The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently did a private survey. They expect a drop in crude oil stocks by 0.6 million barrels, an increase in distillates by 0.8 million barrels, and a decrease in gasoline stocks by 0.4 million barrels. This information helps oil storage facilities and companies get ready for the official government data release. The official report comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is set to be released on Wednesday morning, U.S. time. The EIA report offers a more in-depth analysis. While the API report shows total crude oil storage levels and weekly changes, the EIA includes data from the Department of Energy and other agencies. It also covers inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as storage levels for different types of crude oil, giving a complete picture of the oil market’s condition.

Market Reactions

We see the API survey data arriving just before the official government numbers come out tomorrow. This often leads to a brief spike in market activity, but the official EIA report is the one that counts the most. If there’s a big difference between the two reports, it could lead to a sharp price change on Wednesday morning. Given the chance for mismatched reports, traders might explore options strategies to benefit from the anticipated price swing. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has recently risen to around 35, indicating the market is preparing for surprises in tomorrow’s EIA data. This suggests that hedging against sudden movements, rather than picking a direction, could be a savvy short-term strategy. Looking ahead, we’re nearing the end of the summer driving season. In July 2025, U.S. gasoline demand averaged a modest 9.1 million barrels per day, slightly below expectations and lower than the 9.3 million bpd in July 2024. This trend could put pressure on crude prices as we head into autumn.

Supply Concerns

One major factor affecting supply in the coming weeks is the Atlantic hurricane season, which is currently at its peak. Any storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt a significant portion of the nearly 1.9 million barrels of daily offshore production. This risk of supply disruption is a key reason prices have stabilized despite mixed demand signals. Globally, we are closely monitoring OPEC+ policy after their June 2025 decision to keep output levels steady. This places greater importance on U.S. inventory reports as a primary indicator of global demand health. Any signs of reduced consumption in the official figures could boost confidence for bearish traders in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Super Micro Computer reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41. This was lower than the Wall Street estimate of $0.45 and down from $0.63 a year ago. Their revenue was $5.8 billion, which was less than the $6.0 billion forecast but showed an 8% increase from last year. The company’s gross margin was about 9.6%, missing the expected 10%. For future projections, Super Micro expects a non-GAAP EPS between $0.40 and $0.52, which is lower than the average estimate of $0.59. Super Micro anticipates revenue between $6 billion and $7 billion. Analysts expected $6.55 billion. However, the company is forecasting a total revenue outlook of at least $33 billion, much higher than previous estimates of around $20 billion. After these announcements, Super Micro’s stock fell about 10-11% in after-hours trading. Concerns included the lower-than-expected EPS, weaker margins, and increased competition in the AI-server market. Investors reacted negatively to the earnings report, significantly dropping the stock price after hours. The misses in EPS, revenue, and gross margin contributed to this sentiment, indicating worries about the company’s profitability. Pressures from rising competition are impacting margins. Recent news about major cloud service providers developing their own AI hardware supports these concerns. This suggests that while demand for servers remains strong, the ability to charge higher prices is decreasing. The contrast between disappointing current results and optimistic future projections has led to a spike in implied volatility above 85%. Such high volatility can create opportunities for sellers who think the fear is overblown. On the other hand, traders who expect more significant price movements may buy options to take advantage of the uncertainty. Considering the soft guidance for the upcoming quarter, we anticipate ongoing downward pressure in the following weeks. There has already been a surge in put option volume, exceeding three times the daily average, as many traders prepare for further declines. Strategies like buying protective puts or initiating bear put spreads are likely to be popular for hedging or speculating. Nonetheless, the full-year revenue projection of at least $33 billion contrasts sharply with the short-term outlook. This signals a strategy to prioritize market share over current margins. The company appears to be aggressively scaling up to meet long-term demands for AI infrastructure. Reflecting on the impressive growth of 2024, this might be a shift towards focusing on volume rather than immediate profits. For those who believe in the company’s long-term growth potential, the recent price drop could be a good buying opportunity. Traders might consider selling cash-secured puts at lower strike prices or purchasing long-dated call options to position for a recovery later this year.

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The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism index for August in the United States reached 50.9, beating the expected 49.2. This monthly number shows that people feel better about the economy than previously thought.

