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US oil rig count exceeds expectations, reaching 411 instead of 410
The Baker Hughes US oil rig count is now at 411, slightly above the expected 410. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
Market movements and asset changes come with risks and uncertainties. Readers should do their own research before making any investment decisions.
The EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.1650 after a small rebound in the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is also doing well near 1.3450, helped by support from the Bank of England’s recent decisions.
Gold prices are stabilizing around $3,400 per ounce after a slight drop. This stability is influenced by the US decision to tax certain gold bars.
The cryptocurrency market is looking strong, with Bitcoin recently reaching about $118,000 before settling around $116,525. This comes from an overall positive market feeling among both institutional and retail investors.
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, raising concerns about ongoing inflation. This cut suggests that the current easing phase may soon come to an end.
With the Bank of England lowering interest rates to 4%, the situation for the pound is complex. Normally, this would weaken the currency, but the market is reacting to hints that this easing cycle may be ending. This has provided some support for GBP/USD around 1.3450. We might want to use options to trade expected volatility since there’s still uncertainty over whether inflation will force the bank to stay steady or change direction.
The US oil rig count of 411 shows a small weekly change but confirms a trend of low drilling activity, especially compared to nearly 500 rigs in early 2024. This ongoing supply tightness has helped keep WTI crude prices above $95 per barrel this summer. This suggests we should remain optimistic, possibly by holding long positions in oil futures or using call options to benefit from price stability.
In the currency market, the EUR/USD pair is around 1.1650 as the dollar strengthens. This follows a strong US jobs report for July, adding over 250,000 jobs, which contrasts with the cautious approach of European central banks. This difference suggests that the dollar may continue to strengthen, making short positions on the Euro an appealing strategy.
Gold’s stability around $3,400 an ounce is significant, especially with the new US tax on specific gold bars. This tax may increase trading in derivatives, as traders look to use futures and options instead of handling physical gold. With recent Consumer Price Index data showing US inflation steady at 3.5%, there are solid reasons for holding on to gold.
In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s recent dip to around $116,525 seems like a natural pause after reaching nearly $118,000. The positive mood is supported by real investments from institutions, as the Bitcoin spot ETFs approved in 2024 saw strong net inflows in July. This could be a chance to “buy the dip,” possibly by selling put options with strike prices below $110,000 to earn some premiums.
GBP/USD remains steady as traders think recent BoE rate cut may be the last for 2025.
The GBP/USD remains steady during the North American session, with the US Dollar gaining some strength. The pair is trading at 1.3437, showing little change due to expectations that the Bank of England won’t cut rates again in 2025.
The Pound Sterling has gained over the last three days, hovering around 1.3450 against the US Dollar. This stability comes as forecasts about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September weigh on the Dollar.
Asian Trading Hours Update
During Asian trading hours on Friday, the GBP/USD shows minor losses around 1.3440. The US Dollar has strengthened amid speculation that Fed Governor Christopher Waller might succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Bank of England has cut rates by 25 basis points to 4%, which suggests a potential end to its easing cycle. Policymakers are focused on controlling inflation, which is currently exceeding targets. The GBP/USD pair is stable near 1.3440, following the Bank of England’s rate cut. The market is now anticipating the Federal Reserve’s actions next month. The Bank of England’s cautious approach makes sense given recent data. The latest inflation report for July 2025 shows UK CPI is still high at 3.1%, significantly above the 2% target. This makes further rate cuts unlikely this year as they prioritize controlling prices.Market Implications and Strategies
In the United States, the situation is different, putting pressure on the Dollar. The Fed’s favored inflation measure, Core PCE, has dropped to 2.5% in recent data, getting closer to their comfort level. This is driving expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting. The differing policies suggest we should consider buying GBP/USD call options. These options will profit if the pair rises, as we anticipate. Using options instead of trading the currency directly helps limit our risk if the Federal Reserve surprises the market. Currently, currency market volatility is at its lowest in months, making options cheaper to buy. We believe it’s crucial to set these positions up before the September Fed meeting, looking at options that expire in late September or October to take advantage of any potential movements. We remember the aggressive rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, which highlighted how seriously central banks view inflation. The Bank of England seems to be keeping this lesson more in mind than the Fed. This difference in policies is the main reason for our trading outlook in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Trade Desk’s stock has struggled significantly after the departure of its CFO.
