Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu said India’s new GDP series shows weaker past growth and softer domestic demand than earlier data. The revised series also points to a lower level of overall activity. The revision suggests real GDP growth was overstated by about 2 percentage points. It also indicates that real GDP and consumption were overstated in the earlier series.

New Series And Growth Reality

The new series aligns more closely with high-frequency indicators and labour market surveys. It also supports the view that the post-pandemic recovery has faced limits to growth. The updated data shows a negative manufacturing sector deflator in several periods, including when inflation was rising. This points to weak domestic demand conditions across those spans. The analysis refers to structural constraints and stress on household balance sheets. It also says the September 2025 GST rate cut offers limited support for overall demand. The new GDP series confirms what we have been arguing for some time: the Indian economy’s recovery has hit a structural wall. With prior growth and domestic demand now shown to be significantly overstated, we must expect a major downward repricing of Indian assets. The market has been operating under a false narrative, and this correction will likely be swift.

Trade Ideas And Market Positioning

Given this fundamental reassessment, we should consider buying put options on broad market indices like the Nifty 50 for the coming weeks. The data’s revelation of weak manufacturing demand is supported by the latest Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figures from January 2026, which showed a disappointing 1.2% year-on-year growth. This indicates the underlying economic engine is sputtering far more than previously believed. We should also anticipate a sharp rise in market volatility as investors digest the nearly 2 percentage point downward revision in historical growth. Buying India VIX futures or call options provides a direct way to profit from the coming uncertainty. Looking back, we saw a similar spike in the VIX during the growth scare in late 2025, and this official data confirmation could trigger an even stronger move. The report’s focus on weak domestic demand and household stress signals a clear bearish stance on consumer-facing sectors. We should establish short positions, perhaps through put options on major auto and consumer discretionary stocks. The ineffectiveness of the September 2025 GST rate cut, which failed to meaningfully boost consumption in the fourth quarter of last year, was a clear early warning of this deeper problem. This weaker economic outlook will inevitably weigh on the Indian Rupee as foreign capital re-evaluates its exposure. We anticipate further depreciation, especially as the USD/INR pair has already broken above the 84.50 level this month. Going long on USD/INR futures contracts is a logical strategy to hedge against, and profit from, potential capital outflows. The Reserve Bank of India is now in a difficult position, as the latest CPI inflation data for February 2026 remains stubbornly high at 5.4%. This stagflationary mix of weak growth and persistent inflation kills any prospect of monetary easing in the near term. With no rate cuts on the horizon to support the market, the path of least resistance for equities is down. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD fell for a second day, trading near 0.5820 on Wednesday and down 0.22%. The move followed a stronger US Dollar, helped by a risk-off tone in markets. Middle East tensions increased demand for safe-haven assets. Talks between the US and Iran remained uncertain, with recent events pointing to no quick agreement.

Drivers Behind The Move

The US Dollar also gained support from expectations that the Federal Reserve may stay hawkish. Inflation worries, linked in part to higher energy prices, led markets to price in higher US interest rates. New Zealand’s outlook stayed weak. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said spare capacity will affect how the bank responds to inflation pressures from higher oil prices. Fitch Ratings revised New Zealand’s sovereign outlook to negative. It cited risks tied to the Middle East conflict and New Zealand’s reliance on energy imports, adding pressure on the NZD. Looking back at the situation in late 2025, we saw the NZD/USD pair under significant pressure around 0.5820 due to Middle East tensions and a hawkish Federal Reserve. That downward momentum largely played out as the interest rate differential between the US and New Zealand widened. The analysis from that time correctly identified the key drivers for the pair’s weakness.

