The recent German election initially spurred optimism for the economy, resulting in early gains for the euro and the DAX. However, this positivity has quickly diminished as traders remain cautious about the coalition’s challenges.

The EUR/USD pair increased by 0.2% to 1.0475, down from about 1.0515 earlier. The DAX, which started the day approximately 1% higher, has also lost momentum, currently up by just 0.2%.

As the day progresses, markets are processing the implications of the election results, yet the failure of EUR/USD to maintain above 1.0500 raises concerns among traders.

This initial optimism following Germany’s election was short-lived, highlighting how quickly sentiment can shift when political uncertainty lingers. While the euro and German stocks saw a brief uptick, market participants have already reassessed the situation, leading to a steady retreat. The enthusiasm observed in early trading hours gave way to hesitation, reflecting uncertainty about how the new coalition will function.

The euro’s inability to stay above 1.0500 suggests that traders are hesitant to commit just yet. A 0.2% gain for EUR/USD may seem encouraging at first glance, but the pullback from 1.0515 implies resistance at higher levels. At the same time, the DAX’s loss of momentum further illustrates scepticism, particularly as initial gains of around 1% have been cut to a modest 0.2%.

What we are seeing is a reassessment of expectations. Early reactions priced in a stable transition, yet concerns about coalition negotiations are making traders more measured. Any delay in forming a government could prolong uncertainty, which tends to put pressure on the currency and limit upside potential for equities.

In the coming sessions, price movements are likely to be influenced by political commentary. If coalition talks show signs of strain, the euro could face further selling pressure. Likewise, while the DAX continues to hold a small gain, any suggestion that key economic policies may stall could dampen confidence in German stocks further.

Traders will be examining yield spreads closely. A widening between German and US bonds, particularly if US yields rise again, could draw capital away from the euro. Meanwhile, European Central Bank officials have yet to offer major policy signals in light of these political developments, leaving further uncertainty about the euro’s trajectory.

Despite the recent pullback, caution will be necessary. Short-term rallies remain vulnerable unless buyers can confidently push EUR/USD higher, surpassing resistance levels that have been tested and rejected. Equities, while still supported by broader economic momentum, are susceptible to political headlines that could introduce more volatility.

As coalition talks unfold, the focus will remain on how policymakers navigate their differences. Any progress toward stability could help the euro reclaim lost ground, but until then, traders will be quick to reduce exposure at key technical barriers, limiting upward movement.

Oil prices are attempting to stabilise above $70.00 following a decline on Friday. The potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could enhance global oil supply, possibly leading to lower prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to approximately $70.44 in Monday’s session after reaching a low of $70.00. The outlook for oil remains uncertain as developments in U.S.-Russia discussions on the Ukraine conflict are awaited.

Last week, the U.S. indicated its willingness to continue talks with Russia after discussions in Riyadh, which did not include Ukraine and the EU. President Trump is anticipated to meet with President Putin soon, although Zelenskyy stated that any agreement lacking Ukraine’s consent would be unacceptable.

New developments in these peace talks might create pressures on oil prices. Should sanctions against Russia be lifted, seaborne oil flows could increase.

Attention also turns to OPEC’s upcoming decision on monthly supply changes. Recent reports suggest a delay in OPEC’s planned supply increase.

Brent Crude Oil, used as a global pricing benchmark, is known for its high quality due to its low sulfur content. It accounts for about two-thirds of international oil trade, offering a stable supply from the North Sea.

Brent Crude prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, global economic growth, and geopolitical issues. OPEC’s production decisions are vital, as alterations in quotas can affect pricing significantly.

Weekly oil inventory reports from the API and EIA provide insights into supply and demand shifts. Lower inventory levels may indicate higher demand, while increases could signal oversupply. EIA reports are generally seen as more reliable.

OPEC, which includes twelve oil-producing countries, meets twice a year to set production quotas. Their decisions can lead to fluctuations in Brent Crude prices, with OPEC+ including additional members like Russia.

