US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed commitment to collaborating with Congress to ensure the permanence of tax reductions introduced during Trump’s administration. This effort aims to maintain the benefits of these tax cuts over the long term.

Janet’s pledge to work with lawmakers reflects a broader effort to sustain the tax cuts first introduced under Donald’s leadership. These reductions, which were originally designed to expire, have been a point of debate since their enactment. Some view them as essential for business growth and household finances, while others argue they strain government revenue. By signalling a willingness to push for their extension, she is setting expectations for upcoming negotiations.

The certainty of a stable tax policy affects more than just financial planning—it has an impact on a range of markets. Investors who base their decisions on future corporate earnings or disposable income levels are paying close attention. If these reductions are made permanent, businesses may hold onto expectations of lower tax liabilities, which could shape capital allocation and hiring plans. Households, too, would have more clarity regarding their after-tax earnings, with potential implications for spending patterns.

Market participants with exposure to rate-sensitive assets should also account for how tax policy interacts with government borrowing. Lower tax revenue without a matching reduction in spending generally leads to an expanded budget deficit. This means more Treasury issuance is likely over time, affecting supply-demand balances in the bond market. Interest rate expectations are tightly connected to this, which, in turn, can shift the pricing of financial instruments tied to future yields.

With Janet reinforcing this policy stance, traders need to consider both direct and indirect outcomes. The positioning of major funds could adjust in response, particularly in sectors influenced by corporate margins and consumer demand. Short-term fluctuations might emerge as different scenarios unfold in public discourse, but the broader issue extends beyond immediate price action. What matters is how expectations set by policymakers translate into tangible legislative steps.

As these discussions progress, attention should remain on shifts in rhetoric from key congressional figures who play a deciding role in any extension efforts. The gap between political statements and executable policy will determine how strong an influence this has on financial markets. Any shift in likelihood regarding legislative success will likely be reflected in how investors adjust exposures across multiple asset classes.

DraftKings, Inc. (DKNG) is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company that offers online sports betting, casinos, daily fantasy sports, and product offerings in retail sports betting and media. Its operations are divided into Business-to-Consumer (B2C) and Business-to-Business (B2B) segments.

Recently, DKNG’s stock saw a wave II pullback, reaching a low of $28.69. Following this, it climbed to a high of $45.87, experienced another pullback to $35.96, and is now targeting an upward movement towards $68.52 to $77.94, supported by dips holding above $35.96 and $28.69.

In a broader context, a super cycle wave (I) peaked at $74.38, followed by a three-wave pullback that completed wave (II) at $9.78. A five-wave rally concluded cycle degree wave I at $49.57 before another seven-swing pullback led to the $28.69 low. Stability above $35.96 and $28.69 suggests potential for further upward momentum.

From what we’ve seen so far, the overall trend remains upwards following the pullback to $28.69. The recent increase to $45.87 before dropping again to $35.96 indicates a normal corrective phase within a larger upward movement. If price levels hold above these key support points, then we may see an extended push towards the higher target range of $68.52 to $77.94.

Looking at the bigger picture, the price action has followed a common five-wave push higher to $49.57, which is typically a sign of a strong uptrend. After this, there was a corrective phase that played out as a seven-swing move, pulling prices back to $28.69. As long as the market stays above this level and remains stable above $35.96 in the short term, the structure suggests that the larger uptrend is still in place.

For those who trade shorter time frames, it is important to watch how upcoming movements interact with these support levels. If the stock breaches $35.96 decisively, it could signal deeper consolidation before the next rise. Conversely, as long as pullbacks remain limited and corrections are contained, the next wave higher could take shape more quickly.

Wave analysis often helps traders time entries more efficiently. At this stage, the best opportunities may arise when price reacts positively at strong support zones, rather than chasing rapid rallies. Monitoring changes around $35.96 and $28.69 should give us clearer insight into whether momentum remains intact for a move towards the higher targets. This approach can help avoid entering at moments where risk outweighs the potential reward.

Although short-term fluctuations are always expected, the broader trend suggests a continuation higher unless key levels break. Keeping an eye on dips and waiting for confirmation from price action should provide traders with an edge in navigating the next few weeks.

Bitcoin’s value decreased on Wednesday, reaching lows below USD 83,000.

