This week, gold’s upward momentum has slowed as traders wait for the US CPI data. A weak Non-Farm Payroll report led to lower interest rate expectations, allowing gold to rise as real yields fell. The upcoming CPI data might impact future rate cuts, with lower numbers supporting dovish bets and possibly indicating a third cut by the year-end. On the flip side, higher CPI numbers could lead to a hawkish shift, affecting gold’s value. In a broader view, gold is likely to maintain an upward trend as real yields decrease alongside the Federal Reserve easing. However, any hawkish changes in interest rate expectations may cause short-term corrections. On the daily chart, gold is nearing a resistance level of around 3,438 after rebounding near the 3,245 support level. Sellers could enter at this resistance, while buyers hope for a breakout to reach a new all-time high.

Gold Price Charts

The 4-hour chart shows that bullish momentum is fading without clear trading levels. The 1-hour chart reveals a slight upward trendline that supports the bullish momentum. Buyers will likely use this trendline to aim for resistance, while sellers will target a break below it to secure a pullback to the 3,350 level. Gold’s recent rise has started to lose steam as we shift focus to next week’s important US CPI inflation data. The rally began after last week’s weak Non-Farm Payrolls report, which indicated that the US economy added only 110,000 jobs in July, far below expectations. This disappointing job report increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. More Fed officials have begun to indicate they are open to rate cuts since that report. Market pricing now shows a 75% chance of a rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from about 40% before the jobs data. A weak inflation report next week could solidify that September cut. If the CPI data comes in lower than expected, markets will likely reinforce their bets on lower rates, which would be good for gold. However, if inflation rates are higher than anticipated, it could lead to a quick shift, negatively impacting gold in the short term. This scenario would likely keep prices within a recent range.

Market Insights

In the broader context, gold’s overall trend should remain upward. The Fed is expected to continue its easing cycle through the end of 2025, which should keep real yields under pressure. However, any unexpected hawkish news could lead to temporary pullbacks. In the daily chart, we see gold is inching toward a resistance level around $3,438. This level is just above the previous all-time high reached in May 2025, making it an important threshold. Sellers are likely to monitor this area to enter new positions, while buyers will look for a clear breakout. In the very short term, upward momentum appears weak, as if it’s climbing with inertia. A minor upward trendline is currently supporting the price on the one-hour chart. If that trendline breaks, sellers may aim for a quick drop back toward the $3,350 level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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European stocks opened cautiously as the week comes to an end. Key indexes had mixed results: the Eurostoxx was steady, Germany’s DAX fell by 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 rose by 0.2%. In the UK, the FTSE climbed by 0.1%. Spain’s IBEX and Italy’s FTSE MIB also saw gains, rising by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. This modest performance follows Wall Street’s mixed outcomes, where tech stocks provided some support.

Optimism For S&P 500 Futures

Despite the mixed signals, European stocks had a good week, recovering some losses from the previous week. In the US, S&P 500 futures reflect slight optimism, showing a 0.2% increase. Traders are closely watching news regarding gold tariffs as the day progresses. The mixed atmosphere in European markets indicates that traders are cautious and hesitant, avoiding significant risks before the weekend. This wariness is largely due to unclear news on global gold tariffs. This indecision is evident in low trading volumes, which have dropped nearly 15% from last month’s daily average. With the Euro STOXX Volatility Index (VSTOXX) at a calm 19.2, there is a chance for traders who anticipate market movements. The current low implied volatility makes options strategies, like straddles on the DAX or CAC 40, appealing for a potential increase in volatility. We believe the market may be underestimating the risk of an unexpected announcement regarding tariffs next week.

Inflation Concerns And ECB Response

This caution follows the July inflation report for the Eurozone, which showed core inflation stubbornly holding at 3.1%. This complicates the European Central Bank’s (ECB) strategy. While the ECB is signaling a data-driven pause, ongoing inflation limits their ability to support markets if trade tensions intensify. Currently, the swaps market estimates a 35% chance for one last rate hike by October, up from 20% two weeks ago. We’ve seen similar volatility driven by headlines during trade disputes in 2018 and 2019, where indexes could swing significantly on a single announcement. For traders with long equity positions, buying protective puts on broad indexes like the Eurostoxx 50 is a cost-effective way to hedge against a sudden downturn. Recent buying may be shaky if geopolitical news turns negative. The DAX’s specific weakness, due to its focus on exporters, highlights the most significant risk areas. A wise approach could involve pairing trades—going long on a more domestically focused index like Spain’s IBEX while shorting the DAX. This strategy allows traders to capture relative performance while reducing some broader market risks tied to tariff outcomes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Switzerland’s consumer sentiment changed little in July, standing at -32.8, just down from -32.2 in June. The forecast for the third quarter is -28, which is better than the -39 recorded in the second quarter. Recent events, including a decision on tariffs for Swiss gold, have raised concerns. This could also affect the pharmaceutical industry in the future.

