EUR/USD is experiencing difficulties, retreating after failing to surpass the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a third time, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum. Sellers are regaining control, indicating a potential change in the overall trend.

Technical indicators show decreasing momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining while still in positive territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat, suggesting weak directional strength.

Attention is on the potential convergence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs, which may lead to a bearish crossover. A break below the 20-day SMA at approximately 1.0450 could heighten downside risks.

What we are observing is a weakening bullish push, as shown by the repeated inability to break past the 100-day SMA. When a key resistance level rejects price action multiple times, it usually indicates that buying pressure is diminishing, giving sellers more control. With support levels now in focus, traders should be paying close attention to whether the 20-day SMA holds or gives way.

Momentum indicators are not showing much strength in either direction. The RSI is moving lower, but it remains above the midpoint, meaning bearish pressure is increasing, though not overwhelmingly so. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram staying flat reflects a lack of enthusiasm from both bulls and bears. This often happens when markets struggle to find direction after an extended period of uncertainty.

One upcoming technical event that might influence decision-making is the possible crossover between the 100-day and 20-day SMAs. If the shorter-term moving average moves beneath the longer-term one, we would normally expect further downside pressure to gain traction. That is why the 1.0450 level carries weight; falling below it could see momentum shift firmly to the downside, potentially setting up a deeper pullback.

In the near term, traders should be attentive to whether selling pressure continues building or if buyers can regain control. If support holds, we might see another attempt to break higher, but for now, the evidence leans in favour of further losses. The market is hesitating, which often precedes a larger move, meaning quick adjustments to strategy might be required depending on how price developments unfold.

In January, Russia’s industrial output was reported at 2.2%, falling short of the anticipated 4.2%. This statistic suggests a weaker performance in the sector than forecasted.

Separate reports indicate that AUD/USD is consolidating around the 0.6300 mark, impacted by a softer Australian CPI and concerns over tariff plans. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains near its year-to-date low, struggling under firm expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.

Gold prices hold steady above $2,900 as trade tensions and economic uncertainties drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, a decline in meme tokens has been observed amid shifts in market focus.

European February inflation is expected to decrease sharply in France, while stability prevails in the wider Eurozone, despite ongoing price increases in services.

A weaker-than-expected industrial output figure for Russia at 2.2%, rather than the forecasted 4.2%, signals that production has not expanded as quickly as analysts had predicted. This could suggest subdued domestic demand or potential supply-side challenges. For those involved in the derivatives market, a shortfall of this nature often factors into currency movements and commodity pricing, particularly when gauging broader economic strength.

Looking elsewhere, the Australian dollar is currently moving sideways near 0.6300 against the US dollar, with traders keeping a close eye on inflation data and possible tariff-related adjustments. A softer CPI reading has tempered expectations for tighter monetary policy, leaving the currency without a clear directional push. Given this, those tracking price movements in the pair should remain attentive to any shifts in commodity prices, as Australia’s export-driven economy ties directly to those figures.

Meanwhile, the yen is lingering near its lowest levels so far this year as markets price in the likelihood of future interest rate hikes from Japan’s central bank. This has kept Japanese assets in focus, especially with traders anticipating that policy adjustments could alter market positioning. Any further reinforcement of these expectations could continue to weigh on the currency in the coming sessions.

Gold remains firmly above $2,900, buoyed by ongoing economic uncertainty and trade-related anxieties, which have reinforced its status as a preferred store of value. With volatility in equities and global trade risks still in play, its strength reflects prevailing investor caution. Any developments that heighten economic worries could provide further support, while a move in the opposite direction might suppress demand.

The downturn in meme-based tokens highlights shifting interests across digital markets. These assets, often driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals, have fallen out of favour lately, likely as liquidity seeks more sustainable opportunities. For traders navigating this space, understanding where capital is rotating remains key.

On the inflation front, a sharp decline is expected in France’s February reading, contrasting with a more stable picture across the broader Eurozone. Although services inflation remains elevated, overall price pressures are not seeing drastic moves. This relative steadiness suggests that while cost increases persist in specific areas, there is no immediate sign of runaway inflation across the region. Any deviation from these forecasts could prompt adjustments in interest rate expectations, particularly within European financial markets.