A previous analysis from Stan Chart indicated that prices in the low 80Ks would present a potential buying opportunity.

Current market conditions are being observed as traders assess whether this level has been reached.

This recent decline has caught the attention of market participants, many of whom had been watching for an opportunity to enter at lower levels. With Bitcoin briefly dipping below USD 83,000, those who follow technical indicators are revisiting their strategies. Some will see this drop as a natural pullback after recent highs, while others may be more cautious, awaiting further confirmation before making a move.

Earlier analysis from Geoff at Stan Chart suggested that prices in the low 80Ks could create conditions for renewed interest. Now that this price range has been tested, eyes are on whether demand strengthens or weakness persists. Historical behaviour suggests that areas flagged as potential buy zones often experience an uptick in activity, but this is not always immediate. Short-term fluctuations may continue as sentiment adjusts.

We are also considering how broader conditions could influence what happens next. Macro factors, such as central bank policies and liquidity flows, remain in the background, shaping overall risk appetite. Meanwhile, funding rates and positioning provide additional clues about whether traders are leaning towards another upward push or preparing for a deeper correction. Spot and derivatives traders alike will be weighing these elements as they decide their next steps.

James at Glassnode has pointed out that leveraged positions remain elevated, which could add to volatility. Sharp moves in either direction may trigger forced liquidations, intensifying price swings. Those who trade futures and options will need to stay aware of these liquidation levels, as price movements towards heavily leveraged positions often accelerate market reactions. Such dynamics have repeatedly influenced Bitcoin’s price action, and this time is unlikely to be any different.

At the same time, long-term holders appear mostly unfazed. Data suggests that those who have held for extended periods are not making large adjustments. This steadiness could provide support if short-term selling pressure fades. However, if sentiment shifts and profit-taking increases, further declines cannot be ruled out. Watching how these different groups behave will be essential in understanding what comes next.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a price zone that was previously identified as a potential inflection point. Traders are now looking for confirmation—whether through buying activity, reduced selling pressure, or shifts in derivatives positioning—to gauge the next likely move. If further declines occur, additional levels will come into focus. If strength returns, attention will once again turn to resistance points from previous highs.

President Trump reiterated plans for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union on Wednesday. These tariffs aim to address US deficit spending through import taxes.

The implementation of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods has been postponed again, now scheduled to begin on 2nd April. Meanwhile, details regarding the tariffs on the EU will be provided soon.

The EU may respond to the tariffs, which include a 25% rate on automobiles and other products. Trump expressed that the US does not require Canadian lumber for its needs.

We have a situation unfolding that demands attention from those involved in derivatives tied to commodities and trade-sensitive industries. With the United States pushing forward with tariffs, there is potential for both opportunity and risk in pricing and market positioning.

Trump has made it clear that the US is determined to impose tax measures on imports, which means traders must take notice of what this could mean for raw material costs, corporate margins, and currency fluctuations. The latest delay on Canadian and Mexican goods gives a short window where markets may remain steady, but it would be unwise to assume this will last indefinitely. Any fresh development from Washington, especially in early April, could shift expectations quickly.

On the European side, we still lack details, though the mention of a 25% rate on automobiles cannot be ignored. If tariffs do materialise, producers in nations reliant on car exports will feel the pressure first—but reactions in steel, aluminium, and manufacturing supply chains will follow. That, in turn, may influence hedging decisions and volatility expectations in futures contracts related to both industrial metals and equity indices.

Trump’s comment about Canadian lumber is not just a remark—it highlights that markets connected to forestry and construction materials are not immune. If rhetoric turns into action, pricing for North American softwood contracts could face both heightened speculation and potential swings in demand.

As we move through the coming weeks, we should keep a close watch on official statements, as well as any retaliatory efforts from trading partners. Whether these decisions lead to direct countermeasures or negotiations, they will shape expectations and impact derivative pricing across multiple sectors.

Major US indices closed mixed on February 26, 2025. Nvidia is expected to announce earnings later, while Axios reported that Trump plans to continue tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week.

Deutsche Bank altered its longstanding bearish stance on the euro. Crude oil prices decreased by $0.31, settling at $68.62, and Bitcoin reached its lowest level since November 11.

The US sold 7-year notes at a rate of 4.194%, which was slightly below expectations. Fed’s Bostic mentioned ongoing high inflation, though some progress has been made on the issue.

