Silver price (XAG/USD) has increased, currently trading around $32.60 amid a weakened US dollar following unsatisfactory US economic data. The US Composite PMI decreased to 50.4 in February, while Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6, and Services PMI dropped to 49.7. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000, surpassing expectations.

Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support Silver, particularly with threats of new tariffs on key sectors by the US. Ongoing developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also influencing market dynamics, with EU leaders set to meet on March 6 to discuss further support for Ukraine.

In Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its ally won, shifting attention to coalition-building processes. This stable leadership is perceived as important for fiscal reforms.

Silver remains an attractive investment due to its historical use as a store of value. Its price is affected by various factors including geopolitical stability, interest rates, and industrial demand, as it is widely used in electronics and solar energy.

The relationship between Silver and Gold is notable, with Silver prices often mirroring Gold’s movements. The Gold/Silver ratio helps investors assess relative valuations of the two metals.

Given the softer US dollar, largely attributed to weaker economic data, demand for silver has stayed firm. The US Composite PMI barely held above 50, suggesting sluggish growth, while the dip in Services PMI below this threshold points to contraction. At the same time, new jobless claims exceeded forecasts, reinforcing concerns over labour market softness. All of this combined has placed downward pressure on the greenback, making metals priced in dollars more attractive to investors.

Beyond the US economic picture, geopolitical uncertainty continues to lend support to silver prices. Discussions of additional tariffs by Washington on key industries—likely with China in mind—add another layer of unpredictability. Meanwhile, the ongoing war in Ukraine remains a dominant issue, with leaders from Brussels preparing to assess further aid options in their upcoming March gathering. Any heightened tensions or fresh sanctions could increase haven demand.

Political stability in Europe also remains on watch, particularly after the CDU’s success in Germany. Since this party has traditionally been seen as fiscally disciplined, markets are now watching how any coalition-building may shape economic policy. If Germany moves towards more spending restraint, it could influence European bond yields, indirectly affecting precious metals.

Silver’s appeal extends beyond its status as an alternative to paper currencies. Industries continue to rely on it heavily, particularly in technology and renewable energy—sectors unlikely to see a slowdown in demand any time soon. With solar panel production remaining high and interest in electrification growing, industrial consumption remains a tailwind.

We tend to track silver alongside gold, as their movement patterns often align. The Gold/Silver ratio continues to be a key indicator here, helping investors gauge whether one metal is comparatively undervalued relative to the other. When this ratio shifts dramatically, it raises questions about potential corrections in either direction.

Taken together, these elements suggest that volatility in silver should not be underestimated in the near term.

Japanese inflation and PMI data suggest a rise in JGB yields, according to analysis from Capital Economics. The 10-year JGB yield is anticipated to reach 1.75% by the end of 2025, influenced by changing views on the BOJ’s policy.

It is expected that rates may increase to 1.25% by 2026. Additionally, these stronger yields could positively impact the yen, with the USD/JPY forecasted to reach 145 by the end of 2025.

If bond yields in Japan continue climbing, the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers could rise, shifting spending patterns. A higher yield reflects growing confidence that inflation will persist, pressuring policymakers to reassess their stance. The Bank of Japan’s approach in the coming months will be closely watched, as even minor shifts in guidance may prompt rapid market adjustments. How this unfolds will influence not just domestic markets but also global funds with exposure to Japanese debt.

Exchange rates are also likely to respond, with a stronger currency making exports more expensive but increasing purchasing power for those within the country. A move towards 145 against the dollar signals that expectations around monetary policy adjustments are being taken more seriously. If yields remain on this path, capital flows into Japan could increase, altering global portfolio allocations.

This environment creates a scenario in which positioning and responsiveness will matter. If markets continue to anticipate tighter policy, there may be further pressure for adjustments in bond markets. Policymakers may not provide immediate clarity, which introduces a need for flexibility in approach. Watching official statements and data releases closely will provide insight into whether these expectations are on track or require modification.

Movements in yields, currency value, and expected rate adjustments are all feeding into market expectations. The challenge is not simply in reacting to changes as they happen but in recognising where sentiment is firm and where it may shift. If forecasts prove correct, the coming years may see shifts that require careful recalibration of strategies.

