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Trump criticizes Powell again, hints at legal action, and questions the spelling of Mnuchin’s name
Trump is once again criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Powell and even hinting at possible legal actions. This brings back an old rivalry.
On Truth Social, Trump seemed unsure about how to spell Steve Mnuchin’s name, possibly misspelling it. This raises questions about whether he meant to call Mnuchin a “communist activist” but got it wrong.
As India’s CPI decreases, the USD rises against the INR, nearing 87.90 in late trading.
The Indian Rupee has dropped to about 87.90 against the US Dollar late on Tuesday. This decline coincides with a slowdown in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reported July’s retail inflation at 1.55%. This figure is below expectations and marks the lowest rate since June 2017.
With inflation pressures easing, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might consider more interest rate cuts. This year, the RBI has already cut the Repo Rate by 100 basis points to 5.5%. In their latest monetary policy meeting, the RBI adjusted its CPI forecast for the current Financial Year from 3.7% down to 3.1%.
Trade Tensions and Market Outlook
Trade tensions between India and the US add to the uncertainty surrounding the Indian Rupee. Upcoming talks scheduled for August 25 in New Delhi come as the US imposes tariffs that impact trade. On Monday, Foreign Institutional Investors sold shares worth Rs. 1,202.65 crores. The US Dollar Index remains steady around 98.50 as we await US CPI data, with predictions of a year-on-year increase of 2.8% for headline and 3.0% for core CPI. If inflation continues to rise, it could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions in September, where there is an 88% chance of a 25 basis point cut. The USD/INR pair shows a bullish trend, supported by technical indicators. The 20-day EMA provides support at 87.24, while resistance is expected near the August 5 high of 88.25.Rising Dollar and Emerging Market Pressure
The Indian Rupee’s slide to 87.90 against the dollar follows a familiar trend. July 2025’s retail inflation cooling to 3.5% puts pressure on the RBI. In the past, similar low inflation levels led to significant interest rate cuts that weakened the Rupee. Given these conditions, the RBI may need to consider another rate cut in its next monetary policy meeting to encourage growth. This potential shift in monetary policy compared to the United States is significant. Recently, foreign institutional investors sold over Rs. 15,000 crores in Indian equities last month, indicating their response. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index remains strong above 105 due to persistent inflation in the US. A strong dollar usually puts more pressure on emerging market currencies like the Rupee. We remember the sharp Rupee decline during the 2022 Federal Reserve hiking cycle, which resulted in nearly $29 billion in FII outflows from India. In the upcoming weeks, we should think about buying USD/INR call options to benefit from a potential upswing. A break above the recent high of 88.25 seems likely, and options with an 88.50 strike for September 2025 offer a solid risk-to-reward profile. This strategy allows us to profit from a rising USD/INR while limiting our downside risk to the premium paid. The technical outlook supports this optimistic view, with the pair trading well above its key moving averages. Implied volatility is likely to increase ahead of the next RBI and Federal Reserve meetings. Thus, establishing long positions now, before rising volatility raises options costs, is a wise strategy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.XAU/USD reverses from $3,400, finding support between $3,335 and $3,345, and trades sideways
**Gold Prices Await US Inflation Data**
Gold prices are currently supported around $3,340, but any rise is limited. The market is uncertain ahead of US inflation data, with technical indicators hinting at possible declines.
The XAU/USD pair came down from $3,400 and is now stable between $3,335 and $3,345. This range is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from an earlier rally in August, providing solid support.
During the European session on Tuesday, the pair traded sideways while the US Dollar Index consolidated. There is noticeable market caution as everyone waits for the US CPI figures, which could impact short-term trends.
Gold confirmed a trend change after dropping below $3,390, reaching the target at $3,345. The technical signs are still negative, suggesting that a drop below $3,335 could push prices toward the $3,305-$3,315 area.
Initial resistance is at $3,380, with potential to test the $3,400-$3,410 range. If prices break above this level, it would reverse the bearish outlook and bring $3,440 into consideration.
Central banks, especially from emerging markets, continue to accumulate gold. They purchased 1,136 tonnes in 2022. Gold’s price is influenced by its opposite relationship with the US Dollar and Treasuries, especially during times of geopolitical or economic instability.
