India’s HSBC Services PMI dropped to 58 in December, down from 59.1 in November. This indicates a slight slowdown in the growth of the country’s services sector. EUR/USD is expected to trade between 1.1695 and 1.1750. At the same time, Dow Jones futures fell as investors took profits amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Influences

Oil prices have been unstable, affected by the arrest of Maduro. In contrast, the gold market remained strong, hovering near a one-week high due to geopolitical tensions and speculation about possible Federal Reserve rate cuts. Solana saw notable growth, rising above $137 thanks to increased interest in spot ETFs. The asset had positive inflows exceeding $16 million on Monday, the highest recorded since mid-December. Looking ahead, several brokers for 2026 trading are being highlighted for their low spreads and high leverage. FXStreet offers a disclaimer, noting that investing in markets comes with various risks and uncertainties. After the tumultuous market activity in 2025, the new year is showing that volatility is likely to persist. The VIX index, which measures market fear, averaged over 25 in the last quarter of last year, well above its historical average. Derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from price fluctuations, such as long straddles on major indices.

Safe Haven Assets

Geopolitical tensions are bolstering safe-haven assets, especially with rising concerns from Venezuela to the Middle East. As gold approaches $4,465, buying call options allows investors to take advantage of further price increases while clearly outlining their maximum risk. There has been a steady increase in net long positions in gold futures, indicating strong backing from institutional investors. The US Dollar remains weak, a trend that intensified in late 2025 when the Dollar Index dropped more than 3% in just one quarter. Fed funds futures currently suggest a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut by the end of March, which could exert more pressure on the Dollar. In this environment, buying futures or call options on pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD might be an attractive strategy. We are also noticing early signs of slowing growth in India, with the latest services PMI at 58. While this is still a solid number, it represents a significant decline from the rapid growth seen in 2025. This may slow the appreciation of the Indian Rupee, prompting caution for those holding aggressive short positions in the USD/INR pair. A key event coming up is the Supreme Court ruling on presidential tariff powers. The market overwhelmingly expects these powers to be overturned, which would likely lift equities. Traders might consider using inexpensive, out-of-the-money put options as a low-cost hedge against the small but impactful risk of an unexpected ruling. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Gold prices in the Philippines went up on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The price reached 8,493.44 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up from PHP 8,451.43 on Monday. The cost for a tola increased to PHP 99,063.82, compared to PHP 98,575.80 the day before. For 10 grams, the price is PHP 84,932.68, and a troy ounce costs PHP 264,173.00.

Gold Pricing Mechanism

FXStreet sets these prices by converting international values (USD/PHP) to the local currency and updates them daily. These numbers are for reference, and actual local rates may vary slightly. Gold is often viewed as a safe investment during uncertain times, serving as a store of value and protection against inflation. Central banks hold the most gold, diversifying their reserves to strengthen their economies. In 2022, central banks purchased 1,136 tonnes, the highest amount ever recorded in one year. Gold usually has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar and US Treasuries. When the Dollar weakens, gold prices often rise, making it a safe-haven asset. Gold’s price is influenced by geopolitical events, interest rates, and the US Dollar’s strength, commonly quoted as XAU/USD. The recent increase in gold prices is part of a broader trend caused by a weakening US Dollar. The US Dollar Index recently fell below 101.5, marking a significant drop from its highs in late 2025. This makes gold more affordable for those holding other currencies, providing strong support for the precious metal.

