NZD/USD is dropping as traders assess the impact of the US government shutdown, trade issues, and uncertain monetary policy. The shutdown has entered its third week with no end in sight, marking the third-longest pause in recent history. On a brighter note, easing tensions between the US and China may support the New Zealand Dollar. During European trading hours on Tuesday, NZD/USD dipped to around 0.5720, moving down from gains in the last two sessions. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates soon, which could weaken the US Dollar. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a nearly 99% chance of a rate cut in October and a 98% chance in December.

US-China Relations

Talks between the US and China may bring some stability, as President Trump hopes to reach an agreement with President Xi Jinping. However, issues like tariffs and market access remain contentious, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stating that China is engaging in damaging economic actions. The New Zealand Dollar’s value is affected by the health of its economy, decisions from its central bank, and the Chinese economy due to trade ties. Dairy prices are crucial too, as the dairy sector is a significant export area. Changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) compared to US rates can greatly influence NZD/USD. Economic data releases are essential for understanding New Zealand’s economic status and its currency value. In positive market conditions, NZD may strengthen as a commodity currency, while in turbulent markets, it may decline as investors seek safer assets.

NZD/USD Dynamics

NZD/USD is experiencing familiar dynamics amid rising uncertainty about the US economy. Recent data shows US Q3 2025 GDP growth is revised down to 1.6%, and the unemployment rate is up to 4.2%. This echoes previous slowdowns, similar to late 2019 when trade and Fed policies were key concerns. Historically, ongoing disputes over government funding and rate cuts have often weighed down the US Dollar. For instance, during the Fed’s rate-cutting phase in late 2019, NZD/USD gained over 7% from its October low as the Greenback weakened. Hence, derivative traders should be cautious about being overly negative on this pair, as signs of US economic weakness could quickly shift the dollar’s recent strength. On the New Zealand side, we should monitor vital economic indicators for any signs of independent strength. The latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China is at 50.9, indicating slight growth and providing steady demand for New Zealand’s exports. Additionally, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index rose by 1.8% in the latest auction, offering support for New Zealand’s trade terms. With these mixed signals, the implied volatility in NZD/USD options may be underestimated. The CME FedWatch Tool currently suggests a 35% chance of a Fed rate cut in Q1 of 2026, a figure that could jump if more weak data emerges. Traders might consider long straddle strategies to position themselves for a significant market shift once a clearer trend emerges. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index jumped to 98.85 due to excitement over a possible trade deal between the US and China. President Trump shared news of a meeting with Chinese Prime Minister Xi Jinping, expressing hope for a “fair deal” that could ease trade tensions. Meanwhile, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett suggested that the government’s ongoing shutdown, now in its fourth week, may end soon, which could also boost the dollar.

Market Sentiment and USD Index

The USD Index measures the dollar against six major currencies and is benefiting from positive market sentiment. The prospect of resolving the US-China trade conflict, which started in 2018 due to tariffs and trade barriers, is improving confidence. This conflict returned with Donald Trump’s presidency, which brought proposed 60% tariffs on China and new worries about potential global economic issues similar to those experienced before the pandemic. Statistics Canada is set to release inflation data for September, providing crucial information for the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Additionally, PancakeSwap’s CAKE token is under pressure as investors take profits, causing its price to drop below $2.90, while major stakeholders are reducing their holdings. With the US Dollar Index nearing 98.85, we are witnessing a typical relief rally fueled by hopes for a US-China trade deal. However, these gains rely on discussions, not an official agreement, especially after the 60% tariffs introduced in January. Thus, the strength of the dollar may be fragile ahead of next week’s meeting between the two leaders. The market’s fear gauge, the VIX index, has fallen below 20 for the first time in a month, down from nearly 30 when tariff impacts were factored in. This decrease in implied volatility makes it cheaper to buy protection. It might be a good time to consider purchasing put options on stock indices as insurance in case the trade talks go poorly. We remember that the previous trade war, escalating through 2018 and 2019, was estimated by the IMF to reduce global GDP by 0.8%. Given that the current tariffs are significantly higher, the market may be underestimating the risks if no deal is reached. The current optimism feels out of touch with the economic downturn reflected in supply chain data over the last nine months.