The Impact On Consumer Sentiment

The July consumer sentiment figure of -32.8 shows Swiss households are quite pessimistic. Although the change from last month is small, it confirms a trend of weak confidence that has been ongoing. This consistent negativity is likely to dampen retail spending in the weeks ahead. This weak data suggests that the Swiss National Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates. With Swiss inflation at 1.3% as of July 2025, the central bank is more concerned about economic weakness rather than rising prices. This is a shift from the aggressive rate hikes we saw in 2023 when inflation was a major worry. This economic situation will likely put pressure on the Swiss Franc. The EUR/CHF exchange rate has already risen from 0.96 early in the year to around 0.9850 recently. Traders might want to consider strategies that benefit from a weaker Franc, such as buying call options on the EUR/CHF pair. In terms of stocks, the Swiss Market Index (SMI) has struggled, dropping nearly 4% since early June 2025. This decline reflects the poor consumer mood and the new worries about trade. The market is anxious that the gold tariffs may influence other key industries.

Concerns Over The Pharmaceutical Sector

The potential impact on the pharmaceutical sector is particularly concerning for the Swiss market. It’s important to note that just two companies, Novartis and Roche, make up over 30% of the SMI. If their big export business is affected, it could pose a serious threat to the entire index. Given this risk, traders might consider buying protective put options on the SMI as a hedge against a market downturn if the tariff situation worsens. Purchasing puts on individual pharmaceutical stocks could also offer a targeted response to this uncertainty. Despite the current challenges, the official forecast for consumer sentiment is expected to improve to -28. This marks a significant recovery from the -39 seen in the second quarter of 2025. While the situation appears bleak right now, there may be hope for better news later this year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Apple’s stock rose over 9% this week due to new U.S. manufacturing investments and tariff exemptions. According to the tradeCompass forecast, it remains bullish as long as the stock stays above $213.50, aiming for a target range of $238.50 to $241.50. If it closes below $213.50 for two consecutive days, the outlook will become bearish. The increase in Apple shares follows major investments in U.S. manufacturing and positive trade news. On August 6, Apple announced an additional $100 billion for its American Manufacturing Program, bringing its total U.S. investment to $600 billion over four years. This investment includes upgrades in chip production, glass manufacturing, and expanded research facilities. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump exempted large tech companies, including Apple, from 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, as long as they commit to U.S. manufacturing. This exemption helps Apple avoid trade risks and encourages domestic growth. As a result of this news, Apple shares increased over 5% on the announcement, followed by another 3% gain the next day. The target zone of $238.50 to $241.50 is where traders may start taking profits or short positions. Longer-term targets are set at $248.50 and $255.00, where selling pressure may occur. As of August 8, 2025, Apple stock showed a weekly gain of 5.54% and a 10.57% increase over three months. However, it remains down 11.61% year-to-date, indicating potential for recovery. With the recent 9% rally, Apple signals a bullish trend as long as it stays above $213.50. This movement is supported by the significant $100 billion U.S. manufacturing investment and important tariff exemptions. In the coming weeks, this presents an opportunity to aim for our first target zone of $238.50 to $241.50. We should consider buying call options set to expire in September or October 2025 to take advantage of this potential upward movement. The implied volatility for Apple options is currently moderate, making premiums reasonable since the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 15 last week. This allows us to establish bullish positions without paying too much for the insurance. The target range of $238.50 to $241.50 is a smart spot to consider taking some profits. We might create bull call spreads with a short strike within this range to reduce costs and clarify our maximum gain. In past situations involving similar investments from Apple in the late 2010s, the stock often stabilized at resistance levels before continuing its upward trend. Our risk is defined by the support level of $213.50. Two daily closes below this price would indicate that the bullish momentum has faded, prompting us to exit our call positions. At that point, switching to put options could be a wise strategy to guard against a downturn. This technical setup also benefits from a favorable market environment. The July 2025 inflation report was better than expected, reducing fears of aggressive action from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, Apple’s earnings report from late July highlighted strong growth in its high-margin Services division. These elements provide a strong fundamental basis for a bullish technical outlook.