Market Trends and Strategic Approaches

We are also noticing strong demand from institutional buyers, which helps maintain stable prices. Recent data from the World Gold Council showed that central banks, especially in emerging markets, continued to buy gold in the last quarter of 2025, continuing a multi-year trend. This consistent purchasing indicates a long-term strategy to move away from the dollar. In the coming weeks, market expectations around interest rates will play a crucial role. After last week’s weaker jobs report, the market now sees a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by mid-year, contrasting sharply with the hawkish outlook in most of 2025. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes more appealing when interest rates are expected to drop. For derivative traders, this environment makes long positions through call options on gold futures appealing. Buying March and April contracts allows traders to benefit from potential price increases while managing risk in a volatile market. The increase in implied volatility signals growing uncertainty about the global economy. Gold’s inverse correlation with risk assets also allows it to serve as a hedge for portfolios. With stock markets appearing overextended after their late 2025 rally, using bull call spreads on gold could be a smart move. This strategy helps protect against a possible stock market correction. We’ve seen similar conditions arise in the second half of 2024. Slowing economic data shifted Fed expectations, leading to a rally in gold. This shows how quickly market sentiment can favor safe-haven assets. The current market suggests a possibility of repeating that scenario. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates went up on Tuesday. The cost per gram hit 527.46 AED, a rise from 524.83 AED on Monday. The price for gold per tola also increased to 6,152.18 AED from 6,121.50 AED the day before. These prices are based on international rates adjusted for the local currency and measurements by FXStreet.

The Role Of Central Banks

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. In 2022, they added 1,136 tonnes, worth $70 billion, to their reserves. Gold prices are affected by geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. When the Dollar is weak, gold prices usually go up, while a strong Dollar can keep prices stable. Gold prices are currently rising, which is a trend we should pay attention to. This small increase indicates larger tensions in the market. For traders dealing with derivatives, it’s time to evaluate the factors that could lead to a breakout. Central bank purchases remained very strong in the last quarters of 2025, supporting the price of gold. The World Gold Council noted that central banks added 800 tonnes in the first three quarters of last year, showing a strong preference for tangible assets. This ongoing demand creates a solid foundation for prices, reducing the risk of sharp declines.

Market Expectations And Futures

Market predictions now include possible interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by mid-2026, which puts pressure on the US Dollar. A weaker Dollar and lower yields generally boost gold prices. This situation makes long positions in gold derivatives especially appealing. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions from 2025 continue to provide a safe-haven appeal for gold. If global conflicts escalate, we can expect significant price increases and higher volatility. Given this, having some gold exposure is a smart strategy. In this environment, consider buying call options on gold futures or ETFs. This approach allows for potential gains while limiting our risk to the premium paid. Slightly out-of-the-money calls with expirations in the next three to six months might offer the best opportunities. For those looking to protect their overall portfolios, gold futures can help offset potential downturns in the equity market. Looking back at the market uncertainties in 2025, portfolios with gold fared much better during risky times. This inverse relationship with risk assets is a key factor to leverage in the coming weeks. We saw a similar situation after the 2008 financial crisis when low interest rates led to a long bull run in gold. Between 2008 and 2011, gold prices more than doubled, illustrating how strong these factors can be. History shows we should be ready for a significant rise in prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently around 98.20, showing a decline as tensions between the US and Venezuela lessen. This index reflects the US Dollar’s value compared to six major currencies and has dropped over the last two trading sessions. A recent US military strike in Venezuela resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro has denied charges of narco-terrorism from the US, which could lead to serious legal outcomes.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Decline

In December 2025, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024. This indicates ongoing shrinkage in US manufacturing, with decreases in both production and inventory. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed out that inflation remains elevated and unemployment could rise. Traders are closely examining upcoming economic data, especially the Nonfarm Payrolls report expected to show a 55,000 job increase. The US Dollar is the world’s most traded currency, making up over 88% of foreign exchange transactions in 2022. Its value is influenced by decisions from the Federal Reserve and various economic indicators. When the Fed engages in quantitative easing, the US Dollar weakens. In contrast, quantitative tightening has the opposite effect, strengthening the Dollar. The Fed employs these strategies to ensure economic stability and manage employment levels.

