War in Ukraine, Slowdown in China, and Potential of a US recession make Investors Nervous

US stock advanced on Wednesday, which is the first back-to-back gain in almost two weeks. Risk sentiment remains fragile, any upbeat surprises may lead to dramatic gains for markets amid investors’ expectations for potential disappointments. Tesla briefly jumped in extended trading after its earnings beat estimates. Besides the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China and the prospect of the US recession, are all adding to investors’ skittishness. The European Union is preparing for a situation where Russia halts gas export to retaliate against sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. It is worth noting that the rate decision made by the Bank of Japan and Bank of England this week. Overall, the market is still in fear of uncertainty, investors tend to wait for more information to plan their next moves.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both advanced for a second straight training session, as the US dollar remained under selling pressure. The S&P 500 increased 0.59% daily and Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.15% for the day, seven of eleven sectors get in positive territory as the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors performed the best among all groups, rising 1.77% and 1.56% respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 also rose 1.6% on Wednesday.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced on Wednesday, ending its previous slide and rebounded toward the 107 area amid recession fears and a cautious market mood ahead of the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. The DXY index was surrounded by bullish momentum during the first half of the day, then preserved its upside traction to touch a daily high above 107.2 level in the US session. The US dollar has benefitted from its haven status as investors are awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting on Thursday, which is expected to hike the rate by 25 bps in July or even a potential 50 bps move.

GBP/USD declined with a 0.27% loss on Wednesday amid the stronger US dollar across the board. The worse-than-anticipated UK inflation data exerted bearish pressure on the cable as the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 9.4% yearly in June. The GBP/USD climbed to a daily high above the 1.203 mark in the Asian session, but then witnessed heavy selling to surrender all of its daily gains. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained under downside momentum and dropped to a daily low below 1.016 level during the US trading session. The pair was down almost 0.50% for the day.

Gold tumbled with a 0.85% loss for the day after dropping to a daily low below the $1694 mark in the late US trading session, as the rising US bond yields and stronger greenback yesterday both weighed on the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI oil failed to preserve its upside traction and dropped to the $99 area during the US session, as the recession fears escalated amid central banks’ rate hikes.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold seems to consolidate along the descending channel on Wednesday. The outlook of the metal, gold, stays bearish as long as it trades within the bearish channel. On the upside, To regain upside traction, gold needs to at least climb above the descending channel onto the downside, the RSI indicator stays within the negative territory, suggesting that gold buyers are still on the sidelines. The breakout of the immediate support of 1697.66 would confirm another decline.

Resistance: 1,740.31, 1,766.70, 1,788.03

Support: 1,697.66

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY rebounds after hitting the support level of 137.43. The intraday bias remains upside as it continues to trade within the strong bullish channel. At the time of writing, USDJPY is clinging to the upper bound of the bullish channel; a break of 138.18 will resume a larger up trend to its next resistance of 139.38. The break would be significantly important for USDJPY’s bulls as it is where the upper band of the channel and the 20 Simple Moving Average intersect. On the flip side, USDJPY’s bears need to decline below 136.22 to claim the downside momentum. Further price action eyes on the BOJ Press Conference and the FOMC meeting next week.

Resistance: 138.18, 139.38

Support: 137.43, 136.82, 136.22

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD edges lower but steadily stays above 1.0200 after US data, Existing Home Sales fell sharply in June. Investors stay on the sidelines, waiting for the ECB meeting.

From the technical perspective, bulls of the EURUSD face rejections after hitting the resistance of 1.0266; however, the short-term outlook remains upside as the EURUSD still trades above the 20 SMA and within the upper band of the Bollinger band. The upside momentum holds as long as the RSI indicator does not fall towards the negative levels and the MACD does not become bearish. On the flip side, the decline will likely pick up the pace on a break below the support level of 1.0146.

Resistance: 1.0266, 1.0363, 1.046

Support: 1.0146, 0.9952

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
JPYBoJ Outlook Report (YoY)11:00N/A
EURBoJ Press ConferenceTentativeN/A
EURDeposit Facility Rate (Jul)20:15-0.25%
EURECB Marginal Lending Facility20:15N/A
EURECB Monetary Policy Statement20:15N/A
EURECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)20:150.25%
USDInitial Jobless Claims20:30240K
EURPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)20:30-22.5
EURECB Press Conference20:45N/A
EURECB President Lagarde Speaks22:15N/A

Markets Focused on Central Banks’ Aggressive Monetary Tightening. ECB consider a 50 bps hike.