Nvidia reported a fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 89 cents, surpassing the expected 84 cents. Revenue for the quarter reached $39.33 billion, exceeding estimates of $38.25 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 73.5%, matching forecasts.

Data centre revenue totalled $35.6 billion, above the expected $34.09 billion. The company anticipates first-quarter revenue of approximately $43 billion, with an adjusted gross margin projected between 70.5% and 71.5%.

Gaming revenue was recorded at $2.5 billion, falling short of the estimated $3.02 billion. The networking segment generated $3.02 billion, less than the forecast of $3.51 billion.

That earnings beat was not a minor one. Profits outpaced analyst forecasts, and revenue followed suit. The adjusted gross margin did not disappoint—it aligned exactly with predictions. These figures paint a clear picture of where the company stands after the latest quarter. But the details matter more than just the overall numbers.

The data centre division, the core engine of the company’s expansion, delivered better-than-expected results. That division alone produced $35.6 billion, comfortably above the market’s anticipated $34.09 billion. It confirms what many already understood—growth in artificial intelligence remains relentless. The demand is not just steady, it is increasing at a rapid pace.

Looking ahead, leadership expects around $43 billion in revenue next quarter. If that materialises, it marks another leap forward. There is confidence in maintaining strong profitability as well, with gross margins projected between 70.5% and 71.5%. These forecasts are not built on optimism alone; they reflect sustained demand from clients who continue to invest in computing power at scale.

However, not every segment performed as well. Gaming revenue disappointed, landing at $2.5 billion when $3.02 billion was expected. The networking segment failed to meet forecasts, bringing in $3.02 billion rather than the projected $3.51 billion. Those areas did not see the same levels of demand growth, and that matters, even if they are not the main drivers anymore.

From this report, two things become clear. Some parts of the business remain strong, while others did not reach expectations. That contrast should not be ignored. In the coming weeks, markets will react in a way that rewards what is working and punishes what is not. It will not be a simple case of rising or falling in one direction. Some areas are thriving, some are lagging, and that division within the business should shape thinking going forward.

The US Dollar began a slight recovery on Wednesday, although the Dollar Index (DXY) remains close to its yearly lows around 106.50. This comes as traders react to upcoming tariffs from President Trump and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Recent data showed New Home Sales fell to 0.657 million units in January, below the anticipated 0.68 million. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 66.2% chance of an interest rate cut by June, with US 10-year yields down to approximately 4.31%.

Technically, if the DXY fails to reclaim the 106.52 level, it may decline towards 105.89 or 105.33. Conversely, a recovery above 106.52 could target 106.71 and 107.35 as key resistance levels.

What we are seeing with the US dollar is a modest attempt to recover, but the Dollar Index remains pinned near its lowest levels this year. The recent dip in new home sales suggests that economic momentum might not be as strong as some had hoped. With the market’s eyes on potential Federal Reserve rate adjustments, bets on a cut as early as June continue to build. The US 10-year yield slipping to around 4.31% only adds to this sentiment.

Looking at the numbers, if the index cannot hold above 106.52, declines toward 105.89 and possibly even 105.33 could follow. On the flip side, if it manages to push beyond that threshold, resistance levels at 106.71 and then 107.35 might come into play. Markets will no doubt respond to shifts in interest rate expectations, but they must also take account of trade decisions coming from the White House.

This week’s trading activity will likely reflect these competing forces. If Jerome maintains a steady tone and does not signal immediate cuts, the dollar may find some footing. However, if the probability of a rate reduction continues to climb, longer-term strength could remain under pressure. On the tariff front, Donald’s latest policies may further shake confidence in the greenback, depending on how markets interpret the broader economic impact.

For derivative traders, these levels become particularly important. If they intend to position themselves for further downside movement in the index, watching whether support around 105.89 holds could be key. Should the index breach that level, then 105.33 might be next in sight. However, those banking on a rebound will likely be looking at whether 106.52 can be reclaimed before making any strong moves.

In the coming weeks, it becomes a question of how swiftly expectations of rate cuts shift. Should the likelihood of a June cut increase, the downward pressure on the dollar could intensify. If, however, the data suggests a more resilient economy, some traders may reconsider just how aggressively they price in those moves. The upcoming statements from the Federal Reserve and further US economic data will be worth monitoring carefully.

