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Forex Market Analysis: Gold Pause and Market Challenges

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CURRENCIES:

Gold Prices on Pause: Anticipation is high as traders wait for the upcoming Federal Reserve announcement and U.S. job data, causing gold prices to enter a holding pattern.

Modest Decline Observed: Monday saw a slight drop in gold prices, with traders remaining cautious and avoiding significant positions before key economic events later this week.

Volatility Expected: The market anticipates increased volatility surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision and guidance, likely to be released Wednesday afternoon.

Technical Levels to Watch:

• Support Level: The $2,320 trendline support is critical for stabilizing the market and curbing further declines.
• Potential Bear Attack: If prices fall below $2,320, sellers might target the $2,295 mark, with a possible extended drop to $2,260, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s gains.
• Resistance and Bullish Scenario: Should gold rally from its current level, resistance is foreseen at $2,355 and $2,395—the latter being a significant trendline from the all-time high. A break above these could push prices toward $2,420 and potentially retest last week’s peak.

STOCK MARKET:

Stock Market Challenges: Despite better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, the stock market is struggling to achieve consistent gains due to rising Treasury yields.

Impact of Treasury Yields: The increase in Treasury yields is now seen as a systemic issue for equities, reminiscent of 2023 when higher yields caused significant stock market declines.

10-year Treasury Yield: It has risen over 40 basis points since the beginning of April, reaching 4.63%, its highest since November 2023. Concurrently, the S&P 500 has dropped about 3%.

2-year Treasury Yield: Recently approached 5%, a critical level that previously impacted stocks negatively; currently at 4.98%.

Federal Reserve’s Role: Market expectations have shifted dramatically from anticipating nearly seven rate cuts in 2024 to just one, largely due to recent strong inflation data.

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