ZEW is due to publish Germany’s Economic Sentiment Index and Current Situation Index for April at 09:00 GMT on Tuesday. Germany’s Economic Sentiment is forecast at -5.0, down from -0.5 in March, while the Current Situation reading is seen at -70 versus -62.0.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment is expected at -3.6 in April, compared with -8.5 previously. Ahead of the release, EUR/USD is lower as the US Dollar strengthens amid cautious markets and possible US-Iran peace talks.

If the data is stronger than forecast, EUR/USD may test 1.1800, then 1.1849 (April 17 high), and 1.1926 (February 9 high). On the downside, support levels cited are 1.1728 (April 20 low), 1.1680 (100-day EMA), and 1.1588 (April 8 low).

The ZEW Economic Sentiment measure reflects a balance between optimistic and pessimistic responses. In 2022, the Euro accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion; EUR/USD accounted for about 30%, followed by EUR/JPY 4%, EUR/GBP 3%, and EUR/AUD 2%.

The ECB holds eight meetings a year, uses interest rates to pursue price stability, and has a 2% inflation target measured by HICP. Germany, France, Italy, and Spain account for 75% of the Eurozone economy, and trade balance shifts can affect currency demand.

Looking back to April 2025, we saw expectations for the German ZEW index to be deeply negative at -5.0. Today, the situation is markedly different, with the latest reading for April 2026 showing a much more optimistic 42.9. This significant improvement in investor sentiment suggests a dramatic shift in the economic outlook over the past year.

A year ago, traders were watching the EUR/USD around the 1.17 level, but the entire landscape has changed. The pair is now trading much lower, near 1.07, reflecting different economic pressures and a stronger US dollar. This fundamentally alters the strike prices and risk profiles for any new options contracts.

The European Central Bank’s policy is also a critical factor. With Eurozone inflation now hovering around 2.4%, much closer to the ECB’s 2% target, the aggressive rate-hike narrative of the past is gone. The market is now focused on the timing of potential ECB rate cuts later this year, which could limit the Euro’s upside.

Despite the positive ZEW sentiment, we must acknowledge the weakness in hard data. The German economy contracted by 0.3% last year, and industrial production remains a concern. This divergence between soft sentiment data and hard economic output is a key risk factor for traders to monitor.

Given this environment, selling volatility on EUR/USD may be a prudent strategy for the weeks ahead. With the ECB’s dovish tilt likely capping rallies and underlying economic fragility offering support, the pair could remain range-bound. This makes strategies that profit from low volatility, such as writing short-term strangles, potentially more attractive.

AUD/JPY slipped to about 113.95 in early European trading on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen strengthened against the Australian Dollar as markets became more cautious ahead of possible US-Iran peace talks.

Bloomberg reported that US Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan later on Monday to resume negotiations, either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. He is expected to be joined by Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Negotiations And Market Caution

Talks remained uncertain after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is not likely to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran. This increased the pressure on negotiators to reach an agreement to end the war.

Markets are watching Middle East events and any progress in US-Iran negotiations. A longer conflict could support the Yen as a safe-haven currency and weigh on AUD/JPY.

On the daily chart, price remains above the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (14) is 67.56, just below overbought levels, while the upper Bollinger band caps the upside.

Support is seen near the Bollinger middle band at about 111.75, then around the 100-day EMA at 108.51 and the lower Bollinger band at 108.41. Resistance is near the upper band at 115.10.

Key Levels And Technical Focus

Looking back at the situation in 2025, we saw the AUD/JPY cross facing uncertainty from potential US-Iran peace talks. The Japanese Yen was poised to strengthen on any signs of prolonged conflict. The key technical levels we were watching were the 108.51 EMA for support and the 115.10 level for a bullish breakout.

Those talks ultimately led to a fragile de-escalation, which temporarily reduced the Yen’s safe-haven appeal and caused carry traders to pile back in. This propelled the pair well through the 115.10 resistance level, eventually topping out near 118.50 late last year. The bullish sentiment we saw forming in 2025 did indeed play out for several months.

Today, the main driver has shifted from that specific geopolitical risk to the vast interest rate gap between the two nations. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept rates firm at 4.5% to combat inflation, which is still running at 3.8%. This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan, which only recently moved its policy rate to a mere 0.1% in January.

This wide interest rate differential of over 400 basis points makes holding long AUD/JPY positions attractive for the positive carry. Traders should consider using options, like buying calls or selling puts, to capitalize on this while managing downside risk if geopolitical tensions resurface. The stability of iron ore prices around $110 per tonne provides a fundamental support for the Aussie dollar.

