The USD has shown some signs of recovery and is trading around the middle of its range since June. The MSCI All Country World Index has reached a new high, thanks to the Fed’s easing policies and steady global economic activity. Analysts suggest the USD could weaken further based on US-G6 interest rate differences. The Federal Reserve has reappointed 11 out of 12 regional Fed presidents, ensuring stability with new five-year terms starting in March 2026. Raphael Bostic is set to retire in February 2026. These reappointments aim to maintain stability and minimize concerns about political influence at the Fed.

Federal Reserve Sentiment

Anna Paulson from the Philadelphia Fed is taking a cautious approach, focusing more on labor market issues than inflation. Other Fed members, like Beth Hammack from Cleveland and Austan Goolsbee from Chicago, have also spoken publicly, with Goolsbee recently voting to keep current rates. Experts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates more than initially planned. The weak labor demand raises concerns, and inflation risks have not appeared as expected. Upcoming reports, such as non-farm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, are considered crucial. Fed funds futures predict a 50 basis points easing over the next year. With global equities reaching record highs, this environment promotes a risk-on mindset. However, the US dollar may show signs of weakness after not breaking out of its range since June 2025. This situation suggests traders should be cautious about the dollar’s strength, especially with expectations for its value to converge lower against other major currencies due to narrowing interest rate differences. We see opportunities to position for a weaker dollar in the coming weeks. Forwards and options contracts that gain from a declining USD against currencies like the euro or yen could be beneficial. The gap between the Fed funds rate and the European Central Bank’s refinancing rate, currently around 50 basis points, is likely to tighten as Fed rate cuts exceed those of other major economies.

Trading Opportunities and Labor Market Outlook

The futures market expects two 25-basis-point cuts from the Fed over the next year, but we believe easing could be even more aggressive. This suggests that interest rate derivatives, like going long on Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, may present lucrative opportunities as rates could decrease more than currently anticipated. A dovish Fed outlook compared to its official projections strengthens this trading thesis. This view aligns with signs of weakness in the US labor market, a key factor for the Fed. The October 2025 jobs report indicated modest payroll growth of 160,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% over the last quarter. These numbers provide support for dovish officials like Philadelphia Fed President Paulson to advocate for earlier or larger rate cuts. Moreover, inflation risks that previously kept the Fed hawkish are not significant now. The latest headline CPI for October 2025 was 2.8% year-over-year, continuing its slow decline from summer highs. This gives the Fed room to ease policy without worrying about increasing price pressures. For equity traders, although the trend looks positive, volatility is anticipated around next week’s non-farm payrolls and CPI data. Using options, such as buying straddles on the S&P 500, might capture significant market movements regardless of direction. Alternatively, buying call options is also a suitable strategy to benefit from potential upsides while managing downside risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar is facing pressure due to a rise in initial jobless claims, which have reached 236,000. This is the biggest weekly increase since March 2020. The job market is looking weak, with fewer jobs being created and more layoffs happening. Attention is on the upcoming reports – November’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). These reports will be released next week on December 16 and 18. If the data is weak, the USD might decrease further.

December Trends

The US Dollar often declines in December, a trend seen historically. Since 2000, December has been the weakest month for the dollar, showing an average drop of 1.07%. The USD index (DXY) has fallen in 17 out of the last 25 Decembers. The Dollar is under pressure as the labor market shows signs of weakening. Initial jobless claims increased to 242,000 last week, raising concerns after the November jobs report on December 5 revealed that job creation slowed to just 155,000. This decline in the dollar has been mirrored by a similar drop in U.S. Treasury yields. The ongoing trend of slowing job creation and rising layoffs means we are closely watching the November inflation report set to be released next Tuesday, December 16. A lower inflation figure could support the belief that the Federal Reserve might need to ease policies sooner rather than later, making the case for further dollar weakness stronger.

Trading Strategies

For derivative traders, the current environment suggests that buying put options on the Dollar Index (DXY) could be a smart move, preparing for a possible drop. Seasonal trends also support this strategy, as the dollar has fallen in 18 out of the last 26 Decembers, making it the weakest month of the year. Selling out-of-the-money call options on the dollar may also be a viable strategy to earn income, given that any rallies are expected to be limited. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Indian Rupee (INR) is falling against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair rising to new highs of 90.86. The currency is struggling due to uncertainty surrounding a potential US-India trade deal. A two-day meeting between US and Indian officials did not lead to any agreements on the trade deal. While US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described India’s offer as the “best ever,” the absence of a formal agreement continues to affect the Rupee negatively.

