In January, US durable goods orders increased by 3.1%, surpassing the expected rise of 2.0%. The previous month’s data was revised from -2.2% to -1.8%.

Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 0.8%, compared to the anticipated 0.3%. The earlier figure for these orders was revised down from 0.5% to 0.2%.

Excluding transportation, orders remained flat at 0.0%, while excluding defence, they increased by 3.5%, a revision from the earlier -2.4% which was adjusted to -1.8%.

January’s rise in durable goods orders reflects a stronger level of activity in the sector than many had expected. The revised data from December, which was adjusted upwards, changes the context slightly but does not erase the general softness seen at the end of last year. That said, fresh figures suggest a rebound, most clearly in headline orders, which advanced beyond market forecasts.

Looking deeper, demand for core capital goods—those that exclude aircraft and defence—was also more resilient than anticipated. The prior figure for this category was revised lower, but the latest numbers indicate firms continued to invest, outpacing expectations. This category is particularly useful in assessing business confidence, so an upswing at this moment hints at a more optimistic outlook from companies looking ahead.

On the other hand, not all areas reported the same momentum. Orders outside of transport came in unchanged, meaning the broader trend for manufacturing demand remains uneven. However, once defence-related goods are removed, orders expanded at a faster pace than initially thought, again reflecting an improvement rather than further weakness.

These details shift attention to what comes next. Given that business investment appears to be holding up, there is reason to consider how this might affect sentiment and positioning. Numbers from the previous month were not as weak as first published, and with January showing renewed strength, expectations may start adjusting upward. Markets could react accordingly, especially in areas sensitive to changes in industrial activity.

Data releases in the coming weeks will have to be watched closely. If further reports confirm sustained demand, adjustments may be needed in response to shifting expectations. However, if this proves to be a one-off bounce, positions based on stronger durable goods figures might need rethinking. There are also broader factors at play, with policy decisions still shaping overall conditions. The next moves will rely on whether this recovery in orders persists or if it gives way to fresh uncertainty.

Continuing jobless claims in the United States reached 1.862 million as of February 14, which is lower than the anticipated figure of 1.87 million. This decrease suggests a slight improvement in the job market.

In currency markets, EUR/USD is testing support around 1.0400, driven by a strengthening US Dollar in light of upcoming Federal Reserve remarks. GBP/USD is currently around 1.2630, reflecting renewed demand for the Greenback.

Gold prices are experiencing downward pressure, trading near two-week lows below $2,880 per ounce, influenced by higher yields and a stronger US Dollar. Meanwhile, Bitcoin shows some recovery, trading around $86,000 after a sharp drop earlier in the week.

Inflation trends in February indicate a potential decrease in France, attributed to a reduction in regulated electricity prices. However, other Eurozone countries continue to see rising prices, particularly in services.

The latest figures show that fewer people are continuing to claim unemployment benefits than expected. While the difference is small, it still hints at a steadier employment situation. A healthier job market generally feeds into stronger consumer spending, which in turn can affect central bank policy decisions.

In foreign exchange, the Euro is struggling against the Dollar, hovering around a key level. A stronger Dollar, partly influenced by anticipation of upcoming Federal Reserve comments, is driving this move. The Pound is also under pressure, but its current level suggests there is still reasonable demand.

Gold is coming under pressure, slipping to its lowest point in two weeks. Rising bond yields and renewed strength in the Dollar are making the metal less attractive. Investors appear to be shifting funds away from safe-haven assets, at least in the short term.

Bitcoin, after suffering a sharp decline earlier in the week, is showing some recovery. Trading around $86,000, the cryptocurrency remains volatile, though buyers seem willing to step in at current levels. Market participants will be watching whether this bounce has momentum or if another leg lower is in store.

Inflation data suggests prices in France may be easing slightly, helped by lower regulated electricity tariffs. However, elsewhere in the Eurozone, costs—particularly for services—are still climbing. This creates a difficult environment for monetary authorities, who must balance inflation control with the broader economic outlook.