The White House intends to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, regardless of President Trump’s earlier statement indicating a start date in April.

The USDCAD exchange rate experienced a slight increase, reaching 1.4335, after peaking at 1.4366 for the day. The currency pair has surpassed important resistance levels between 1.4268 and 1.42789.

That means Washington is moving faster than expected. The 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico will take effect sooner, even though Donald previously mentioned a later timeline. Markets might not have fully adjusted yet.

The rise in USDCAD suggests traders were already positioning for this. Although the pair briefly touched 1.4366, it settled a little lower. That does not mean upward movement is over. It already moved past resistance in the 1.4268–1.4278 range, which could now act as support if the rate pulls back.

We need to watch how Ottawa and Mexico City react. Responses from officials could drive further market shifts. If either country announces countermeasures, traders may adjust quickly. That could mean sharper moves in USDCAD, possibly testing new highs.

At the same time, broader sentiment around the dollar matters. If investors pile into safe-haven assets, that could push the currency even higher, adding to the momentum. On the other hand, any attempt to cool trade tensions might limit further gains, at least temporarily.

Monitoring price action in the coming days will be important. If USDCAD holds above the prior resistance zone, that could reinforce confidence in an extended move. However, a drop below it might suggest a short-term pullback before another attempt higher.

The Fear and Greed Index from CNN Business has dropped to 22, mirroring December’s lows, indicating extreme fear in US stock markets. Historically, this level can signal a buying opportunity, but recent trends suggest caution due to potential market volatility.

The S&P 500 fell below 6000 at the start of the week, failing to push past its 50-day moving average. A slip below 5900 could signal a larger sell-off across equity markets, with further risk if it drops below the 200-day moving average at 5750.

In addition, the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones have formed double tops, signalling possible trend reversals. Despite this, a typical response would be a rebound towards the upper boundary above 6600, aided by the VIX remaining below 20, which generally indicates a stable market environment.

The drop in sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, suggests that investors are becoming wary. Historically, such low readings have often been followed by recoveries, but recent market behaviour demands a more measured approach. When uncertainty rises, it’s easy to look for past patterns, but they don’t always repeat in the same way.

A key concern is that the S&P 500 is struggling to find support. Having dipped under 6000, its inability to reclaim the 50-day moving average suggests that upward momentum is fading. If 5900 fails to hold, selling pressure might intensify, especially as traders watch the 200-day moving average around 5750. A break below that level would indicate a much broader shift in sentiment, forcing both long-term investors and short-term traders to rethink their positions.

At the same time, we must acknowledge the patterns emerging in other indices. The double tops seen in both the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones signal that they are testing key resistance points. Such formations often suggest the end of an upward phase, though markets do not always react immediately. A brief rally towards resistance near 6600 is still very much in play, especially given that the VIX remains subdued. When volatility stays low, traders tend to assume that corrections will be limited rather than prolonged.

Over the coming weeks, much depends on whether these levels are respected or broken decisively. If buyers step in near current support zones, momentum traders may look for another push higher. Conversely, a failure to hold could bring more defensive positioning, with derivatives traders adjusting their exposure accordingly. The next moves will not be determined by technical factors alone, but they provide a strong foundation for understanding what could unfold.

The AUDUSD has fallen for the third time in four days, with its peak near the 100-day moving average at 0.6407. Today’s trading has been volatile, with support found between 0.6287 and 0.6301, but sellers regained control after a temporary rebound.

During this bounce, the pair reached resistance between 0.6327 and 0.6336, but buying momentum diminished, leading to a decline. Currently, AUDUSD sits just below the 0.6300 level, indicating persistent bearish pressure.

A move below 0.6285, which marks a swing area and the 38.2% retracement level, may result in further downward movement. Conversely, if the 0.6285 level holds, it could prompt a recovery, suggesting the pullback may simply be a standard correction.

The recent movement reflects a market that continues to respond sharply to technical barriers, showing a reluctance to establish firm upward momentum. The earlier test of resistance lacked follow-through from buyers, reinforcing the prevailing downside bias. Selling interest remains dominant, with each attempt to recover meeting fresh offers, keeping upward movements limited.

With the pair hovering just beneath 0.6300, every slight rebound has met resistance before gaining much traction. The rejection from the 0.6330 region earlier in the session suggests sellers are still active at those levels. Without a shift in sentiment or a break above recent highs, downward pressure is likely to persist, keeping the focus on lower support zones.

