Trafigura Group, a commodities trader based in Singapore, has identified U.S. foreign policy towards Iran as a major risk influencing crude prices. Ben Luckock, the head of oil trading, noted that Iran’s oil exports have increased, while the uncertainty surrounding potential political changes in the U.S. could create market volatility.

Global oil supply remains stable, potentially mitigating disruptions. Luckock also indicated that the U.S. might resume Russian oil imports ahead of Europe if a resolution regarding Ukraine is achieved. The emergence of a shadow fleet of around 1,000 tankers transporting oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela is an important factor in global oil supply dynamics.

Ben’s assessment of geopolitical risks highlights the weight that U.S. policy decisions carry in shaping market conditions. The increase in Iranian oil exports suggests a more lenient approach for the time being, but there is no assurance that this will continue. A shift in leadership in Washington later this year could trigger tighter restrictions, possibly cutting off some of this supply and leading to price fluctuations. Traders will need to stay alert to any signals out of the U.S. regarding sanctions or diplomatic efforts, as even minor developments could alter expectations.

Supply stability provides a degree of offset against unexpected disruptions. Even so, the reliance on unsanctioned shipments via a growing fleet of unregistered tankers introduces additional unpredictability. These vessels, moving oil from countries facing sanctions, enable flows that might otherwise be constrained. However, any tightening of enforcement measures by Western governments could create friction, either by limiting available transport capacity or by adding further compliance risks for buyers.

If tensions in Ukraine ease, the possibility that Washington could reverse restrictions on Russian oil imports ahead of similar action from European nations presents another variable. The timing of such policy shifts will be key, especially in relation to broader diplomatic discussions. The market may begin to price in expectations before an official decision is made, leading to movements in futures contracts as participants adjust their exposure accordingly.

At the same time, the presence of a vast fleet operating outside standard regulatory frameworks poses questions about long-term supply chains. With around 1,000 vessels engaged in these trades, a considerable volume of oil is circumventing traditional tracking mechanisms. Any crackdown on these operations could disrupt availability, adding another source of uncertainty.

Keeping track of policy announcements, enforcement actions, and shipping activity will be necessary to gauge market movements in the weeks ahead. Shifts in supply chains could emerge suddenly, especially if there are stricter controls on the movement of oil from sanctioned nations. Anticipating these adjustments will require close attention to government actions and trading patterns.

The S&P 500 has increased by only 2% and the Nasdaq has remained stable this year, leading many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to perform similarly. Index ETFs typically mirror broad indexes, which have underperformed recently.

As index returns are projected to be lower than in previous years, there is potential value in actively managed ETFs. These funds are overseen by professional managers who select individual stocks.

The Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) has yielded approximately 11.4% year-to-date, outperforming major benchmarks. With an expense ratio of 0.64%, it comprises 214 stocks, including Moneta Bank, the First American Treasury Obligations Fund, and Komercni Banka.

The T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS) focuses on non-US stocks, predominantly in developed markets. It has returned 9.8% so far this year, with a 0.50% expense ratio and holdings such as ASML Holding, Rolls Royce, and AstraZeneca.

Managed by Cathie Wood, the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) targets stocks involved in fintech. It is up 6% year-to-date and has seen a 44% increase over the past year. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.75% and includes stocks like Shopify, Coinbase Global, and Robinhood.

When we look at what has happened so far this year, one thing is clear—broad market indices have not had the kind of momentum that many investors might have hoped for. The S&P 500 has crept up by just 2%, while the Nasdaq has barely moved at all. This is reflected in many exchange-traded funds that track these indices since they are designed to follow their performance closely. When these benchmarks slow down, so do funds that mirror them.

This raises an important question for traders—should they continue to rely on passive, index-based ETFs, or consider actively managed funds where professional stock pickers make the decisions? The latter have demonstrated some promise, given that overall index returns are not keeping pace with past years.

Take the fund overseen by Meb Faber, for instance. So far this year, it has returned approximately 11.4%, far better than the largest market benchmarks. It holds more than 200 stocks, including banks from Europe and the US. While it comes with an expense ratio of 0.64%, traders may see this as a worthwhile cost if the performance gap remains wide.