As the North American session opens, the EURUSD and GBPUSD have experienced declines followed by recoveries, while the USDJPY has responded positively to easing risk-off sentiment after Nvidia’s earnings report. US yields are up, crude oil trades above $69, and gold is down over 1% for the second time in three days, now at $2886.

Bitcoin has increased by 2.87%, reaching $2885, but has fluctuated from a high of $99,508 to a low of $82,133 since last Friday. The price has rebounded towards the broken 38.2% level at $85,520.

The economic calendar features several significant announcements, including discussions from FOMC members and various key indicators. Expectations for the Preliminary GDP are at 2.3%, with unemployment claims forecasted at 222,000.

In equity markets, futures indicate a higher open, with the Dow expected to rise by 111 points, the S&P by 37 points, and the Nasdaq by 163 points. Recent closes varied, with the Dow declining, while the S&P remained nearly unchanged.

European indices reflect mixed results, with the German DAX down 0.65% and France’s CAC down 0.31%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 has increased by 0.28%. US debt yields are higher across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.292%.

In commodity markets, crude oil is up by 41%. Gold is down by 1.04%, and Bitcoin shows an increase of 2.67% at $86,313.

The early movements in EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest a period of uncertainty as both pairs initially fell before reversing direction. This indicates shifting sentiment, with traders reacting to external influences rather than committing to a clear trend. Meanwhile, USDJPY has strengthened on reduced risk aversion, helped by a boost in confidence following Nvidia’s earnings results. These shifts imply a market still absorbing broader economic developments, adjusting positions accordingly.

Bond yields in the US have pushed higher, suggesting expectations of continued resilience in economic activity. The 10-year yield at 4.292% aligns with this positioning, as investors reassess the balance between growth prospects and potential policy adjustments. These changes in fixed income markets should not be overlooked, as they offer insight into broader risk preferences.

Crude oil maintaining levels above $69 suggests steady demand despite persistent concerns about global economic momentum. The movement in gold, down more than 1% for the second time in three days, points to reduced safe-haven demand. This decline comes as markets adjust to stronger yields, making interest-bearing assets more attractive compared to non-yielding commodities.

Bitcoin’s fluctuations, ranging from $99,508 to $82,133 since last Friday, highlight the asset’s continued volatility. The rebound toward the broken 38.2% retracement level at $85,520 suggests technical traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels. With the latest increase of 2.87% to $2885, there is an ongoing tug-of-war between short-term momentum and broader structural forces.

Upcoming economic data will play a key role in shaping expectations in the near term. The focus on Preliminary GDP figures, forecasted at 2.3%, will offer insights into overall growth momentum, while unemployment claims projected at 222,000 will serve as a gauge for labour market strength. These indicators will help refine expectations regarding future adjustments in monetary policy.

Equities are positioned for a strong open, with futures pointing higher. A projected increase of 111 points for the Dow, 37 for the S&P, and 163 for the Nasdaq suggests renewed optimism. The mixed results in previous sessions show hesitation, particularly with the Dow declining while the S&P remained largely unchanged.

European markets reflect a similarly measured stance. With Germany’s DAX down 0.65% and France’s CAC lower by 0.31%, sentiment appears cautious across key indices. However, the UK’s FTSE 100 stands apart, rising 0.28%, suggesting regional differences in risk appetite.

In commodities, crude oil prices continue to gain, showing a 41% increase, reinforcing buying interest in energy markets. Gold remains under pressure, down 1.04%, while Bitcoin’s latest movement to $86,313 confirms persistent trading activity in digital assets.

Taken together, these movements point to a market adjusting to shifting expectations on economic growth, policy direction, and risk dynamics. Traders reacting to these developments should remain aware of the momentum already in place, while keeping a close eye on upcoming data releases that may reshape sentiment once again.

