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Following the German election results, the euro gains traction, buoyed by market optimism.

Germany’s Federal election has seen the CDU/CSU secure 28.7% of the votes, while the far-right AfD garnered 19.8%, according to ZDF projections. Market participants are closely monitoring coalition formation to assess potential fiscal reform.

Several coalition options are possible, including a CDU-SPD-Greens alliance. The AfD’s performance was weaker than anticipated, which may influence future policy directions.

Concerns over Germany’s “debt brake” persist, with limited scope for reform amid rising defence spending pressures. The election results are expected to impact European defence funding and could initiate debt brake reforms that may bolster the euro and eurozone stocks.

The uncertain entry of the FDP into parliament may complicate coalition negotiations, which could delay reforms and introduce market unpredictability. Following the election result, the EUR/USD has experienced a modest increase, reflecting optimism for improved economic conditions.

With the political direction of Germany now clearer, attention turns to policy negotiations that may influence markets in the weeks ahead. How a coalition comes together and the compromises made along the way will shape expectations for European fiscal policy.

Friedrich will need to navigate delicate talks, especially given the FDP’s uncertain presence in parliament. Without their input, discussions on tax cuts and budget plans may shift, introducing the possibility of heavier state intervention. If the FDP clears the threshold, their role in any alliance could act as a stabilising factor against expansive fiscal measures. Traders considering positioning around German debt or the euro should be watching these developments closely.

One of the core points of concern remains restrictions on borrowing. Defence expenditures are set to rise, putting pressure on fiscal limitations that some believe are too rigid. Reform would require broad support, which remains uncertain given the CDU and other key players’ cautious stance. A coalition deal that signals minor changes rather than a structural overhaul could constrain fiscal flexibility in the years ahead, something that may influence bond markets across Europe.

The AfD underperformed relative to earlier polling, which may indicate shifts in voter sentiment or weaknesses in their campaign strategy. While this reduces concerns about radical policy moves, their strength in Eastern states could still make them influential at regional levels. Investors in companies with exposure to German domestic policy—especially those in regulated industries—might be factoring in a somewhat more stable policy climate than initially expected.

Meanwhile, the upward movement in EUR/USD following the results suggests market confidence in an outcome that avoids extreme policy shifts. Yet, this relief could be short-lived if coalition talks drag on without clear commitments. Ursula’s team will need to manage expectations carefully, particularly as speculation around European Central Bank policy and broader EU fiscal coordination continues.

Beyond Germany, the broader European defence sector may see renewed attention. If defence spending commitments become firmer following this election, companies operating in this space could attract fresh interest. Investors will be weighing whether increased military budgets translate into stronger stock performance or whether regulatory constraints and procurement delays temper those expectations.

In the coming days, volatility may persist in German equities, particularly for firms sensitive to domestic policy decisions. Currency markets will reflect not just election outcomes but also wider economic sentiment, especially if coalition discussions progress slower than expected. For those trading short-term movements, the balance between political clarity and market confidence will be essential to assess carefully.

On 24 February 2025, New Zealand’s Q4 retail sales may influence future Reserve Bank cuts.

New Zealand’s retail sales for the fourth quarter will be closely monitored. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is anticipated to implement two or three cuts of 25 basis points by July.

If sales exceed expectations, it could shift forecasts towards two reductions instead of three. Conversely, disappointing sales results could suggest a stronger case for three cuts.

Retail sales in New Zealand will play a key role in shaping expectations for upcoming decisions by the Reserve Bank. With forecasts pointing towards a reduction in interest rates, the strength of consumer spending may determine whether adjustments lean towards two cuts or extend to three by mid-year.

If reported sales figures surpass predictions, the argument for only two reductions would gain support. Such an outcome would indicate that consumption remains relatively strong despite prior economic adjustments. On the other hand, if spending data falls short, it would reinforce the case for a total of three cuts, as softer demand might suggest that monetary policy needs to offer further support.

Market participants will need to weigh these figures carefully. Changes in rate expectations tend to influence currency valuation, short-term bond yields, and broader financial sentiment. Investors should be prepared for market swings if the actual data deviates from consensus projections.

Ahead of this release, attention will remain on signals from the Reserve Bank itself. Shifts in messaging, particularly in response to domestic conditions, could either reinforce or challenge existing forecasts. Clarity from policymakers would provide stronger guidance, but if uncertainty persists, traders must remain agile.