Oil prices are holding above $70.00 after Friday’s dip, with the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal placing traders in a difficult spot. If an agreement is reached, Russian oil supply could rise, putting downward pressure on prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures moved up to around $70.44 on Monday, after briefly hitting $70.00. The current price situation remains unsettled as market participants wait for developments in U.S.-Russia discussions regarding the war in Ukraine.

Last week, Washington signalled that it was open to further talks with Moscow. This came after a meeting in Riyadh that did not involve Kyiv or the European Union. Donald is expected to convene with Vladimir in the near future. However, Volodymyr has made it clear that Ukraine would reject any deal made without its involvement.

Should negotiations progress, oil prices could come under more strain. If existing penalties on Russian exports are eased, more oil may enter global markets, weighing on valuations.

OPEC’s upcoming decision on supply adjustments is also in focus. Reports suggest the group is considering delaying its planned production increase, which could limit supply growth.

Brent Crude, a key global price benchmark, is valued for its lower sulfur content and consistent production from the North Sea. It sets the price reference for around two-thirds of internationally traded crude oil.

A range of factors move Brent Crude, including supply-demand balances, broader economic trends, and political disruptions. Output decisions from producer organisations carry weight, as any change in quotas can impact availability.

Weekly updates from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provide insights into short-term market fluctuations. If stockpiles decline, demand is likely outpacing supply. In contrast, rising inventory levels could suggest excess production. While both reports inform market positioning, traders typically view the EIA’s data as more dependable.

OPEC’s policies are closely followed, with the group comprising a dozen oil-producing nations. Meetings are held twice per year to set supply limits, but short-term decisions can also be made outside of these sessions. The expanded alliance, which includes Russia, has additional influence over output decisions.

This week brings important inflation data for Australia and Japan, along with the US core PCE index. Markets on Monday are expected to start slowly due to a lack of economic data scheduled for the FX market.

Key releases include US consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index on Tuesday, followed by Australia’s inflation data and Japan’s BoJ Core CPI on Wednesday. The US will also publish new home sales data that day. On Thursday, vital US reports include preliminary GDP, unemployment claims, and durable goods orders, while Friday will feature Tokyo’s Core CPI, Canada’s GDP, and various US releases, including the Core PCE Price Index.

In Australia, the CPI is forecasted to rise to 2.6% from 2.5%, with seasonal price declines expected to dampen monthly figures. Commonwealth government rebates may further ease electricity prices, contributing to expectations of continued disinflation.

For the US, new home sales are expected to decline to 677K from 698K, affected by high interest rates and lower builder confidence. The South faces challenges from recent hurricanes, although a gradual recovery in home sales is anticipated.

US core durable goods orders are projected to rise by 0.4%, with overall durable goods orders expected to increase 2.0%. Recent declines in durable goods orders reflect fluctuations in aircraft orders and potential stockpiling by businesses.

In Japan, the consensus for Tokyo’s core CPI is a drop to 2.3%, attributed to rising fresh food prices and service-sector costs. The Bank of Japan is monitoring price increases, particularly for rice, amid signs of economic recovery.

Canada’s GDP is forecasted to grow by 0.3% m/m and 1.5% annually, driven by consumer spending, although business investment remains weak. The resilient labour market and surprising inflation may influence the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions in March.

In the US, the core PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.3%, while personal income and spending are expected to show slight increases. The sharp drop in retail sales suggests a moderation in demand, but resilient income growth may support spending momentum in the coming months.

The next few days bring key inflation reports and economic figures that could shift market expectations. Australia and Japan will release new inflation readings, while in the US, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, is set for release. These reports will provide a fresh look at how inflationary pressures are developing in different parts of the world, with potential implications for central bank policy.

Monday is expected to be quiet due to a lack of major economic reports influencing currency markets. However, this calm will not last. US consumer confidence figures and the Richmond manufacturing index will be released on Tuesday. The survey-based confidence measure will give insight into how households feel about economic conditions and their future spending plans. Factory activity in the Richmond region will offer a gauge of how manufacturers are handling costs and demand pressures. Both indicators could sway market expectations if they come in much higher or lower than forecasted.

