Behind the glitz of trading screens and market news lies a secret no one talks about: The mind game every trader has to play in order to win. While market participants obsess over charts and economic data, the real power player lurks in the shadows – trading psychology.

Think of it as the unseen puppeteer, pulling the strings on every move, from daring buys to panic-filled sells. It is the silent observer that can make or break fortunes, yet remains overlooked. Understanding this hidden force would be the game-changer between thriving in the markets as a day trader, or watching your dreams slip away.

The Emotional Rollercoaster: How It Impacts Trading

Imagine this: You have spent hours analysing a stock, believing that it is poised for a breakout. You enter a trade, but suddenly, the market turns against you. Panic sets in. Do you exit prematurely, or do you hold on with the hope of a rebound? Welcome to the emotional rollercoaster of trading.

Many traders are unaware of how emotions, particularly fear and greed, can cloud their judgement. Fear often leads to panic-selling, while greed pushes traders to hold positions longer than they should, hoping for even more profits. These emotions, lurking in the background, can overrule logic and analysis, often leading to regrettable decisions.

Even seasoned traders can find themselves gripped by these emotions. When Elon Musk tweeted about selling Tesla shares, sending shockwaves through the market, many traders reacted emotionally, causing volatile swings.

This moment illustrated how trading psychology is as important as any technical analysis – perhaps even more so.

Cognitive Biases: All the Hidden Traps in One’s Mind

It is not just raw emotions that affect trading decisions. The human mind is wired with cognitive biases: Mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making but often lead to errors. Biases such as confirmation bias, where traders seek out information that supports their existing beliefs, can create a dangerous echo chamber.

For example, a trader who believes that a certain stock is undervalued may only focus on the news and data that support this view, while ignoring contrary evidence. This selective thinking can lead to poor decision-making and missed opportunities. Other common biases, like the sunk-cost fallacy, can cause traders to hold on to losing positions, believing that their past investment somehow justifies further risk.

These biases are subtle but potent, steering traders in directions they might not intend to go. The unseen nature of cognitive biases makes them difficult to counter without a deep understanding of how they work.

The Power of the Subconscious Mind in Trading

The subconscious mind plays a powerful role in trading decisions. While traders may believe that they are acting on pure analysis, much of their behaviour is guided by ingrained habits and mental patterns. These patterns, often formed over years, operate below the surface and influence trading choices without the trader even realising it.

For instance, a trader who has experienced repeated losses may unconsciously avoid risky trades in the future, even when the setup is favourable. This risk aversion, driven by fear of failure, can cause traders to miss profitable opportunities. Conversely, a trader who has enjoyed a string of successes may become overconfident, leading to reckless behaviour and larger losses.

Traders who are unaware of the power of their subconscious mind may find themselves repeating the same mistakes, caught in a cycle of emotional reactions rather than rational decision-making.

Building Emotional Intelligence in Trading

To master trading psychology, traders need to develop emotional intelligence. Emotional intelligence is the ability to recognise, understand, and manage one’s own emotions, as well as those of others. In trading, emotional intelligence is critical because it allows traders to remain calm and composed in the face of market volatility.

One of the key aspects of emotional intelligence is self-awareness. Traders must be aware of their own emotional triggers and how these emotions affect their decision-making process. For example, a trader who recognises that they are prone to panic-selling during market downturns can take steps to mitigate this behaviour by setting stop-loss orders in advance.

Another important component of emotional intelligence is self-regulation. This involves developing the ability to control impulsive reactions, such as the urge to chase after a stock that has already risen significantly in price. Traders who can regulate their emotions are less likely to make rash decisions and more likely to stick to their trading plan.

Developing a Resilient Trading Mindset

To succeed in the markets, traders must also cultivate resilience – the ability to bounce back from losses and setbacks. Trading is inherently unpredictable, and even the most well-thought-out trades can sometimes result in losses. Traders who lack resilience may become discouraged after a string of losses and give up on their trading strategy.

Resilient traders, on the other hand, understand that losses are a natural part of trading and that success comes from staying in the game over the long term. They focus on learning from their mistakes rather than dwelling on them, and they use their experiences to improve their trading skills.

One way to build resilience is through a process of continuous self-reflection and improvement. Traders should keep a journal of their trades, noting both the technical and psychological factors that influenced their decisions. By regularly reviewing their trades, they can identify patterns in their behaviour and take steps to improve their performance.

