China aims to maintain a stable yuan exchange rate, with the People’s Bank of China effectively managing this. The country has set an economic growth target of ‘around 5%’ for 2025, which has garnered considerable attention.

Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2025 is set at approximately 2%. In 2025, 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special T bonds will be issued, increasing from 1 trillion in 2024.

Proactive Fiscal Policy

A more proactive fiscal policy is planned, with an emphasis on stability within property and stock markets. The consumer trade-in stimulus remains at 300 billion yuan, reduced from previous expectations of 800 billion.

This approach underscores China’s commitment to maintaining economic stability while carefully navigating monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China has continued to manage the yuan closely, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations that could disrupt financial markets. A growth target of around 5% suggests a balance between ambition and realism, recognising external pressures while maintaining confidence in domestic expansion.

The 2% Consumer Price Index target indicates that authorities expect manageable inflation levels. This aligns with the broader goal of ensuring stability in consumer purchasing power while avoiding excessive monetary tightening. Inflation rates that stray too far from this benchmark could prompt adjustments in policy tools, with authorities likely to intervene if conditions warrant.

The decision to raise ultra-long special T bond issuance to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, up from 1 trillion the previous year, signals a strategic move towards bolstering government spending. This increase suggests a continued effort to support long-term infrastructure and economic activity without abruptly shifting fiscal direction. Given recent concerns in real estate and equities, authorities have made clear their preference for a steady approach rather than sudden policy shifts.

With fiscal policy set to be more proactive, there is a clear emphasis on keeping financial markets stable while maintaining consumer and investor confidence. Policymakers remain mindful of previous volatility in property and stock sectors, favouring measures that reinforce broader economic health rather than risk fueling uncertainty.

Consumer Trade In Stimulus

The consumer trade-in stimulus, now standing at 300 billion yuan rather than the previously discussed 800 billion, reflects a more restrained approach towards direct economic intervention. While it remains a sizeable support measure, this reduction suggests a reassessment of how much stimulus is needed, likely taking into account broader fiscal policy considerations and current consumption patterns.

Those active in speculative markets should closely monitor China’s approach as authorities continue to balance economic resilience with controlled policy adjustments. The measures outlined indicate a deliberate effort to sustain growth without resorting to excessive intervention, reinforcing the need for careful assessment of near-term shifts in fiscal and monetary policy.

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Singapore’s retail sales year-on-year rose notably from -2.9% to 4.5% in January, indicating a positive shift in consumer spending.

The data illustrates an increase in demand across various sectors, contributing to the overall economic recovery.

Financial Market Movements

In related financial news, the EUR/USD pair surged 1.4%, driven by market speculation about potential changes in US tariff policies.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains stable near 1.2790, amidst concerns regarding the US economic outlook.

Gold prices are maintaining above $2,900, while Bitcoin is stabilising around $87,600, with both cryptocurrencies recovering from recent lows.

Additionally, new 25% tariffs have been imposed by the US on Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on China.

A rise from -2.9% to 4.5% in Singapore’s retail sales year-on-year suggests consumer confidence is improving. This points to higher discretionary spending, which tends to support broader economic growth. With various sectors experiencing increased demand, this also hints at a healthier business environment.

In the currency markets, the 1.4% jump in the EUR/USD pair highlights the weight traders place on potential adjustments to US trade policies. Such moves reflect expectations that tariff revisions could shift capital flows and impact corporate earnings. By contrast, Sterling’s stability around 1.2790 signals continued hesitancy, with investors digesting concerns over the US economic direction before making decisive moves.

Gold And Cryptocurrency Trends

Precious metals and digital assets remain a topic of interest, with gold holding firm above $2,900. Bitcoin, after recent setbacks, is showing resilience near $87,600. These price levels suggest that, despite volatility, traders see enduring demand. For gold, inflation and monetary policy speculation remain key drivers, while Bitcoin’s steadiness indicates the asset continues to find support following its recent downturn.

Elsewhere, Washington has introduced fresh 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff targeting China. This marks a shift that could influence trade partnerships while affecting manufacturing and supply chains. For traders, heightened caution may be warranted, as these measures will likely filter through to currency and commodity markets over the next few weeks.