Indian Equity Market and Investor Sentiment

India’s Commerce and Industry Minister, Piyush Goyal, urged the US to sign the trade deal if they are pleased with the offer. In December, there may be continued foreign selling in the Indian equity market, with Foreign Institutional Investors offloading shares worth Rs. 18,491.29 crore. India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed inflation at 0.7%, up from 0.25% in October, which aligns with expectations. The USD/INR pair remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 89.8183, indicating a short-term upward trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.27, showing strong bullish momentum but suggesting some risk of fatigue. If prices break above 90.86, they could move towards 92.00. Conversely, closing below the 20-day EMA might signal a drop to 89.51. India has seen an average growth rate of 6.13% from 2006 to 2023, attracting a lot of foreign investment. Oil prices strongly affect the Rupee due to India’s dependence on imports.

Impact of External Factors on the Rupee

Changes in inflation affect the Rupee’s value. If inflation exceeds 4%, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may adjust interest rates. India often faces a trade deficit with imports exceeding exports, which drives up USD demand. Volatility in USD demand also impacts the Rupee’s strength. With the Rupee trading at historic lows against the US Dollar, the trend of weakness is likely to continue. The primary issue is the ongoing uncertainty regarding the US-India trade deal, keeping investors nervous. Without a formal agreement, we expect sentiment around the Indian currency to remain negative. This uncertainty is leading to significant capital outflows, with foreign investors withdrawing funds from Indian equities. In December 2025, foreign institutions have sold a net total of Rs. 18,491 crore, reminiscent of the outflows seen during the global monetary tightening of 2022 and 2023. This trend puts direct downward pressure on the Rupee. From a technical perspective, the uptrend in USD/INR remains strong, with prices staying well above the 20-day moving average of about 89.82. Traders might consider this level for potential buying on dips, especially if there’s an effort to break the recent high of 90.86. A successful break above this level could lead to a push towards the psychological level of 92.00. The Relative Strength Index is at 69.27, indicating that while bullish momentum is strong, the pair is nearing overbought conditions. We should be cautious of a possible short-term pullback or consolidation. A significant close below the 20-day moving average would signal weakening in this bullish trend. On the domestic side, November’s retail inflation of 0.7% is notably low and well below the RBI’s target of 4%. This situation gives the central bank little reason to increase interest rates, which have been held steady at 6.50% since the last policy meeting in early December 2025. With low inflation and stable or declining interest rates, the Rupee becomes less appealing for foreign investment. Additionally, external factors, like oil prices, significantly impact India’s import costs. With Brent crude prices rising to around $85 per barrel due to winter demand and recent OPEC+ production adjustments, demand for US Dollars from Indian importers is likely to stay high. This scenario adds further fundamental weakness for the Rupee in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The UK economy is facing struggles as growth fell by 0.1% in October, while a rise of 0.1% was expected. This is the first time since June that there has been no growth. The services sector is stagnant, construction dropped by 0.3%, and production decreased by 0.5%. The trade deficit also grew by £4 billion, reaching £6.7 billion from August to October. High energy prices are impacting production and manufacturing, posing a long-term challenge. US and European stock markets are behaving differently. European indices have done better than US indices for the second week of December. The Eurostoxx index rose by over 1%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.7%, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%. However, US futures indicate a weaker start. Oracle’s stock fell by 10% due to disappointing earnings and AI spending results, while Robinhood Markets dropped by 9%.

The Threat Of Stagflation

The UK faces the risk of stagflation, which could affect jobs. Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is crucial for predictions about UK interest rates, likely influencing the pound and gilt market. Despite good news like Google DeepMind expanding in the UK, the overall economic outlook is concerning due to high taxes and public sector growth, leading to stagnation. Signs of stagflation are evident in the UK economy, making it difficult for traders. We recently saw GDP contract by 0.1% in October, while inflation remained high at 4.5% in November. Traders should consider strategies that take advantage of volatility, such as buying straddles on the FTSE 100 index, as next week’s inflation data could cause significant market movement. This economic strain is affecting the pound, which has fallen below 1.22 against the US dollar this week. To protect against further declines, consider buying put options on sterling or shorting GBP futures. Meanwhile, the UK 10-year gilt yield rose by 15 basis points to 4.35%, suggesting there may be profit in bearish bets on UK government bonds.