Toni Gravelle, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of England Annual Research Conference. The topic will focus on managing the central bank’s balance sheet during a phase of quantitative tightening.

Media access to the event is limited, as there will be no audience Q&A or Bank of Canada webcast. However, a live stream will be available through the Bank of England, requiring interested media to email their name, job title, and company for access.

Toni’s participation in this discussion signals the importance central banks are placing on balance sheet reduction. His insights could give a better sense of how policymakers are thinking about reducing holdings of government bonds and other assets accumulated during past stimulus efforts.

One of the main concerns in such discussions is the pace at which a central bank should shrink its balance sheet without causing market volatility. If too slow, inflation risks linger. If too fast, financing conditions may tighten unexpectedly, affecting borrowing costs. Markets will be looking for indications of where policy might be leaning.

Because there won’t be an open audience Q&A, the only way to gauge reactions will be through the discussion itself. The Bank of England’s decision to provide a live stream allows direct access to Toni’s remarks. Those who want to follow along will need to register in advance.

For those watching, attention should be on not just what he says, but how his remarks align with recent messages from the Bank of Canada. Past comments from officials have stressed that balance sheet reduction should complement, rather than replace, changes in interest rates. If that theme continues, it would reaffirm that policymakers are treating these tools separately.

At the same time, there’s always the question of market impact. Traders often react to subtle shifts in language, particularly when discussions involve asset holdings. Even small adjustments in wording can move expectations, which, in turn, influence yields and exchange rates. If Toni hints at a willingness to slow reductions in response to financial stress, that could have immediate effects on bond markets.

This also comes at a time when central banks globally are weighing how long restrictive policies should stay in place. The Federal Reserve’s own balance sheet strategy has been under scrutiny, with recent discussions around whether liquidity concerns could force adjustments. If Toni acknowledges similar debates in Canada, it could shape expectations.

Given that media access is restricted, any market reaction will depend on second-hand reporting and direct interpretation from analysts following the stream. That said, once transcripts or summaries emerge, the wider financial community will dissect them for any meaningful shifts in outlook.

With these factors in mind, the coming weeks could bring adjustments to expectations. Toni’s remarks might not deliver outright surprises, but they could refine the timeline for policy decisions. That, in turn, affects how different players react across asset classes.

Switzerland’s employment level increased to 5.534 million in the fourth quarter, up from 5.528 million in the previous quarter. This rise indicates a positive trend in the job market.

In the eurozone, distinct dynamics are present for money market funds, with unsecured rates remaining elevated. Repo rates in the US are particularly attractive, with expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Gold prices remain stable within a trading range, reflecting concerns over potential global trade wars. Additionally, Solana’s price recently fell below $160, resulting in over $26 million worth of liquidations in a single day.

The increase in Switzerland’s employment level to 5.534 million signals strong job market conditions. Compared to the previous quarter, it’s a modest jump, but it reinforces stability. A healthy employment market typically supports consumer spending, which plays a key role in overall economic momentum.

Meanwhile, the eurozone presents a different scenario. Money market funds are navigating a phase where unsecured rates persist at higher levels. This points to a cautious environment where liquidity conditions are under scrutiny. A close watch on repo markets in the US is necessary, as higher returns are drawing attention. With speculation around when the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England might reduce rates, these dynamics will have a ripple effect across various asset classes.

In commodities, gold prices continue to hold steady. The metal’s range-bound movement suggests investors remain cautious about global trade risks. Historically, uncertainty in global commerce has led to increased demand for gold as a hedge, but at the moment, prices are not breaking out in either direction.

Elsewhere, Solana’s recent drop below $160 triggered widespread liquidations. More than $26 million was wiped out in a single trading session, underscoring the high volatility in digital assets. Such rapid shifts can force traders to reconsider risk exposure, particularly when sharp price declines lead to extensive position liquidations.

