Lead by big tech, US stock advanced on Friday and notched the best month since 2020. Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. soared as higher revenues from the pair’s iconic powerhouses relieved fears of profit slowdown on profit growth. Despite some concerning indications from economic indicators, the earnings season as a whole has outperformed expectations, with over 75% of S&P500 corporations reporting results that exceeded analyst expectations. Investors cannot resist but predict that Corporate America will be able to weather the storm of inflation, massive rate hikes, and slowing economic growth.

However, two key US price indexes reported higher than forecast, especially the personal consumption expenditures index, which Federal Reserve highly focused on, climbing at the fastest pace since 2005. Overall, the rebound of stocks this month has not yet convinced investors that a new bull market has begun.

Due to a stronger-than-expected earnings season, the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday. The S&P500 increased 1.42% daily, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% daily. Energy and Consumers Discretion have the best performance of all sectors, increasing by 4.51% and 4.27%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.8% on Friday, while the MSCI World index increased by 1.2%.

Main Pairs Movement

On Friday, the US dollar fell to a three-week low below 105.6 as speculation swirled over a possible recession in the wake of conflicting economic data. The DXY index maintained its bearish trend and dropped to a three-week low during the first half of the trading day, before rebounding to a daily high over 106.6 during the middle of the European trading session. Inflation in the United States remained inexorable in June, according to the US price index, and an increase in interest rates is not inconceivable.

The GBPUSD was steady on Friday, losing 0.07%. The cables witnessed some new transactions and reached a daily high level above 1.224 during the Asia trading session amid a weak US dollar across the board. However, the cables fell to a daily low level below 1.207 following the release of a strong US Personal Consumption Expenditures report ahead of the New York trading session. During the middle of the Asia session, EURUSD reached a daily high above 1.025 before falling to a low below 1.015. The pair increased by 0.23% on the day.

Gold climbed 0.58% daily and is now firmly established at over $1760 as US yields erase prior gains and inflation fears. In the meantime, WTI crude oil gained bullish momentum throughout the late Asian session and surpassed $99 per barrel on Friday.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold gathers bullish move following a dip earlier in the session as the US yields turn south. From the technical perspective, gold continues to build its upside momentum beyond the 1746 support zone and gains positive traction for the third consecutive day on Friday at the time of writing. The four-hour outlook is bullish as gold remains way above the ascending trend line. Despite the RSI indicator having reached beyond the overbought territory, the positive MACD seems to continue to support the bulls. As long as gold sustains its momentum above the trend line, its positive outlook remains unchanged. To the upside, the breakout of the immediate hurdle of 1766 would give gold another rally.

Resistance: 1766, 1786, 1811

Support: 1746, 1721, 1680

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY plunges badly to near 133.00 as the US dollar confronts selling pressure following the fading aggressive Fed tightening expectations. From the technical perspective, it is now seen as in correction to the four-hour outlook up trend. Since USDJPY has officially broken the bullish channel, the bias becomes a downside. Strong support is expected to see at 132.50 for the rebound. A breakout of the support level of 132.50 would accelerate the downside, heading further south. For now, for the bull to reclaim its position, USDJPY needs to at least rise above 135.94.

Resistance: 134.13, 135.13, 135.94

Support: 132.50

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD edges higher near 1.0200 as the US dollar loses traction. From the technical aspect, the euro dollar starts a fresh recovery against the dollar after hitting the midline of the Bollinger band and the 20 Simple Moving Average. EURUSD looks to oscillate in the range of 1.0109- 1.0284 on the four-hour chart. The outlook of EURUSD is currently neutral as the RSI indicator hovers around the midline and the MACD remains neutral. On the upside, the resistance of 1.0284 would be the first major hurdle to break to begin the bullish move of the euro dollar. On the contrary, if EURUSD falls below 1.0109, the pair might decline towards the 0.9952 level.