How Trading Psychology Outweighs Strategy

A well-designed trading strategy is essential, but without the right mindset, even the best strategy will falter. Trading psychology determines how well a trader can stick to their plan, proper risk management, and avoid emotional pitfalls. In many cases, traders fail not because their strategy is flawed, but because they are unable to execute it effectively due to psychological barriers.

This is where the unseen power of trading psychology becomes apparent. Successful traders recognise that their mindset is just as important as their market analysis. They take the time to understand their own psychological strengths and weaknesses, and they work to develop the mental discipline needed to thrive in the markets.

Trading Psychology Cannot Be Seen, but Is Crucial to Your Success

In the fast-paced world of trading, where fortunes can change in the blink of an eye, the importance of trading psychology cannot be overstated. While it may be unseen and untouched, it is the invisible force that drives every trading decision.

Those who ignore it do so at their peril, while those who embrace it will find that it is the key to long-term success. Understanding and mastering trading psychology is not a one-time event; it is an ongoing process of self-discovery, emotional control, and mental discipline.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dengan pasaran global bersiap-sedia untuk pertumbuhan US yang perlahan, perhatian gobal tertumpu ke Jepun, di mana tekanan inflasi mendorong keputusan utama dari bank pusat negara itu.

Keputusan Bank of Japan untuk mengekalkan kadar faedah jangka pendek pada 0.25% terus mencetuskan perbincangan di kalangan peserta pasaran. Langkah ini dibuat berikutan inflasi yang berterusan, yang kini telah mencapai tahap tertinggi selama 10 bulan dengan National Core CPI meningkat kepada 2.8%.

Gabenor Ueda telah mengisyaratkan BOJ bersedia untuk menaikkan kadar jika inflasi terus meningkat, terutamanya apabila pertumbuhan gaji kekal kuat dan penggunaan persendirian memacu ekonomi ke hadapan.

Bagi pedagang, implikasi dasar BOJ jelas. Apabila Jepun bercanggah dengan Federal Reserve, yang dijangka menurunkan kadar, perbezaan kadar faedah antara dua ekonomi mungkin mengecil. Perubahan ini boleh mengukuhkan yen menentang dollar, terutamanya jika isyarat Ueda untuk kenaikan kadar pada masa hadapan berlaku pada Disember.

Pasangan USDJPY, yang kini berdagang berhampiran kawasan 141.70, akan mengalami ketaktentuan yang lebih tinggi. Jika yen terus mengukuh, pedagang mungkin melihat pasangan ini jatuh ke arah julat 138.00–140.00, sejajar dengan ramalan ahli ekonomi.

Penguatan yen yang berpotensi ini juga meningkatkan kemungkinan campur tangan dari pihak berkuasa Jepun. Timbalan Menteri Kewangan untuk Hal Ehwal Antarabangsa, Atsushi Mimura, telah mengulangi kesediaan kerajaan untuk bertindak sekiranya mata wang mengalami ketaktentuan melampau. Jika yen meningkat dengan sangat pantas, ia boleh mengganggu pengeksport Jepun dan mengganggu keuntungan korporat dan membawa kepada kesan ekonomi yang lebih luas.

Campur tangan dalam pasaran mata wang masih merupakan satu kemungkinan, memandangkan Jepun memiliki sejarah melangkah masuk jika pergerakan mata wang menyimpang dari asas-asas fundamental, senario yang patut dipantau dengan teliti oleh pedagang dalam beberapa bulan yang akan datang.

Apabila inflasi kekal di atas sasaran 2% bank pusat, lebih banyak peserta pasaran akan berhati-hati terhadap perdagangan USDJPY, terutamanya jika data makroekonomi US lemah dan mendesak Federal Reserve untuk menguatkuasakan dasar yang lebih dovish.

Jika perkara ini berlaku, yen boleh mengukuh dengan ketara, meletakkan tekanan ke bawah ke atas pasangan ini dan meningkatkan ketaktentuan dalam pasaran mata wang.

Pergerakan Pasaran

USDX menunjukkan pergerakan yang kecil pada hari Jumaat tetapi boleh menguji semula tahap 100.00 sebelum bergerak ke atas. Jika ia jatuh di bawah tahap ini, ia mungkin akan menyentuh 99.20 sebelum beralih ke atas. Ini boleh menurunkan USDX pada awal minggu sebelum ia kembali stabil pada pertengahan minggu.