Government Shutdown and Economic Data

The ongoing government shutdown adds more uncertainty, leaving both the public and the Federal Reserve without important economic data. This situation resembles the 35-day shutdown we faced in late 2018, which delayed key reports and made it hard to predict Fed policy. Without fresh employment or inflation data, any Fed statements next week will be based on incomplete information. Today’s Canadian inflation data presents a trading opportunity. The market expects the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25 basis points on October 29, but Statistics Canada just reported a surprising annual inflation rate of 3.1% for September. This persistent inflation may compel the central bank to hold rates steady, which would likely strengthen the Canadian dollar. This scenario supports trades that would benefit from a hawkish surprise from the Bank of Canada, such as buying call options on the Canadian dollar or selling the USD/CAD currency pair. The difference between a data-blind Fed and a Canadian central bank facing ongoing inflation may shape currency movements in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The USD/CAD pair climbed to about 1.4060 during Tuesday’s early European trading. The Canadian Dollar fell against the US Dollar, driven by lower oil prices and expectations of an interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada, as indicated by its Business Outlook Survey. Canadian businesses noted slightly better conditions, but remain cautious about investments due to US tariffs. Inflation expectations are steady. Money markets show a 77% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in October. The Bank of Canada has already lowered its rate to a three-year low of 2.50%.

Impact Of Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices hit a five-month low, which negatively impacted the CAD since Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US. Traders are waiting for Canadian CPI inflation data, expecting a 2.3% rise in September. If CPI is higher than expected, it could support the CAD. The US government shutdown has now lasted four weeks, which may affect the economy and, in turn, the USD. Key factors affecting the CAD include Bank of Canada’s interest rates, oil prices, economic health, inflation, and trade balance. Economic indicators, macroeconomic data, and market sentiment are also important for CAD value. The USD/CAD is stabilizing around 1.4060 as we await today’s crucial Canadian inflation data. A higher-than-expected CPI could briefly boost the Loonie, but overall, the outlook points to weakness for the Canadian dollar. The main drivers are the cautious stance of the Bank of Canada and declining oil prices.

Canadian Dollar Outlook

There are strong indications that the Canadian dollar will weaken further, with money markets predicting a 77% chance of another rate cut from the Bank of Canada next week. This follows last month’s cut and is confirmed by a cautious business outlook survey highlighting the adverse effects of US tariffs. The situation is worsened by WTI crude oil prices, which have dropped below $75 a barrel, down from more than $90 this past summer. In this context, we should consider strategies for further USD/CAD strength using derivatives. Buying call options that expire after next week’s BoC meeting could capture a potential rise if the bank indicates more easing. A bull call spread offers a lower-cost way to express this opinion while limiting our risk ahead of today’s CPI release. This scenario mirrors what happened in 2015 when a significant drop in oil prices led the Bank of Canada to start an easing cycle. During that time, the USD/CAD exchange rate surged over several months. This historical example suggests that the current upward trend could continue if these economic conditions hold. The main risk to this outlook is the ongoing US government shutdown, which has now reached four weeks. This funding lapse may pressure the US dollar, potentially impacting fourth-quarter GDP growth. The shutdown is also delaying the release of important economic data, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) is falling compared to the US Dollar (USD) despite a positive trade deal between the US and Australia. This deal, signed by US President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese, involves a $8.5 billion commitment to critical minerals, with each country promising at least $1 billion for mining projects in six months. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is recovering from earlier losses, even as the federal government faces its third week of a shutdown. The Federal Reserve shows a 99% chance of interest rate cuts in October and December. The People’s Bank of China is keeping loan rates steady, while China’s GDP has increased by 4.8% year-over-year.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6510 with a bearish outlook in technical charts. The pair is encountering resistance at several critical technical levels. The Australian Dollar is particularly weak against the USD, with a strong focus on economic indicators and market sentiment. The AUD is influenced by several factors, including RBA interest rates, iron ore prices, China’s economic health, and Australia’s trade balance. High interest rates, strong growth in China, and trade surpluses benefit the AUD. In contrast, economic issues in these areas hurt it. Currently, the Australian Dollar shows marked weakness against the US Dollar. This trend is likely to continue in the short term. A promising US-Australia minerals deal is overshadowed by immediate concerns, particularly the expected interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia next month. Traders should prepare for further declines in the Aussie, especially since Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.5% in September 2025—the highest in nearly four years. This situation reflects past trends where rising unemployment led to RBA rate cuts and a weakening AUD. With the market factoring in a November rate cut, any short-term rises in the AUD/USD pair could present good selling opportunities.