Core personal consumption expenditures in the United States for the fourth quarter were reported at 2.7%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%. This data reflects consumer spending trends and influences economic assessments.

Consumer spending is a key indicator, contributing to overall economic growth. The increase suggests a more robust economic environment than initially anticipated for the quarter.

When core personal consumption expenditures came in at 2.7% for the fourth quarter, surpassing an expected 2.5%, it pointed to stronger-than-expected consumer activity. This measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation tied to household spending. A higher reading suggests that demand remains steady, which can affect inflation expectations and monetary policy decisions.

Consumer spending, being a major component of economic growth, plays a role in shaping how policymakers view the broader economy. A rise in this metric during the final quarter of the year implies that households continued to spend at a steady pace, reinforcing the idea that economic conditions remained healthy as the year came to a close.

For derivatives traders, these figures provide useful insight. A higher-than-expected reading may lead markets to anticipate tighter monetary policy for a longer period. If spending is holding up, central bankers may see less urgency to ease policy quickly, which could influence interest rate expectations and, in turn, affect bond yields and equity valuations. Derivatives tied to rate expectations could see movement as traders adjust positions based on shifting sentiments around future policy actions.

Jerome recently noted that inflation progress would need to be sustained before considering rate adjustments. A reading above forecasts leans towards supporting his cautious stance. Market participants should take this into account, as it suggests that discussions about rate cuts may not gain traction without additional data confirming a downward trajectory in inflation.

Chris pointed out that inflation persistence remains an element to monitor. If consumer spending continues to run hot, it could sustain price pressures. That would argue against the case for early relief in monetary conditions. Any forthcoming data releases related to spending and inflation should thus be scrutinised for signs that trends are either softening or holding firm.

We should observe incoming data carefully. If personal consumption remains elevated, and spending does not slow in the first quarter, it would reinforce expectations that policy could remain steady for a while longer. On the other hand, if a cooling trend emerges, that could shift probabilities in favour of a different market reaction.

Looking ahead, positioning strategies should reflect these developments. Whether adjusting hedges or reassessing exposure to interest rate-sensitive instruments, market pricing will adjust dynamically based on upcoming reports. What happens next will depend largely on how the next few data prints come in, shaping traders’ expectations and driving short-term opportunities.

Following eBay’s recent earnings report, the stock has demonstrated a decline in momentum, facing resistance at key levels. The analysis indicates a downward trend, making it suitable for establishing short positions based on volume profile and resistance zones.

The short trade plan outlines three sell orders with a structured approach. The total position size is 600 shares, with a maximum loss capped at $1,200 and a potential reward of $5,400. The targeted exit point is set at $62.02.

Traders are advised to manage risk by closing out partial profits at strategic levels while maintaining focus on the primary target.

eBay’s recent performance has shown a weakening trend, unable to sustain upward movement beyond identified resistance areas. As selling pressure increases, the market suggests lower price levels in the short term, reinforcing the case for downside exposure. With volume profile analysis confirming areas of seller dominance, the trade plan aligns with historical price behaviour.

The structure of this trade is built around three staggered short orders, ensuring an optimal entry while controlling exposure. A total of 600 shares have been allocated, distributing risk while allowing for flexibility as conditions unfold. Strict limits have been set on losses, with a predefined cap of $1,200, maintaining discipline in execution. Meanwhile, the reward scenario presents an opportunity to gain up to $5,400, adhering to a favourable risk-to-reward ratio.

Levels for partial exits act as key points to lock in gains and shield against reversals. By securing profits incrementally, exposure is managed without sacrificing the broader objective. The final profit target remains fixed at $62.02, a level informed by previous price interactions and current resistance.

In the coming sessions, it will be necessary to observe volume and order flow as price tests strategic areas. If the market responds with renewed selling, the plan remains intact. However, adverse moves would require quick adjustments, ensuring capital preservation without unnecessary hesitation.