Walupun pasangan EURUSD mengekalkan kedudukan semasa, ia berpotensi untuk bergerak ke atas dan menguji zon 1.1200 sebelum pembetulan. Tindakan harga berhampiran 1.1040 boleh menandakan permulaan struktur pembetulan yang lebih besar, yang mungkin memandu ketaktentuan dalam jangka pendek. GBPUSD juga dijangka mengekalkan trajektori ke atas disebabkan pendirian tidak komited Bank of England terhadap potongan kadar, digabungkan dengan rancangan Federal Reserve untuk pengurangan kadar. Memantau kawasan 1.3400 akan menjadi penting kerana sebarang pembetulan di sini boleh mendorong momentum bullish.

USDJPY terus berdagang lebih tinggi, didorong oleh tahap breakout 141.70. Harga kritikal seterusnya untuk dipantau ialah 144.90 kerana sebarang penolakan di sini boleh membawa kepada pembalikan. Sebaliknya, USDCHF telah bergerak ke atas dari zon 0.8460, dengan pedagang memerhatikan potensi tindakan bearish berhampiran 0.8640. Pasangan AUDUSD pula boleh mencapai tahap tertinggi 0.6870 sebelum mengukuh, menunjukkan kekuatan berpotensi dalam dolar Australia awal minggu.

Harga emas kekal kukuh, selepas berdagang di atas 2600. Harga kritikal untuk dipantau ialah 2650 dan 2670, yang boleh mencetuskan pembetulan atau sambungan trend menaik. Harga minyak juga mempamerkan potensi pembetulan berhampiran tahap $74.00. Pasaran tenaga mungkin menyaksikan rehat sebelum aliran arah seterusnya ditentukan oleh faktor luaran, seperti pembangunan geopolitik atau dinamik bekalan.

Indeks SP500 terus bergerak ke atas, menghampiri tahap tertinggi baru pada 5790 dan 5850. Pedagang patut memerhatikan pembetulan berhampiran 5570, kerana ini boleh menandakan pembalikan berpotensi atau sambungan trend bullish. Bitcoin, sebaliknya, berlegar berhampiran tahap tertinggi 65054, iaitu tahap rintangan kritikal. Jika mata wang kripto ini mengukuh sebelum memecahkan tahap ini, tindakan bullish berhampiran 59900 boleh memandu momentum ke atas.

Gas asli telah mengikuti jangkaan dengan tahap tertinggi baru, dan pedagang patut memerhatikan tindakan harga pada 2.47 untuk potensi pembetulan. Sektor tenaga, terutamanya gas asli, mungkin mengalami fluktuasi lanjut apabila peserta pasaran bertindak balas kepada faktor bekalan dan permintaan global.

Peristiwa Pasaran Minggu Ini

Jadual ekonomi minggu ini dipenuhi dengan pelepasan data yang kritikal yang boleh mempengaruhi sentimen pasaran merentas pelbagai kelas aset.

Salah satu pelepasan utama pertama adalah dari dari Eropah, dengan German Flash Manufacturing PMI dijangka mencecah 42.4. Angka ini tidak berubah dari laporan sebelumnya, menandakan penyusutan berterusan dalam sektor pembuatan German. Walaupun ini bukan bacaan positif, kestabilan dalam angka ini boleh menunjukkan kelesuan yang perlahan.

Isnin dimulakan dengan tumpuan kepada data Eropah, terutamanya German Flash Manufacturing PMI , yang diramalkan pada 42.4, sejajar dengan bacaan sebelumnya. Angka ini mencerminkan penyusutan berterusan dalam sektor pembuatan German, menonjolkan cabaran berterusan ekonomi terbesar Eropah. Jika data mengesahkan ramalan ini, ia boleh menunjukkan bahawa sektor itu masih menghadapi permintaan lemah dan kos tinggi. EURUSD dijangka menunjukkan kekuatan awal minggu sebelum merosot, apabila pedagang bertindak balas kepada prospek pembuatan yang lemah dan bersiap sedia untuk kemungkinan ketaktentuan dalam euro.

UK juga akan melancarkan Flash Manufacturing PMI, diramalkan pada 51.1, turun sedikit dari 51.2 sebelumnya. Ini menandakan bahawa sektor pembuatan UK masih mengembang, walaupun pada kadar yang perlahan. Peserta pasaran akan memerhatikan pelepasan ini dengan teliti untuk mengukur kesihatan ekonomi British, terutamanya apabila Bank of England terus berpegang kepada dasar tidak memotong kadar.