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US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick spoke with Ontario Premier Doug Ford in an attempt to ease escalating tensions between the US and Canada. This conversation followed Ontario’s threat to halt US electricity exports, among other actions.

Lutnick urged Ford to tone down aggressive rhetoric; however, Ford refused and indicated he would intensify his stance. Lutnick mentioned that comments from Canadian officials, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s remark on tariffs, have been perceived as offensive to the US president. Ford asserted his commitment to combatting fentanyl trafficking and expressed a desire for cooperation with both Lutnick and Trudeau.

Rising Tensions Between Us And Canada

This exchange underscores the widening gap between the two governments, with trade policies and security concerns becoming points of contention. Ford’s remarks demonstrate Ontario’s willingness to escalate pressure, even at the risk of straining economic ties. His refusal to back down signals that tensions may intensify, particularly if no diplomatic middle ground is reached in the short term.

From our perspective, Lutnick’s request for restraint suggests growing US unease over Ontario’s proposed measures, especially the threat to halt electricity exports. Ford’s insistence on maintaining his position indicates that Canadian leaders are pursuing leverage rather than seeking immediate de-escalation. The mention of fentanyl smuggling further complicates discussions, introducing security considerations alongside economic disputes.

For those assessing potential shifts in policy, it’s important to watch how comments from both sides translate into concrete actions. Higher tensions could lead to measures affecting companies dependent on cross-border trade, while any sign of compromise may offer temporary relief. Trudeau’s previous remarks on tariffs remain a point of friction, and reactions from Washington in the coming weeks will show whether they intend to push back forcefully or opt for a more measured approach.

Impact On Businesses And Policy

Market participants will also need to monitor whether Ontario follows through on its threats. If electricity exports are disrupted, businesses reliant on stable supply chains may need to adjust expectations. Ford’s call for cooperation suggests some space for negotiation, but his emphasis on maintaining a strong stance raises the possibility of unpredictable shifts. A closer reading of US policymakers’ responses will help determine the likelihood of actual policy changes rather than mere verbal escalation.

In this environment, any shift in tone from either government could trigger rapid adjustments. Participants should focus on official statements from Washington and Ontario, particularly those outlining concrete steps rather than rhetorical positioning. The next few weeks may define the direction of this dispute, shaping expectations for businesses and traders alike.

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Gold prices in the Philippines decreased on Wednesday, with the cost per gram dropping to 5,379.25 PHP from 5,391.28 PHP the previous day. The price per tola fell to 62,742.48 PHP, down from 62,882.80 PHP.

The gold prices in PHP are as follows: 1 gram at 5,379.25 PHP, 10 grams at 53,792.46 PHP, tola at 62,742.48 PHP, and Troy ounce at 167,313.40 PHP. These prices are subject to daily updates based on the market rates.

Gold As A Safe Haven Asset

Central banks significantly increased their gold reserves in 2022, purchasing 1,136 tonnes valued at around $70 billion, the highest annual total recorded. Gold tends to rise with a weaker US Dollar and is viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of market instability.

The movement in gold prices, as seen in the Philippines, aligns with broader market trends that influence the value of the metal globally. A slight decline in price per gram and per tola suggests market adjustments that could be linked to currency fluctuations, demand shifts, or broader economic conditions.

This drop is not occurring in isolation. Historically, when central banks make large purchases of gold, as they did in 2022 with their record-breaking 1,136-tonne acquisition, it underscores the metal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. If major financial institutions continue adding to their gold reserves, it reinforces confidence in its role as a store of value.

For traders tracking short-term price changes, the daily fluctuations in gold’s cost per gram or per Troy ounce indicate opportunities for both entry and exit positions in derivative contracts. Recently, gold has maintained its reputation as a safe-haven asset, particularly when the US dollar weakens. Whenever the dollar declines in strength, gold typically appreciates, making it attractive to those looking for stability amid currency volatility.

