The US Dollar is trading near 147.50 against the Japanese Yen as traders wait for the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report. Recent US employment data has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease rates in September. Traders are closely watching consumer inflation data for confirmation. July’s CPI is expected to show rising price pressures from tariffs. The headline CPI is predicted to rise to 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in June. The core inflation rate is forecasted to return to 3% annually. If inflation is higher than expected, it could challenge the Federal Reserve’s policymakers during a slowdown in the labor market.

Japanese Yen Vulnerability

The Japanese Yen is at risk due to uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policies. The Bank of Japan aims for a 2% inflation target and has maintained ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013, which includes negative interest rates and controlling bond yields. The Yen has weakened due to policy differences with other central banks that are raising rates. In 2024, a shift in the Bank of Japan’s policies helped stabilize the Yen, but past actions pushed inflation in Japan above the 2% target. Rising wages and global energy prices have also contributed to inflation. We are monitoring the US Dollar as it tests the 147.50 level against the Yen in light of recent economic data. The July CPI report came in at 2.9%, slightly above the expected 2.8%. This makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates easily. This inflation reading contrasts with the recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed only 155,000 jobs were added, indicating a slowing job market.

Federal Reserve Dilemma

This mixed data presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve and creates uncertainty for traders. The market still expects a rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September. However, that belief is shaky. Derivative traders may want to adopt strategies that benefit from rising volatility, like straddles, while the market discusses the Fed’s next steps. On the other side, the Japanese Yen remains weak due to the Bank of Japan’s indecision over policy. Even after significant policy changes in 2024, Japan’s inflation rate stays at 2.6%, consistently above the bank’s 2% target. The Bank of Japan seems hesitant to tighten policies, which keeps pressure on the Yen. This situation is reminiscent of late 2022 and 2023, when significant differences between US and Japanese interest rates pushed the Yen lower. Though the gap has narrowed, the central theme of policy divergence continues to influence the market. Given this, we see value in buying call options on the USD/JPY pair, betting on further gains if US inflation data leads the Fed to delay its planned rate cuts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar has seen a small decline, with the DXY index at 98.29. Analysts are considering several recent events, including Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran, as factors influencing the USD. Miran may have an impact during upcoming FOMC meetings, even though his term is short. There are three FOMC meetings planned for September, October, and December. Some officials are leaning towards dovish positions, which could be affecting market views.

The US Consumer Price Index Report

This week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to be very important. If the results are weaker than anticipated, the USD could be negatively affected. Technical analysis shows that bullish momentum is slowing, with the RSI declining. Important support levels are at 98 and 97.20, while resistance levels are at 99.50 and 100.50. There are ongoing uncertainties to watch, such as discussions between the US and Russia and changes in UK monetary policy. The Bank of England recently lowered rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down to 4%. Meanwhile, EUR/USD continues to gain due to a weaker USD, as everyone focuses on the upcoming US CPI data. Gold prices have decreased, fueled by positive global expectations for US-Russia talks. As of August 11, 2025, we see similarities to past situations where the dollar was sensitive. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently around 104.50, much higher than the figures from the late 2010s. However, the latest July CPI report came in lower than anticipated at 2.8%, showing renewed weakness in the dollar.