Beyond sales data, other economic indicators may contribute to adjusting rate expectations. Inflation trends, labour market developments, and external influences on the economy will need continued scrutiny. Each of these elements could either accelerate or slow the pace of monetary adjustments.

With expectations leaning towards a loosening cycle, any signs of resilience in consumer activity may alter timing and magnitude. If spending holds up better than expected, the urgency for deeper cuts diminishes. However, should demand falter, pressure for an accommodative stance intensifies.

Given these shifting dynamics, positioning in interest rate-sensitive instruments will require close attention. Staying ahead of adjustments means continuously evaluating new information, as markets will react swiftly to any shift in expectations.

On Monday morning, expect volatile forex prices due to low market liquidity as Asia opens.

Market liquidity remains low at the start of the new FX week, with prices subject to fluctuations as more Asian centres become active. Indicative exchange rates show minimal changes from late Friday:

* EUR/USD 1.0483
* USD/JPY 149.21
* GBP/USD 1.2652
* USD/CHF 0.8981
* USD/CAD 1.4224
* AUD/USD 0.6367
* NZD/USD 0.5742

The recent German election results indicate a Conservative victory but suggest challenging coalition discussions ahead. This news has led to a slight increase in the value of the euro.

Although price swings are to be expected when market liquidity remains thin, we should pay close attention to how trading volumes increase as Asia fully joins the session. Monday mornings often bring muted activity, but as more participants engage, any pent-up interest from the weekend can begin to show up in price shifts.

With the euro barely moving after the German election results, the reaction appears measured for now. A Conservative win was anticipated, yet attention now shifts to the ongoing coalition talks. If negotiations reveal deep divisions, uncertainty could weigh on the common currency. Any indication of a prolonged or unstable government formation process may deter confidence. That said, unless major political turbulence emerges, initial investor caution may fade in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the dollar maintains strength across several pairs. USD/JPY remains near 149, suggesting markets continue to monitor intervention risks from policymakers in Tokyo. Authorities have previously stepped in when abrupt yen weakness occurred, meaning traders will remain alert for any rhetorical shifts from officials. If verbal warnings escalate or actual intervention materialises, price action could become erratic in short bursts.

Sterling holds near 1.2650 against the dollar, with little movement so far. Market focus stays on the upcoming economic data releases from the UK, which could provide fresh direction. Recent inflation readings suggested gradual moderation, but any surprises here could quickly shift momentum. Should figures indicate persistent price pressures, speculation over policy responses might follow.

Commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, show few signs of breaking away from their lower ranges. The lack of strong buying momentum reflects ongoing caution around economic growth concerns. Without clearer signals from global demand trends, interest in pushing these pairs higher remains limited.

With traders assessing political developments in Europe, intervention risks in Japan, and economic indicators from key regions, market behaviour will likely hinge on new information. At this stage, patience matters more than chasing short-lived price moves.

Recent concerns surround Microsoft’s data centre spending cuts and potential oversupply in the market.

TD notes that AI-related spending and data centre capital expenditures have driven market activity, though concerns are emerging regarding financial viability. Reports indicate that Microsoft has cancelled leases in the US, reducing capacity by a couple of hundred megawatts with at least two private operators.

Further checks reveal that Microsoft has deferred converting several agreements into leases, which traditionally leads to data centre construction. There are indications of a slowdown in international spending reallocated to the US, hinting at a potential oversupply scenario.

Additionally, Microsoft has exited negotiations for multiple large deals and allowed several letters of intent to expire. Their scaling back seems connected to shifting demands related to OpenAI workloads, suggesting excess capacity against a new forecast.

Despite worries over a decrease in AI investment and market bubble deflation, CEO Satya Nadella maintains that hyperscalers will thrive in high-demand computing environments. Uncertainties surrounding the Microsoft and OpenAI partnership continue to contribute to market apprehensions.

Given the pullback in leasing activity, it’s becoming clear that previous growth forecasts might have been optimistic. If spending adjustments continue at this pace, we may see ripple effects across broader market expectations. Developers and financiers who were banking on sustained expansion could face a reassessment of near-term commitments.

Satya’s stance remains firm on long-term demand, but actions speak louder than words. Deferring lease conversions and scrapping negotiations signal a recalibration of capital outlays. While high-performance computing loads remain a priority, they’re no longer expanding at the breakneck pace that many anticipated. The shifting allocation of resources suggests that expenditure is being fine-tuned rather than outright abandoned.