Potential Risks and Uncertainties

All the information provided carries potential risks and uncertainties linked to market activities. It’s essential to do thorough research before making investment decisions, as the details shared may contain errors or inaccuracies. The financial instruments discussed here are meant for informational purposes only and do not serve as trading advice. Investing in open markets comes with significant risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. Each individual is fully responsible for their investment choices. It’s important to recognize that there are no guarantees regarding how timely or accurate the information is, and any related risks or expenses are your responsibility. The August economic optimism index at 50.9 reflects slightly more positive feelings among consumers, which could help support the market. More importantly, this figure exceeded forecasts, indicating that the economy is more robust than many expected. This might help corporate earnings and stock indexes in the near future.

Market Environment of 2023

We need to consider this in the context of Federal Reserve policy, as strong consumer data could delay potential interest rate cuts. The Consumer Price Index data from July 2025 shows inflation at 3.1%, above the Fed’s target. This likely means policymakers will continue to be cautious, creating a challenging environment where positive economic news could limit market growth by keeping borrowing costs high for longer. Given this, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been fairly low, recently trading below 15, which shows a level of market complacency. This situation could favor strategies that benefit from stable price movements or slow increases, like selling premium on major indices. However, traders should stay vigilant for the next inflation report and communications from the Fed, as these could quickly change the scenario. Looking back at the 2023 market environment, we remember that strong economic data used to be bearish for stocks because of worries about rate hikes. Although we seem to have moved past that phase in 2025, we should keep this memory in mind. The current optimism is fragile and heavily relies on inflation continuing to decline gradually. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US ISM Services PMI dropped to 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June, and fell short of the expected 51.5. This indicates a slowdown in the US service sector. The Prices Paid Index, which measures inflation, rose to 69.9. Meanwhile, the Employment Index fell to 46.4, and the New Orders Index dropped to 50.3. These changes highlight ongoing inflation pressures and a decline in employment.

The US Dollar Index Trend

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise, nearing the 99.00 mark, thanks to increased US yields that strengthened the Dollar. Data shows the US Dollar was strongest against the New Zealand Dollar, rising by 0.33%. These currency shifts reflect market reactions to the recent ISM Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI report had projected a slight rise from June’s 50.8. However, the actual results revealed a weaker performance in the service sector, pointing to challenges despite expected growth. Inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, with headline inflation climbing to 2.6% in June compared to a year ago. This enduring price pressure presents ongoing challenges for policymakers and economic stability. As of August 5, 2025, the US service sector is weakening faster than anticipated, now just above the 50-point line that marks growth from contraction. This slowdown is a serious red flag for the overall economy, urging us to prepare for the risk of an economic downturn in the upcoming weeks.

The Market Response to Economic Data

This difficult environment merges slowing growth with persistent inflation, creating a tough situation for the Federal Reserve. With the employment index showing contraction at 46.4, the Fed’s earlier aggressive measures to combat inflation are now being challenged. This clash of objectives is likely to lead to substantial policy uncertainty. Such uncertainty typically leads to increased market volatility. Traders should consider buying call options on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been sitting in the mid-teens as of early August 2025. Similar situations arose during the turbulent markets of 2022, where spikes in volatility produced significant returns for prepared traders. Given the current weakness in employment and new orders, a defensive or bearish approach toward US stock indices is advisable. Buying put options on the S&P 500 (SPX) or the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) allows investors to profit from a potential market drop. This strategy helps manage risk while anticipating the negative effects of this data on corporate earnings. The strength of the US Dollar Index, nearing 99.00, indicates it is serving as a safe haven asset. We expect this trend to persist, particularly against currencies from countries with more dovish central banks. Shorting the New Zealand Dollar against the US Dollar (NZD/USD) remains a compelling trade, supported by our analysis from July 2025, which indicated growing weaknesses in New Zealand’s export sector. We need to closely monitor interest rate futures, as the market will likely adjust expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting quickly. The chance of another rate hike, previously estimated at over 30% by the CME FedWatch tool, is likely to decline sharply. Observing this change will provide vital clues about how the market interprets the Fed’s next steps. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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New Zealand’s upcoming employment report is expected to show a rise in unemployment. Additionally, wage growth is likely to decrease compared to last year, which aligns with low and steady inflation levels. These trends may influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to cut interest rates on August 20. On August 6, 2025, the Asian economic calendar will feature important data, all in GMT.

