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Forex Market Analysis: Nvidia’s Strength Drives Record Highs; Eyes on PCE Data Amidst USD Equilibrium

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CURRENCIES:

• Market confidence surged, led by Nvidia’s strong Q1 2024 forecast.
• Nvidia’s success propelled the S&P 500 to record highs; Japanese index topped after 34 years.
• Gold prices climbed, and the USD sought equilibrium amidst positive market sentiments.
• Anticipated January PCE inflation results could prompt continued USD decline and boost gold.
• Sterling remained strong with minimal impactful data expected to affect its position.
• The Euro’s rally against major G7 currencies may be losing momentum as the week ended.

STOCK MARKET:

Economic data: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (-27.4 previously); New home sales, January (684,000 annualized rate expected, 664,000 previously); New home sales, month-over-month, January (+3% expected, +8% previously)

Earnings: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Freshpet (FRPT), Hims & Hers (HIMS), iRobot (IRBT), Workday (WDAY), Zoom (ZM)

• Focus on new inflation data this week, particularly the PCE index reading on Thursday.
• S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs, with about 1% weekly gains.
• Nasdaq Composite also up, with a 0.6% increase.
• Upcoming inflation data could challenge recent stock market highs.
• Consumer confidence, manufacturing updates, and earnings from Salesforce, Lowe’s, Macy’s, Okta, and Best Buy are anticipated.
• A previous CPI report caused a market sell-off; a similar reaction might occur with the PCE inflation report.
• Economists expect January’s “core” PCE at 2.4% annually and 0.4% monthly, signaling potential inflation concerns.
• Market now anticipates three interest rate cuts in 2024, adjusting from previous expectations.
• Retail sector earnings in focus, with consumer spending trends under examination.
• Federal Reserve’s latest decision keeps interest rates unchanged.
• Citi’s analysis suggests the market hasn’t reached “euphoria” levels yet, indicating potential for further growth.

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