US stocks are facing declines, with the Dow Jones turning negative after earlier gains, while the S&P 500 has fallen by 1.0%. The Nasdaq is experiencing the largest drop, down nearly 2%.

Currently, the Dow Jones is down by 88.74 points to 43,344.38, the S&P 500 has decreased by 58.7 points to 5,897.31, and the Nasdaq has lost 353.64 points, now at 18,721.60.

A key support level for the Nasdaq at 18,832.20 has been breached, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

Downside targets for the Nasdaq include 18,595.36 from November 15 and the 200-day moving average at 18,346.78. A drop below 18,595.36 could lead to further declines.

This downturn reflects a shift in sentiment, driven by factors that have placed pressure on equity markets. A break below a crucial level suggests that sellers are gaining control, and attention now turns to whether further support levels will hold.

The inability of the Nasdaq to maintain its footing above 18,832.20 has caught the market’s attention. When a market moves below a well-established level, it often signals a change in trader behaviour. Some may take this as confirmation that momentum is weakening, increasing the risk of additional selling.

For now, two levels stand out. The first is 18,595.36, established in mid-November. It previously provided a foundation for a rebound, and the question now is whether it can do so again. The second is the 200-day moving average at 18,346.78. This long-term trend marker frequently acts as a zone where larger market participants reassess their positions.

If the first level fails to hold, focus shifts to the broader trend. The 200-day moving average is not simply another number on a chart; traders watch it closely when determining longer-term positioning. Should prices fall below this mark, it would reinforce concerns that momentum has shifted further towards the downside.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 has also lost ground. A 1.0% decline erases prior gains, showing that selling pressure is not confined to one part of the market. This suggests caution across the board, not just in technology-driven names.

Meanwhile, the Dow has turned lower. Although its pullback has been less pronounced than the others, it reflects a broad downturn rather than isolated weakness in one sector. Movements in this index often mirror changes in confidence among companies with more stable earnings.

As we watch how the next levels hold up, sentiment will continue to drive short-term moves. Breaks of widely-followed support levels can act as triggers for additional selling, particularly if downside momentum builds. On the other hand, if buyers step in at these points, it would indicate that not everyone is willing to bet on further declines just yet.

For now, price action points to uncertainty. Each level broken adds weight to the idea that sellers remain in control, while any bounce at support invites a closer look at whether conditions are stabilising.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda remarked that uncertainty in US policy is affecting the operations of central banks. The BoJ plans to monitor data closely as possible tariffs on imports are on the horizon.

Many countries have expressed concerns regarding the unpredictable global economic outlook. The response of other nations to US tariff policies remains unclear, necessitating careful observation of developments that may impact the global economy and Japan specifically.

The final decisions about monetary policy will be based on the assessment of US policies’ effects on global markets and Japan’s economy. The BoJ is prepared to implement flexible market operations in response to unusual fluctuations in long-term interest rates.

Kazuo Ueda’s comments highlight the difficulties central banks are currently facing, particularly regarding how external policy decisions affect monetary stability worldwide. The uncertainty around US tariffs introduces additional risk, which means strategies must remain adaptable in the coming weeks. We should expect the BoJ to rely on incoming data, adjusting its policy accordingly rather than committing to a fixed approach too soon.

Japan is hardly alone in monitoring the unpredictable global economy. Concerns about trade restrictions are growing, and it is unclear how other major economies will adjust their policies in response. The unpredictability of these decisions adds complexity to any forward-looking strategy. For traders, this reinforces the need to track not just Japanese policy statements but reactions from global institutions as well.

While no immediate policy shift has been announced, the BoJ is leaving room for adjustments should market conditions worsen. There is an explicit readiness to step in if long-term interest rates behave erratically. This suggests that volatility in bond markets will be met with intervention if necessary, creating potential opportunities for those closely watching government bond yields.

Anyone engaged in derivatives should be paying close attention to both interest rate movements and trade-related announcements coming from the US. The connection between tariffs, inflation expectations, and government bond yields must not be ignored. If US policy shifts create stronger inflationary pressures, central banks may find themselves adjusting faster than previously anticipated.