European Central Bank’s Potential Rate Hike

In Europe, the European Central Bank is hinting at a rate hike, which is different from expectations for early 2026. This more aggressive stance is backed by recent Eurozone inflation data that exceeded expectations at 3.1% for November. This presents an opportunity to buy call options on the EUR/USD pair as central banks may diverge in their policies. In the US, Oracle’s 10% stock drop indicates a shift from tech stocks to more consumer-focused companies. The equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the cap-weighted index by 2% in the past month, showing this trend. Traders should think about selling call spreads on the Nasdaq 100 while potentially buying calls on consumer discretionary sector ETFs. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in Europe suggest that defense stocks will likely remain in demand. Major defense industry ETFs have already increased by over 5% in the last month, a trend that is expected to continue as countries boost military spending. It may be wise to consider long call options on major defense contractors to hedge against increasing global instability. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver remains stable above $64.00, having peaked at $64.62. The US Dollar continues to weaken, which helps keep precious metals strong. Silver has now risen for four straight days, staying steady above $64.00. The US Dollar Index is close to two-month lows, and expectations for monetary policy have not changed. The silver rally might be too much too fast, as technical indicators show an RSI of 75 on the 4-hour chart. Silver is struggling to consolidate further, facing resistance around $65.00, with future targets set at $68.17. Key support levels are $62.80 and $61.44, with further support near $59.85. These levels are crucial for those monitoring price movements. Silver is a popular investment because of its historical value and its ability to diversify portfolios. Its price is affected by geopolitical events, interest rates, and the performance of the US Dollar. Demand for silver in industries like electronics and solar energy influences its price. Economic conditions in the US, China, and India also play a role. Silver prices often move in sync with gold. Changes in the Gold/Silver ratio can reveal their relative value, affecting their positions in the market. On December 12, 2025, silver is holding above $64.00 after hitting an all-time high. This rise is largely due to a weak US Dollar, which has dropped on expectations of significant Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming year. For derivatives traders, this creates high tension between strong upward momentum and signs of fatigue. The current technical indicators may caution against buying call options at these prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions at 75, along with a bearish divergence, signaling that this rally might be losing steam. Although the trend remains upward, a 25% gain in just three weeks raises the likelihood of a sharp pullback. Therefore, strategies like buying puts or setting up bear put spreads to hedge long positions are worth considering. Fundamentally, the case for silver is still strong enough to cushion any potential decline. Industrial demand has been robust, especially in the photovoltaic and 5G sectors, which have consistently outpaced supply. Data from the Silver Institute in 2024 indicated record industrial usage, and demand from the green energy transition has only intensified since. Monetary policy plays a crucial role in supporting silver prices. Like late 2023, markets are pricing in Fed rate cuts aggressively, with the CME FedWatch Tool suggesting over a 90% chance of a cut by the second quarter of 2026. This sustained pressure on the dollar and real yields creates a tailwind for non-yielding assets like precious metals. We should also consider historical price trends, as this isn’t the first time silver has surged. In 2011, silver nearly reached $50 an ounce before experiencing a significant drop in subsequent years. While the fundamentals differ now, past price history reminds us that rapid increases can be followed by swift declines. Thus, traders in the coming weeks should focus on managing volatility rather than making outright directional bets. Strategies like vertical spreads can help define risk, while straddles or strangles might be used to take advantage of potential volatility spikes, regardless of direction. Key support to monitor is the $60.00 level; a drop below this could indicate the start of a larger correction.

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The Pound Sterling is facing pressure after the UK GDP data for October showed a decline of 0.1%. This was unexpected, as the forecast was for a growth of 0.1%. Although the Office for Budget Responsibility has improved its GDP forecasts, the Bank of England might consider cutting rates. Traders are anticipating a 25-basis point reduction. UK Industrial Production increased by 1.1% in October, which is better than expected. However, Manufacturing Production fell short with only a 0.5% increase. Next week, important economic data will be released, including labor market statistics and consumer price figures, which may impact the Pound’s outlook.

GBP/USD Trading Insights

The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3385, having declined after the weak GDP report. The US Dollar is underperforming after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, with more cuts expected soon. President Trump is pushing for further rate reductions, affecting market views. From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD is approximately at 1.3380. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average hints at potential short-term gains, supported by the Relative Strength Index. However, for further gains, the pair needs to close above key resistance levels. Support is noted at 1.3279. With the UK economy shrinking for two months in a row, the Pound faces increased downside risk. This puts more pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates next week, similar to the situation in late 2023 when slowing growth led to changes in central bank policy. The market is strongly anticipating a rate cut, so we should adjust our strategies accordingly. A cut of 25 basis points to 3.75% is widely expected, making the Bank of England’s remarks on future policy the main focus. UK inflation rates are falling; November’s data showed a drop to 2.9%, providing the committee a reason to take action. Any suggestion of further cuts in early 2026 could hasten the decline of the Sterling.

