the broader trend of easing among its counterparts. Given the country’s long-standing battle with low inflation, any policy tightening will likely be approached carefully, and markets will be monitoring official communications for any indications of a shift.

Taken together, these expectations highlight a range of policy responses to differing economic pressures. Traders should remain attentive to data releases and central bank commentary in the coming weeks, as any adjustments to these projections could influence market positioning.

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Key price levels in NVIDIA stock (NVDA) are important for day traders and short-term swing traders as they can influence price reactions. The most recent earnings report indicated an expected market move of 10.6%, suggesting potential volatility.

Support levels include $113.00 – $116.50, rooted in technical levels, and $110.60 as a significant support area. The $101.50 – $101.75 range is near the psychological threshold of $100, attracting institutional activity.

Key Resistance Levels

Resistance levels feature $127.20 – $127.70 and $129.00 – $130.00, which traders should monitor for potential profit-taking. Further breakout targets include $142.50 – $143.00 and $148.65, near key psychological levels.

Volume profiles and psychological thresholds help identify these key areas, allowing traders to make informed decisions. Managing positions based on these levels can enhance strategic trading, guiding actions in rising or falling markets.

The earnings-driven volatility implied by recent market expectations indicates a potential shift in short-term price action. Given the anticipated fluctuation, traders should closely observe how price reacts at established support and resistance levels.

Lower thresholds around $113.00 – $116.50 have demonstrated previous buying interest. These zones could serve as areas where buyers look to step in again, particularly in the event of selling pressure following earnings-related movement. The $110.60 mark carries additional weight due to its proximity to prior demand levels, making it a zone where liquidity might concentrate. If a more pronounced decline occurs, the $101.50 – $101.75 range becomes even more relevant. Psychological levels around $100 have historically drawn institutional interest, meaning this range could prompt shifts in positioning.

On the upside, price areas between $127.20 – $127.70 and $129.00 – $130.00 remain points where short-term traders may reassess risk. Profit-taking tends to emerge in such zones, particularly when stretched moves occur rapidly. If momentum sustains beyond these levels, further projections come into focus. The $142.50 – $143.00 range represents a target in line with historical extensions, while $148.65 remains a notable upper bound in the short term.

Volume And Market Sentiment

Volume profiles reinforce these areas, reflecting prior interest and liquidity concentrations. When tracking price movement, reactions at these thresholds hint at near-term sentiment. Execution strategies should account for these markers, particularly as volatility expands. Recognising where liquidity is likely to accumulate offers a way to manage entries and exits more effectively.

The coming sessions will likely present a test of these boundaries. With positioning adjusting to post-earnings developments, order flow dynamics may amplify moves in either direction. Adapting strategies based on these reactions should remain a priority.

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UK mortgage approvals in January reached 66.19K, slightly above the expected 65.65K. The prior figure was revised down from 66.53K to 66.51K.

Net consumer credit stood at £1.7 billion, up from a previous £1.0 billion, which was adjusted to £1.1 billion. Additionally, net borrowing of mortgage debt rose by £0.9 billion, bringing the total to £4.2 billion for January, after a rise of £1.1 billion in the previous month. The annual growth rate of mortgage lending increased to 1.8%, continuing its upward trend since April of the prior year.

Mortgage Approval Trends

Mortgage approvals edged ahead of forecasts, hinting at steady demand for housing loans. Though the difference is minor, it suggests a level of resilience despite broader economic concerns. A slight downward revision in the prior month’s figure does little to shift the broader trend, as approvals remain elevated when viewed against the last several months.

Consumer credit expanded noticeably, with borrowing surpassing December’s tally after its own small revision upward. The month’s increase follows a pattern of rising household debt, pointing to greater consumer willingness to take on financial obligations. Whether this stems from confidence in income stability or simply necessity in the face of rising costs is open to interpretation. Either way, spending behaviour reflects a shift in borrowing appetite, which will have wider financial implications.

