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Canadian dollar stabilizes after job losses, as it anticipates upcoming US CPI data
The Canadian Dollar fell on Friday after weak jobs data for Canada. The country lost 40.8K jobs in July, which was much worse than expected. This contrasted with a gain of 83.1K jobs the previous month and put pressure on the Loonie. However, overall market trends gave it a slight boost later.
Next week, we won’t see many major Canadian economic updates, meaning the global trends in the US Dollar will be the main influence. The Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates due to slow job growth, and the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data might have a big impact on market views about inflation.
In June, Argentina’s year-on-year industrial output increased from 5.8% to 9.3%.
Argentina’s industrial output rose from 5.8% in May to 9.3% in June compared to the same month last year. This increase shows that the industrial sector is performing better.
In financial markets, EUR/USD traded around 1.1650 as traders awaited US inflation data. Meanwhile, GBP/USD climbed close to 1.3450, with the British Pound gaining strength due to recent decisions by the Bank of England.
Gold prices remained steady near $3,400 per troy ounce, though they fluctuated slightly after reaching higher levels earlier. This steadiness comes amid new US tax measures on certain sizes of gold bars.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin held a positive trend, nearing a resistance level of $118,000 before pulling back to $116,525. The mood among digital currencies is upbeat, fueled by new interest from both large investors and individual traders.
The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%. Concerns about ongoing inflation rates are influencing future decisions. This suggests that officials may be cautious about further rate cuts soon.
With recent market changes, we need to adjust our derivative strategies for the upcoming weeks. The anticipated US inflation update has been released, showing a July Consumer Price Index of 3.8%, slightly higher than the 3.7% forecast. This small surprise boosts the dollar, prompting us to consider buying put options on EUR/USD, as we expect it to fall below the 1.1600 support level.
The Bank of England’s rate cut to 4% has come alongside weak economic data, with UK retail sales for July unexpectedly down by 0.5%. This increases the chances of further rate cuts to stimulate the economy, which could weaken the pound. We see this as a chance to start short positions on GBP/USD futures, aiming for a target of 1.3300.
Gold’s stability near $3,400 an ounce is being challenged by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note climbing back to 4.75% this week. This price is quite different from the $2,300 range seen throughout much of 2024, indicating a bullish market. As higher yields make gold less appealing, we are considering selling call options to take advantage of a possible price ceiling.
Bitcoin’s struggle to break the $118,000 resistance level is noteworthy, and recent data shows a slowdown in large wallet inflows over the past week. The optimism stemming from the post-2024 halving environment seems to be pausing. This suggests a consolidation period, making strategies like straddles or strangles appealing for trading expected volatility without choosing a direction.
While the strong industrial figures from Argentina in June were promising for emerging markets, our key focus is on central bank policies. The differences between a cautious Bank of England and a data-driven US Federal Reserve are likely to create volatility. We must stay ready to adapt to changing expectations regarding inflation and growth.
The US dollar stays stronger than the Swiss franc because of tariffs on gold exports
The USD/CHF pair is currently trading below 0.8100, moving within a narrow range in a cautious market. Recent US tariffs on Swiss gold bars have dampened the Swiss Franc, making it weaker against the US Dollar.
The introduction of tariffs on standard gold bullion bars, predominantly refined in Switzerland, is putting pressure on the Swiss gold industry. This move impacts Switzerland’s economy significantly, as the country exports around $61.5 billion in gold to the US each year. In July, US Customs & Border Protection reclassified these gold bars, which raised concerns in the global bullion market due to higher import duties.