Resistance: 1.0284, 1.0362, 1.0459

Support: 1.0109, 0.9952

Economic Data

US stock rallied on Thursday, preserving its bullish momentum and climbing to a seven-week high as investors pared their bets on Fed’s aggressively rate hikes amid the weak economic data. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q2 showed that the economy entered a technical recession after contracting by 0.9%. However, investors remained their speculation that the Federal Reserve could reduce the pace of monetary tightening despite the data showing that the economy is losing momentum.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell also said on Wednesday that rate hikes would slow at one point and he shed quite some light on the future of monetary policy. Inflation measures will likely fall amid the slowing economy, which might bring the end of the tightening cycle nearer. In the Eurozone, Germany’s inflation data flashed mixed signals as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 7.5% YoY but the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) climbed to 8.5% yearly.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both advanced on Thursday as the dismal economic data eased the expectation for aggressively rate hikes by the Fed. The S&P 500 was up 1.2% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced with a 1.0% gain for the day. Ten out of eleven sectors stayed in positive territory as the Real Estate and the Utilities sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 3.70% and 3.53%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed the least with a 0.9% gain on Thursday and the MSCI World index rose 1.3% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar declined on Thursday, remaining under selling pressure and retreated toward the 106.1 level as the safe-haven assets performed better against the greenback yesterday. The DXY witnessed some buying and touched a daily top near the 107 mark during the European session, but then failed to preserve its upside traction meanwhile surrendered most of its daily gains. The market’s expectations of no more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed and the release of weaker US Q2 Gross Domestic Product data both exerted bearish pressure on the US dollar.

GBP/USD edged higher with a 0.18% gain on Thursday amid a weaker US dollar across the board. However, the political jitters in the UK and Brexit woes might limit the upside for the cable. The GBP/USD pair dropped to a daily low below 1.211 level in the late European session, then regained upside traction to recover most of its daily losses. Meanwhile, EUR/USD failed to overcome recent losses and remained under bearish pressure after dropping to a daily low below 1.012 level in the European session. The pair was up almost 0.05% for the day.

Gold surged with a 1.25% gain for the day after refreshing its daily high above the $1756 mark in the late US trading session, as the slowing economy and the renewed weakness in the greenback both lend strong support to the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI oil failed to preserve its upside traction and retreated to the $97 area on Thursday.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

The metal, XAUUSD, gathers bullish momentum for the second day after the US data showed that the economy contracted in the second quarter, thus boosting XAUUSD. From the technical perspective, XAUUSD builds on the overnight upside rebound above the resistance of 1748. The upward breakout gained some follow-through traction on Thursday. The four-hour outlook turns bullish as XAUUSD lands within the upper bounce of the Bollinger band and the RSI indicator hovers within the positive territory. XAUUSD might consolidate slightly above and below 1748 as the RSI has reached the overbought condition. Stably sustaining above the level would support XAUUSD’s upside.

Resistance: 1769, 1790, 1815

Support: 1748, 1722, 1680

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY falls sharply following the less hawkish Fed. From the technical perspective, USDJPY surrenders after failing to defend the crucial support level of 136.26 in the early Asian session. The intraday decline has pushed USDJPY towards the 0% Fib. Retracement of 134.34. The outlook of USDJPY becomes bearish as the pair officially trades below the bullish channel. In order to reclaim its upside stance, USDJPY needs to at least climb above 136.26. On the contrary, the breakout of the immediate support of 134.34 would confirm another downside momentum toward 131.00.

Resistance: 134.75, 136.52, 137.06, 137.61

Support: 134.34

USDCAD (4-Hour Chart)

USDCAD makes a meaningful recovery after hitting the support level of 1.2795. The outlook of USDCAD remains bearish as the pair continues to trade below the descending trend line. In the meantime, the RSI stays in the negative territory, suggesting that buyers are on the sideline. Failure to defend the immediate level of 1.2795 would accelerate the downside. On the flip side, USDCAD needs to trade above the immediate hurdle of 1.2896 in order to claim its bullish stance.

Resistance: 1.2896, 1.2959, 1.3009

Support: 1.2795

Economic Data

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In response to Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s less hawkish remarks after the central bank’s monetary policy decision, US stocks jumped on Wednesday, regaining upside momentum and making a significant return. Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve stated that it had increased the main benchmark rate by 75 basis points to a range of 2.25 to 2.5%, which was in line with market expectations and imposed significant downward pressure on the US currency.

In the news conference, Powell also refuted the notion that the United States is in a recession, stating that the Federal Reserve is moving swiftly to combat inflation. The market’s fears of a recession have been allayed by the comments, which have worked as a tailwind for the equities markets. Fears of an energy crisis have increased in the Eurozone as a result of the German gas regulator’s statement that energy costs could increase considerably owing to the shutdown of the main Russian gas pipeline.

On Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed, as about 85% of S&P 500 companies rose and the Nasdaq 100 experienced its greatest one-day surge since November 2020. The S&P 500 increased by 2.6% on a daily basis, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.4%. The Communication Services and Information Technology sectors performed the best among all categories, growing 5.11% and 4.29%, respectively. All eleven sectors remained in positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 gained the most on Wednesday with a 4.3% increase, while the MSCI World index advanced 1.9% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

Following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the dollar declined. As anticipated, the central bank upped the benchmark rate. Following the FOMC Press Conference, DXY dropped below 106.4. In addition to the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the market responded to chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in which he stated that he did not foresee a recession and sought to allay congress’ recession fears. Thursday’s announcement of the US’s GDP estimate for the second quarter will also be closely monitored by investors.

Wednesday saw a 1.08% increase in GBP/USD due to a lower US currency. Investors interpreted the Federal Reserve’s consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes and admission that production and spending slowed as “dovish.” After the FOMC meeting, the pound exceeds 1,218. EUR/USD surpassed 1.022 as well. Despite the intensifying oil crisis, cable grew 0.82%.

As a result of the Fed’s restrained comments on Wednesday, gold reached a day high above $1740. WTI recovered positive momentum and surpassed $97.6 per barrel.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold climbs above 1720 with an initial reaction to the US Fed, whose decision to raise the interest rates by 75 basis points as expected. Technically speaking, gold still trades in the tight range above and below 1722. In the meantime, gold remains on the midline of the Bollinger band, showing its directionlessness; however, the RSI indicator at the moment skews to the upside, suggesting that the near-term outlook turns bullish. On the downside, if gold falls below 1722, then its momentum would turn bearish as it would trade within the lower bounce of the Bollinger band.

Resistance: 1722, 1748, 1769

Support: 1680.99

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY loses traction as the Fed signals that it could slow the pace of rate hikes, causing the greenback to lose interest. From the technical perspective, despite the downward price action, USDJPY remains bullish as it stays within the ascending channel as well as the 20 Simple Moving Average. As long as USDJPY can stay above 136.52 and the bullish channel, then the outlook of the pair remains upside. On the flip side, a breakout of 136.52 would imply that the bearish momentum is in charge, attracting some follow-through sellers. The RSI indicator has skewed to the south, signalling that the breakout is possible.

Resistance: 136.52, 137.06, 137.61

Support: 136.84, 134.75

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD loses traction in the second half of the day on Wednesday as the greenback recovers ahead of the FOMC meeting. From the technical perspective, EURUSD currently trades slightly above the support of 1.0109. The pair has oscillated in the range of 1.0109- 1.0284 since mid-July. Whether EURUSD can hold above the support level would be a turning point to determine the momentum of the pair. If EURUSD falls below the support, then it will attract some follow-through sellers, causing the pair toward further south. The RSI indicator continues to trade within the negative territory, implying that buyers are still on the sideline.

Resistance: 1.0205, 1.0284, 1.0362

Support: 1.0109, 0.9952

Economic Data

Tuesday’s decline in US stocks was precipitated by deteriorating economic conditions, worries of a recession, and sky-high inflation. The dismal outlook of the world’s largest retailer, Walmart Inc., illustrates the effects of inflationary pressures on consumer spending. Concerns over a faltering global economy prompted investors to anticipate another 75-basis-point increase before to a widely anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with the total 150-bps interest rate spike in June and July reaching the highest level since the early 1980s.

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, and Texas Instruments Inc. rose after earnings, but Microsoft fell due to its slowest revenue growth since 2020. In addition, the sales of McDonald’s Corp. and Coca-Cola Co. exceed expectations, and Coinbase Global Inc. is under investigation in the United States for allegedly allowing Americans to trade digital assets that should have been registered as securities, according to three individuals familiar with the situation.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both dipped on Tuesday as a result of the Fed’s threat to raise interest rates on Wednesday, recession fears, and disappointing earnings reports. The S&P 500 plummeted 1.19% daily, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.7%. Eight of eleven sectors remained in the red, with Consumer Discretion and Communication Services having the worst performance of all categories, falling 3.38% and 2.20%, respectively. In the meantime, the Nasdaq 100 sank 2% on Tuesday, while the MSCI world index declined 0.9%.