Strategy Implications For Traders

The Federal Reserve did indeed prove more resolute than many expected, with US inflation remaining sticky above target, currently at 2.8% for February 2026. While the Fed has initiated its cutting cycle, the Fed Funds Rate at 4.75% remains elevated, providing ongoing support for the US Dollar. This contrasts with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which began cutting rates earlier and now holds its Official Cash Rate at 5.00%. This policy divergence helped push NZD/USD to lows near 0.5600 earlier this year, though we have since seen a recovery to around 0.5950. The Fitch downgrade in 2025 proved prescient as New Zealand’s economy entered a technical recession, from which it is only now showing early signs of recovery. For traders, this means the environment has shifted from one of clear directional momentum to a more range-bound reality. Given that the major rate policy moves may now be priced in, implied volatility has been falling. The Cboe NZD/USD 3-month volatility index has dropped to 8.5% from the highs of over 12% we saw in late 2025. This suggests that strategies involving selling options to collect premium could now be more favorable than outright directional bets. Therefore, traders should consider selling strangles or straddles, betting on the pair remaining within a defined range as the economic picture in both nations slowly stabilizes. This is a shift from the previous environment where buying puts or holding short futures positions was the more obvious trade. The reduced volatility and clearer central bank paths make premium collection an attractive strategy in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CAD rose on Wednesday for a third straight session as a stronger US Dollar kept the Canadian Dollar under pressure. The pair traded near 1.3806, its highest level since 22 January. The US Dollar found support from rising Middle East tensions. Iran rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal and dismissed Washington’s 15-point plan, saying any deal would be on its own terms.

Oil Price Volatility And Cad Sensitivity

Oil prices stayed volatile but remained above pre-conflict levels despite a pullback. Canada is a major crude exporter, so higher oil prices can support the Canadian Dollar, but US Dollar strength and risk aversion outweighed that effect. Technically, USD/CAD gained momentum after breaking above the 50-day SMA at 1.3680 and moving through the 1.3700–1.3750 resistance zone. It also rose above the 100-day SMA at 1.3783, pointing to a more bullish near-term bias. The RSI was 65, moving towards overbought territory. The MACD stayed above its Signal line with a positive histogram, showing continued buying pressure. Resistance levels are 1.3850 and 1.3900. Support is the 1.3700–1.3750 zone, with the 100-day SMA as a key level.

Correction And Session Count

A correction noted that the move extended gains for a third session, not a second, as of 25 March at 18:15 GMT. We remember looking at a similar setup back in March of 2025, when geopolitical risk pushed USD/CAD above 1.3800. While that rally was driven by safe-haven demand for the US dollar, the situation today is being shaped more by economic fundamentals. The core theme for the coming weeks will be the growing difference in monetary policy between the US and Canada. The latest inflation data for February 2026 shows US CPI holding firm at 3.2%, while Canadian CPI has cooled to 2.8%. This gap suggests the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates higher for longer than the Bank of Canada. This policy divergence is creating a strong tailwind for the US dollar against the loonie. For derivative traders, this outlook favors strategies that profit from a rising USD/CAD. We should consider buying call options to gain upside exposure with limited risk. A bull call spread, buying a lower-strike call and selling a higher-strike call, could also be used to reduce the initial cost of the trade. Even with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices staying strong around $81 a barrel, this is not providing the usual support for the Canadian dollar. Just as we saw in 2025, the powerful influence of interest rate expectations is currently outweighing the positive impact of high oil prices. This makes shorting USD/CAD, even with firm oil, a risky proposition. Currently, the pair is testing resistance near the 1.3650 level, which corresponds with the 200-day moving average. A decisive break above this point would signal that the next leg up is beginning. This technical confirmation would be a key trigger for us to add to bullish positions. Therefore, traders should watch for a sustained move above 1.3650 to initiate long positions. An effective strategy would be to buy May 2026 call options with a strike price of 1.3700 or 1.3800. This provides a clear path to profit if the expected policy-driven rally continues through the second quarter. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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At a European Parliament committee hearing on 18 March 2026, Claudia Buch, Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board, said there was no decline in bank asset quality and non-performing loan (NPL) ratios remained stable. NPL ratios are used as an indirect measure of the financial health of borrowing firms in the EU, especially in manufacturing. Across most EU countries, manufacturing NPL ratios are at historically low levels. Countries with the highest ratios at the start of the period generally saw the sharpest falls.

