Industrial production in Switzerland rises to 2.4% year-on-year, up from -0.1% previously
Switzerland’s industrial production rose by 2.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, bouncing back from a previous decline of -0.1%. This improvement signals a recovery in the sector.
EUR/USD is under pressure due to cautious market sentiment, with investors focusing on upcoming US economic data. Meanwhile, GBP/USD struggles with increased demand for the US Dollar, amid concerns about the UK’s finances. Gold continues to trade below $4,100, suggesting limited chances for growth.
USD/CAD shows bullish momentum near 1.4020 while testing the nine-day EMA despite slight losses
USD/CAD experienced a slight movement after showing modest losses in the previous session. It is currently trading around 1.4020 during European trading hours. The daily chart indicates a steady upward trend, as the pair remains within its rising channel.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is just above 50, suggesting a mild bullish sentiment. However, short-term momentum is weak since USD/CAD is trading slightly below the nine-day EMA, which is at 1.4027.
Short Term Momentum Considerations
If USD/CAD breaks above this EMA, it could improve short-term momentum and push the pair towards the seven-month high of 1.4140. Beyond that level, gains may aim for the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 1.4190. On the downside, significant support is at the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 1.4000, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3965. A drop below these support levels could shift momentum to the downside, pushing USD/CAD towards the three-month low of 1.3721. Today, the Canadian Dollar showed mixed results against other currencies. It was the weakest compared to the New Zealand Dollar, demonstrated slight gains against the US Dollar, and remained flat against the British Pound, indicating varying market conditions among different currency pairs. Currently, USD/CAD is testing the 1.4027 level, which is acting as a short-term ceiling. Even though the pair is in a broader upward channel, this hesitation suggests weak momentum. Derivative traders should watch this indecision, as it presents opportunities for strategies that could benefit from either a breakout or a breakdown.Potential Strategies and Market Outlook
The potential for stronger USD/CAD is bolstered by recent US inflation data showing core CPI stable at 3.4%, which may keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish course. Traders expecting a break above 1.4027 might think about buying December call options with a strike price around 1.4050. This positions them to capitalize on a move towards the seven-month high of 1.4140, previously seen on November 5th. Conversely, weaknesses in the Canadian economy and declining oil prices support a bearish outlook. With WTI crude recently falling below $70 a barrel and Canadian employment data from early November indicating an unexpected slowdown, the 1.4000 support level appears vulnerable. A drop below this psychological level could be addressed by purchasing put options with a strike at 1.3950, aiming for the 50-day average around 1.3965. This tension between a strong US economy and a weakening Canadian outlook raises the likelihood of significant price swings. A similar divergence was observed between 2014 and 2016, when differing central bank policies sharply drove up the pair. Therefore, for those unsure of the direction, volatility-based strategies like buying a straddle may be effective for capturing large moves, whether up or down. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Switzerland’s industrial production increases from -0.1% to 1.9% year-on-year
Switzerland’s industrial production has improved, with growth rising from -0.1% to 1.9% year-on-year in the third quarter. This change indicates a positive shift in the country’s industrial activity.
Attention now turns to Canada’s inflation report, which will provide the Bank of Canada with crucial information about price trends. The bank is likely to keep the interest rate steady at 2.25% during its next meeting.