Main Pairs Movement

As yesterday’s financial markets were dominated by aversion to risk, the US dollar rose on Tuesday, surrounded by bullish momentum, and approached the 107.30 level. During the first part of the trading day, the DXY index fluctuated in a range between 106.2 and 106.5. It then began to experience considerable purchasing pressure and reached a day high of over 107.2 during the US trading session. Escalating fears of economic slowdown in the Eurozone and the Russia-related energy crisis continued to boost demand for the safe-haven dollar, as the Russian gas giant Gazprom is supplying roughly 20% of its normal natural gas supply. The market’s attention will now move to the Fed’s monetary policy statements.

The GBP/USD exchange rate declined by 0.12% on Tuesday as the US dollar strengthened across the board. Investors continue to be anxious about the possibility of a worldwide recession, which has eclipsed the likelihood of a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Bank of England in August. In the late European session, the GBP/USD pair plummeted to a daily low below the 1.197 level before regaining upward momentum to recover the majority of its daily losses. In the meantime, EUR/USD sustained significant losses yesterday and retested its daily low near 1.010 throughout the US trading session. EU nations also agreed to limit gas consumption during the upcoming winter. The pair fell over 1% for the day.

As investors await additional direction from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, gold was little changed with a 0.10% loss for the day after moving sideways in a narrow range below $1719 in the late US trading session. The White House stated on Tuesday that it would sell 20 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, causing WTI oil prices to drop to around $95 per barrel.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold does a little technical progress, consolidating around 1722.66 on Tuesday. From the technical perspective, the four-hour outlook is neutral-to-bearish. Gold has fallen below the midline of the Bollinger Band and the 20 Simple Moving Average, suggesting that bears are in the driver’s seat. Failure to maintain above the resistance level of 1722.66 would bring the pair toward the next support of 1680.99. On the flip side, if gold can move upward above the midline, then the bullish momentum might be able to gain traction on the four-hour chart. The RSI indicator still trades around the midline, reflecting the absence of directional strength. Further price action eyes on the FOMC meeting.

Resistance: 1722, 1748, 1769

Support: 1680.99

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY surpasses 136.00 as the US dollar regains positive traction on Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting. Technically speaking, USDJPY performs a meaningful rebound after hitting the lower band of the ascending channel. USDJPY has breached the psychological resistance of 136.00, suggesting that USDJPY resumes its bid mood. USDJPY attracts some buyers near 136.00, thus the RSI indicator has a skewed upside. The pair is expected to move further north as the RSI has way far from overbought, implying that there are rooms for the pair to ascend. On the flip side, if the pair falls below the bullish channel, then it will lose some positive momentum in the near- term

Resistance: 136.62, 137.06, 137.61

Support: 136.84, 134.75

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD tumbles towards 1.0100 amid the European gas crisis and fears of a global recession. From the technical perspective, EURUSD is trading at its lowest in a week near the support level of 1.0109. The outlook of the currency pair turns downside as the bearish double-top trading pattern has been formed. In the meantime, the four-hour chart favours a downside extension as EURUSD has breached below the 20 Simple Moving Average. Failure to maintain above 1.0109 would confirm another downside momentum. Moreover, technical indicators, both the RSI and the MACD gain downward traction, trading within the negative regions.

Resistance: 1.0205, 1.0284, 1.0362

Support: 1.0109, 0.9952

Economic Data

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Amidst the lowest intraday volatility and volume of the year and ahead of this week’s crucial Fed meeting, US stocks inched up on Monday amid a turbulent session. Large technology firms remained under bearish pressure as investors anticipate negative earnings report news. Despite recession fears, investors are awaiting the conclusion of Wednesday’s critical FOMC monetary policy meeting, which is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. However, investors’ scepticism that the Federal Reserve can control inflation without triggering a recession could continue to dampen market sentiment. In the Eurozone, the German Ifo Business Climate Index sank to a two-year low of 88.6 in July, which was worse than expected and reflected the concern of a gas crisis among German businesses.

Monday was a positive day for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors awaited earnings announcements from technology giants amid warnings from a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 increased by 0.1% daily, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.3%. The Energy and Utilities sectors performed the best among all categories, advancing 3.71 % and 1.26%, respectively. Eight of eleven sectors remained in positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 fell the most on Monday with a loss of 0.5%, while the MSCI World index remained relatively unchanged.