An increase in mortgage debt aligns with growing housing activity, reinforcing the data from approvals. The rise, while not extreme, shows that buyers continue to navigate the market despite concerns about affordability and interest rate expectations. The ongoing climb in annual mortgage lending growth suggests financing conditions remain accommodating enough to support borrowing. With lending momentum strengthening since last spring, the trend indicates a housing credit environment that is loosening rather than tightening.

Economic Implications

What is clear from these figures is that borrowing demand has held firm into the start of the year. That holds relevance beyond just the housing sector, as it feeds into wider economic conditions. With inflation pressures and interest rate moves still shaping decisions, these trends provide insight into how markets may respond in the coming weeks.

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The UK manufacturing PMI for February stands at 46.9, revised from a preliminary 46.4, marking the lowest level in 14 months. This decline is accompanied by significant job losses, the steepest since mid-2020, as output and new orders are decreasing at an accelerated rate.

Manufacturers are facing low demand and client confidence, alongside rising cost pressures. Changes in the national minimum wage and employer NICs are contributing to inflation concerns, which are affecting employment levels negatively.

Rising Costs And Reduced Purchasing

As costs rise at the fastest rate in over two years, purchasing activities and stock levels are being reduced. The current economic climate poses challenges for the Bank of England due to stagnant growth and escalating prices.

This latest PMI reading confirms that factory output is contracting at a pace not seen in over a year. A downward revision only reinforces that conditions are deteriorating. When production weakens this way, it suggests that businesses are scaling back, either due to weaker sales, rising overheads, or a mixture of both. Job losses deepening to levels last recorded in 2020 point to a sector shedding roles at a worrying speed. That was a time of historic disruptions, something that makes this trend particularly telling.

Declining new orders further solidify the argument that confidence remains low. Fewer incoming purchases signal that firms are hesitant to commit to future activity. That lack of appetite for goods, whether from domestic buyers or international customers, does not happen in isolation. It goes hand in hand with broader economic concerns. When businesses see weaker demand ahead, they often react by cutting back on workforce numbers to manage costs. That is precisely what we are witnessing.

Pressure on company expenses is mounting. A higher minimum wage, alongside increased employer NICs, only adds to those worries. These policies, while intended to support wages, also translate into added financial strain for businesses, particularly for those already grappling with weak sales. Any upward force on wages can lead some to rethink hiring plans or even look for ways to trim existing payrolls. While these factors are policy-driven, they intersect with existing inflation challenges, compounding pricing pressures across supply chains.

Monetary Policy Challenges

The speed at which input costs are climbing is now the fastest in over two years. This creates another dilemma for businesses, who must decide whether to pass on these extra expenses to customers or absorb them at the expense of already pressured margins. Increased caution over spending is reflected in purchasing activity. When firms scale back orders for raw materials, it is often a sign that they expect subdued demand to continue. Running down stock levels suggests a reluctance to hold excess inventory, which ties up capital that might be needed elsewhere.

At a broader level, this presents a challenge for monetary policy. Stagnant growth paired with rising costs puts decision-makers in a difficult position. Price pressures would normally support the argument for keeping policy tight, yet weak output does the opposite, calling for potential easing. The balance between these factors will need to be monitored closely in the coming weeks.

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The USD/CAD pair has dropped sharply to approximately 1.4400, driven by a weaker US Dollar and anticipation of US President Trump’s impending tariff announcement on Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump’s plan includes proposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, alongside a potential 10% on China.

Contrastingly, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariffs could be lower than 25%, possibly benefiting the Canadian Dollar. Additionally, a rise in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts has contributed to the US Dollar’s decline, with the likelihood of a rate cut increasing to 74% for the June meeting.

Market Anticipation And Key Data

Market focus will shift towards upcoming US economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, slated for release at 15:00 GMT. The PMI is projected to show a slight decline, with an estimate of 50.8 compared to 50.9 in January.