Strategic Market Positioning

In the short term, buying put options on the Pound could be beneficial as we anticipate weakness leading up to next week’s data releases. This is especially relevant for the GBP/USD pair, which is struggling against significant technical resistance. This tactic allows us to profit from a potential decline while clearly limiting our risk. However, we shouldn’t overlook the weakness of the US Dollar, which is currently supporting GBP/USD. The Federal Reserve’s dovish approach, with a recent rate cut and expectations for another in 2026, is placing limits on the Dollar’s strength. Next week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data will be crucial; if the number is below the expected 175,000, it would strengthen the Fed’s easing stance and support GBP/USD. Given the opposing weaknesses, the GBP/USD is stuck below the important 1.3400 level, making volatility strategies appealing. A short-term straddle, where we buy both a put and a call option, could effectively capitalize on the breakout likely to follow next week’s central bank meetings and data announcements. Keep an eye on the 20-day moving average at 1.3279 as a critical support level in case of a downward move. There are also strong opportunities in currency pairs that minimize the effect of the weak US Dollar. The Pound is struggling against the Australian Dollar, illustrating a policy difference, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is more focused on inflation. Shorting GBP/AUD offers a cleaner way to express a negative outlook on the UK economy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar has weakened after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, with the Dollar Index closing near 98.00. This drop is due to lower expectations for interest rates and typical end-of-year market pressure. Interest rates decreased, with the two-year rate falling to 3.50%. The market expects the Federal Reserve’s final rate to be 3.05% by the end of next year.

Market Stability Insights

The US market calendar is light right now, which may help stabilize things after recent risk events. Some caution in the stock market could support the Dollar. Currently, the DXY is around 98.350, with a chance it may fall slightly to 98.200. These insights come from the FXStreet Insights Team, who gather views from market specialists and analysts. The US dollar is continuing to fall after this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Dollar Index (DXY) is now testing the 98.00 mark, following our expectations based on the central bank’s announcement. This downward trend is mainly due to changing expectations about interest rates. After the latest CPI report for November 2025 showed inflation easing to 2.8%, the market now anticipates a terminal rate of only 3.05% by the end of 2026. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%.

Seasonal Dollar Weakness

We are also entering a time of seasonal weakness for the dollar, adding to the downward pressure. Traditionally, December has been tough for the DXY, as seen in seven of the ten years from 2015 to 2024. This trend is often linked to end-of-year portfolio adjustments and lower market liquidity. Given this scenario, traders might consider buying put options on dollar-tracking ETFs like the Invesco DB USD Bullish Fund (UUP). This approach allows for defined-risk profits from further dollar declines through January 2026. Alternatively, buying call options on currencies like the Euro or Japanese Yen offers another way to benefit from dollar weakness. For those who think the most significant decline has passed, establishing bearish credit spreads on the DXY or related futures could be wise. Selling a call option while buying a more distant out-of-the-money call creates a position that profits if the dollar remains below a certain level. This strategy takes advantage of both the downward trend and possible stabilization in market volatility. We also recommend that companies with substantial US dollar receivables review their hedging strategies. Using forward contracts or currency options can lock in exchange rates for the first and second quarters of 2026, protecting against further value loss. This is especially important for businesses with tight margins that are vulnerable to foreign exchange changes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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SMH, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, includes major semiconductor companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. This fund has about 25 stocks and shows higher volatility because it features large chipmakers. Currently, SMH is rising through a bullish five-wave pattern from the lows of April, according to Elliott Wave theory. The ETF may be in its final Wave 5, with expectations to reach around the $400 mark, even with some short-term ups and downs.

Potential For Upward Movement

The overall pattern suggests more upward movement could occur, completing a smaller five-wave formation within the fifth wave. Positive market sentiment might drive semiconductor stocks higher until late 2025 or early 2026. It’s important to note that investing comes with risks and uncertainties. Individual research is essential. Investors should be aware that they could face losses and emotional stress, as all investment risks are their responsibility. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is continuing its strong rally that started back in April 2025, with an upward trend aimed at the $400 level. This final bullish wave is fueled by positive market sentiment. We view this as a continuation of the strong growth in chip stocks seen this year. Recent data supports this optimistic outlook. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation cooling to 2.1%, leading us to believe the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in early 2026. Additionally, global semiconductor sales exceeded expectations last quarter, thanks to ongoing investments in AI infrastructure. These factors create a favorable environment for the sector’s continued growth.