Japan’s top FX diplomat observed no disparity in currency fluctuations, while the UK’s BOE’s Dhingra noted a decline in factors driving trade expansion. US crude oil inventory data showed a drawdown of -2332K against an expected build of 2605K. January’s new home sales came in at 657K, falling short of the anticipated 680K.

In the forex market, EURUSD has seen a ceiling between 1.0527 and 1.0532, with current prices near its 200-hour moving average of 1.0472. GBPUSD fluctuated around its 100-day moving average at 1.2847 and reached a peak of 1.2715 today. USDJPY is trading around 149.10, showing a potential short-term downside bias.

Overall, economic data was limited, yet notable trading activity in equities and currencies was observed, with developments anticipated in the near future.

Nvidia’s earnings report later today could inject momentum into equities, particularly tech stocks, after a mixed session across major US indices. Market participants will be attentive to guidance, as recent trading activity suggests high sensitivity to earnings surprises. Meanwhile, the Axios report regarding Trump’s planned extension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds another layer of uncertainty. The implications for trade-sensitive sectors could surface as early as next week, prompting adjustments in positioning.

Shifting to forex, the change in Deutsche Bank’s outlook on the euro breaks from its previous bearish view. That alone carries weight. If institutional sentiment tilts further towards the shared currency, retracement from recent lows isn’t out of the question, especially with EURUSD already showing resilience near key levels. Meanwhile, sterling remains locked near its 100-day moving average. With little in the way of fresh catalysts from the Bank of England today, short-term traders may continue using technical levels to guide positioning.

Energy markets reacted to today’s crude oil inventory data, which showed an unexpected drawdown against expectations. Prices pulled back slightly, settling at $68.62 per barrel. The divergence between forecasts and actual figures introduces further short-term volatility risks. Long positions had already been shaken by broader macroeconomic concerns, and unless fresh demand-side indications counterbalance today’s decline, bearish pressure may persist.

In fixed income, a weaker-than-expected auction for 7-year notes suggests ongoing hesitation among buyers. The awarded rate of 4.194% came in just below market expectations, reinforcing the theme of cautious sentiment towards duration risk. Raphael’s remarks on inflation add to that hesitancy. While he acknowledged progress, the persistence of high price levels means the Fed remains wary. That, in turn, feeds into rate expectations, keeping bond yields in focus.

Japan’s top FX official signalling no concerns over currency movements leaves room for Yen traders to focus more on technical and rate-differential factors. With the pair hovering near 149.10, momentum has been tilting lower, and unless a policy shift emerges from policymakers in Tokyo, downward excursions could continue. In contrast, GBPUSD’s intraday peak of 1.2715 reflects pockets of sterling demand. Still, sustained upward movement remains constrained by external macroeconomic pressures.

On the equities side, broad movement remained contained, largely due to limited economic releases. However, attention is set to shift towards Nvidia’s numbers shortly. Positioning ahead of the announcement suggests traders are anticipating volatility, particularly given the broader pullback in crypto markets, with Bitcoin slipping to its weakest level since November. Tech-heavy portfolios will need to be mindful of further risk shifts should any misalignment with expectations emerge.

Taken together, financial markets are responding in a measured yet reactive manner to today’s developments. Liquidity remains well-distributed across asset classes, though certain sectors are moving with more conviction. That balance may soon tilt, depending on upcoming corporate releases, shifting central bank rhetoric, and fresh economic figures in the days ahead.

Swati Dhingra from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee stated that central bank policies have limited effectiveness against trade-based supply shocks affecting prices. She emphasised that monetary measures alone cannot adequately manage price impacts in sectors like energy and food.

In a scenario where the world economy fragments cautiously, a response from monetary policy may not be necessary. The need for an independent monetary authority with a clear inflation target increases when external supply shocks are more common.

US tariffs are anticipated to strengthen the US Dollar, which could temporarily raise prices in the UK. However, the direct impact on UK inflation from US import costs and the stronger Dollar is likely to be neutralised by decreased global price pressures.

Swati’s comments bring attention to an issue we have observed over time: monetary tools do not work well when price changes are driven by supply disruptions rather than demand. Interest rate adjustments cannot create more oil or grain, so economic policymakers must focus on managing inflation expectations rather than attempting to directly offset cost increases in these areas.

