Gold’s price reached a record high of $2,956 during North American trading, supported by a stable US Dollar and unchanged US yields. This uncertainty surrounding trade policies under President Trump has influenced bullion prices amid escalating tensions involving the US, Canada, and Mexico.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note decreased to 4.443%, boosting precious metal values. Real yields are steady at approximately 2.017%, and mixed business activity data from the US reflects rising inflation expectations and declining consumer sentiment.

XAU/USD maintains an uptrend, although potential buyers may be cautious, indicated by an overbought Relative Strength Index. If the price surpasses $2,956, the next resistance level may be $3,000, while a drop below $2,916 could see it test $2,900.

Gold serves as a safe haven and hedge against inflation during economic instability. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022, the highest yearly purchase on record, with notable increases from emerging economies.

The price of gold reacts to various factors, such as geopolitical unrest and interest rate changes. It generally rises when the Dollar weakens, while a stronger Dollar typically suppresses gold prices.

These shifts in gold prices, supported by a steady Dollar and consistent yields, show that the metal remains highly sought after during political and economic uncertainty. Seeing bullion climb to a fresh high of $2,956 suggests that traders are continuing to lean towards gold as a hedge, particularly with tensions growing between North American nations.

With the US 10-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.443%, precious metals received a natural lift. This, coupled with real yields holding at 2.017%, signals steady demand. Business activity data in the US paints a mixed picture, with inflation expectations increasing while consumer sentiment is weakening. Such conditions tend to bolster gold’s appeal as a store of value, given that inflation pressures erode the purchasing power of cash holdings.

As things stand, gold remains in an upward trajectory, though buyers might be hesitant to commit fully due to the Relative Strength Index entering overbought territory. If gold pushes past $2,956, the next hurdle lies at $3,000—an obvious psychological level that could act as a magnet for price action. However, if momentum falters and it slips under $2,916, then $2,900 would likely come into focus as the next support.

Given that demand remains strong from governments—central banks accumulated 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022, marking the highest annual acquisition ever recorded—this provides another supportive factor. Much of this buying came from emerging economies, which have been increasing their reserves to reduce reliance on foreign currencies.

Gold’s behaviour is shaped by multiple influences, from geopolitical stress to changes in interest rates. When the Dollar loses value, this generally lifts gold, and the reverse is true when the greenback strengthens. Traders should remain alert to external events that might shift expectations around monetary policy or global stability, as these tend to be the most immediate triggers for price action.

Germany is contemplating EUR 200 billion ($210 billion) in emergency defence expenditure to rebuild its military. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is negotiating with the Social Democrats (SPD) to find ways to bypass borrowing restrictions.

The objective is to secure a vote before March 24 to prevent potential constitutional challenges. Funding strategies include creating a special fund for military spending and aid to Ukraine, expanding the existing EUR 100 billion defence allocation, and adjusting the “debt brake” for increased military borrowing, requiring a two-thirds majority.

Fringe parties have attained a blocking minority, complicating future votes. Merz has committed to enhanced military investment to address Russian threats amid existing political hurdles.

This discussion on Germany’s military financing should be viewed through the lens of political urgency rather than routine budgeting. The negotiations aim to bypass constitutional hurdles while securing enough parliamentary backing before a critical deadline. With opposition parties holding sway over specific votes, the process is anything but straightforward.

Friedrich faces a delicate balancing act, working with the SPD while circumventing potential roadblocks from smaller factions. The effort to expand defence funding extends beyond a singular budget increase—instead, it requires the reshaping of financial frameworks to accommodate long-term military commitments. One proposed method involves establishing a dedicated fund, shielding military expenditure from general budget constraints. Another involves modifying borrowing regulations, though this demands broad political backing.