For now, the BoJ’s message remains one of flexibility rather than certainty. However, should Japan’s economy show sensitivity to external shocks, measured intervention could quickly become a reality. Every statement from central banks and key economic policymakers should be scrutinised for shifts in tone or emphasis.

NASDAQ traders face challenges as the index remains below its 100-day moving average, previously breached this week. A bearish sentiment is evident as the market grapples with support and resistance levels.

Key technical levels include a resistance point at the 100-day moving average of 19,233.42. A break above this level may indicate a change in buyer momentum.

The support level at 18,832.20 has provided solid backing this week, encouraging dip buyers. The price action between these two significant levels suggests that a breakout, either above 19,233.42 or below 18,832.20, will largely influence the market’s next move. Traders should monitor these conditions closely.

Examining the market fluctuations over the past several sessions, it’s clear that traders are navigating a period of uncertainty. With the index unable to reclaim its 100-day moving average, sellers maintain the upper hand for now. A failed attempt to push beyond this figure earlier in the week only reinforced hesitation among buyers, leaving the broader direction unresolved.

The fact that 18,832.20 has held firm as a support level offers some optimism for those looking to build long positions. Every bounce from this mark has seen a flurry of buying interest, though conviction remains weak as bulls struggle to generate meaningful follow-through. On the other end of the spectrum, the 100-day moving average continues to act as a ceiling, capping advances and keeping market sentiment from shifting decisively in favour of buyers. Until one of these levels gives way, price action is likely to remain choppy, making short-term plays attractive for many.

There is little doubt that momentum traders are paying close attention to any move outside this defined range. A close above 19,233.42 wouldn’t just signal stronger buying pressure but would also put past resistance points into play once again. That kind of move could force short positions to cover, feeding into a sharper uptrend. In contrast, a drop below 18,832.20 may quickly invite another wave of selling, as stops placed beneath this mark get triggered.

Beyond these technical markers, sentiment could be swayed by macroeconomic developments or earnings data from key companies. Any external factor strong enough to push price action beyond its current bounds could set the tone going forward. Meanwhile, those focused on short-term trades might continue to find opportunities as long as the current range holds. It remains a market that demands patience, discipline, and a sharp eye on levels that have proven their importance repeatedly over the past week.

EUR/USD has declined sharply to around 1.0420 following US President Trump’s threats of imposing 25% tariffs on Eurozone imports. The strengthening US Dollar is attracting attention as market participants await upcoming economic data.

Recent statements from Trump confirm that tariffs on Canada and Mexico may take effect on March 4, with reciprocal tariffs on the Eurozone expected soon. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 107.00 amid these developments.

Amid tariff concerns, the European Commission has stated its intention to respond firmly against unfair trade barriers. Economic vulnerabilities in the Eurozone may emerge, impacted by weak demand and ongoing political uncertainty in Germany.

Recent statistics revealed that US Durable Goods Orders increased by 3.1% in January, outperforming estimates. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims reached 242,000, exceeding expectations of 221,000.

Traders are anticipating the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and further Eurozone inflation figures. The latter will influence the outlook for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.

Technically, EUR/USD struggles to maintain levels above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, with support around 1.0285 and resistance at the December high of 1.0630.

We are seeing the Euro take a hit, with the US Dollar pushing higher as Washington looks set to impose heavy tariffs on European imports. This has reinforced demand for the greenback, leaving traders with a sharp drop in EUR/USD to digest. Right now, all eyes are on upcoming economic indicators to determine whether these moves are going to hold or if a reversal may be on the cards.

Donald has doubled down on his stance, confirming that levies on Canada and Mexico are likely to come into force by early March. Although specific timing for Europe remains uncertain, the warning is loud enough. Markets are wasting no time in adjusting for the likelihood of retaliatory measures, which could unsettle trade further. In the midst of all this, the Dollar Index has shot above 107.00, highlighting the currency’s current strength.

Meanwhile, policymakers in Brussels are making it clear that they won’t simply stand by. The European Commission has already issued a strong response, warning that any unjustified tariffs will be met with equal force. Still, with political uncertainty lingering in Germany and weak demand acting as a drag, there are growing concerns that the bloc’s economy might struggle to absorb further pressure. Investors will need to keep an eye out for any additional signs of weakness over the coming weeks.