**Trapped Within a Narrow Band**
Gold is currently stuck in a narrow band around $3,340. Significant price movements are on pause as everyone awaits important US inflation data later this week. The technical outlook suggests prices might still decline from this point.
Our primary focus is the US Consumer Price Index report set for Thursday. If inflation exceeds the expected 3.1%, the US Dollar may strengthen, pulling gold down towards the $3,305-$3,315 support zone since this would imply that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates.
Conversely, if inflation is lower than 2.9%, we could see a swift change in sentiment. This would likely weaken the US Dollar, allowing gold to rise and test the $3,380 resistance. A decisive break above $3,410 would void the recent bearish trend.
Given the negative technical signals, some traders might contemplate put options to protect against a decline. Purchasing puts with strike prices like $3,330 or $3,300 could be a strategy to profit if prices drop below support. This serves as insurance against a price fall following the inflation report.
On the flip side, traders expecting an upside surprise may look at call options with strike prices above $3,380. A drop in inflation could make these positions profitable, betting on a turnaround from the recent downward pressure.
It’s also essential to monitor the US 10-year Treasury yield, which is stable around 4.45% before the data release. The US Dollar Index is strong as well, hovering near a monthly high of 106.20. Ongoing strength in these markets tends to put pressure on gold prices.
Finally, it’s worth noting the long-term support from central banks. They bought a record 1,136 tonnes in 2022, and reports for early 2023 show they have already added over 250 tonnes to their reserves. This ongoing buying offers strong protection against any significant price drops.
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Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts a 0.23% increase in core PCE based on CPI data, affecting market sentiment.
Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts that the upcoming CPI data will show a 0.23% increase in core PCE. Similar trends are expected in the PPI data. Despite the latest CPI figures, market expectations for easing from the Federal Reserve have not changed much, and there is still strong belief that a rate cut is coming.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the CPI report could influence a rate cut in September. However, the July data wasn’t strong enough to block it. There are growing concerns about the reliability of economic data, especially after major revisions to U.S. employment numbers.
US Economic Data Concerns
Fed Chair Powell once viewed U.S. economic data as the best in the world, but recent events have raised questions. In response, President Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a critic of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to lead the agency. This comes after the dismissal of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, when revised job growth figures for May and June revealed an overestimate of 258,000 jobs, a change that received widespread criticism. Trump’s nomination appears to be an effort to place allies in important roles that influence economic data. The July CPI report leaves the door open for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting rates. The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting, despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. The main concern is the growing lack of trust in economic data. The large downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June 2025 has made relying on initial figures risky. This was one of the biggest revisions lately and has shaken confidence in the reports. This uncertainty is also affected by politics, as a known critic heads the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consequently, we must account for political risks with every major data release about jobs and inflation. Markets will likely analyze the methods used to collect data and expect revisions more than ever.Market Strategy Amid Data Skepticism
We’ve seen skepticism regarding data in the past, like the major annual revisions to payroll data in early 2023. Back then, the market reacted with sharp volatility as it adjusted economic expectations. We expect a similar but more prolonged pattern of uncertainty in the next months. Given this situation, holding onto volatility seems wise. We should consider buying options that could benefit from significant price movements, regardless of direction, especially around important data releases like the upcoming PPI report and the September FOMC meeting. Implied volatility on interest rate-sensitive ETFs like TLT is likely to rise. Rather than making simple bets on falling rates, traders might want to explore strategies like straddles or strangles. These could yield profits from significant market reactions to the economic data, whether the results are surprisingly high or low. Using puts to hedge existing portfolios on major indices is also becoming increasingly important. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and the core PCE data later this month. These reports will test the market’s confidence in official statistics in this new politically charged atmosphere. We expect any deviation from expected outcomes to trigger strong market reactions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.CPI report leads to USD decline against major currencies, but it begins to recover as markets react
The USD fell after the US CPI report, but is now stabilizing as the market absorbs the news. The report met expectations, showing goods inflation at 0.2%, which hasn’t increased due to tariffs, while services inflation came in at 0.4%.
