USD/JPY has reached daily lows after the release of the non-farm payrolls report. Initially, the US dollar weakened, leading to a rise in stock futures, which have since reversed, with S&P 500 futures down by 0.2%.

The household survey indicated job losses, and the establishment survey reported a decline of 1.2 million full-time jobs. This economic data may be influencing the dollar, although market focus is anticipated to quickly transition to trading dynamics.

Usdjpy Reaction To Payroll Data

This movement in USD/JPY reflects how traders digested the employment data, which initially pressured the dollar. The softening in job numbers likely sparked concerns over growth, though attention is already shifting elsewhere. The payroll report delivered mixed signals—headline job additions met expectations, yet the broader employment picture was far from reassuring. A decline in full-time positions suggests underlying weakness, even if headline figures give the impression of stability.

Bond markets reacted in tandem, with yields dipping before paring their moves. The two-year Treasury yield briefly stepped lower before regaining some ground, indicating that traders are not yet fully committed to a new direction. With rate expectations still fluid, price action remains sensitive to external developments. The Federal Reserve will be watching closely, but no immediate policy shifts are expected based on this report alone. However, how officials interpret labour market softness could influence upcoming discussions.

Equity market reactions were just as telling. Stock futures initially jumped as rate-cut hopes resurfaced but soon erased those gains. This hesitation suggests that investors remain wary of broader economic risks. A weakening labour market, even if gradual, complicates the outlook and introduces more swings in risk sentiment. If recessionary fears start to gain traction, defensive positioning could return.

Market Volatility And Future Outlook

For traders, the coming weeks will require careful navigation of shifting expectations. Market participants should recognise that volatility around US data releases will remain elevated. Reactions to upcoming economic indicators—especially inflation readings—may be outsized, given the current sensitivity. Staying ahead of these fluctuations requires a sharp focus on both price action and sentiment swings.

As USD/JPY stabilises following its drop, it will be worth watching whether buyers step in or if selling momentum persists. Movements in Treasury yields will continue to offer valuable insights, as yield differentials remain a primary driver for this pair. Additionally, central bank rhetoric from both sides will shape positioning. With the Bank of Japan sticking to an ultra-loose monetary stance while the Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, rate-driven moves are likely.

The payrolls data may have delivered the first push, but subsequent positioning will determine whether USD/JPY extends lower or finds support. Keeping a close watch on market developments will be essential in determining the next move.

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Potash is an essential fertilizer, predominantly utilised by US farmers, with Canada being the main supplier. Belarus also serves as a key source of potash on a global scale.

The tariff on potash has decreased from 25% to 10%. There appears to be a trend in the US to implement a 10% tariff on various imports entering the country.

Shift In Trade Policy

This reduction marks a shift in trade policy, easing the cost burden for buyers. A lower tariff means imports face fewer obstacles, which could alter buying patterns across the industry. Decisions from policymakers suggest an approach that favours a more uniform rate on selected goods, with potash being one of them.

With Canada as the largest supplier, changes in tariffs inevitably reshape price expectations. Buyers accustomed to higher duties may reassess their sourcing strategies, while suppliers must consider the competitive pressure from Belarus, which remains a prominent player despite existing restrictions. If this adjustment leads to increased imports, excess supply could weigh on prices, particularly if demand growth does not keep pace.

Markets react to shifts in policy, and this case is no exception. When duties fall, costs for importers decline, potentially leading to increased shipments. Whether this induces a meaningful price correction depends largely on the volume of product entering the country. If additional supply quickly reaches buyers, valuations could soften. However, any lag between imports and distribution could delay these effects.

Broader trends in tariffs suggest a pattern forming. By moving multiple categories of goods to a similar rate, authorities provide a clearer framework for future adjustments. Short-term movements will reflect these conditions, but longer-term implications rest on how producers and buyers respond.

Market Absorption And Price Trends

Price movements in the coming weeks will likely depend on how quickly the market absorbs the change. If contracts have already accounted for adjustments, immediate shifts may be limited. Should new imports arrive faster than anticipated, the response could be more pronounced. Watching the pace of shipments and inventory levels will provide insight into how this unfolds.

For those navigating exposure to these changes, assessing trade volumes and pricing behaviour remains essential. Supply-side reactions will be just as telling as demand trends. While some may view lower tariffs as an incentive to bring in additional volume, pricing pressure from competing sources must also be considered. Tracking these factors will indicate whether recent policy changes drive enduring shifts or merely short-term fluctuations.