Then there’s the ETF run by T. Rowe Price, which chooses stocks outside the US, mainly in well-established economies. It has delivered a return of 9.8% this year, also outpacing broad index funds. With a fee of 0.50%, this fund includes major names like a semiconductor firm based in the Netherlands and a well-known UK aerospace company.

Meanwhile, Cathie’s fund continues to focus on fintech companies, and it has grown by 6% this year. But for those who have been holding onto it for longer, the past 12 months have been even stronger, with a 44% increase. Given its focus on financial technology firms, the stocks in this fund include a Canadian e-commerce giant, a well-known cryptocurrency exchange, and a trading platform that gained attention during the retail investing surge. While it carries an expense ratio of 0.75%, some may find that justified if the sector continues its upward trajectory.

For those trading derivatives, these trends are worth paying attention to. The past few months suggest that broad indices have not been the easiest way to capture gains, and actively managed strategies have, in some cases, delivered better outcomes. If this pattern persists, those positioning themselves in the weeks ahead might need to reconsider how they allocate trades. Whether the approach should lean towards stock picking or sector-based funds depends on how these strategies continue to play out.

The article outlines a trading strategy for buying Tesla (TSLA) stock within a specific price range of $280.19 to $284.88. The plan includes three buy orders, a stop loss set at $277.23, and a take profit target at $304.74, resulting in a risk-reward ratio of over 4.5.

The buy orders consist of 100 shares at $284.88, 200 at $283.77, and 300 at $280.19, culminating in 600 total shares for a full cost of $169,299. Partial profit-taking is planned at various price levels to secure gains while maintaining upside exposure. The strategy emphasises monitoring historical support zones and bullish order flow.

What this means is quite clear—entry into Tesla shares should happen gradually within the designated range, rather than all at once. By layering buy orders, the traders spreading their risk, ensuring that if the price drops further within the range, a better average cost is achieved.

The stop loss at $277.23 safeguards the position from excessive downside. If the price falls below this level, selling the shares prevents a deeper loss. With the total purchase amount being $169,299, such a protective measure ensures that losses remain contained if the trade does not work out.

On the other side, the goal is to sell at $304.74. If the price reaches this target, the reward is over 4.5 times the potential loss. That ratio is favourable. The approach incorporates partial profit-taking at intermediate levels, which allows gains to be secured before the stock moves through the full range. That prevents missing out if the price reverses before reaching the highest objective.

Much of this relies on historical data—the plan is based on past price action, where Tesla has shown support, and how it has behaved when buyers have stepped in previously. The presence of bullish order flow suggests that demand has been strong enough in the past to support higher prices.

For the coming weeks, staying aware of price action in relation to these levels is key. Placing orders too early could lead to paying more when further price movement allows for a better entry. Too much hesitation could mean missing the opportunity altogether. This also requires watching for behaviour near the stop loss—frequent approaches to that level could suggest weakness that might warrant reassessment.

With Tesla, volatility is always a given. That means a sharp move could fill buy orders quickly. On the other hand, if the stock climbs too fast, entry opportunities may not materialise. The balancing act is being patient while remaining prepared to act.

Gold prices in the Philippines decreased on Thursday. The price for gold per gram was PHP 5,400.44, down from PHP 5,430.83 the previous day.

The price for gold per tola fell to PHP 62,991.00 from PHP 63,344.18. Current gold prices are listed as follows: 1 Gram at PHP 5,400.44, 10 Grams at PHP 54,005.54, Tola at PHP 62,991.00, and Troy Ounce at PHP 167,973.80.

Various factors influence gold prices, including geopolitical tensions and interest rates. A strong US Dollar generally keeps gold prices lower, while a weaker Dollar can cause prices to rise.

Gold prices in the Philippines have slipped, with rates down from the previous day’s figures. A dip like this often catches the attention of traders who track precious metals closely. For those dealing in derivatives, these movements are more than just numbers—they mean adjusting positions and reassessing strategies.

With the gold price per gram sitting lower, it’s clear that outside pressures are influencing the market. Interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties often drive gold price fluctuations, but the role of the US Dollar is just as important. When the Dollar strengthens, gold tends to become less attractive, making it cheaper in other currencies. On the flip side, a weakening Dollar can push prices higher, as gold becomes a preferred safe-haven asset.

What stands out now is the US Dollar’s impact. If it continues to hold strong, gold prices may stay under pressure. However, if the Dollar starts to weaken due to policy changes or economic trends, we could see a rebound. Traders will be watching for any signs of shifting sentiment, particularly from central banks and policymakers.