US Dollar Index Trends

As the US Dollar Index weakens around the 98.20 mark, the immediate concerns from the US-Venezuela conflict have subsided. The market has fully adjusted to last weekend’s events, shifting our focus back to the fundamental US economic data. The outlook for the dollar seems increasingly weak. Manufacturing activity has contracted for three consecutive months, with the December 2025 ISM PMI dropping to 47.9. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report released on January 2nd revealed only 30,000 new jobs added—far below the expected 55,000—confirming a slowing labor market. This disappointing data supports Kashkari’s recent statements that the policy rate is close to neutral and unemployment may rise. As a result, futures markets are now anticipating no further rate hikes in 2026, with the CME FedWatch Tool suggesting almost a 40% chance of a rate cut by the third quarter. This marks a notable change from just a month ago when there was an expectation for rates to remain steady. For those trading derivatives, this environment hints at rising implied volatility in currency markets. The combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation—Core PCE was last reported at 3.8% for November 2025—creates uncertainty regarding the Fed’s future actions. Strategies like straddles or strangles on major pairs like EUR/USD could be beneficial as they may profit from larger price movements in the weeks ahead. Currently, the most likely direction for the dollar appears to be downside. We might consider buying call options on currencies such as the Euro and Australian Dollar, or purchasing puts on the US Dollar Index. The weak Nonfarm Payrolls data gives us more confidence to expect a decline in the Greenback, aiming for a break below the 98.00 support level on the DXY. The next important event will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December 2025, which is set to be released next week. If inflation comes in lower than expected, it would strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts and potentially accelerate the Dollar’s decline. On the other hand, a surprisingly high figure could heighten fears of stagflation and might lead to a sharp, volatile market reaction as investors reconsider the Fed’s challenging situation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The NZD/USD pair rose slightly to around 0.5800 during Tuesday’s Asian session. This movement occurred after US manufacturing activity fell more than expected in December. The US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3, marking a ten-month decline. Geopolitical tensions may boost safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar, which could limit any further gains for the NZD/USD pair. Additionally, growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence could put downward pressure on the USD. Traders are looking at the US employment report to guide the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.

Reserve Bank Of New Zealand And Economic Factors

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims for inflation between 1% and 3% and adjusts interest rates accordingly. The New Zealand Dollar is significantly influenced by high dairy prices and China’s economic performance, as New Zealand relies heavily on them. The New Zealand Dollar usually performs well during positive market conditions but weakens when there’s economic uncertainty. Key economic data, such as growth and employment figures, are vital for determining the NZD’s value. This data can also affect RBNZ policies and draw foreign investments. During unstable markets, investors often seek safer assets, which can negatively impact the NZD. The recent US manufacturing data, indicating a continued contraction for the tenth month, is the primary reason for the US Dollar’s weakness. This trend has persisted throughout 2025, with the ISM PMI often failing to remain above the 50-point level. This may be a short-term advantage for the NZD/USD pair, making short-dated call options appealing if prices rise above 0.5800.

US Employment Report And Federal Reserve Concerns

Attention is now focused on this Friday’s US employment report for December 2025, which may cause significant market movement. A poor jobs report could raise recession fears and heighten expectations for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a strong report, similar to December 2024’s, might quickly reverse the dollar’s decline. Buying straddles on the NZD/USD pair before this announcement could be a smart way to profit from potential price swings. Uncertainty about who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair is another factor likely to pressure the dollar in the coming months. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May, if a new nominee supports significantly lower interest rates, it might create a long-term bearish outlook for the US Dollar. We find value in positioning for this shift by considering longer-dated call options on NZD/USD that expire in the second or third quarter of this year. However, the geopolitical situation in Venezuela brings a conflicting dynamic that could support the US Dollar. Increased tensions often lead to safety-seeking behavior, which benefits the dollar and may limit any rally in the NZD/USD. This interplay between weak economic data and geopolitical risks suggests that implied volatility will stay high, making options pricier but also more relevant. On the New Zealand front, there are some encouraging signs that support the strength of the Kiwi. Recent Caixin PMI figures from China, released last week, showed a slight expansion at 50.8, which is positive news for New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Furthermore, the latest Global Dairy Trade auction revealed a 1.2% increase in prices, strengthening the fundamental support for the currency. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

EUR/USD is on the rise, currently trading at about 1.1735, showing a daily gain of 0.10%. This increase is driven by a weaker USD, influenced by expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve and a steady outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates. Technical indicators suggest the EUR/USD could continue to climb, having surpassed the 1.1735 level, aligning with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD and RSI are both pointing towards potential strength, with the next resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