US stock rebounded on Tuesday, regained upside momentum and closed near session highs in its biggest one-day gain since June 24th as investors assessed the outlook for earnings. Any upside surprises may lead to impressive gains for equity markets amid investors’ expectations for potential disappointments ahead of the earnings report season. But the market focus remained on whether the aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks to fight high inflation will lead to a recession or not. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank may consider a 50 bps rate hike during its meeting this week to deal with the worsening inflation, which lifted the Euro higher to its highest level in two weeks. On top of that, recession concerns have cooled a little bit as Russian gas giant Gazprom would resume its gas provision to the EU as planned on July 21.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both advanced on Tuesday as the US dollar remained under selling pressure and investors speculated that markets may have come close to their bottom. The S&P 500 was up 2.7% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced with a 2.4% gain for the day. All eleven sectors stayed in positive territory as the Communication Services and the Industrial sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 3.63% and 3.58%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed the most with a 3.1% gain on Tuesday and the MSCI World index rose 2% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar declined for the third session on Tuesday, as European Central Bank policymakers are considering raising interest rates by 50 basis points, which is higher than expected at their meeting on Thursday to calm record-high inflation. The DXY index bounced back to a psychological resistance of 107.500 in the first half of Tuesday, then lost upbeat momentum and dropped to a level below 106.500 during the Asia Session. The dollar lost 0.63% for the day and is still under selling pressure as the improvement in risk sentiment.

As the market got a positive mood, GBP/USD advanced by 0.35% on Tuesday. The declining inflation expectations in the US may hurt greenbacks further. The cable slipped to a daily low below 1.194 level, then regained upside traction and surged to a daily high above 1.202 level. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde may elevate interest rates by 25 or 50 bps, which will trim the Fed-ECB policy divergence. EUR/USD witnessed heavy buying and reached a daily high above 1.024 during the mid-Asia session. The pair went up 0.83% for the day.

Gold advanced by 0.14% for the day, getting to a daily high above the $1713 mark in the mid-Asia session. A pullback in the US dollar continues to support the gold price as investors move to the sidelines ahead of key central bank meetings. Meanwhile, WTI oil preserved its upside traction and reached a daily high above the $100 level during the US session.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold advances slightly on Tuesday amid the broad-based selling pressure on the US dollar.

From the technical aspect, the outlook of the bullion remains bearish as gold continues to trade within the negative territory since early July. However, gold might be primed for a rebound if gold can breach the upper bound of the descending channel. The breakout of the level would give the metal a boost towards the next resistance of $1,740. On the flip side, if gold fails to overcome the bearish channel, the downside would resume towards the trough of $1,697.

Resistance: 1,740.31, 1,766.70, 1,788.03

Support: 1,697.66

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY edges lower for the third- consecutive day on Tuesday amid subdued greenback demand. A diminishing odd for a more aggressive US Fed interest rate hike in late July continues to weigh on the greenback. From the technical perspective, the four-hour outlook of USDJPY remains bullish but bearish in the near term. Bulls are supported as USDJPY continues to trade within the ascending channel while USDJPY has dropped below the 20 Simple Moving Average, suggesting a downside momentum in the short- term. As of now, the relevant support near 137.43 would be the first defendant for bulls. A convincing break below the level might prompt aggressive selling and bring the pair to test 136.82. On the four-hour chart, as long as USDJPY holds above 136.22, the overall outlook remains upside.

Resistance: 138.18, 139.38

Support: 137.43, 136.82, 136.22

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD continues to advance toward 1.0250 as the US dollar struggles to find demand. The euro-dollar gains positive traction amid the speculation about the ECB meeting this week. Technical speaking, in the near- term, the outlook of EURUSD turns upside as it trades well above the 20 Simple Moving Average. The break of the previous resistance has given the euro dollar a boost toward the next immediate resistance of 1.0266. Despite the RSI indicator has reached an extreme level, the bullish MACD looks to attract more follow-through buyers of the euro dollar. At the time of writing, bulls might give it another attempt if the pair can successfully break above the aforementioned resistance level of 1.0266. Further price action eyes on the ECB meeting.

Resistance: 1.0266, 1.0363, 1.046

Support: 1.0146, 0.9952

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
GBPBoE Gov Bailey Speaks01:45N/A
GBPCPI (YoY) (Jun)14:009.3%
CADCore CPI (MoM) (Jun)20:30N/A
USDExisting Home Sales (Jun)22:005.38%
USDCrude Oil Inventories22:30N/A

Apple and Alphabet to Slow Hiring for a Recession Concerns. European Investors worried about Russia’s Gas Supply.