The 0.6285 mark remains a key threshold. A decisive move below this area could open the door to a more pronounced slide as traders who had been banking on stability in this range may begin to capitulate. This is not just a random number on the chart—it aligns with previous swing levels and a Fibonacci retracement point, which many will be watching closely. If the slide continues, eyes will naturally turn to the next areas of potential buying interest, likely near 0.6250.

For those on the other side of the trade, 0.6285 serves as a line in the sand. As long as selling momentum fails to sustain a break beneath it, rebounds remain an option. This would suggest that what we are seeing now is a natural price adjustment rather than the start of an extended downtrend. A swift reclaiming of 0.6300 or beyond could unsettle recent bearish positioning, forcing an adjustment from those who have been pressing for further weakness.

Looking beyond immediate levels, market participants will need to assess how sentiment develops in response to external economic signals. The sensitivity to technical metrics remains high, but confidence in sustained directional movement remains elusive. Each failed attempt to rally or sell off decisively only feeds into the uncertainty, providing opportunities for those navigating short-term swings.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/MXN pair trading at 20.51. This decline is attributed to rising US Treasury yields and trade tensions after President Trump announced a review of copper tariffs.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed concerns about the economy’s fragility, forecasting a possible deficit of $-3.8 billion for Mexico’s Balance of Trade in January. Additionally, Mexico’s unemployment rate is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7%, while core inflation increased slightly from 3.61% to 3.63%.

Trade policies continue to drive market sentiment, as Mexico’s Secretary of Commerce calls for improved US-Mexico trade discussions. As negotiations unfold, volatility in the USD/MXN pair may increase.

Technical analysis suggests that if USD/MXN exceeds the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 20.45, it could further climb toward 20.50. Conversely, failure to maintain this level may see the pair retreat to the 100-day SMA at 20.24.

Economic indicators and geopolitical developments remain pivotal for the peso, influencing its value and attractiveness to foreign investors.

The peso’s recent decline makes sense when considering the broader market forces at play. A stronger US dollar, fuelled by rising Treasury yields, pushes investors toward safer assets, weakening demand for emerging market currencies like the peso. The latest tariff review adds yet another layer of trade uncertainty, which markets never take lightly.

Scott’s cautious outlook on Mexico’s trade balance underlines underlying pressure on the peso. A projected deficit of $-3.8 billion suggests more imports than exports, which can weigh on the currency. An unemployment uptick from 2.4% to 2.7% does not seem huge on the surface, but even slight increases can shake investor confidence, especially when paired with stubborn core inflation. While the latest inflation data shows only a marginal rise from 3.61% to 3.63%, it hints that price pressures are not disappearing, which limits the central bank’s ability to cut rates.

Trade discussions remain highly relevant. As Mexico’s Secretary of Commerce pushes for better terms with the US, the peso’s direction will largely depend on how talks progress. Positive developments could help stabilise the currency, while delays or hostile rhetoric might fuel further volatility. With so many factors in motion, sharp price movements in USD/MXN should not come as a surprise.

On the technical front, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.45 is an important level to watch. If the pair manages to stay above this threshold, a move toward 20.50 becomes more plausible. However, should it struggle to hold, a retreat toward the 100-day SMA at 20.24 looks likely. These technical markers provide traders with reference points, guiding short-term expectations.

For those following the peso’s trajectory, both economic indicators and trade policies cannot be ignored. With external and internal pressures shaping sentiment, a cautious yet responsive approach will likely serve traders best.

Deutsche Bank has changed its stance on the euro from bearish to neutral, noting a decline from 1.09 to 1.0480 over the past year. This adjustment reflects shifts in political dynamics affecting both sides of the trade.

The three German centrist parties are expected to support a large defence fund, potentially increasing German fiscal capacity. This development is seen as a move towards stability in Ukraine and aligns with a more conservative US fiscal policy, which has led to lower Treasury yields.

The bank perceives risks as evenly balanced for the coming months, with potential downside from trade policies and possible rate changes by the European Central Bank. Conversely, increased German fiscal activity and a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis could present upside potential.

