Silver price (XAG/USD) is around $32.70 during Asian trading hours on Monday, supported by a weakening US Dollar. Concerns regarding US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans may enhance safe-haven flows, contributing to the rise in Silver’s price.

The market outlook remains bullish, with prices holding above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 64.40, indicating potential upward movement.

Key resistance lies between $33.35 and $33.40. If prices consistently trade above this range, targets include $34.55 and potentially $34.87.

Initial support is at $31.52, with additional support levels at $30.90 and $30.70.

Prices are influenced by numerous factors, including geopolitical tensions and economic conditions in major markets. Silver’s industrial applications also significantly affect demand—its use in electronics and solar energy is notable.

Silver typically moves in tandem with Gold prices, mirroring their safe-haven asset status. Analysts may look at the Gold/Silver ratio to assess their relative valuations, guiding potential investment decisions.

With Silver holding firm at $32.70 in early Asian trade, the weakening US Dollar appears to be keeping prices elevated. Market sentiment remains positive, largely due to persisting concerns over Donald Trump’s trade policies, which may drive further safe-haven demand. These tariff-related anxieties could maintain an environment where precious metals attract cautious investors looking to hedge against economic risk.

Technical indicators continue to reflect strength. With prices holding above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, short-term momentum appears favourable. The RSI hovering around 64.40 suggests there may still be room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge. However, traders should watch for any rapid shifts in momentum.

For those focusing on key price levels, resistance is marked near $33.35–$33.40. If Silver pushes past this, there is scope for a move towards $34.55, with an extended target around $34.87. A decisive break above these levels would suggest continued buying interest, further reinforcing the current bullish sentiment.

On the downside, initial support is found at $31.52, while stronger buying support exists around $30.90 and $30.70. Should prices retreat, these levels may attract renewed interest from dip buyers looking to capitalise on lower entries.

Beyond technicals, external market forces remain influential. Geopolitical tensions, particularly trade uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions in top economies, could dictate price direction. Additionally, industrial demand remains a significant factor, with Silver playing a key role in technology and renewable energy sectors, such as electronics and solar panels.

There is also the broader relationship with Gold to consider. Historically, Silver often tracks movements in Gold, given their perceived safe-haven attributes. The Gold/Silver ratio can offer insights into valuation trends—if the ratio shifts considerably, it may provide clues about potential reversals or momentum changes in either metal.

With the current trajectory still leaning upwards, traders should stay alert to technical signals and macroeconomic developments. Reaction to tariff discussions, fluctuations in the US Dollar, and broader commodity movements will be particularly important in shaping short-term price action.

Gold prices in India rose on Monday, with the price per gram reaching 8,197.41 Indian Rupees (INR), up from 8,175.44 INR on Friday. For tola, the cost increased to 95,609.34 INR, compared to 95,350.84 INR previously.

The prices for gold in different units are as follows: 1 gram at 8,197.41 INR, 10 grams at 81,970.98 INR, and a troy ounce at 254,976.20 INR. These figures reflect adaptations of international prices to local measurements.

Central banks remain the largest holders of gold, accumulating 1,136 tonnes worth approximately $70 billion in 2022. Price fluctuations depend on various factors, including geopolitical instability and interest rate changes.

Gold has climbed again, edging upwards from Friday’s levels, setting a new benchmark for those tracking market movement. A gram now commands 8,197.41 INR, a gain from 8,175.44 INR at the week’s close. Meanwhile, the price per tola has moved to 95,609.34 INR, reflecting a broader upward shift.

Breaking these figures down, 10 grams now stand at 81,970.98 INR, while a troy ounce sits at 254,976.20 INR. These conversions serve as a guide for pricing adjustments, particularly for traders balancing between international and domestic rates.

Central banks continue to exert a wide influence, having collectively acquired 1,136 tonnes in 2022, valued around $70 billion. Their role remains dominant as they add further reserves, demonstrating sustained confidence in gold as a safeguard.

Price movement stems from a mix of factors, notably geopolitical events and changes in interest rates. With central banks maintaining their purchases and rates still shaping financial decisions, fluctuations are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. For traders, these elements must be factored into their strategies, as both short-term adjustments and long-term positioning will be shaped by how these forces develop in the coming weeks.

New Zealand reported a year-on-year increase in credit card spending of 1.3% for January, an improvement from the previous decline of 1.3%.