We find that the timing raises the stakes. A deal must be struck swiftly to avoid unnecessary delays, which could introduce complications before a formal decision is reached. The March 24 deadline is not arbitrary. A failure to act promptly risks constitutional scrutiny, which could entangle defence financing in legal disputes. Given the political composition of Germany’s parliament, achieving the required majority presents a real challenge. Even though Friedrich’s party and the SPD may align on certain spending goals, smaller parties retain sufficient leverage to disrupt proceedings.

As the debate unfolds, Germany’s response to Russian military activity remains at the forefront. The trajectory of negotiations has broader implications, particularly for those considering risk in European markets. If political uncertainty grows, expect added volatility in financial instruments sensitive to German defence policy. Changes in borrowing rules could prompt shifts in government bond markets, affecting investor calculations.

The SPD may lean towards accommodating Friedrich’s goals, but internal disagreements could surface. Should coalition talks falter, new proposals might emerge, further complicating projections. If alternative funding structures gain traction, they could influence future budget protocols. Every revision to borrowing limits and spending mechanisms alters expectations about state-backed financial instruments. In particular, signs of hesitation from fiscal policymakers could have immediate repercussions.

For now, discussions remain fluid, with each development shaping potential outcomes. Negotiators must weigh immediate defence priorities against long-term fiscal constraints. Those watching these deliberations should pay attention to signs of parliamentary resistance. If smaller parties coalesce against major reforms, adjustments may be required, possibly leading to delays in proposed spending packages.

EUR/USD declined from an intraday high of 1.0530 to around 1.0460, influenced by a strong recovery in the US Dollar and concerns about potential political instability in Germany. The US Dollar Index rebounded to 106.40 following a drop to 106.10.

The US S&P Global PMI report indicated a slower rise in private business activity, with the Composite PMI falling to 50.4. A notable drop in the Services PMI to 49.7 was observed, while the Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.6.

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June rose to 63.5%. Weakness in the Euro resulted from Germany’s fractured political landscape, despite CDU leader Friedrich Merz securing majority votes.

German IFO data showed the IFO Business Climate at 85.2, below expectations. However, IFO Expectations improved to 85.4.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average offers support for EUR/USD around 1.0437. Key support is at the February 10 low of 1.0285, while resistance stands at the December 6 high of 1.0630.

The recent movement of EUR/USD suggests that traders are taking a cautious stance as the US Dollar regains its strength. A retreat from 1.0530 to 1.0460 came as confidence in the greenback grew, supported by a broader market reassessment of economic conditions in the United States. Factors such as political concerns in Germany added further weight on the Euro, leaving it vulnerable. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index’s rebound above 106.40 suggests investors are still leaning towards dollar strength, particularly following softer US data.

The drop in the US S&P Global PMI’s Composite measure to 50.4 indicates business activity remains stagnant. A slip in the Services PMI below 50 is particularly striking, as it signals contraction in a key component of the economy. In contrast, an uptick in the Manufacturing PMI to 51.6 suggests this sector is holding up better despite broader economic concerns. The reaction in interest rate expectations has been swift, with traders now assigning a higher probability—over 63%—that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June.

Germany’s political worries have kept the Euro under pressure. Even though Friedrich managed to secure a majority in his party, broader fractures in the German political system remain. This uncertainty, paired with weaker-than-expected IFO Business Climate numbers at 85.2, has contributed to a lack of conviction in the Euro. However, it is worth noting that future expectations measured by the IFO did improve slightly.

For those watching EUR/USD, technical price levels remain important in the coming sessions. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average is providing a floor at 1.0437, meaning we may see buying interest emerge at this level. If the pair moves lower, the next key level to monitor would be the February 10 low at 1.0285. On the upside, the December 6 high of 1.0630 remains the next level traders would target should momentum shift in the Euro’s favour.

Decisions in the weeks ahead will be shaped by incoming economic data and shifts in risk perceptions. With political concerns lingering and market sentiment fluctuating, each development could push the balance one way or the other.

NZDUSD buyers are currently positioned against higher technical levels. The 100-hour moving average supported the price during today’s trading.