Personal consumption expenditures prices in the United States for the fourth quarter increased by 2.4%, surpassing the anticipated 2.3%. This data provides insight into consumer behaviour and economic trends.

The report also notes movements in various currencies, including EUR/USD, which faced selling pressure due to a stronger US Dollar. GBP/USD traded around 1.2630 amid increasing demand for the Greenback.

Gold prices experienced downward pressure, hitting new lows at sub-$2,880 per ounce, while Bitcoin rebounded to approximately $86,000 after significant fluctuations.

In Europe, inflation is expected to decline sharply in France, although prices for services continue to rise across the Eurozone.

The latest data from the US shows that personal consumption expenditures prices rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter, slightly above forecasts of 2.3%. This tells us that inflationary pressures are still present, even if they appear to be easing compared to earlier periods. For traders, this means a reassessment of rate expectations and, potentially, shifts in risk sentiment across markets.

Currency markets reflected these dynamics, with the US Dollar strengthening against both the Euro and the Pound. Selling pressure on EUR/USD suggests that markets favoured the Greenback, likely in response to expectations that US monetary policy may remain tight for longer. Similarly, GBP/USD holding near 1.2630 indicates that Sterling was unable to gain traction, despite ongoing speculation about the Bank of England’s future moves.

Gold, meanwhile, dropped to new lows below $2,880 per ounce. The decline reinforces the idea that investors have been adjusting their allocations amid shifting interest rate expectations. The downward move in gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, suggests that traders are weighing up whether central banks will maintain restrictive monetary policies or move towards easing later in the year.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, rebounded to roughly $86,000 after volatile swings. This resilience suggests that market participants are still willing to engage with higher-risk assets. The rebound may also reflect broader optimism in digital assets, particularly if liquidity expectations remain supportive.

European inflation numbers are also shaping broader market sentiment. While inflation in France is set to fall sharply, service prices throughout the Eurozone remain on the rise. This contrast suggests that inflationary pressures are not uniform across sectors, making it necessary for policymakers to remain measured in their approach. Market participants need to account for these varying conditions, as they could affect interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and, by extension, the attractiveness of the Euro in the weeks ahead.

The bond market is testing another key level, with the US 10-year yields rising by 5.5 basis points to 4.303%. Gold is down 1% to $2,887.82, potentially ending its eight-week winning streak.

Spanish February preliminary CPI is reported at 3.0%, matching expectations, while Switzerland’s Q4 GDP grew by 0.2%. The Eurozone’s January M3 money supply rose 3.6%, below the anticipated 3.8%, alongside a stable consumer confidence index of -13.6.

In the currency market, the USD and CAD performed well, while the JPY lagged. European equities declined, and US S&P 500 futures increased by 0.6%.

The movement in bond yields indicates shifting expectations in fixed-income markets, with US 10-year yields climbing to 4.303%. Such a rise suggests changing views on inflation or monetary policy, both of which can impact broader financial conditions. Higher Treasury yields often weigh on interest-rate-sensitive assets, which may help explain the decline seen in gold prices. A 1% drop in the precious metal brings it to $2,887.82, raising the possibility of an end to its eight-week advance.

Spain’s preliminary inflation data for February aligns with expectations at 3.0%, providing no surprise on that front. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s economy expanded by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, reinforcing the perception of steady, if unspectacular, growth. A softer-than-expected rise in the Eurozone’s M3 money supply, at 3.6% instead of the forecasted 3.8%, suggests liquidity growth is slowing. Consumer confidence in the region remains unchanged at -13.6, reflecting persistent caution among households.

In the currency space, the US dollar and Canadian dollar exhibited relative strength, while the Japanese yen underperformed. This pattern highlights diverging monetary policies and risk preferences. European equities moved lower, reflecting weaker sentiment across regional stock markets. Meanwhile, US equities, as indicated by S&P 500 futures, posted a 0.6% gain, pointing to improved risk appetite despite fluctuations elsewhere.