US Dollar Strength

Conversely, the US Dollar is showing unusual strength despite the government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s plans for rate cuts in October and December. The US Dollar Index remains steady at approximately 98.70, indicating that its safe-haven appeal is greater than domestic political challenges. This stability suggests that, even with anticipated Fed easing, the US economy is viewed more favorably than others. The economic situation in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, adds to uncertainty and pressures the AUD. While recent Chinese data showed some positive signs, the ongoing slowdown in year-over-year GDP growth presents challenges. The AUD is particularly sensitive to these developments, especially given the volatility of iron ore prices—a major Australian export—due to concerns over Chinese demand in 2024 and 2025. Given this context, there are opportunities to bet on a declining AUD/USD exchange rate in the upcoming weeks. Derivative traders might consider buying put options on the AUD/USD pair or taking short positions in AUD futures contracts. The technical analysis supports this bearish outlook, with the next key support levels for the pair around 0.6414 and possibly even lower at 0.6372. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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For EUR/USD, expirations are set at the following levels: – 1.1600 with EUR 1.2 billion – 1.1700 with EUR 1.3 billion – 1.1800 with EUR 1.4 billion For GBP/USD, expirations are: – 1.3270 with GBP 1.2 billion – 1.3300 at GBP 800 million – 1.3650 with GBP 2 billion USD/JPY has a notable expiry at 152.00, totaling USD 1.3 billion. AUD/USD expiries include: – 0.6390 with AUD 796 million – 0.6500 with AUD 680 million NZD/USD will have an expiry at 0.5965 with NZD 719 million. Lastly, EUR/GBP is positioned at 0.8690 with EUR 509 million.

Bank Of Canada Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada will review September’s inflation figures to decide on interest rates. They may lower rates by 25 basis points. The global economy is showing some positive trends, although there are still concerns about deeper changes. PancakeSwap’s CAKE is under market pressure, trading below $2.90. Data shows increased profit-taking and large holders selling. Given the current market conditions, it’s important to conduct thorough personal research, as all investments come with risks. Today, October 21, 2025, significant option expirations could stabilize currency pairs in the short term. EUR/USD sees large volumes around 1.1700 and 1.1800, while there’s a major GBP/USD barrier at 1.3650. These levels may attract price movements until the New York cut. Traders should expect lower volatility around these areas in the coming hours.

