Gold rose over 3% on Friday, trading at $4,510 after rebounding from $4,375. The move came as the conflict entered its fifth week and inflation pressures increased. US equities fell to 7-month lows as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar rose. The US Dollar Index was up 0.30% at 100.16, while the US 10-year yield climbed by nearly two basis points to 4.428%.

Geopolitical Escalation And Market Shock

Reports said President Donald Trump delayed a pause on attacks on Iranian energy sites until April 6. The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is deploying an extra 10,000 troops, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz is closed. WTI crude gained nearly 5% to $98.33 per barrel. The University of Michigan said March consumer sentiment fell from 55.5 to 53.3, versus a 54 forecast. One-year inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, while five-year expectations stayed at 3.2%. Traders priced in six basis points of tightening by year-end. Gold faced resistance near $4,560; a break above $4,544 could target the 100-day SMA at $4,605, then $4,736 and $4,800. Support levels were $4,500, $4,306, and $4,098. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. This was the highest annual purchase since records began.

Trade Setup For Elevated Risk Off Conditions

Given the market’s reaction to the escalating Middle East conflict, the normal inverse relationship between gold, the US Dollar, and Treasury yields has broken down. We see all three assets rising simultaneously, which is a classic sign of a flight to safety overwhelming traditional market mechanics. Traders should focus on strategies that benefit from sustained geopolitical fear and rising volatility in the coming weeks. We should consider buying call options on gold or gold-backed ETFs to capitalize on the strong upward momentum. A decisive break above the $4,560 resistance level could trigger further buying, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average around $4,605 as the next logical target. This strategy offers a defined-risk way to profit if tensions continue to drive this haven buying spree. This rally is supported by a multi-year trend of strong institutional demand that we’ve been watching. Central banks added a near-record 1,037 tonnes to their reserves in 2023 and continued to be net buyers through 2024, creating a solid long-term floor for the price. This underlying support means any dips caused by temporary de-escalation are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. As a hedge against the same fears, we can look at purchasing put options on equity index futures, as US stocks have already fallen to 7-month lows. The sharp drop in consumer sentiment to 53.3, combined with renewed inflation fears, suggests further downside for the stock market. This provides a way to directly profit from the risk-off sentiment gripping the financial world. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a significant development that directly impacts energy prices and, by extension, inflation expectations. We can use options to trade the high volatility in crude oil, with WTI already surging nearly 5% to $98.33. Buying straddles on oil would allow us to profit from a large price swing in either direction, which is likely given the uncertainty. We saw a similar market reaction during the early stages of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, where commodity prices and haven assets soared together. The market remembers the inflation shock of the early 2020s and is reacting quickly to the jump in inflation expectations from 3.4% to 3.8%. This explains why money markets are suddenly pricing in a potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve, a shift from just a few weeks ago. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Four weeks into the Iran conflict, uncertainty remains high, and India is facing fallout linked to energy security, trade logistics, price stability, and external balances. The risks stem from dependence on imported energy and potential disruption to key shipping lanes. Even though oil intensity of GDP has been trending lower and the oil trade deficit is relatively contained, reliance on imported energy leaves India exposed if disruptions persist. Higher oil and gas prices can affect many consumer items, including electricity, plastics, fertilisers, and chemicals.

Shipping Lanes And External Balance Risks

The conflict raises route risks through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, adding to import and supplier concentration risks. These pressures can feed into the consumption basket and worsen external balances. The proposed policy approach is a calibrated fiscal and monetary mix, with the central bank treating inflation as transitory, ending the easing cycle, and keeping liquidity ample. The government is expected to use targeted fiscal measures, supported by an RBI dividend transfer, to limit price pass-through and support vulnerable households. Given the fresh uncertainty from the Iran conflict, volatility is the new reality. With Brent crude now trading above $95 a barrel, the India VIX has surged nearly 20% in March, making option strategies that profit from price swings, such as long straddles on the Nifty 50, a key consideration. We should anticipate heightened market choppiness in the weeks ahead. We must act on the reality that India imports over 85% of its crude oil, a fact that directly threatens the Rupee. This dependency will strain our current account deficit, likely pushing the USD/INR exchange rate higher. Traders should look at currency derivatives, using futures or call options on the USD/INR pair to hedge against or speculate on a weakening Rupee.