The Euro and ECB Decisions

The Euro, used by 20 countries in the Eurozone, makes up 31% of global forex transactions. EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair, accounting for 30% of transactions. ECB decisions greatly impact the Euro’s value by managing interest rates to maintain price stability. Inflation data plays a crucial role in shaping ECB policy, influencing the Euro’s value through interest rate adjustments. Economic indicators, like GDP and PMIs, can strengthen the Euro, while trade balance data reflects export demand and currency valuation. Haresh Menghani, a market analyst with over ten years of experience, emphasizes these factors. Reflecting on the analysis from 2025, the expectation for a stronger EUR/USD was based on the differing outlooks between a dovish Fed and a more stable ECB. This trend has largely unfolded over recent months, especially after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points late last year due to slowing growth.

Trading Strategies and Considerations

Recent data supports this view. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2025 showed a gain of only 90,000 jobs, falling short of expectations. This has intensified market beliefs that the Fed may pursue further easing in the first half of this year. As a result, the US Dollar Index has dropped from its 2025 highs and is now around 101.50. In the Eurozone, the ECB has held steady as inflation remains high. The final Consumer Price Index for December 2025 was 2.4%, above the central bank’s target, making rate cuts unlikely soon. The EUR/USD pair, previously struggling around the 1.1735 level, has since increased and is now stabilizing near 1.2150. With much of this policy divergence already reflected in the market, simply buying call options has become costly due to higher implied volatility. Traders should be wary of paying high premiums for basic bets. A more cautious strategy for the coming weeks would involve credit spreads, such as selling out-of-the-money put spreads. This allows traders to earn a premium while betting that the pair will stay above a critical level, like the 1.2000 mark. This method capitalizes on the upward trend without needing a sharp, ongoing rally. It’s also essential to stay alert for upcoming economic data that could disrupt this trend. Strong US retail sales or inflation reports could cause the market to reassess the Fed’s dovish stance, leading to a quick drop in EUR/USD. Thus, clearly defining risk for any bullish positions is crucial in the current climate. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Anticipating US Economic Data

Market participants are looking forward to key US economic data releases, especially the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This report is predicted to show an increase of 55,000 jobs. The Canadian Dollar may face pressure due to US and global expectations regarding access to Venezuela’s oil reserves. This situation could impact the demand for Canadian oil and raise questions about future Venezuelan oil output and its effect on prices. The movements of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) depend on several factors, including the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions, oil prices, and macroeconomic data. Important indicators such as GDP, inflation, and employment play a significant role. A strong economy usually leads to possible interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, which supports the CAD. In contrast, weak data can cause the CAD to lose value. Currently, the USD/CAD is hovering around 1.3760, caught between two opposing trends. Recent US ISM manufacturing data from December 2025 indicates a faster contraction, likely weakening the US dollar. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar faces considerable pressure from geopolitical events affecting oil prices. A significant development is the new access to Venezuelan crude oil. This situation continues to impact the oil market negatively. WTI crude has dropped over 9% since mid-December 2025 and is now priced near $68 a barrel. The new interim government in Caracas aims to restore production to 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. This change in supply is a major challenge for the Canadian dollar.

Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls Report

The main focus this week is the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which might lead to a big market move. The consensus forecast suggests a modest increase of 55,000 jobs, following a previous downward revision of November 2025 numbers. This indicates that the US economy is slowing down significantly. If the report shows much weaker numbers than expected, it could cause the US dollar to drop temporarily and push USD/CAD down to the 1.3700 level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Silver prices rose to about $76.55 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. This increase is due to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets following US actions against Venezuela’s President, Nicolas Maduro. The situation is aggravated by US President Trump’s warning of possible military action in Venezuela. This legal and geopolitical tension is affecting the markets, especially with Silver trading positively around $76.55.

