Gold prices in the Philippines were broadly unchanged on Thursday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at PHP 9,064.32 per gram, compared with PHP 9,062.71 on Wednesday.

Gold was also quoted at PHP 105,723.80 per tola, up from PHP 105,705.70 a day earlier. Other listed prices were PHP 90,642.66 for 10 grams and PHP 281,932.20 per troy ounce.

How Local Gold Prices Are Calculated

FXStreet calculates local gold prices by converting international prices using USD/PHP and applying local units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local rates may vary slightly.

Gold is commonly used as a store of value and a medium of exchange, and it is also used in jewellery. It is often treated as a safe-haven asset and as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold and use it to diversify reserves. They added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total on record, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and it can also move opposite to risk assets such as shares. Prices can react to geopolitical risks, recession concerns, interest rates, and US Dollar movements, as gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

What To Watch Next In Gold

We see the current stability in gold prices as a consolidation, not a lack of direction. This pause comes after a strong performance last year, where gold saw a nearly 13% gain in 2025, building on the momentum from previous years. Traders should view this flat trading as a potential opportunity before the next significant price movement.

The primary driver for gold in the coming weeks will be expectations surrounding interest rate policy. With recent data showing a cooling economy, the market is now pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of 2026. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes significantly more attractive when interest rates are expected to fall.

We are also watching the continued, systematic buying from central banks, which creates a solid price floor. After adding over 1,037 tonnes in 2023 and maintaining a historically aggressive pace through 2024 and 2025, emerging market banks show no signs of slowing their acquisitions. This persistent demand provides a strong underlying support level that limits downside risk for traders.

Furthermore, inflation remains a concern, holding stubbornly above the 3% mark in the latest U.S. consumer price reports. This environment, combined with lingering geopolitical tensions, reinforces gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against currency devaluation. Investors are increasingly looking for protection that riskier assets like stocks cannot provide.

Given these factors, we should consider positioning for a move higher in the next two to three months. A practical approach would be to buy call options, which allow for upside participation while clearly defining risk. We believe looking at strike prices approximately 5-7% above the current market level offers a favorable balance of probability and potential reward.

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Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index was 33.3 in March. This was below the forecast of 38.

The result indicates weaker consumer sentiment than expected. No further breakdown was provided in the update.

Implications For Household Spending

The sharp drop in Japan’s March consumer confidence to 33.3, far below the expected 38, signals significant concern among households. This pessimism will likely translate into reduced consumer spending over the next few months. We should anticipate this weakness to impact upcoming retail sales and GDP figures.

This weak domestic outlook makes it highly improbable that the Bank of Japan will consider raising interest rates soon. With the US Federal Reserve rate holding firm around 4.5% as of early April 2026, the wide interest rate differential continues to favour the US dollar. Therefore, we should view this data as a trigger to short the yen, likely through buying USD/JPY call options.

For equities, the data is a clear negative for the Nikkei 225, particularly for consumer-focused stocks like retailers and automakers. With earnings season approaching, this sentiment slump suggests potential downward revisions for companies reliant on domestic demand. We should consider buying Nikkei put options as a direct way to position for a potential market correction.

This kind of data surprise often increases market volatility. Recent statistics show the Nikkei Volatility Index has already ticked up to 18.5, and this report could push it higher. From our perspective in 2025, we saw how currency intervention in 2024 caused sharp, unpredictable swings, so using options to define our risk is a prudent strategy in this environment.

Options Based Risk Management

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Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates were broadly unchanged on Thursday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at AED 557.44 per gram, compared with AED 557.37 on Wednesday.

Gold was at AED 6,501.84 per tola, up from AED 6,501.11 a day earlier. Other listed prices were AED 5,574.38 for 10 grams and AED 17,338.20 per troy ounce.

Uae Gold Price Snapshot

FXStreet converts international gold prices into AED using the USD/AED rate and local units. The figures are updated daily at publication time and are for reference, as local prices may vary slightly.

Gold has long been used as a store of value and a medium of exchange, and it is also used in jewellery. It is commonly used as a safe-haven asset and as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness.

Central banks hold the most gold and may buy it to diversify reserves. They added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total on record, with China, India and Turkey increasing reserves.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also fall when stock markets rise. Prices can be affected by geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and US Dollar strength.