Over in the US, the economy continues to post robust data. The latest figures show Durable Goods Orders climbing 3.1% in January, a performance above what analysts had projected. Jobless claims also came in higher than expected at 242,000, suggesting some softening in the labour market but not enough to worry policymakers just yet. Overall, this gives the Federal Reserve more space to keep its monetary stance steady.

Looking ahead, the PCE inflation report for January is set to be a major focal point for traders. Any unexpected spike in price pressures could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates elevated. Meanwhile, fresh consumer price data coming out of the Eurozone is another major piece of the puzzle. If inflation stays sticky on that side of the Atlantic, it may push the European Central Bank to maintain a firm stance on interest rates, despite broader economic struggles.

Technically, EUR/USD is having a tough time holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, indicating that downward momentum remains intact for now. Support is visible near 1.0285, while the December peak of 1.0630 sits as a key resistance level. If the pair fails to stabilise soon, further declines could be in store. However, any shift in fundamentals might change the course of price action.

OPEC+ is considering an April oil output increase but faces uncertainty regarding sanctions and tariffs. While Russia and the UAE support the output hike, other members, including Saudi Arabia, prefer to postpone.

Crude oil prices have risen by $1.52 (+2.22%) to $70.14, reaching an intraday high of $70.51 and a low of $68.64. This upward movement is approaching a key resistance level.

The 100-day moving average at $71.31 is a critical point for buyers. Should the price break above this level, it may lead to stronger bullish momentum, with the next resistance at the 200-day moving average of $73.68.

If prices do not surpass the 100-day moving average, selling pressure may increase. Conversely, a breakout above $71.31 and $73.68 would indicate a shift towards a stronger bullish trend.

Uncertainty surrounding sanctions and tariffs adds complexity to the decision-making process within OPEC+. While Moscow and Abu Dhabi advocate for an increase in production as early as April, Riyadh and other members are inclined to wait. This division leaves the market in a state of anticipation, with traders closely watching for any statement that may tip the balance one way or the other.

The recent climb in crude oil prices suggests growing optimism among buyers. A gain of $1.52 (+2.22%) has pushed prices to $70.14, with an intraday peak of $70.51 and a low of $68.64. Momentum has brought prices near an area that has posed challenges in the past.

Technical indicators now play an essential role. The 100-day moving average, currently sitting at $71.31, represents a key threshold. If buyers manage to drive prices above this point, the resulting momentum could extend gains towards $73.68, where the 200-day moving average stands as a further hurdle. Historically, such levels often generate both support and resistance, making them areas where buying and selling orders tend to cluster.

If the price struggles to move above the 100-day mark, downward pressure could mount. This would invite stronger selling activity, reinforcing the argument that recent gains were nothing more than a temporary move. However, should a decisive break above $71.31 occur, attention would quickly shift to whether $73.68 can be surpassed. If so, this could signal a broader shift in market sentiment.

Traders should remain attentive to both technical signals and statements from key OPEC+ participants. Any unexpected shift in policy discussions could send prices moving rapidly in either direction, testing the conviction of both buyers and sellers.

The US Dollar (USD) has strengthened slightly, though gains against major currencies remain limited. European stocks have declined, while US equity futures show some firmness.

Bond markets have softened, with Treasury yields rising by 4-5 basis points. The mixed performance of the USD appears influenced by tariff uncertainties and month-end demand.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) are lagging, whereas the Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) are performing better. Technical indicators show the USD trading below its 100-day moving average, with sensitivity to weak US economic data following a recent drop in consumer confidence.

The dollar’s modest rise suggests that traders are not entirely convinced of its direction, especially with ongoing questions about trade policy and the usual month-end shifts in currency flows. Even though there is some resilience in US markets, European equities have lost ground, indicating that risk appetite is under pressure. Meanwhile, the bond market is adjusting, with Treasury yields edging higher.

Among the major currencies, the yen and franc are underperforming, hinting at declining demand for traditionally safer assets. At the same time, the peso and Canadian dollar are showing relative strength, which could be partly due to stabilising commodity markets or confidence in North American economic prospects.