Spotlight on The Federal Reserve

This situation highlights the Federal Reserve’s next steps, with FOMC meetings scheduled for September, November, and December. Unlike the dovish shifts in years past, the Fed has kept its key rate stable in a 4.75% to 5.00% range for most of 2025 after dealing with high inflation in 2022-2023. Traders should pay close attention for any changes in tone since even a slight hint of a dovish shift could worsen the dollar’s decline. For derivative traders, this suggests preparing for possible dollar weakness or increased market volatility. Buying put options on the UUP (the dollar index ETF) could be a direct way to leverage a drop towards the 103 support level. Alternatively, selling out-of-the-money call spreads could allow us to earn premium while betting the dollar’s potential upside is limited. In currency markets, EUR/USD has shown strength, recently rising to 1.0750. This gain is primarily due to a weaker US dollar but is amplified by signals from the European Central Bank indicating it may continue to raise rates. This divergence in policy makes going long on the EUR/USD an appealing strategy for the coming weeks. We can also learn from how other central banks have reacted in various situations, such as the Bank of England’s adjustments. The UK is currently facing its own inflation challenges, with the BoE rate at 5.25% and no signs of cuts until 2026. This global backdrop of high rates makes the Fed’s upcoming choices even more critical for currency markets. Gold is currently stable around $2,150 per ounce, caught between two opposing forces. High global interest rates typically put pressure on non-yielding gold, but ongoing geopolitical tensions are providing strong support. We believe that any significant drop in the dollar or real yields could trigger a surge in gold prices, pushing them to new highs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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On the morning of August 11, 2025, European markets were mostly quiet. Investors were being cautious as they awaited the important US CPI report. Notable statistics included Italy’s final HICP for July at 1.7%, which stayed the same as the preliminary results, and SNB total sight deposits at CHF 465.9 billion. A Bank of America survey indicated that the biggest concern for investors was trade war risks at 29%, with inflation following closely at 27%. The dollar held steady, even though it was vulnerable after last week’s drops. Major currencies moved little; EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1625 and GBP/USD declined 0.2% to 1.3425. Conversely, USD/JPY rose by 0.1% to 147.88, and USD/CAD increased by 0.2% to 1.3780. In the stock market, European indices and US futures remained mostly unchanged as everyone awaited the US inflation figures.

Cryptocurrencies And Commodities

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum started the day off strong, buoyed by weekend gains. Bitcoin climbed 0.9% to $120,382, and Ethereum hit $4,300, although these gains have since tapered. Gold dipped 1.3% to $3,352.64 as traders looked for updates on US tariffs. Meanwhile, WTI crude rose by 0.5% to $64.19. As we wait for the US inflation report tomorrow, the market is in a holding pattern. Last month’s Core CPI for July 2025 was stuck at 3.8%, and this upcoming report could influence market direction for the quarter ahead. Derivative traders should gear up for increased volatility after the announcement. There’s a noteworthy caution regarding potential declines in equities over the next three months. This suggests that purchasing protective puts on the S&P 500 could be a wise move to guard against a short-term drop. A similar situation occurred in spring 2024 when inflation worries caused a brief market dip, followed by a strong recovery. The volatility index, or VIX, is currently around 18, indicating that fear is not extreme at the moment. This means options aren’t overly expensive for those wanting to take a directional bet on the CPI data. A straddle—buying both a call and a put option—could help profit from a significant price change in either direction.

Gold and Currency Market

Gold is retreating from its highs while we wait for clarity about US tariffs and the dollar’s direction. This price stabilization is reminiscent of the late 2024 period before gold surged past $3,000. Traders might use options to navigate this range or set up for the next big move based on inflation data. In the currency market, the US dollar is at a crucial point after its fall last week. If tomorrow’s inflation numbers are lower than expected, the dollar may dip, benefiting pairs like EUR/USD. Using options on currency ETFs could be an easy way to position for this likely scenario. The summer of cryptocurrencies continues with Bitcoin trading above $120,000, showing strong momentum. Given the high volatility, using options to manage risk may be smarter than trading futures with high leverage. This way, traders can participate in potential gains while limiting losses if the market suddenly changes course. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Trump wants China to increase its soybean purchases from the U.S. by four times. Both countries are trying to reach a middle ground in ongoing trade talks, but real progress is hard to find. After the Phase One trade deal in 2018/19, China reduced its soybean imports from the U.S., and even after the agreement, purchases never bounced back.