Given these developments, traders should closely monitor how shifts in yield levels influence broader market behaviour. Bond moves often feed into credit conditions and equity valuations, particularly at a time when central bank decisions remain a primary market focus. Currency traders will want to account for relative central bank policies and capital flows, as differences in rate expectations continue to drive volatility. For commodities, any further adjustments in inflation or interest rate outlooks could have direct effects on gold’s ability to sustain recent gains.

The United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annualised growth for the fourth quarter aligns with expectations at 2.3%. This figure reflects the overall economic performance during that period.

In currency markets, the EUR/USD pair is approaching 1.0400 as the US Dollar strengthens amid renewed buying pressure. Similarly, GBP/USD is trading around 1.2630, influenced by increased USD demand.

Gold prices have dropped to two-week lows near $2,880 per ounce, driven by a rise in US Dollar value and higher yields. Bitcoin has also shown volatility, recovering to around $86,000 after a recent decline.

In Europe, inflation is expected to decline in France, mainly due to reduced electricity prices, whereas services prices are still rising across the Eurozone.

When we consider the annualised 2.3% growth rate in the United States for the fourth quarter, it serves as a solid confirmation of economic stability. Expectations were met, meaning there are no immediate surprises for traders that could drive abrupt positioning changes. This level of growth, neither sluggish nor booming, allows monetary policymakers to maintain their stance without feeling pressured to pivot in an unexpected direction.

In foreign exchange, the shift in the EUR/USD exchange rate towards 1.0400 suggests the greenback is regaining traction. A stronger Dollar typically follows stronger Treasury yields, which lately have fuelled buying interest. With market participants seeking safe-haven assets or responding to economic momentum, this pressure on the Euro may persist, particularly if European inflation figures continue declining as anticipated.

For Sterling, trading near 1.2630 against the Dollar reflects similar forces. While the British economy has its own set of variables, ranging from domestic growth to Bank of England expectations, the common thread here is rising demand for the US currency. If this trend extends, holding long positions on the Pound may require careful justification.

Gold’s pullback to around $2,880 per ounce reflects the relationship between higher yields and the appeal of non-yielding assets. With the Dollar strengthening and interest rates remaining supportive, there’s little urgency to move into precious metals as a hedge. This could limit upside potential unless market sentiment shifts towards risk aversion or central banks adjust their policy stance unexpectedly.

Bitcoin’s recent rebound to $86,000 comes after a volatile period, but that is nothing new in this space. When prices dip, buyers often step in aggressively, pushing valuations back up. It’s worth watching whether this momentum sustains or if further corrections lie ahead, especially with broader risk sentiment in mind.

On the European front, inflation in France appears to be easing, largely due to lower electricity costs. However, price pressures in services remain, which means inflationary concerns aren’t entirely fading. Across the Eurozone, this divide between falling energy costs and rising service sector prices could shape upcoming central bank decisions, especially with policymakers needing to assess where inflationary risks persist.

All of these factors tie together, setting up an environment where currency and commodity traders must consider multiple influences at once. With interest rate expectations, energy prices, and broader economic stability all at play, positioning in the coming weeks requires close attention to both data releases and sentiment shifts.

The USDCHF pair has recently fallen below a support zone but is now rising back above it. The USD is currently supported against major currencies due to a risk-off mood following poor US data releases.

Recent weak economic reports include the US Flash Services PMI and a weak Consumer Confidence report, although inflation expectations have risen. Upcoming NFP and CPI reports will be important ahead of the March FOMC decision.

Technically, the daily chart shows a break below 0.8960, with potential for buyers to rally towards 0.92. On the 4-hour chart, recent price action indicates buyers may target a deeper pullback to 0.90.

The 1-hour chart reflects a current counter-trendline, where a pullback could lead to a rally or a further decline towards 0.87. Key upcoming data includes US Jobless Claims and PCE figures.

