The USDCAD traded within an 84-pip range last week, exhibiting volatile price movements. The pair initially struggled against the 200-hour moving average at 1.4210 after surpassing the 100-hour moving average at 1.4200, indicating indecision.

Today, USDCAD opened above the moving averages, briefly dipped below during the Asian session, and has since rebounded. Momentum remains weak, with traders looking for a definitive movement in either direction.

Key short-term support lies at 1.4200, the 100-hour moving average. A break above last week’s highs at 1.4235–1.4246 would enhance bullish momentum, while a drop below 1.4200 could direct attention towards lower support levels, including last week’s low at 1.4165.

Support levels include 1.4200, 1.4165, 1.4150, and the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4133. Resistance levels are positioned at 1.4235–1.4246 and 1.4260–1.4269, marking critical breakout points.

Given the way USDCAD moved last week, there is an apparent struggle between buyers and sellers. The price action shows hesitation, particularly around key moving averages. While the pair managed to push higher, it has not sustained bullish momentum for long, highlighting uncertainty.

Today’s early weakness during the Asian session was short-lived, but momentum remains underwhelming. The reluctance to drive decisively in one direction suggests that traders are waiting for a larger catalyst. The 100-hour moving average at 1.4200 is now an immediate support level. If the price slips below this mark with conviction, further declines become more probable. Levels at 1.4165 and 1.4150 line up as potential retracement points, and a deeper move might bring the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4133 into play.

On the upside, passing last week’s highs in the 1.4235–1.4246 range could reinforce a push higher. Clearing this zone with continued buying pressure may open the door to the next resistance area, around 1.4260–1.4269. This remains an area to watch, as previous reactions suggest it could attract selling interest again.

In the current environment, it is essential to acknowledge that price action is not fully committing either way. While the support and resistance levels provide a framework, waiting for confirmation before reacting is safer than making assumptions. Watching for a stronger directional move will offer better opportunities, rather than chasing minor fluctuations.

For those focused on shorter moves, maintaining awareness of the moving averages and reaction levels is wise. Hesitation around key technical markers often means that sudden bursts of momentum can appear when one side loses control. Until then, patience could be the best approach as price remains stuck in a tight range.

The US Dollar (USD) is projected to trade within a range of 7.2350 to 7.2650 against the Chinese Yuan (CNH). For the USD to continue its decline, it needs to break and remain beneath the 7.2300 mark.

In the short term, recent trading shows the USD fluctuated between 7.2339 and 7.2596, closing at 7.2540. A sustained range around 7.2350 to 7.2650 is anticipated.

Longer-term perspectives maintain that while a decline is expected, the USD must drop below 7.2300. Should it breach 7.2800, this would suggest a reversal in the current trend.

At present, the dollar is holding firm within a narrow range against the yuan, showing no clear breakout in either direction. For traders watching price movements closely, the key level to monitor remains 7.2300. If the dollar slips below this, it opens the door for further losses. However, if it remains above, the current pattern of stability continues.

In the past few sessions, the dollar found support around 7.2339 while struggling to move beyond 7.2596. The closing price at 7.2540 signals that, for now, resistance is strong enough to hold off further gains. Unless a definitive push beyond 7.2650 happens, we should anticipate more sideways movement.

In the longer term, expectations lean towards a weaker dollar, but caution is warranted. A slip below 7.2300 would serve as confirmation that this outlook is playing out. On the other hand, if the dollar climbs past 7.2800, those anticipating further declines would need to reassess. Such a move would indicate that downward pressure is weakening, potentially shifting momentum in the other direction.

For those involved in derivatives, these levels provide essential guidance. Breakouts from the established range could alter positioning, and remaining aware of these thresholds allows for more informed trade decisions. Being reactive to movements beyond these points, rather than preempting them, reduces risk in an unpredictable environment.

February is currently quiet, contrasting with recent volatility. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey at 10 am ET is the only noteworthy economic indicator scheduled for today.

S&P 500 futures have increased by 31 points, or 0.5%, following last Friday’s declines. A weekend note from TD Cowen mentioned a slowdown in AI spending, yet the market appears unaffected.

Market sentiment will be a focus this week, particularly with Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday and Vistra’s on Thursday.