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During the European session, the only data released will be from Swiss consumer confidence, but it is not expected to impact the market significantly. In the American session, the focus shifts to the Canadian employment report. Analysts predict that 13,500 jobs will be added in July, a big drop from the 83,100 jobs added previously. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 6.9% to 7.0%.

Bank of Canada Holds Steady

The Bank of Canada has stopped making changes as inflation is back near the high end of their 1-3% target. Current data does not show a need for additional rate cuts right now. The market sees a 61% chance of a rate cut in December. Unless upcoming data shows major surprises, this expectation is unlikely to change much. With the focus on North America today, August 8, 2025, the Canadian employment report is central. The forecast is for a modest report, with only 13,500 new jobs expected—a significant decline from last month’s total. This suggests that unless the numbers vary greatly, the market reaction may be muted. Since little volatility is expected in today’s data release, implied volatility for Canadian dollar options might decrease if the numbers match forecasts. Traders might find an opportunity to sell volatility using strategies like short straddles on the USD/CAD pair. The goal would be to earn the premium as option values decline in a stable market.

Market Strategies in Focus

This viewpoint aligns with the Bank of Canada’s current policy of holding steady. With the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures for July 2025 at 2.9%, inflation is at the upper end of the Bank’s target range. This leaves little reason to signal a near-term rate cut, stabilizing the currency for the moment. However, a surprising drop in jobs, such as a negative employment report, could change things quickly. This would likely increase the current 61% likelihood of a December rate cut and might even push it earlier. In that case, we could see the Canadian dollar weaken, making long USD/CAD positions or buying CAD put options smart strategies. Conversely, a strong jobs report could have a greater impact by challenging the dovish outlook. A quick look back to spring 2025 shows how a surprise surge in jobs led to a sharp rally in the Canadian dollar. If this strength repeats, it could wipe out rate cut expectations for the year and push USD/CAD down sharply. In the coming weeks, we’ll closely watch how Bank of Canada officials respond to today’s employment data. The figures will set the tone, but their insights will shape market expectations for the rest of the quarter. Any signs of growing concern about weak growth or ongoing inflation will guide our trading positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1650. It is caught between significant expiries at 1.1600 and 1.1700, which may limit big movements today. The AUD/USD is hovering near 0.6500. The presence of expiries is likely to keep the price steady, suggesting it will stay close to this level until the expiries are cleared.

Strength of the Pound Against the Euro

EUR/GBP is at 0.8675 after a decline, as the pound gained strength following a hawkish signal from the Bank of England (BOE). The current trading is supported by expiries and the 200-hour moving average around 0.8680, which may keep trading steady during European hours. Large options are currently keeping EUR/USD in a tight range, indicating uncertainty. This aligns with recent data that shows Eurozone inflation decreased to 2.1% in July 2025. Meanwhile, the latest US jobs report was solid but not strong enough to influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Over the next few weeks, it seems likely that the 1.1600-1.1700 range will hold, making low-volatility strategies like selling strangles appealing. The significant expiry at 0.6500 for AUD/USD is acting as a strong anchor today. This reflects a balance of negative and positive factors for the Australian dollar. We noted weaker industrial data from China last month, but iron ore prices have stabilized around $110 a ton, providing some support. Given the volatility of 2023, traders may treat this 0.6500 level as a pivot point for range-bound trades in the short term.

Policy Divergence Between the BOE and ECB

For EUR/GBP, the options at 0.8675 are creating a pause after the recent decline. This drop was influenced by the BOE’s greater concern about inflation compared to the European Central Bank (ECB). Recent UK CPI data for July 2025 showed a stubborn 3.5%. This difference in policy suggests that the easiest path is downward for the pair, so we may see this stability as a chance to position for further strength in the pound over the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Eurostoxx futures were flat in early European trading, showing a cautious mood after recent gains in European stocks. German DAX futures stayed the same, French CAC 40 futures increased by 0.1%, and UK FTSE futures remained unchanged. Wall Street’s drop overnight was balanced by strong tech shares. This week, European indices, including the DAX, have performed well, nearly recovering last week’s decline of over 3%. Looking ahead, ongoing trade talks between the EU and the US, along with the European Central Bank’s upcoming outlook, will shape market trends.