Trade Desk’s stock dropped almost 40% after the CFO announced her departure. In the second quarter, the company’s revenue surpassed predictions by $8 million, totaling $694 million, while the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) met expectations at $0.41.
Despite this revenue boost, the stock fell to $53.75, reflecting a 39% decline during the morning. In contrast, the broader market indices, including the DJIA and NASDAQ, were trending upward while Trade Desk’s stock slid downward.
CFO Departure and Market Impact
Laura Schenkein, the outgoing CFO, will remain until the end of the year to help transition to her successor, Alex Kayyal. CEO Jeffrey Green noted strong performance in the Connected TV sector and improved client interactions via platforms like Kokai and OpenPath. Schenkein expects Q3 revenue to hit $717 million, marking a 14% increase from last year. She also anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $277 million, slightly exceeding Q2 results. Analyst Jessica Rief Ehrlich lowered her price target for Trade Desk stock by 58%, bringing it down from $130 to $55 and changing her rating from Buy to Neutral. The stock has now dropped below key moving averages, with potential support seen in the $43 to $47 range. Further assessments suggest the stock needs to stabilize before any recovery can happen. Given today’s date, August 9, 2025, the sharp drop in Trade Desk stock creates a major opportunity for derivative traders. The significant decline has led to implied volatility surging above 85%, far beyond its average of around 45% over the past year. This makes selling options more appealing than buying them.Options Opportunity Amidst Volatility
We think the market has overreacted to the CFO’s departure, especially since the company’s fundamentals remain strong. The revenue beat in Q2 and the positive guidance for Q3 indicate that the business is performing well. Thus, we see a chance in selling cash-secured puts or starting bull put spreads with strike prices around the technical support level of $45 for September or October expirations. This strategy allows us to collect high premiums while giving the stock a chance to stabilize and recover. In early 2024, we observed a similar situation when a management change at another tech firm caused a 25% drop, which was recovered within two quarters thanks to solid operational results. Currently, the high cost of options makes buying calls risky since the stock would need a sharp rebound just to break even. The CEO’s confidence in Connected TV is backed by recent industry data. A July 2025 report from Nielsen showed that CTV ad spending grew 21% year-over-year in the first half of the year, a trend we expect to continue. This external data supports the company’s optimistic outlook for its core growth area. Over the next few weeks, we will monitor the stock for a base, likely in the $43 to $47 range mentioned by analysts. A period of consolidation here would signal that the panic selling is at an end. This would be an ideal time to take advantage of the elevated volatility before it begins to decline as uncertainty diminishes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP/USD remains stable as BoE’s expected rate cut wraps up 2025 adjustments
The GBP/USD pair is stable at 1.3437 as the US Dollar makes a slight recovery. The Bank of England (BoE) recently lowered rates by 25 basis points in a split 5-4 vote. This cautious move leads to an 87% chance that rates will remain unchanged in September.
There’s speculation about the leadership of the US Federal Reserve. Rumors suggest that Christopher Waller could succeed Jerome Powell in 2026. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem mentions steady economic activity but notes that inflation is not on target, painting a mixed economic picture.