Kemudiannya pada hari itu, US akan melancarkan Flash Manufacturing PMI, yang diramalkan pada 52.3, turun sedikit dari 52.5. Data ini boleh memberikan pandangan lanjut ke sektor pembuatan US, yang telah menghadapi cabaran dari kos input yang meningkat dan gangguan rantaian bekalan global. Walaupun ramalan yang rendah sedikit masih menandakan pengembangan, momentumnya kelihatan perlahan. USDX boleh menyaksikan sedikit pergerakan ke atas jika data melebihi jangkaan, walaupun sebarang kelemahan dalam angka ini boleh mencetuskan jualan dolar. Pedagang memerhatikan pelepasan ini untuk menentukan haluan ekonomi US pada jangka pendek, terutamanya apabila menghadapi kemungkinan potongan kadar dari Federal Reserve lewat tahun ini.

Pada hari Selasa, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) akan menjadi fokus dengan keputusan kadar tunai terkini. Pasaran jangka RBA akan mengekalkan kadar pada 4.35% yang tidak berubah dari mesyuarat sebelumnya. Keputusan ini hadir ketika ekonomi Australia terus bergelut dengan inflasi tinggi dan pertumbuhan yang perlahan. Walaupun pedagang jangka RBA akan mengekalkan kadar, sebarang komen yang hawkish dari bank pusat berhubung kenaikan kadar pada masa hadapan boleh membawa kepada ralli jangka pendek dalam dolar Australia. AUDUSD dijangka terus meningkat sebelum memasuki fasa pembetulan, memberikan peluang perdagangan dengan pasangan mata wang ini.

Rabu akan menyaksikan pelepasan Consumer Price Index (CPI) tahun-ke-tahun Australia, dengan ramalan 2.8%, turun dari 3.5% sebelumnya. Penyusutan dalam inflasi ini boleh menandakan bahawa kenaikan kadar awal RBA mempunyai kesan yang diingini, menyejukkan kenaikan harga. Walau bagaimanapun, CPI yang lebih rendah dari yang dijangkakan boleh melemahkan dollar Australia, dengan AUDUSD berpotensi kehilangan momentum selepas ralli awal minggu. Pedagang perlu memerhatikan dengan teliti bagaimana data ini mempengaruhi pasaran, terutamanya dengan kebimbangan yang lebih luas berhubung dinamik pertumbuhan dan inflasi global.

Pada hari Khamis, Swiss National Bank dijangka akan melancarkan kadar dasarnya, yang diramalkan untuk dikurangkan kepada 1.00% dari 1.25%. Perubahan dovish ini menandakan pandangan yang lebih berhati-hati terhadap ekonomi Switzerland, mungkin sebagai tindak balas kepada pertumbuhan yang perlahan dan tekanan inflasi yang rendah. Sebarang penyimpangan dari kadar yang dijangkakan boleh menyuntik ketaktentuan ke dalam USDCHF, memandangkan pasangan ini sudah menjadi tumpuan untuk kemungkinan tindakan bearish berhampiran tahap 0.8640.

Data ekonomi pertengahan minggu ini juga akan menampilkan kemas kini dari US, dengan pelepasan angka GDP suku-ke-suku yang muktamad, dijangka pada 2.9%. Walaupun berada sedikit di bawah bacaan 3.0% sebelumnya, data ini masih menandakan pertumbuhan yang kukuh dalam ekonomi US. Walau bagaimanapun, sebarang kejutan di sini boleh memberi impak kepada USD, terutamanya jika digabungkan dengan data inflasi yang lemah lewat minggu. Pedagang yang memerhatikan USDCHF patut mengambil perhatian, kerana pengambilan untung boleh berlaku jika dollar menunjukkan tanda kelemahan selepas ralli awal minggu.

Kemudian pada hari Jumaat, perhatian akan tertumpu kepada US, di mana Core PCE Price Index dijangka berada pada 0.2% bulan-ke-bulan, penunjuk inflasi utama yang dipantau rapat oleh Federal Reserve. Data ini kritikal kerana ia mungkin mempengaruhi langkah Fed yang seterusnya dalam dasar monetari. Bacaan yang lebih lemah dari yang dijangkakan boleh menjurus kepada pengurangan kadar, mendesak tekanan tambahan ke atas USD. Pedagang perlu peka bagaimana data ini memainkan peranan dalam gambaran inflasi yang lebih luas kerana sebarang perubahan yang mengejut boleh membawa kepada pergerakan yang tajam dalam dollar dan aset yang berkaitan.