European Markets Pause

European markets are taking a breather after a strong recovery this week, with the German DAX making up for last week’s losses. This quiet trading is common in August, but low trading volume can lead to sudden changes. The Euro STOXX Volatility Index (VSTOXX) has come down to around 18 after hitting over 25 last week, indicating that some uncertainty still lingers. The European Central Bank’s next decision after its summer break is a significant focus right now. The recent Eurozone CPI reading for July 2025 was a stubborn 2.8%, putting pressure on the ECB to keep its tough approach. This scenario makes long-dated call options risky, while strategies like collars or put spreads on indices like the DAX may provide a buffer against a hawkish surprise in September. We are also closely monitoring the upcoming EU-US trade negotiations that are set to resume next month. With approximately $50 billion in potential tariffs still under discussion, sectors such as automakers and industrials are particularly vulnerable. Traders might think about buying puts on these sector-specific ETFs to protect themselves from negative news from the talks.

Central Bank Meetings

We experienced a similar trend in the summer of 2023, where a quiet August led to a volatile September due to central bank meetings and new policy signals. For now, with significant events approaching, traders should consider selling short-term options to earn premiums from the current calm. This capitalizes on time decay while waiting for clearer market direction following the summer lull. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold spot prices remain steady, even with a rise in COMEX futures caused by unexpected tariffs that have taken the market by surprise. These tariffs make gold pricier in the US than overseas, leading to a rare price difference between COMEX and London Metal Exchange (LME) futures. Gold shipped from London to the US has to be refined in Switzerland to match COMEX bar size requirements. This refining is costly due to the tariffs, which raises gold prices in the US. Switzerland is vital in this process, refining 90% of gold from industrial mines, further complicating the situation.

Market Uncertainty

There is uncertainty in the market as the gold rush seen in January and February has not continued. Companies like UBS warn of possible funding stress due to the tariffs. Although the situation is dynamic, gold lease rates have not significantly changed and are sitting at about -0.18%. Gold prices are around $3,392, while COMEX futures are rising as traders evaluate the scenario. A key question is whether the US is acting intentionally or making a mistake. Clarifications from the Trump administration could affect future prices and may lead to a revaluation of US Treasury-held gold, impacting the supply chain. Should demand rise, it could also lift spot prices as the market adjusts. As of today, August 8, 2025, the widening gap between COMEX and London gold prices is a critical indicator. COMEX futures for December delivery are trading at over $75 more than the London spot price, a difference not seen since the supply chain issues of 2020. This points to a significant structural problem in the US market from the unexpected tariffs. This situation opens up a clear arbitrage opportunity but also highlights significant delivery risks. The tariffs increase the cost of bringing gold to the US, especially since most needs to be recast in Switzerland. Recent data shows that open interest on COMEX has surged by 8% in the first week of August, indicating that traders are getting ready for a possible squeeze.

Risk Management Options

Given the uncertainty around the Trump administration’s intentions, using options is a wise way to manage risk. Implied volatility for gold options has spiked, with the Cboe Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) reaching its highest level since March 2025’s market jitters. Buying call options or call spreads allows traders to take part in a potential price surge while limiting losses. A similar, though smaller, disruption occurred in spring 2020 when the pandemic halted flights and disrupted the physical supply chain. Back then, the COMEX premium surged as traders raced to acquire physical bars for delivery against futures contracts. Now, the disruption is political, which may prolong the situation and result in more significant outcomes. Despite the rise in futures, gold lease rates remain low, with the one-month forward rate around -0.18%. This suggests there is currently no panic for physical gold in London, and large institutions still have supply access. A sudden increase in these rates would signal a genuine physical shortage in the market. If this is a calculated US strategy to revalue Treasury reserves, the current spot price of around $3,392 may just be the beginning. Such a move might force paper shorts to struggle to find physical gold for delivery. A speculative long position in far-dated COMEX futures could greatly reward those who believe this view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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JP Morgan now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year. They predict three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, starting in September. This is a shift from their earlier expectation of just one cut in December. At first, JP Morgan forecasted 50 basis point cuts in the first quarter of 2026, but they’ve changed their outlook. This update is due to worsening conditions in the labor market, and many analysts are starting to agree with this view.