Inflation Rates And Sector Positioning

The resulting inflation is a major concern, as higher energy costs feed into everything. However, we anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will see this as a temporary supply-side shock, holding off on interest rate hikes to support growth. This suggests that the pressure on rate-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate might be less severe than in previous inflationary cycles. This situation creates clear sector-specific opportunities. Industries with high oil input costs, such as airlines, paints, and chemicals, will face severe margin compression, making put options on their stocks a logical play. Conversely, domestic energy producers may see a short-term benefit from higher realisation prices. Looking at the broader market, the Nifty 50 index faces significant headwinds. We saw a similar pattern during the energy price spike of 2022, which led to a notable market correction and foreign capital outflows. Using index derivatives, such as buying Nifty put options, offers a direct way to protect portfolios against a potential downturn. The government will likely use fiscal tools, such as fuel tax cuts or direct subsidies, to cushion the impact on consumers. This could provide temporary support to consumer discretionary and staple stocks. However, we see this as a short-term measure that does not resolve the underlying macroeconomic pressure from elevated energy prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/USD fell for a fourth day on Friday, trading near 0.6866 and hitting fresh two-month lows. The US dollar stayed firm amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 100.19 and was set to end the week up by over 0.50%. AUD/USD was heading for a weekly drop of over 2%, its steepest fall since October 2025.

Technical Breakdown Below Key Levels

AUD/USD turned bearish after breaking below 0.7000, near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7015. It also moved under the support area around 0.6900, which now acts as resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped towards 37, showing weaker momentum but not oversold conditions. The MACD stayed below its signal line and moved further into negative territory, with a slightly larger negative histogram. Support sits near the 100-day SMA around 0.6815. A daily close below 0.6815 could open a move towards 0.6700. A recovery would need a move back above 0.6900. Further strength would require a break above the 100-day SMA near the 0.7000 level.

Bearish Outlook Deepens Into 2026

The bearish outlook we noted for the AUD/USD back in late 2025 has intensified, with the pair now trading near 0.6650. The sustained US Dollar strength, which was a key factor then, has been further fueled by recent non-farm payroll data from February 2026 that beat expectations, showing an addition of 215,000 jobs. This trend reinforces the view that downside risks are building. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically recent escalations around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to drive safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. At the same time, the Australian dollar is facing its own headwinds from softening domestic data. Australia’s latest inflation print came in at 2.8%, raising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may consider easing policy later this year. This divergence in economic outlook makes bearish derivative strategies attractive in the coming weeks. We are seeing increased demand for put options with strike prices below 0.6600, as the AUD/USD 1-month implied volatility has risen to 11.5%, reflecting growing uncertainty. Traders could consider buying puts to speculate on further declines or selling out-of-the-money call spreads to capitalize on a capped upside. Fundamentally, the picture is further clouded by commodity prices, with iron ore recently dipping below $100 per tonne, placing additional pressure on the Aussie. From a technical standpoint, the support levels mentioned in late 2025 have now become significant resistance. The 0.6815 level, once seen as support, is now a distant ceiling that is unlikely to be tested without a major shift in market sentiment. For now, the path of least resistance appears to be lower. The psychological mark of 0.6700 was broken decisively last month and now acts as immediate resistance for any minor pullback. Any failure to reclaim this level would likely embolden sellers to target the 0.6500 handle in the next several weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The British Pound stayed steady in the North American session on Friday and remained above 1.3300 against the US Dollar. It was set to end the week down 0.20%. Market caution linked to an energy shock tied to conflict in the Middle East supported demand for the US Dollar. GBP/USD was also on track for monthly losses of more than 1%.