For those engaged in derivatives trading, it’s essential to track these movements closely. The job market data, money market trends, commodity stability, and digital asset volatility each carry implications depending on positioning. The coming weeks could see new opportunities arise, especially as central bank policies and broader macroeconomic factors come into focus.

On Monday, February 24, 2025, Trump will conduct a press conference with French President Macron at 2pm US Eastern time.

Before this, he will join a G7 leaders call at 8am, which may include remarks that could influence market reactions.

Donald will begin his day with a G7 call early in the morning, well before he stands alongside Emmanuel for the scheduled press conference. That conversation among global leaders could contain remarks that stir market movements, particularly if discussions touch on trade, tariffs, or geopolitical tensions. The proximity of these two events within the same day means traders need to closely monitor headlines from both.

Markets often react swiftly when new information emerges from high-level discussions. If Donald signals a shift in policy or hints at upcoming economic measures during the morning session, traders may see immediate moves in futures markets. On the other hand, should his statements be vague or non-committal, reaction could be more muted, with market participants waiting for further developments.

Later, when he appears beside Emmanuel in the afternoon, attention will turn to any comments related to US-France relations, broader European trade policies, or security concerns. If statements stray into economic territory, currency and bond markets could respond, particularly if any friction or alignment emerges between the two leaders. With Emmanuel’s recent stance on trade and regulation in Europe, any divergence between them may create volatility.

Given the timing of these events, traders must be prepared for potential movement in multiple waves. The G7 call may fuel immediate speculation, while the press conference could bring either confirmation or contradiction. In scenarios where Donald’s morning statements set expectations that are later reversed in the afternoon, sharp adjustments could follow.

The approach here is straightforward: stay alert. Movements in derivatives will be dictated by both tone and content. If Donald’s words in the morning suggest policy certainty, expect one reaction. If the afternoon brings unexpected shifts, there may be another.

Gold prices in Saudi Arabia rose on Monday, with the cost per gram reaching 354.53 SAR, up from 353.84 SAR on Friday. The price for gold per tola also increased, from 4,127.10 SAR to 4,135.13 SAR.

Gold prices vary depending on unit measure, with 10 grams priced at 3,545.27 SAR and a troy ounce at 11,027.09 SAR. These prices are derived from international rates adapted to the local currency and updated daily.

Gold plays a prominent role as a safe-haven asset during economic turmoil. In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth approximately $70 billion, marking the highest yearly purchase on record.

Gold’s price movements are influenced by various factors, including geopolitical instability and interest rates. The asset typically performs well when the US Dollar weakens, while higher interest rates may negatively affect its price.

This rise in gold prices aligns with broader trends we have observed globally, where investors look for stability in physical assets when financial markets appear volatile. The price adjustments reflect movements in international markets, translated into local rates. These fluctuations also tie into central bank activity, where large purchases over the past years suggest a growing preference for gold as a reserve asset.

Looking ahead, traders should keep a close watch on interest rate policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, as these have historically had a direct impact on gold prices. If rates remain high or increase further, holding gold becomes less attractive compared to assets that provide regular income, such as bonds. Conversely, if rate cuts begin to materialise, gold could see further gains as investors rotate back into non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical factors remain another component to monitor. Any further instability could drive demand higher as market participants seek safer stores of value. We have seen this pattern repeat itself historically, with gold acting as a hedge against uncertainty. With ongoing global tensions, this remains a driving force in price action.

A daily update of these movements allows traders to respond to changes with better precision. However, short-term volatility is expected, and sharp movements in the US Dollar may cause swings in valuations. While this remains a familiar dynamic, those closely tracking macroeconomic signals will be better positioned to anticipate shifts and adjust their strategies accordingly.

EUR/USD opened higher in Asia, buoyed by results from the German elections, though gains levelled off above 1.0520. The CDU/CSU secured 28.7% of the vote, while the far-right AfD received 19.8%, leading to coalition discussions focused on fiscal reforms.

Despite ongoing political uncertainties, the euro initially outperformed other currencies, supported by a broader weakness of the USD. The Swiss franc rose to a two-month high, while the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, British pound, and Canadian dollar all gained, alongside the Swedish crown and Singapore dollar reaching multi-month highs.