Drivers And Strategy Outlook

With gold prices holding steady near record highs, we see this as a period of consolidation before the next potential move higher. The metal’s role as a safe-haven asset is providing strong support, creating a solid base for future price action. Derivative traders should view this stability not as a lack of direction, but as a buildup of tension in the market.

The primary driver for gold in the coming weeks will be the shifting expectations around U.S. interest rates and the corresponding effect on the dollar. Following the slightly cooler-than-expected March 2026 inflation report, which showed the Consumer Price Index at 2.9%, the probability of a summer rate cut from the Federal Reserve has increased to over 60%. This outlook is weighing on the U.S. Dollar, which has an inverse relationship with gold, making the precious metal more attractive.

We are also watching the persistent buying from central banks, which continues to put a floor under the price. Following the record purchases we saw through much of 2025, recent data indicates that emerging market central banks, particularly the People’s Bank of China, added another 25 tonnes to their reserves in March 2026. This consistent demand from large, price-insensitive buyers is a powerful bullish signal that should not be ignored.

Geopolitical instability is another key factor supporting the metal, reminding us of the flare-ups that caused market turbulence in late 2025. Renewed tensions in key global shipping lanes are prompting investors to seek safety, a role gold has historically played well during turbulent times. Any escalation in these conflicts will likely trigger a flight to quality, directly benefiting gold prices.

Given these factors, we believe using options to construct bullish positions is the most prudent strategy. We are seeing increased interest in call options and bull call spreads with June and July 2026 expiries, targeting strike prices of $2,500 and above. This approach allows traders to position for potential upside while defining their risk in a market that remains sensitive to macroeconomic data releases.

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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said real interest rates are clearly negative, Reuters reported on Thursday. He said short- and medium-term interest rates are also clearly negative.

He said Japan’s financial conditions remain accommodative. He said this has led to a moderate rise in capital expenditure.

Negative Real Rates And A Weak Yen Backdrop

At the time of reporting, USD/JPY was up 0.10% on the day at 158.73.

We remember when these comments about negative real rates were made back in 2024, a time when financial conditions were extremely loose. That environment pushed the USD/JPY pair to historic highs near 160, creating a very different trading landscape than we see today. The core challenge then was navigating a persistently weak yen.

Those accommodative conditions fueled a massive and profitable yen carry trade, as the interest rate difference between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan was over 5 percentage points. Traders were borrowing yen for virtually nothing and investing in higher-yielding dollar assets. This one-sided trade created momentum but also built up significant risks of a reversal.

The approach of the 160 level in USD/JPY during that period in 2024 caused extreme market nervousness and a spike in currency volatility. Options traders should recall how one-month implied volatility surged above 10% as the market braced for government action. This highlights the ongoing need to use options to manage the risk of sudden, sharp moves.

Managing Intervention Risk With Derivatives

We saw firsthand how risky shorting the yen was when the Ministry of Finance directly intervened in the market. In April and May of 2024, authorities spent approximately ¥9.8 trillion to buy yen, causing immediate and sharp drops in USD/JPY. Any derivatives strategy must account for the possibility of such official action when the currency weakens significantly.

Since that time, the Bank of Japan has officially moved away from its negative interest rate policy, starting with its first rate hike in 17 years back in March 2024. This was followed by a couple of cautious quarter-point hikes through 2025 as inflation proved stubborn, staying above the 2% target. The policy direction has fundamentally, if slowly, started to change.

In the coming weeks, traders should use derivatives to position for a continued, gradual normalization of BoJ policy, not a sudden shock. Look at interest rate swaps to bet on the timing of the next BoJ rate increase, which markets are now pricing in for the third quarter. Consequently, holding long-yen positions through call options is becoming a more viable strategy than it has been for years.

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Gold prices in Pakistan were broadly unchanged on Thursday, based on figures compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at PKR 42,347.61 per gram, compared with PKR 42,343.80 on Wednesday.

Per tola, gold stood at PKR 493,934.20, up from PKR 493,889.80 a day earlier. FXStreet also listed PKR 423,476.10 for 10 grams and PKR 1,317,159.00 per troy ounce.

How FXStreet Calculates Local Gold Prices

FXStreet estimates local gold prices by converting international rates using USD/PKR and local measurement units. The figures are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local prices may vary slightly.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. World Gold Council data shows central banks added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total since records began.

Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets such as equities. Its price can be affected by geopolitical events, recession risks, interest rates, and shifts in the US Dollar, as it is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

While local gold prices are showing stability, we are focused on the global price, which is reacting to conflicting economic signals. The inverse correlation between gold and the US Dollar remains the most critical factor, with the Dollar Index recently strengthening on renewed interest rate concerns. This dynamic is creating tension in the market that derivative traders can position for.

Central Bank Buying And Strategy Implications

We look at the massive central bank purchases seen in recent years, such as the record 1,037 tonnes added in 2023, as a continuation of the trend that started back in 2022. This persistent buying, particularly from emerging economies which we saw continue throughout 2025, provides a strong floor under the gold price. This suggests that selling out-of-the-money puts or implementing bull put spreads could be a viable strategy to capitalize on this underlying support.

The primary driver for the coming weeks will be US inflation data and its effect on interest rate policy, as gold is a yield-less asset. After the Federal Reserve enacted several rate cuts in 2025, the most recent March 2026 inflation report came in higher than expected at 3.1%, surprising markets. This has pushed expectations for further rate cuts back, creating significant uncertainty and making long volatility plays like straddles on gold ETFs an interesting proposition.

Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset continues to be relevant due to lingering geopolitical instability in several parts of the world. This consistent background risk provides a buffer against sharp sell-offs, even when interest rate expectations turn against the precious metal. We see this as a reason to avoid overly bearish positions, as any escalation in global tensions could trigger a rapid flight to safety.

Considering these factors, the market appears caught between strong central bank support and hawkish interest rate pressure. This environment is ideal for strategies that profit from a defined price range, such as selling an iron condor, to collect premium as long as gold does not make a significant breakout. The key will be to watch if the price breaks decisively in response to the next major economic data release.

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Gold prices in India were broadly unchanged on Thursday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at INR 14,172.22 per gram, compared with INR 14,170.15 on Wednesday.

Gold was listed at INR 165,302.00 per tola, up from INR 165,277.80 a day earlier. Other reference prices were INR 141,722.20 for 10 grams and INR 440,803.30 per troy ounce.

Indian Gold Price Reference Levels

FXStreet derives Indian gold prices by converting international prices using USD/INR and applying local measurement units. The figures are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local rates may vary slightly.

Central banks are the largest holders of gold. According to the World Gold Council, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase since records began.

The current stability in gold prices around ₹14,170 per gram presents a period of consolidation. For derivative traders, this sideways movement could be the calm before a more significant price swing. This suggests that now is a critical time to evaluate underlying market drivers for the next move.

We continue to see strong underlying support from central banks, a trend that accelerated after the record buying of 2022 and persisted through 2025. Central banks globally added another 1,037 tonnes in 2023 and maintained a strong pace of purchases throughout 2024 and 2025, providing a solid floor under the market. This consistent demand should limit the potential downside for traders considering selling futures or buying put options.

Key Macro Drivers To Watch

The market is still pricing in the effects of the monetary policy shift we saw from the US Federal Reserve back in 2025. With expectations for further rate cuts later this year to support a slowing economy, the appeal of a non-yielding asset like gold increases. This macroeconomic backdrop suggests that buying call options or long futures contracts could be a favorable strategy in the coming weeks.

Lingering inflation concerns, stemming from the stubborn price pressures of 2025, also bolster gold’s appeal as a store of value. The inverse correlation with a weakening US Dollar, which has been softening since the Fed signaled its policy pivot, provides another tailwind. This environment suggests that any price dips should be seen as potential entry points for bullish positions.

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NZD/USD rose to about 0.5830 in early European trading on Thursday, moving above 0.5800. The New Zealand dollar strengthened after a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

The RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% at its April meeting on Wednesday. Governor Anna Breman said higher oil prices are cutting household purchasing power and squeezing business profit margins, supporting a “wait and see” approach.

Rbnz Signals Stronger Growth Potential

Breman said on Thursday that New Zealand could see stronger growth this year if the Middle East conflict ends soon. She also said earlier rate cuts are still adding stimulus to the economy.

Middle East tensions may support the US dollar as a safe-haven. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US had breached the ceasefire terms, after Israel launched a large-scale campaign across Lebanon that killed over 250 people.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the ceasefire between the US and Iran does not cover operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

As we look at the situation today, April 9, 2026, it is useful to remember a similar setup around this time last year. In April 2025, we saw the Reserve Bank of New Zealand deliver a hawkish hold on its cash rate, which was then only 2.25%. That move was undermined by Middle East tensions, which provided a safe-haven bid for the US Dollar.