Trade Dynamics

By 2020, China mainly sourced soybeans from Brazil, ignoring actual trade numbers. Although China promised to buy record amounts of U.S. soybeans, it fulfilled only about 58% of its commitments under the trade deal. This ongoing pattern indicates that trade dynamics remain stable, and any agreements might be overlooked or canceled after Trump’s presidency. While Trump uses trade deals for political leverage, China’s actions show that it benefits more, resulting in few real concessions. Market reactions might mirror past behaviors, where actual trade data becomes less important. If both countries maintain a friendly image, worries about geopolitics and trade could lessen, helping to stabilize risk sentiment. As of today, August 11, 2025, we see a familiar trend in China’s soybean demands. This situation resembles what we saw during Trump’s first term. History tells us that large promises in trade often do not lead to consistent purchases. In 2025, China’s customs data from July shows soybean imports from Brazil are up 15% compared to last year. Meanwhile, USDA reports indicate U.S. soybean commitments to China are nearly 30% lower than before the initial trade war. This data confirms China’s shift towards South American suppliers is solid.

Market Opportunities

For those trading soybean futures, any price increase from these announcements may be short-lived. If a rally occurs due to political statements instead of actual shipping orders, it may be a chance to adopt bearish positions. These headlines are just noise, not a real change in demand for U.S. beans. The trend of talking without action suggests selling volatility after price spikes driven by news. When news strikes and implied volatility on soybean futures (ZS) rises, it often pays to bet on it returning to normal. The market structure isn’t really changing, so sustained fear is unlikely. As long as both sides are just talking, we can anticipate limited risk-off sentiment in the overall market. This creates opportunities for range-bound strategies on equity indices sensitive to trade news. The market seems satisfied as long as no new harmful tariffs are being put into place. We witnessed a similar situation from 2019 to 2020. Initial market enthusiasm over trade announcements frequently faded when the monthly trade data showed China was not keeping up with its promises. Betting against these headline-driven rallies was the right strategy then, and the current setup looks much the same. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) are currently at 6,423, showing a small increase of 0.15% since Friday’s close. Today’s trading has been narrow, fluctuating between 6,408.5 and 6,429.5, with a peak of 6,468.6 marking the 50-week high. The TradeCompass reading indicates that prices above 6,422 suggest a bullish trend due to their alignment with VWAP and Point of Control. Daily trading movements indicate few opportunities, lacking major events to drive significant changes. Bullish traders can set profit targets at 6,425, 6,428, and 6,430, with a final goal of 6,434.5, while aiming for a longer-term target of 6,464. For bearish traders, key levels to watch are 6,416, 6,414, 6,406, 6,400, and 6,384.

Understanding VWAP and Trading Metrics

VWAP is the key benchmark for “fair value” in intraday trading. Standard deviations provide insights into market volatility and help traders anticipate reversals. When combined with the Value Area High and Point of Control, these metrics reveal areas where institutions are actively trading. TradeCompass recommends maintaining discipline, suggesting only one trade in each direction per session. Adjust your stop-loss after realizing the second profit. This approach offers guidance but is not a direct trading signal. As of today, August 11th, 2025, S&P 500 futures are tightly trading around 6,423. The market is just above the 6,422 pivot point, which keeps the short-term outlook bullish. However, with the 50-week high of 6,468.6 close by, the market appears uncertain about any strong upward movements. In the coming weeks, traders should expect range-bound conditions and lower volatility. Current tight price movement indicates that the market is awaiting a significant catalyst, especially since there are no major economic events scheduled this week. This is supported by the Volatility Index (VIX), which is hovering around a low of 14, indicating minimal fear in the market.

Strategic Market Observations

The recent July CPI report, which was slightly above expectations at 3.1%, has increased uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next actions, conflicting with a strong July jobs report that reflects ongoing economic strength. This mixed data is why the market is stuck in a tight range between 6,416 and 6,428. In this environment, strategies that benefit from sideways movement may be effective. Selling option premiums through strategies like iron condors might be viable as long as the market stays between the key bearish markers of 6,416 and the intraday target of 6,430. A similar period of low-volume trading occurred in August 2023 before the Jackson Hole meeting. Traders looking for a bullish breakout should monitor movements above 6,435. If the market moves towards the bullish target of 6,464, it could be stimulated by unexpectedly positive economic news. Long call options or call spreads would offer a defined-risk method to capitalize on such a movement. Conversely, a drop below 6,416 could shift the focus to bearish targets, like the psychological level of 6,400. Attention will be on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for clues about future monetary policies. A hawkish statement from the Fed could easily trigger downward movements, making protective puts a sensible choice. For now, the best strategy is to trade tactically around established levels, taking quick partial profits at the first or second target. Stick to one trade in each direction per session to avoid getting caught in choppy movements. This is a time for steady gains rather than big wins until a clearer trend appears. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Traders are eager for two major announcements tomorrow: the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Key information that will affect the Australian Dollar (AUD) includes the Australian Wage Price Index and employment report. Recently, the US Dollar (USD) has lost strength due to disappointing data from the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The market now expects a decrease of 58 basis points in rates by the end of the year, up from the previous forecast of 35 basis points.