The pace picks up on Wednesday with inflation data from Australia and Japan. The Consumer Price Index in Australia is predicted to tick higher based on year-over-year comparisons. Seasonal price declines, however, may obscure this increase in the latest monthly figures. Government rebates designed to offset electricity costs could also play a role in tempering inflation, contributing to the broader disinflationary trend the country has experienced in recent months.

Additionally, Japan’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be watching the core Tokyo CPI, which often acts as a leading indicator for nationwide inflation. Forecasts point to a slower rate of core inflation this time, even as fresh food and service costs apply upward pressure. The BoJ will be paying close attention to how food prices, particularly rice, influence overall inflation as it considers future policy adjustments.

Meanwhile, in the US, a notable drop in new home sales is anticipated. Analysts expect a decline, with the figure sliding from 698K to 677K, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market. High borrowing costs have made home purchases more difficult, affecting builder confidence. The housing market in the Southern states remains in recovery mode following recent hurricanes, though a slower return to stronger sales activity is expected.

Markets will also digest a range of vital US economic reports on Thursday. Preliminary GDP figures should confirm the strength of US economic growth, while weekly unemployment claims will provide a view of labour market conditions. Additionally, durable goods orders will be closely followed. Core orders, which strip out volatile components like aircraft purchases, are expected to register a small rise of 0.4%. Overall orders should grow at a faster rate of 2.0%, but previous declines reflect shifting patterns in aircraft order volumes and possible inventory stockpiling among businesses.

Attention then turns to Canada, where fresh GDP data is anticipated. The economy is projected to post modest growth of 0.3% on a monthly basis, with annual growth standing at 1.5%. Strength in consumer spending is expected to be the main driver, although investment levels among businesses remain subdued. The Bank of Canada could take note of these figures in shaping its interest rate path, especially with inflation still presenting surprises.

Finally, Friday’s release of the US core PCE price index—widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—could draw the strongest reaction. The index is estimated to increase by 0.3%, signalling that inflation is cooling but not fast enough to prompt a policy shift at this stage. Personal spending and income data, also due that day, could reveal how consumers are adjusting their behaviour in response to economic conditions. A recent sharp pullback in retail sales hints at softer demand, but the resilience of household income growth suggests spending momentum may hold up over time.

With all these reports ahead, there will be no shortage of new information to assess. Policymakers, financial markets, and traders alike will be watching closely for clues about where inflation and economic growth are heading next.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is projected to trade within the range of 0.6355 to 0.6400. In the longer term, it may advance further, with a potential target of 0.6455.

Recently, after reaching a peak of 0.6409, AUD saw a corrective pullback. Today, it is anticipated that AUD will remain within the stated range.

Since early this month, a positive outlook for AUD has been maintained. A breach below 0.6345 could indicate that the Australian Dollar is not prepared to reach the 0.6455 target.

The Australian Dollar has been trending in a relatively narrow range, finding resistance around 0.6400. After hitting 0.6409 and failing to hold, we saw a natural retreat. This suggests that while there’s optimism, the momentum needed to push much higher hasn’t materialised yet.

For traders watching short-term support levels, 0.6345 is the key figure. Dropping below this would raise questions about whether the recent uptrend still has strength. Until that happens, the broader view remains unchanged.

What comes next depends on whether the currency can regain upward traction. If it keeps testing the upper boundary near 0.6400 and eventually forces a breakout, then 0.6455 becomes a realistic goal. Otherwise, continued hesitation near resistance could signal exhaustion.

Price action in the coming days will determine whether staying long remains the best approach or if it’s time to consider alternative positions. A conservative strategy may involve waiting for confirmation: either through stronger momentum above 0.6409 or a breakdown below 0.6345. Until then, we’ll keep an eye on how the range holds and whether sentiment shifts.

Gold remains in a narrow consolidation near its all-time highs, with the market awaiting new drivers for its next movement. The lack of bearish news continues to support upward price action.