Current Market Sentiment
The GBP/USD pair has not gained traction following the BoE’s rate cut. With an 87% likelihood of rates staying at 4% in September, BoE’s Huw Pill also highlights risks of increased inflation over the coming years. Key UK economic data on the horizon includes Retail Sales, Employment statistics, and GDP figures. In the US, important releases will cover CPI, Retail Sales, PPI, and UoM Consumer Sentiment. The technical outlook for GBP/USD remains neutral to upward, with resistance at 1.3500 and support at 1.3400. Due to the BoE’s recent and closely contested rate cut, the market is filled with uncertainty. The split vote signifies differences in how committee members view the economy, making future policy directions unpredictable, even with an 87% chance of stable rates in September. On the US side, the Federal Reserve is currently taking a wait-and-see approach as it looks for clearer data. July’s US inflation rate was reported at 3.2%, above the Fed’s 2% target, which supports their cautious strategy. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady at its September meeting.Trading Strategy and Economic Outlook
At this moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading within a narrow range, finding support around 1.3400 and resistance just below 1.3500. This sideways movement often happens before major economic announcements. The upcoming UK employment and US inflation reports will likely prompt the pair to break out of this range. In this environment of low volatility but high event risk, buying options is a good strategy. We recommend purchasing a strangle or straddle, which can profit from significant price movements in either direction. With one-week implied volatility being low, these options are cheaper to buy before a potential price spike. Looking back, this cautious rate cut from the BoE marks a significant shift after a period of aggressive tightening that began in late 2021. It signals a clear dovish turn, though the split vote indicates that rapid cuts might not be on the horizon. The UK’s most recent CPI data from July showed inflation at 2.1%, just above the target, which contributes to the committee’s divided decision. We should focus on the upcoming economic calendar, especially the US Consumer Price Index and UK Retail Sales figures. These reports will guide both central banks and influence the GBP/USD pair. Any major deviation from expectations will likely trigger the next significant market move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/GBP stabilizes after a weekly low as focus shifts to ECB and BoE policies
EUR/GBP has bounced back from a low of 0.8653 and is currently trading at around 0.8670. This movement follows the Bank of England (BoE) raising rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, a decision made by a close 5–4 vote.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill has raised concerns about the pace of rate cuts due to worries about inflation. He highlighted risks that current inflation trends could affect how households and businesses behave.
Governor Andrew Bailey also mentioned uncertainty about future rate directions, reflecting some division within the BoE over its policies. The BoE is being careful with rate cuts, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its rates steady, indicating different economic strategies.
The ECB’s decision to maintain rates suggests confidence in controlling inflation. However, uncertainties in the global economy continue to impact outlooks.
The BoE’s narrow vote for a rate cut shows significant uncertainty for the Pound. This stands in stark contrast to the ECB’s choice to keep rates unchanged, creating a clear policy divergence that we can trade on. This difference points to a potential rise for EUR/GBP in the upcoming weeks.
Huw Pill’s worries about inflation are valid, especially since the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from July 2025 recorded 2.8%, which is still above the Bank’s target. This persistent inflation suggests the market might be too aggressive in expecting future rate cuts. We think this division within the BoE will prevent any rate cuts at their next meeting in September.
The 5–4 vote split indicates increased volatility for GBP currency pairs. We should consider buying options strategies like straddles on EUR/GBP to benefit from significant price movements, taking advantage of the BoE’s internal divisions. Looking at market movements after UK policy changes in late 2022, we know that such uncertainty often leads to profitable volatility.
With the ECB’s steady approach and recent Eurozone inflation rates holding steady around 2.5%, the Euro is likely to strengthen against the Pound. Recent market data supports this, with a notable 15% rise in open interest for EUR/GBP call options set to expire in the fourth quarter. We should prepare for a test of the 0.8750 resistance level before the end of September.
Alberto Musalem from the St. Louis Federal Reserve says US economic activity is stable.
The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that the US economy is stable, but some challenges remain. There are ongoing skilled labor shortages, and companies are cautious about spending and hiring. However, pressure from funding has lessened.
Most of the tariff effects on inflation are expected to decrease. Still, there’s a chance that inflation may stick around, which could negatively impact jobs if economic activity slows.