This calm start to February stands in stark contrast to the turbulence seen at the end of January. With little economic data to digest, attention is centred on broader trends influencing risk appetite. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is an isolated data point today, though its impact is generally confined to regional economic conditions rather than driving widespread sentiment shifts.

Futures on the S&P 500 have rebounded after last week’s pullback, suggesting that traders are willing to take on risk ahead of upcoming earnings reports. The mention of weaker AI spending from TD Cowen may have raised concerns, but equity markets have not reacted negatively. This suggests that either expectations were already leaning in that direction or that strong earnings elsewhere are providing a counterbalance.

This week, Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday will act as a test of the AI-driven enthusiasm that has fuelled the recent rally. Jensen’s company has been at the centre of equity strength, and any deviation from expected revenue or forward guidance could have wide-reaching effects. A miss could prompt sharp repositioning, particularly given the weight the stock holds in major indices. On Thursday, Jim’s company will release earnings as well, providing insights into another important sector.

Outside of corporate results, traders should pay attention to bond yields and shifts in interest rate expectations. While equity markets have taken last week’s weakness in stride, sudden changes in rate forecasts could alter positioning quickly. Federal Reserve officials will also be speaking throughout the week, and any deviation from the current market view on rate cuts will need to be accounted for in positioning.

Volatility in currencies and commodities may also provide clues on which sectors could see the most movement in the near term. A stable dollar would support the view that risk sentiment is intact, while any sharp fluctuations would likely reveal underlying nervousness. With few scheduled economic reports in the immediate sessions, sentiment is more likely to be influenced by positioning and expectations rather than abrupt fundamental shifts.

EUR/GBP remains stable around the 0.8300 level, with the UK macro calendar showing no major events for the upcoming week.

In February, the UK preliminary PMIs displayed weakness, with the composite at 50.5, services at 51.1, and manufacturing at 46.4. January experienced the steepest drop in private sector wage growth since 2020 due to weak demand.

Elevated price pressures are driven by high wage growth alongside an anticipated rise in national insurance contributions for employers. The UK economy shows signs of stagnation, and attention is drawn to upcoming communications from Bank of England speakers.

The quiet UK macro calendar means that the next moves in EUR/GBP will likely depend on external factors or unexpected shifts in sentiment. With no immediate economic data releases to direct momentum, the pair may continue to hover around the 0.8300 mark unless fresh catalysts emerge.

The UK’s latest preliminary PMIs painted a picture of weakening business activity. The composite index barely holds above contraction territory at 50.5. While services managed to stay in expansion at 51.1, manufacturing remains in trouble, slipping further to 46.4. These figures suggest that demand is struggling to gain traction, keeping economic activity subdued.

Pay growth has been weakening, particularly in the private sector, where January saw the sharpest year-on-year decline since 2020. This points to businesses feeling the strain and holding back on wages in response to weaker demand. Yet, inflationary pressures remain, with elevated wages and an upcoming increase in employer national insurance contributions expected to keep costs high.

The UK economy has little forward momentum. Growth appears fragile, and concerns linger around whether conditions could deteriorate further. All eyes now turn to the Bank of England, as policymakers will need to assess stagnant business activity, persistent inflationary risks, and weakening earnings.

For those navigating the derivative markets, attention should remain fixed on central bank remarks. Any shift in messaging from officials like Andrew or Huw could steer expectations on interest rates, influencing the next move for GBP-related assets. Without clear signs of recovery, markets will be sensitive to any adjustments in tone from the Bank’s speakers.

With limited UK-specific developments on the horizon, external factors—such as shifts in risk appetite or changes in eurozone data—could play a bigger role in driving short-term fluctuations. A cautious stance may be warranted, especially with market participants attempting to gauge whether the current stagnation turns into something more prolonged.

Germany’s SPD has acknowledged uncertainty regarding their future role in government discussions. The recent election result marked the SPD’s lowest voter support in a federal election.

The CDU/CSU alliance, led by Friedrich Merz, may hesitate to collaborate with the SPD due to potential public backlash. Currently, a coalition with the Greens seems more appealing to the CDU/CSU after the SPD’s disappointing performance.