Right now, looking at interest rate expectations will be just as useful as tracking gold price charts. If there’s any indication that rates might be adjusted, it could change the entire picture. Lower interest rates generally benefit gold, since non-yielding assets like gold become relatively more attractive compared to bonds or other interest-bearing investments.

For those trading derivatives, price swings like this call for a careful approach. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and gold often reacts quickly to news. Staying alert to global developments will be essential in the weeks ahead, especially as economic data continues to shape expectations.

Seeing gold prices take a hit in the Philippines might raise concerns for some, but for traders, it’s more about planning the next move rather than reacting to short-term shifts. If patterns emerge that suggest further declines or a possible bounce, traders will need to position themselves accordingly.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) manages the yuan’s daily midpoint, adhering to a floating exchange rate system. The yuan’s value can fluctuate within a range of +/- 2% around this reference rate.

The previous close for the yuan was 7.2580. Recently, the PBOC injected 215 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement, setting the rate at 1.5%.

Additionally, 125 billion yuan is maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan into the economy.

Authorities have opted to increase short-term liquidity, suggesting an effort to ensure ample cash flow in the financial system. The net injection of 90 billion yuan indicates that more funds have been made available than withdrawn, likely with the goal of maintaining stability as broader economic conditions develop. With the reverse repurchase rate holding steady at 1.5%, policymakers appear to be reinforcing their stance without making abrupt adjustments.

Meanwhile, the yuan’s previous close at 7.2580 places it near recent trading levels, meaning there have been no immediate signs of heavy intervention or unexpected volatility. The daily midpoint mechanism remains in place, allowing fluctuations within the ±2% band. If movements approach either extreme, traders will be watching closely for signals on whether authorities choose to step in.

Liquidity injections of this scale often reflect short-term needs rather than long-term shifts. The decision to introduce additional cash into the system could be in response to seasonal demand, upcoming bond settlements, or broader policy adjustments. As a result, it will be necessary to observe upcoming liquidity operations and any changes in guidance from policymakers.

Beyond immediate funding conditions, external factors such as global rate policies and trade dynamics remain in the background. These can influence sentiment and potentially affect how local conditions unfold. While monetary authorities have provided some clarity through recent actions, traders must remain aware of potential fluctuations stemming from external pressures.

Gold prices decreased in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, with the cost at 342.63 AED per gram, down from 344.37 AED on Wednesday. Tola prices also fell to 3,996.43 AED from 4,016.62 AED.

The prices for gold in various units are as follows: 1 gram at 342.63 AED, 10 grams at 3,426.37 AED, and a troy ounce at 10,657.14 AED. Local rates can vary slightly, as prices are based on international rates and updated daily.

Central banks remain the largest holders of gold, adding 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022. Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty and as a hedge against inflation.

Various factors, such as geopolitical events and changes in interest rates, can impact gold prices. The relationship between gold and the US Dollar is particularly notable; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices.

What we are seeing here is a slight dip in gold prices across various weight measurements in the UAE. The cost for a gram of gold dropped by 1.74 AED within a day, and the price for a tola followed the same pattern, decreasing by just over 20 AED. This reflects the way global trading movements ripple into regional markets, which adjust their prices accordingly. Since the rates are tied to international benchmarks, minor fluctuations like this happen frequently.

Gold remains a key asset for central banks, with reserves growing steadily. The addition of 1,136 tonnes to global central bank reserves in 2022 makes it clear that institutional buyers continue to rely on gold for value storage. This level of accumulation, worth an estimated $70 billion, helps reinforce gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and a protective measure during uncertain economic periods.

What is particularly relevant for traders right now is how external factors influence pricing. Interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and inflation readings all play a role, but perhaps the most direct link is with the US Dollar. Since gold is primarily traded in dollars, any depreciation in the currency tends to push gold prices up, offering potential trading opportunities. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens, we could see prices tighten. Given the latest price movement, it’s worth monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, as any shift in interest rate expectations could nudge prices in either direction.