This sudden drop in the currency pair suggests that traders are reacting strongly to concerns surrounding trade policy, as well as shifting expectations regarding monetary policy. The mention of tariffs from the White House has added pressure on the US Dollar, leading to increased volatility. While numbers as high as 25% had been floated, Howard’s suggestion that they could be lower has introduced an element of uncertainty that makes it harder to determine the longer-term direction just yet.

Another driving factor remains the shifting outlook for Federal Reserve policy. With the probability of a rate cut in June climbing above 70%, the US Dollar has struggled to hold ground. Lower interest rates would typically weaken a currency, as they reduce returns on dollar-denominated assets. This has helped the Canadian Dollar gain traction, particularly in a period when traders are highly sensitive to policy shifts.

Looking forward, market participants will closely monitor incoming US economic data. The release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI will provide fresh insight into economic momentum. A reading of 50.8, while only a minor step down from the previous 50.9, would still suggest that the manufacturing sector remains close to stagnation. If the number comes in lower than expected, traders will see further justification for rate cuts, most likely accelerating selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Future Market Considerations

For those engaging in derivatives, price swings may be sharper as uncertainty around tariffs and monetary policy persists. If Trump’s tariffs end up being lower than some expect, it could generate some relief, though this remains speculative. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s next signals will be closely followed, as shifts in expectations around rate policy tend to move markets substantially.

Keeping track of these developments over the coming days will be essential. Data releases, official statements, and shifts in trader sentiment could quickly alter the equation.

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Eurozone manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in February, with the final PMI at 47.6, up from a preliminary 47.3 and prior 46.6. Despite the overall contraction, Germany’s PMI reached a two-year high, indicating stabilisation in factory production to start the year.

New orders declined at the slowest rate since May 2022, suggesting potential growth in the coming months. However, job cuts increased in February, a common occurrence even after a recession ends.

Business Confidence And Economic Factors

Most companies expressed optimism about the future, with the confidence index slightly above the long-term average. Factors such as political stability in Germany and the possibility of ending the conflict in Ukraine may contribute positively.

Factory activity in the euro area remains in decline, though at a slower pace than in previous months. A reading below 50 still marks contraction, yet the higher PMI figures hint at conditions becoming less severe. The latest uptick offers a reason to monitor output levels more closely, as even modest improvements can influence expectations.

Germany, often seen as the industrial backbone of the region, saw its manufacturing gauge rise to levels not observed in two years. While still in negative territory, this shift implies a reduced strain on production. If this pattern holds, it may lead to steadier operations and fewer disruptions in supply chains. The adjustment in new orders supports this view, as the downward trend is losing momentum. If businesses adapt to lower costs and stabilising demand, the sector could see renewed activity.

Nevertheless, employers are not slowing down workforce reductions. Cutting jobs can persist even after downturns ease, as businesses remain cautious when faced with uncertain conditions. The persistence of layoffs reflects cost-saving measures rather than imminent weakness, though an extended period of reductions could interfere with purchasing power and demand for goods.

Monitoring Future Developments

Optimism remains present, supported by factors that may improve broader confidence. Political steadiness in Germany provides reassurance for companies planning ahead. A clearer path regarding external conflicts could also remove uncertainties that weigh on economic sentiment. Expectations for future conditions have moved above historical norms, which may translate into steadier investment decisions.

While these elements shape the outlook, the focus now shifts to upcoming data releases. Further signs of demand picking up would reinforce the idea that the downturn is losing strength. If firms continue adjusting operations in response to changing orders, it will reveal whether the latest trend has staying power.

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Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) experienced a 43% decline in value over the past three months. The stock shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave ZigZag correction.

Initially, COIN rose from a September 2024 low of $146 to $352 in December 2024. It is now undergoing a corrective pullback targeting $201 to $132, suggesting the decline may soon conclude.

Potential Rebound Scenario

As the stock is expected to rebound, it could reach the $260 mark, indicating a potential 30% increase. A continued rally could push prices toward $300, representing a 50% gain from current levels.