Economic Calendar Overview

The calendar includes previous results on the far right and consensus median expectations in the next column when available. This gives a quick view of expected economic changes in the area. Tomorrow’s employment data from New Zealand is the main focus. The consensus indicates we should expect higher unemployment and slower wage growth, which supports the Reserve Bank’s case for cutting interest rates. An official rate reduction might occur as early as the next meeting on August 20. A rate cut would likely decrease the value of the New Zealand dollar since lower rates make it less attractive to investors seeking yield. This anticipation has been building over recent weeks, with derivative markets starting to reflect a higher chance of a rate cut.

Positioning for a Weaker Kiwi

Given this outlook, we see an opportunity to prepare for a weaker Kiwi dollar in the next few weeks. Buying put options on the NZD/USD is a clear-risk way to benefit from a potential decline. This strategy could be advantageous before the RBNZ meeting on August 20. Recent data support this view, showing a slowdown. The latest inflation report from July 2025 shows the headline CPI dropped to 2.8%, finally falling within the RBNZ’s target range of 1-3% after being above it for a long time. Business confidence surveys from last month also showed their lowest levels in over a year. We should recall the aggressive rate hikes the RBNZ initiated in 2022 and 2023 to control inflation. The current data suggests these hikes have worked, cooling the economy enough to consider a policy change. Tomorrow’s employment report is a crucial part of this picture. For those involved in trading interest rate derivatives, preparing for the RBNZ rate cut is an important strategy. Futures contracts linked to the Official Cash Rate already reflect expectations of easing. If tomorrow’s data surprises, such as a larger-than-expected increase in unemployment, it would likely speed up this trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Major US stock indices closed lower today, reaching their lowest levels since May. The Dow dropped by 61.90 points, or 0.14%, finishing at 44,111.74. The S&P index fell by 30.77 points, or 0.49%, closing at 6,299.17. The NASDAQ index decreased by 137.03 points, or 0.65%, ending at 20,916.55. In contrast, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rose by 13.36 points, or 0.60%, reaching 2,225.67. Palantir shares surged by 7.85% after reporting revenue over $1 billion, exceeding expectations.

Chip Stocks Drop

Chip stocks fell after President Trump suggested new tariffs might be coming. Broadcom slid by 1.61%, Nvidia dropped by 0.97%, and AMD declined by 1.40% with its earnings report expected soon. Super Micro Computers reported lower earnings and revenue, with an EPS of $0.41 compared to the expected $0.45, and revenues of $5.2 billion versus the anticipated $6.0 billion. Despite raising future revenue guidance, their shares dropped 12% in after-hours trading. AMD’s earnings showed an EPS of $0.54, beating the expected $0.47, and revenues of $7.69 billion, higher than the $7.4 billion expected. Their shares rose about 1-2%. The market is reacting to weak economic signals, with today’s ISM data at 49.4, the lowest since May 2025, indicating possible contraction. This downturn in the manufacturing sector is likely causing large investors to become more cautious. The declines in major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reflect this risk-averse sentiment.