The decision to focus heavier investment within US markets, at the expense of international projects, reflects a reassessment of risk. If excess capacity builds up domestically, pricing power may come under pressure. For firms that have structured agreements around aggressive growth assumptions, these adjustments may lead to repricing or even unused commitments.

Meanwhile, uncertainty around OpenAI’s compute demands continues to create unease. If current projections prove unreliable and workloads require fewer resources than expected, further cutbacks could follow. Those monitoring capacity trends should remain particularly attentive to any downward revisions in cloud infrastructure guidance. Even subtle shifts in deployment schedules could be an early indication of further tightening.

Broader market sentiment is at a delicate point. On one hand, confidence in AI-driven expansion remains, bolstered by ongoing advances in model training and inference workloads. On the other, any deviation from prior projections could dampen enthusiasm. The more data that emerges around spending discipline, the easier it will be to pinpoint whether this is a temporary slowing or the start of a longer adjustment period.

Economic conditions will also play a role. If capital costs remain elevated, operators may become more discerning with large-scale commitments. Balancing growth with efficiency will be increasingly important, particularly as cautious investors scrutinise return expectations more closely. The extent to which firms can fine-tune expenditures without sacrificing future capability will determine how this recalibration unfolds in the weeks ahead.

AMD stock analysis indicates two potential scenarios; patience and careful execution of purchases recommended.

AMD’s stock is under analysis as it approaches NVIDIA’s earnings report. Two potential movements are noted: support may form around $109-$110 for a breakout push, or it could drop to $106-$103 before recovery.

A structured buying plan has been implemented, with two of three buy orders already executed. The first buy zone is at $111.08 for 20 shares, followed by a second at $106.87 for 40 shares, and a pending third at $101.38 for 60 shares.

The calculated Weighted Average Entry Price (WAP) for full execution is $104.13, with a stop-loss set at $95.80. Key support and resistance levels should be monitored for future price direction. Patience is advised for those considering further investment.

The price action ahead is drawing attention. With the stock approaching a threshold where it could either find footing or slip further before regaining ground, traders attentive to these scenarios are preparing accordingly. The outlined approach is structured around measured entries, reducing exposure to abrupt fluctuations.

The first two purchase orders have already been fulfilled, one at $111.08 and another at $106.87, acquiring 20 and 40 shares, respectively. A third remains open at $101.38 for 60 shares, ready to complete the plan if the stock experiences additional weakness. This method ensures entries are not overly dependent on a single price point, distributing risk more effectively.

A complete fill of the orders would set the Weighted Average Entry Price at $104.13, offering a calculated cost basis for the position. If downward movement extends beyond expectations, protection is in place, with the stop-loss defined at $95.80. Observing how price behaves around support near $109-$110, and whether deeper levels near $106-$103 are briefly visited, will provide insight into potential trading opportunities.

Patience is necessary. Market responses to upcoming announcements could influence whether further investment is warranted. Careful attention should be paid to how price interacts with key zones already identified. Staying flexible while adhering to the existing framework remains the priority.

As DeepSeek gains traction, NVIDIA’s earnings could be influenced by shifting AI competition dynamics.

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, has gained attention for its efficient AI model design and commitment to open-source technology. By employing a Mixture-of-Experts architecture, it claims to train AI models at a fraction of the typical cost, utilising reinforcement learning to enhance performance over time.

DeepSeek’s open-source approach allows broader access to advanced AI, encouraging innovation while raising concerns about potential misuse. Its efficiency could threaten NVIDIA’s demand for high-end GPUs if companies opt for cost-effective alternatives.

Additionally, DeepSeek’s rise could foster greater AI integration across various industries. The ongoing competition in AI represents important geopolitical implications and challenges existing industry norms, making the future of AI’s landscape an area of keen interest as NVIDIA prepares to report earnings on February 26.

DeepSeek’s approach is based on a model design that relies on Mixture-of-Experts, enabling it to reduce costs compared to conventional training methods. This structure distributes computational tasks across specialised components rather than requiring a single network to handle everything. By refining these models through reinforcement learning, it can improve accuracy and efficiency over time. Given the high computational expenses typically associated with training advanced AI systems, any approach that cuts costs while maintaining performance could shift demand patterns within the hardware sector.