Stock Futures Show Calmness
As the week begins, stock futures in both the US and Europe are showing stability with minor movements. American futures are expected to see slight gains following Friday’s significant sell-off, while European indices remain steady. Pi Network (PI) is trading above $0.2200 on Monday after a 3.52% increase on Sunday. This uptick comes after updates from Pi App Studio, marking a three-day price recovery for the PI token. A list of top Forex brokers for 2025 provides insights on currency trading, highlighting brokers with low spreads, high leverage, and platforms like MT4. Other sections focus on brokers tailored for specific regions and account types. The content is for informational purposes only and does not offer investment advice. It includes forward-looking statements that carry risks, so thorough research is recommended before making decisions, as losses are possible in open markets.Market Reactions to Recent Reports
The rise in Swiss industrial production to 1.9% signals renewed strength in Europe’s industrial sector. This follows a contraction earlier in 2025, reminiscent of late 2023 when the manufacturing PMI was below 45. This positive news could make call options on the Swiss franc (CHF) or Swiss Market Index (SMI) futures appealing as a way to capitalize on the recovery. All attention is on the impending Canadian inflation report, which will significantly impact the Bank of Canada’s decision on rates on December 10th. Policymakers are expected to keep rates at 2.25%, but any surprises could lead to significant movement in the Canadian dollar. We suggest considering straddles or strangles on USD/CAD options to trade potential volatility, as a similar inflation report back in January 2024 caused a jump in short-term implied volatility of over 15% on that day. After last Friday’s sell-off, calm has returned to the wider market, with US and European futures indicating a stable start. With the VIX, a key measure of market fear, now below 17, the cost of options has become more attractive. This lower volatility environment creates an opportunity to buy protective puts on major indices like the S&P 500 at a better price. On the more speculative front, we’re observing certain digital assets like PI as they approach significant technical levels. The token nearing its 50-day moving average is a typical point for momentum. Derivative traders should keep an eye on funding rates for perpetual swaps to assess if this recovery has solid support from bullish traders. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.VerifyMe reports a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, exceeding revenue expectations
VerifyMe, Inc. reported a loss of $0.02 per share in Q3, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a $0.04 loss. This is an improvement from last year’s loss of $0.06 per share. The company had a positive earnings surprise of 50% this quarter, following a 66.67% surprise in the previous quarter. Over the last four quarters, VerifyMe has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times.
In Q3 2025, VerifyMe’s revenue reached $5.03 million, surpassing estimates by 2.92%, but down from $5.43 million a year earlier. The company has beaten consensus revenue estimates twice in the past four quarters. Since the beginning of the year, VerifyMe shares have dropped about 41.5%, while the S&P 500 gained 14.6%. The company’s stock performance largely depends on earnings projections and management statements.
For the next quarter, the consensus EPS estimate is -$0.02 with projected revenues of $7.47 million. The full-year estimate stands at -$0.13 EPS with $21.34 million in revenues. Arbe Robotics Ltd., a competitor, plans to release Q3 2025 results on November 17, forecasting revenues of $0.7 million, marking a substantial increase of 483.3% from the previous year.
VerifyMe’s lower-than-expected loss of $0.02 per share, compared to the projected $0.04, has sparked short-term positive sentiment. Yesterday, trading volume surged to over 2.5 million shares, much higher than its 50-day average of around 700,000, indicating that traders are adjusting their positions. However, it’s important to note that the stock is still significantly down since January 2025.
For derivatives traders, the immediate aftermath of the earnings report likely means a sharp decline in implied volatility. This “volatility crush” benefits those who sold premium through strategies like iron condors or straddles before the announcement. Interest is rising in December 2025 call options with a $1.50 strike price, suggesting expectations for a slight rise in stock price in the coming weeks.
We should be cautious about the decline in year-over-year revenue, which fell to $5.03 million from $5.43 million in the same quarter of 2024. Generally, stocks that beat earnings estimates but show falling revenue may experience a short rally before falling again. Buying protective puts could be a wise hedging strategy if the stock can’t maintain its post-earnings gains.
Management’s announcement of a new partnership during the earnings call may act as a growth catalyst into 2026, potentially supporting the stock price. The overall Technology Services industry is also doing well, providing a helpful boost. However, with the Federal Reserve indicating it will keep interest rates steady through early 2026, the market remains sensitive to weaknesses among small-cap growth companies.
We are also monitoring Arbe Robotics, which is releasing its results today, November 17th. A strong report from Arbe could enhance confidence in the sector, providing a lift for VerifyMe. On the other hand, if Arbe disappoints, it could dampen the positive sentiment and put pressure back on VerifyMe shares.
Governor Ueda says underlying inflation rate is below target, leading to ongoing accommodative monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan is keeping its monetary policy easy since inflation is still below its target. The Bank warns that maintaining such a loose policy for too long could make it hard to reach the 2% inflation goal.
The USD/JPY pair increased by 0.15%, now trading at 154.80. The Japanese Yen is currently weakest against the New Zealand Dollar, with a drop of 0.18% against it.