Manufacturing Npl Trends Across The Eu

In most cases, manufacturing NPL ratios fell by more than half between Q2 2019 and Q4 2025. Where ratios rose over that time, the increases were generally modest. The overall fall in manufacturing NPL ratios points to improved financial health in many EU countries. This suggests the sector may be better placed to absorb the 2026 energy shock linked to the war in Iran than it was at the start of the 2022 war in Ukraine. Policy support is expected to be more limited due to budget constraints. Orders linked to defence, public infrastructure and AI may help reduce the impact on business bankruptcies and unemployment. We are seeing European manufacturing corporations face this new energy shock from Iran from a position of relative strength. Following Claudia Buch’s comments on March 18, we know bank asset quality is stable, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for manufacturers having fallen by more than half by the end of 2025. However, with Brent crude futures now surging past $115 a barrel, this underlying health will be severely tested in the coming weeks.

Volatility And Hedging Trade Setups

This situation points towards a spike in market uncertainty, making long volatility positions attractive. The VSTOXX index, Europe’s main fear gauge, has already climbed to 28, and we should consider buying call options or futures on it, anticipating a move towards the levels over 40 seen during the 2022 shock. At the same time, this implies downside pressure on broad indices, making put options on the Euro Stoxx 50 a reasonable hedge against long equity portfolios. The impact will not be uniform across sectors, creating opportunities for pair trades. We should look at buying put options on energy-intensive industrial ETFs, as the latest flash PMI data from March 24th already showed a dip to 45.2, citing energy costs. These short positions can be paired with call options on defence contractors like Rheinmetall, which continue to benefit from strong order books established through 2025. Beyond equities, the credit markets may be underpricing the coming risk due to the historically low NPLs. We could consider buying protection through credit default swaps (CDS) on indices tracking lower-rated European corporate debt. A sustained energy price shock will inevitably strain balance sheets, regardless of their starting point. Finally, this is a clear negative for the Euro, as the region is a net energy importer. The European Central Bank’s focus on inflation, as reiterated last week, limits its ability to soften the blow, reinforcing the case for a weaker currency. We should view any strength in the EUR/USD as an opportunity to initiate short positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Australia’s headline CPI was flat month on month in February, and annual inflation eased to 3.7% versus a 3.8% consensus forecast. January and February results suggest trimmed mean inflation is running slightly below the RBA’s February 2026 Statement of Monetary Policy track. Housing and electricity were key sources of price pressure. Annual housing inflation rose from 6.8% year on year in January, linked to higher costs for electricity, new dwellings and rents.

Electricity Rebates And Underlying Inflation

Electricity prices and inflation measures have been affected by Commonwealth and State Government rebates and by the timing of their expiry. Excluding the effect of these rebates over the past year, electricity prices increased 4.9% in the 12 months to February. The monthly CPI series is still relatively new and needs more time before it can be used as the main benchmark. Inflation in February stayed elevated before the US/Israel-Iran war disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies and pushed petrol prices higher. The February inflation number coming in at 3.7% might seem like good news, but we see underlying strength that the market is overlooking. Housing and electricity costs are not easing, which means the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has little room to soften its stance. This suggests that market pricing for interest rate cuts later this year may be too optimistic. Given these stubborn price pressures, we are looking at derivatives that bet on the RBA holding the cash rate at its current 4.35% for longer than anticipated. Back in late 2025, the market was far more aggressive in pricing rate cuts for mid-2026. We are now considering selling 90-day bank bill futures contracts, which would profit if short-term interest rates do not fall as expected.