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Gold prices in India fell on Tuesday, based on data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at INR 14,428.73 per gram, down from INR 14,513.10 on Monday.

The price per tola slipped to INR 168,293.80 from INR 169,277.90 a day earlier. Other listed rates were INR 144,287.30 for 10 grams and INR 448,784.40 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Local Gold Prices

FXStreet converts international gold prices into Indian rupees using USD/INR and local units. The figures are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local prices may differ slightly.

Gold is often used as a store of value and a medium of exchange, and is also used in jewellery. It is also used as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold and may buy it to diversify reserves. World Gold Council data says central banks added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase on record.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets. Its price can be affected by geopolitical risks, recession fears, interest rates, and the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

Key Market Drivers To Watch

With inflation proving difficult to tame, gold remains a critical asset for hedging. We saw this throughout 2025, as core inflation remained stubbornly above the 3% level in both the US and Europe. This persistent price pressure continues to support the case for holding gold as a store of value.

Central bank buying provides a strong underlying bid for the market. Looking back, we saw central banks add over 1,000 tonnes to their reserves in both 2022 and 2023, a trend that continued through 2025. This consistent demand from official sources creates a solid floor under the price, limiting downside risk for traders.

The primary focus for the coming weeks will be on future interest rate policy. After holding rates steady for most of 2025, the market is now pricing in potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in the third quarter of this year, 2026. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes more attractive as interest rates are expected to fall.

This anticipation of lower rates is already putting pressure on the US Dollar. As gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar typically pushes the metal’s price higher. This inverse relationship will be a key driver of gold’s performance moving forward.

For derivative traders, this environment suggests preparing for upward volatility. Buying call options could be a prudent strategy to gain exposure to potential price spikes caused by a confirmed shift in central bank policy. This allows for participation in the upside while defining the maximum risk on the trade.

We must also watch for any instability in the broader financial markets. A significant sell-off in equities, driven by recession fears or geopolitical events, would likely trigger a flight to safety. Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset means it would benefit directly from such a move.

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AUD/USD failed to build on Monday’s rebound from 0.7115, a three-day low, and edged lower in Tuesday’s Asian session. It traded near 0.7165, down 0.15%, and remained close to last Friday’s highest level since June 2022.

Market direction stayed linked to the US-Iran dispute, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a second round of peace talks in Pakistan. This cautious mood supported the US Dollar, while higher crude oil prices added inflation concerns that also backed the Dollar and weighed on AUD/USD.

Fed And Rba Policy Divergence

Further US Dollar gains were limited as markets reduced expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike. Pricing pointed to a roughly 45-50% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end, compared with a more restrictive policy stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said last week the bank remains focused on stopping medium-term inflation expectations from rising. Markets priced a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rise in May and projected a potential peak rate of 4.85% by mid-2026.

We are seeing the AUD/USD hover near its highest point since June 2022, around the 0.7165 level. While there is some selling pressure, any significant drops seem to find support, as they did recently at 0.7115. This suggests an underlying strength in the pair, even with day-to-day hesitation.

The core support for the Aussie dollar comes from the RBA’s firm stance against inflation, which we saw last year in 2025 persistently above their target. With Australia’s latest Q1 CPI data showing inflation at a stubborn 3.6%, the market is now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate hike next month to 4.60%. This contrasts sharply with the US, where Core PCE has cooled to 2.8%, making a Fed rate cut by year-end a real possibility.

Geopolitical Risk And Oil Driven Volatility

However, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and their effect on crude oil are keeping a lid on the pair. WTI crude prices are elevated, currently trading around $85 a barrel, reviving inflation fears globally and supporting the safe-haven US dollar. We saw a similar dynamic with energy prices back in 2022, where geopolitical events caused sharp, unpredictable market swings.

Given this tug-of-war, we should consider strategies that benefit from a gradual rise while managing risk from high volatility. A bull call spread could be effective, allowing us to profit from a move higher but with a defined cost and risk profile. This approach helps offset the expensive option premiums caused by the current geopolitical uncertainty.

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Gold prices in Malaysia fell on Tuesday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at MYR 609.83 per gram, down from MYR 613.46 on Monday.

Gold also dropped to MYR 7,112.83 per tola from MYR 7,155.31 a day earlier. FXStreet listed MYR 6,098.15 for 10 grams and MYR 18,967.92 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Malaysia Gold Prices

FXStreet calculates Malaysia’s gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/MYR rate and local units. Prices are updated daily at publication time and are for reference, as local rates may differ slightly.