Performance Of The Japanese Yen Against Major Currencies
The Japanese Yen’s performance against major currencies shows its shifts in value. It decreased by 0.15% against the US Dollar, 0.09% against the Euro, and 0.14% against the British Pound. The Bank of Japan plans to stick with its easy-money policy because inflation is still below target. This keeps interest rates in Japan close to zero, widening the gap with rates in other big economies. This likely means the Yen will stay under pressure. Recent economic data from October 2025 shows Japan’s core inflation at 1.8%, still shy of the 2% target. Additionally, the economy is slowing down, with a slight contraction of 0.2% in Q3 2025 GDP. This leaves the central bank with little room to think about raising interest rates soon.US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Strategy
On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is keeping its key interest rate at 4.50% to deal with ongoing inflation, which is currently at 3.1%. This large interest rate difference of over 4% makes borrowing Yen to invest in US Dollars—known as the carry trade—very profitable. This trend is driving the USD/JPY pair higher. Given this backdrop, buying USD/JPY call options seems like a smart move for the upcoming weeks. This strategy allows traders to gain from any further weakness in the Yen while limiting potential losses. If current policies stay the same, movement towards the 158-160 level seems likely. However, we need to watch for potential government intervention. The USD/JPY rate of 154.80 is close to levels that triggered Yen-buying interventions in 2022 and 2024. The Ministry of Finance usually steps in to curb rapid currency falls. This risk makes holding long option positions, which have defined losses, more appealing than maintaining a short Yen spot or futures position. The mixed signals from the Bank of Japan, highlighting the risks of long-term easing while maintaining it, could cause sudden changes in market sentiment. Therefore, derivative traders might also look at strategies that benefit from increasing volatility, like a long straddle. This would be profitable if there is a significant move in either direction due to a surprise policy change or direct market intervention. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As the US dollar strengthens, the Japanese yen hovers near a nine-month low.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is still weak against the strong US Dollar (USD) as we enter the early European session on Monday. It is close to a nine-month low reached last week. Japan’s economy shrank by 0.4% from July to September, marking its first decline in six quarters. This disappointing data makes it less likely for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates. On the other hand, the US Dollar is benefiting from lower expectations for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December, keeping the USD/JPY pair above the 154.45-154.50 level.
Concerns about possible Japanese government actions to support the Yen and geopolitical tensions with China may help limit JPY losses. Japanese officials have warned about currency fluctuations, making aggressive selling of the Yen less likely. Important upcoming events, such as the US nonfarm payrolls report and FOMC meeting minutes, could affect future USD/JPY movements.
Technical Overview
Technically, the USD/JPY pair looks set for gains above the 155.00 level if momentum continues. However, if it falls below the 154.00 support, new buyers may emerge around the 153.60-153.50 area. The USD is the most traded currency globally, and its value is influenced by US Federal Reserve policy decisions related to interest rates. Factors like quantitative easing and qualitative tightening also impact its worth. As of November 17, 2025, the split in policies between the US and Japan favors a stronger dollar against the yen. Japan’s economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, shrinking by 0.4% in the third quarter. This weak data, along with Prime Minister Takaichi’s call for more stimulus, suggests the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates soon. This dovish outlook is further confirmed by Japan’s latest inflation data. The Tokyo Core CPI, which predicts national prices, recently dropped to 2.5% in October 2025, down from over 4% in 2023. This decrease in price pressure allows the Bank of Japan to keep its ultra-loose monetary policy, putting additional strain on the yen. This environment makes shorting the JPY an appealing strategy. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems steadfast, reducing the likelihood of another rate cut in December. Recent US inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index at a stickier-than-expected 3.4%, giving policymakers pause. This interest rate gap is a significant factor keeping the USD/JPY pair high.Watch for Intervention Risks
However, we need to be careful as the USD/JPY pair nears the 155.00 level. Remember that Japanese authorities intervened in the market to strengthen the yen when the pair exceeded 151.00 in late 2022. Recent warnings from Finance Minister Katayama suggest the risk of intervention is now very high. For traders using derivatives, taking long positions in USD/JPY futures could be risky due to the potential for a sudden drop. A more prudent strategy would be to buy USD/JPY call options to benefit from potential upside while clearly defining your maximum loss. This approach protects you if the Ministry of Finance decides to take action and sell dollars. Everyone should now pay close attention to the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls report for October, which will be released this week. This will be the first significant data point reflecting the economic effects of the recent long government shutdown. A much weaker-than-expected result could quickly shift sentiment against the dollar and lead to a sell-off in USD/JPY. On the technical side, keep an eye on the key level of 153.00. A significant break below this point would indicate that bullish momentum has weakened and could shift the near-term bias to bearish. Until then, the strategy is to look for buying opportunities on dips, while being cautious about the exit. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.WTI oil price drops to $59.30 during the European session, while Brent holds steady at $63.92
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices dropped early on Monday during the European session, trading at $59.30 per barrel, down from $59.77 at the previous close. Brent crude, however, remained steady, staying around its last close of $63.92.