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In February 2025, US non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000, falling short of the anticipated 160,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, compared to the expected 4.0%.

The two-month net revision showed a decrease of 2,000 jobs. The participation rate was 62.4%, down from 62.6% in the prior month.

Wage Growth And Job Stability

Average hourly earnings remained unchanged at +0.3% month-on-month, but annual growth slowed to 4.0%, slightly below expectations. Private payrolls increased by 140,000, while full-time jobs fell by 1,193,000.

Sectoral hiring varied, with healthcare seeing the most growth at +52,000, while hospitality suffered a loss of 16,000 jobs.

What this tells us is that job growth did not meet expectations, and unemployment ticked upwards more than economists had forecast. A slower-than-expected expansion in payrolls, coupled with a marginal downward revision in previous data, suggests that labour market momentum is moderating. This ties into broader expectations for how quickly the economy is cooling.

A lower participation rate means fewer people are engaged in the workforce compared to the previous month. This can affect how unemployment figures are interpreted, as a decline in participation sometimes masks deeper weaknesses in hiring. Wage growth remained steady on a monthly basis, but the yearly figure fell slightly behind what analysts had been looking for. Earnings data is crucial in assessing inflationary pressures since higher wages contribute to consumer spending.

Sectoral Employment Trends

The breakdown between different types of employment also reveals a shift. Private payroll additions indicate continued hiring, but the sharp decline in full-time positions raises questions about job stability. Changes in full-time employment versus part-time work can influence confidence in long-term income prospects, which in turn affects broader consumer behaviour.

Different sectors experienced contrasting trends. Healthcare hiring remained robust, adding jobs at a pace that reflects consistent demand. Meanwhile, hospitality saw a pullback, potentially reflecting weaker discretionary spending. Fluctuations in sectoral job data provide insight into which areas of the economy are expanding and where headwinds might be forming.

Given these developments, the response in financial markets is likely to depend on how traders position themselves in relation to expectations around monetary policy. A labour market showing signs of cooling, though not deteriorating sharply, provides a different backdrop for rate decisions than more aggressive slowdowns. Economic data points like these shape expectations, influencing how asset prices adjust over the coming weeks.

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The February 2024 employment report will be released on 7 March 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time. It will include critical data such as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

Expectations for the NFP range from 30,000 to 300,000. The unemployment rate is predicted to be between 3.9% and 4.1%.

Average Hourly Earnings Expectations

For average hourly earnings, month-on-month estimates range from 0.1% to 0.4%, while year-on-year expectations vary from 4.0% to 4.2%. Understanding these ranges and their distribution plays a role in market reactions to the report’s release.

This upcoming employment report serves as an indicator of economic strength. It offers insight into job creation, wage growth, and labour market conditions, each influencing expectations about future Federal Reserve decisions. As markets digest the numbers, reactions often spill into rate expectations, equity valuations, and risk sentiment.

Looking at prior releases, sharper deviations from forecasts have led to more pronounced shifts in asset prices. When payroll growth outpaces estimates, rate-sensitive instruments frequently move lower as traders raise expectations for tighter policy. Conversely, weaker job gains tend to stoke speculation about potential adjustments in monetary policy, often leading to movement in bonds and equities. The unemployment rate, while important, generally exerts less immediate pressure unless a major surprise emerges.

Average hourly earnings hold a special place in this equation. If wages rise faster than expected, markets may interpret this as evidence of persistent inflationary pressure. Such an outcome causes swift reactions in bond yields and interest rate futures, particularly when paired with strong employment figures. Slower earnings growth, meanwhile, can provide relief to rate-sensitive sectors, as concerns about wage-driven inflation ease.

Market Reactions And Policy Implications

Historical trends underscore how traders price in expectations ahead of time, with rapid repositioning occurring once actual data is released. Market depth, liquidity, and positioning ahead of the report dictate the extent of movement. Those looking to manage risk around this release must focus not only on the headline numbers but also the broader implications for inflation and monetary response.

Powell and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve have repeatedly emphasised the need for data-dependent decision-making. Labour market resilience or signs of slowing momentum feed directly into how policymakers assess the path forward. If payroll numbers exceed forecasts convincingly, rate cuts could be pushed further out in the year. On the other hand, weaker figures, particularly if accompanied by subdued wage growth, would reinforce a more accommodative view.