US stocks are doing well in premarket trading: the S&P rose by 30 points, the NASDAQ increased by 99 points, and the Dow gained 177 points. Initially, US Treasury yields dropped but have now risen again.
Treasury Yield Update
The 2-year yield is steady at 3.753%. The 5-year yield has gone up by 1.8 basis points to 3.839%. The 10-year yield increased by 2.7 basis points to 4.300%. The 30-year yield is up by 4 basis points, now at 4.882%. A technical analysis video covers key currency pairs, including EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, and AUDUSD. It reviews current trends, potential risks, and target levels for each pair to help with market understanding. The key point from today’s inflation report is that persistent services inflation is the biggest issue. The 0.4% monthly rise in this category makes it hard for the Federal Reserve to ease its stance, maintaining pressure for a “higher for longer” interest rate policy. This mirrors the challenges from 2023 and 2024, when managing service inflation proved tougher than goods inflation. With the current annual inflation rate at 3.4% and a strong job market adding over 210,000 jobs in July 2025, the case for rate cuts soon is weak. We expect the Fed to keep rates steady at its next meeting.Derivative Trader Insight
For derivative traders, the recent rise in Treasury yields is a key signal. The 10-year yield rising to 4.30% shows the bond market is anticipating sustained tight policy. This situation benefits strategies that thrive on a strong US dollar, as its yield advantage over other major currencies remains significant. We predict that the dollar will attract buyers on dips in the coming weeks. Pairs like EUR/USD may struggle to maintain gains above crucial resistance levels, while USD/JPY could regain strength. Traders should look for options contracts that bet on a stable but firm dollar since major breakouts seem less likely compared to a gradual rise. The stock market’s positive initial reaction likely stems from relief that inflation was not worse than expected. However, this optimism may be fleeting, as extended high interest rates could eventually impact corporate earnings and valuations. There’s rising risk for equity markets, and traders may want to consider buying protective put options on major indices like the S&P 500. A significant risk to monitor is the potential for goods inflation to rise later this year. The current low 0.2% reading doesn’t yet account for the full effect of recently implemented trade tariffs. Any indication that these costs are being passed on to consumers could trigger renewed inflation fears and increased market volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In June 2025, Strategic Education reported a quarterly revenue of $321.47 million, showing a 3% increase.
Strategic Education reported a revenue of $321.47 million for the quarter ending in June 2025, which is a 3% increase from last year. Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.52, up from $1.33 the previous year.
While the revenue slightly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $323.39 million by -0.59%, the EPS exceeded expectations of $1.42, showing a positive surprise of +7.04%.
Regional Performance Highlights
Looking at regional results, Australia/New Zealand revenues were $69.14 million, below the expected $72.44 million, dropping 2.8% year-over-year. In contrast, Education Technology Services experienced a 49.61% revenue increase, totaling $36.69 million against a forecast of $35.2 million. The U.S. Higher Education Segment generated revenues of $215.64 million, slightly above expectations but reflecting a -0.45% annual decline. Over the last month, Strategic Education shares fell by 3.60%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite had a 2.71% increase. On the global stage, the EUR/USD pair dropped near 1.1600 as traders awaited the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points due to inflation worries, while the anticipated U.S. CPI data could influence market expectations and decisions. Although Strategic Education’s EPS beat estimates by over 7%, the stock has not performed as well as the wider market recently. This suggests that investors might be focusing more on the slight revenue miss and general economic concerns.Strategic Trading Considerations
We view the nearly 50% revenue growth in Education Technology Services as a significant and often overlooked indicator. With strong earnings, selling out-of-the-money puts could be a smart move to collect premiums while setting a lower entry point. This strategy could pay off if the stock’s recent decline is an overreaction to its mixed results. The July 2025 jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics aligns with this outlook, showing unemployment steady at 3.5% amid a high demand for skilled workers. This environment is beneficial for providers of higher education and technology reskilling, reinforcing long-term value beyond short-term revenue numbers. Nevertheless, the immediate concern is the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which has created tension in the market. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose over 22 last week, indicating widespread market anxiety before the inflation report. A high inflation reading might lead to a market-wide selloff, regardless of individual company performances. Given the lingering inflation issues from 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve is likely to respond firmly to new data. To prepare for a potential negative surprise, we might consider buying puts on a broad market index like the SPY. This would help protect a portfolio from any downturn triggered by a rate hike. For traders anticipating a notable price move in Strategic Education, but unsure of the direction, a straddle could be a good option. By purchasing both a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration date, we can profit from any significant volatility expected after the CPI release. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Cash rate reduced to 3.60% as economy stabilises, showing data reliance
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, as expected. This change shows that the economy is stabilizing, and the central bank is focusing more on overall trends rather than single data points.