US stock declined on Monday, failing to preserve its bullish momentum after Apple Inc.’s plans to slow hiring added to the market’s concerns that the Federal Reserve’s aggressively monetary tightening against higher inflation will result in a recession. Wall Street was unable to retain its early gains and turned red despite the US encouraging data last Friday temporarily cooled recession-related concerns, as big companies like Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. both decided to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some divisions to respond to the potential recession. In the Eurozone, the energy crisis in Europe amid gas supply from Russia continued to weigh on investors’ moods as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is scheduled to reopen on Thursday following its maintenance. The Russian company Gazprom has also declared to several European natural-gas buyers that it could not guarantee gas supplies to Europe because of extraordinary circumstances.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both dropped on Monday as Apple Inc. slid more than 2% on its worst day in almost three weeks amid a worsening mood. The S&P 500 was down 0.8% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined with a 0.7% loss for the day. Eight out of eleven sectors stayed in negative territory as the health care and the utility sectors are the worst performing among all groups, rising 2.15% and 1.40%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile dropped the most with a 0.9% loss on Monday and the MSCI World index was little changed.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar kept declining to a weekly low at the beginning of the week, continuing to ease since the US encouraging data announced last Friday temporary cooled the recession-related concern. The DXY index still is in the mood bearish, and spent most of the first day of the week diving, to a weekly low of 106.9 during the late Asia session, but bounced back to 107.4 in the US afternoon.

GBP/USD advanced by 0.83% on Monday, as the improvement in risk sentiment. The cable moved up to a weekly high of 1.2020 during the late Asia session, then lost upbeat momentum and went back to around 1.1947. At the same time, EUR/USD also got a 0.63% growth on the first day of the week, to a weekly high of 1.0201, then fell back a little to around 1.0140 during the US afternoon. Not only the impact of the weak US dollar, but the high possibility of the ECB deciding to step up interest rates for the first time in 11 years make EUR/USD possibly regain bullish energy.

The Gold price remains almost unchanged on Monday. In the first half of Monday, the gold goes up to $1721, then lost momentum and fell to $1708 at the end of the day. Fed’s speak has pushed back against a 100bp hike from some notable hawks, raising the risk of a near-term short-squeeze on the Gold Price prior to the meeting. However, this could create the perfect storm for a downside continuation in gold on a hawkish outcome from the meeting.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD(4-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD extends to a daily gain near 1.2000 in the American trading session as the US dollar confronts some selling pressure caused by the expectation of the Fed.

From the technical perspective, recently upside momentum has brought GBPUSD out of the negative territory where the bearish channel is; It suggests that the outlook of GBPUSD turns bullish on the four-hour chart in the near- term. At the moment, GBPUSD is clinging to the resistance level of 1.1958; the RSI indicator on the four-hour chart stays below 70, meaning that the pair has more room on the upside. If GBPUSD can stand sustainably above 1.1958, then the next resistance of 1.2081 would be the next target.

Resistance: 1.1958, 1.2081, 1.2180

Support: 1.176

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold trades slightly positive for the day despite a better market mood.

Technical speaking, the outlook of gold skews to the downside; gold’s bulls seem to be unable to overcome the midline of the Bollinger band, staying within the lower bounce. The RSI indicator remains in the negative territory, suggesting that buyers are still on the sideline. To the upside, in order to claim an upside momentum, gold needs to first climb above the midline of the Bollinger band, and then continue to climb toward the resistance level of $1,740.31. On the flip side, failure to stay above the support level of $1,697.66 would resume gold’s decline further south.

Resistance: 1740.31, 1766.70, 1788.03

Support: 1697.66

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD advances as high as 1.0200 as the US dollar faces a selloff. The selloff of the US dollar comes after the Fed will hike interest rates by 75 bps, rather than the more aggressive option of 100 bps.

From the technical perspective, EURUSD shows an ongoing recovery from 0.9952 to 0.0174 on the four-hour chart at the time of writing. The double-bottom trading pattern has given the euro dollar a boost. The pair remains above the 20 Simple Moving Average and the upper band of the Bollinger Band, suggesting a bullish move in the near- term. At the moment, the resistance level of 1.0146 would be an obstacle for the pair to overcome as the RSI indicator has reached the overbought territory, suggesting a pullback. If the pair can successfully break the level, the recovery can extend towards 1.0266(38.2% of the Fib. Retracement.)