Last week, NZDUSD rebounded after finding support at the 200-hour moving average and rose above a key swing area (0.5683–0.5694). After breaking above the 100-hour moving average (near 0.5715), the pair surged to a weekly high of 0.57716.

Following this high, price action has been inconsistent, moving up and down. Today’s price action showed a high near Friday’s level, while the low held at the 100-hour moving average, indicating modest buyer strength.

Key technical levels include upside targets at 0.57492 and 0.5771, with downside support at the 100-hour moving average. Maintaining above the 100-hour MA suggests a bullish trend, while a break below may lead to a test of the 200-hour MA for further direction. Buyers remain in control for the time being.

The current setup shows that buyers are holding ground, with price staying above the 100-hour moving average, which has played an important role in recent sessions. While volatility has led to swings in both directions, market participants with long positions have managed to stop sellers from gaining too much control.

The move higher last week started with a bounce off the 200-hour moving average, pushing past a previous resistance zone between 0.5683 and 0.5694. Breaking above 0.5715, a level that previously acted as resistance, triggered further buying momentum, lifting price to 0.57716. However, since that peak, there has been less conviction, as price has fluctuated within a tighter range.

Today’s movement has adhered to this pattern. Buyers pushed price close to last week’s high, but there wasn’t enough strength to move decisively beyond it. At the same time, sell-offs have been met with buying interest at the 100-hour moving average, which remains a critical point for market structure. As long as price stays above this level, buyers hold short-term control.

If price rises, resistance exists just below 0.5750, followed by last week’s high at 0.5771. Moving higher than that would reinforce buyer confidence and could encourage more participants to follow the trend. On the other hand, if price fails to stay above the 100-hour moving average, momentum could quickly shift. A drop below would almost certainly bring the 200-hour moving average back into focus, where buyers previously stepped in.

For now, we see buyers maintaining positions, but recent price action suggests that upside movement is meeting resistance. Whether the current range holds or breaks will depend on how market participants react to these well-defined levels.

The Pound Sterling has strengthened as market expectations lean towards a moderate policy-easing cycle from the Bank of England (BoE) this year. Positive economic indicators, such as robust UK Retail Sales, higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index data for January, and strong wage growth, have reduced dovish bets on the BoE.

Traders now foresee two more interest rate cuts from the BoE in 2023, following a recent 25 basis point reduction to 4.5%. Analysts speculate that uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs may compel the BoE to cut rates four times, pushing the forecast for the next cut to May.

Upcoming speeches from BoE policymakers may provide additional insights into monetary policy. The release of PMI data for February showed a slight contraction in manufacturing and expansion in services, with composite PMI at 50.5.

The GBP/USD pair faced resistance near 1.2700 in North American trading, while the US Dollar Index recovered to approximately 106.50 after falling earlier in the day. The US business activity data indicated a slowdown, with the Services PMI dropping to 49.7, marking the first contraction in 25 months.

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have shifted, with 41.1% probability now for rates to remain unchanged. The Manufacturing PMI exceeded estimates, rising to 51.6, reflecting a positive impact from tariffs.

This week, focus will shift to US Durable Goods Orders and Personal Consumption Expenditures data. The Pound Sterling continues to seek support around 1.2333, with resistance levels identified near 1.2770 and 1.2927.

The BoE’s main objective remains price stability, maintaining a 2% inflation target through interest rate adjustments. Higher rates typically strengthen the Pound, while lower rates may hinder its value. Quantitative Easing (QE) is a last-resort strategy, while Quantitative Tightening (QT) can reinforce the Pound’s strength when the economy improves.

The stance taken by the central bank, combined with recent economic figures, has provided traders with fresh insights into what to anticipate in the near term. With better-than-expected economic data, fewer market participants now expect aggressive rate cuts, which in turn bolsters the currency’s position. The steady performance in wage growth and consumer spending suggests that inflationary pressures may remain persistent, making it harder for monetary policymakers to justify rapid easing.