Pada hari yang sama, data GDP Canada akan dilancarkan, dengan jangkaan kenaikan 0.1% bulan-ke-bulan. Walaupun sederhana, kenaikan ini mungkin menunjukkan bahawa ekonomi Canada kekal berdaya tahan walaupun menghadapi kebimbangan ketidakpastian ekonomi global. Dengan pasangan USDCAD berpotensi menyasarkan 1.3500 sebelum bergerak ke atas, data ini boleh menyediakan mata titik putaran kritikal untuk pergerakan dollar Canada, terutamanya jika pedagang melihatnya sebagai penunjuk kekuatan ekonomi menghadapi kelemahan global.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be IB Portal maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours:
21st of September 2024 (Saturday) 04:00 – 06:00 (GMT+3)
Please refer to IB portal and VT Markets APP for the actual maintenance time.

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
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Please refer to MT4/MT5/VT Markets APP for the latest update on the completion and market opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

A more aggressive cut to stimulate the economy comes with risk—but there are opportunities for savvy traders to take advantage of. Read the article to learn about smart trading moves you can make to seize the opportunities.

Powell hints at rate cuts ahead

During his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Jerome Powell made it clear that a rate cut is likely on the horizon.

“It’s time for policy to adjust,” Powell stated, adding that “the direction is clear,” but the timing and pace of any cuts will depend on economic data, the outlook, and risks facing the economy.

While Powell did not provide a specific rate cut figure, his comments suggested that the Federal Reserve is ready to modify its policy to prevent further economic weakening and to guide the U.S. economy toward a “soft landing.”

How Fed rate cuts impact economic growth and market sentiment

Interest rate cuts can help boost the economy by making borrowing cheaper, but they can affect market sentiment in different ways. 

A smaller cut (25 basis points) might be viewed as a careful move that keeps investor confidence steady without causing alarm. 

On the other hand, a larger cut (50 basis points) could drive quicker economic growth but might also raise concerns about economic risks. Powell mentioned that a larger cut could be on the table if the job market is in serious trouble, aiming to prevent further cooling of labour conditions.

The Fed’s balancing act involves a few key factors

Cooling inflation trend

Recent data shows that inflation is gradually cooling, which provides the Fed with more flexibility to adjust its monetary policy. After more than a year of keeping interest rates at 5.3%—the highest level in over 20 years—Fed officials are now expressing more confidence about moving toward a rate cut.

As Jerome Powell highlighted, “upside risks to inflation have lessened,” indicating that the central bank is preparing to ease rates in the near future.

Economic indicators

Another crucial element the Fed is monitoring is a range of economic indicators, including GDP growth, employment figures, and consumer spending. While inflation has moderated, the job market is starting to show signs of strain. Unemployment has ticked up slightly, raising concerns about labour market conditions.

Powell emphasised that the Fed’s decision on when and by how much to cut rates will heavily depend on the evolving data and the broader economic outlook, which includes growth prospects and potential risks to financial stability.

Market sentiment

A significant rate cut could stir concern among investors if they interpret it as a sign of underlying economic trouble. However, recent market reactions have been positive, with the S&P 500 approaching record highs and government bond yields falling as investors increasingly anticipate a shift in Fed policy.

While the central bank aims to guide the economy toward a “soft landing,” it must balance its policy adjustments with the need to maintain market confidence.

While markets anticipate potential cuts, investors and traders can still find opportunities for value.

Tech stocks poised for gains

Technology stocks could see a boost if the Fed moves forward with rate cuts, as lower borrowing costs often support growth sectors like tech.

Source: Barron’s

AUD and NZD hold firm as USD weakens

The AUD/USD pair is steady around 0.6640 as the U.S. Dollar loses strength. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming Fed meeting, where rate cuts are expected to increase pressure on the USD.

In contrast, Australia’s strong employment data is providing support for the AUD, signalling that inflation could remain high. This leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia in a tough spot, even as the Fed prepares to ease rates.

For a detailed analysis, check out: Australian and New Zealand dollars hold ground as risk sentiment stabilises

How CFD traders can benefit from potential Fed rate cuts

With Jerome Powell hinting at upcoming rate cuts, CFD traders have a prime opportunity. A rate cut could boost tech stocks, making long CFD positions in this sector potentially profitable.

Additionally, as the USD weakens, traders might short USD-based CFDs, such as AUD/USD, to benefit from currency shifts. By staying alert to the Fed’s moves, traders can leverage CFDs for short-term gains on these anticipated market changes.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].