For those trading derivatives based on gold, keeping a close watch on currency movements could be an effective strategy for the coming weeks. While day-to-day price changes are often small, broader trends can shape longer-term plays. If we see sustained pressure on the dollar, gold could regain some ground. If global interest rate policies remain restrictive, however, the price of gold might continue sliding. A well-balanced approach, with attention to macroeconomic signals, should serve traders well in the near term.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) notes that the Australian dollar (AUD) has encountered difficulties since the election of Donald Trump. Increased trade war risks from Trump are seen as factors affecting the AUD’s trajectory.

China is expected to influence the AUD’s outlook, particularly in response to trade threats. The annual session of China’s National People’s Congress is set to begin, with anticipated government spending aimed at countering the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.

A larger-than-expected stimulus in China may have a positive effect on the AUD, New Zealand dollar (NZD), and Chinese yuan (CNH).

We note that the Australian dollar has struggled since Donald Trump’s election, largely due to market concerns about trade disputes. His stance on tariffs and potential trade restrictions has introduced uncertainty, which tends to weigh on currencies like the AUD.

China remains a key factor in shaping where the AUD trades next. With the upcoming National People’s Congress, all eyes will be on how much Beijing plans to inject into its economy. More government spending could help cushion the negative effects of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports. If policymakers in Beijing decide to introduce broader stimulus measures, this could lend support to not only the AUD but also the NZD and CNH.

Timing is everything. If the stimulus package exceeds expectations, the market reaction is likely to be swift. Traders will be looking at how these funds are deployed—whether through infrastructure projects, tax cuts, or other economic initiatives. A more aggressive approach from Beijing could boost confidence in the region’s financial markets.

On the other hand, if spending measures fall short, concerns around weaker Chinese economic activity could drag down the AUD. A muted response from policymakers would likely reinforce broader fears about slowing global trade, which tends to push investors toward safer currencies.

At the same time, it’s necessary to consider how the U.S. dollar reacts. If Washington escalates trade threats, the USD could strengthen, creating additional pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Any indications of policy shifts—from either side—could lead to sharp price swings.

Markets are also weighing other factors. Interest rate expectations in Australia and the U.S. will continue to shape currency movements. If the Reserve Bank of Australia signals a softer stance while the Federal Reserve leans in the opposite direction, the outcome could further disadvantage the AUD.

Monitoring these developments closely is essential. While China’s response will play an influential role in the next move for these currencies, external factors remain equally important. Traders should be prepared for sudden movements in either direction, depending on how authorities in both Washington and Beijing choose to proceed.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices remain low, around $68.70 per barrel, following expectations of increased supply. The recent announcements about a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and easing sanctions on Russia are contributing to this downward trend.

Economic concerns, particularly regarding tariffs imposed by the US, have further diminished demand. In related news, President Trump plans to revoke Chevron Corp.’s oil license in Venezuela, a move that has drawn criticism from Venezuelan officials.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan regional government has announced it will resume crude exports, pending approval from Turkey. This agreement follows a ruling from the International Chamber of Commerce regarding past unauthorized exports.

The current market has been marked by falling oil prices, primarily as traders react to expectations of more supply. A potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine has prompted speculation that restrictions could be lifted, allowing more barrels to flow into the market. Similarly, discussions surrounding sanctions suggest the possibility of fewer constraints on Russia’s energy sector. As a result, those holding positions tied to oil prices might need to reconsider their strategies. Lower prices often lead to shifts in positioning, especially for those exposed to futures contracts.

Recent economic developments in the United States have also played a role in dampening demand. Trade policies, particularly tariffs, have altered market sentiment, leading to reduced confidence in energy consumption patterns. When economic uncertainty grows, investors tend to reassess their holdings, and we are already seeing caution reflected in oil derivative markets. If these concerns persist, they could weigh on prices even further, reinforcing the recent downward move.

Elsewhere, decisions involving Venezuela have added another layer of geopolitical influence. Donald’s administration is aiming to tighten its stance, with Chevron now at risk of losing its operational privileges in the region. Venezuelan officials have not welcomed this decision, and there is potential for retaliation or counteractions that could impact oil flows. For traders, such shifts in policy create potential volatility, particularly for those engaged in contracts tied to companies operating in the region.

At the same time, developments involving the Kurdish government could inject new volumes into global markets. A resumption of crude exports is now in motion, awaiting a final decision from the Turkish authorities. This follows legal arbitration concerning past shipments without approval. The potential increase in exports comes as other forces are already driving oil prices lower, and if additional cargoes emerge from this region, it could amplify the pressure on prices even more.