Economic Indicators And Gold Prices

The current adjustment in Philippine gold prices mirrors the broader impact of supply-and-demand forces across global markets. With prices subject to daily recalibrations based on market rates, traders must remain aware of key economic indicators that influence gold’s trajectory. Central bank movements, inflation figures, and currency valuations continue to shape price expectations in the weeks ahead.

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Japan’s final February Services PMI increased to 53.7, up from 53.0. The Composite PMI also rose to 52.0, compared to the previous figure of 51.1.

Earlier this month, the final Manufacturing PMI for Japan was reported at 49.0, an improvement from 47.7.

Stronger Expansion In Services

Japan’s latest Services PMI reading of 53.7 reflects stronger expansion in the sector compared to the prior figure of 53.0. The increase suggests a healthier pace of growth, with businesses reporting better conditions. Similarly, the Composite PMI rising to 52.0 from 51.1 indicates that the broader economy is showing more resilience, as both manufacturing and services contribute to this upward shift.

The Manufacturing PMI, despite remaining below the critical 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction, showed an uptick from 47.7 to 49.0 earlier in the month. While this still points to a shrinking manufacturing sector, the slower rate of contraction suggests pressures may be easing.

For those watching these figures closely, the divergence between services and manufacturing highlights a split in economic momentum. Japan’s service sector appears to be driving overall growth, while manufacturing struggles to recover. This contrast may shape expectations for policy adjustments and currency movements in the weeks ahead.

Market Sentiment And Global Trends

Shifts like these often influence sentiment beyond domestic markets. If services continue expanding and manufacturing stabilises, broader economic confidence may strengthen. However, an uneven recovery could introduce complications, particularly if external factors such as trade conditions or currency dynamics add further strain.

Market participants should also consider how these figures fit within global trends. Japan’s latest data follows a pattern seen in other economies where services have remained more robust compared to manufacturing. If this continues, it could affect positioning in related markets, pushing some to reassess risk and exposure.

Looking ahead, further data releases and external developments may reinforce or challenge these trends. A closer watch on how businesses respond in both sectors will be important, especially if input costs or demand conditions shift unexpectedly.

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During the Asian trading session, USD/JPY reached approximately 149.75, marking a 0.50% increase. Traders are awaiting a speech from US President Donald Trump for further market direction.

The US Dollar Index stands at around 105.75, up 0.18%, while concerns regarding economic growth and tariffs could limit its gains. Comments from the Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor indicate the central bank’s inclination to continue raising interest rates if forecasts are met.

Boj Rate Hike Expectations

The BoJ’s possible rate hikes are anticipated, spurred by improving economic conditions and rising wages. The Japanese Yen’s value is influenced by Japanese economic performance, central bank policy, bond yield differentials, and risk sentiment.

This movement in the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects ongoing expectations around monetary policy shifts. With the pair nearing 149.75, attention now turns to the broader implications for global markets. Many are watching the upcoming remarks from the US President, as these could have direct consequences for trade policies and, in turn, currency positioning.

The US Dollar Index, at around 105.75, shows moderate strength. However, concerns regarding economic growth and trade tariffs may prevent it from gaining much more ground in the short term. Market participants will need to assess whether upcoming economic releases support further dollar appreciation or if headwinds will arise.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan’s stance appears to be shifting slightly. Comments from Deputy Governor Uchida suggest that, should forecasts hold, further rate hikes may not be out of the question. With improving economic conditions and rising wages, the likelihood of gradual policy tightening is growing. The implications for sovereign bond yields and capital flows are worth paying attention to, as they could offset some of the typical weakness associated with an ultra-loose Japanese monetary environment.

Japanese Yen Market Factors

The Japanese Yen remains subject to multiple factors: economic performance, central bank policy shifts, bond yield disparities, and overall risk appetite. If domestic wage and inflation trends continue on their upward path, rate policy may have to adjust accordingly. That said, sudden shifts in global risk sentiment could easily change the pace of market moves, particularly in yen crosses.

For those managing exposure, the coming weeks will likely provide numerous opportunities, but also risks. Signals from policymakers, both in Tokyo and Washington, will shape traders’ perspectives on yield differentials, rate paths, and broader macroeconomic trends. Keeping a close eye on policy discussions and economic momentum will help determine whether the yen remains under pressure or if market adjustments begin to favour a different stance.