This outcome has introduced fresh doubts about how the SPD will position itself in the coming months. Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken have avoided outright statements on whether they plan to engage in coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, though voices within the party appear divided. Some favour remaining in opposition to rebuild trust, while others see a potential agreement with the conservatives as a way to retain influence. The party’s stance over the next few weeks will set the tone for their engagement in policy negotiations.

Meanwhile, Friedrich faces increasing pressure to solidify his strategy. While early indications suggest a preference for working with the Greens, some within his party remain cautious. Previous tensions between the CDU/CSU and the Greens on fiscal policy and energy reforms could resurface. Any agreement would require careful concessions, something that has caused friction in earlier discussions. If these hurdles prove difficult, alternative arrangements might gain traction.

For Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, this shifting political reality presents both opportunities and risks. They hold a considerable bargaining position, but public perception of their role in recent government policies could limit their hand. With economic concerns mounting, their ability to advocate for environmental measures while reassuring businesses will be tested. Any miscalculation here risks weakening voter confidence.

We have already seen how uncertainty in Berlin can lead to volatility in certain sectors. The prospect of an unstable coalition—or a prolonged negotiation period—could influence bond markets and investor sentiment. As discussions unfold, close attention must be paid to statements from party leaders. Even subtle shifts in tone or wording could hint at changing dynamics.

Over the next few weeks, expectations will need to be adjusted based on emerging details. Policy priorities, leadership decisions, and internal disagreements will all shape the direction of negotiations. Those tracking these developments must assess both public declarations and behind-the-scenes maneuvering. Misreading either could lead to unexpected outcomes.

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to retest the 148.90 level against the Japanese Yen (JPY) before stabilising. A key support level at 148.63 is unlikely to be reached soon, according to analysts.

In the short term, despite a recent drop, USD conditions are seen as oversold, indicating a potential for further decline. If the USD surpasses the 151.05 resistance mark, it may signal a stabilisation after a period of weakness. Current resistance levels are at 149.75 and 150.10.

We anticipate the US Dollar making another attempt at the 148.90 mark against the Japanese Yen before settling into a steadier range. Analysts suggest the 148.63 support level is unlikely to come into play anytime soon, which provides traders with a reference point in assessing downside risks.

Although the Dollar has pulled back recently, technical indicators suggest it has moved into oversold territory. This typically implies that further declines may be limited in the near term, though it does not necessarily mean an immediate sharp reversal. If the Dollar breaks above 151.05, it would suggest that the recent period of weakness has run its course, providing traders with a clear indication of potential stabilisation.

From here, we are closely watching the 149.75 and 150.10 levels as potential hurdles. If the price struggles to hold above them, short-term momentum could favour further tests of support. However, should the Dollar successfully reclaim these levels with sustained buying pressure, it would strengthen the case for a move towards the 151.05 threshold.

In terms of positioning, traders should remain mindful of the broader trend while also considering short-term technical signals. Keeping a close eye on shifts in momentum will be important when managing risk in derivative markets. If price action begins to consolidate, it may create entry opportunities, but sharp movements cannot be ruled out, particularly if external factors such as economic releases or central bank commentary shift sentiment unexpectedly.

While the backdrop remains fluid, traders should assess whether price developments align with broader market conditions. If resistance levels continue to hold, there could be renewed selling interest, but if buyers step in convincingly, we may see another leg higher.

On Friday, the Nasdaq experienced a notable sell-off following disappointing US Flash Services PMI data and the Final UMich Consumer Sentiment survey, which revealed long-term inflation expectations reaching a 30-year high. This sell-off was largely triggered by fears that the Federal Reserve may struggle to cut rates promptly amid ongoing inflation concerns.

The Nasdaq failed to surpass the key resistance level of 22111, leading to a decline. Sellers are likely to continue targeting the 20990 support, while buyers hope for a recovery above resistance to reinstate bullish momentum.

The bearish trend intensified following a break of the upward trendline on the 4-hour chart. Buyers may find a more favourable risk-to-reward scenario around the 21430 support, while sellers could benefit from a breakdown towards the 20990 level.

In the short-term, a recent lower low at 21955 may pose resistance. If the price retraces to this level, sellers could enter, aiming for a decline towards the 21430 support, while buyers will seek a breakout to foster bullish movements.

Upcoming economic reports include the US Consumer Confidence report and US Jobless Claims figures, concluding with the US PCE data on Friday.