The New Zealand dollar is rising against various currencies today, including the Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, and Canadian dollar.

Currently, the NZD/USD exchange rate is not influenced by local data but rather by the weakness of the US dollar. The USD/JPY rate remains above 149.00, despite a brief drop below this level.

This uptick in credit card spending suggests a slight boost in consumer activity compared to last year, a reversal from the decline previously seen. Household financial behaviour appears to be shifting, and while the increase is not particularly large, it indicates that spending is moving in a more positive direction.

The New Zealand dollar is gaining value across multiple pairs, showing broad strength against the Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, and Canadian dollar. This reflects a mix of domestic conditions and external influences, but what stands out is the movement of NZD/USD. The pair’s rise is not coming from local data or domestic drivers but rather from a weaker US dollar. This distinction is worth noting, especially for those who track the relationship between economic indicators and currency movements.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is still holding above 149.00, though it briefly slipped beneath this mark. That momentary dip suggests some selling pressure, but it was not enough to take it lower for a sustained period. Considering past trends, it’s worth watching whether this level continues to hold or if a deeper pullback develops over time.

Understanding these shifts is more than just recognising the numbers. It’s about seeing where the pressure is coming from and how the reactions play out across different assets. The New Zealand dollar’s current strength does not appear to be driven by domestic factors, which means external conditions are having a greater say in its performance. Given that, closely watching broader currency dynamics may offer a more accurate view of where movements are heading.

As for USD/JPY, keeping an eye on how it behaves near this level is essential. If it manages to stay above 149.00, that could reinforce stability, but a decisive move lower might suggest otherwise. Watching how other assets respond could provide further confirmation. The next few weeks will likely offer more clarity, particularly as new economic data emerges and external conditions develop further.

Gold prices in Malaysia increased on Monday. The price for gold reached 415.96 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up from MYR 414.97 on Friday.

The cost of gold per tola also rose to MYR 4,851.73 compared to MYR 4,840.13 on the previous day.

The prices for gold based on different units are as follows: 1 gram at MYR 415.96, 10 grams at MYR 4,159.64, tola at MYR 4,851.73, and troy ounce at MYR 12,938.04.

Factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the performance of the US Dollar. Central banks, particularly those in emerging economies, are increasing their gold reserves to support currencies and combat economic uncertainty.

Gold prices in Malaysia have gone up again, with a slight but noticeable increase compared to the end of last week. A gram now costs MYR 415.96, which is more than Friday’s MYR 414.97. The price for a tola, often preferred in South Asian and Middle Eastern markets, moved up by over MYR 11.

This is not happening in isolation. Many things shape how gold is valued, and we have been seeing a steady influence from global instability, shifting interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. When interest rates rise, holding gold becomes less attractive since it does not provide income like bonds do. However, when major currencies fluctuate or stocks perform poorly, many investors shift towards gold as a safer place for their money.

On top of that, central banks continue adding to their gold reserves. In emerging markets, the logic is straightforward: securing more of the metal helps strengthen their currencies and provides insurance against unpredictable economic turns. With ongoing concerns around inflation and economic slowdowns in different regions, we have observed steady demand coming from these banks.

Traders dealing with gold derivatives should keep an eye on upcoming announcements from major monetary institutions. Any indications of interest rate shifts—particularly from the US Federal Reserve—will likely cause reactions in the market. If inflation remains persistent or central banks signal slow rate cuts, gold could hold its appeal. Conversely, if borrowing costs drop quickly, some traders may look elsewhere for better returns.

Beyond macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions have added reasons for traders to consider hedging their positions. When uncertainty in global politics spikes, gold has historically been the asset investors turn towards. Pay attention to developments across major economies, as any worsening conflicts or economic instability could sustain or even push prices higher.

With volatility present in various markets, short-term price swings remain possible. Monitoring demand from institutional buyers, global economic trends, and shifts in the Dollar’s strength will be necessary in the weeks ahead.

Goldman Sachs supports an overweight position on China’s A-shares and H-shares, attributing this to AI-driven growth and liquidity support. Analysts predict that H-shares will gain from AI advancements, while A-shares have potential for improvement.

An increase in global fund exposure to China is observed, with H-shares likely remaining a preferred option. However, A-shares might experience better momentum shortly.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that A-shares will outperform H-shares over the next three months. The premium of A-shares over H-shares has decreased from 34% to 14% in three months, suggesting around 10% upside if it returns to the average of the past year.