At the moment, markets are leaning towards the assumption that interest rates will come down twice more by year-end. However, some analysts argue that four rate cuts could be necessary should trade-related risks materialise. This uncertainty has prompted many to push back their forecasts for when the next rate adjustment might take place, with May emerging as the likeliest scenario. Investors will be paying close attention to any public comments from central bank officials, looking to gauge whether internal sentiment has shifted in response to the latest economic releases.

The latest purchasing managers’ index figures painted a mixed picture. While the manufacturing sector showed mild contraction, the service sector displayed enough resilience to keep overall activity in expansionary territory. A composite reading just above 50 signals that growth continues, albeit at a sluggish pace. Any deterioration in these figures over the coming months could reinforce the argument for quicker rate reductions.

Turning to currency markets, traders saw the British currency rise towards 1.2700 before sellers pushed it lower. The competing currency recovered after an earlier drop, with the gauge tracking its value bouncing back towards 106.50. The shift in Federal Reserve expectations played a role, as data indicating a slowdown in service sector activity raised concerns over future growth. A reading of 49.7 reflects the first contraction in more than two years, illustrating fading momentum. Despite this, the manufacturing sector showed surprising strength, topping expectations at 51.6, likely supported by changes in trade policy.

Looking ahead, upcoming figures on US durable goods and consumer spending will be closely scrutinised for their influence on market sentiment. The British currency continues to hold above 1.2333, with resistance forming near 1.2770 and 1.2927. These levels provide traders with a reference point when assessing short-term price movements.

At its core, the monetary authority remains committed to keeping inflation around 2%. Adjustments to interest rates serve as the main tool for achieving this objective, though other strategies, such as asset purchases or unwinding previous stimulus measures, remain options under certain conditions. A period of elevated borrowing costs generally lifts the currency, whereas a dovish pivot could limit its upside. If conditions warrant, changes in the approach to liquidity management could also influence market dynamics.

The EURUSD currency pair tested a key support area during the early US session, reaching a low of 1.0455 and bouncing off the 200-hour moving average. This movement occurred within the swing area defined between 1.04529 and 1.04677.

The price rebound from this area has led to increased focus among traders. If the EURUSD remains above this support, attention will shift to recent highs near 1.0505 and 1.0512, as well as levels from late January around 1.0528 to 1.0532. The 100-day moving average is located above these levels at 1.05476.

This area has proved to be a battleground where buyers have stepped in to defend the lower boundary, stopping further weakness for now. The fact that the price held above 1.04529 reinforces its importance. Those who entered long positions at the tested support will be watching nearby resistance levels closely, as failure to push higher could bring renewed selling pressure.

If buying momentum builds, the first set of hurdles sits between 1.0505 and 1.0512, where sellers previously emerged. A further extension towards the 1.0528–1.0532 zone could then become a target, considering the reactions observed there in late January. Beyond that, the 100-day moving average, resting at 1.05476, is another reference point. A move through this area would be a strong indication that buyers are regaining control, shifting the focus toward even higher resistance zones.

On the other hand, if the EURUSD starts losing ground again and slips beneath 1.04529, those who positioned themselves for upside movement will be forced to reconsider. A failure to hold this level could see the pair drift lower, opening the door for a deeper retracement. Sellers may then look for further downside targets, which are yet to come into the picture but could quickly gain relevance if weakness persists.

For now, market attention remains on whether support holds and if buyers can sustain upward pressure. Trading decisions in the coming days will likely revolve around these key levels, with price reactions offering clear indications of sentiment shifts.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is gaining against other currencies, buoyed by expectations of a moderate monetary policy easing cycle from the Bank of England (BoE). Recent UK Retail Sales, a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, and strong wage growth have led traders to adjust their views on the BoE’s stance.

The GBP/USD pair is trading above the mid-1.2600s, approaching a two-month high reached recently. Market analysts project a trading range for GBP/USD between 1.2625 and 1.2680, with potential to reach 1.2730 in the long term.