There might be another rate cut in the fourth quarter, which could bring the cash rate down to 3.35%. However, if the economy takes a sudden downturn, it could lead to a series of larger rate cuts.
RBA’s Updated Forecasts
The RBA now aims for a cash rate of 2.9% by the end of 2026, a change from its earlier prediction of 3.2%. It expects the unemployment rate and trimmed mean CPI to stay at 4.3% and 2.6%, respectively, by late 2025. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has also been lowered from 2.1% to 1.7%. In a recent press conference, the RBA discussed lowering the trend productivity growth estimate to 0.7% per year. The bank plans to manage these forecasts without specific productivity targets, focusing instead on overall data trends for policy decisions. The Reserve Bank of Australia has lowered the cash rate to 3.60%, a move we anticipated. This shows that the bank is reacting to a slowing economy rather than persistent inflation. We interpret this as a clear signal that the peak of the tightening cycle from 2023 is now behind us. With another rate cut to 3.35% likely in the fourth quarter, it’s wise to prepare for lower yields. Australian 3-year government bond futures are looking attractive, as they respond most effectively to these near-term policy changes. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing a rise in July unemployment to 4.2% supports the RBA’s urgency to act soon.Effects on Currency and Markets
This cautious policy direction is expected to weaken the Australian dollar against the US dollar. With the GDP growth forecast downgraded to 1.7% for this year, we should see any increases in the AUD as a chance to sell. Weak consumer sentiment data from August highlights a lack of momentum in the domestic economy, making the currency less appealing to foreign investors. In the stock market, the situation is more balanced, presenting opportunities for volatility trades using options on the ASX 200. While lower rates generally benefit equities, the reasoning behind these cuts is due to lower productivity and growth expectations. We believe that sectors sensitive to rates, like real estate and utilities, may do well, but the broader index could lack clear direction. Looking ahead, the RBA’s projection of a 2.9% cash rate by the end of 2026 indicates that the easing cycle has further to go. This supports a long-term strategy of locking in fixed rates on interest rate swaps. This sustained dovish outlook marks a significant shift from the aggressive rate hikes seen just two years ago. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Bullard shows interest in Fed Chair position, raises concerns about inflation and independence amid growth projections
Federal Reserve official Bullard is open to becoming the next Fed Chair after a recent discussion with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He stresses the importance of keeping inflation low and stable while respecting the Fed’s independence, as defined by the Federal Reserve Act.
Bullard believes that tariffs cause only a temporary rise in prices, not ongoing inflation. He expects interest rates to drop, forecasting cuts in September and possibly later this year, totaling a 100 basis point reduction by the end of next year.