Goldman Sachs has expressed confidence in the prospects of both A-shares and H-shares, highlighting artificial intelligence as a key driver for growth alongside supportive liquidity conditions. This view is supported by the observation that international funds are slowly increasing their exposure to Chinese equities. Within this, H-shares appear to remain the preferred route for many investors, yet recent trends suggest that A-shares could gather stronger momentum in the near future.

Over recent months, there has been a narrowing gap between A-share and H-share valuations. The premium that A-shares held over their offshore counterparts has tightened from 34% to 14%, a compression that might indicate further room for upside if historical price relationships are any guide. Should this trend revert to its one-year average, A-shares could still see an additional 10% advance from current levels.

With these shifting dynamics in valuation spreads and investor positioning, questions naturally arise about how market participants should navigate exposure over the coming weeks. The expectation remains that domestically traded equities will outperform their Hong Kong-listed counterparts over the next three months. If this forecast holds, traders who anticipate relative strength in A-shares may look towards vehicles that capitalise on the potential for price recovery.

At the same time, the upward move in global funds allocating capital towards China introduces another factor to consider. If this flow persists, it could provide a reinforcing effect for valuations, particularly for the segment of the market that has lagged in recent months. The relative appeal of A-shares could continue to improve as a result, particularly if liquidity conditions remain constructive and domestic momentum strengthens.

Expectations for artificial intelligence remain central to this outlook, benefiting both classes of shares, though not necessarily to the same degree. If H-shares remain the more accessible option for foreign investors seeking exposure to AI-related themes, those looking for stronger near-term movement may find A-shares more promising—especially given the valuation reset that has already taken place.

Over the coming weeks, close attention is required as valuations rebalance. With momentum shifting, a reassessment of positioning may be warranted to capture the potential discrepancies in pricing.

USD/CAD fell below 1.4200, trading around 1.4190 due to a weakening US Dollar influenced by disappointing economic data. The US Dollar Index dipped near 106.00, with Treasury yields at 4.19% and 4.43% for 2- and 10-year bonds, respectively.

In Canada, mixed economic results, including a 0.4% decline in Retail Sales, signal a slowdown in consumer spending. Elevated inflation pressures, seen in rising industrial producer prices, complicate the Bank of Canada’s policy decisions.

Weaker crude oil prices may challenge the CAD, as Canada is a major oil exporter. Expectations for resumed oil exports from Kurdistan’s fields apply additional downward pressure.

The US Dollar has been on the back foot, as weaker-than-expected economic data raises doubts about the strength of the American economy. A drop below 1.4200 in USD/CAD reflects the broader softness, with the Dollar Index slipping towards 106.00. At the same time, US Treasury yields remain elevated but have eased slightly, with 2-year yields at 4.19% and 10-year yields at 4.43%. This suggests bond markets are recalibrating expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

On the Canadian front, data paints a mixed picture. The 0.4% decline in Retail Sales points to fading consumer demand, which could weigh on overall economic growth. However, price pressures persist, particularly in industrial producer prices, making the Bank of Canada’s job more complex. With inflation still a concern, there’s uncertainty about how policymakers will respond in the coming months.

Oil is another factor playing into the currency’s movement. Canada’s reliance on crude means lower prices often translate into a weaker CAD. With the possibility of oil exports resuming from Kurdistan, global supply could rise, keeping prices from moving higher. If this plays out, it may add further downside for the Canadian currency.

For those trading derivatives, the interaction between these elements needs close monitoring. A softening US Dollar, sticky inflation, and uncertainty surrounding energy prices create conditions where volatility could increase. If economic data continues to disappoint in the US, expectations around rate cuts might intensify, pulling yields lower. That, in turn, could push USD/CAD further down, provided Canadian data doesn’t surprise on the weaker side.

Equally, the Bank of Canada’s stance will determine if CAD can hold its ground. If policymakers signal they are still concerned about inflation despite softer demand, the currency could find support. However, if economic growth slows further, and rate expectations shift, that support might weaken. In either case, oil will remain a central factor. If prices find stability or increase, CAD could benefit, but prolonged weakness in crude could act as a headwind.

Watching how these narratives unfold will be key. Treasury yields, policy decisions, and commodity prices are all in flux, which means price swings could be sharper than usual in the coming weeks. Keeping an eye on upcoming economic releases will be important, as they will help determine the next move in USD/CAD and broader market sentiment.