Swiss Efforts Against Tariff Strain
Swiss officials are actively trying to negotiate with the US to ease rising trade tensions. However, these diplomatic efforts have not yet succeeded in reducing tariffs. The Swiss Franc appears to have limited downside potential, as speculation about a possible Federal Reserve rate cut may curb US Dollar gains. Next week, key US economic data will be released, including the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These reports are expected to shed light on inflation and consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Switzerland maintains a robust economy marked by high living standards and a strong services sector, although it remains wary of impacts from these tariff changes. We are monitoring the interplay between US tariffs on Swiss gold and the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut. This situation has kept the USD/CHF pair tightly confined below 0.8100. The market is currently waiting for a clear direction on which factor will have a greater impact. With major US economic data due next week, we anticipate increased volatility. Derivative strategies that benefit from significant price movements, such as a long straddle using at-the-money options, could be effective. This approach lets us profit from a potential breakout without needing to predict the precise direction.Market Outlook and Trading Strategies
Our analysis indicates that the US Core CPI data from the second quarter of 2025 has stubbornly stayed around 2.8%, complicating the Fed’s upcoming decisions. The current market, as reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, shows a 60% chance of a rate cut by the September meeting. Next week’s inflation report will be crucial for shaping this perspective. On the Swiss front, tariffs are a significant hurdle, especially considering that Switzerland exported roughly $61.5 billion in gold to the US in 2024. Historical trade disputes, such as those involving Swiss watches in the early 2000s, demonstrate how similar pressures can lead to prolonged weaknesses in the franc. This historical context supports a bearish outlook for the Swiss currency. The 0.8100 price level serves as a critical technical support zone, holding firm through the last quarter of 2024. Implied volatility in the options market has climbed to a three-month high, indicating that other traders are also anticipating a major move and are paying up for options contracts. For those with a particular view, if next week’s US data comes in stronger than expected, buying call options on USD/CHF would be a good strategy to capitalize on a stronger dollar with reduced Fed rate cut bets. Alternatively, if the data is weak and supports the case for a rate cut, purchasing put options would be the right approach to take advantage of a potential decline in the pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold futures hit a record $3,534 as US tariffs on bullion imports take effect, while spot prices stabilized.
Gold futures have hit a high of $3,534 after the U.S. announced tariffs on gold imports. Meanwhile, spot gold is stable around $3,397 as investors react to U.S. economic data and anticipate inflation numbers.
The gap between gold futures and spot prices has increased by over $100 due to the tariffs on one-kilo gold bars. Spot prices are steady around $3,400, as many speculate that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in their September meeting.
Unemployment and Economic Indicators
Recent reports show signs of trouble in the job market, with unemployment benefit claims rising to 228K. The Prices Paid section of the ISM Services PMI has also increased, hinting at the possibility of a rate cut in September. The Swiss Gold Association believes U.S. tariffs could make it harder to export gold to the U.S. The U.S. Dollar Index has increased slightly, which might limit gold’s gains as market players ponder future Fed decisions in light of current economic data. Central banks have ramped up gold purchases, adding 1,136 tonnes in 2022, the highest on record. Gold remains a popular safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in financial markets.Market Opportunities and Strategies
The widening gap of over $100 between futures and spot prices due to the new U.S. tariffs creates a potential trading opportunity. Traders might consider a basis trade, selling the pricier gold futures while buying cheaper spot gold to profit from this difference. With the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaching and mixed economic signals, we expect increased price fluctuations. This uncertainty makes options strategies that take advantage of volatility, like long straddles or strangles, particularly appealing. Notably, periods before major Fed policy changes, like those seen in late 2023, often led to sharp price movements. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut are a strong reason to remain optimistic about gold. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) show that money managers have increased their net-long positions, signaling growing institutional confidence. Buying call options with strike prices above $3,500 could provide a leveraged way to benefit from this upward trend. However, we must also factor in the strong U.S. Dollar Index, which recently reached a three-week high near 106.50, presenting a challenge for gold. Traders invested in gold may want to buy put options to protect against potential price drops if the Fed delays cutting rates. Ongoing purchases by central banks, which added over 220 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, should help support gold prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold trades lower after hitting a two-week high of $3,409 amid caution
**Gold Futures Surge Amid Tariff Concerns**
US tariffs now affect 1-kg and 100-oz Gold bars, mostly refined in Switzerland, impacting large US exports. The US Dollar Index is over 98.00, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25% and the 30-year yield at 4.82%.
Labor data in the US points to possible rate cuts from the Fed. Initial Jobless Claims are at 226K, and Nonfarm Payrolls show 73K new jobs. Fed comments and a Trump nomination create uncertainty. Raphael Bostic sees a potential for rate cuts but wants more data before making a final decision.