Additionally, the Korean won and offshore yuan showed strength, with USD/JPY dipping below 149.00 before stabilising. Oil prices remained subdued, influenced by the resumption of exports from Kurdistan, while US equity futures indicated a positive sentiment in the market.

Recent movements in foreign exchange markets suggest traders are responding decisively to shifting political and economic developments. With results from Germany triggering early momentum in the euro, the broader trend remains dependent on how coalition talks progress. Early gains in the common currency coincided with a weaker US dollar, reflecting shifts in sentiment rather than any particular change in policy expectations. The political negotiations in Berlin, now focused on fiscal policies, could introduce further adjustments in positioning should any unexpected agreements or disagreements emerge.

Against this backdrop, strength in European currencies extended beyond the euro. The Swiss franc’s move to a two-month high reinforces the idea that demand for haven assets remains elevated, even as risk appetite improves elsewhere. The broader appreciation in the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar suggests confidence in commodity-linked currencies, potentially linked to stabilising energy prices. Meanwhile, further gains in the British pound mirror the wider trend of USD softness rather than domestic factors.

In Asia, sentiment leaned towards risk-positive moves as the Korean won and offshore yuan held firm. The dip in USD/JPY below 149.00 was met with support, preventing further losses for the pair. Yen stability will likely remain a focus, particularly if adjustments in global bond yields introduce further fluctuations. For now, markets appear balanced, absorbing economic and political updates without showing clear risk aversion.

At the same time, oil prices struggled to find direction after Kurdish exports resumed, which added supply back into the market. With crude lacking clear momentum, price-sensitive assets may continue to trade in line with broader market sentiment rather than immediate supply concerns. Meanwhile, early indications from US equity futures pointed towards optimism, underlining a willingness among traders to embrace risk assets, at least in the near term.

Gold prices in the Philippines rose on Monday, with the price per gram reaching 5,461.47 PHP, up from 5,451.09 PHP on Friday. The cost per tola increased to 63,701.50 PHP from 63,580.39 PHP.

Current prices include 54,616.91 PHP for 10 grams and 169,870.80 PHP per troy ounce. Prices are subject to daily updates based on market conditions.

Factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical instability, recession fears, and interest rate fluctuations. Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, particularly when the US dollar weakens.

In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold, valued at approximately $70 billion, to their reserves, marking the highest annual purchase to date. Countries like China, India, and Turkey are increasing their reserves rapidly.

The rise in gold prices at the start of the week reflects the constant shift in market conditions. A gram of gold now costs 5,461.47 PHP, slightly higher than last Friday’s 5,451.09 PHP, while the price per tola has also seen a moderate rise from 63,580.39 PHP to 63,701.50 PHP. Whether trading in grams or tolas, the upward movement shows that demand and external pressures continue to hold weight. A troy ounce now stands at 169,870.80 PHP, reinforcing trends that traders have monitored closely over previous weeks.

Gold’s movement isn’t random—it tracks global tensions, economic concerns, and monetary policies. When uncertainty rises, so does gold’s appeal. We’ve seen time and time again that economic fears push investors towards assets they see as more stable. Interest rate decisions also shape behaviour. If rates climb, investors may shift towards interest-bearing assets, impacting demand for gold. On the other hand, when central banks hint at softer policies, gold tends to benefit.

Gold reserves held by central banks tell their own story. With 1,136 tonnes added in 2022 alone—worth around $70 billion—there’s little doubt about the long-term view some countries have taken. Central banks in China, India, and Turkey are growing their reserves at an accelerated pace, a pattern that points to hedging strategies against currency fluctuations or larger economic weaknesses.

Those trading derivatives will need to watch not just price movements but also macroeconomic indicators that influence sentiment. Inflation data, policy shifts, and geopolitical headlines can set the tone for price action. Since gold has already nudged upwards as the week begins, how it behaves in the days ahead will depend on whether buyers continue adding positions or if external factors slow momentum.

On Monday, Bank of England speakers include Deputy Governors Clare Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden, along with Monetary Policy Committee external member Swati Dhingra.