From a technical perspective, the dollar is holding below its 100-day moving average, reinforcing the idea that it needs a stronger push—perhaps in the form of solid economic data—to sustain any upward movement. Traders have already seen how quickly sentiment can turn following weaker US reports, such as the recent soft consumer confidence figures.

With all of this in mind, we are watching how economic releases shape expectations. Markets are highly responsive to shifts in data, and any signs of further weakness could weigh on the dollar, affecting broader asset pricing. Bond yields are another focal point, as their movement reflects adjustments in interest rate outlooks and risk preferences.

As we move forward, the balance between market positioning and fresh macroeconomic signals will determine how the dollar trades. Recent movements in US futures suggest some optimism, but whether that translates into broader momentum depends on the incoming data and any policy shifts that emerge.

European equity markets experienced a decline, with the Stoxx 600 dropping by 1.0% and the German DAX falling by 1.2%. Other notable movements included France’s CAC, decreasing by 0.7%, while the UK FTSE 100 gained 0.2%.

Spain’s IBEX dropped by 0.6%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB fell by 1.6%. The German market remained resilient amid discussions of potential 25% tariffs on Europe proposed by Trump.

This downturn reflects unease among investors, with weakness spreading across sectors. The Stoxx 600 struggling suggests broader concerns, not just country-specific troubles. Germany’s DAX saw an even larger pullback, dragging down sentiment further. France’s CAC fared slightly better but still ended lower, underscoring how widespread the selling pressure remained. While the UK’s FTSE 100 managed to stay in positive territory, this tells us more about domestic factors than broader optimism.

Spain’s IBEX and Italy’s FTSE MIB followed the downward trend, with the latter taking the heaviest losses. Pressure on Italian stocks reflects investor caution, and market participants should consider how risk appetite has shifted. Shortly after Trump’s remarks on possible tariffs, German equities showed some ability to hold firm, but this is not necessarily indicative of longer-term stability. The possibility of a trade conflict raises fresh concerns, and this is where reactions become more layered.

If trade restrictions move closer to reality, we will likely see renewed volatility, particularly in sectors that rely on European-American trade. Those with positions exposed to these industries should remain attentive to statements from policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic. Short-term moves may not tell the whole story, but they often dictate sentiment shifts that can build momentum.

The fact that the UK market was able to post a slight gain highlights diverging regional factors. Currency movements may have helped mitigate broader weakness, but this doesn’t mean risks are absent. We are watching how investors position themselves, especially in response to central bank expectations. These elements will shape where liquidity flows, affecting how assets behave in the short term.

With political discussions weighing on European shares, traders should monitor for any further developments hinting at policy shifts. Making sense of which industries are most exposed will be just as important as tracking overall performance. While broad indices tell part of the story, sector-specific trends could hold the key to understanding where opportunities or risks might emerge in the coming weeks.

Initial Jobless Claims in the US rose to 242,000 for the week ending February 22, surpassing expectations and exceeding the prior week’s revised figure of 220,000. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 1.2%, while the four-week moving average increased by 8,500 to 224,000.

Continuing Jobless Claims decreased by 5,000, reaching 1.862 million for the week ending February 15. The data indicates ongoing changes in the employment landscape amidst economic shifts.

A noticeable rise in initial jobless claims suggests that more individuals are filing for unemployment benefits than anticipated. The figure jumping to 242,000 implies that layoffs may be picking up, a factor that often plays into market expectations around monetary policy. At the same time, the four-week moving average has climbed, which smooths out weekly volatility and further supports the idea of a weakening labour market.

The insured unemployment rate ticking up to 1.2% provides another layer of insight. While still relatively low, any upward movement hints at a possible slowing in hiring or increased difficulty in finding new employment. That being said, a single week’s report does not establish a trend, but the rise does stand out given broader concerns about economic momentum.

Continuing claims, on the other hand, dipped slightly—down by 5,000 to 1.862 million. This hints that some who had previously filed for unemployment may have found work or dropped out of the system. However, the overall number remains elevated compared to earlier in the year, meaning there are still pressures in the job market that should not be overlooked.