Real yields are trending downwards, sustaining positive conditions for gold. A substantial growth scenario or a shift to a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve may prompt corrections.

Recent long-term inflation expectations from the Consumer Sentiment survey have reached a 30-year high, potentially complicating the Fed’s position. Upcoming Non-Farm Payroll and Consumer Price Index reports will be critical for market direction.

Current charts reveal gold’s consolidation near record highs. Buyers may find attractive risk-to-reward scenarios around the 2790 level, while sellers are eyeing a drop below this point to reach the 2600 level.

On the four-hour chart, a defining upward trendline suggests ongoing bullish momentum. Pullbacks may encourage buyers to position for a rally, whereas sellers will anticipate a breach lower to extend their bearish positions.

The one-hour chart illustrates a tight range around recent highs. Buyers are expected to maintain momentum above the 2920 support level, while sellers will seek a break below to facilitate a deeper pullback.

Key reports are forthcoming, including the US Consumer Confidence data, Jobless Claims figures, and PCE statistics, which may further influence market dynamics.

Gold remains in a holding pattern near record levels, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts. The absence of strong downside factors continues to give buyers the upper hand, keeping prices elevated. Unless something shifts in the macroeconomic outlook, near-term movements will likely hinge on technical factors and upcoming economic data.

Declining real yields have reinforced gold’s appeal. With inflation-adjusted returns moving lower, non-yielding assets remain attractive. However, if the Federal Reserve signals a stronger response to inflationary risks, or if economic growth shifts meaningfully, this could pressure gold. Market participants will be closely monitoring how policymakers navigate recent inflation expectations, which have climbed to levels not seen in three decades.

Attention now turns to key employment and inflation figures. The Non-Farm Payroll data will offer insight into labour market conditions, while the latest Consumer Price Index report will help assess inflation pressures. If strong employment data suggests continued economic resilience, or inflation readings exceed estimates, expectations around future Fed moves may adjust. Any increased probability of rate hikes or extended policy tightening could weigh on gold. Conversely, weaker numbers may sustain the current bullish environment.

From a technical standpoint, charts indicate a period of high-level consolidation. The 2790 region continues to act as an initial level where buyers are willing to step in, while sellers are closely watching for a breakdown below this zone to open the path towards 2600.

Shorter timeframes reinforce this view. The four-hour chart maintains an upward trajectory, with pullbacks attracting buying interest. If the structure remains intact, further upside remains on the table. However, if a decisive break lower occurs, sellers could strengthen their position and press prices downward.

Closer analysis of the one-hour timeframe highlights tight price action near recent peaks. For now, buyers are defending the 2920 level, but should this floor give way, further declines could develop. On the other hand, as long as this support holds, upward momentum remains controlled by buying pressure.

Several economic releases are lined up and have the potential to shift the current dynamic. Consumer Confidence readings, labour market indicators, and PCE inflation data will all contribute to shaping expectations in the sessions ahead. If these reports push rate expectations one way or the other, gold’s consolidation may give way to clearer directional movement.

Cocoa prices in London fell over 7.6% on Friday, reaching just above £7,300 per tonne, marking the lowest level since November. Despite this decline, prices remain high, raising concerns regarding demand destruction that could help balance the market.

The CFTC’s weekly positioning data revealed that money managers reduced their net short position in wheat by 21,232 lots to 61,577 lots as of 18 February, with a decrease in gross shorts by 26,733 lots to 132,334 lots. In corn, net longs for managed money increased by 21,144 lots to 353,533 lots during the same reporting week.

Cocoa prices have taken a sharp step down. Even with that hefty drop, they’re still towering over historical averages. This is where the worry comes in. If prices stay steep for too long, fewer buyers might be willing—or even able—to pay up, curbing consumption and offering a natural cooldown for the market. Whether or not that materialises remains to be seen, but it’s something to keep on our radar.