Focus On Inflation Data

The US CPI report is attracting attention. Many now believe a rate cut could happen in September unless inflation data suggests otherwise. For the AUD, inflation has decreased, leading to a possible RBA rate cut tomorrow. If labor market data shows further weakness, markets predict at least two more cuts by the end of the year. Looking at AUDUSD technical analysis, the daily chart shows prices are between two key levels. The 4-hour chart displays a small upward trendline, while the 1-hour chart shows trading near a minor support zone. If the price falls below current support, sellers might target the 0.6485 support level. Key upcoming events include the RBA’s rate decision, US CPI, Australian Wage Price Index, and employment data. These developments are expected to significantly influence market sentiment and future predictions. We are preparing for a busy week focused on the US inflation report and the RBA’s rate decision tomorrow. The US dollar has struggled since the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, which revealed a disappointing figure of 155k, changing expectations for rate cuts.

Expectations And Strategies

The market is now anticipating a higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end, with fed funds futures suggesting almost a 70% likelihood of a September move. Following a small dip in core inflation in June 2025, another weak CPI tomorrow would likely encourage a dovish message from the Fed at Jackson Hole later this month. We believe a surprisingly high inflation figure, above 0.4% month-over-month, would be needed to change this outlook. On the Australian front, we expect a rate cut from the RBA tomorrow, a move the markets have already priced in. This follows the latest data showing second-quarter 2025 inflation dropped to an annual rate of 3.1%, continuing the downtrend from the previous quarter. Market reaction will depend on the RBA’s guidance for future cuts. For derivative traders, this situation creates the potential for increased volatility. Buying short-dated straddles or strangles on AUDUSD, set to expire just after this week’s data, could be a smart way to prepare for sharp price movements in either direction. This strategy benefits from significant swings, whether caused by the RBA or the US CPI. Currently, 1-week implied volatility for AUDUSD options has risen to over 14%, much higher than the 9% average during July 2025. This suggests a breakout is likely, but also makes buying options more costly. Selling options could be risky now but may become a good strategy if key events conclude without major changes in direction. From a tactical view, the technical levels indicate clear strikes for option trades. A drop below the 0.6512 support level could activate put options, targeting strikes around 0.6485 or lower. On the other hand, traders with call options will hope that this support holds firm, allowing them to push towards higher resistance levels. Looking ahead, Australian employment figures and US retail sales data later this week will play a vital role in establishing any new trends. This data will impact pricing for options with longer expirations, such as those in September and October. Continued weakness in both economies could lead to a range-bound scenario for the currency pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Citi has revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,600, up from 6,300 for 2025. Even though the third quarter may bring challenges, AI-driven stocks are expected to greatly support Wall Street. Other companies, like Goldman Sachs, have also raised their S&P 500 forecasts to 6,600, while Oppenheimer predicts it could reach 7,100. Overall, market sentiment looks positive, with many expecting growth.