The company’s commitment to open access makes its technology widely available, potentially accelerating adoption in various industries. While this encourages collaboration and technological progress, it also opens the door to unintended applications beyond its control. This is a recurring concern whenever advanced AI tools become easily accessible. For businesses, the availability of such models could lower entry barriers, making cutting-edge AI more attainable for smaller firms that might otherwise struggle with resource constraints.

For NVIDIA and entities reliant on AI infrastructure, rising efficiency in model training presents a direct challenge. High-performance GPUs are a key component in developing and running sophisticated AI, but cost-conscious firms may explore alternatives if powerful models can be trained with reduced hardware demands. If more organisations embrace architectures that optimise resources, the need for top-tier chips could shift, altering demand forecasts. In the short term, this may not cause immediate disruptions, but long-term adoption patterns could diverge from previous expectations.

Beyond individual companies, broader industry dynamics could see adjustments if more firms follow a similar methodology. AI has already been expanding into numerous fields, from finance to healthcare, and any development that increases accessibility could accelerate this trend. The geopolitical dimension is equally relevant, as nations and corporations compete over advancements in artificial intelligence. Control over AI capabilities has repeatedly surfaced as a strategic priority, meaning any shift in accessibility or efficiency will likely draw attention from multiple stakeholders.

As NVIDIA’s earnings report on 26 February approaches, traders focusing on derivatives linked to AI firms must weigh these factors. Uncertainties surrounding hardware demand, regulatory considerations tied to open-source models, and broader shifts in industry adoption all contribute to potential price movements. Keeping a close watch on industry reaction, corporate guidance, and any adjustments in forward-looking statements will be necessary for those navigating this period.

Key economic indicators this week include US Consumer Confidence, Australian CPI, and Tokyo Core CPI.

The upcoming week features key economic events across various countries. Monday marks the German IFO index, followed by US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, projected at 103.0, down from 104.1.

On Wednesday, the Australian Monthly CPI is expected to remain stable at 2.5%. The RBA’s recent interest rate cut was paired with cautious guidance amid solid labour market data.

Thursday includes multiple US reports: Jobless Claims are anticipated at 220K, maintaining the range seen since 2022. Finally, Friday will present rates such as Tokyo Core CPI at 2.3% and US PCE projected at 2.5%.

The data releases in the days ahead will provide insight into both inflation trends and consumer sentiment, shaping expectations for monetary policy adjustments.

Germany’s IFO index, out on Monday, serves as a measure of business sentiment, revealing how firms perceive current conditions and their outlook for the future. Any deviation from forecasts could prompt recalibration of interest rate expectations for the eurozone. A weaker reading may fuel conversations about possible policy support, while a stronger print could reinforce confidence in existing rate settings.

Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence report follows, offering a gauge on whether households remain optimistic despite persistent cost pressures. A reading lower than the previous 104.1 suggests growing concern, which could translate into lower consumer spending down the line. That, in turn, may be factored into expectations around future Federal Reserve movements, given the economy’s reliance on consumption.

Midweek, Australia’s Monthly CPI holds steady at an expected 2.5%, highlighting an inflation environment that remains within the central bank’s comfort zone. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept a cautious stance, acknowledging robust labour market conditions while proceeding with rate adjustments. Any unexpected shift in inflation may force a re-evaluation of policy assumptions.

Thursday brings a collection of US data, with jobless claims holding at 220K. This reinforces the view that the labour market remains firm, as figures have stayed within a tight band for over two years. Stability in this area suggests that wage pressures may persist, which could complicate inflation management.

Friday’s data releases will add final points of reference for the week, including Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI at 2.3%—a key leading indicator for nationwide price trends. Additionally, the US PCE index is expected at 2.5%, closely tracked by policymakers as a preferred inflation measure. If PCE data diverges from forecasts, markets will swiftly reassess interest rate expectations.

The days ahead will dictate whether central banks shift their rhetoric, reinforcing existing expectations or prompting fresh policy discussions. Understanding these movements will allow us to adapt before real adjustments take place.

The Canadian dollar may improve if specific favourable conditions are met, despite various risks.

The Canadian dollar is affected by various factors, including tariffs, trade dynamics, global economic growth, housing market conditions, political stability, and energy prices.

Despite potential challenges, there is an opportunity for improvement. The article refers to specific elements that could influence the value of the loonie and outlines conditions necessary for a potential recovery.

For a more detailed analysis of these influences and additional insights, further information can be found in the referenced piece on the Canadian dollar’s outlook.