With the British currency climbing, largely influenced by expectations that the Bank of England will not slash rates aggressively, those dealing in derivatives need to stay aware of the data shaping this sentiment. Retail figures coming in above forecasts indicate that consumers are still spending, which adds to the argument that monetary policy adjustments may not be as rapid as previously thought.

Price pressures in January also surprised slightly with an increase in the consumer index, reinforcing the idea that inflationary risks remain. When adding in the strong pace of wage growth, it makes sense why traders are adjusting their expectations on interest rate cuts. A looser stance from the BoE could still come, but not at the pace markets had initially priced in.

With GBP/USD rising through the middle of the 1.2600s, momentum appears intact. It’s not just about the numbers; positioning and sentiment are playing a part. Analysts tracking patterns suggest the pair could remain within the 1.2625 to 1.2680 zone in the coming sessions, though a push towards 1.2730 is on the radar. For those trading derivatives based on these moves, keeping an eye on upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary will be key in managing positions.

NVIDIA’s (NVDA) anchored VWAP from the February 3 low around $130.24 has drawn algorithmic buying support. This suggests institutional interest as algo-driven buying emerged when prices retreated.

If prices maintain above $130, momentum may shift towards $138-$142, while a drop below this level could lead to focus on lower support areas. With earnings due on February 26, volatility is expected around this key level.

The Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) is a technical metric that provides a benchmark price tied to specific events. Institutions utilise it as a dynamic support or resistance level based on market activity.

This data highlights the relevance of the $130.24 anchored VWAP in assessing trader behaviour. Institutions, driven by algorithmic strategies, appear to be defending this level. The market’s response to this threshold indicates that large players may be accumulating positions here. If this holds, short-term movement towards $138-$142 remains a possibility, a range where prior resistance and profit-taking could emerge. However, if this level fails, the downward move could accelerate as selling pressure gathers momentum.

The upcoming earnings report on February 26 introduces a variable that could amplify fluctuations. Ahead of earnings, price action tends to reflect institutional positioning as funds adjust exposure. If prices remain above the anchored VWAP, prevailing sentiment may favour the long side, reinforcing the idea that buyers are comfortable sustaining elevated valuations. Any dip below would shift attention to the next support layers, potentially bringing a more defensive posture from participants.

We recognise that anchored VWAP serves as a guidepost for decision-making. Since institutions often use it as a reference for execution, its role as a dynamic threshold cannot be overlooked. If algorithms continue to react at this level, the market may test it multiple times before committing to a definitive direction.

As the earnings date draws closer, positioning dynamics could intensify. Any pre-earnings accumulation around this AVWAP might hint at broader confidence in the upcoming report. Conversely, a breakdown would suggest a different narrative is taking hold, potentially tied to shifting expectations on growth or margins.

Considering the weeks ahead, traders should remain attentive to how price interacts with this benchmark. Movements beyond short-term ranges will depend on whether buyers remain committed or if the pressure from sellers begins to outweigh existing demand.

AUD/USD declined from 0.6400 as the US Dollar regained losses, despite weak US S&P Global PMI data for February. The US Dollar Index rose above 106.50, indicating a recovery in the Greenback.

The PMI report revealed overall business activity was still expanding, but the Services PMI fell to 49.7 from 52.9, marking a contraction. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.6.

Attention is turning towards upcoming Australian monthly CPI data, expected to show a rise to 2.6%. This data will impact the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy direction, following a recent rate cut.

Key factors influencing the Australian Dollar (AUD) include interest rates set by the RBA and the price of Iron Ore, Australia’s largest export. The health of the Chinese economy plays a significant role as well, affecting demand for Australian goods.

The Trade Balance also impacts the AUD value; a positive balance strengthens the currency, while a negative balance weakens it. Iron Ore prices and demand for Australian exports are crucial in this context.