Market Volatility Expectations

Given the current challenges, we believe market volatility is underestimated. The VIX, which tracks expected volatility, closed below 14 today, a level that does not seem to reflect the slowing economy and rising political uncertainties. We anticipate an increase in volatility in the coming weeks, making long-volatility positions appealing. Concerns about new tariffs are directly impacting the semiconductor sector, as seen with the declines in Broadcom and Nvidia. Looking back at 2018-2019, we know that tariff threats can cause significant and unpredictable fluctuations in these globally reliant stocks, making long positions in chipmakers risky without some downside protection. Interestingly, small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 rose today while large-cap stocks fell. This divergence suggests a potential shift away from mega-cap tech, which has dominated the market for years, toward other sectors. This could mark the beginning of a broader market trend. After-hours reactions to earnings provide further insight into market sentiment. Super Micro Computer’s 12% drop due to an earnings miss, despite strong guidance, indicates low tolerance for companies that fail to meet expectations. In contrast, AMD’s strong results were rewarded with only a modest 1-2% gain. In this context, we should consider strategies to guard against downturns in large-cap tech, such as buying put spreads on the QQQ. At the same time, the strength in small caps presents opportunities; exploring call options on the IWM may be worthwhile. For individual tech stocks, using collars to protect gains seems smart. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The ISM Services Prices Paid index in the United States increased from 67.5 to 69.9 in July. This change indicates shifts in the services sector. For the AUD/USD, the pair fluctuated between gains and losses, staying around 0.6470. Market sentiment is influenced by ongoing trade talks and speculation regarding Federal Reserve decisions. The EUR/USD pair found solid support at 1.1400 but stayed below 1.1600. Uncertainty remains, with traders closely monitoring trade talks and the potential new Federal Reserve Chair to succeed Powell. Gold remained strong near $3,400, even though it dropped to $3,380. This trend is affected by mixed US yields and the US Dollar’s unclear direction. In the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum fell below $3,700 as $465 million flowed out from US spot ETH ETFs. This drop happened despite SharpLink Gaming’s purchase of over 83,000 ETH. In the Euro area, the economy shows resilience, aided by an EU-US deal and higher spending in Germany. However, there is still a chance for final adjustments later this year, depending on wage trends. The rise in the ISM Services Prices Paid index highlights ongoing inflation issues in the services sector. This aligns with the recent June 2025 US Consumer Price Index report, which showed core inflation stuck at 3.8%. For derivative traders, this means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates soon, so strategies benefiting from high interest rates could be worth considering. The Australian dollar is trading in a narrow range around 0.6470 against the US dollar, indicating market indecision. This presents opportunities to sell volatility, such as implementing strangle strategies based on the expectation that the pair will stay within this range, similar to historical patterns seen before major central bank announcements. For the EUR/USD, there is a clear channel established between 1.1400 support and 1.1600 resistance. The uncertainty around the next Fed Chair is keeping the dollar stable, while Eurozone inflation at 2.5% for July 2025 offers support for the euro. We could benefit from options strategies like an iron condor if the currency pair remains within this defined range. Gold’s strong position near $3,400 is noteworthy, even with a slight retreat. With US real yields low amid current inflation, gold remains appealing as a non-yielding asset. We might consider buying call options to capture potential upside while managing risk, especially since gold has been on an upward trend after breaking 2024 highs. In the crypto market, Ethereum’s drop below $3,700 is a bearish signal due to substantial institutional ETF outflows. The $465 million exit from US spot ETH ETFs is a stronger influence than isolated corporate buying. Therefore, we should remain cautious and might use put options for protection against a further decline towards the next support level around $3,450. The Euro area’s resilience, bolstered by the positive German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, indicates strong underlying economic health. The possibility of a “final adjustment” from the European Central Bank later this year suggests a potential rate hike could still occur. We may want to use long-dated derivatives that could benefit from a stronger euro if the ECB takes action.

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In July, the United States ISM Services PMI hit 50.1, which was lower than the expected 51.5. This shows that the service sector’s growth is slowing down and not matching predictions. The AUD/USD exchange rate moved around 0.6470, affected by the US dollar’s bounce back. The EUR/USD struggled to stay above 1.1600 due to trade talks and speculation about the Federal Reserve, impacting market feelings. Gold prices hovered around $3,380 per troy ounce after nearly reaching $3,400. This stability came as US yields fluctuated and the US dollar lacked a clear trend. Ethereum prices dropped below $3,700, despite higher demand from treasury companies and significant outflows from ETH ETFs. Meanwhile, the euro area’s economy showed strength, backed by international deals and increased spending plans, although there are risks of future rate cuts. Foreign exchange trading involves high risks because of leverage. It’s important to understand these risks before investing, as losses can exceed initial amounts. Consulting an independent financial advisor for advice is recommended. From last month’s data, it’s clear that the US services sector is slowing. The July Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a gain of 175,000 jobs, lower than the expected 190,000, confirming this cooling trend. As a result, we are preparing for a possible shift from the Federal Reserve. We are looking into options that would benefit from lower interest rate expectations in the weeks to come. Last month, the EUR/USD pair faced pressure below 1.1600, and this situation continues. However, new data from early August revealed an unexpected rise in German industrial production, demonstrating the Eurozone’s strength even with a soft US economy. This suggests a possible range for the pair, making strategies like selling strangles on EUR/USD options appealing for collecting premiums while it stabilizes. In July, the AUD/USD fluctuated around 0.6470, with increased uncertainty now. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently decided to keep interest rates steady but adopted a cautious stance, highlighting concerns about slowing US growth impacting global demand. For traders, this means being heavily invested in the Aussie dollar could be risky, and using put options for protection might be wise. Gold remained steady near $3,380, and the recent weak US jobs data helped support this. The price is testing the important $3,400 resistance level again. We think buying call options on gold futures could be a smart way to take advantage of a potential breakout, especially with next week’s inflation data approaching. Ethereum’s decline below $3,700 occurred despite strong signs like increased treasury demand. Recent analysis shows large wallet addresses are starting to accumulate again, although overall trading volume is still low. This gives us an opportunity to sell cash-secured puts with strike prices around $3,500, allowing us to earn income while we wait for market sentiment to align with the fundamentals.