Focus on Call Options

With major firms aiming for 6,600 by the end of the year, it might be wise to consider buying call options to benefit from this anticipated rise. As it is now mid-August, contracts that expire in December 2025 provide a good mix of time and potential profit. This will allow us to join in the expected rally through the year’s end. The market is showing strong signs, with the S&P 500 up over 18% year-to-date, recently surpassing the 6,150 mark. This upward movement is driven by the AI sector, where leading companies beat Q2 earnings estimates by an average of 12%. Furthermore, the July CPI report came in at a mild 2.9%, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to raise rates and disrupt this trend. Of course, we must also consider the possibility of a slower third quarter. To manage this risk, we can hedge our long positions by buying shorter-term put options, possibly with September or October 2025 expirations. Since the VIX is around a low 14 currently, this type of protection for our portfolio is not too costly. We should direct our strategies toward the AI-driven stocks fueling this market. Using call spreads on leading technology ETFs is a smart, cost-effective way to bet on their continued strength. Selling cash-secured puts on strong AI stocks after any slight dips is another strategy to express a positive outlook while collecting some premium.

Historical Market Trends

This scenario feels reminiscent of late 2023, when the market slowed in the summer months before rallying strongly into the new year. It seems wise to brace for some short-term weakness while maintaining a positive outlook for the fourth quarter. This approach allows us to manage risk during the typically slower months of August and September. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices have dropped by more than 1% at the start of the week. Last week, COMEX futures jumped due to news that the US customs agency might levy tariffs on gold, but the spot market stayed stable. Traders are now waiting for clarity from the White House amidst ongoing uncertainty about these tariffs. Even with the confusion, traders are assessing how this situation might impact the market. If the tariffs are confirmed, it will raise questions about the US’s intentions. Currently, COMEX futures are retreating from their recent spike, with the gap between COMEX and LME futures narrowing to about $60, similar to levels before the surge.

Key Price Levels

Gold prices have moderated at the spot level, dropping below the 100-hour moving average. The 1% decline draws attention to the 200-hour moving average, around $3,352. Holding above this level maintains a neutral outlook, but dropping below could shift focus towards sellers. Gold has been consolidating since May, waiting for a break from this phase. An upward move may find resistance in the $3,435-$3,450 range, while downward risks center around the 100-day moving average at $3,292. A significant drop below this level could signal a deeper correction. As of August 11, 2025, the key issue for gold is the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Last week’s increase in COMEX futures was a quick reaction to unconfirmed rumors, and prices are now easing as initial panic fades. This uncertainty opens doors in the derivatives market, especially concerning volatility. The spread between COMEX and London futures has tightened from over $120 to around $60, indicating the speculative excitement is waning. This suggests that betting on short-term volatility using options might be wiser than making long-term directional bets.

Market Sentiment

The economic landscape adds to the uncertainty, as the Consumer Price Index data from July 2025 showed a rise of 3.1%, slightly above expectations. This supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious position from its recent meeting, likely preventing any major price surges for now. Thus, making large bets on gold futures appears risky until clearer signals emerge. In the near term, we are monitoring the 200-hour moving average at $3,352 as a critical pivot point. A decisive break below this could lead to more selling, making short-dated put options an appealing strategy. If prices maintain above this level, the market will stay in a neutral state. Looking at the broader picture, gold has been trapped in a range since May 2025. The most significant support level remains the 100-day moving average at $3,292. We haven’t seen a substantial break below this since October 2023, marking it as a critical line for a larger correction. Sentiment in the options market shows this caution, as the put-to-call ratio for gold has reached a three-month high. This indicates that traders are increasingly buying protection against a potential drop below the key support of $3,292, suggesting a bearish trend in positioning for the weeks ahead. For those seeking upside potential, a breakthrough above the recent highs of $3,435-$3,450 is necessary to indicate renewed bullish momentum. Only then would buying call options targeting the $3,500 mark makes sense. Until that happens, the market appears to favor sellers or those expecting continued consolidation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The GBPUSD pair has seen recent gains due to a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and a more aggressive stance from the Bank of England (BoE). The US dollar has weakened after the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, with markets now anticipating a 58 basis point easing by the end of the year, up from 35 basis points. Now, all eyes are on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Recent comments indicate a potential rate cut in September, unless high inflation data or a strong September NFP report suggests otherwise. For the GBP, the BoE has made a hawkish cut, reaching a majority after two voting rounds—marking a first. Inflation forecasts have been adjusted upwards, and the BoE acknowledges that inflation continues to be a major concern.