Meanwhile, the latest positioning report from the CFTC sheds light on how traders are adjusting. Speculators pulled back from their short bets in wheat in good measure. We saw a considerable dip in total short positions, which means fewer traders are betting on prices to tumble further. When short positions get trimmed like this, it suggests sentiment is shifting—perhaps traders think wheat has already fallen far enough or that near-term conditions are less bearish than before.

In corn, there was an expansion in bullish bets. The increase in net longs indicates more traders are optimistic about the direction of prices. Whether this enthusiasm is rooted in supply concerns, demand strength, or broader market factors is something we’ll continue watching closely.

These positioning shifts aren’t just numbers on a page—they give us clues about changing trader opinions. When investors unwind short bets in one market while boosting long positions in another, it often hints at new convictions forming. This kind of repositioning can create shifts in liquidity and price momentum.

For those trading derivatives, this means the next few weeks could require extra attention to positioning dynamics. If fresh data supports the moves we’ve seen in wheat and corn, momentum might continue. But if market conditions change again, positioning could flip just as quickly. Keeping an eye on money flows will be just as important as tracking fundamental factors.

German stocks are performing well at the open, influenced by the weekend’s election results. The Eurostoxx index has decreased by 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX has increased by 0.5%.

The broader market remains mixed, partly due to Friday’s major sell-off on Wall Street. Although German shares rose following the election, this has not uplifted regional equities overall. S&P 500 futures have moderated gains, currently rising by 0.3%. Nvidia’s earnings report later in the week is anticipated to impact market sentiment.

European markets are attempting to find direction after the weekend’s political developments. This morning, Germany’s DAX is showing strength, up by 0.5%, while broader European indices remain under slight pressure. The Eurostoxx index has slipped 0.2%, reflecting the uneven sentiment across the region.

The mixed start follows a turbulent end to last week. Wall Street suffered a steep decline on Friday, sending ripples through global markets. While German stocks have been buoyed by local election results, this hasn’t provided enough momentum to lift equities across Europe. Investors appear hesitant, assessing whether this move in Germany signals a lasting trend or merely a short-term reaction.

Beyond politics, corporate earnings remain at the forefront of market focus. This week, attention is shifting to Nvidia’s upcoming report, which has the potential to influence broader sentiment. The company’s results could determine whether the recent wave of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence can continue driving buying interest in equities. For now, futures on the S&P 500 have edged up 0.3%, suggesting a mild rebound.

Despite today’s gains in German stocks, underlying questions persist. Traders are weighing the impact of shifting political dynamics against broader macroeconomic pressures. The divergence between Germany’s market performance and the rest of Europe highlights the ongoing push and pull between domestic factors and larger global trends. Investors should remain attentive to how these elements develop in the days ahead.

Today features a light calendar, with the German IFO index being the only notable release. This index is often associated with the German Composite PMI, suggesting its impact may be limited.

Former President Trump is scheduled to speak at 19:00 GMT during a press conference with President Macron. He will also participate in a G7 leaders call at 13:00 GMT.

Central bank speakers include BoE’s Lombardelli at 09:00 GMT and Fed’s Logan at 09:20 GMT. BoE’s Ramsden and BoC’s Gravelle will speak at 13:15 GMT, followed by Fed’s Barr at 16:45 GMT and BoE’s Dhingra at 18:00 GMT.

The limited number of scheduled events today means that volatility may remain muted unless unexpected headlines emerge. The German IFO index tends to track the broader German Composite PMI relatively closely. Given that the latter has already been released, the potential for fresh surprises appears low. However, if the index deviates meaningfully from expectations, it could still prompt a response.

Attention will also be on Donald, who is set to join Emmanuel for a press conference this evening. This comes after a G7 call earlier in the day, which may provide insight into economic or geopolitical priorities. While these events are not typically market-moving on their own, any remarks regarding trade, tariffs, or broader policy shifts could influence sentiment.

Among central bank officials speaking today, Megan will be the first to take the stage in the morning. This will be followed shortly by Lorie, whose comments may be watched for any mention of balance sheet adjustments. Later, Dave and Toni will have an opportunity to address questions on monetary policy before Michael and Swati wrap up the day with their remarks. The schedule presents multiple chances for policymakers to clarify their stance, particularly given recent discussions around inflation trends and interest rates.