A disappointing services PMI release and a surge in long-term inflation expectations have heightened concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates soon. Markets responded swiftly. Tech-heavy stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, dragging Nasdaq lower after failing to break resistance at 22111. The sharp reaction suggests traders remain sensitive to any news that could delay policy easing. Without clearer signs of inflation subsiding, downside risks persist.

A key level now stands at 21430, where technical buyers may attempt to enter. Earlier, an upward trendline provided support, but once price broke beneath it, sellers strengthened their grip. Returning towards 21955 may invite further selling pressure. If resistance holds, targets around 21430 and 20990 remain valid. If, however, upward momentum builds, a recovery towards 22111 could be on the table.

Inflation expectations running at a 30-year high put central bankers in a difficult spot. Hopes for early rate cuts diminish when consumers anticipate persistent price increases. A rebound in consumer confidence or weaker labour market data might shift this outlook. These next data releases, including PCE inflation on Friday, could heavily influence sentiment and future movement.

It remains a volatile period. Economic reports coming up may dictate direction, offering both buyers and sellers opportunities. Whether inflation fears hold back rallies or confidence resumes, staying adaptable will be key.

Current DAX Futures price is 22,545. Key levels indicate a bullish outlook above 22,775 and a bearish stance below 22,684, with the analysis noting that the price is presently in bearish territory.

For potential entry points, levels around 22,560 are suggested, close to the value area high. Bullish profit targets include 22,865, 23,025, and 23,195, while bearish targets are set at 22,360, 22,252, 22,145, 22,072, 21,930, 21,735, and 21,520.

The analysis serves as a guide for traders, emphasising the need to adapt strategies based on market interactions with these key levels. Further updates will be available from tradeCompass.

The current positioning of the DAX Futures price suggests that the market remains below the indicated bullish threshold. This implies that unless a move above 22,775 occurs, any upward shift is likely to face resistance. Conversely, with the present value lingering beneath 22,684, the broader trajectory appears to favour further declines unless buyers regain control.

As for those looking for entry points, areas near 22,560 align with recent value high levels, meaning interest from both sides could emerge there. If buyers gain strength, the key upside objectives offer a structured path towards 22,865, followed by 23,025 and extending up to 23,195. Conversely, should the downward pressure continue, multiple downside targets remain in play, starting from 22,360 and stretching towards lower levels, including 21,520 as an extended goal.

Given these outlined thresholds, the priority remains on how price behaves when engaging with them. If certain levels hold firm as support or resistance, that would dictate whether adjustments are required. The plan should remain flexible, reacting to confirmed moves rather than assumptions.

We will monitor movements closely for any changes and provide further updates as conditions shift.

The USD/CAD pair has rebounded to approximately 1.4220, recovering from an earlier drop to around 1.4180. This recovery follows a resurgence of the US Dollar, despite weak US flash S&P Global PMI data for February, which indicated the first contraction in services activity in 25 months.

Concerns about potential 25% tariffs on Canada imposed by US President Trump are affecting the outlook for the Canadian Dollar. Following a delay in tariff implementation, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem noted that such tariffs could severely impact the economy.

The USD/CAD pair currently forms a Descending Triangle pattern. A dip below the February 14 low of 1.4151 could lead to further losses towards the December 9 low of 1.4094, while a rise above 1.4246 may push it towards 1.4300.

Several factors affect the CAD, including Bank of Canada interest rates, oil prices, economic health, inflation, and trade balance. Higher rates are typically beneficial for the CAD, while changes in oil prices directly impact this currency due to Canada’s reliance on oil exports.

Inflation data has a complex relationship with the CAD. Although inflation generally decreases currency value, increased inflation may prompt higher interest rates, enhancing CAD demand from foreign investors.

Economic data releases, including GDP and employment statistics, significantly influence the CAD’s value. Strong economic performance attracts investments, potentially leading to rate hikes and a stronger currency, whereas weak data could result in a decline of the CAD.

The USD/CAD pair has regained traction, moving back to around 1.4220 after dipping to 1.4180 earlier. This rebound comes even as the latest US flash S&P Global PMI figures for February painted a weak picture, marking the first contraction in services activity in over two years. Despite that, the US Dollar remains firm, suggesting that traders are pricing in other dynamics beyond just economic indicators.