For traders navigating the oil derivatives market, the coming weeks present a period where supply expectations and geopolitical manoeuvres will continue to affect price movements. Those with exposure to futures, options, and other oil-linked products may need to weigh the impact of these shifting dynamics carefully. With multiple regions contributing to the current trend, assessing how these changes interact will be essential for managing risk and identifying new opportunities.

Seven & I has confirmed that it has not received financing from Junro Ito, vice president of 7&i and Ito-Kogyo Co., Ltd., preventing a definitive acquisition proposal from being submitted.

The company is actively considering options to enhance shareholder value and is reviewing various strategic alternatives, including a proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT).

A special committee is working with ACT to explore if a feasible proposal can be formulated amidst serious U.S. antitrust challenges.

Currently, there is no actionable proposal from Junro Ito or Ito-Kogyo for Seven & I to evaluate.

Reports indicate that Seven & I plans to abandon management buyout efforts after Itochu’s withdrawal.

Seven & I’s confirmation regarding the absence of financing from Junro adds a layer of certainty to the current situation. Without the necessary funds from him or the company he is associated with, a formal offer remains off the table for now. Meanwhile, discussions persist about various strategies to boost shareholder returns, with one proposal in particular standing out—the one presented by ACT.

The move to assess ACT’s idea comes with its own set of difficulties. A team has been assigned to determine whether the proposed plan can move forward despite regulatory issues in the U.S. While their collaboration suggests a willingness to find a path forward, the reality of the situation means that multiple roadblocks remain. Antitrust concerns can be lengthy and difficult to navigate, making the entire process uncertain. Still, the fact that the conversation continues implies that alternatives are still being weighed.

With nothing formally presented by Junro or Ito-Kogyo, Seven & I is left to focus on its remaining choices. The indication that efforts to pursue a management buyout are being set aside, following Itochu’s exit, suggests that internal solutions may no longer be viable. That development not only reshapes expectations but also shifts attention back to external proposals, such as the one from ACT.

For those tracking the developments closely, understanding the risks tied to potential regulatory delays is just as important as recognising the lack of competition in viable bids. Taken together, these factors shape the short-term outlook as Seven & I moves through this period of continued assessment and negotiation.

The NZD/USD pair is trading around 0.5695 as concerns about US tariffs impact the New Zealand dollar. Traders are awaiting the preliminary GDP reading for Q4, expected later today.

Tariff issues, particularly those related to China, could weaken the NZD further, given China’s role as a major trading partner. Additionally, anticipated rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may exacerbate the NZD’s decline.

Conversely, a decline in the US dollar, prompted by weaker economic data, may reduce losses for the pair. US consumer confidence fell to 98.3 in February, down from 105.3 in August 2021.

At present, the New Zealand dollar sits near 0.5695 against the US dollar, with traders keeping a close eye on tariff developments and upcoming economic data. These factors will shape the currency’s trajectory over the coming days, offering both risks and potential short-term opportunities.

Concerns surrounding US trade policies, particularly those affecting China, continue to weigh on the currency. Given China’s position as a primary export destination, any disruption in trade flows would dampen sentiment further. Meanwhile, expectations of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank appear to be driving a more cautious approach. A less attractive yield outlook makes the currency less desirable for investors, potentially leading to further weakness.

On the other side, the US dollar’s recent struggles could provide some relief. Consumer confidence has been sliding, suggesting that economic momentum in the US may be waning. A reading of 98.3 in February, down from 105.3 in August 2021, indicates that American households are becoming more wary of future conditions. If this pattern continues, markets could begin pricing in more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve in response, weighing on the dollar.

Looking ahead, traders should pay close attention to any shifts in global trade sentiment and policy signals from central banks. Today’s preliminary GDP data for New Zealand has the potential to shake things up. A stronger-than-expected figure might temporarily lift the currency, but concerns surrounding future monetary policy will likely keep enthusiasm in check. Likewise, any indication that the US economy is slowing faster than anticipated could trigger downside pressure on the dollar.

For those navigating the derivative space, these developments call for adaptability. Short-term fluctuations may present tactical trading opportunities, but the broader narrative remains tied to central bank actions and economic releases. Staying ahead of these factors will be key in managing exposure effectively.