Given that the Australian Dollar pulled back after reaching 0.6400, it’s clear that the US Dollar’s strength outweighed weak PMI numbers. The fact that the Services PMI dipped into contraction territory at 49.7 while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 suggests a mixed economic picture in the US. Markets are prioritising the Greenback’s broader recovery rather than fixating on this data point. With the US Dollar Index crossing 106.50, momentum has shifted in favour of the world’s reserve currency, at least for now.

Despite this, attention is already shifting towards inflation data out of Australia. Markets are preparing for a potential increase in monthly CPI to 2.6%, a number that will heavily influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia. After the recent rate cut, any surprise deviation could prompt volatility in the pair. If inflation comes in hotter than anticipated, traders may start questioning whether the RBA will continue down the easing path as expected. On the other hand, a lower reading would reinforce expectations that rates may stay lower for longer.

Beyond inflation, there are other factors we should keep an eye on. The value of Australia’s biggest export, Iron Ore, carries weight in determining the Aussie Dollar’s movements. If prices begin to tumble due to weakening demand, it would pressure the currency further. Given China’s role as Australia’s largest trading partner, the health of its economy remains critical. Should Chinese demand falter, that would weigh on Australia’s exports, further straining the currency.

Trade balance is another piece of this puzzle. When exports exceed imports, it can act as a pillar of support for the currency. Should the trade balance shift negatively, this would have the opposite effect. Since Iron Ore makes up a large portion of export revenues, price fluctuations remain essential to this equation.

For those trading derivatives on this pair, careful monitoring of inflation data, export demand, and global risk sentiment is essential. If the inflation reading exceeds expectations, volatility could pick up as market participants assess the RBA’s potential reaction. Conversely, weaker CPI data would likely bolster the case for a softer monetary policy stance. Keeping an eye on shifts in commodity prices, particularly Iron Ore, will also be necessary to gauge possible moves in the Australian Dollar.

President Emmanuel Macron participated in a G7 discussion with Trump in the Oval Office, convened by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to mark three years since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The leaders collectively aimed to find ways to end the ongoing conflict.

Trump discussed the “Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal,” which seeks to recover U.S. aid and military support while aiding Ukraine’s economy. He anticipates the deal will be signed shortly.

Additionally, Trump is engaged in serious negotiations with Putin regarding the war’s conclusion and potential U.S.-Russia economic agreements, noting that discussions are progressing positively. The previous cost for the U.S. involvement was estimated at $500 billion.

Macron, having spoken in detail about Europe’s position, pressed for a resolution that would not undermine strategic alliances. His emphasis on maintaining stability within the region reflects broader concerns over potential shifts in economic and military commitments. While he acknowledged Trump’s assertion that costs had soared to $500 billion, he did not suggest immediate changes to European contributions.

Justin, having hosted the conversation, addressed the financial risks posed by prolonged military aid. His focus remains on ensuring that support for Ukraine does not disproportionately strain G7 economies. The financial implications are direct—governments weighing their involvement against domestic priorities. He urged leaders to consider both diplomatic channels and fiscal responsibility moving forward.

Trump’s discussions with Putin introduce another variable. If negotiations lead to an economic agreement between the U.S. and Russia, market fluctuations will follow. The probability of easing trade restrictions, adjustments in resource allocations, and shifts in currency demand cannot be ignored. Traders should monitor any announcement regarding these talks, as pricing adjustments will be immediate.

At a broader level, the “Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal” is central to U.S. engagement. The proposal attempts to replenish military reserves while maintaining an economic foothold in Ukraine. If the agreement is finalised soon, resource markets will require close attention. Demand for rare-earth elements influences industries ranging from technology to defence, meaning any contractual obligations will have ripple effects.

For investors assessing the next few weeks, we recommend tracking official statements from Macron, Justin, and Trump. Fluctuations in policy direction will generate movement across multiple sectors. Russian commodity exports, U.S. trade negotiations, and European Union commitments should all be assessed in real time. Those focused on market stability will need to navigate rapid shifts efficiently.