A variety of forces shape the direction of the Canadian dollar. Tariffs influence trade costs, affecting the ability of businesses to compete internationally. Global economic conditions determine demand for exports, while domestic housing trends indicate financial stability and consumer confidence. Political factors affect long-term investment sentiment, and energy prices play a role because oil remains a major export. When all of these factors shift—whether separately or at the same time—markets react accordingly.

Beneath these broader movements are specific scenarios that could lead to change. If trade barriers ease or demand for Canadian commodities strengthens, the currency could reflect this adjustment. A rise in oil prices often boosts export revenues, improving economic prospects. Political stability reassures investors, increasing the appeal of Canadian assets. However, any strain in these areas creates uncertainty, which markets price in immediately.

We are watching particular developments that hold weight in the weeks ahead. Economic reports will reveal whether underlying conditions support currency stabilisation. External factors such as central bank decisions abroad could drive fund flows into or out of Canadian assets, depending on how interest rate expectations shift. These elements do not operate in isolation. One change often sets off reactions elsewhere, influencing sentiment across different sectors.

When evaluating opportunities, it is essential to keep an eye on interest rate trends. Differences in borrowing costs between countries can either draw capital into Canada or push it elsewhere. The direction of oil prices remains another key factor. If energy demand weakens globally, pressure on the currency could increase. Trade relationships also require close observation, as shifts in policy can impact export growth and investor confidence.

Understanding how these moving pieces interact allows for informed responses. Some factors take time to develop, while others cause immediate reactions in the markets. Monitoring data releases and global policy decisions offers clarity, making it easier to adapt. Observing shifts early can provide an advantage in anticipating how market conditions will unfold.

The debate over Bitcoin versus Ethereum persists, with both cryptocurrencies displaying unique investment traits for 2025.

Bitcoin has received more institutional interest than Ethereum, attributed to its status as a store of value and clearer regulations. Despite this, the BTC/ETH ratio has increased by over 221% in 763 days, indicating Bitcoin’s dominance.

Bitcoin’s appeal lies in its fixed supply, making it attractive for hedging against inflation. The approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in early 2024 led to substantial institutional inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs holding 3.7% of its market cap compared to Ethereum’s 3.1%.

The BTC/ETH ratio is at a resistance level of 43, and Bitcoin’s relative strength index is nearing overbought territory. As institutional interest in Ethereum rises, the increase in Ethereum ETF holdings from 4.8% to 14.5% suggests potential for an ETH rally.

Ethereum’s foundational role in smart contracts and DeFi positions it to benefit from broader market trends. Potential Ethereum ETF approvals in 2025 could further enhance its demand.

Investors seeking stability might prefer Bitcoin, while those looking for higher returns may consider Ethereum. A balanced portfolio can accommodate both assets, with strategies varying based on risk tolerance.

Key indicators to watch include the BTC/ETH ratio, institutional ETF flows, macroeconomic trends, and Ethereum’s staking and DeFi growth. Bitcoin often experiences a slowdown post-halving, potentially allowing Ethereum to gain traction. A trend reversal could occur in 2025, requiring careful observation.

Strengthening Bitcoin’s position, the steady influx of funds into its exchange-traded funds highlights the confidence institutional investors place in its long-term viability. The asset’s finite supply and well-established regulatory framework provide a level of certainty that traditional financial entities find appealing. As a result, allocations continue to favour it over Ethereum. Even so, the shifting proportion of institutional holdings suggests a gradual but noticeable adjustment.

Ethereum, supported by expanding ETF interest, is experiencing higher relative demand. Its utility-driven nature makes it distinct, offering exposure to decentralised finance and smart contract applications. The market’s willingness to absorb growing ETF allocations indicates a longer-term shift in perception. While Bitcoin remains the preferred asset for those looking for stability, Ethereum’s increasing presence in institutional portfolios suggests a reassessment of its potential.

With the BTC/ETH ratio lingering at resistance, price action in the coming weeks needs to be closely observed. A prolonged period above this threshold could further cement Bitcoin’s strength. However, a rejection would imply an opportunity for Ethereum to regain ground. The historical cyclicality of these movements adds weight to the argument that a rebalancing may be overdue. Institutional positioning will heavily influence this dynamic, making fund flow data an essential metric to track.

Other macroeconomic forces remain at play as well. Market liquidity, inflation readings, and central bank policy decisions could introduce fluctuations. A restrained liquidity environment has typically benefitted Bitcoin due to its harder monetary attributes, while Ethereum tends to perform better in periods of expansion. With future monetary policy still uncertain, adjustments to existing strategies may be needed.