Any deviation outside expected ranges is likely to trigger knee-jerk reactions across futures, bonds, and equities. Even within expectations, nuances in wage growth relative to employment gains shape sentiment. Given the importance of this data, preparation remains a priority.

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Bitcoin futures are trading at 89,430, a slight decrease of 0.03% from the previous day, as the market awaits the U.S. jobs report. The price action is currently within a 28.5% correction from the all-time high of 110,150, with a recent low of 78,675.

Key liquidity zones are identified at 88,500 and 91,000, with resistance at 90,300 and 90,865 – 91,000. Support levels are at 88,665 and 88,500, and crossing below 86,880 may indicate weakening buyer control.

Volume Profile Insights

Volume profile highlights areas of high trading activity, establishing the market’s accepted price levels, while VWAP offers a fair value benchmark. Trading strategies should consider taking partial profits to mitigate risks.

The market may remain range-bound until a catalyst drives movement. A breach of 91,000 could lead to higher targets of 93,175 and 95,000, while a drop below 88,000 risks moving towards lower liquidity zones.

With Bitcoin futures holding steady near 89,430, the market remains cautious in anticipation of the U.S. jobs report, a known trigger for volatility. The ongoing 28.5% correction from the all-time high suggests a recalibration, with the recent low of 78,675 serving as a reference point for sentiment. Current price movement suggests a phase where traders seek confirmation before committing to stronger directional moves.

Observation of liquidity zones around 88,500 and 91,000 suggests where sizeable transaction clusters have formed. Resistance remains evident between 90,300 and the upper bound of 91,000, presenting challenges to upward movement. However, support structures at 88,665 and 88,500 indicate areas where buyers have defended price levels. Should price action dip under 86,880, it would be reasonable to interpret weakening demand, potentially opening the door for sellers to exert control.

Potential Market Movement

Volume profile data highlights where activity has concentrated, offering insight into areas where positions have been built and defended. With VWAP acting as a gauge for fair value, deviations from these accepted levels could present opportunities or signal dislocations between price and market positioning. Managing exposure by taking partial profits remains an effective tactic, helping to improve flexibility while controlling downside risk.

With no immediate catalyst, price may continue consolidating within its current boundaries. Yet, a decisive break beyond 91,000 could shift focus towards 93,175 and 95,000, where previous transaction activity provides reference points. Conversely, should pressure intensify below 88,000, deeper liquidity pockets may come into play, drawing attention to levels previously tested during the broader correction.

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The euro continues to rise as markets anticipate the US jobs report. Oil prices increased slightly after comments from Russia’s Novak regarding potential adjustments to OPEC+ output.

Germany’s industrial orders fell by 7.0%, while France’s trade balance reported a deficit of €6.5 billion. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% in Q4, and UK house prices decreased by 0.1% in February.

EUR/USD reached a high of 1.0870, with GBP/USD up 0.2%. Conversely, USD/CAD rose by 0.2%, while AUD/USD declined by 0.5%. European equities fell, with only the DAX remaining positive.

Market Reactions And Economic Signals

The market’s reaction to economic data and policy signals has continued to shape trading conditions. The European common currency pushed higher as participants braced for the latest figures from the United States labour market. At the same time, oil climbed slightly after remarks from Novak, who suggested that oil-producing nations may consider modifying supply agreements.

Fresh data from Germany brought unwelcome news, showing industrial orders slumping by 7.0%. France also faced headwinds, with the trade deficit reaching €6.5 billion. Meanwhile, the broader Eurozone economy edged forward, recording 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter. Across the Channel, property prices in Britain dipped slightly last month, extending concerns about weaker demand in the housing market.

On the currency front, euro-dollar climbed to 1.0870, reflecting optimism surrounding the bloc’s outlook. Sterling saw a modest increase against the dollar, gaining 0.2%. By contrast, the Canadian dollar weakened, pushing USD/CAD up by the same margin. The Australian dollar lost ground, with its rate against the US dollar falling 0.5%, indicating shifting sentiment towards risk-driven assets.

European Stock Market Performance

Stocks across Europe struggled to gain traction. The majority of benchmark indices ended lower—only the DAX managed to hold on to positive territory, demonstrating resilience amid broader selling pressure.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the commitment to maintaining policies that support a strong dollar and oppose currency manipulation.