Positioning For Rates And Volatility

The temporary government electricity rebates have been masking the true extent of inflation, and their expiration will create an upward shock in the coming months. Furthermore, the recent escalation in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude oil prices above $95 a barrel, a factor not even captured in the latest data. This adds another layer of upside risk to inflation that derivatives markets may not have fully priced in. A hawkish RBA, holding rates steady while other central banks might be looking to ease, creates a favorable environment for the Australian dollar. We are exploring call options on the AUD/USD pair, anticipating that a widening interest rate differential will support the currency. This is a similar pattern to what we observed in parts of 2025 when rate divergence drove currency movements. The conflicting signals—a soft headline number against strong core drivers and new geopolitical risks—point towards increased market uncertainty. Volatility is likely to rise from its currently subdued levels, with the S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index trading near 12. Buying options, such as straddles on interest rate futures, could be a prudent strategy to profit from a significant market move in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The United States 5-year note auction yield rose to 3.98% from 3.615% at the previous auction. This change shows an increase of 0.365 percentage points compared with the prior result.

Implications For Fed Policy

This sharp increase in the 5-year note yield is a significant hawkish signal, suggesting the market is now pricing in a more aggressive Federal Reserve posture for longer than we anticipated. We must adjust our positions to reflect the growing possibility that rate cuts are further off than the consensus believed just last month. This indicates a clear shift in bond market sentiment, forcing a re-evaluation of our interest rate forecasts for the remainder of 2026. The move aligns with the latest inflation data from February 2026, which showed core CPI stubbornly holding at 3.3%, well above the Fed’s comfort zone. Looking back at the aggressive rate-hike cycle of 2022 and 2023, the market is now pricing in less than a 40% chance of a rate cut before the September 2026 meeting, down from over 70% a month ago. Consequently, we should consider adding to short positions in Treasury futures, specifically the 5-year (/ZF) and 10-year (/ZN) contracts, to capitalize on this trend. For equities, this development spells trouble for growth-oriented sectors sensitive to higher borrowing costs. We saw in 2022 how quickly valuations can compress when discount rates rise, and this auction result is a fresh reminder of that vulnerability. Therefore, buying protective put options on the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF (QQQ) or establishing bearish call spreads on the S&P 500 are prudent moves to hedge our portfolios. This divergence in yield expectations should also provide a strong tailwind for the U.S. dollar. With the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan still maintaining a more dovish tone, the interest rate differential is widening in the dollar’s favor, which has already pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) up 2% this month to over 106. We should look to establish or increase long positions in USD futures (/DX) against a basket of other major currencies. Finally, the implied volatility in the bond market is now on the rise, with the MOVE index climbing back above 110 for the first time since last quarter. This jump in uncertainty suggests that outright directional bets could face significant whipsaws in the coming weeks. It would be wise to use options strategies like straddles on bond ETFs such as TLT to profit from this increased volatility, regardless of the ultimate direction of rates.

Portfolio Risk Management

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The Pound Sterling fell against the US Dollar on Wednesday as the Dollar edged higher. Risk aversion increased after reports said Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant was hit. UK inflation data also weighed on GBP/USD during the session. The pair was down 0.30% and traded near 1.3370 at the time of writing.

Geopolitical Risk And Uk Inflation

We remember seeing a similar pattern back in 2025, when geopolitical risk and stubborn UK inflation pushed GBP/USD down towards 1.3370. That combination of a strong safe-haven Dollar and domestic UK economic concerns created significant downside pressure. This dynamic appears to be re-emerging, but with a new set of figures relevant to us today. The key driver now is the policy divergence between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. With the latest UK CPI data for February 2026 coming in at 2.1%, just above the BoE’s target, the pressure to hold rates high is easing. In contrast, recent US core PCE data remains stickier at 2.8%, suggesting the Fed will be more patient, which is keeping the Dollar bid and has pushed the GBP/USD pair to its current level around 1.2550. This environment suggests that implied volatility may increase in the coming weeks. We’ve seen the Cboe Sterling VIX (BPVIX) already tick up to 9.5, its highest level this quarter, indicating traders are pricing in larger price swings. For those anticipating further downside, buying GBP/USD put options with expirations in late April or May could provide a cost-effective way to position for a break below the 1.2500 support level. Alternatively, for traders looking for a more capital-efficient strategy, establishing bearish put spreads could be a prudent move. This would involve buying a put at a higher strike price and selling one at a lower strike price to finance the position. This approach allows us to target a specific downward range for the pair while managing premium costs in a market where volatility is expected to rise.