Volatility Becomes The Core Trade

The context now is vastly different and highlights the challenges from last year. The RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate is currently sitting at a much more restrictive 5.50%, a level it has maintained for over a year to combat stubborn inflation. Statistics New Zealand reported earlier this year that quarterly inflation, while easing, remains at 4.0%, still double the bank’s target midpoint.

This ongoing conflict between a hawkish RBNZ and global risk-off sentiment creates significant volatility. Looking back, after the events of April 2025, the NZD/USD pair saw a sharp increase in price swings over the following weeks. We are seeing similar conditions now, with 3-month implied volatility for the pair ticking up to over 11%, suggesting traders are pricing in larger future movements.

The geopolitical risks we saw in 2025 have since evolved but continue to support the US Dollar. Persistent disruptions to global shipping and ongoing strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific are weighing on risk sentiment. This provides a steady, underlying demand for the greenback that caps any significant strength in the New Zealand dollar.

For derivative traders, this environment signals an opportunity in volatility rather than direction. With the NZD/USD exchange rate having already fallen by nearly 3% in the first quarter of 2026, betting on a clear upward trend is risky. A better approach may be to use options strategies like long straddles or strangles, which profit from a large price move in either direction without needing to predict which way it will go.

Given that the RBNZ is committed to its high rates and geopolitical uncertainty is unlikely to fade, the key drivers from last year remain in play but are now magnified. Therefore, traders should position for continued choppiness and the potential for sharp, sudden moves. Selling options further out of the money to collect premium could also be considered, but only with strict risk management for sudden geopolitical flare-ups.

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USD/CAD rose after three days of falls, trading near 1.3860 in Asian hours on Thursday. The move followed renewed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar amid uncertainty over a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, released on Wednesday, showed a wait-and-see approach. Policymakers broadly supported keeping rates unchanged, with nearly all participants backing no change and many judging policy near a neutral range.

Oil Prices And Cad Support

The pair’s rise may be limited if the Canadian Dollar gains support from higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate was trading around $91.50, after Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Iranian officials said recent events breached the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal and said it was “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal.

US Vice President JD Vance said the strait could start reopening. He is leading a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

Looking back at this period in 2025, we saw USD/CAD caught between two powerful forces. The US Dollar was finding a bid from geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire talks. At the same time, that same tension was driving up oil prices, which in turn supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

Volatility Strategy For Usdcad

This dynamic created significant volatility, which is a derivative trader’s best friend. We saw West Texas Intermediate crude briefly spike to over $95 per barrel in mid-2025 following those Strait of Hormuz fears, which ultimately capped the upside in USD/CAD and pushed it back toward 1.3700. This serves as a reminder of how quickly commodity strength can override simple safe-haven currency flows.

In the coming weeks, we should be looking to buy volatility rather than picking a firm direction. The situation last year showed that geopolitical headlines can cause sharp, unpredictable swings in both directions. Purchasing options, such as straddles or strangles on USD/CAD, allows us to profit from a large move regardless of whether it’s up or down.

Current implied volatility for at-the-money USD/CAD options is trading near a one-year low of 6.8%, which seems too cheap given the lessons from 2025. With the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve both expected to diverge on interest rate policy later this year, a catalyst for a breakout is building. We should consider buying options now before the market starts pricing in this potential for sharp moves.

We must also pay close attention to the oil market, as WTI crude is a primary driver for the Canadian Dollar. The strong positive correlation between oil prices and the CAD, which reached over 0.75 during the tensions last year, remains a key relationship to monitor. Any renewed instability in the Middle East suggests that buying call options on oil futures could be an effective proxy trade for Canadian Dollar strength.

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RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said New Zealand could see stronger domestic growth this year if the conflict in the Middle East is resolved quickly. She said earlier interest rate cuts are still supporting activity.

She said it is unclear how long the conflict will last and what the effects will be, including supply disruptions. At the time reported, NZD/USD was up 0.13% at 0.5830.

Key Drivers Of The New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is influenced by New Zealand’s economic health and RBNZ policy settings. China’s economic performance can affect NZD because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, and weaker Chinese demand can reduce New Zealand exports.

Dairy prices also affect NZD because dairy is New Zealand’s main export. Higher dairy prices can lift export income and support the economy.

