CFTC data for the eurozone shows that EUR non-commercial net positions fell to €105.1K. The previous figure was €136.5K. This change indicates a decline of €31.4K in the reported net positioning. The figures come from the latest CFTC release. We are seeing a notable reduction in bullish conviction for the Euro among large speculators. The drop in net long positions by over €31 billion is a significant unwinding of previously optimistic bets. This suggests that the easy money in the Euro’s rally may be behind us for now. This shift in sentiment aligns with recent disappointing economic data out of the bloc. German industrial production, reported last week for January, unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, and the latest flash estimate for Eurozone inflation in early March came in at 1.9%, just under the central bank’s target. These figures are giving traders reason to pause and question the strength of the Eurozone’s economic footing. The European Central Bank is also a key factor, with recent rhetoric from board members hinting at a possible rate cut in the second quarter of 2026 to support growth. We saw the odds of a June rate cut increase to nearly 60% this week, a sharp contrast to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold rates steady. This policy divergence is putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate, which has struggled to hold above the 1.0800 level. For derivatives traders, this warrants a more defensive or even bearish posture in the coming weeks. We should consider buying puts on the Euro or establishing bearish put spreads to protect against a potential slide towards the 1.0650 support level. The weakening conviction means upside surprises are becoming less likely in the near term. Looking back at the strong bullish consensus we saw build in the fourth quarter of 2025, this current pullback is a clear change in character for the market. Implied volatility on Euro options has been relatively low, and this shift in positioning could be an early signal that volatility may soon pick up. We believe long volatility strategies could become increasingly attractive if this trend of uncertainty continues.

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Japan CFTC data shows JPY non-commercial net positions moved further into negative territory. The net position fell from ¥-16.6k to ¥-41.4k. This indicates a larger net short position in Japanese yen futures held by non-commercial traders. The change implies an increase in bearish positioning versus the previous reporting period.

Rising Speculative Bearishness

We are seeing a significant increase in bearish bets against the Japanese Yen. The jump in net short positions to -41.4K from -16.6K shows that large speculators are strengthening their view that the Yen will weaken. This is a strong signal for traders to reassess any long Yen positions. This sentiment is being driven by the widening policy gap between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. With Tokyo’s Core CPI for February 2026 coming in at 1.9%, just below the central bank’s target, the BoJ maintained its accommodative stance last week. Meanwhile, strong US jobs data continues to support a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve, making the dollar more attractive. For options traders, this growing negative positioning points towards buying USD/JPY call options to profit from a potential rise in the currency pair. The increased speculation could also push up implied volatility, so we should monitor the cost of these options. It may be prudent to consider strategies that benefit from this volatility, such as straddles, if we expect a large price swing. Those trading futures should recognize that momentum is clearly in favor of shorting the Yen. The path of least resistance for USD/JPY appears to be upward in the near term. However, we must be cautious as such a rapid build-up in short positions can create the conditions for a sharp reversal or a “short squeeze.”

Key Risks And Catalysts

Looking back at the market action throughout 2025, we saw similar periods where speculative shorts built up heavily, often preceding verbal warnings from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. While the current positioning is not yet at the extreme levels seen then, it is a trend that historically invites official scrutiny. This means we need to be prepared for potential intervention announcements. The primary risk to this bearish outlook is an unexpected policy shift from the Bank of Japan or direct currency intervention. We should pay close attention to upcoming Japanese inflation data and any comments from government officials. Any hint of a policy change could cause these short positions to unwind very quickly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/KRW moved towards 1,495 during overnight trade, with the won among the worst performers. The move came during geopolitical stress and higher energy prices. Bullish momentum on the daily chart remained in place, and the RSI was rising. Risks were described as tilted towards further gains in USD/KRW. Key resistance levels were set at 1,500 and 1,510. Support was placed at 1,470. Policymakers were reported to have reassured markets, with the option of stronger steps to slow the pace of won depreciation. A shift lower in USD/KRW was linked to an end to the conflict and the return of shipping routes and oil flows. The Korean Won is one of the worst performers right now, with the USD/KRW pair pushing towards 1,495. This is because the Won is very sensitive to global problems, especially the ongoing geopolitical stress and high energy prices. Technical signs show that this upward momentum is still strong. We are seeing this play out as Brent crude has remained stubbornly above $105 a barrel for most of this quarter, fueled by the persistent shipping disruptions. Statistics from early March 2026 confirm the Won has weakened over 4% against the dollar since the start of the year. This is a more aggressive move than the one we saw during the tensions of late 2025. With risks pointed to the upside, positioning for further Won weakness seems logical. This suggests buying USD/KRW call options with strike prices targeting the 1,500 and then 1,510 resistance levels. These levels represent the next major hurdles for the currency pair. However, we must remain watchful, as Korean policymakers have been quick to reassure the market and could intervene more forcefully. Any sign of conflict resolution or a resumption of normal oil flows would trigger a sharp turnaround. The 1,470 support level is the key line to watch for any change in this upward trend.

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The US Dollar ended the week firmer as the US/Israeli war against Iran neared two weeks. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted Oil prices, raising inflation risks and driving demand for safe-haven currencies. The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved above 100.00 and traded near 100.30 after four daily gains. The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in January, ahead of the next rate decision on Wednesday.

Major Currency Levels

EUR/USD traded near 1.1430, around levels last seen in August 2025. GBP/USD traded near 1.3240, around levels last reached in December 2025. USD/JPY traded near 159.60 after limited daily gains. AUD/USD traded at 0.7000 after slipping from 0.7100. WTI traded at $97 per barrel after government reserve releases failed to cap prices. WTI hit $119 per barrel on Monday, a level not seen since 2022, while gold traded at $5,044. The week includes central bank events and data from March 16–20, plus speeches through March 21. Scheduled items include the RBA, BoC, Fed, BoJ, BoE, SNB, ECB and PBoC decisions, with releases such as CPI, PPI, GDP, jobs data, trade figures, home sales, and business surveys.