Gold has been used as a store of value and a medium of exchange, and is widely used in jewellery. It is also used as a safe-haven asset and as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

Central banks hold the most gold and added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council. This was the highest annual purchase since records began, with China, India and Turkey increasing reserves.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and some risk assets. Prices can also react to geopolitical events, recession fears, interest rates, and the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

Key Market Forces Shaping Gold Prices

While we see a minor dip in the gold price today, April 21, 2026, it is essential to consider the larger context. Looking back, we saw gold prices surge to record highs above $2,400 per ounce in 2024, demonstrating remarkable strength even when interest rates were elevated. This resilience suggests a fundamental shift in the market that derivative traders must now navigate.

A primary driver has been the relentless purchasing by central banks, a trend that accelerated through 2024 and 2025. We saw central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, add over 1,000 tonnes to their reserves again in 2024, continuing the record pace from the previous two years. This persistent demand provides a strong floor for prices and signals a long-term strategic move away from traditional reserve assets.

The key variable for the coming weeks will be the outlook on US interest rates and the dollar. After holding rates firm through most of 2025 to fight lingering inflation, recent economic data, such as the Q1 2026 jobs report showing a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.1%, is fueling speculation of a policy shift. Any confirmation of future rate cuts would likely weaken the dollar and serve as a significant catalyst for gold, making call options or long futures positions attractive.

Geopolitical tensions, which we saw simmer throughout 2025 with ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to underpin gold’s safe-haven appeal. This creates an environment where implied volatility may rise, presenting opportunities for traders using options. For those anticipating instability, buying straddles or strangles could be a viable strategy to profit from a large price move in either direction, irrespective of the Fed’s immediate actions.

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for Tuesday at 6.8594. This compared with the previous day’s fix of 6.8648 and a Reuters estimate of 6.8112.

The PBOC’s main monetary policy aims are price stability, including exchange rate stability, and supporting economic growth. It also works on financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

Governance And Independence

The PBOC is state-owned by the People’s Republic of China and is not an autonomous body. The Chinese Communist Party Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has key influence over the bank’s management and direction, and Pan Gongsheng holds both this role and the governor post.

Policy tools include the seven-day Reverse Repo Rate, the Medium-term Lending Facility, foreign exchange interventions and the Reserve Requirement Ratio. The Loan Prime Rate is China’s benchmark rate and changes can affect loan, mortgage and savings rates, as well as the Renminbi exchange rate.

China has 19 private banks, a small share of the system. The largest include WeBank and MYbank, and private capitalised domestic lenders have been allowed since 2014.

Given today’s stronger-than-expected fixing by the People’s Bank of China, we see a clear signal of their discomfort with recent yuan weakness. The central bank is actively pushing back against market estimates, suggesting an intent to enforce currency stability in the short term. This action follows a period where the yuan has depreciated over 1.5% against the dollar in the last quarter alone.

Implications For Markets And Trading

This move comes amid conflicting economic data, which we believe is forcing the PBOC’s hand. While China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth came in slightly below target at 4.8%, recent export figures for March showed a surprising 6% year-over-year increase, largely aided by the weaker currency. Today’s fixing indicates that managing capital outflow risks and maintaining stability is taking precedence over using a weaker exchange rate to further boost exports.

For derivative traders, this suggests that implied volatility in USD/CNH options is likely overpriced and should decline in the coming weeks. We should consider strategies that profit from a decrease in volatility, such as selling short-dated strangles, as the central bank has now signaled its intention to keep the currency within a tighter range. The probability of the yuan rapidly weakening past the 6.90 level has been significantly reduced by this official intervention.

Looking back, this action contrasts with the policy stance we observed through much of 2025. We recall several cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) last year, which were implemented to stimulate a sluggish domestic economy. Those easing measures contributed to the yuan’s gradual slide, a trend the PBOC now appears determined to pause.

A more stable yuan typically provides a calming effect across regional emerging markets. We should anticipate reduced pressure on other Asian currencies that often move in tandem with the yuan. This could present opportunities in derivatives on regional stock indices, such as the Hang Seng, which often react positively to signs of stability from mainland China.

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USD/JPY moved up in Asian trading on Tuesday and reached 159.00 after mixed moves the day before. The pair stayed within the same range seen over the past month, which kept near-term direction unclear.

The yen weakened as concerns grew that Japan’s economy could face pressure if energy supplies are disrupted, linked to shipping problems through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy and worries about possible market action by authorities limited further yen losses.