Strategies For Derivative Traders

For derivative traders, this is a good time to position for more upside as we move into the new year. We recommend buying call options with strike prices near or above the $400 target, focusing on expirations in January and February 2026 to allow time for the expected move. Another strategy is to sell out-of-the-money put spreads, taking advantage of high volatility to earn premium. We should also be ready for possible short-term pullbacks, similar to what we experienced during the major AI-driven rally of 2023-2024. Dips toward the $375-$380 support zone should be seen as chances to enter or increase bullish positions. The overall upward trend remains strong as long as the ETF stays above the lows reached in October. Implied volatility in SMH options is high, making selling premium appealing, but it also indicates that the market expects significant price movements. This means that while option premiums are high, they might yield big returns if the ETF’s price surpasses the $400 mark. We are weighing the cost of these options against the potential for a strong finish to 2025 and a bullish start to 2026. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The USD/CNH currency pair is going down because the US Dollar is getting weaker, while the Chinese yuan (CNY) has a strong daily fix. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continues to support a controlled increase in the renminbi (RMB). Recently, the USD/CNH was at 7.0536, according to analysts at OCBC. The PBoC’s strategy for RMB appreciation is still in place. The latest fix is the lowest in 14 months at 7.0638. This careful approach helps prevent sudden increases that could disrupt USD conversions by exporters and keeps the market stable.

Market Momentum Analysis

Market momentum is flat right now, with the Relative Strength Index close to oversold levels. Support is found at 7.05 and 7.0380, and there could be a sharp decline if these levels are broken. Resistance is at 7.08, which aligns with the 21-day moving average. The overall market analysis shows trends in related markets. Gold prices are nearing record highs due to a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve, while USD/CAD continues to face pressure. In other news, EUR/GBP remains steady, even with varying inflation and GDP reports. Litecoin shows signs of a bullish trend, and AAVE’s price suggests a potential breakout. The US dollar is losing ground against the Chinese yuan, a move that seems carefully controlled. Since April 2025, the PBoC has been guiding the yuan to a stronger position, creating a clear opportunity for the upcoming weeks. Recent data backs this up, with China’s industrial production for November 2025 rising by 5.6%. This stronger economic situation gives authorities the confidence to allow the currency to strengthen. The official daily fix has dropped by more than 1.5% in the last quarter, showing a significant and deliberate trend.

Trading Strategy and Broader Economic Context

Given this downward pressure, we recommend buying put options on USD/CNH. Focus on strike prices near the critical support levels of 7.05 and 7.0380, which could lead to opportunities if the price moves toward the 7.00 level. However, remember that the central bank prefers a gradual decline, which could limit volatility. One-month implied volatility is currently low at about 4.2%, making options inexpensive yet susceptible to slow price movements. Therefore, considering expiration dates in late January or February 2026 may be wise to navigate any short-term pauses. This trading strategy is bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, which keeps the US dollar weaker overall. The recent cut that brought the US 2-year yield down to 3.50% is a far cry from the aggressive policy seen in 2023 and 2024. This broader weakness of the dollar supports the yuan’s appreciation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Nasdaq 100 is stabilizing after breaking out of its downward channel and reclaiming the 50-day moving average (50-DMA). However, it is facing resistance near the 25,890 level, as analysts have pointed out.

Recent Movements of the Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 recently broke above a steep downward trend and regained the 50-DMA. However, it has stalled near the previous gap down at 25,890 points. There is a possibility for the index to form a small base here. Currently, the 50-DMA, around 25,200 points, acts as short-term support, which is crucial for the index to maintain its upward trend. If it manages to break above 25,890 points, the index could aim for higher levels, potentially reaching the October highs near 26,180 points and future targets around 26,600 points. The FXStreet Insights Team, composed of journalists, gathers market views from recognized experts, blending commercial notes with insights from various analysts. We see the Nasdaq 100 building a small base after its recent downtrend. It has halted just below the critical 25,890 level, which is an important resistance point from a prior gap. The market seems to be waiting for a catalyst to guide its next significant move.

Key Trading Considerations for Nasdaq 100

For bullish traders, a consistent move above 25,890 will be a critical signal over the next few days. This breakthrough would confirm the uptrend and allow for buying call options or call spreads aimed at the October highs near 26,180. The recent November CPI report shows core inflation cooling to a 2.8% annual rate, which could set the stage for a year-end rally if this resistance is overcome. However, we must keep an eye on the 50-day moving average around 25,200, which is our key support level. If the index drops below this level, it would indicate that recent gains were temporary, and we should consider using protective puts to guard against a decline. As seen in the third quarter of 2024, failing to maintain this key average can lead to a rapid drop to lower levels. With trading volumes expected to decrease as the holidays approach, the index may stay range-bound for a while. This trading environment is favorable for those who sell options, like iron condors, taking advantage of the sideways movement between the 25,200 support and 25,890 resistance. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently around 16, indicating that traders aren’t anticipating significant short-term moves. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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