Fed Funds Futures Expectations

Currently, Fed funds futures indicate about 59 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year. JP Morgan’s projections suggest a more cautious approach, likely to gain support if employment data weakens in the third quarter. There is an increasing belief that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates more swiftly, possibly starting in September 2025. This outlook stems from a declining labor market, indicating the economy is slowing down quicker than expected. For traders in derivatives, this speeds up the timeline for preparing for lower interest rates. This cautious perspective is backed by recent economic data. The July 2025 jobs report showed only 155,000 new non-farm jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. Coupled with core inflation dropping to 2.8%, the Fed has stronger reasons to ease its policies. Short-term interest rate (STIR) futures are already reacting, especially in SOFR contracts for the coming months. The prices for September and December 2025 SOFR futures have been rising, indicating market expectations of lower rates. Traders should keep in mind that while 59 basis points of cuts are priced in, a scenario with three cuts could lead to even more movement in these contracts.

Options on Bond ETFs

Options on bond ETFs, like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), provide another way to take advantage of this trend. Buying call options on TLT allows investors to bet on increasing bond prices (and falling yields) with limited risk. Bond market volatility, indicated by the MOVE index, has been around 110, signaling that significant price changes are expected as the September Fed meeting approaches. We can look back to the summer of 2019 for a similar situation, when the Fed shifted from tightening to easing. In the months leading up to the first rate cut in July 2019, traders who prepared for falling rates enjoyed significant profits. History shows that the time just before the first cut is often crucial for taking action. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The tradeCompass strategy from investingLive.com provides insights into trading Ethereum and highlights a potential bullish scenario for ETH Futures. The current price is between $3,950 and $3,960, with a target of $4,400. This strategy takes a long-term view, differing from typical day or swing trading, and involves careful planning for entry and stop-loss placements. For entry, there are three key buy zones near the current price: $3,960, $3,947, and $3,937.5. Buying from these zones could lead to a reward-to-risk ratio of over 7 if the price hits $4,400. Recommended stop-loss levels are between $3,887 and $3,884, with a longer stop at around $3,813. If the price falls below $3,810, it may indicate a shift to bearish sentiment. In case the bearish threshold is crossed, target levels would shift to $3,762, $3,697, and $3,633. This strategy focuses on gradually building a bullish position rather than frequently taking partial exits. The tradeCompass framework is influenced by institutional trading levels, offering a structured approach for those interested in Ethereum’s upward potential. This guide is not financial advice and encourages responsible trading. For further analysis, visit investingLive.com. As of August 8, 2025, derivative traders should think about increasing their long position in Ethereum. This trade expects a move from the current $3,960 price up to a longer-term target of $4,400, requiring patience and a longer outlook than day-trading. Traders can scale into this bullish position by placing buy orders at strategic levels near the current price. An initial buy could be made at $3,960, with additional possible entries at $3,947 and $3,937.5. This layered method helps manage risk while aiming for the $4,400 target. Favorable macroeconomic trends support this bullish outlook. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from July 2025 shows inflation cooling to 2.9%, slightly below expectations. This suggests the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates steady, benefiting risk assets like Ethereum. There is also renewed interest from institutional investors, a key factor in late 2024’s market movements. Spot Ethereum ETFs have gained over $500 million in net inflows this week, a strong turnaround from minor outflows in late July. This influx indicates that larger investors are positioning for potential price increases. On-chain data points to a supply squeeze as well. More than 30% of circulating ETH is now locked in staking contracts, reducing the supply available on exchanges. This constrained supply, paired with rising demand, strengthens the case for price increases. To manage risk, it’s important to set a stop-loss at a level that would clearly invalidate the bullish plan. A primary stop-loss around $3,887 would keep us below the significant $3,900 level and important technical zones, allowing us to avoid being influenced by normal market volatility. The crucial line for this bullish outlook is $3,810. If the price drops and stays below this level, it would suggest sellers have taken control. In that case, we would look at potential downside targets of $3,762 and lower. Looking back, the current market structure is similar to the consolidation phase before the significant rally in late 2024. Ethereum futures open interest has risen above $15 billion, indicating that speculative interest is returning. However, stable funding rates suggest that this is driven by genuine demand instead of excessive leverage.

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