Canadian Inflation Data Impact

Today’s Canadian inflation data is crucial for the loonie, influencing the Bank of Canada’s upcoming rate decision on October 29. The market expects a high chance of a 25 basis point cut, but if the CPI exceeds the forecast of 2.8%, it could challenge these expectations and lead to a significant rally in the Canadian dollar. A similar situation occurred in late 2023 when persistent inflation made central banks rethink their rate-cut plans, boosting currency value. For USD/JPY, the expiry at 152.00, with USD 1.3 billion, is significant. This level has previously prompted interventions from Japanese officials. We remember swift actions by the Ministry of Finance in 2022 and 2024 to support the yen around these levels. Therefore, holding significant short positions on the yen now carries a high risk of a sudden policy-driven reversal. The global economy is seeing some relief as it’s performing better than expected earlier this year. However, ongoing shifts suggest it’s a good time to consider strategies to profit from unexpected volatility, such as long straddles. The VIX index, currently around 14, could rise quickly with any unforeseen news. The large AUD/USD expiries are establishing a range for the currency, sensitive to China’s economic performance. Recent reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicate a slight slowdown in industrial output, adding caution for the Aussie. Until Chinese data improves, any increases in AUD/USD towards the 0.6500 barrier are likely to encounter selling pressure. In more speculative markets, like crypto, we see signs of profit-taking. The pressure on PancakeSwap, where large holders are trimming their positions, reflects a general risk-off sentiment in more volatile assets. This may indicate a decreasing risk appetite in traditional markets, so traders should stay alert. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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RBB reported $32.57 million in revenue for the quarter ending September 2025, which is a 7.5% increase from last year. Earnings per share (EPS) rose to $0.59, up from $0.39 the previous year. The revenue beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $31.67 million by 2.85%. EPS also exceeded expectations with a 43.9% surprise, as the estimate was $0.41. Key metrics help evaluate RBB’s financial health. The efficiency ratio stood at 57.4%, slightly better than the analyst prediction of 57.7%. Net charge-offs to average loans were 0.8%, higher than the estimated 0.4%. Non-performing assets were $54.31 million, just below the $55.11 million average estimate. Total interest-earning assets averaged $3.9 billion, slightly above the forecast of $3.83 billion. The net interest margin matched expectations at 3%. Non-performing loans totaled $45.48 million, lower than the estimated $53.85 million. The tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 17.9%, and the total risk-based capital ratio was 23.6%. Net interest income reached $29.28 million, compared to the estimated $28.61 million. Despite these strong results, RBB shares fell 12.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite rose by 1.1%. As of October 21, 2025, RBB’s solid earnings contrast sharply with its recent stock decline. The 12.4% decrease suggests the market expected disappointing news. This creates a potential for a short-term rally, making near-term call options appealing for a quick recovery. The key metrics present a mixed picture, offering both risks and opportunities. While the low level of non-performing loans and strong capital ratios are positive, the high net charge-off figure is concerning, coming in at double the anticipated amount. This indicates that while older loans are managed well, new credit problems may be emerging. The conflict between a strong earnings report and worrisome credit quality signals potential volatility in the upcoming weeks. The market may wrestle with whether the earnings beat outweighs concerns about future loan losses. For traders, strategies that benefit from volatility, like straddles or strangles, could be worth exploring. In the broader market, regional bank stocks have shown ongoing weakness throughout 2025, with the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) dropping 8% since July. This sector-wide pressure, driven by worries about commercial real estate, may limit RBB’s growth potential. Thus, selling out-of-the-money call spreads could be a smart approach to betting that any gains will be limited. Historically, we’ve seen how quickly market sentiment can shift for banks, especially during the turmoil in 2023. The market is now highly responsive to any signs of credit issues, so the high charge-off rate could overshadow the solid earnings in the coming days. This scenario supports buying downside protection, such as put options, to guard against the risk that sellers take control after the initial post-earnings excitement fades.

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Gold prices in Saudi Arabia fell on Tuesday, as reported by FXStreet. The price per gram dropped to 523.42 Saudi Riyals (SAR) from 525.26 SAR on Monday. The tola price also decreased, going from 6,126.53 SAR to 6,105.04 SAR. FXStreet updates these prices daily to align local figures with international rates. The prices shown are for reference and may vary slightly locally.

Gold As A Multifaceted Asset

Gold has many uses, including in jewellery and as a way to store value. It is often considered a safe asset, protecting against inflation and currency loss. Central banks hold large gold reserves and bought a record 1,136 tonnes valued at about $70 billion in 2022, mainly from countries like China, India, and Turkey. Gold prices are influenced by various factors, such as geopolitical issues and economic conditions. Lower interest rates usually result in higher gold prices since gold does not generate income. The strength of the US Dollar also impacts these prices; a strong dollar tends to lower gold prices, while a weak dollar may raise them. Currently, we see a slight dip in gold prices in the Saudi market. However, this small change should be viewed as part of a larger trend. Traders in derivatives shouldn’t react too strongly to this one-day shift but instead consider the wider economic signals. The latest news from the US Federal Reserve is key for us. The Fed hinted at pausing rate hikes last week due to slower growth in Q3. This comes even as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025 shows inflation is still above target at 3.1%. The combination of a cautious central bank and ongoing inflation usually supports gold prices.