The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Goals
The Federal Reserve aims for price stability and full employment. It adjusts interest rates to achieve these targets. Raising interest rates can strengthen the US Dollar, while lowering them may weaken it. Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative Tightening (QT) are special measures used during economic crises. QE can weaken the US Dollar by increasing the money supply, while QT can strengthen it by cutting back on bond purchases. Currently, US economic activity appears steady, but the situation is fragile. The jobs report for July 2025 showed only 150,000 new jobs added, which was below expectations and highlights potential risks in the job market. This uncertainty complicates the Federal Reserve’s next steps, making the markets anxious. While some price pressures are easing, we still face ongoing inflation. The latest Consumer Price Index for July 2025 was 3.1%, reminding us that the battle against inflation isn’t over, similar to the resistance we experienced in 2023. This pushes back expectations for immediate interest rate cuts while keeping the possibility of an additional rate hike open.Market Volatility and Investment Strategies
With a slowing job market and persistent inflation, we expect increased market volatility. Buying options could help protect our portfolios. Strategies like straddles on the S&P 500 could profit from big market moves in either direction. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at a moderate 16 but could rise before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The Federal Reserve’s commitment to controlling inflation suggests that interest rates will stay high longer than previously anticipated. This approach supports a stronger US Dollar since higher rates attract foreign investments. We could consider using currency derivatives, such as buying call options on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), to profit from this potential strength against other currencies. It’s also important to note that the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening program is ongoing. By reducing its bond holdings by billions each month, the Fed is quietly pulling liquidity from the system. This policy supports the US Dollar and makes it less likely to weaken significantly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen says China’s recent trade figures provide little support for copper prices.
China’s trade data for July shows strong demand, with more imports of unwrought copper and copper ores compared to the previous month. This trend continues despite worries about possible US tariffs on unprocessed copper, which were thought to impact trade.
US tariffs, affecting only a few copper products, did not push Chinese importers to shift to the US market. It might have been wise for them to wait for tariff decisions, as this could lead to lower prices from other countries.
The increase in copper ore imports contrasts with falling treatment and refining charges, indicating a shortage of raw materials. This decline suggests that processing challenges are affecting metal availability.
China’s demand for copper is strong, as evidenced by the rise in July 2025 imports. Recent industrial production numbers for July also exceeded expectations. Traders should pay less attention to the uncertainty of US tariffs since these have not greatly changed trade flows.
One key indicator is the drop in treatment and refining charges, which are now at multi-year lows of about $15 per tonne. This indicates a shortage of copper concentrate for smelters. If there is not enough raw material now, there will likely be less refined metal available in the future.
We can already see this tightness in global warehouse stocks. As of early August 2025, registered copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange have fallen to just 45,000 tonnes, the lowest level since late 2024. This shortage indicates that demand is currently outpacing supply.
This situation is similar to market conditions in 2021 when a squeeze in concentrate supply and declining exchange inventories led to a surge in copper prices. The current circumstances suggest a similar pattern may be unfolding.
Given these supply constraints and steady demand, we believe the market is undervaluing the risk of a price spike in the coming weeks. We should look to establish long positions through futures or buy call options to take advantage of the potential price increase. This strategy will allow us to benefit from the emerging supply squeeze.
Commerzbank analyst notes that India’s oil shipments from Russia decreased due to Trump’s tariff threat
India has cut its oil imports from Russia to 460,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since April 2022. This marks the third week in a row of decreases and is significantly lower than the mid-July average of 1.6 million barrels per day.