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The ANZ World Commodity Price Index for February 2025 rose by 3.0% compared to January’s increase of 1.8%.

This index monitors the prices of 17 key commodity exports from New Zealand, which encompass dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood.

Strongest Monthly Gain In Six Months

A 3.0% rise in February, following January’s 1.8% increase, marks the strongest monthly gain in over six months. This suggests mounting demand or supply adjustments across globally traded goods from New Zealand. Higher prices can indicate stronger international purchasing activity, currency shifts, or production constraints in other regions.

Within the commodity mix, dairy remains a dominant influence. If global buyers are paying more for milk powder or butter, this lifts the entire index. Meat prices also play a sizeable role. Any shifts in demand from key markets like China or the United States often reveal trends in consumer preferences and economic conditions.

Forestry exports add another layer. These raw materials respond to housing and infrastructure trends overseas, making them a useful measure of construction activity. Seafood and wool bring further dimensions, though their market influence is narrower.

A rise of this scale warrants attention for those tracking near-term pricing movements. The back-to-back gains suggest momentum, meaning that short-term contracts, futures markets, and hedging strategies must account for additional strength in export receipts. Exchange rate moves could amplify—or dampen—these adjustments.

Monitoring Global Trade Flows

Watching global trade flows, central bank policy shifts, and rival producers’ supply levels will be necessary. If price increases align with tightening supply chains or stronger foreign orders, upwards pressure could persist. However, should demand soften or competing markets ramp up production, price shifts might reverse quickly.

Trade data over the coming weeks will offer further clarity. Currency valuations will be another piece of the equation—any changes in the New Zealand dollar could either support or dampen returns. As always, price cycles in large commodity groups rarely turn on a single factor, so keeping a broad view will be essential.

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US President Donald Trump addressed a joint session of Congress, emphasising a national comeback and calling for increased domestic oil drilling. He proposed federal spending cuts, a balanced budget, and lower mortgage rates, along with permanent income tax reductions.

Trump announced tariffs on products not made in the US and mentioned ongoing discussions with automobile manufacturers. He brought up the need for stringent border security and reiterated ambitions for Greenland.

Following these comments, the US Dollar Index rose by 0.21% to 105.77. The USD experienced varied performance against major currencies, notably strengthening against the Japanese Yen.

Economic Policy Announcements

Trump’s speech highlighted his administration’s ambitions for economic activity within the country. Announcing plans for federal spending cuts alongside tax reductions suggests an attempt to stimulate growth while addressing government debt at the same time. The proposal for lower mortgage rates signals an effort to ease financial burdens on households, which could, in turn, support consumer spending.

His call for tariffs on foreign-made goods reinforces the drive towards domestic production. Traders should take note of how such measures may influence inflationary pressures over the coming months. Increased costs on imports could push consumer prices upwards, influencing expectations around Federal Reserve policy. If inflation responds sharply to these tariffs, markets may begin to price in shifts in interest rates sooner than anticipated.

His comments on border security and Greenland added to the nationalistic tone of the address. While neither has an immediate effect on financial markets, the broader policy direction could shape long-term investment sentiment.

Meanwhile, the currency market reaction has already begun. The US Dollar Index rising by 0.21% to 105.77 tells us that investors have responded with optimism. Strengthening against the Japanese Yen indicates a movement towards risk-on sentiment, particularly as the Yen tends to gain strength in uncertain conditions. Traders holding exposure to USD-paired derivatives should account for shifts in interest rate expectations and capital flows, adjusting their positions accordingly.

Federal Reserve And Market Reactions

Market participants will now be watching for any response from the Federal Reserve. Should tariffs and policy changes stoke inflation, the central bank might step in with rate adjustments. How the Fed interprets these developments will shape the direction of currency markets, bond yields, and equity performance.

From here, close attention should be paid to trade negotiations, inflation figures, and any follow-up from policymakers. Those in the derivatives space may look to adjust their strategies based on upcoming inflation releases and interest rate projections. Policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and domestic stimulus, may lead to fresh volatility.