Main Pairs Movement

On Monday, the US dollar fell below the 106.30 level, since it is largely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 75 basis points following its meeting on Wednesday. The DXY index fell the most on Monday, reaching a daily low of 106.2, before rebounding to surpass 106.6 during the US session. In addition to rate hikes, structural characteristics of the U.S. economy, particularly improved energy resilience, have propelled the dollar to multi-year highs.

GBP/USD increased by 0.37% on Monday, despite the US dollar’s weakness and the unpredictability of UK politics. At the start of the week, the cable pairs plummeted to a daily low of roughly 1.196, before gaining bullish momentum to surpass 1.208 during the late Asia session. Similarly, EUR/USD fell to a level of 1.018 at the start of yesterday and then rallied to a day high at 1.026. The pairings remain flat for the day as traders anticipate fresh hints, the US CB consumer confidence report for July and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Gold began the week with a 0.46% loss, falling under intense selling pressure in late Asia and at the start of the US trading session when XAUUSD hit a daily low below the $1715 level. Awaiting the Fed’s interest rate policy decision, the price trend has now shifted to neutral. On Monday, WTI oil prices increased by 2.11% and reached almost $96.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold initially attempted to rally early Monday, but turned around to show signs of weakness. Gold hovers around the $1,715 region during the American trading session. From the technical perspective, the intraday decline brings gold below the resistance of $1,722; the four-hour outlook turns downside following the trading pattern of the double-bottom formation. The RSI indicator has turned southward, suggesting that buyers are on the sideline and sellers are back in the market. If gold breaks below the midline of the Bollinger band, gold is likely to see further downward pressure and an acceleration of the downside. In order to regain positive traction, gold needs to climb above $1,722.

Resistance: 1722, 1748, 1769

Support: 1680.99

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY turns upside as the US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session. From the technical aspect, the overall outlook of USDJPY is back to bullish after the pair trades within the ascending channel. The recovery frankly suggests that the corrective phase comes to an end. The acceptance above 136.52 would confirm the bullish stance of the pair. The upside is also supported by the RSI indicator, which turns upward, attracting some follow-through buyers back into the market. On the contrary, failure to stand above 136.52 and trade within the ascending channel would make the currency pair back in a bearish mood.

Resistance: 136.52, 137.06, 137.61

Support: 136.84, 134.75

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD has gone back and forth during the course of sessions on Monday as markets continue to carefully monitor ahead of the FOMC meeting. Technically speaking, EURUSD shows that it keeps struggling to overcome the 20 SMA. The near-term outlook of EURUSD is neutral-to-bullish as the RSI slightly skews to the north while the MACD indicator tends to be bullish. The upside momentum remains limited if the pair cannot overcome the resistance of 1.0284, breaching the consolidation. On the flip side, if the EURUSD declines below the current support of 1.0205, then the outlook would turn bearish on the four-hour chart. Further price movement eyes on the FOMC meeting later this week.

Resistance: 1.0284, 1.0362

Support: 1.0284, 1.0109, 0.9952

Economic Data

All eyes will be on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week for insights into upcoming interest rates hikes after annual inflation hit a 4-decade high of 9.1% in June.

US policymakers are anticipating continued price surges and are backing a 50-75 basis points hike. Officials say the economic outlook warrants moving to a restrictive policy stance, and warned that tighter measures will be imposed if inflation pressures persist.

Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) releasing Thursday is expected to edge up 0.8-0.9% in the second quarter. This positive outlook follows a fall of 1.6% in Q1, the first contraction since the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, weighed down by record trade deficits, supply constraints, worker shortages, and high inflation.

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for June will also be announced this week, predicted at a 0.9% rise.

Australia is expecting yet another bump in its quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on the backs of soaring fuel prices and surging building costs. Annual inflation rate saw a 5.1% spike in the first quarter, marking its highest reading since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in the early 2000s.

Market Analysis

Due to dismal results from social-media companies and weak economic data, US stocks dropped on Friday, failing to maintain the upward momentum and ending a three-day rise. Snap Inc.’s disappointing performance and Twitter Inc.’s weaker-than-anticipated sales figure have heightened concerns about online ad spending, which is also one of the mounting indications that technology businesses are preparing for a recession.