Middle East Tensions And Dollar Demand

Looking back to 2025, we recall the pressure on GBP/USD due to Middle East tensions and the resulting rush to the safe-haven US Dollar. That period saw the pair struggle to hold key levels like 1.3300 as risk aversion dominated markets. This sentiment cemented a trend of dollar strength that has largely continued. Today, the pair is trading significantly lower, near 1.2850, as the economic divergence between the US and the UK has become more pronounced. We see the US economy demonstrating resilience while the UK continues to face headwinds. This divergence is the central theme for positioning in the coming weeks. Recent UK inflation data showed the headline rate still stubbornly high at 3.1%, and the Bank of England held interest rates steady again last week. Their cautious tone suggests they are in no hurry to provide stimulus, which could continue to weigh on the Pound. This environment makes us wary of any significant, sustained rallies for the Sterling. Conversely, the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report from early March showed a robust addition of 265,000 jobs, beating expectations. This strength gives the Federal Reserve flexibility and reinforces the dollar’s appeal based on strong economic fundamentals. We anticipate this dynamic will keep a floor under the US Dollar against its major peers.

Options Strategies For GBP USD

For traders, this suggests that buying put options on GBP/USD with a strike price around 1.2750 could be a prudent move. This strategy allows for profiting from a further decline in the pound while strictly limiting the potential loss to the premium paid. It is a defined-risk way to express a bearish view on the pair. We are also seeing an uptick in one-month implied volatility, now hovering around 8.5%, up from 6% at the start of the year. This indicates the market is pricing in larger price swings, likely ahead of upcoming central bank announcements in April. For those less certain of direction, volatility-based strategies like long straddles could be considered. However, should UK economic data unexpectedly improve, we could see a sharp reversal. To position for this lower probability outcome, purchasing out-of-the-money call options with a 1.3000 strike offers a cheap way to capture potential upside. This acts as a hedge against a sudden shift in market sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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South Korea’s March exports are expected to stay in double-digit growth and pick up from January to February. Drivers include demand linked to AI and data centre infrastructure, higher memory chip prices, and supply shortages. Faster import growth is expected due to higher oil and LNG costs. Even so, the trade surplus is forecast to widen in March.

Inflation Outlook And Policy Backdrop

Consumer price inflation is projected to remain above the 2% level and rise to about 2.3% year on year in March. This is linked to higher global energy prices and a weaker KRW. The government has set out steps aimed at stabilising prices and reducing the impact of the Iran conflict. These include fuel price caps, releasing reserves, energy-saving campaigns, and a KRW 25 trillion supplementary budget. Given the outlook, we should position for continued strength in the South Korean technology sector. Robust export growth, driven by AI and memory chips, suggests call options on major semiconductor stocks or the KOSPI 200 index could be profitable. We saw a similar setup in late 2025 when semiconductor exports surged over 40% year-on-year, providing a strong tailwind for the market. The Korean won presents a more complex picture, creating opportunities for currency traders. While a widening trade surplus is typically bullish for the won, high energy import costs and geopolitical risks are exerting downward pressure, keeping the USD/KRW volatile, likely in the 1370-1420 range. This suggests strategies like selling strangles on the USD/KRW pair could be effective if we expect it to remain range-bound despite the noise.