Options Strategies For Sterling Weakness

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Silver (XAG/USD) slowed its rise on Wednesday and traded below the day’s high as early optimism over US-Iran ceasefire efforts faded. XAG/USD was near $72.74, up about 2%, after dropping earlier this week to around $61, its lowest since December 2025. Silver jumped after reports the US sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the conflict, which reduced geopolitical risk priced into Oil. Lower immediate inflation worries eased pressure on central banks to raise rates, supporting a non-yielding asset like Silver.

Ceasefire Hopes Fade

The move weakened after Iran rejected the proposal, with Press TV reporting Tehran would end the conflict only on its own terms. Iran’s conditions include stopping attacks and assassinations, guarantees the war will not restart, compensation for damages, an end to fighting across regional fronts, and recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty supported the US Dollar, while high Oil prices kept inflation risks in place, limiting follow-through buying in Silver. Technical signals were neutral to mildly bearish, with price below the 50-day SMA at $85.51 and the 100-day SMA at $74.33. RSI was 40 and ADX was in the low 20s, pointing to weak momentum. Resistance sits at the 100-day SMA, with $80 next, while support is near $66.01, then $61.01, and the 200-day SMA at $57.99. The rejection of the US ceasefire plan by Iran signals that geopolitical tensions will remain the primary driver for silver in the coming weeks. We are seeing this reflected in options pricing, with the Silver Volatility Index (SVIX) recently spiking to 42, a high not seen since the conflict began late in 2025. This environment suggests that outright directional bets are risky, and strategies profiting from price swings should be considered.

Options Strategy Outlook

Iran’s firm stance, particularly its demand for control over the Strait of Hormuz, is keeping WTI crude oil prices elevated above $115 a barrel, sustaining inflation fears. This provides a fundamental reason for the US Dollar’s continued strength, which acts as a headwind for silver prices. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds trimmed their net-long silver futures positions by 12%, highlighting growing institutional caution. Given the technical weakness below the 100-day moving average near $74.33, traders could consider buying put options to speculate on a retest of the $61 low from earlier this week. Conversely, call options with strike prices above $75 offer a defined-risk way to play a potential breakout driven by any unexpected de-escalation. The wide and uncertain price range makes long straddle positions, which benefit from a large move in either direction, an attractive strategy. We can look back at the market’s reaction during the initial months of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 for a potential roadmap. Precious metals saw sharp, headline-driven swings in both directions before a clearer trend emerged. This historical precedent reinforces the idea that for now, nimble strategies are likely to be more effective than holding long-term directional positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/USD fell towards the 0.6960 area as traders weighed mixed Australian inflation data and changes in global risk sentiment. The pair was near 0.6962, after an earlier dip still kept near-term moves cautious. Australia’s February headline CPI eased to about 3.7% year on year. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 3.3% year on year, leaving underlying inflation above the RBA’s target.

Key Macro Drivers

Oil price swings linked to the Iran war added uncertainty for the inflation outlook. This supported expectations that the RBA may keep policy tight, while the US Dollar stayed firm amid the Fed’s cautious stance and ongoing inflation concerns. On the 4-hour chart, the pair remained below the 20- and 100-period SMAs, with both trending lower. The RSI hovered near 40, pointing to a mild bearish tilt rather than strong selling momentum. Resistance sat at 0.6964 and 0.6972. Support was at 0.6959 and 0.6944, with a break below 0.6944 seen as a trigger for further downside. We are seeing the AUD/USD struggle in a tight range as conflicting forces weigh on the pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia is under pressure to remain hawkish, especially with Brent crude trading consistently above $105 a barrel, which is expected to reignite inflation. The RBA has held its cash rate at 4.60% for the last four meetings, signaling it has little room to ease policy soon.