UBS forecasts mid-teen returns for global AI stocks by 2025, driven by robust investment and growing monetisation trends, despite potential market fluctuations from tariffs and export controls. The prediction follows China’s launch of DeepSeek AI, which briefly impacted Big Tech stocks, including Nvidia.

Lenovo’s revenue increased by 20%, attributed to demand for AI computing, indicating the economic impact of AI. UBS anticipates global AI spending, excluding China, will reach $500 billion by 2026, with AI-related revenues potentially matching this figure for a $1 trillion demand opportunity.

By 2026, UBS projects global AI operating profits at $350 billion, based on a margin estimate of 35%. This is lower than the margins anticipated for cloud platforms and AI semiconductor firms.

Applying a 30x multiple to the estimated operating profits for 2026 values the AI sector at $10.5 trillion by the end of 2025, up from a current market cap of $9 trillion. While market conditions may fluctuate due to trade policy uncertainty, UBS believes that AI’s long-term fundamentals are strong.

The expectation of mid-teen returns from AI stocks over the next few years reflects the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence across industries. The rapid jump in Lenovo’s revenue offers clear evidence that AI-related investments are translating into real financial outcomes. A 20% rise in sales, propelled by demand for AI computing, shows enterprises are allocating greater resources toward AI-driven infrastructure. We see this as a sign that businesses are preparing for a future where AI is deeply integrated into operations.

The projected $500 billion in AI spending, excluding China, highlights how quickly companies outside that market are directing funds into artificial intelligence. At the same time, the chance for AI-linked revenue to reach the same level implies a robust, self-sustaining economic loop. The result is an addressable opportunity of $1 trillion, reinforcing the idea that capital continues to line up behind AI research, development, and deployment. Firms positioned in leading segments, particularly AI semiconductors and cloud-based AI services, may benefit from this growing commitment.

Operating profits in the AI sector, estimated at $350 billion by 2026, point to certain financial realities. The expectation of a 35% margin is compelling, although it sits below the levels projected for semiconductor providers and cloud platforms. This gap suggests that competition and cost structures of AI services could weigh on profitability compared to the hardware and cloud computing markets. However, overall profit growth remains strong enough to sustain market expansion, with a possible market capitalisation of $10.5 trillion by the end of 2025.

While AI’s long-term potential remains firmly intact, possible disruptions from trade regulations and policy shifts cannot be ignored. Market reactions to China’s launch of DeepSeek AI, which briefly affected Nvidia and other large technology firms, serve as a reminder of this. Structural AI growth trends remain in place, but short-term movement may introduce volatility. Tighter export controls, tariffs, or geopolitical developments could create temporary setbacks. Yet, with fundamentals in place, these fluctuations may do little to change broader AI-sector momentum.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rose to approximately $70.30 per barrel during Asian trading on Monday. However, prices faced pressure due to anticipated exports resuming from Kurdistan’s oilfields.

An official from Iraq’s Oil ministry stated plans to export 185,000 barrels per day via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have progressed, with all preparations completed. Traders are also monitoring developments regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is in its fourth year.

A senior Russian diplomat mentioned meetings between Russian and US teams to discuss improving relations. This follows a push from US leadership to initiate dialogue with Russia.

Potential changes in US trade policy are under scrutiny as recent tariff announcements could affect crude oil prices. President Trump signed a memorandum to restrict Chinese investments in key sectors.

Market participants await the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday, a key inflation measure affecting future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.

The rise in WTI crude oil prices to approximately $70.30 per barrel during Asian trading reflects a mix of bullish sentiment and external pressures. However, gains are being challenged by expectations that oil exports from Kurdistan will resume.

Hassan at Iraq’s Oil Ministry has confirmed that the country is prepared to export 185,000 barrels per day through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. The infrastructure is ready, paperwork is in order, and it now seems to be a matter of time before flows restart. For traders, this introduction of additional supply could limit upward price movement, especially if global demand remains steady.

Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict in Eastern Europe remains something we cannot ignore. It has influenced supply chains and driven market volatility since it first began, and with the conflict now in its fourth year, traders are still factoring in potential disruptions. Dmitry, a senior Russian diplomat, has acknowledged that officials from Washington and Moscow have been meeting to discuss ways to mend relations. This development comes amid US efforts to restart diplomatic discussions, but traders will be looking for concrete agreements that could influence sanctions or energy policies.