Bessent noted that the stock market plays a role in the information considered by Trump daily.

He clarified that while there may not be a “Trump put,” there is a “Trump call upside.”

Divergence From Campaign Agenda

Bessent’s comments suggest a divergence from Trump’s campaign agenda, with recent tariffs and geopolitical changes complicating economic strategies.

Additionally, recent softer economic data has influenced decision-making in the past week.

Bessent’s remarks underscore a departure from earlier rhetoric, indicating that while traders may not rely on an implied safety net for asset prices, there exists an incentive structure that rewards an optimistic outlook in certain areas. This shift has implications for those assessing risk, particularly in light of ongoing trade policies and global economic shifts.

Statements from the Treasury Secretary highlight the extent to which financial markets feed into daily policy discussions. The implication is that valuations and movements in equities inform broader decision-making, bringing into question how responsive officials may be to fluctuations in confidence. If policymakers are indeed factoring in equity performance as a measure of economic health, this could alter the perceived balance of intervention and restraint.

On the subject of tariffs, the administration’s approach appears increasingly pragmatic, adjusting course amid external pressures rather than adhering strictly to prior pledges. Trade measures and geopolitical tensions have introduced complexities not fully addressed in earlier policy outlines. This suggests that what was once a straightforward stance has developed into a more conditional approach.

Market Expectations And Policy Shifts

At the same time, softer economic readings over the past week have entered the equation. Recent data points to areas of slower activity, raising questions about whether existing measures will continue unabated or whether policy adjustments may follow. Observers are weighing whether these signals prompt a recalibration in outlook, particularly as various sectors react unevenly.

For those analysing price movements, these developments provide context for expectations in the near term. With official messaging reflecting both market responsiveness and policy recalibration, traders are left to assess whether trends align with prior assumptions or whether positioning requires adjustment. The challenge lies in interpreting how much of this rhetoric translates into tangible action and whether expectations are shifting in a way that necessitates reassessment.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the tariffs expected to begin on 2 April will represent a one-time price adjustment for countries. He emphasised that there will be no exemptions or exceptions to these tariffs.

Countries will need to consider whether they want to maintain frictionless trade under these new financial conditions. The upcoming tariffs will impact trade dynamics significantly, requiring strategic decisions from various nations.

Impact On Exporters

Bessent’s remarks leave little room for negotiation. The fees set to take effect in early April will not include exclusions or waivers, meaning every affected country will need to factor in higher costs when selling goods. This move introduces added difficulty for exporters, particularly those reliant on stable trade agreements. Governments and businesses alike have no choice but to adjust.

Given that the upcoming change is presented as a singular shift rather than a long-term mechanism, there is no suggestion of gradual implementation or phased adjustments. Pricing models will need instant recalibration. Some entities may attempt to absorb the added expense, while others will inevitably pass it along to buyers. That reality alone increases unpredictability in near-term trading activity.

There is now an open question about how different economies will handle the shift. Some may attempt to offset the cost by altering supply chains, sourcing alternatives, or renegotiating contracts. However, immediate action is required to avoid market disruptions. Any delay in policy responses could create short-term mismatches in expectations between buyers and sellers.

Capital Market Effects

Beyond direct trade implications, there will be broader effects on capital markets. The cost realignment may affect inflation calculations, prompting central banks to reassess monetary policy. Should price adjustments filter into consumer goods, interest rate expectations may shift, directly influencing bond markets. This creates additional volatility for traders watching policy-driven price movements. Consequently, market participants must factor in the possibility of adjusted yield projections when structuring trades.

Past market behaviour suggests that such regulatory shifts often provoke exaggerated short-term reactions. The lack of room for carve-outs limits speculation about potential reversals, increasing the likelihood of immediate repricing. That kind of pressure often leads to sharp moves in currency markets as well, particularly for nations with heavy trade imbalances. Watching how major importers respond will be critical in determining currency fluctuations.

Meanwhile, supply-side constraints may become more pronounced. If certain exporters reconsider their participation in existing trade agreements, availability gaps could appear for select products. These interruptions might create temporary surges in contract prices, forcing hedgers to make rapid adjustments. Any lack of preparation could leave firms exposed to unintended cost escalations.

With just weeks remaining before implementation, there is little time left to react. The focus now must shift from debating the long-term implications to addressing the immediate need for risk management. Uncertainty is already reflected in price swings across relevant markets, underscoring the urgency of timely action.