Ethereum’s staking growth should not be overlooked either. More assets entering staking reduce liquid supply, potentially amplifying price movements, particularly if demand continues to rise. Similarly, DeFi-related adoption ties Ethereum closer to broader risk sentiment in financial markets. These evolving factors could dictate institutional behaviour, reinforcing the importance of monitoring activity across multiple sectors.

Historical trends suggest that Bitcoin tends to consolidate following a halving event, giving other assets time to advance. If this pattern persists, Ethereum could be positioned to gain in the coming months. Investors may look to adjust their exposure accordingly, with any changes in the trend likely requiring prompt responses. Positioning should take into account near-term movements without losing sight of the broader macroeconomic landscape.

Gold prices dipped on Friday, yet remain on track for eight consecutive weeks of increases.

Gold prices decreased slightly on Friday but are set to close the week positively, achieving eight consecutive weeks of gains, reaching an all-time high of $2,954. As of now, XAU/USD is trading at $2,940, down 0.15%.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies on various goods have contributed to the rise in gold prices as demand for safe-haven assets increased amid trade policy uncertainties. Meanwhile, progress in the Russia-Ukraine discussions has somewhat alleviated market tensions.

US business activity showed mixed results; while the manufacturing PMI improved, the Services PMI experienced its first decline since January 2023. Additionally, Existing Home Sales dropped, and consumer sentiment worsened according to the University of Michigan data.

Although gold prices remain upwardly biased, potential exhaustion in the trend is indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Key support levels include $2,900, while resistance levels are found at $2,950 and $3,000.

Gold is an important historical asset, often serving as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Central banks, being the largest holders of gold, diversify their reserves to strengthen their economies and currencies during turbulent periods.

The price of gold often moves inversely with the US Dollar and Treasuries. Factors such as geopolitical instability and lower interest rates typically lead to gold price increases, while market rallies may exert downward pressure.

Overall, various elements influence gold prices, requiring investors to remain aware of market dynamics and conditions.

Even with Friday’s marginal pullback, gold remains on track for its eighth weekly gain, reinforcing its position as a sought-after asset. The peak of $2,954 underlines the strong buying demand, though Friday’s slight dip to $2,940 suggests some traders are taking profits. The trend remains bullish, but signs of hesitation at these levels should not be dismissed too quickly.

Donald’s trade policies have played a role in pushing gold higher, with tariffs triggering uncertainty that drives investors toward safer assets. At the same time, discussions in Eastern Europe appear to have eased some concerns, but not enough to alter gold’s broader trajectory. With safe-haven demand moderating slightly, any further developments in these talks could weigh on the metal or, conversely, reinforce its appeal should tensions escalate again.

Economic data released in the United States has painted a mixed picture. Manufacturing activity showed a rebound, offering some relief, yet the services sector contracted for the first time in well over a year. Housing market numbers also disappointed, with existing home sales falling. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, deteriorated, reflecting growing worries about inflation and broader economic conditions. These figures, collectively, suggest that uncertainty remains, which historically tends to keep gold well-supported.

Technically, prices continue to lean higher, but momentum may be wavering. The RSI is approaching levels that typically indicate overextension, which means a potential short-term cooldown cannot be ruled out. Should a pullback occur, the $2,900 level stands as the first key support area. On the upside, buyers face resistance close to $2,950, with $3,000 being the next test should bullish momentum persist.

Long-term, gold’s role remains unchanged. Central banks continue to prioritise it when managing reserves, especially when economic conditions appear unstable. They see it as both a hedge and a stabilising factor for their currency holdings. These institutions have been consistently adding to their reserves, highlighting their confidence in gold’s resilience.

Gold continues to react to movements in the US dollar and government bonds. Typically, when the American currency weakens or Treasury yields decline, gold benefits. Geopolitical risks and monetary policy easing also tend to push prices higher, whereas a strong equities rally might divert demand elsewhere. Right now, multiple factors are at play, which makes careful observation of these interconnected elements all the more important in the weeks ahead.

With all these influences in motion, understanding both the immediate technical setup and the broader economic signals will be essential. Gold has had a strong run, but not without potential obstacles ahead. Those engaged in trading need to remain nimble while keeping an eye on both price action and external forces that could shift the current trajectory.

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