WTI is a type of crude oil from the United States, known for its low density and low sulfur content. It serves as a key benchmark in the oil market and is frequently mentioned in price reports. Factors affecting its price include supply and demand, political instability, and decisions made by OPEC. Additionally, the strength of the US Dollar can impact oil prices.
Inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) also influence price changes. A decrease in inventory usually indicates higher demand, which can raise prices, while an increase suggests a surplus, likely lowering prices. These reports are published weekly and have a 75% accuracy overlap. The EIA data is often regarded as more reliable because it is backed by the government.
OPEC affects oil prices by setting production levels during its meetings held twice a year. Changes in these production quotas can impact supply and therefore influence the price of WTI oil. The extended group, known as OPEC+, includes additional nations like Russia.
With WTI crude falling to $59.30, this decline reflects ongoing concerns about global economic demand. Recent manufacturing data from Europe and China has been weaker than expected, suggesting that fuel consumption might decrease as we move into 2026. This situation limits the potential for significant price increases.
In the coming weeks, attention will shift to the OPEC+ meeting, likely scheduled for the first week of December. There is increasing speculation that Saudi Arabia might advocate for deeper production cuts to maintain prices above $60 per barrel. Any signs of disagreement, especially from Russia or the UAE, could lead to more price fluctuations.
Adding to the downward trend is the strength of the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will keep interest rates stable through the end of the year to control inflation. Last week’s EIA report showed an unexpected inventory increase of 1.8 million barrels, indicating a well-supplied US market. This week’s API and EIA figures will be closely monitored for any signs of rising demand that could counteract the bearish trend.
From a trading standpoint, the uncertainty before the OPEC+ meeting is causing an increase in implied volatility in the options market. Traders might consider strategies that benefit from significant price changes, regardless of direction. Purchasing a straddle with January 2026 options could be a solid strategy for potential movement after the meeting.
Looking back, the current situation differs greatly from the supply-driven shocks we saw in 2022 and 2023. The market is now concerned about demand weakening, making downside protection increasingly important. We think that buying puts with a $55 strike price for February 2026 delivery is a cost-effective way to protect against a lack of meaningful cuts from OPEC+.