Globally, stocks are expected to gain this week. The STOXX 50 is up 3.3%, and the FTSE 100 looks positive. In the US, stocks have also risen, with the Dow Jones up 1% and Nasdaq gaining 3%. Gold’s price responds to geopolitical events, the strength of the US Dollar, and interest rates, while major purchases by central banks keep demand strong.
**Federal Reserve Focus**
Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and Treasuries. Geopolitical issues or fears of recession can raise its price. Investors turn to gold as protection against inflation and currency drop.
Gold is trying to stay above the $3,400 level, a key point for investors. The market feels torn between favorable factors, like new US tariffs and weak labor reports, and unfavorable ones, like a strong dollar and rising stock prices. This tug-of-war suggests that prices may change erratically soon.
The Federal Reserve is in the spotlight. The low 73K jobs added in July 2025 heighten the pressure for a rate cut. Market data supports this view, showing a 72% chance of a rate cut at the September 2025 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. We believe this expectation will help keep gold from facing a significant sell-off before that decision.
In the coming weeks, options traders might want to try strategies that take advantage of rising volatility. The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has risen to 18.5. Buying straddles or strangles could be a smart way to navigate the uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. These strategies could profit if gold shifts significantly in either direction, which seems probable.
For those optimistic about gold, buying call options that expire after the September Fed meeting might be wise. Recall how gold surged during the Fed’s policy change in 2019 when concerns about slowing growth led to rate cuts. Central banks continue to support gold, adding 250 metric tons to their reserves, according to the World Gold Council data for the second quarter of 2025.
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US oil rig count exceeds expectations, reaching 411 instead of 410
The Baker Hughes US oil rig count is now at 411, slightly above the expected 410. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
Market movements and asset changes come with risks and uncertainties. Readers should do their own research before making any investment decisions.
The EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.1650 after a small rebound in the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is also doing well near 1.3450, helped by support from the Bank of England’s recent decisions.
Gold prices are stabilizing around $3,400 per ounce after a slight drop. This stability is influenced by the US decision to tax certain gold bars.
The cryptocurrency market is looking strong, with Bitcoin recently reaching about $118,000 before settling around $116,525. This comes from an overall positive market feeling among both institutional and retail investors.
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, raising concerns about ongoing inflation. This cut suggests that the current easing phase may soon come to an end.
With the Bank of England lowering interest rates to 4%, the situation for the pound is complex. Normally, this would weaken the currency, but the market is reacting to hints that this easing cycle may be ending. This has provided some support for GBP/USD around 1.3450. We might want to use options to trade expected volatility since there’s still uncertainty over whether inflation will force the bank to stay steady or change direction.
The US oil rig count of 411 shows a small weekly change but confirms a trend of low drilling activity, especially compared to nearly 500 rigs in early 2024. This ongoing supply tightness has helped keep WTI crude prices above $95 per barrel this summer. This suggests we should remain optimistic, possibly by holding long positions in oil futures or using call options to benefit from price stability.
In the currency market, the EUR/USD pair is around 1.1650 as the dollar strengthens. This follows a strong US jobs report for July, adding over 250,000 jobs, which contrasts with the cautious approach of European central banks. This difference suggests that the dollar may continue to strengthen, making short positions on the Euro an appealing strategy.
Gold’s stability around $3,400 an ounce is significant, especially with the new US tax on specific gold bars. This tax may increase trading in derivatives, as traders look to use futures and options instead of handling physical gold. With recent Consumer Price Index data showing US inflation steady at 3.5%, there are solid reasons for holding on to gold.
In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s recent dip to around $116,525 seems like a natural pause after reaching nearly $118,000. The positive mood is supported by real investments from institutions, as the Bitcoin spot ETFs approved in 2024 saw strong net inflows in July. This could be a chance to “buy the dip,” possibly by selling put options with strike prices below $110,000 to earn some premiums.
GBP/USD remains steady as traders think recent BoE rate cut may be the last for 2025.
The GBP/USD remains steady during the North American session, with the US Dollar gaining some strength. The pair is trading at 1.3437, showing little change due to expectations that the Bank of England won’t cut rates again in 2025.
The Pound Sterling has gained over the last three days, hovering around 1.3450 against the US Dollar. This stability comes as forecasts about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September weigh on the Dollar.