Another factor that could sway the market is the shifting trade policy in the US. Recent decisions on tariffs may carry consequences for crude oil demand, particularly if they affect industrial production or consumer spending down the line. Donald has signed a memorandum with the goal of limiting Chinese investments in certain sectors deemed critical to US interests. Should tensions escalate, we may see further reaction in commodity markets, particularly those sensitive to global trade dynamics.

Later this week, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, and its results will be key in shaping expectations for future interest rate moves. If inflation remains high, we could see further rate hikes from policymakers, which may impact energy prices by altering demand expectations. Those trading derivatives will want to be mindful, particularly as shifts in interest rate projections can quickly filter through to broader market sentiment.

The US dollar’s previous uptrend appears to have ended, as indicated by a break in its steep uptrend line. Caution is advised, as this may not necessarily lead to a downtrend.

While there is speculation that the dollar will fluctuate before determining its next direction, current indicators suggest it is losing strength. Historical data shows that during the first year of Trump’s presidency, the US dollar experienced a downtrend, raising questions about future performance.

This shift in strength from the world’s most traded currency presents a range of possibilities across financial markets. With the break in the uptrend, traders should be prepared for increased volatility, as uncertainty creates an environment where sharp moves are more likely. While short-term fluctuations are unavoidable, the broader concern lies in whether a sustained shift in momentum is beginning to take hold.

Looking back at past trends, there is a clear precedent for weakness under a new presidential term. In Trump’s first year, the dollar moved lower despite initial expectations that pro-growth policies would support it. This time, factors at play are different, but the parallels cannot be ignored. Inflation remains a key concern, and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates will dictate movements. With rate increases already slowing, the advantage that once supported the currency’s climb may be fading. The question is whether sellers will capitalise on this shift or if markets have already adjusted expectations accordingly.

Beyond the direct impact on currency pairs, weaker performance in the US dollar affects multiple asset classes. Commodities tend to benefit when the greenback declines, as prices adjust to reflect a change in purchasing power. Equities, particularly those with international exposure, often react in complex ways, depending on how earnings expectations shift. Fixed-income markets factor in numerous variables, but shifts in dollar strength play a visible role—especially with implications for emerging markets, where borrowing costs move with expectations of US monetary policy.

The weeks ahead will test market assumptions. A temporary pause does not necessarily guarantee a full reversal, but traders should be wary of assuming prior trends will resume without resistance. Price action will reveal whether the current weakness is simply a correction or if a longer-lasting change is unfolding. With technical indicators confirming the break in momentum, the focus now turns to whether fundamental shifts reinforce what charts are beginning to suggest.

NZD/USD has seen gains, trading around 0.5750 after a 0.9% increase in Retail Sales for Q4 2024, the highest growth in three years. This rise surpasses the prior flat reading and forecasts of 0.6%.

The Chinese government released its annual policy statement focusing on rural reforms, which may support the New Zealand economy, given China’s role as a major trading partner. However, potential limitations on Chinese investments in the US may cap NZD gains.

The US Dollar Index is below 106.50, impacted by the recent drop in the Composite PMI to 50.4 in February. Meanwhile, Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.6, contrasting with a decline in Services PMI to 49.7.

Retail Sales in New Zealand have surged by 0.9% for the final quarter of 2024, marking the strongest expansion in three years. This figure easily beats both the prior stagnant reading and the anticipated 0.6% increase. Such an improvement indicates healthier consumer spending, which often points to rising confidence among households. Though this data suggests a positive trend, it is worth considering whether this momentum can be sustained in the coming quarters.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s latest economic policy statement places rural reforms at the forefront. With China holding a vital position as one of New Zealand’s largest trade allies, this move could bolster demand for exports. Nonetheless, external risks remain. If Chinese investment faces tighter restrictions in the US, overall financial flows may weaken, potentially restraining gains elsewhere.

On the US side, the Dollar Index sits below 106.50, after a drop in Composite PMI to 50.4 in February. A closer look at sector-specific figures shows that while Manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.6, the Services PMI slipped to 49.7. This divergence suggests an ongoing shift in economic activity, with services facing more pressure. For those watching rate expectations, signs of softness in services may fuel discussions about future monetary adjustments.

Taken together, improving retail conditions in New Zealand, changing Chinese policies, and mixed signals from the US economy add layers of complexity to market positioning. A careful eye on follow-up data will be key, particularly for gauging whether economic momentum continues or fades.