If trade tensions cause world economies to separate but in a measured manner, sudden policy shifts might not be required. However, frequent supply disturbances make a clear inflation mandate even more valuable. When external shocks cannot be controlled through rate changes alone, investors should be mindful that inflation expectations could remain more volatile, impacting longer-term rate decisions.

With US import duties on the rise, the Dollar is expected to gain strength. This could push prices higher in Britain for a short period, particularly for goods priced in Dollars. However, broader inflation effects should balance out as reduced global demand weighs on input costs. For traders watching derivatives, this means positioning should account for near-term currency movements but also recognise that the longer-term inflation impact may not be as straightforward. Understanding where price changes come from helps in anticipating whether central banks will act—or if they will maintain their stance and wait for external pressures to ease.

The upcoming session features light data from New Zealand followed by data from Australia. The Australian capital expenditure figures will contribute to the fourth quarter GDP report, which is expected to be released next week on Wednesday, 5 March.

The next batch of data is relatively quiet at first, with only a few releases from New Zealand before things pick up in Australia. The capital expenditure report from Australia will be closely watched, as it feeds directly into the fourth-quarter GDP numbers. These figures, set to be published next Wednesday, 5 March, will provide a clearer view of how the economy performed in the final months of last year.

Markets are already positioning themselves for this release, as it will play a key role in shaping expectations for monetary policy. If investment spending has grown at a steady pace, it could suggest that businesses remain confident despite higher interest rates. On the other hand, a weak reading might raise concerns about economic momentum heading into the new year.

Beyond Australia, attention will gradually shift to broader themes that have been steering market sentiment in recent weeks. Inflation expectations remain an important factor, especially as traders weigh how central banks will interpret incoming data. Recent comments from policymakers suggest that they are staying cautious, particularly with wage growth and consumer demand still under review.

As the week unfolds, price movements will likely reflect shifting views on when and how interest rate adjustments could happen. Some traders are starting to reassess their positions ahead of next week’s key events, balancing short-term reactions with longer-term trends. Adjustments in expectations tend to unfold quickly, making it vital to react with both speed and precision.

With all this in mind, the lead-up to next Wednesday promises to be anything but dull.

EUR/USD is experiencing difficulties, retreating after failing to surpass the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a third time, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum. Sellers are regaining control, indicating a potential change in the overall trend.

Technical indicators show decreasing momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining while still in positive territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat, suggesting weak directional strength.

Attention is on the potential convergence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs, which may lead to a bearish crossover. A break below the 20-day SMA at approximately 1.0450 could heighten downside risks.

What we are observing is a weakening bullish push, as shown by the repeated inability to break past the 100-day SMA. When a key resistance level rejects price action multiple times, it usually indicates that buying pressure is diminishing, giving sellers more control. With support levels now in focus, traders should be paying close attention to whether the 20-day SMA holds or gives way.

Momentum indicators are not showing much strength in either direction. The RSI is moving lower, but it remains above the midpoint, meaning bearish pressure is increasing, though not overwhelmingly so. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram staying flat reflects a lack of enthusiasm from both bulls and bears. This often happens when markets struggle to find direction after an extended period of uncertainty.

One upcoming technical event that might influence decision-making is the possible crossover between the 100-day and 20-day SMAs. If the shorter-term moving average moves beneath the longer-term one, we would normally expect further downside pressure to gain traction. That is why the 1.0450 level carries weight; falling below it could see momentum shift firmly to the downside, potentially setting up a deeper pullback.

In the near term, traders should be attentive to whether selling pressure continues building or if buyers can regain control. If support holds, we might see another attempt to break higher, but for now, the evidence leans in favour of further losses. The market is hesitating, which often precedes a larger move, meaning quick adjustments to strategy might be required depending on how price developments unfold.

In January, Russia’s industrial output was reported at 2.2%, falling short of the anticipated 4.2%. This statistic suggests a weaker performance in the sector than forecasted.

Separate reports indicate that AUD/USD is consolidating around the 0.6300 mark, impacted by a softer Australian CPI and concerns over tariff plans. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains near its year-to-date low, struggling under firm expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.