Resistance: 1.0146, 1.0266, 1.0363

Support: 1.0000, 0.9952

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
GBPBoE Gov Bailey Speaks01:45N/A
GBPCPI (YoY) (Jun)14:009.3%
CADCore CPI (MoM) (Jun)20:30N/A
USDExisting Home Sales (Jun)22:005.38%
USDCrude Oil Inventories22:30N/A

A 75-bps Rate Hike still an Aggressive Boost for the Economy, Recession Concerns remain

US stock surged on Friday, rebounding back and recovering some of the ground it lost at the end of a dizzying week as investors reduced their bets on a bigger rate hike by the Fed in July. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who are the two most hawkish FOMC members, said that they were not in favour of the bigger rate hike at the upcoming meeting in July. Therefore, markets are pricing in nearly 75 basis points of Fed tightening this month and down from a full-point bet earlier this week. However, the concerns about a potential recession remained as a 75 bps rate hike is still an aggressive boost for the economy. In the Eurozone, the ongoing fears over disruption to the euro-zone economy from energy supply constraints and fragmentation risks might keep weighing on investors’ sentiment, which is unlikely to ease in the coming weeks.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both advanced on Friday as the less hawkish stance from Fed officials and positive US retail sales data both lend support to the market mood. The S&P 500 was up 1.9% daily and the Nasdaq 100 also advanced with a 1.8% gain for the day. All eleven sectors stayed in positive territory as the financials and the health care sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 3.51% and 2.45%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average meanwhile climbed the most with a 2.1% gain on Friday and the MSCI World index rose 1.6%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar declined on Friday, extending the previous day’s retracement slide from a two-decade high and edged lower on the last day of the week. The DXY index remained under bearish momentum during the first half of the day, dropping to a daily low below 108 level in the US trading session. Retail Sales in the US increased by 1% in June, which was better than the market’s expectation of a 0.8% rise but failed to lift the greenback higher.

GBP/USD advanced with a 0.38% gain on Friday amid the risk-on market mood across the board. However, the UK political uncertainty and Brexit woes might overshadow the prospects for a further tightening by the Bank of England and undermine the cable. The GBP/USD dropped to a daily low below 1.181 level, but regained upside traction and extended its daily gains. Meanwhile, EUR/USD witnessed heavy buying and refreshed its daily high above the 1.009 level to trim its weekly losses in the US session. The pair was up almost 0.72% for the day.

Gold declined with a 0.16% loss for the day after dropping to a daily low below the $1700 mark in the early US trading session, as the less hawkish stance from Fed officials continued weighing on the US dollar and offered some support to the dollar-denominated gold. Meanwhile, WTI oil preserved its upside traction and moved higher to the $98 area during the US session. But fears of a potential recession have raised concerns about the fuel demand outlook.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY consolidates the biggest daily gains in a month following the US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer report. Technical speaking, USDJPY trades in the range of 138.18(76.4% of the Fib. Retracement) and 139.38(100% of the Fib. Retracement.) USDJPY witnesses some profit taking after contesting the resistance level of 139.38, the highest in 21 years. The corrective pullback erodes a part of the previous day’s strong gain. The intraday bias remains strongly bullish as the pair continues to trade above the ascending channel and above the 20 Simple Moving Average. On the downside, the breakout of the immediate support of 138.18 and the 20 Simple Moving Average would pressure USDJPY’s buyers, attracting some follow-through sellers. However, as long as USDJPY can trade above 136.22, the overall momentum remains upside.

Resistance: 139.38

Support: 137.88, 136.63, 135.77

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold steadies above $1,700 during the American session as falling US Treasury yields help limit further losses on gold. From the technical perspective, the intraday outlook of gold stays negative. Still, the psychological support of $1,700 seems to warrant some caution for bearish traders before positioning for any further drop. That being said, if the support fails to defend, then it is expected to see an accelerated decline in gold. On the contrary, gold needs to climb above $1,788 to declare its upside momentum on the four-hour chart. As the RSI indicator and the MACD remain hovering in the negative territory, the downward trajectory could further get extended.