Technical Overview

Technically, GBPUSD is close to a significant downward trendline, with sellers targeting a drop to the 1.3140 level. On the 4-hour chart, a minor upward trendline supports bullish momentum. Key upcoming events include UK employment data and US CPI, along with other reports like UK GDP and US Retail Sales throughout the week. Attention will also be on further comments from the Fed after the US CPI figures. The pound is rising against the dollar due to different signals from the central banks. The recent NFP report in the US led the markets to expect more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the Bank of England is showing concern about inflation, driving upward pressure on the pair. The BoE’s cautious approach makes sense when we look at the data from August 2025. UK core inflation hasn’t fallen significantly and was at 3.5% for July. Additionally, second-quarter wage growth was strong at 5.8%. Historically, core inflation has been above 3% since 2021, making the BoE’s job particularly challenging.

Market Sentiment and Strategies

Conversely, the dollar has weakened since the July Non-Farm Payrolls report showed only 150,000 jobs added—below expectations. Now, the markets are pricing in 58 basis points of Fed cuts by year’s end, a significant change from just weeks ago. The upcoming US CPI report on August 12th is expected to be a crucial event that could influence this outlook. As the pair tests a major trendline, traders should consider strategies to manage risk during this data-heavy week. Purchasing call options with a strike price above the current trendline could be a strategy to target a breakout towards the 1.3590 level. This allows potential upside while limiting the maximum loss to the premium paid. On the other hand, traders who believe the trendline will hold or expect a surprisingly high US inflation report may opt for put options. This would position them for potential rejection at this critical technical level and a decline back toward the 1.3140 support. This strategy also limits risk if the pound keeps rising unexpectedly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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As of July 20, 2025, Ethereum’s price is considered bullish if it stays above $4,265. If it drops below $4,235, the sentiment becomes bearish. Currently, the price is at $4,298. The main target is $4,400, and Ethereum futures are up, which boosts returns through leverage. On Friday, Ethereum saw big gains, hitting a high of $4,375. It’s currently trading around $4,300, but it needs to break through the resistance at $4,374 to reach $4,400 and possibly $4,465. TradeCompass uses VWAP, Value Areas, and Liquidity Pools to help traders make informed decisions and minimize risk. For partial bullish profit-taking, targets include $4,282, $4,299, $4,318, $4,331, $4,367, and $4,400, with a further target of $4,463. Bearish profit targets are set at $4,210.5, $4,162.5, $4,103.5, and $4,001.5, with strict management recommended. TradeCompass promotes disciplined trading, preventing overtrading by encouraging partial exits and strategic stop placements. Recently, Ethereum’s market share has increased compared to Bitcoin, thanks to its strong brand and positive momentum. Looking back to late July, the bullish plan worked well. The primary target of $4,400 was reached, and the market even tested $4,465 at the end of the month. This confirmed that institutional interest around the VWAP and liquidity pools was strong. Now, in the second week of August, the market is in a consolidation phase following the rally. Ethereum is trading around $4,150, testing important support levels after being unable to hold the highs. Recent data shows that Ethereum futures open interest has dropped from over $15 billion in late July to about $13.8 billion, indicating some profit-taking. In early August, more ETH moved onto major exchanges, hinting at a shift from buying to selling among traders. This suggests that aggressive bullish momentum has slowed, especially after uncertainty from a U.S. regulatory hearing on digital asset custody last week. For those trading derivatives, levels from July have flipped. The previous bullish entry point of $4,265 is now a critical resistance level to monitor. A clear breakout above this price is needed for buyers to regain momentum. This price action is reminiscent of the summer of 2021 when a strong rally led to sideways movement before the next big trend. Even with the recent pullback, Ethereum has kept most of its gains from its earlier outperformance against Bitcoin this year. In the short term, traders should shift their focus from chasing trends to trading within the established range. It might be better to sell options premiums or set alerts at the boundaries of this range instead of making aggressive trades. Patience is essential as the market figures out whether this is just a pause before another rise or the start of a larger pullback.

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