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Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, provided insights during a conversation with Fox. The discussion will focus on foreign policy, including efforts to end the war in Ukraine and plans to secure the release of hostages in Gaza.

Additionally, funding will be requested from Congress for mass deportations of undocumented migrants. There seems to be a discrepancy, as Trump desires a swift trade deal, while European leaders prefer a more measured approach.

Diplomatic And Domestic Challenges

Leavitt’s remarks highlight a reality that cannot be ignored. The administration is pushing for diplomatic resolutions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East while also making domestic security a priority. This mixture of international and internal matters introduces complexities that will undoubtedly shape global markets in the short term.

Washington’s approach to Ukraine carries financial consequences beyond military aid. Any movement towards peace means shifts in defence spending and potential reallocations of resources. Holders of contracts linked to this sector may react sharply to new developments. If negotiations remain stalled, industries depending on sustained military support could retain their current momentum. If there is a breakthrough, rapid adjustments should be expected.

The situation in Gaza presents another variable. The success or failure of talks to free captives will be closely monitored. Diplomatic breakthroughs can alter investment flows in energy and commodities. Any decision that creates confidence in stability will be reflected in price movements. On the other hand, should complications arise, the potential for sudden changes remains high.

This administration’s request for deportation funding introduces uncertainty into labour-dependent industries. Policies affecting the workforce always have widespread economic impact. Any decision on resources tied to immigration enforcement may influence supply chains, particularly in sectors that rely on lower-cost labour. If capital markets perceive risks to labour availability, volatility could follow in industries sensitive to workforce disruptions.

Uncertainty In Trade Negotiations

Trade matters remain unresolved. While Washington seems eager to finalise agreements, European leaders are signalling hesitation. This difference in approach presents opportunities and risks. If negotiations accelerate, markets linked to transatlantic commerce may move in anticipation. However, should European officials continue their deliberate stance, the prospect of prolonged discussions may introduce further hesitation among investors.

Taken together, these developments demand close attention. The potential for shifts remains high, and careful positioning may be necessary. Decisions made in the coming weeks will not occur in isolation. Policy actions, diplomatic engagements, and economic responses are interconnected. Reactions will not unfold evenly across all markets, making it essential to track each event with precision.

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NZD/USD remains at approximately 0.5650, influenced by a positive China Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) which rose unexpectedly to 51.4, surpassing the anticipated 50.8. The resignation of RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr is noted, with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby taking over temporarily.

The US Dollar faces downward pressure amid concerns over economic growth and new tariffs. President Trump’s tariffs, which became effective recently, have led to speculation regarding potential adjustments to trade policies.

Us Dollar Index Trends

The US Dollar Index is around 105.70, reflecting market sentiments about tariff impacts. The Caixin Services PMI is a key indicator of China’s services sector, providing insights into economic trends.

The exchange rate clings near 0.5650, buoyed by unexpectedly strong Chinese data. A Services PMI reading of 51.4, well above estimates, hints at stable demand in a sector often seen as a barometer for overall economic health. This should, at least in part, be supportive for sentiment, though broader macroeconomic concerns still cast a shadow.

Meanwhile, leadership changes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand add another layer of uncertainty. With Orr stepping down and Hawkesby filling in, markets must now recalibrate their expectations around policy continuity. Any deviation from the central bank’s prior stance could introduce volatility.

On the other side, weakness in the US Dollar comes as traders assess Washington’s latest policy moves. Freshly imposed tariffs by the Trump administration add another wrinkle to the market outlook. The reaction so far reflects apprehension over how these measures could weigh on consumption and business activity.

China Services Pmi Impact

The US Dollar Index, sitting near 105.70, captures this hesitation. With trade concerns now affecting sentiment, the prospect of policy alterations looms. Whether adjustments materialise will depend on economic data and political positioning in the coming weeks.

China’s Caixin Services PMI remains a vital gauge, shedding light on demand conditions within the world’s second-largest economy. Since services consumption plays a large role in economic momentum, shifts in this indicator will shape future expectations. Traders should remain alert, as further surprises could upend assumptions underpinning current trends.

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