Resistance: 1740.31, 1766.70, 1788.03

Support: 1697.66

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD extends its rebound above 1.0050 during the American session on Friday. The euro-dollar eases some selling pressure as the bet on a 100 bps interest rate hike from the Fed declines. From the technical perspective, EURUSD is moving outside the descending regression on the four-hour chart. EURUSD looks to build some upside momentum following the trading pattern of double-bottom. At the time of writing, EURUSD is expected to contest the resistance of 1.0146. In the meantime, the RSI indicator on the four-hour chart has surpassed the midline, suggesting that buyers are gradually back in the game.

Resistance: 1.0146, 1.0266, 1.0363

Support: 1.0000, 0.9952

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
JPYJapan – Marine DayAll DayNone
NZDCPI (QoQ) (Q2)06:451.5%

The US dollar rose, supported by recession fears, reaching a 20-year high of over 109

US stock continued to stay in negative territory but closed above session lows as Federal Reserve officials’ comments have eased investors’ concerns about a recession caused by the aggressive pace of monetary tightening. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that markets may have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing a 100 basis points rate hike in July, adding that they would back a 75 bps rate hike after a hot inflation report. Therefore, traders shifted their bets away from a 100 bps rate hike by the Fed this month, but people are now confused that where the economy is heading and whether we are going into recession. In the Eurozone, the Russian energy giant Gazprom said that it would not guarantee to resume the functioning of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after it was shut down for repairs. The uncertainty around gas deliveries is weighing on Europe’s economic outlook.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both dropped on Thursday as the equity market stayed under pressure amid high inflation and fears of a global recession. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% daily and the Nasdaq 100 also declined with a 0.3% loss for the day. Eight out of eleven sectors stayed in negative territory as the financials and the energy sectors are the worst performings among all groups, losing 1.92% and 1.90%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average meanwhile declined the most with a 0.5% loss on Thursday and the MSCI World index fell 0.8%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar edged higher on Thursday, continuing to derive support from the fears of a recession and refreshing its 20-year high above 109 level. The DXY index was surrounded by bullish momentum during the first half of the day but then retreated to erase some of its daily gains in the US trading session. The comments from Fed officials yesterday have cooled down expectations of a 100 bps rate hike in the US and triggered a corrective slide witnessed in the US dollar.

GBP/USD declined with a 0.57% loss on Thursday amid the risk-off market mood across the board. Political news in the United Kingdom has exerted some bearish pressure on the cable, as UK Prime Minister announced his resignation and Tories began an election process. The GBP/USD remained under bearish momentum and dropped to a daily low below the 1.177 mark, then rebounded slightly back to recover its daily losses. Meanwhile, EUR/USD preserved its downside traction and plunged to 0.9951 before recovering some ground and trimming its earlier losses in the US session. The pair was down almost 0.45% for the day.

Gold tumbled with a 1.48% loss for the day after dropping to a daily low below the $1700 mark in the early US trading session, as the rising US dollar and hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed continued to drag the precious metal lower. Meanwhile, WTI oil regained upside traction and climbed back to the $96 area during the second half of the day.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY reaches as high as the 139.00 mark, the highest level in 23 years. The currency pair is tracking the renewed upsurge as the expectation of a 100 basis points Fed interest rate hike later this month.

From the technical perspective, the intraday bias of USDJPY turns sharply upside and bullish as the pair has successfully breached the bullish channel and its psychological resistance of 137.00. The immediate resistance of 139.89 would be the next major level to challenge; the level would be a major obstacle as the RSI indicator has turned way over overbought territory, suggesting that the bid tone might happen soon. The outlook of USDJPY remains bullish on the four-hour chart as long as it trades above 135.77.

Resistance: 139.38

Support: 137.88, 136.63, 135.77

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold slumped as low as $1,697 during the American trading session amid the high demand for the greenback; gold later rebounds above $1,700, but is still down more than 1% despite dovish Fed commentary.

Technical speaking, the intraday outlook of XAUUSD remains bearish as gold continues to trade within the descending channel. At the moment, the pivotal support level of $1,697 would be a major defendant for the bright metal; the breakout of the level would scale gold southwards. Moreover, the RSI indicator has returned to the bearish range of 20 to 40 readings, indicating a fresh leg of the bearish impulsive wave ahead.

Resistance: 1740.31, 1766.70, 1788.03

Support: 1697.66

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD again contested its support level below the 1.0000 mark during the European session. But later recovers from multi-decade lows following the dovish comments from the Fed in the American session.

From the technical aspect, EURUSD remains under negative pressure despite its positive attempts. The trading pattern of a fresh lower leg hint that EURUSD continues to skew southwards. To reclaim the upside, EURUSD needs to climb above 1.0569, a positive territory. At the moment, the upside is supported by the MACD indicator as it has turned positive. On the contrary, the RSI indicator hovers around 30-40 readings, suggesting that the pair still attracts some sellers.