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The United States ISM Services New Orders Index fell to 50.3 in July, down from 51.3. This drop signals a slowdown in new orders for the services sector. The EUR/USD found solid support around the 1.1400 level as the USD continued to gain strength. At the same time, gold prices remained strong, staying close to $3,400 per troy ounce.

Ethereum Faces ETF Outflows

In the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum struggled to stay above $3,700 due to significant withdrawals from ETH ETFs. However, corporate purchases of Ethereum persisted, with SharpLink Gaming recently acquiring over 83,000 ETH. The euro area showed resilience during the summer. An EU-US agreement and planned increases in German spending improved the situation. Despite these positive signs, there are concerns about a possible economic cut in late 2025 or early 2026. For those trading currency pairs like EUR/USD in 2025, many brokers are available with competitive spreads and quick execution. Forex trading carries high risks, so careful evaluation of investment goals is advised. The decline in the US ISM Services New Orders index to 50.3 indicates that the American economy is losing steam. Coupled with the July 2025 jobs report, showing the slowest hiring in a year, we think bearish positions on the US dollar may be prudent. We’re considering buying put options on the dollar index, expecting further declines in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD Trading and Fiscal Policy

With the dollar weakening, we see support at the 1.1400 level for EUR/USD. The euro area is benefiting from Germany’s new fiscal spending package, which is expected to support the economy this autumn. We believe buying near-term call options on EUR/USD above this support offers a favorable risk-reward scenario. Still, we must be cautious about a potential rate cut from the European Central Bank in late 2025. This risk makes us hesitant to hold long euro positions for too long. We are exploring longer-dated options, like buying puts on the euro for the first quarter of 2026, to protect against this anticipated policy change. Gold’s strength near $3,400 an ounce is a reasonable response to the US slowdown and ongoing inflation, highlighted by last month’s 4.2% CPI reading. Given the inflationary trends of the early 2020s, investors are clearly looking for safety from currency depreciation. We think buying call options on gold miners is an excellent way to gain leveraged exposure to this trend. In the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum is experiencing volatility. Last week, there were record outflows over $600 million from ETH ETFs, yet corporate treasuries continue to buy, causing uncertainty. To take advantage of this, we recommend setting up option straddles to profit from significant price movements in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The ISM Services Employment Index in the United States fell to 46.4 in July, down from 47.2 in the prior month. This index shows trends in employment within the service sector. An index below 50 usually signals a decline in employment activity in the service industry. The drop in this number highlights some difficulties faced by the sector recently.

Cooling US Labor Market

The drop in the ISM Services Employment index to 46.4 signals a cooling U.S. labor market. This is the second month in a row where we’ve seen a contraction, suggesting an accelerating economic slowdown. Derivative traders should view this as part of a larger trend, not just a single statistic. This information aligns with the July 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls report released last Friday, which indicated job growth of only 150,000. This figure is much lower than economists expected. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.1% in that report, the highest it has been in over a year. Together, these pieces of data reinforce the view of a weakening job market. As a result, we believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to consider another interest rate hike in September. In fact, futures markets now predict a nearly 40% chance of a rate cut by December 2025, which is a big change from just weeks ago. Traders might look into interest rate options or futures that could benefit from stable or lowering rates.

Defensive Posture in Equity Markets

In the equity markets, we are taking a more defensive approach in the coming weeks. A weaker labor market puts pressure on consumer spending and corporate profit forecasts. We are thinking of buying put options on broad market ETFs like the SPY to protect against a potential market decline. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has risen to just over 18, which shows increasing uncertainty. We recall the market unease in late 2023. Historically, late August and September can be volatile for stocks. This situation may make long-volatility strategies, like VIX call options or straddles on individual stocks, more appealing. We are also monitoring the U.S. Dollar closely. It might weaken if traders believe the Fed will cut rates sooner than other central banks. This could create opportunities in currency derivatives, such as buying call options on the euro or Japanese yen against the dollar. The decline in service sector employment might indicate wider U.S. economic challenges. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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