Tariffs and Economic Growth
Bullard thinks tariffs will slow economic growth, similar to how global taxes impact the world economy. However, he does not anticipate this slow growth to continue into next year. He believes that less regulation, a business-friendly atmosphere, and advancements in AI will support economic growth in the coming year. The outlook for interest rates is becoming clearer, with a possible cut as early as September 2025. We expect another rate cut later this year, leading to a total easing of 100 basis points by August 2026. This sets a predictable course for monetary policy. Bullard’s viewpoint is backed by new economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 showed inflation cooling at 2.8%, down from previous highs. Additionally, second-quarter GDP growth was revised down to a modest annualized rate of 1.5%, giving the Fed flexibility to stimulate a slowing economy. For traders, this means preparing for lower short-term rates. The SOFR futures market indicates that contracts for late 2025 and early 2026 are likely to rise. This scenario also favors a steeper yield curve since short-term rates decrease faster than long-term rates.Market Sentiments and Strategy
This situation resembles the market shift we saw in late 2023 when the Fed first suggested ending its rate hikes. Back then, the market surged in anticipation of rate cuts in 2024. We might be entering a comparable phase of reassessing prices across asset classes. With clear forward guidance, we can expect less volatility in the bond market. The MOVE Index, which tracks implied volatility in Treasury options, has dropped from over 100 to 85 earlier this year. This trend suggests selling options on interest rate futures could be a smart move for those expecting continued stability. The combination of lower rates and a pro-business climate is a positive sign for the stock market, especially for growth and tech sectors. We might explore long positions through call options on the Nasdaq 100 to benefit from the ongoing AI boom. This perspective indicates that economic growth will speed up heading into 2026. Still, we need to be cautious about the influence of tariffs, which may pose a challenge to short-term growth. This concern creates uncertainty in the market, indicating a need for protective measures. We could consider hedging our bullish equity positions in sectors most affected by global trade, such as industrials and materials. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US inflation data indicates year-on-year changes, while the stock market responds positively despite varied inflation rates.
In July 2025, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a yearly rise of 2.7%, just short of the expected 2.8%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the anticipated 3.0%. The monthly CPI met expectations at 0.2%, with an exact figure of 0.197%. The core CPI for the month was 0.3% (or 0.322% unrounded), also in line with expectations. Real weekly earnings rose by 0.4%, bouncing back from a previous drop of 0.3%.
Some notable price changes included a 2.3% increase in coffee prices and a 0.9% rise in furniture and bedding. Used cars and trucks gained 0.5% in price, recovering from a 0.7% drop the month before. On the downside, motor fuel prices fell by 2.0%, while fresh fruits dropped by 1.4%.
Stock Market Reaction
The stock market responded well, with the Dow rising by about 200 points, the NASDAQ gaining 120 points, and the S&P increasing by 43 points. Yields saw a slight decline, with the two-year yield dropping by 3 basis points to 3.716%, and the ten-year yield decreasing by 1.1 basis points to 4.261%. Following this report, the likelihood of a rate cut in September rose to 90%, up from 85%. There are also expectations for 60 basis points of cuts by the year’s end. Today’s July inflation report from August 12, 2025, indicates that the initial market reaction may have been too optimistic. While the overall inflation number cooled slightly, core year-over-year inflation ticked up to 3.1%, surpassing expectations. This persistent inflation, driven by a 0.4% monthly rise in services, is a concern for the Federal Reserve. This situation feels similar to the first half of 2024 when ongoing services inflation delayed the Fed’s shift in policy. The strong 0.4% rise in real weekly earnings could raise concerns that consumer demand is too robust for the Fed to comfortably return to its target rate of 2%. Therefore, caution is advised regarding the market’s optimistic view on rate cuts. For derivative traders, the decline in the 2-year yield to 3.71% presents an opportunity to prepare for a possible market reversal. The market currently indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, but mixed data gives Fed officials ample reason to temper those expectations at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium in late August. Buying options that profit from rising short-term rates may be a wise protection against potential hawkish surprises.Equity Market Concerns
In equity markets, the rally in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is based on the expectation of lower interest rates, but this assumption may be unstable. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has likely dropped due to this news, now trading around a low 14, indicating some complacency among investors. This environment could be ideal for buying protective put options on major indices at lower prices to hedge against downturns. Also worth noting is the weakness in categories like motor fuel and appliances, which could suggest a softening in consumer spending on certain goods. This may affect the outlook for related retail stocks. Conversely, the unexpected strength in used cars and tools might indicate that tariffs are affecting the economy, which could complicate the inflation landscape in the coming months. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Australian dollar drops below 0.6500 against the US dollar following RBA policy guidance
The AUD/USD pair has dropped sharply, trading close to the 0.6500 level during the European session. This fall comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a softer outlook, cutting its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%.
The RBA’s decision was expected, but Governor Michelle Bullock signaled that more rate cuts could follow. This has weakened the Australian Dollar, especially with labour market data set to be released on Thursday.