Resistance: 1.0243, 1.0423, 1.0569

Support: 1.0000, 0.9952

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
CNYGDP (YoY) (Q2)10:001.0%
CNY                Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)     10:004.1%
USDCore Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)20:300.6%
USD                Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)20:300.8%

VT Markets The Adjustment Of Weekly Dividend Notification

Dear Client,

Warmly reminds you that the component stocks in the stock index spot generate dividends. When dividends are distributed, VT Markets will make dividends and deductions for the clients who hold the trading products after the close of the day before the ex-dividend date.

Indices dividends will not be paid/charged as an inclusion along with the swap component. It will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, the comment for which will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please note the specific adjustments as follows:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

VT Markets Notification of Product Optimization

Dear Client,

To provide our clients with a wealth of trading options, VT Markets will optimize the stock products on Jul 18th, 2022:

Type: Stocks (US, UK, EU)
Content:
1. Added 683 stock products to the MT5 server.
2. GOOG (US) stock split.


• The specifications of the new products are shown in the table below.

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT5 software for specific data.

Friendly reminders:
1. The new Shares are only available for trading on MT5.
2. Please refer to the specification on MT5 for other details.
3. 1 GBP = 100 GBX


※ GOOG (US stock) stock split details are as follows:

Please be advised of the upcoming ALPHABET INC-CL C (GOOG) stock split that is going to take place as per the following schedule:

Ex-Date: July 18th, 2022. Common shares will trade at the new split-adjusted price.

Important implications of the ALPHABET INC-CL C Stock Split:

1. The quantity of shares of each client’s position will multiply by 20.

2. Post-split, the “open price” and “take profit/stop loss” of each position will be adjusted, which will be the original price divided by 20.

3. The estimated post-split price may be 20/10 of the EOD price on 15th, July.

4. All pending orders at the time of the split (Buy Limit, Sell Limit, Buy Stop, Sell Stop, Buy Stop Limit, Sell Stop Limit) will be cancelled.

5. All ALPHABET INC-CL holding positions and pending orders on DEMO account will be closed as a result of the stock split.

Q. What is a stock split?
A. A stock split is a corporate action taken by companies that have seen their share price increase to levels that are either too high or are beyond the price levels of similar companies in their sector, to divide their existing shares into two or more shares.

Q. Why do stocks split?
A. The primary motive is to make the shares more affordable to small investors even though the underlying value of the company has not changed. ALPHABET would like its stock to be more accessible to a broader base of investors.

Q. What is the split ratio?
A. ALPHABET also announced it will split its stock in a 20 for 1 offering.

Q. What will this split mean to investors?
A. Each share of GOOG stock that an investor owns before Ex-Date (July 18th, 2022) will be eligible for stock split. Investors will receive nineteen additional shares and the stock price will be 1/20.

Here is an example:
If an investor owns 100 shares and the market price is $2,000, $2,100 as take profit. After 20 for 1 stock split, the investor will own 100*20= 2,000 shares and the estimated post-split price would be $2,00/20 = $100, and the take profit price will adjust to $2,100/20=$105.

Q. Does the 20 for 1 stock split mean the value of my GOOG shares will increase nineteen times?
A. Unfortunately, not. As stated in the above example, the increase in the number of stocks means every share is now worth less than its previous value, precisely, it’ll be 1/20th the previous value.

Q. How do stock splits affect short sellers?
A. Stock splits do not affect short sellers in a material way. There are some changes that occur as a result of a split that affects the short position, but they don’t affect the value of the short position(s).

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected]