BoJ Policy And Intervention Risk

Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged in April due to Middle East uncertainty, but may signal it could raise rates as soon as June because higher imported energy costs may affect inflation. Japanese officials also said they will not accept excessive volatility and are ready to take “bold” action, keeping the risk of intervention in focus.

The US dollar traded near a nearly two-month low reached last Friday as markets reduced expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate rise. Differences between Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve policy outlooks continued to limit the pair, and further gains would need stronger buying.

We remember looking at this situation in 2025, when the pair was stuck around the 159 level amid uncertainty. The fears of intervention were realized later that year when authorities sold dollars heavily in the third quarter, spending a record ¥10 trillion as the rate approached 160. That action, combined with the policy shifts that followed, has since pushed the pair significantly lower.

The divergent policy expectations mentioned back then fully played out over the last year. The Bank of Japan followed through with two small rate hikes, bringing its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark rate three times to the current 4.50%. This interest rate differential compression is the main reason we are now trading near 145.50, a far cry from the highs of 2025.

Options Strategy For a Rangebound Market

For the coming weeks, selling volatility appears to be the most sensible strategy for derivative traders. With the major policy shifts now in the past and the pair settling into a new equilibrium, implied volatility in USD/JPY options has fallen to its lowest level in 18 months. We see an opportunity in constructing short strangles or iron condors centered around the 145 strike price to collect premium from this stable environment.

However, we should stay alert to new inflation data that could disrupt this calm. The most recent US CPI reading for March 2026 came in slightly above forecasts at 3.1%, causing some to question whether the Fed will continue its easing cycle. Traders should consider using some of the premium earned from selling options to buy cheap, far out-of-the-money call options as a hedge against any unexpected return of dollar strength.

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EUR/USD traded slightly lower near 1.1785 in early Asian hours on Tuesday, as markets assessed Middle East tensions before a 14-day ceasefire is due to expire on Wednesday. Germany and Eurozone ZEW surveys are due later on Tuesday, while the US March Retail Sales report is also scheduled.

US President Donald Trump said he is in no rush to end the conflict with Iran, but also said he expects new talks with Tehran in Pakistan. The comments came as the ceasefire deadline approaches.

Ceasefire Talks And Market Reaction

Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran will not accept negotiations with the US while under threat, according to the Guardian. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said “continued violations of the ceasefire” by the US hinder the diplomatic process.

Uncertainty around US-Iran ceasefire discussions supported demand for the US Dollar, which weighed on EUR/USD. The pair faced headwinds as risk conditions remained unsettled.

European Central Bank officials were reported to prefer keeping interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. Barclays expects attention to move towards possible 25 basis point hikes in June and September, linked to an energy-driven inflation rise.

We recall this time last year, in the spring of 2025, when EUR/USD was trading near 1.18 amid uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire talks. The market was also pricing in future rate hikes from the European Central Bank to fight a surge in energy prices. At the time, the focus was on how these two factors would drive the currency pair.

Those US-Iran ceasefire negotiations eventually stalled, creating risk-off sentiment that boosted the US Dollar through the second half of 2025. This geopolitical risk premium has become a recurring theme, causing the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) to average over 19 for the last six months, a notable increase from prior years. The underlying tensions continue to simmer, adding a layer of uncertainty to markets.

Policy Divergence And Options Positioning

The European Central Bank did follow through with two 25 basis point hikes in 2025, but the effect has been muted by stubborn US inflation. With the latest US Consumer Price Index for March 2026 holding at 2.9%, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will hold rates higher for longer. This policy divergence has been the primary driver pushing EUR/USD down to the 1.07 handle where we see it today.

Given this environment, we see continued downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Traders should consider buying June 2026 put options with a strike price around 1.06 to capitalize on further dollar strength. This strategy offers a defined-risk way to position for a break of the year’s lows.

However, any sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a surprisingly weak US jobs report could cause a sharp snap-back rally. To prepare for an increase in volatility in either direction, purchasing a long straddle for May expiration could be effective. This allows a trader to profit from a significant price move, regardless of the direction.

The upcoming data on US Q1 GDP and the flash estimate for Eurozone April inflation will be critical catalysts. A robust US growth figure above the forecasted 2.1% would reinforce the bearish case for EUR/USD, making puts more attractive. Conversely, an unexpected jump in European inflation could force the ECB to adopt a more hawkish tone, benefiting call option strategies.

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NZD/USD rose to about 0.5910 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, as the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after inflation data. Focus later on Tuesday turns to the US March Retail Sales report.