Meanwhile, concerns surrounding trade policy continue to shape sentiment. With tariffs on Canada still in discussion, Tiff warns that if enforced, they could have severe repercussions for the economy. The delay in implementation has provided temporary relief, but uncertainty remains. As market participants weigh the risks, volatility in the Canadian Dollar is likely.

Looking at the technical setup, the Descending Triangle pattern is still in play. If price breaks below 1.4151—last seen on February 14—downside momentum may accelerate towards 1.4094, a level dating back to early December. Conversely, a move above 1.4246 might see the pair pushing towards 1.4300. Given the current price action, these levels serve as meaningful thresholds for potential moves in either direction.

The Canadian Dollar doesn’t move in isolation. The Bank of Canada’s rate decisions remain key, with higher rates historically lending support to the currency. Alongside that, oil prices carry outsized influence, as Canada’s resource-heavy economy ties closely to crude exports. Any spikes or declines in oil can have an immediate effect.

Inflation presents a more layered dynamic. Rising prices typically erode purchasing power, which could weaken the CAD. However, if inflation remains persistent, policymakers might be forced to raise rates in response, increasing demand as investors seek higher returns. Understanding this balance is key when assessing price movements.

Domestic economic performance plays a significant role as well. Strong GDP growth or robust labour market data can encourage inflows into Canadian assets, potentially lifting the currency. On the other hand, weaker figures may lead to speculation about rate cuts, weighing on the CAD. Given the upcoming data prints, traders should be prepared for fluctuations.

With key levels in focus and major themes unfolding in trade policy, central banking, and commodity prices, the next few weeks hold plenty of opportunity—but also risks—for those following this pair closely.

President Xi Jinping expressed China’s contentment with Russia and other involved parties making efforts towards resolving the Ukraine situation. Following a conversation with President Vladimir Putin, Xi noted that China-Russia relations will progress steadily regardless of shifts in the international landscape.

The two nations have committed to ongoing communication and coordination, with a focus on long-term development strategies and diplomatic policies. This statement reinforces the existing partnership between China and Russia, reflecting their aligned interests amid broader geopolitical dynamics.

This statement from Xi highlights Beijing’s satisfaction with Moscow’s diplomatic efforts in handling the Ukraine situation. It also underlines a commitment to maintaining strong ties, even as global conditions shift. Stability in relations between these two nations suggests that their cooperation will persist, shaping future economic and political strategies.

For those tracking global markets, this steady relationship between Beijing and Moscow signals continuity. The reaffirmation of long-term coordination implies that trade policies and agreements between the two will likely remain intact, providing clarity on future engagements. Any expectations of distancing due to geopolitical tensions appear unfounded, based on the latest remarks.

Putin’s call with Xi reinforces this stability. The ongoing dialogue suggests that both sides are keen to ensure that economic ties are not disrupted. Continued diplomatic alignment often translates into sustained trade flows, which may impact commodity prices, particularly in energy and raw materials. Industries dependent on these sectors might find reassurance in the consistency of this relationship.

From our perspective, the focus should be on how these statements influence economic expectations. Consistent ties between these two governments tend to reduce unpredictability in supply chains linked to their economies. The absence of divergence in policies suggests that broader market movements will reflect adjustments rather than abrupt shifts.

Looking ahead, attention must be given to any developments in the policies that Beijing and Moscow follow in response to external pressures. If their dialogue leads to deeper cooperation in trade or finance, this could shape near-term expectations across multiple sectors. Recognising these signals early allows for better positioning in response to future shifts.

Moreover, the reaffirmation of diplomatic coordination indicates that prior agreements and discussions remain on course. For industries reliant on steady imports or exports between these economies, this provides reassurance that no sudden disruptions should be anticipated. Stability in these relations often correlates with more predictable commodity flows, particularly in oil, gas, and metals.

It is worth noting that global responses to this partnership can still influence external market conditions. If other nations adjust their own policies in reaction, this could create indirect effects. Monitoring these reactions should be a priority when assessing the wider economic picture.

While long-term strategies remain a central theme in this discussion, short-term developments should not be ignored. Any upcoming discussions between these two leaders could present new details that refine expectations. Keeping track of whether economic commitments evolve further will be necessary to maintain awareness of shifting conditions.