Inflation climbed 9.1% in June, highest since 1981

US stock continued its slide on Wednesday amid the hot US inflation report, which weighed on financial markets and boosted speculation that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more aggressively. The US Consumer Price Index soared by 9.1% YoY in June, which was much worse than the 8.8% expected and also much higher than May’s 8.6% print. The biggest surge in US consumer prices since 1981 indicated escalating inflation pressures and the Fed will keep raising rates rapidly soon. On top of that, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that everything is in play to combat price pressures, which also acted as a headwind for market sentiment. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank will start with its modest tightening in July by hiking 25 bps. Investors might keep their eyes on the interest rate differentials between the Fed and the ECB.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both dropped on Wednesday as the market expects the US Federal Reserve will likely add another 75 bps this month after the central bank has hiked rates multiple times. The S&P 500 was down 0.5% daily and the Nasdaq 100 declined with a 0.1% loss for the day. Nine out of eleven sectors stayed in negative territory as the industrials and the communication services sectors are the worst performings among all groups, losing 1.20% and 1.07%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average meanwhile declined the most with a 0.7% loss on Wednesday and the MSCI World index fell 0.4%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar edged lower on Wednesday, ending its previous rally to a 20-year high and settled marginally lower after the release of the US Consumer Price Index. The DXY index witnessed fresh buying at the initial release of CPI data but then lost its upside traction, dropping to a daily low below 107.5 level to erase most of its daily gains. The higher-than-expected CPI prints continue to reinforce the case for a more aggressive tightening path from the Federal Reserve in the next months, meanwhile, equities declined and government bond yields soared amid risk aversion.

GBP/USD advanced a little with a 0.05% gain on Wednesday despite the risk-off market mood across the board. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was climbing 0.5% in May and Industrial Production in June climbed 1.4%, but the hawkish data failed to provide support to the cable. The GBP/USD pair regained upside momentum and touched a daily high in the early US session, but then retreated to surrender its daily gains. Meanwhile, EUR/USD extended its 20-year slump to the 0.9997 level but quickly bounced back to 1.0121 in the American session. The pair was up almost 0.20% for the day.

Gold advanced with a 0.55% gain for the day after touching a daily high above $1744 during the US trading session, as the surprise in US CPI data favoured the precious metal on a mixed day of sentiment in markets. Meanwhile, WTI oil rebounded from a three-month low to $96 area amid the weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY edges higher toward its 24- year peak at the time of writing following the record-high US CPI report. In the meantime, the Bank of Japan hints at further stimulus, thus hurting the demand for the Japanese Yen.

Technical speaking, the intraday bias turns bullish after USDJPY hits the 20 Simple Moving Average; the 20 SMA becomes the first defending support for the bulls. The breakout of the resistance level of 137.86 would bring the currency further north. The current reading of the RSI indicator has not yet reached the overbought territory, suggesting that there are rooms for the pair to extend the rally. On the flip side, the support level of 135.43 would be the region that bearish momentum needs to break to bring USDJPY to the bearish projection.

Resistance: 137.86

Support: 136.36, 135.43, 134.68

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold climbs near $1,740 after the release of the US CPI report, reaching 9.1% in June, its highest in nearly 40 years. An unprecedented inflation rate in June benefits the upside of gold.

From the technical perspective, the intraday rebound has pushed toward the immediate resistance of $1,747.80; with the RSI still far from being overbought, it might attract some follow-through buyers, boosting gold’s price further north. On the contrary, any up- surges would urge caution from the upcoming trading as the overall outlook of gold still looks bearish since gold still trades within the descending channel.

Resistance: 1747.80, 1772.76, 1792.93

Support: 1707.46

USDCAD (4-Hour Chart)

USDCAD fell sharply after the Bank of Canada decides to raise interest rates by 100 basis points to 2.5%.

From the technical aspect, the intraday bias turns bearish on the four-hour chart as the bearish double-top pattern has been form. And the downside is currently contesting the support level of 1.295; the breakout of 1.295 would bring a deeper fall back to the next support of 1.2868. To the upside, suitably holding above current support should favour the USD; climbing above the midline of Bollinger Band could lead the USD back in control and reclaim its upside momentum.

Resistance: 1.3084

Support: 1.295, 1.2868, 1.2801

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
AUD                Employment Change (Jun)09:3030K
USD                Initial Jobless Claims20:30235K
USD                PPI (MoM) (Jun)20:300.8%

Fed Rate hikes may pull the economy into a recession, ECB’s plans to boost interest rates dragged the Euro lower

US stock declined on Tuesday amid fears that aggressive rate hikes will drag the economy into a recession ahead of Wednesday’s critical inflation report. Slowing economic growth and soaring inflation continued to weigh on investors’ mood across financial markets, as economists said that inflation kept heating up in June and might force the Federal Reserve to gear for another big rate hike. Meanwhile, the escalating fears about a global recession made market participants fly to the safe-haven greenback for safety and exerted bearish pressure on equity markets. In the Eurozone, macroeconomic data showed that the Economic Sentiment plunged to -53.8 in July, much worse than the previous -28 and missed expectations. The energy crisis in the area, supply chain disruptions, and the ECB’s intentions to hike interest rates both dragged the Euro lower.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, dropped on Tuesday as the market is nervous about a global recession and a possible 75 bps rate hike in July by the Fed. The S&P 500 was down 0.9% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined with a 0.6% loss for the day. All of the eleven sectors stayed in negative territory as the energy and information technology sectors are the worst-performing among all groups, losing 2.03% and 1.34%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile declined the most with a 1.0% loss on Tuesday and the MSCI World index fell 0.8%.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar remained steady on Tuesday, losing its upward momentum after touching a daily high of 108.500 level during the Asia session. The DXY index stopped the bullish atmosphere sustained for several days as investors waited for the oncoming US inflation report scheduled on Wednesday.