The Euro stays stable above 0.8800, while the Pound faces economic pressure
Interest Rates and Economic Indicators
The Pound Sterling, the oldest currency in the world, is strongly affected by the Bank of England’s (BoE) policies to keep inflation around 2%. The BoE changes interest rates based on key economic signs like GDP growth and inflation levels. When economic signals are strong, the GBP usually rises because it attracts foreign investment. On the other hand, weak economic data often causes its value to drop. The UK’s Trade Balance, which compares money earned from exports to what is spent on imports, also influences GBP. A positive trade balance boosts the currency, while a negative one can weaken it. As of November 17, 2025, the market shows a clear difference between the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). With EUR/GBP stable around 0.8825, the Pound Sterling is under pressure due to expectations of a BoE rate cut. Meanwhile, the ECB remains firm, giving the euro a chance to rise against the pound.Options Strategy and Historical Context
The case for a weaker pound is becoming more convincing, especially after last week’s disappointing UK GDP figures. Recent inflation data from late October 2025 shows UK CPI has dropped to 2.3%, a significant decrease from the previous month and closer to the BoE’s 2% goal. This slowing growth and falling inflation make it more likely the BoE will cut rates to help the economy. For traders using derivatives, this suggests they should prepare for a potential rise in EUR/GBP in the coming weeks. One strategy could be to buy EUR/GBP call options that expire after the BoE meeting on December 18. This approach allows traders to profit from a possible increase if the BoE cuts rates, while limiting their risk to the cost of the options. Looking back at past times when central banks pursued different policies can provide context. For example, after the 2016 Brexit referendum, the BoE’s easing pushed the EUR/GBP pair above 0.9000. Although the situation is different now, a central bank cutting rates while another keeps rates steady can lead to a lasting currency trend. This historical trend supports the idea of a significant upward move from current levels. The main risk to this strategy is if the BoE unexpectedly keeps interest rates steady in December, which would likely cause the pound to strengthen sharply. We will be paying close attention to BoE member Catherine Mann’s speech later today for any hawkish hints that might challenge the rate cut expectation. Using options offers a clear-risk method to trade this likely scenario. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Euro stays stable above 0.8800 as expectations grow for a BoE rate cut.
EUR/GBP is stable around 0.8825 in early European trading on Monday. Weak UK GDP data is putting pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to make a move. In contrast, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Mārtiņš Kazāks stated that there’s no need to change interest rates.
The UK economy grew only 0.1% in Q3 of 2025, missing expectations. Year-over-year GDP growth was 1.3%, below the forecast of 1.4%. This could lead the BoE to lower rates, with interest-rate swaps showing a 79% chance of a 25-basis point cut in December.
Potential Impact On Currency
Concerns about the UK’s fiscal debt and rate cut expectations may weaken the Pound Sterling against the Euro. While the BoE could lower rates, the ECB remains cautious, which may help support the Euro against the GBP. The Pound Sterling, shaped by the BoE’s policies, is significantly affected by economic data like GDP and trade balance figures. A strong economy can bolster the Sterling by attracting foreign investment, while weak data usually weakens it. Lallalit Srijandorn, a digital entrepreneur in Paris and Bangkok, wrote this analysis. There is a clear divide in policies between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. With UK growth at just 0.1% last quarter, the market is heavily betting on a BoE rate cut next month. This was backed by last week’s data showing UK inflation fell sharply to 2.1% in October 2025, much closer to the BoE’s target.Trading Insights
This suggests positioning for a higher EUR/GBP exchange rate in the coming weeks, aiming towards 0.8900. Buying call options with strike prices near 0.8900 or 0.8950, expiring after the BoE meeting on December 18th, could be a good way to trade this expected weakness of the sterling. Implied volatility on these options may increase as the meeting date approaches. We have seen similar situations in the past, especially after the 2016 Brexit vote. The BoE’s monetary easing then, compared to the ECB’s approach, pushed EUR/GBP from below 0.75 to above 0.90. While the scale of this move may vary, the main reason for the policy difference remains unchanged. In the Eurozone, inflation is more stubborn. The latest Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is at 2.7%, justifying the ECB’s cautious hold. Meanwhile, the most recent UK retail sales figures showed an unexpected 0.5% drop in October, indicating a weak start to the fourth quarter. This mix of weak UK consumption and steady Eurozone inflation supports a rising EUR/GBP. We should also pay attention to comments from BoE officials like Catherine Mann later today for any clues about their voting intentions. Additionally, the upcoming UK Autumn Statement on November 26th will be crucial, as any announcements of fiscal tightening could dampen UK growth further. A surprisingly hawkish tone from Mann could briefly support the pound, but overall economic data points toward weakness. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Euro stays steady above 0.8800 as sentiment changes about possible Bank of England rate cuts
The EUR/GBP pair is holding steady around 0.8825 as expectations rise for a rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE). This expectation comes after weak UK GDP data, which showed a 0.1% growth in the third quarter, falling short of the predicted 0.2%. Yearly growth stands at 1.3%.
Concerns about the economy and possible interest rate cuts could weaken the Pound Sterling. There is a 79% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE’s upcoming meeting on December 18. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) is adopting a cautious approach, which supports the Euro.