This latest turn of events places traders in a tough spot, as the dollar regains support despite earlier weakness. The dip under a zone that had previously acted as a floor signals vulnerability, yet the swift rebound suggests buying pressure remains strong. With risk sentiment leaning cautious following disappointing economic indicators, this shift is not entirely unexpected. Market participants appear to be reassessing their outlook as upcoming reports loom.

The Flash Services PMI and weaker consumer confidence data paint a picture of economic concern, even though inflation expectations have inched higher. If upcoming figures show further strain in the labour market or softer spending, investors may question whether Federal Reserve policy needs adjusting. The NFP and CPI numbers will be watched closely, as they will set the tone for how officials approach the next rate decision.

From a technical standpoint, the breach of 0.8960 on the daily timeframe initially hinted at a deeper sell-off. However, price is now bouncing back, and the possibility of a move towards 0.92 cannot be dismissed. The four-hour chart offers a more detailed look at this shift, where recent movement suggests buyers may attempt to push towards 0.90 before any renewed selling emerges. The one-hour chart provides further insight, where price currently trades near a counter-trend level. Whether traders take advantage of this to drive price higher or let it slip towards 0.87 will depend on upcoming developments.

Attention now turns to jobless claims and PCE inflation data, both of which could influence short-term direction. If initial claims rise above expectations, concern over labour market health may resurface, adding pressure on the dollar. Conversely, if PCE data shows inflation remains stubborn, expectations for rate cuts may be pushed further out. This uncertainty means price action could remain volatile in the days ahead.

The four-week average of initial jobless claims in the United States rose from 215.25K to 224K as of February 21, 2025.

The shifts in labour market claims suggest changing conditions ahead. In related financial news, the EUR/USD reached weekly lows near 1.0420, while GBP/USD fell to two-day lows around 1.2630. Additionally, gold prices declined to two-week lows around $2,880 per ounce. Bitcoin recovered to trade around $86,000 after a notable drop earlier in the week. Lastly, inflation is expected to have eased in France during February, contrasting with persistent rapid price rises in services across the Eurozone.

The rise in initial jobless claims in the United States points to a weakening in hiring conditions. With the four-week average increasing to 224K, the trend suggests that businesses may be adjusting their employment strategies, either due to shifting demand or efforts to control costs. If this persists, it could temper expectations for aggressive action from policymakers, particularly regarding interest rate changes. Markets tend to react swiftly to employment data, and this rise may weigh on confidence surrounding economic strength.

In the currency space, movement in the euro and the pound against the US dollar reflects changing risk sentiment. The euro’s dip to around 1.0420 for the week highlights pressure on the common currency, possibly driven by expectations around slower economic performance or monetary policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. Likewise, the pound’s slide to 1.2630 over two days indicates increased caution, potentially linked to domestic economic concerns or external factors influencing broader market positioning.

Gold’s decline to around $2,880 per ounce over two weeks underscores a shift in trading sentiment. Typically sought as a protective asset, the price movement hints at adjustments in expectations regarding inflation or interest rates. If investors anticipate less urgency for rate cuts or a more stable outlook for inflation, the appeal of holding gold tends to soften.

Bitcoin’s recovery to approximately $86,000 follows an earlier sharp drop, illustrating the usual swings seen in digital asset markets. The rebound suggests renewed buying interest at lower levels, though traders remain attentive to potential regulatory developments and broader liquidity trends that could impact further price action.

Inflation trends in France contrast with a different picture across the Eurozone. While price pressures in services remain persistent, France appears to be experiencing a slowdown in inflation for February. If this continues, it might invite discussions about policy adjustments suitable for varying inflation conditions between countries within the bloc.

For derivative traders, these shifts shape immediate risk assessments. Currency movements demand precise attention to rate decisions and economic forecasts, while gold’s price action signals changing appetite for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the labour market data calls for monitoring further economic reports, as shifts in employment could prompt new volatility.