US Interest Rate Expectations

Expectations of US interest rate cuts may further influence Silver prices. Financial markets anticipate two quarter-point reductions from the US Federal Reserve by 2026, which could help the non-yielding precious metal. Traders are also looking ahead to the US jobs report coming out this Friday. An expected increase of 55,000 Nonfarm Payrolls and a slight dip in unemployment to 4.5% could impact Fed policies and the strength of the US Dollar. WTI Oil is a high-quality Crude Oil sourced in the US and is heavily influenced by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. Weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA affect prices, with inventory drops signifying higher demand. OPEC’s production decisions, particularly quota changes, can also sway WTI Oil prices. The recent US military action in Venezuela has created significant market uncertainty, leading to a flight-to-safety trend. We see this reflected in Silver’s rise above $76.50 as traders seek safe-haven assets. In the upcoming weeks, we anticipate volatility as a key theme, with derivatives being the best way to navigate this environment.

Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical Risks

The initial rise in Silver suggests that traders might consider buying call options to take advantage of a potential escalation. Implied volatility for silver options has reached a 6-month high, hitting 32% this morning, indicating larger-than-usual price swings. This strategy reduces risk while allowing for upside potential driven by geopolitical concerns. However, a more significant focus is on crude oil. Venezuela, an OPEC member, had increased production to nearly 950,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, and that supply is now at risk. Recall that oil prices spiked over 15% within days during the initial phase of the Middle East conflict in 2023, and we could see a similar effect on WTI prices. These geopolitical risks come at a time when the market is already tightening. The latest EIA report showed an unexpected drop of 3.1 million barrels in US crude inventories last week. We believe taking long positions in WTI futures or buying call spreads on crude is a wise strategy to prepare for a potential supply shock. A rise towards $100 per barrel is plausible if US military involvement increases. We should also keep an eye on this Friday’s US jobs report, which could counter the commodity rally. Although markets are forecasting Fed rate cuts for 2026, a strong jobs number significantly above the anticipated 55,000 could boost the US Dollar. This would pose challenges for both silver and oil, possibly leading to better entry points or reasons to take profits. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0173 for Tuesday’s trading. This is a small drop from the previous rate of 7.0230 and is higher than the Reuters estimate of 6.9730. The PBOC is a state-owned bank that focuses on keeping prices stable and supporting economic growth. Its management is significantly influenced by key figures in the Chinese Communist Party.

Monetary Policy Tools

The bank uses several monetary tools, such as the seven-day Reverse Repo Rate, the Medium-term Lending Facility, and the Reserve Requirement Ratio. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s key interest rate, directly impacting loan market rates and the exchange rate of the Renminbi. Since 2014, China has allowed private banks, although they make up a small part of the financial system. The largest digital lenders include WeBank and MYbank, backed by Tencent and Ant Group. Various markets are showing changes, with commodities like gold and the yen reacting to shifts in the global economy. Currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD are fluctuating due to financial changes and geopolitical events. On January 6, 2026, the PBOC indicated a preference for a stronger yuan by lowering the USD/CNY reference rate to 7.0173. However, this move is more cautious than market expectations, reflecting the bank’s intention to manage the yuan’s appreciation and maintain stability as the economy strengthens. This action is supported by recent positive economic data. China’s official manufacturing PMI for December 2025 unexpectedly rose to 50.6, signaling the third month of growth and a stabilizing industrial sector. Additionally, China’s trade surplus grew by 3.2% in the last quarter of 2025, reinforcing the case for a stronger currency.

Market Context and Trading Strategies

The broader market context also plays a role, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping over 2% since the Federal Reserve’s shift in policy in November 2025. This general weakness in the dollar is putting upward pressure on most major currencies, including the yuan. Today’s action by the PBOC seems to acknowledge these domestic and global influences. For derivative traders, this presents an opportunity to position for a slow, steady appreciation of the offshore yuan (CNH). Instead of taking on the risk of an outright short position in USD/CNH, traders might consider selling out-of-the-money call options on USD/CNH to generate premium from the expected range-bound decline. This strategy leverages the gradual downward trend and the low implied volatility characteristic of a managed currency. In 2021, a similar managed appreciation pattern occurred. At that time, the PBOC used its daily fixes to temper bullish sentiment on the yuan while still allowing it to strengthen gradually due to strong exports and capital inflows. The current situation resembles that strategy, suggesting that a slow and stable approach is more likely to be successful than betting on sudden, volatile movements. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now