Impact Of US Tariffs
This reduction follows the US imposing a 25% punitive tariff on India, which will increase to 50% in three weeks as reciprocal tariffs are put in place. Indian state-run refineries have been told to stop buying Russian oil in response. In contrast, China’s crude oil imports remained strong at 47.2 million tons, or 11.13 million barrels per day, in July. Although this is a 5.4% drop from the previous month, it’s an 11.5% increase compared to July of last year. Russia was China’s top oil supplier in June, providing over 2 million barrels per day. As this unfolds, China’s ongoing oil purchases from Russia continue to be a point of tension with the US. Data about the origin of China’s oil imports will be released later this month, offering more information about global oil trade trends. India’s slowdown in Russian oil purchases creates a gap in the market that needs to be filled. This situation may boost global benchmarks like Brent crude since Indian refiners will now compete for barrels from the Middle East and West Africa. This quick shift in supply could tighten the market for immediate deliveries in the upcoming weeks.Geopolitical Risks And Market Volatility
The growing trade dispute between the US and India adds significant geopolitical risk, which likely leads to increased market volatility. Recently, the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) jumped from the low 30s to 42 in just a few days. Traders may want to consider buying options to capitalize on these expected large price fluctuations. One key trade focuses on the price difference between Russian Urals and Brent crude. After European sanctions began in mid-2022, the spread widened to over $30 per barrel. With India stopping its purchases, the Brent-Urals spread has already increased to $18, and we anticipate it could reach around $25 as the US tariffs fully take effect. We also need to keep an eye on China, which is importing a significant amount of crude and balancing the market. China’s latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July 2025 was strong at 51.5, showing that their demand for energy remains robust. This steady demand will likely support global oil prices and avoid a major price drop. Now, attention should turn to what types of oil will replace the Russian barrels in India’s refineries. Recent tanker tracking indicates a rise in interest for Iraqi Basrah Light and Saudi Arab Light for September deliveries. This shift may create short-term price premiums for these specific Middle Eastern grades in the coming month. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank analyst reports an increase in oil prices for Asian customers in September
Saudi Arabia has increased its oil prices for deliveries to Asia in September. The price of Arab Light will go up by $1, reaching $3.20 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark.
This marks the highest price in five months. Although there is more supply, Saudi Arabia sees strong demand for its oil.
U.S. customers will face a slight price rise compared to last month. In contrast, prices for European customers have been lowered after previous increases.
Pressure from the U.S. is pushing buyers of Russian oil to look for new suppliers, including Saudi Arabia. This change is significantly affecting the global oil market.
By raising prices for Asia, Saudi Arabia shows confidence in demand. This suggests a positive outlook for the market in the coming weeks. This price increase indicates that major global suppliers aren’t worried about losing demand just yet, so we expect crude oil prices may rise.
Supporting this view, recent data from July 2025 reveals that crude imports into China and India were very strong, exceeding analyst predictions. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report for the week ending August 1, 2025, showed a larger-than-expected decrease in U.S. crude inventories. These figures point to a tighter market than many anticipated.
The ongoing pressure on Russian oil buyers is pushing demand towards Middle Eastern suppliers. This geopolitical factor significantly strengthens prices, especially in Asia, where there is a competition for stable supplies. We expect this trend to continue, providing a solid price floor through September.
However, the price reduction for European customers is a warning that shouldn’t be ignored. Recent manufacturing PMI data from the Eurozone showed a decline into contraction, indicating economic weakness that could limit oil’s rise. This regional difference may create opportunities for spread trades between benchmarks.
Given these mixed signals, we anticipate increased volatility in the oil markets. In this environment, options strategies could be appealing, as call options may provide upside exposure with defined risk. Traders should be ready for rapid, news-driven price swings in the near future.
Looking back, we remember a similar situation in late 2024 when a price rise by Saudi Arabia led to a two-month rally in Brent futures. While history isn’t a precise predictor, it suggests that actions by the world’s largest oil exporter often shape market trends rather than just follow them.
The USD stayed mostly stable while the NASDAQ reached a new record high during trading.
On August 8, 2025, the Nasdaq index set a new record high and reached an intraday peak. The S&P index came close to its all-time high, marking a solid week with the Nasdaq up by 3.87% and the S&P up by 2.43%.
In the currency markets, the US dollar generally got stronger, but it dipped a little against the British pound, the top-performing currency of the week. The euro rose by 0.21%, and the Japanese yen increased by 0.46% against the dollar.