Asian Trading Hours Update
During Asian trading hours on Friday, the GBP/USD shows minor losses around 1.3440. The US Dollar has strengthened amid speculation that Fed Governor Christopher Waller might succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Bank of England has cut rates by 25 basis points to 4%, which suggests a potential end to its easing cycle. Policymakers are focused on controlling inflation, which is currently exceeding targets. The GBP/USD pair is stable near 1.3440, following the Bank of England’s rate cut. The market is now anticipating the Federal Reserve’s actions next month. The Bank of England’s cautious approach makes sense given recent data. The latest inflation report for July 2025 shows UK CPI is still high at 3.1%, significantly above the 2% target. This makes further rate cuts unlikely this year as they prioritize controlling prices.Market Implications and Strategies
In the United States, the situation is different, putting pressure on the Dollar. The Fed’s favored inflation measure, Core PCE, has dropped to 2.5% in recent data, getting closer to their comfort level. This is driving expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting. The differing policies suggest we should consider buying GBP/USD call options. These options will profit if the pair rises, as we anticipate. Using options instead of trading the currency directly helps limit our risk if the Federal Reserve surprises the market. Currently, currency market volatility is at its lowest in months, making options cheaper to buy. We believe it’s crucial to set these positions up before the September Fed meeting, looking at options that expire in late September or October to take advantage of any potential movements. We remember the aggressive rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, which highlighted how seriously central banks view inflation. The Bank of England seems to be keeping this lesson more in mind than the Fed. This difference in policies is the main reason for our trading outlook in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Trade Desk’s stock has struggled significantly after the departure of its CFO.
Trade Desk’s stock dropped almost 40% after the CFO announced her departure. In the second quarter, the company’s revenue surpassed predictions by $8 million, totaling $694 million, while the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) met expectations at $0.41.
Despite this revenue boost, the stock fell to $53.75, reflecting a 39% decline during the morning. In contrast, the broader market indices, including the DJIA and NASDAQ, were trending upward while Trade Desk’s stock slid downward.
CFO Departure and Market Impact
Laura Schenkein, the outgoing CFO, will remain until the end of the year to help transition to her successor, Alex Kayyal. CEO Jeffrey Green noted strong performance in the Connected TV sector and improved client interactions via platforms like Kokai and OpenPath. Schenkein expects Q3 revenue to hit $717 million, marking a 14% increase from last year. She also anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $277 million, slightly exceeding Q2 results. Analyst Jessica Rief Ehrlich lowered her price target for Trade Desk stock by 58%, bringing it down from $130 to $55 and changing her rating from Buy to Neutral. The stock has now dropped below key moving averages, with potential support seen in the $43 to $47 range. Further assessments suggest the stock needs to stabilize before any recovery can happen. Given today’s date, August 9, 2025, the sharp drop in Trade Desk stock creates a major opportunity for derivative traders. The significant decline has led to implied volatility surging above 85%, far beyond its average of around 45% over the past year. This makes selling options more appealing than buying them.Options Opportunity Amidst Volatility
We think the market has overreacted to the CFO’s departure, especially since the company’s fundamentals remain strong. The revenue beat in Q2 and the positive guidance for Q3 indicate that the business is performing well. Thus, we see a chance in selling cash-secured puts or starting bull put spreads with strike prices around the technical support level of $45 for September or October expirations. This strategy allows us to collect high premiums while giving the stock a chance to stabilize and recover. In early 2024, we observed a similar situation when a management change at another tech firm caused a 25% drop, which was recovered within two quarters thanks to solid operational results. Currently, the high cost of options makes buying calls risky since the stock would need a sharp rebound just to break even. The CEO’s confidence in Connected TV is backed by recent industry data. A July 2025 report from Nielsen showed that CTV ad spending grew 21% year-over-year in the first half of the year, a trend we expect to continue. This external data supports the company’s optimistic outlook for its core growth area. Over the next few weeks, we will monitor the stock for a base, likely in the $43 to $47 range mentioned by analysts. A period of consolidation here would signal that the panic selling is at an end. This would be an ideal time to take advantage of the elevated volatility before it begins to decline as uncertainty diminishes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP/USD remains stable as BoE’s expected rate cut wraps up 2025 adjustments
The GBP/USD pair is stable at 1.3437 as the US Dollar makes a slight recovery. The Bank of England (BoE) recently lowered rates by 25 basis points in a split 5-4 vote. This cautious move leads to an 87% chance that rates will remain unchanged in September.