Opportunities In Market Volatility

This uncertainty indicates greater market volatility, making long-volatility strategies appealing through options. Traders are increasingly buying call options on gold futures that expire in early 2026 to position for rises. Bull call spreads can also be a cost-effective way to bet moderately on gold’s price increase. Looking back, the record central bank purchases in 2022 set a lasting trend in support of gold prices. The World Gold Council’s recent report for Q2 2025 confirms that central banks have remained net buyers, adding an additional 250 tonnes to global reserves this year. This provides strong support for prices. A potential shift towards a more dovish Fed is putting pressure on the US Dollar Index, which has dipped below 102 for the first time since May 2025. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, typically increasing demand. We expect this trend to continue if the Fed confirms its pause at its November meeting. For those worried about a possible short-term reversal, especially if upcoming jobs data is unexpectedly strong, buying put options can serve as protection. These options function like insurance against sharp price drops. This is a smart strategy for traders holding large long positions in gold futures or related assets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in the Philippines fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet. The price per gram decreased to 8,126.22 Philippine Pesos, down from 8,152.20 on Monday. The price per tola also dropped to PHP 94,784.10 from PHP 95,085.65 the day before. FXStreet calculates these prices by converting international rates in USD to PHP, updating them based on daily market rates. These listed prices are for reference and may vary slightly from local rates. Gold has long been considered a safe store of value and a medium of exchange, often seen as a reliable investment during uncertain times. Central banks, which hold large quantities of gold, use it to diversify reserves and improve economic outlooks.

Gold Reserves in 2022

In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold to their reserves, worth around $70 billion, according to the World Gold Council. This marks the largest annual purchase on record, with countries like China, India, and Turkey increasing their reserves. Several factors influence gold’s price, including geopolitical instability and interest rates. Typically, gold’s value rises when the US Dollar weakens since it is priced against the dollar (XAU/USD). Today’s slight dip in gold prices reflects a market caught between mixed signals, rather than indicating a new trend. This decrease occurs even though the reasons for holding gold, like protecting against inflation and currency depreciation, remain strong. For traders, this small price movement is a fleeting market reaction within a larger, more complicated picture. The main factor affecting gold prices is the strong US Dollar, supported by central bank policies. The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 5.0% during its last three meetings in 2025, indicating a continuing effort to combat core inflation, which is stubbornly around 3%. This situation makes holding non-yielding assets like gold more costly, limiting any substantial price increases for now. On the flip side, ongoing geopolitical instability and strong central bank purchases provide a solid support for gold prices. In 2022, central banks added a record 1,136 tonnes, and recent data from the World Gold Council for Q3 2025 shows no slowing down, with an additional 280 tonnes added to global reserves. This steady demand helps shield against sharp price drops.

Gold Market Strategy

Given these conflicting forces, a strategy that focuses on unpredictable market movements may be wise in the upcoming weeks. The tension between high interest rates and strong safe-haven demand is likely to keep gold prices within a certain range, creating opportunities for traders using options strategies like straddles or iron condors. We expect implied volatility to rise as the market waits for clearer signals from macroeconomic data or geopolitical events. This situation is reminiscent of late 2023, when gold faced similar challenges from hawkish central banks and worries of a global slowdown. During that time, traders who guessed the price would stay within a range were more successful than those hoping for a major breakout. Current market conditions suggest a patient, range-bound trading approach is again appropriate. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The NZD/USD has dropped to about 0.5725 as the New Zealand Dollar struggles. This decline is expected due to potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which aims to control inflation. Meanwhile, the US Dollar strengthens as trade tensions with China ease. During the Asian trading session, NZD/USD slipped by 0.27% to around 0.5725. A table shows the New Zealand Dollar losing ground against major currencies, especially the US Dollar. Stats New Zealand reported a 3% annual increase in the Consumer Price Index, driven mainly by temporary factors.