Future shifts in this view depend on developments in defence spending, as the complexity of altering fiscal systems may slow progress. Currently, Deutsche Bank is not anticipating a general weakening of the US dollar but remains attentive to possible indications of further easing from the Federal Reserve.

Deutsche Bank’s reassessment of the euro, moving from a bearish to a neutral stance, is a direct reaction to the changing fiscal and political environment. The drop from 1.09 to 1.0480 over the past year has been influenced not just by market forces but by broader structural shifts on both sides of the trade.

The backing of a substantial defence fund by Germany’s leading centrist parties could change how fiscal policy is managed. Greater flexibility in government spending may create a foundation for stronger economic support, particularly as it relates to stability in Ukraine. At the same time, a more restrained fiscal approach in the US has resulted in lower Treasury yields. These two forces together help shape expectations for the euro’s future direction.

For now, Deutsche Bank sees the risks to the euro as evenly divided. Trade policies continue to pose potential threats, particularly if protectionist measures gain traction. Meanwhile, decisions from European policymakers on interest rates could sway sentiment. On the other hand, an increase in German fiscal spending or a diplomatic breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could shift the outlook in the opposite direction. These are not distant concerns—they are factors that could affect volatility in weeks rather than years.

Key developments in defence spending should not be overlooked. While the proposed fiscal measures are gaining political backing, the time required to implement them could be considerable. There is inertia in government budgets, and changing the existing framework rarely happens without delays. Given this, momentum in German spending levels will be watched closely. If capital deployment accelerates, the impact on markets will likely be reflected in how expectations for the euro evolve.

For the US dollar, Deutsche Bank does not currently foresee broad-based declines. That said, markets will remain highly responsive to any indications of further policy easing from the Federal Reserve. Any shift in that direction would introduce another layer of uncertainty, reinforcing why adjustments in positioning should be undertaken with a clear awareness of incoming signals.

In January, new home sales in the United States recorded 0.657 million, falling short of the forecast of 0.68 million. This marks a decrease in momentum for the housing market.

The AUD/USD exchange rate faced a selling trend, with strong support around the 0.6300 level. Meanwhile, EUR/USD struggled to break above 1.0500 and closed below this threshold after recent attempts.

Gold prices rebounded, surpassing $2,900 per troy ounce, as the US Dollar lost momentum ahead of a notable speech by President Trump. In the cryptocurrency market, meme tokens declined amid concerns over tariff threats from Trump.

Inflation in France is expected to drop sharply due to a significant reduction in regulated electricity prices, while the Eurozone experiences mixed trends in pricing, particularly in the services sector.

The housing market in the United States appears to be losing steam, given that new home sales failed to meet expectations. With a reading of 0.657 million instead of the predicted 0.68 million, demand may be weaker than some had anticipated. Traders who factor in housing data when making their decisions should take note, as this shift could have broader economic effects, including on interest rate expectations.

In currency markets, the Australian Dollar encountered resistance, slipping towards the 0.6300 mark where strong support has been visible before. Recent momentum suggests that buyers see value at this level, creating a potential battleground between those who expect further declines and those willing to step in. Meanwhile, the Euro struggled to keep its footing above 1.0500 against the Dollar, failing to sustain any strength. That inability to push higher reflects hesitation in the market, possibly influenced by broader economic uncertainties or shifting expectations for interest rates in the US and Europe.

Gold showed a strong rebound, climbing above $2,900 per troy ounce. The weakening of the Dollar ahead of an anticipated speech by Donald suggests some investors are positioning for potential volatility. Precious metals often see increased demand when confidence in the Dollar wavers, and this latest move reinforces that dynamic.

In the cryptocurrency world, prices for meme tokens faltered, with traders appearing uneasy over Donald’s tariff-related rhetoric. In previous cycles, regulatory and trade policy announcements have triggered sell-offs in speculative corners of the market, and this seems to be another instance of sentiment shifting sharply. This suggests traders are becoming more reactive to political signals, especially where policy may carry inflationary or regulatory risks.

Shifting to inflation data in France, a marked decline is expected, primarily driven by lower regulated electricity costs. This stands in contrast to the broader Eurozone, where pricing trends are diverging. The services sector in particular remains worth watching, as inflationary pressures there do not appear as uniform as in energy markets. Any continued unevenness could complicate monetary policy decisions in the coming weeks.