The Fed meeting this week will be the primary focus for investors, as market sentiment remains fragile in the face of higher inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, and fears of a recession, despite market participants’ expectations that the Fed will take a more measured approach to tighten monetary policy. In the Eurozone, economic activity in Germany’s private sector decreased in early July, according to statistics released on Friday, while the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI went below 50 for the first time in more than two years. The economy of the eurozone is likely to fall in the third quarter, as corporate activity has begun to decline.

Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average sank on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling for the first time in four days due to recession fears and disappointing tech company reports. The S&P 500 decreased by 0.9% on a daily basis, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.4%. Eight of eleven sectors remained in negative territory, with the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors losing 4.34 % and 1.38 %, respectively, as the poorest performers. The Nasdaq 100 dropped the most on Friday, falling 1.8%, while the MSCI World index dropped 0.5%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar was little changed on Friday, as it faced additional selling pressure and failed to rise above the 107.3 mark in response to data indicating a decline in early July private sector business activity. After the release of the German Manufacturing PMI, the DXY index inched upward and reached a daily high, but then began to experience fresh selling to extend its daily losses below the 106.2 mark. In July, the US S&P Services PMI fell to 47, which was well below the market’s forecast of 52.6 and indicated a worrying downturn in the economy.

The GBP/USD currency rate increased by 0.16 % on Friday after renewed dollar weakness. In terms of economic data, UK Retail Sales decreased by 5.8 % year-over-year in June, but better-than-expected UK PMIs have relieved some pressure on the Bank of England (BoE). At the start of the European session, the GBP/USD pair plummeted to a daily low below the 1.193 level before regaining upward momentum to recoup all of its daily losses. During the initial half of the day, EUR/USD was surrounded by bearish momentum and weighed down by dismal German PMI data. The pair declined by over 0.15 % for the day.

Gold climbed 0.55 % on the day after reaching a daily high above $1738 in the early US trading session, as the precious metal attracted new buyers in response to a strong decline in US government yields. Meanwhile, WTI oil maintained its downward momentum and fell to around $95 per barrel on Friday, as the reopening of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline weighed on oil prices.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold surpasses $1,725 at the time of this Friday’s writing. As a result of the poor PMI data, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield falls by more than 4% every day, reducing the demand for the US dollar. After reaching the crucial support level of $1,680, gold performs a good technical recovery. Due to the fact that the RSI has not yet reached overbought territory and the MACD is continuing to provide support, gold may be able to overcome the $1,732 resistance level. The acceptance of the midpoint of the Bollinger band would protect the bulls of gold.

Resistance: 1732.58, 1756.40, 1779.70

Support: 1680.99

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

Following the release of US economic statistics, USDJPY was able to fall below 136,000 during the American session. The USDJPY reached its lowest level in two weeks. The intraday bias is now bearish from a technical standpoint, as the pair has breached the bullish channel. The pair is about to produce a four-hour closing price below the channel and the 136.28 resistance level. Immediate support is located at 135.67, followed by the zone at 134.52. To erase the negative tone, the U.S. dollar must climb back above 136.28.

Resistance: 136.28, 136.95, 137.53

Support: 135.67, 134.52

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

After US statistics, the EURUSD has extended its rebound during the American trading day. From a technical standpoint, EURUSD recovers after reaching the lower Bollinger Band band and the 20 Simple Moving Average. The bulls had pushed EURUSD over 1.0205 resistance at the time of writing, indicating a positive change on the four-hour chart. If EURUSD is able to sustain its upward momentum into the next barrier around 1.0284, the probable double-bottom formation will indicate a bullish bias for the pair. Currently, the RSI indicator is trading within the positive region, which supports the upside. Contrariwise, an intraday closing below 1.0205 could pave the way for a decline towards parity. Next week’s FOMC meeting will likely influence future price movements.

Resistance: 1.0284, 1.0362, 1.0459

Support: 1.0205, 1.0109

Economic Data

The European Central Bank agreed to increase interest rates by 50 basis points, the first increase in almost a decade, in response to increasing inflation and the ongoing conflict with Russia. In addition, Gazprom restored gas shipments to the EU via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, giving extra support for EUR purchasers.