Rates Currency And Risk Positioning

With inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target, the prospect of an imminent interest rate cut is low. This implies that bond futures may face headwinds in the coming weeks. We should remember the persistent inflation we dealt with back in early 2024, which kept the Bank of Korea on hold longer than many anticipated. The government’s significant fiscal stimulus, including the KRW 25 trillion budget, is designed to support the domestic economy while it manages inflation with price caps. This dual approach could buffer certain domestic consumer-facing sectors from the full impact of higher rates. This may create relative value trades, favouring domestic stocks over more rate-sensitive sectors. The ongoing conflict in Iran remains a major source of market volatility, directly impacting oil prices and risk sentiment. This elevated uncertainty makes buying protection, such as out-of-the-money put options on the KOSPI, a prudent move to hedge existing long positions. The recent spike in the VKOSPI, South Korea’s volatility index, from below 15 to over 20 in the last month underscores the market’s anxiety. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Dow fell about 510 points, or 1.1%, below 45,500 and moved into correction territory. The S&P 500 dropped about 1% and was more than 8% down from its record, while the Nasdaq lost 1.3% after entering a correction the day before. The fall marked a fifth straight weekly decline, the longest losing run since 2022. Markets reacted to disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced expectations of near-term diplomacy with Iran.

Strait Of Hormuz Escalation

Iran’s IRGC said the strait was effectively closed and warned of a harsh response to any shipping. Iranian state media said two Chinese-flagged vessels were turned away and a Thai-flagged cargo ship was struck and ran aground. Brent rose about 3% to above $110 a barrel and WTI climbed about 4% to near $100. The supply risk was described as the most tangible since the US-Iran conflict began on 28 February. Donald Trump extended a deadline to resume strikes on Iranian energy sites to 6 April. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran did not plan direct talks, and the Pentagon was reported to be weighing an extra 10K troops. UoM sentiment fell to 53.3 from 55.5, versus 54 expected, and expectations slid 8.7% to 51.7 versus 54.1. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8% from 3.4% (3.4% expected), while five-year held at 3.2%. OECD lifted its US 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% versus the Fed’s 2.7%. FedWatch showed a 52% chance of a rate rise by end-2026, with rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and the next decision due 29–30 April.

Rates And Inflation Repricing

Import prices rose 1.3% in February and gold traded near $4,400 an ounce. Meta fell 2.4% after an 8% drop, Alphabet lost 1.3%, Microsoft fell 2%, and Micron was down nearly 20% over five sessions. Chevron gained over 1%, while Verizon and Walmart edged up. The VIX rose above 27, up about 8%, with the March NFP report due on 3 April. Given the market’s entry into correction territory and the spike in the VIX to over 27, we should be buying protection against further downside. Purchasing put options on broad market indices like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for April expirations is a direct way to hedge portfolios. We saw the VIX surge past 35 during the geopolitical shock in early 2022, so with the April 6 deadline looming, there is precedent for volatility to climb even higher from here. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil consumption, makes long energy positions the most obvious tactical trade. With Brent crude already above $110, buying call options on oil futures or the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) allows us to profit from any further escalation or prolonged disruption. The current supply shock is tangible and presents a clearer upward path for energy prices compared to the uncertainty facing other sectors. The sharp rise in inflation expectations is forcing a major repricing of Federal Reserve policy, a situation we saw unfold rapidly in 2022 when CPI eventually hit a 40-year high of 9.1%. With the market now pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike by year-end, we can position for higher interest rates by purchasing puts on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). This trade benefits directly if the stagflation narrative continues to build, forcing the Fed to remain hawkish. Technology remains acutely vulnerable to rising rates, geopolitical tensions with China, and new regulatory and legal pressures. The recent weakness in names like Meta and Micron Technology looks set to continue, making bearish positions attractive. We should consider buying puts on the Nasdaq 100 or on specific semiconductor stocks, which are facing headwinds from both trade disputes and disruptive new AI efficiencies that could curb demand. Amid the broad sell-off, we are seeing a classic rotation into defensive sectors and energy, which should guide our stock-specific strategies. While we favor call options on energy leaders like Chevron, we can also use options on consumer staples and utility ETFs to position for continued risk-aversion. Selling out-of-the-money put options on stable companies like Walmart or Verizon could also be a way to generate income, assuming we are willing to own these defensive names at lower prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD fell for a fourth day, trading near 0.5750 on Friday and down 0.17%. The move followed renewed risk aversion and a firm US Dollar. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported demand for the US Dollar. US President Donald Trump paused planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for ten days, while Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Drivers