Strategy And Volatility Setup

Australia’s February CPI print of 3.7% offered a brief dip, but this is viewed as temporary against the backdrop of rising energy costs. This underlying inflationary pressure supports the Australian Dollar and prevents a significant sell-off. For now, the market is pricing in zero chance of an RBA rate cut before the third quarter. On the other side, the US Dollar is finding support from a cautious Federal Reserve. The latest US core PCE reading came in at 3.1%, stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, while February non-farm payrolls added a strong 250,000 jobs. This data reinforces the view that the Fed will not rush to cut rates, keeping the Greenback firm. This fundamental clash suggests volatility is likely to increase in the coming weeks. We believe derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a potential breakout, as the pair is coiled tightly below the 0.6972 resistance. Buying put options with a strike price below the 0.6944 support level could be a prudent way to position for a downside move driven by sustained US Dollar strength. When we look back at 2025, we remember the pair trading in a wide band, swinging between roughly 0.6500 and 0.7100 on shifting central bank expectations. That period showed us how quickly sentiment can turn, making long volatility plays attractive right now. The current tight consolidation is unlikely to last, especially with major economic data releases scheduled for early April. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD fell 0.30% to about 1.3370 as the US Dollar rose and risk appetite weakened after reports that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant was hit. Israel and Iran continued exchanging attacks, while the US pursued diplomacy and looked towards possible talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran rejected a US proposal and listed five conditions to end the war. These included stopping aggression, creating mechanisms to prevent the war being reimposed on Iran, guaranteed payment of damages and reparations, ending the war across all fronts, and Iran asserting sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Uk Inflation Stays Elevated

UK inflation held at 3% year-on-year in February, unchanged from January and in line with forecasts. Core CPI rose to 3.2% year-on-year, and both measures remained above the Bank of England’s 2% target. The Bank of England had projected CPI would reach 2% by April, but last week lifted its forecast to 3.5% by mid-2026. A Citi survey showed inflation expectations rising from 3.3% to 5.4%, the largest jump in more than 20 years. Bond yields rose over two days as markets reduced expectations for rate cuts in 2026. Money markets priced 46 basis points of BoE increases, while the Fed was priced for 4 basis points of tightening and no cuts. Technically, GBP/USD stayed below moving averages near 1.3500, with resistance from 1.3869 still in place. Support sat just under 1.3350, with downside levels at 1.3300 and 1.3220.

Volatility And Strategy Implications

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is fueling risk aversion, which typically benefits the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. This geopolitical tension is likely to increase volatility, and we have seen the VIX index, a measure of market fear, climb over 15% in the last week. Traders should anticipate sharp, headline-driven moves and consider strategies that profit from increased price swings. Persistent UK inflation at 3% is complicating the Bank of England’s path, but it is not strengthening the Pound. With UK inflation expectations surging to 5.4%, the highest in over two decades, the focus is on economic instability rather than rate hikes supporting the currency. Meanwhile, the US 2-year Treasury yield remains firm at 5.1%, making the dollar more attractive than pound-denominated assets. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is facing significant pressure below the 1.3500 resistance level. The immediate focus is the rising trendline support just below 1.3350, a level that has held since early this year. A convincing break below this support, similar to the one we saw in the risk-off environment of late 2025, could trigger an accelerated move lower toward the 1.3220 area. Given this environment, bearish option strategies on the GBP/USD seem prudent. Buying put options with strike prices below 1.3350 could offer a way to profit from a breakdown in the coming weeks. At the same time, the strong resistance around 1.3500 makes selling call spreads with strikes above that level a viable strategy to capitalize on the pair’s limited upside potential. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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