Statistics New Zealand said CPI increased 3.1% year on year in Q1 2026, matching the 3.1% rise in Q4 2025 and above the 2.9% forecast. Quarterly CPI rose 0.9% in Q1 from 0.6%, above the 0.8% estimate.

New Zealand Inflation Lifts Kiwi

The US Dollar could find support from rising US–Iran tensions, which can lift demand for safe-haven currencies. A two-week ceasefire is due to end on Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday he is not likely to extend the ceasefire with Iran. Iran’s top negotiator said Tehran will not negotiate under threats and accused Trump of seeking a “table of surrender”.

The New Zealand dollar is seeing some strength after inflation came in hotter than expected. This Q1 CPI reading of 3.1% YoY means the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely feel pressure to keep interest rates high for longer. We see this as delaying any potential rate cuts that the market might have been anticipating for later this year.

However, a major risk is the escalating tension between the US and Iran, with a ceasefire set to expire this week. A failure to extend it could trigger a flight to safety, benefiting the US dollar. We remember how the VIX index, a key measure of market fear, surged over 45% in the week after the conflict in Ukraine began back in 2022, showing how quickly markets can pivot to risk-off sentiment.

US Retail Sales In Focus

All eyes are now on the US Retail Sales report for March, which is due out later today. A strong number would reinforce the idea of a robust US economy, giving the Federal Reserve less reason to cut rates and further strengthening the dollar. For example, back in March 2024, retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.7%, which provided a significant lift to the Greenback at the time.

Given these powerful but opposing forces, we believe volatility in the NZD/USD is the main takeaway for the coming weeks. One-week implied volatility for the pair is already climbing towards 12% as traders anticipate a significant price swing. This environment suggests that long volatility strategies, such as buying straddles or strangles, could be effective to profit from a large move in either direction.

For those with existing positions, using options to hedge against a sharp reversal is a prudent move. Purchasing put options can protect a long NZD position from a sudden drop caused by geopolitical news or strong US data. Alternatively, a trader convinced of one outcome could use options to make a defined-risk bet, such as buying a call option if they believe the RBNZ’s stance will ultimately outweigh the geopolitical risks.

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Gold (XAU/USD) was little changed near $4,825 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, as markets assessed fresh geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Prices held steady as uncertainty continued around regional security and diplomacy.

Reuters reported on Monday that Iran is considering attending peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, after Islamabad moved to end a US blockade of Iran’s ports. Officials said no decision had been made, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cited “continued violations of the ceasefire” by the US as an obstacle to further talks.

Geopolitical Risk And Energy Market Impact

Oil prices have risen on concerns about a breakdown in US-Iran talks and the possibility of a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs can add to inflation expectations and reduce the likelihood of interest-rate cuts, which can limit demand for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Later on Tuesday, the focus is the US Retail Sales report. Retail Sales are forecast to rise 1.4% month-on-month in March, up from 0.6% in February; weaker-than-expected inflation could pressure the US dollar and support dollar-priced gold.

With gold trading near $4,825, the market is caught between Middle Eastern geopolitical support and the pressure of high interest rates. This deadlock suggests that outright directional bets are risky in the immediate term. We see traders becoming cautious, waiting for a clear catalyst to break the current range.

The primary upside risk is a complete breakdown in the US-Iran peace talks, which could escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. We saw during similar episodes in 2019 that even the threat of disruption to oil supplies can cause a flight to safety, benefiting gold. A renewed blockade would almost certainly push gold toward new highs, making long call options an attractive hedge.

Rates Inflation And Volatility Strategies

However, the dominant headwind for gold remains stubborn inflation and the corresponding central bank policy. With the last US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing inflation running at 3.1%, well above the Fed’s target, the market has priced out most expected rate cuts for this year. This high interest rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold.

This week’s US Retail Sales data will be a crucial test of this dynamic. A figure coming in stronger than the expected 1.4% would reinforce the idea of a robust US economy, likely strengthening the dollar and pushing gold lower. Conversely, a weak number could revive rate cut hopes and provide a lift for the precious metal.

Given these conflicting signals, we believe traders should consider strategies that capitalize on volatility rather than direction alone. Buying long-dated straddles or strangles could prove effective, as they would profit from a large price move in either direction. This approach allows one to position for a breakout without betting on whether it will be caused by a missile or a weak economic report.

We also have to look at how implied volatility behaved during the 2025 debt ceiling negotiations, where it spiked significantly before collapsing once a deal was reached. The current situation feels similar, suggesting that selling options premium through strategies like iron condors could be profitable if peace talks succeed and gold’s price action calms down. This would be a bet that the current uncertainty is overpriced by the options market.

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