For traders focused on derivatives, jobless claims serve as a key input for understanding where monetary policy might be headed. A weaker labour market could reinforce expectations of rate adjustments, potentially affecting bond yields, currency movements, and overall market sentiment. That makes this data particularly relevant in the days ahead, as it will shape expectations around upcoming economic releases and any shifts in the central bank’s stance.

The AUDUSD has decreased by nearly 0.9%, marking its largest decline of 2025 and the most substantial drop since December 2024. This decline follows President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

Amid Australia’s close economic ties to China, negative developments impact the AUD and NZD, contributing to notable decreases today. The AUDUSD has approached the 50% retracement of the February range at 0.62474, with the day’s low at 0.62495.

Price action near 0.62474 indicates a balance between buying and selling, with a potential break below this level leading to further declines. Target levels for downside pressure include 0.62348 and 0.62097.

Conversely, should buyers defend 0.62474, initial upside targets are set at 0.62743 and 0.6285. The AUDUSD remains under pressure, with further declines possible if risk-off sentiment continues.

This sharp drop in the AUDUSD reflects how external trade policies directly affect investor sentiment and market positioning. With Donald’s tariff announcement targeting three of the United States’ largest trading partners, risk-sensitive currencies, including Australia’s, have felt the weight of the shift almost immediately. Given the country’s deep economic reliance on Chinese demand, fresh trade barriers have only amplified pressure on an already struggling currency.

The technical positioning of the pair is now highly relevant for the coming sessions. The dip towards 0.62474 signals that traders are weighing whether this level serves as a holding point or merely a temporary pause. Price action around this area suggests buyers and sellers are testing each other’s conviction. A decisive drop below would likely trigger further losses with the next downside focus landing at 0.62348. Beyond that, 0.62097 may follow should bearish pressure remain unchallenged.

However, stability at 0.62474 would offer a reprieve for those looking for an upward move. If buying interest strengthens, we would then turn towards 0.62743 as an area of interest, followed by 0.6285. Any recovery will likely depend on a shift in market sentiment or a pullback in the broader risk-off movement that is currently gripping markets.

Risk appetite remains fragile, and with fresh trade tensions dictating flows, the coming weeks could see increased volatility. Traders will need to remain focused on key technical levels while also monitoring potential responses from policymakers. A continuation of negative trade rhetoric or intensifying headwinds from China would lean heavily against any sustained recovery attempts.

Durable Goods Orders in the US increased by 3.1% in January, totalling $286 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. This rise follows a 2.2% drop in December and exceeds the market expectation of a 2% increase.

Excluding transportation, new orders were nearly unchanged; however, orders excluding defence grew by 3.5%. Transportation equipment, which had previously seen two consecutive monthly decreases, contributed significantly by increasing by $8.6 billion or 9.8%, reaching $96.5 billion.

Despite these figures, the US Dollar’s valuation remained relatively unaffected, with the US Dollar Index up 0.16% at 106.65.

What we see here is a rebound in durable goods orders following the decline in December, which suggests there has been renewed activity in manufacturing. The 3.1% increase exceeded expectations, indicating a stronger-than-anticipated demand for long-lasting goods. However, when excluding transportation, orders were essentially flat, meaning the overall increase was largely driven by that sector. The sharp rise in transportation equipment orders, which were up by nearly 10%, was the driving force behind this recovery.

That said, defence-related orders did not weigh down the numbers, as figures excluding defence rose by 3.5%. This points to a recovery in commercial and consumer segments, rather than military spending artificially boosting the total. Traders should take note that this type of breakdown helps clarify whether demand across different sectors is broad-based or narrowly concentrated.

Despite these figures, the currency did not see much movement, with the US Dollar Index posting only a modest 0.16% gain. This suggests that markets were largely prepared for an increase, or that other macroeconomic factors held greater influence on the dollar. With this in mind, those involved in derivatives trading should not assume that strong data points alone will move the currency, particularly if market expectations have already factored them in.

Looking ahead, future readings on economic health, such as upcoming manufacturing surveys and employment reports, will help determine whether this increase was an isolated rebound or the start of a sustained trend. The lack of reaction in the dollar also means that traders may need to look beyond headline figures and consider broader economic conditions before adjusting positions.