The RBNZ targets inflation of 1% to 3% over the medium term, aiming near 2%. Higher interest rates can support NZD, while lower rates can weaken it, and differences versus US Federal Reserve rates can move NZD/USD.

New Zealand data such as growth, unemployment, and confidence can shift NZD. NZD often rises when risk appetite is higher and falls during market stress.

Scenario Outlook For The Kiwi Dollar

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor’s comments present a clear fork in the road for the kiwi dollar. We see potential for stronger growth if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, but the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration is a major headwind. This creates a binary setup for traders, with the NZD/USD currently hovering at a low 0.5830.

For those anticipating a swift resolution, positioning for a stronger NZD seems logical. This would trigger a risk-on sentiment, which historically benefits the kiwi, and could push the RBNZ towards a more hawkish stance later in the year. Recent data from Stats NZ showed a slight uptick in business confidence for March 2026, suggesting some domestic optimism is ready to be unlocked.

Conversely, if the conflict drags on, the impact on global supply chains will likely dampen New Zealand’s export-reliant economy. We remember the disruptions in 2025 that led to a sharp economic slowdown, and the latest Port of Tauranga shipping volume data for Q1 2026 already shows a 4% decline year-over-year. In this scenario, further downside for the NZD is probable as investors seek safe havens like the US dollar.

We must also watch New Zealand’s key trading partners, especially China. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy due to higher energy prices or global uncertainty will directly impact demand for New Zealand’s exports. The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index, a crucial barometer, showed a 1.2% dip in the first auction of April 2026, reflecting this nervousness.

Given the governor’s explicit mention of uncertainty, focusing on volatility may be the most prudent approach. The implied volatility on 3-month NZD/USD options has risen to 11.5%, up from an average of 9% during the fourth quarter of 2025. This indicates the market is pricing in a significant move, and strategies that profit from a large swing in either direction could be effective.

The rate differential between the RBNZ and the US Federal Reserve remains a critical factor. While the RBNZ has signaled a pause, persistent inflation in the United States could limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates. US Core PCE for February 2026 came in slightly above expectations at 2.9%, complicating the global monetary policy outlook and potentially capping NZD strength.

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Silver (XAG/USD) fell during the Asian session on Thursday, extending the prior day’s modest pullback from the weekly high. It traded just below the mid-$73.00s, down 2.0% on the day.

Price action failed overnight near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. It also moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline.

Momentum Signals Turning Lower

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 48.18, near neutral. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipped slightly below zero and its histogram weakened.

Resistance sits at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $74.53. Further resistance is seen at the 200-period EMA at $76.76, ahead of the 50.0% retracement at $78.68.

On the downside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $69.41 is the first support area. Lower down, support is noted near the cycle low at $61.12.

The technical analysis in the original report was produced with the help of an AI tool.

Macro Drivers And Trade Positioning

Given the current weakness in silver, we see that the upside momentum is fading. The failure to break above the 200-period moving average suggests that sellers are still in control for now. This technical setup points towards a potential further slide in the near term.

This view is strengthened by the latest March 2026 inflation report, which came in at 3.1%, slightly above expectations and tempering bets for an early Fed rate cut. A strong dollar typically weighs on precious metals, and the Dollar Index (DXY) has subsequently climbed to a three-month high of 106.50. This macroeconomic pressure supports the bearish technical indicators we are observing on the charts.

For the coming weeks, traders could consider buying put options to capitalize on a potential move down towards the $69.41 support level. Alternatively, selling call credit spreads with a ceiling around the $74.53 resistance offers a strategy to profit if the price remains stagnant or drifts lower. Defining risk for any short futures positions near that same $74.53 level would be a prudent measure.

We must also consider the recent slowdown in manufacturing, as China’s March 2026 Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.8, indicating a slight contraction. While long-term industrial demand for silver in solar and EVs remains a powerful narrative, this short-term dip in industrial activity could remove a key pillar of support for prices. This aligns with the potential for silver to test lower structural floors, possibly near the cycle low of $61.12 if bearish momentum accelerates.

Looking back, we saw how sensitive silver was to geopolitical news during the sharp rally in the second half of 2025. This means that while our current bias is bearish, any unexpected escalation in global tensions could cause a rapid reversal. Therefore, maintaining disciplined stop-losses on bearish positions is essential to manage the risk of a sudden sentiment shift.

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