There’s speculation about the leadership of the US Federal Reserve. Rumors suggest that Christopher Waller could succeed Jerome Powell in 2026. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem mentions steady economic activity but notes that inflation is not on target, painting a mixed economic picture.
Current Market Sentiment
The GBP/USD pair has not gained traction following the BoE’s rate cut. With an 87% likelihood of rates staying at 4% in September, BoE’s Huw Pill also highlights risks of increased inflation over the coming years. Key UK economic data on the horizon includes Retail Sales, Employment statistics, and GDP figures. In the US, important releases will cover CPI, Retail Sales, PPI, and UoM Consumer Sentiment. The technical outlook for GBP/USD remains neutral to upward, with resistance at 1.3500 and support at 1.3400. Due to the BoE’s recent and closely contested rate cut, the market is filled with uncertainty. The split vote signifies differences in how committee members view the economy, making future policy directions unpredictable, even with an 87% chance of stable rates in September. On the US side, the Federal Reserve is currently taking a wait-and-see approach as it looks for clearer data. July’s US inflation rate was reported at 3.2%, above the Fed’s 2% target, which supports their cautious strategy. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady at its September meeting.Trading Strategy and Economic Outlook
At this moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading within a narrow range, finding support around 1.3400 and resistance just below 1.3500. This sideways movement often happens before major economic announcements. The upcoming UK employment and US inflation reports will likely prompt the pair to break out of this range. In this environment of low volatility but high event risk, buying options is a good strategy. We recommend purchasing a strangle or straddle, which can profit from significant price movements in either direction. With one-week implied volatility being low, these options are cheaper to buy before a potential price spike. Looking back, this cautious rate cut from the BoE marks a significant shift after a period of aggressive tightening that began in late 2021. It signals a clear dovish turn, though the split vote indicates that rapid cuts might not be on the horizon. The UK’s most recent CPI data from July showed inflation at 2.1%, just above the target, which contributes to the committee’s divided decision. We should focus on the upcoming economic calendar, especially the US Consumer Price Index and UK Retail Sales figures. These reports will guide both central banks and influence the GBP/USD pair. Any major deviation from expectations will likely trigger the next significant market move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/GBP stabilizes after a weekly low as focus shifts to ECB and BoE policies
EUR/GBP has bounced back from a low of 0.8653 and is currently trading at around 0.8670. This movement follows the Bank of England (BoE) raising rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, a decision made by a close 5–4 vote.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill has raised concerns about the pace of rate cuts due to worries about inflation. He highlighted risks that current inflation trends could affect how households and businesses behave.
Governor Andrew Bailey also mentioned uncertainty about future rate directions, reflecting some division within the BoE over its policies. The BoE is being careful with rate cuts, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its rates steady, indicating different economic strategies.
The ECB’s decision to maintain rates suggests confidence in controlling inflation. However, uncertainties in the global economy continue to impact outlooks.
The BoE’s narrow vote for a rate cut shows significant uncertainty for the Pound. This stands in stark contrast to the ECB’s choice to keep rates unchanged, creating a clear policy divergence that we can trade on. This difference points to a potential rise for EUR/GBP in the upcoming weeks.
Huw Pill’s worries about inflation are valid, especially since the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from July 2025 recorded 2.8%, which is still above the Bank’s target. This persistent inflation suggests the market might be too aggressive in expecting future rate cuts. We think this division within the BoE will prevent any rate cuts at their next meeting in September.
The 5–4 vote split indicates increased volatility for GBP currency pairs. We should consider buying options strategies like straddles on EUR/GBP to benefit from significant price movements, taking advantage of the BoE’s internal divisions. Looking at market movements after UK policy changes in late 2022, we know that such uncertainty often leads to profitable volatility.
With the ECB’s steady approach and recent Eurozone inflation rates holding steady around 2.5%, the Euro is likely to strengthen against the Pound. Recent market data supports this, with a notable 15% rise in open interest for EUR/GBP call options set to expire in the fourth quarter. We should prepare for a test of the 0.8750 resistance level before the end of September.