In the US, the business sector’s performance has bolstered market sentiment, contributing to Thursday’s rise in US stocks, which was the greatest three-day rally since May 2022. Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. moved higher ahead of the release of their quarterly earnings reports next week, while Tesla Inc. soared 10% for the day after its quarterly results above expectations. Even if recent earnings optimism and anticipation that the Fed will take a more gradual approach to tighten monetary policy functioned as tailwinds for the equity markets, investor sentiment remains fragile due to worries about increasing inflation and the possibility of a recession.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose on Thursday, as the US currency dropped versus its peers and investors grew more bullish about the upcoming earnings season. The S&P 500 increased by 1% daily, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.5%. The Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors performed the best among all categories, advancing 2.25% and 1.51%, respectively. Nine of eleven sectors remained in positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 surged the highest on Thursday, increasing by 1.4%, while the MSCI World index jumped by 0.8%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar dropped on Thursday, maintaining its bearish trend and failing to rise above the 107.3 level as the upward advance in the equities markets and poor US economic data imposed bearish pressure on the currency. After the ECB’s monetary decision, the DXY index inched higher and reached a daily high before fresh selling began to erase all of its intraday gains. The US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims increased to 251K in the week ending July 16, exceeding the market’s expectation of 240K by a significant margin. In July, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -12.3, which weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The GBP/USD exchange rate increased by 0.16% on Thursday as the US dollar weakened across the board. However, investor sentiment deteriorated due to reasons such as the ECB’s unexpected decision to increase interest rates by 50 basis points. At the opening of the US trading session, the GBP/USD pair plummeted to a daily low below the 1.190 level before regaining upward momentum to recover its daily losses. After the release of the ECB’s monetary policy decision, EUR/USD had considerable buying pressure and reached a daily high above the 1.027 mark. The pair increased over 0.50% on the day.

The decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates by 50 basis points functioned as a tailwind for gold, which climbed 1.30% on the day after reaching a daily high above $1720 in the late US trading session. The restoration of gas flows from Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline exerted significant downward pressure on WTI oil prices, which fell to the $96 level during the US trading session.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

At the time of writing, gold is trading above $1,710 after recovering from a new 2022 bottom of $1,680.82. Following the announcement of the ECB’s monetary policy decision, the US dollar weakens, hence strengthening gold.

Technically speaking, gold indicates at a bullish correction as it has officially breached the bearish channel and the middle line of the Bollinger Band, indicating that bulls are initiating the upward momentum. Currently, the RSI indicator leans into positive territory on the four-hour chart, indicating that buyers have re-entered the market and sellers have exited. Gold is anticipated to rise towards the immediate resistance level of $1,727.58. If, on the other hand, gold is unable to keep its momentum above the negative channel, gains will be restricted and further selling pressure will ensue.

Resistance: 1727.58, 1756.40, 1779.70

Support: 1680.99

AUDUSD (4-Hour Chart)

After breaking the downward trend line in mid-July, the AUDUSD four-hour chart flips upside down. The four-hour chart reveals that AUDUSD closes above the 20 SMA but below the longer SMA, indicating that AUDUSD has not yet fully turned bullish over the longer term. The breach of the current resistance will propel AUD to the next level at 0.6982. Failure to overcome the current resistance level would result in a short-term AUD low of 0.6824.

Resistance: 0.6911, 0.6982, 0.7053

Support: 0.6824, 0.6682

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Following a larger-than-anticipated increase in interest rates by the ECB, the EURUSD gains ground.

From a technical standpoint, the four-hour picture turns positive; the EURUSD continues to climb after hitting a low in mid-July. The pair advances alongside the upward trend line and the 20 Simple Moving Average. However, bulls of the EURUSD face rejection after hitting the upper Bollinger Band band and the overbought zone of the RSI indicator; sellers of the EURUSD look to take action, leaping in significantly to keep the dominating bearish in place. At the time of writing, EURUSD is clinging to the ascending trend line; bulls will continue to gain if EURUSD can hold above the level, then proceed to the next immediate resistance level at 1.0304. Alternatively, if EURUSD goes below the trend line, it will turn bearish in the short term, inviting additional follow-through selling.

Resistance: 1.0266, 1.0363, 1.046

Support: 1.0146, 0.9952

Economic Data