The GBP/USD bounced from a daily low of 1.1810 level to around 1.1900 on Tuesday as the US dollar became mild during the Asia session. The Bank of England governor said there are alternatives to 25bps rate hikes in the table, adding he expects inflation to fall sharply next year. Meanwhile, EUR/USD also rebounded from a 20-year low 1.0000 level during the Asia session to close at around 1.005 at the end of the day, the fears of a slowdown in economic growth and the aggregation of Fed accentuate the importance of the oncoming inflation report.

Gold declined with a 0.3% loss on Tuesday, although there is a rebound during the Asia session as the US dollar is mild, the gold is still under bearish pressure ahead of the CPI report announced on Wednesday and closed at $1728 at the end of the day. Meanwhile, WTI dropped nearly 8% on Tuesday, oil is falling sharply during the NY session as the concern that China could enter another round of Covid-19 lockdown.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY heads into the correction phase after reaching a 24-year peak. The corrective pullback seems to be some profiting taking ahead of the US CPI on Wednesday. Technical speaking, USDJPY witnesses some profiting- taking after hitting the upper bound of the bullish channel as well as the immediate resistance of 137.75. However, the outlook of USDJPY remains bullish as it continues to trade within the ascending channel and above the 20 Simple Moving Average. As long as USDJPY stays above the 135.00 mark, the upside momentum is expected to remain unchanged. On the flip side, failure to hold above 135.00 would erode its bullish outlook on the four-hour chart. Further price action eye on the US CPI report.

Resistance: 137.75

Support: 136.27, 135.36, 134.62 

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD extends its recovery on Tuesday, trading above 1.1900 in the second half of the day. The US dollar faces some difficulties to advance the US CPI report. From the technical perspective, GBPUSD stages a modest recovery after hitting the pivotal support of 1.1807. The intraday outlook remains bearish as the pair still trades within the descending channel. The recent recovery might be a correction due to the RSI indicator on the four-hour chart falling into the oversold territory. To claim GBPUSD’s upside momentum, it has to advance above 1.1994. On the contrary, failure to defend the support level of 1.1807 would bring the pair further south.

Resistance: 1.1994, 1.2110, 12203

Support: 1.1807

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD was once trading as low as 1.0000 but has managed to climb into a positive move during the American trading session ahead of the US inflation data. From a technical point of view, EURUSD maintains its bearish stance as its lower leg has been built; however, the psychological support of 1.0000 would be hard to compromise. The recent advance could be EURUSD’s correction as the RSI indicator has reached the oversold territory, suggesting a pullback. To the upside, EURUSD would need to climb above the midline of the Bollinger Band to claim its bullish stance in the near-term picture.

Resistance: 1.028, 1.0453, 1.0593

Support: 1.0000

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
GBPBoE Gov Bailey Speaks01:00 
NZDRBNZ Interest Rate Decision10:002.50%
NZDRBNZ Rate Statement10:00 
GBPGDP (MoM)14:000.1%
GBPGDP (YoY)14:002.7%
GBPGDP (QoQ)14:000.0%
GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (May)14:000.1%
GBPMonthly GDP 3M/3M Change14:000.0%
USDCore CPI (MoM) (Jun)20:300.6%
USDCPI (YoY) (Jun)20:308.8%
CADBoC Monetary Policy Report22:00 
CADBoC Interest Rate Decision22:002.25%
USDCrude Oil Inventories22:30-1.933M
CADBOC Press Conference23:00 

VT Markets The Notification of Trading Hours Adjustment on Weekends

Dear Client,

To provide clients with a better trading experience, VT Markets will adjust the trading session from 02:00 to 24:00 (GMT+3) every Saturday since July 16, 2022.

Please note the specific adjustment as follows:

Note: The above data is for reference only, the actual execution date may be changed, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for details.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

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