Higher US yields also supported the US Dollar, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.45%. Energy concerns added to inflation worries. US data was mixed as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3 in March from 55.5. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8%. Federal Reserve officials kept a cautious stance on inflation risks and policy. They referred to the potential effects of energy price shocks on inflation expectations. In New Zealand, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 91.3 in March from 100.1 in February. The decline added pressure to the New Zealand Dollar.

Trading Considerations

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said the bank may look through temporary energy-driven inflation. She also said rates could rise if inflation expectations become unanchored. We are seeing a familiar pattern in NZD/USD, with the pair testing lower levels amidst rising geopolitical tensions, this time in the South China Sea. This mirrors the situation back in 2025 when Middle East conflicts drove a similar flight to safety. The US Dollar is once again the primary beneficiary of this risk-off sentiment. The US Dollar’s strength is underpinned by firm Treasury yields, with the 10-year note holding around 4.35%. Recent data shows a resilient economy, as the latest CPI report came in hotter than expected at 0.4% month-over-month, overshadowing a slightly softer Non-Farm Payrolls number of 175,000. This reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve will delay any potential rate cuts, supporting the dollar. In New Zealand, the domestic picture is deteriorating, as evidenced by the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index which fell to 88.5. This weakness complicates the task for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is holding its Official Cash Rate at 5.50%. The market is now pricing out any rate cuts for 2026 as the RBNZ battles imported inflation from a weaker currency. Given the bearish outlook for NZD/USD, traders could consider buying put options to position for further downside while capping their maximum loss. Selling call options or establishing a bear call spread could also be viable strategies to collect premium, betting that the pair will not rise significantly in the coming weeks. Implied volatility has ticked up to 9.2% for one-month options, suggesting that option sellers are getting better compensation for the risks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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ING reported that higher oil prices and supply disruption risks are weakening growth, pushing up inflation, and worsening the Philippines’ external balances. It said tighter monetary policy on its own is unlikely to alter the peso’s path against the US dollar in the coming months. The report said the oil shock led the Philippines to declare a national emergency amid crude shortages and rising pump prices. It said this raised downside risks to growth and led to a growth forecast cut.

Oil Shock Rekindles Policy Dilemma

It noted Brent crude rose about 40% month on month in March. It said this makes headline inflation likely to exceed the target band under its base case. ING said CPI could pass 4% as early as March. It said this increases the chance of a BSP rate rise as early as April. Under a base case where the current conflict eases soon, it said the BSP may keep rates unchanged in April. Under a longer-war scenario with oil above $100 per barrel, it said the BSP may consider an April rise. The report said these conditions raise depreciation risk for the peso. It also cited BSP guidance that it is not targeting a specific exchange-rate level and that FX intervention remains modest.

Trading Playbook For Volatile Markets

The current oil shock, with Brent crude surging 25% this quarter to nearly $95 a barrel, is creating a familiar policy dilemma. This environment mirrors the pressures we saw back in 2025 when a similar energy spike threatened growth. For traders, this historical parallel provides a clear playbook for the weeks ahead. Higher energy costs are already pushing inflation past the official target, with the February 2026 consumer price index hitting 4.8% for the second consecutive month above the 4% ceiling. This raises the probability of an early rate hike by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. We see value in positioning for this by paying the fixed leg on Philippine interest rate swaps. This inflation and the country’s high import bill are putting significant pressure on the currency. The Philippine peso has already slid to 59.50 against the dollar, revisiting the lows from the 2025 turmoil. Given that the central bank appears comfortable with gradual depreciation, buying U.S. dollar calls against the peso is a prudent strategy to hedge against further weakness. The central bank’s difficult choice between supporting a weaker economy and fighting inflation is increasing market uncertainty. This tension is reflected in rising implied volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Therefore, strategies that benefit from large price swings, such as long straddles on the USD/PHP pair, should be considered. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US oil rigs fell to 409. The previous count was 414. The US oil rig count has fallen to 409, a drop of five rigs from the previous week. This suggests a potential slowdown in future American oil production. We should interpret this as a bullish signal for crude oil prices over the next two to three months.