Looking at recent movements, it’s evident that the stock has been through a structured five-wave rise, followed by a correction that aligns with classic market behaviour. This suggests that what we are seeing now is likely not the start of a prolonged downtrend but rather a necessary retracement before further upside potential.

From its September low, the price more than doubled in just three months, which was a rapid climb. That kind of swift movement often leads to corrections, especially when momentum slows. Now that it has pulled back, attention turns to whether this correction is reaching exhaustion. The targeted zone of $201 to $132 gives a range where buyers may start stepping in again. If the price stabilises around this area, that would reinforce the idea that the decline was merely a pause before the next move higher.

Short Term Trading Considerations

If this expected rebound plays out, we would be looking at an initial recovery toward $260. That would wipe away a good portion of the recent losses. Beyond that, if buying pressure persists and broader market conditions are supportive, prices could push toward $300. That would mark a complete recovery from the pullback and reinforce the idea that the overall trend is still pointing higher.

For those focused on trading shorter-term movements, it’s important to assess whether the current decline is indeed nearing its end. Watching volume changes and reaction near the mentioned price levels could provide clarity on when momentum starts shifting back in favour of buyers.

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Germany’s final manufacturing PMI for February reached 46.5, an increase from the preliminary reading of 46.1 and the previous 45.0, marking a 25-month high. The output index rose to 48.9, indicating a nine-month high, but employment in the sector is experiencing a sharp decline.

Incoming orders have decreased again but at a slower rate than since April 2022. Signs of improvement in order backlog and a weakening of production declines over the last two months have been noted, with some growth in intermediate goods and near stability in capital goods.

Concerns Over Sustainability

Concerns remain about the sustainability of the upward trend in global industrial activity. Job cuts have sharply increased since mid-2023 as companies have been reducing their workforce despite stabilization signals in production.

Demand remains weak, evidenced by shortened supplier delivery times in February, suggesting excess production and transport capacity. Both finished goods and inputs continue to see inventory reductions.

The outlook ahead is positive but tempered compared to the start of the year. A new government and their economic plans, along with the need for significant investment to modernise public infrastructure, are essential for sustainable improvements in Germany.

That increase to 46.5 is the highest Germany’s manufacturing PMI has been in just over two years. While that is encouraging, it is still below the 50.0 threshold, meaning contraction continues, albeit at a slower pace. The rise in output to 48.9 further suggests that production is no longer declining as sharply. However, the steep drop in employment raises concerns about whether this recovery is stable or driven mostly by temporary factors.

A slower reduction in incoming orders hints at potential stabilisation, but since order books are still shrinking, demand remains weak. The improvement in intermediate goods and near stability in capital goods give reasons for cautious optimism, though they do not yet indicate a broad-based rebound. The backlog of work not deteriorating as fast as before is a positive sign, suggesting that companies may be seeing better prospects ahead.

Impact Of Workforce Reductions

Job reductions, however, bring a different picture. Businesses have been trimming their workforce in large numbers since mid-2023. The persistence of these cuts, despite moderation in production declines, suggests that firms are still bracing for weaker conditions rather than preparing for growth. This tension between improving production figures and deteriorating employment numbers complicates the near-term outlook.

Delivery times shortening in February supports the argument that demand remains soft. When suppliers are able to deliver products more quickly, it often signals that there is excess capacity in the system rather than strong consumer and business demand. Paired with the ongoing decline in inventories for both finished goods and raw materials, this suggests that manufacturers are still cautious about restocking. If they were expecting a sustained recovery, inventory rebuilding would typically begin.

The road ahead depends on more than just the manufacturing sector itself. A new government brings the potential for policy shifts, particularly in terms of investment in infrastructure and economic reform. Any efforts aimed at modernising public facilities and industries could provide longer-term benefits and stimulate activity across multiple sectors. However, without a broader increase in demand, these measures alone will struggle to create momentum.

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