Clare Lombardelli will give opening remarks at a BoE research conference at 0900 GMT. She previously served as the OECD’s Chief Economist before her appointment as Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy from July 2024.

Dave Ramsden will chair a discussion on central bank balance sheets at 1315 GMT. Later, Swati Dhingra will address the current state of UK monetary policy at London’s Birkbeck University at 1800 GMT.

We have a busy start to the week with speeches from three Bank of England members. Clare will begin with introductory comments at a research gathering hosted by the central bank in the morning. Before stepping into her current role overseeing monetary policy, she held the position of Chief Economist at the OECD. Her remarks may not shift expectations, but given her background, her perspective on macroeconomic trends could still be worth considering.

Dave is set to lead a discussion in the early afternoon on central bank balance sheets. This topic has gained fresh attention as policymakers assess how long to maintain the central bank’s current asset holdings. His position as Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking means his words will hold weight among those watching for adjustments in liquidity management. Any remarks on the pace of quantitative tightening or potential adjustments to bond sales will need attention.

Later, Swati will speak at Birkbeck University on current monetary policy settings. She has consistently leaned towards keeping rates steady, often expressing concerns about the risks of excessive tightening. If she reinforces this view, it would align with prior comments, but any suggestion that she sees greater room for lowering borrowing costs sooner would be worth noting. While she does not set the central bank’s stance alone, her voice contributes to the overall discussion within the Monetary Policy Committee.

With these events unfolding over the course of the day, it gives markets more to digest. While speeches alone do not dictate immediate moves, they reinforce existing expectations or introduce nuances that traders may need to factor into decisions in the days ahead.

Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a year-on-year growth of 5% in the fourth quarter, improving from 4.3% previously. This reflects a positive trend in the nation’s economic performance.

In currency movements, the EUR/USD pair has seen fluctuations, recently retreating below the 1.0500 mark as market sentiments remain cautious. Meanwhile, GBP/USD shows slightly diminished gains, settling just under 1.2650 ahead of anticipated communications from Bank of England officials.

Gold prices are holding steady near record highs, influenced by trade war concerns and a weakening US dollar. Despite endorsements from high-profile individuals, Dogecoin continues to face selling pressure, trading around $0.23.

The money market landscape for 2025 presents varied dynamics across the US, Eurozone, and UK, with expectations for rate changes influencing strategies.

Singapore’s economic expansion in the fourth quarter, growing from 4.3% to 5% on a yearly basis, suggests a stable recovery. The numbers indicate that industries have sustained momentum, likely due to strong domestic investment and external trade flows. If this trajectory holds, we may see shifts in monetary policy expectations, particularly if inflation pressures build up alongside this growth.

Turning to currency movements, the weakening of EUR/USD below the 1.0500 level shows markets adjusting to shifting risk appetite. Traders appear hesitant, likely weighing economic indicators and central bank positioning for the months ahead. Meanwhile, the British pound is holding just under 1.2650, suggesting that market participants are waiting to see how the Bank of England’s policymakers signal their next move. If the upcoming statements lean towards stability or tightening, sterling may find some support—but if uncertainty persists, we could see further fluctuations.

In commodities, gold remains near its peak, reflecting investor caution amid trade tensions and increased volatility in foreign exchange markets. With the US dollar under pressure, demand for the metal seems relatively intact. If external uncertainties continue, gold’s price action could provide safe-haven opportunities.

Elsewhere, Dogecoin continues to experience selling pressure, despite endorsements from well-known figures. Its struggles may stem from broader concerns about liquidity in the crypto market, as speculative interest wanes. If support levels fail to hold, further declines remain a real possibility.

Looking ahead to 2025, monetary policy is shaping expectations across the US, Eurozone, and the UK. With rate decisions set to influence strategy, derivative traders should monitor macroeconomic data closely. Each region faces different challenges, from inflationary risks to growth concerns, which could cause varied movements across interest rate curves. These shifts will demand a reassessment of positioning to anticipate potential market volatility in fixed-income and currency derivatives. The interaction between inflation outlooks and central bank responses will be key in determining capital flows.