Rig Count Decline Signals Tighter Supply

This decline continues the trend of capital discipline we saw from shale producers throughout 2025, when the rig count first stalled below the 450 mark. Producers are clearly prioritizing profitability over aggressive expansion. This sustained reduction in drilling activity strengthens the argument for tighter domestic supply later this year. This news lands as current inventories are already shrinking. The latest report from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels, surprising the market which had expected a small build. This marks the second consecutive weekly inventory draw, reinforcing the view that demand is robust. Globally, the supply picture is also supportive, as OPEC+ has signaled it will maintain its current production quotas through the second quarter. With little chance of a surprise supply increase from the group, the path is clearer for prices to move higher. This coordinated supply management reduces a major downside risk for oil. Therefore, we should consider buying call options on front-month WTI futures contracts to position for a potential price increase. Implied volatility is currently hovering around 34%, which is not excessively high and makes purchasing premium a viable strategy. Bull call spreads could also be used to lower the cost of entry and define risk.

Demand Trends Support Higher Prices

On the demand side, recent data shows global travel nearing pre-pandemic highs, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. This provides a solid fundamental floor for consumption. We are watching for any signs of economic slowdown, but the current data supports a constructive outlook for energy demand. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Standard Chartered said Banxico’s surprise 25 bps rate cut, and guidance for another easing step, has raised downside risks for the Mexican peso (MXN). The bank also pointed to crowded MXN long positioning and a reduced carry advantage versus other emerging market high-yield currencies. It said USD/MXN may serve as a hedge for emerging market risk, with potential for larger moves if Middle East conflict escalates. It also said positioning is crowded, including among CTAs and longer-term holders. The bank said MXN’s carry advantage has narrowed, while Banxico has signalled another cut and appeared willing to tolerate inflation pass-through from FX weakness. It added that weaker domestic growth momentum supports the case for short MXN positions. It said the balance of risks points to more rate cuts, with growth affected by uncertainty around renegotiation of the USMCA trade deal. It added that rising inflation may limit the scope for further easing. Looking back at Banxico’s surprise 25 basis point cut in 2025, we saw the beginning of a clear policy pivot. This move, and the guidance that followed, signaled a new tolerance for peso weakness to support a flagging economy. Consequently, downside risks for the Mexican Peso have grown, making short positions through derivatives look increasingly viable. We believe that long MXN positioning remains crowded, a hangover from the profitable carry trade of previous years. The latest CFTC data from the week ending March 24, 2026, shows that while speculative net longs have dipped, they remain historically elevated. This leaves the currency vulnerable to a sharp sell-off if sentiment sours further. The peso’s carry advantage has also narrowed against peers like the Brazilian Real, making it a less compelling hold. With Banxico signaling it is willing to look through inflation concerns to focus on growth, the path of least resistance is for lower rates. This view is reinforced by recent data confirming Q4 2025 GDP growth was a sluggish 1.2%, with little sign of a rebound. Given this, we see buying USD/MXN calls as an attractive way to position for peso weakness, especially as a hedge against global risk. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude back over $85 a barrel, and any further escalation would likely trigger a flight to the safety of the US dollar. Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing USMCA trade renegotiations also adds to the bearish outlook for the peso. That said, we must watch the inflation data, which has remained sticky. The latest report for February showed headline inflation running at 4.7%, which is still well above the central bank’s target. This persistence may constrain how much more Banxico can cut rates this year, potentially limiting the pace of the peso’s decline.

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