Monetary Policy Considerations

The ongoing decline in price trends may lead to more interest rate cuts. The NZD/USD is around 0.5740, its lowest level in over six months, with EMAs trending down. The 14-day RSI is below 40.00, indicating bearish momentum. If the pair falls below the October 14 low of 0.5682, it could drop to 0.5628. Conversely, if it breaks above 0.6000, it might rise towards the June 19 high of 0.6040. This week, traders are watching for delayed US CPI data, which could influence market activity. The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, affects the RBNZ’s interest rate choices and thus the NZD’s value. The bearish outlook for the NZD/USD pair is strengthening, showing clear opportunities in the weeks ahead. Central bank policies are diverging significantly; market expectations now suggest over a 75% chance of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut in November. In contrast, strong retail sales data from last week in the US has reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year to below 10%.

Technical Analysis and Strategic Positions

Although New Zealand’s headline inflation recently rose to 3%, this increase was mainly due to one-time costs like land taxes and does not indicate a change in the overall cooling trend. Recent business confidence surveys from early October align with this perspective, showing declining sentiment that pressures the RBNZ to take action. This boosts the case for further interest rate cuts to boost the economy. Technically, the downward momentum is robust, with all major moving averages trending down. A drop below the recent low of 0.5682 should be seen as a key indicator for targeting further declines. The next support levels to monitor are the April low of 0.5628 and the psychological level of 0.5600. For options traders, this scenario is ripe for strategies like buying put options to profit from further declines. We might also explore bearish call spreads to earn premiums while managing risk, particularly with volatility in play. These strategies would leverage a shift toward the 0.5600 level over the next few weeks. The primary risk to this bearish view in the short term is the delayed US Consumer Price Index data due this Friday. A surprisingly low inflation figure from the US could weaken the dollar temporarily and trigger a sharp rebound in the pair. Therefore, it’s essential to manage positions cautiously leading up to that release. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet. The price per gram decreased from AED 514.35 to AED 512.39, and the price per tola decreased from AED 5,999.31 to AED 5,976.43. The US Dollar gained strength for the third consecutive day, impacting Gold prices during the Asian trading session. Easing tensions between the US and China also lowered demand for Gold, which is typically seen as a safe investment.

US Trade Policies and Federal Reserve Expectations

US trade policies took center stage, with potential tariffs on China approaching 155% if no agreement is reached. However, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October and December may support Gold prices amid economic uncertainty. The US government shutdown is now in its third week, affecting market conditions as the Senate failed once again to vote on reopening. Geopolitical tensions are evident, notably with Ukraine firmly rejecting Russia’s demand regarding Donetsk Oblast. Traders are waiting for upcoming US consumer inflation figures, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. FXStreet adjusts Gold prices in the UAE based on international rates using local currency and units, although actual rates may vary slightly. In 2022, central banks worldwide purchased 1,136 tonnes of Gold, showing a tendency to rely on it during uncertain times. Gold prices generally move in the opposite direction of the USD and fluctuate based on geopolitical and economic factors.

Recent Market Trends

Gold prices are currently volatile, sitting around AED 685.20 per gram, reminiscent of daily dips from previous years. A stronger US Dollar is exerting pressure on Gold, a trend that has historically affected prices. This short-term weakness might provide opportunities for derivative traders to prepare for future uncertainties. In the past, aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts acted as a boost for Gold prices. Today’s scenario is more complicated, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an 85% chance that interest rates will remain stable until early 2026. This ongoing “higher for longer” approach from the Fed is limiting significant price increases for now. Geopolitical risks have changed, but their effect on Gold as a safe haven continues. While broad tariff threats from the Trump administration have lessened, tensions between the US and China over technology and resources still cause market anxiety. The unresolved conflict in Ukraine, now ongoing for a long time, adds another layer of uncertainty that encourages holding defensive assets. Traders are closely monitoring this week’s US consumer inflation figures, as the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of 3.1% remains above the Fed’s target. Despite daily market fluctuations, a strong long-term trend of central bank accumulation persists, with over 800 tonnes added to global reserves this year. This strategic buying supports Gold prices and indicates a move away from reliance on the US Dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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