Looking ahead, price movements are likely to be shaped by how these scheduled updates interact with existing market positioning. With relatively few major data releases today, traders may focus more on broader themes rather than reacting to individual statements. However, any remarks that unexpectedly shift rate expectations or policy outlooks could still lead to adjustments.

EUR/USD tested lows at 1.0140 before rebounding, as reported by FX analysts. The currency has stabilised above the 50-day moving average, suggesting regained upward momentum.

The near-term support is identified around 1.0400 to 1.0385. A defence of this level may lead to an upward bounce towards projected levels of 1.0580 and the December high of 1.0630, with potential for a larger upward movement if that barrier is surpassed.

This recent shift in direction indicates a possible recovery phase, which we can see reflected in the price action. The fact that it held above the 50-day average is a positive sign, as it suggests buyers are willing to step in at these lower levels. In technical terms, this kind of support helps reaffirm confidence, reducing immediate downside risks.

If the 1.0400 to 1.0385 range is successfully maintained, it could act as a platform for a push higher. A break above the 1.0580 region would reinforce that strength, possibly setting the stage for a test of December’s peak at 1.0630. Should that level give way, stronger bullish momentum may follow, creating space for a broader advance. Traders should remain attentive to this range, as any failure to hold could shift attention back towards recent lows.

Simultaneously, market sentiment is also being influenced by developments surrounding rate expectations. Carol, who has been analysing central bank policy adjustments, notes that any further divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on rate outlooks could play a part in shaping price action. While inflation-related announcements remain in focus, reactions to those numbers could dictate near-term trends.

Tim, looking at broader macroeconomic conditions, highlights how external factors, including geopolitical influences, could also come into play. If uncertainty increases, there might be added volatility in the pair. We should also watch for bond market movements, as any reaction there could reflect shifting attitudes towards risk exposure.

For traders using derivatives, especially those employing options or futures contracts, staying alert to breakout levels seems prudent. Price action around these support and resistance levels may provide key directional signals, helping refine short-term positioning. If the current range holds, managing exposure accordingly might be worth considering, particularly with event-driven catalysts on the horizon.

Eurostoxx futures have risen by 0.4% in early trading across Europe. German stocks are expected to perform well, with DAX futures increasing by 0.9%, while UK FTSE futures remain unchanged.

The recent election result has had a positive effect on the euro, which is currently trading at 1.0512 against the US dollar, up 0.5% for the day. US futures are also showing gains after a notable selloff on Friday, with S&P 500 futures climbing 0.5%.

Market attention is focused on Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, which is likely to have an impact on Wall Street.

European markets have opened with moderate gains, with traders reacting to political developments and shifting expectations around monetary policy. The steady movement in UK stocks suggests a wait-and-see approach, while stronger performances in Germany reflect optimism regarding industrial growth.

Currency markets are seeing renewed confidence in the euro, supported by what appears to be a reassessment of economic stability following the election outcome. A half-percent rise against the dollar indicates buying interest, possibly tied to expectations that policymakers in the eurozone may avoid a deeper slowdown. The dollar remains under scrutiny, particularly as investors anticipate the next round of US data releases.

Meanwhile, in the US, equity futures are attempting to recover from Friday’s downturn. There has been a return of buyers at lower levels following the sharp decline, with S&P 500 futures edging higher. This bounce suggests traders are recalibrating positions ahead of key corporate updates.

Much of the focus remains on Nvidia, whose earnings report has the potential to influence sentiment across the tech sector. After months of volatility, expectations are building around the company’s ability to support market valuations. Should results exceed forecasts, there could be renewed interest in chipmakers broadly, lifting sentiment in growth stocks. However, any misstep would likely reinforce concerns over stretched valuations.

With key macroeconomic and earnings announcements in the days ahead, volatility could remain elevated. Investors will be monitoring shifts in positioning across asset classes, particularly given the backdrop of recent price swings.