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Boeing has experienced a three-week pullback, reaching important support levels that may present a buying opportunity. A structured entry plan, along with risk management and profit-taking strategies, is advised for potential buyers.

Technical indicators include a value area low of $157.94 and a historical price of $158.43. Recent market behaviour shows a 37% rally in just under 100 days, suggesting a potential recovery.

Buy The Dip Strategy

A precise buy-the-dip plan outlines staged purchases, with a total position size of $4,744 and a stop-loss set at $154.98. Target price scenarios yield a 12% gain potential with a 6.00 reward-to-risk ratio.

The plan encourages flexible profit-taking and risk management, emphasising the importance of a stop-loss. Market conditions should be considered, as broader trends can affect stock recovery. Lastly, employing pre-market orders and automating exits can enhance trading strategy.

The recent decline over the past three weeks has brought prices into a range that has historically attracted buying interest. Given past market behaviour, this pullback may offer traders a setup with defined risk and a promising reward potential. However, execution must be structured, with disciplined entry levels, safeguarded exits, and realistic profit targets.

With historical price levels sitting near $158 and a value area low just below that, these figures highlight where demand previously surfaced. Context matters. The 37% advance over approximately three months demonstrates that buyers have been willing to step in at lower levels, which may repeat if broader conditions permit. However, no historical move guarantees future performance.

A methodical approach ensures better decision-making. Allocating capital in increments rather than committing fully at once helps manage risk exposure. The outlined total position size of $4,744 suggests a staggered entry rather than a lump sum purchase, allowing for adjustment if price action dictates.

Managing Risk And Exits

Risk management remains paramount. A stop-loss just under $155 protects against excessive downside should the thesis prove incorrect. When considering the 6.00 reward-to-risk projection—and the possibility of achieving a 12% price increase—managing exits carefully becomes equally important. Profit-taking should remain adaptable, especially in shifting market conditions.

External factors must be acknowledged. The broader economic climate, sector-specific developments, and overall market sentiment could all influence whether the recent pullback develops into an upward move or extends into further decline. Being reactive rather than rigid is necessary.

Automation can prevent emotional decision-making. Pre-market orders ensure entries are executed at predetermined levels without hesitation, and automating exits removes uncertainty in fast-moving conditions. This can contribute to consistency and reduce hesitation in applying the planned strategy.

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OPEC+ may reverse its decision to increase oil production if market imbalances occur, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. He stated that despite the agreement to boost production starting in April, adjustments could be made based on market conditions.

The remarks come after oil prices recently fell to their September lows. Novak’s comments suggest that the group remains flexible in its production strategy to respond to fluctuating market demands.

Market Adjustment Considerations

Novak’s remarks highlight the willingness of oil-producing nations to reconsider their output strategy should market conditions warrant it. The recent slump in oil prices, which brought them back to levels last seen in September, has raised concerns about whether current production targets align with actual demand. If supply growth outpaces consumption, prices could come under further pressure, prompting producing nations to reassess their approach.

We have seen oil markets respond swiftly to policy signals from major producers. A pledge to increase output starting in April was initially intended to stabilise supply expectations. However, Novak’s statement introduces the possibility of a reversal, should it become clear that additional barrels undermine price stability. This adaptability is not new, but it does reinforce the idea that producers are closely monitoring global demand shifts, refining input costs, and broader macroeconomic developments to inform their next move.

Some market participants have begun adjusting their expectations, factoring in the potential for production targets to change again. With oil prices showing weakness, the question becomes whether lower levels will persist long enough to force action. If sustained, current prices may pressure some oil-dependent economies and create uncertainties for those with fiscal plans tied to specific price ranges.

Impact Of Economic Data

Price movements are not dictated by supply alone. Recent economic data, particularly from major consumers, will influence how producers react. Slower-than-expected growth in key markets could weigh on fuel demand, reinforcing the need to remain flexible. Alternatively, a sudden shift in geopolitical or economic conditions could lead to tighter supplies, requiring adjustments in the opposite direction.

For those closely watching, Novak’s comments serve as a reminder that production agreements are not set in stone. Decisions made today may look different in a few months if data suggests a mismatch between supply and demand. This fluidity underscores why paying attention to both producer announcements and market responses is essential in the weeks ahead.

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