Gold prices hold steady above $2,900 as trade tensions and economic uncertainties drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, a decline in meme tokens has been observed amid shifts in market focus.

European February inflation is expected to decrease sharply in France, while stability prevails in the wider Eurozone, despite ongoing price increases in services.

A weaker-than-expected industrial output figure for Russia at 2.2%, rather than the forecasted 4.2%, signals that production has not expanded as quickly as analysts had predicted. This could suggest subdued domestic demand or potential supply-side challenges. For those involved in the derivatives market, a shortfall of this nature often factors into currency movements and commodity pricing, particularly when gauging broader economic strength.

Looking elsewhere, the Australian dollar is currently moving sideways near 0.6300 against the US dollar, with traders keeping a close eye on inflation data and possible tariff-related adjustments. A softer CPI reading has tempered expectations for tighter monetary policy, leaving the currency without a clear directional push. Given this, those tracking price movements in the pair should remain attentive to any shifts in commodity prices, as Australia’s export-driven economy ties directly to those figures.

Meanwhile, the yen is lingering near its lowest levels so far this year as markets price in the likelihood of future interest rate hikes from Japan’s central bank. This has kept Japanese assets in focus, especially with traders anticipating that policy adjustments could alter market positioning. Any further reinforcement of these expectations could continue to weigh on the currency in the coming sessions.

Gold remains firmly above $2,900, buoyed by ongoing economic uncertainty and trade-related anxieties, which have reinforced its status as a preferred store of value. With volatility in equities and global trade risks still in play, its strength reflects prevailing investor caution. Any developments that heighten economic worries could provide further support, while a move in the opposite direction might suppress demand.

The downturn in meme-based tokens highlights shifting interests across digital markets. These assets, often driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals, have fallen out of favour lately, likely as liquidity seeks more sustainable opportunities. For traders navigating this space, understanding where capital is rotating remains key.

On the inflation front, a sharp decline is expected in France’s February reading, contrasting with a more stable picture across the broader Eurozone. Although services inflation remains elevated, overall price pressures are not seeing drastic moves. This relative steadiness suggests that while cost increases persist in specific areas, there is no immediate sign of runaway inflation across the region. Any deviation from these forecasts could prompt adjustments in interest rate expectations, particularly within European financial markets.

Nvidia reported a fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 89 cents, surpassing the expected 84 cents. Revenue for the quarter reached $39.33 billion, exceeding estimates of $38.25 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 73.5%, matching forecasts.

Data centre revenue totalled $35.6 billion, above the expected $34.09 billion. The company anticipates first-quarter revenue of approximately $43 billion, with an adjusted gross margin projected between 70.5% and 71.5%.

Gaming revenue was recorded at $2.5 billion, falling short of the estimated $3.02 billion. The networking segment generated $3.02 billion, less than the forecast of $3.51 billion.

That earnings beat was not a minor one. Profits outpaced analyst forecasts, and revenue followed suit. The adjusted gross margin did not disappoint—it aligned exactly with predictions. These figures paint a clear picture of where the company stands after the latest quarter. But the details matter more than just the overall numbers.

The data centre division, the core engine of the company’s expansion, delivered better-than-expected results. That division alone produced $35.6 billion, comfortably above the market’s anticipated $34.09 billion. It confirms what many already understood—growth in artificial intelligence remains relentless. The demand is not just steady, it is increasing at a rapid pace.

Looking ahead, leadership expects around $43 billion in revenue next quarter. If that materialises, it marks another leap forward. There is confidence in maintaining strong profitability as well, with gross margins projected between 70.5% and 71.5%. These forecasts are not built on optimism alone; they reflect sustained demand from clients who continue to invest in computing power at scale.

However, not every segment performed as well. Gaming revenue disappointed, landing at $2.5 billion when $3.02 billion was expected. The networking segment failed to meet forecasts, bringing in $3.02 billion rather than the projected $3.51 billion. Those areas did not see the same levels of demand growth, and that matters, even if they are not the main drivers anymore.

From this report, two things become clear. Some parts of the business remain strong, while others did not reach expectations. That contrast should not be ignored. In the coming weeks, markets will react in a way that rewards what is working and punishes what is not. It will not be a simple case of rising or falling in one direction. Some areas are thriving, some are lagging, and that division within the business should shape thinking going forward.