Conflict Driven Volatility

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has injected extreme volatility into the markets, and we expect this to continue. With Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting about a fifth of the world’s oil supply, the primary focus is on energy prices and the resulting inflation shock. Derivative traders should be positioned for sharp, unpredictable swings across all asset classes in the coming weeks. WTI crude oil’s recent spike to $119 a barrel, a level we last saw during the 2022 crisis, shows how sensitive the market is to supply disruptions. While prices have pulled back to $97, the upcoming weekly EIA inventory reports will be crucial for short-term price action. Option traders should note that implied volatility is extremely high, suggesting strategies that profit from large price movements could be more effective than simply picking a direction. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is the week’s main event, as its previous outlook from January is now likely obsolete. Historically, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil can add significant upward pressure on headline inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path. The US Dollar Index (DXY) pushing past 100 shows that capital is flowing into the Greenback as a safe haven, a pattern we also observed in past crises. We are seeing significant weakness in currencies of energy-importing nations, with EUR/USD falling to levels last seen in August 2025. The Eurozone is particularly vulnerable to an energy price shock, which will put the European Central Bank in a difficult position during its meeting this Thursday. Traders should watch for any divergence in policy tone between the Fed and the ECB, which could fuel further currency trends. The Japanese Yen’s traditional safe-haven status is creating a complicated picture for USD/JPY, which is struggling for direction near its two-year high. Conversely, risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar are clearly under pressure, with AUD/USD breaking below the 0.7100 handle. This risk-off sentiment is likely to persist as long as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. A cascade of central bank meetings from the Fed, ECB, BoJ, SNB, and BoE next week means monetary policy will be a huge driver. We anticipate that policymakers will be forced to address the dual threat of rising inflation and slowing growth caused by the energy shock. The official statements and press conferences will be scrutinized for any shifts in economic projections, providing the next major catalyst for the market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) runs upstream operations in the Permian Basin, Guyana, and Kazakhstan. The share price is up nearly 27% year to date, linked to higher crude prices during Middle East conflict and Berkshire Hathaway adding shares. On the monthly chart, price is near a long-running resistance trendline. The line has been in place since about 2007 and connects major swing highs across several market cycles.

Long Term Resistance Level

The current monthly candle is around $196.97. The trendline meets price near $210.57, which is treated as a potential turning point rather than an automatic breakout level. One scenario is a move up to about $210.57 followed by rejection. A monthly close back below that area would support a pullback, with $160–$170 noted as an initial target zone. The other scenario is a confirmed monthly close above $210.57. That would break the long-term resistance structure and change the chart outlook. For the short idea, a month-end close above $210.57 would invalidate the setup. This keeps the focus on defined levels and clear conditions.

Options Market Positioning

With Chevron up nearly 27% since the start of the year, we are approaching a critical decision point. Recent filings confirmed Berkshire Hathaway increased their stake, while WTI crude futures just broke $95 a barrel amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This fundamental strength is pushing the stock directly into a technical wall that has held firm for almost two decades. This brings us to the multi-decade resistance trendline sitting near $210.57. For derivative traders, the rising implied volatility in options expiring in April and May 2026 is the key signal that the market anticipates a big move. Both out-of-the-money puts and calls have become more expensive, suggesting traders are positioning for either a sharp rejection or a powerful breakout. For those anticipating a rejection, we see traders buying May 2026 puts with strike prices like $190 or $185. This strategy bets that the long-term trendline will hold and send the price back toward the $160-$170 support zone. The defined risk of an options contract makes this an attractive way to play a potential downturn without shorting the stock directly. Conversely, a bullish stance requires patience. A decisive monthly close for March above the $210.57 level would be the trigger to consider buying July 2026 calls, perhaps targeting the $220 or $225 strikes. This would signal a major structural breakout, and we would expect momentum to carry the stock into uncharted territory. More complex strategies like bear put spreads could also be used to lower the cost of entry for a short position. For instance, one might buy the June $205 put and sell the June $190 put to define the risk and reward. This is a play on the stock failing at resistance but finding support before a full collapse. Looking back from our perspective in 2025, we recall how the 2022 rally also stalled at a major high before pulling back significantly. The current setup echoes past cycle tops where fundamentals looked incredibly strong right at the point of technical exhaustion. This historical pattern reinforces why the $210.57 level deserves so much respect from us. The crucial event will be the monthly candle close for March 2026 in about two weeks. If the price is firmly below that trendline, the bearish options plays remain valid, but time decay will become an enemy. If it closes above, the short thesis is invalidated, and the focus must shift to playing a breakout. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Block Inc, formerly Square, is a financial technology firm that provides digital payments and financial services. It runs platforms that help businesses process payments and also offers financial tools to consumers. After reporting earnings on 26 February, the share price rose by more than 24% in a short period. The stock is trading relatively flat today. Since that post-earnings rise, the price has pulled back by more than 11.5% from its highs. The move created a price gap, which can later act as a chart level if the price returns to it. A support area being monitored is around $54.60, linked to a potential gap fill from the earnings move. Reaching $54.60 would mean the price has fully reversed the earnings-driven gain, returning to where the gap began. Gap fills can attract buying interest, but the level may not hold. Risk management is described as a priority, with an emphasis on protecting capital if a trade is considered. We saw a similar setup in Block Inc. after its earnings report back on February 26, 2025, which caused the stock to surge over 24% and leave a significant price gap behind. That move higher created an important technical zone that we watched for many months. These kinds of powerful, news-driven rallies often establish key levels on a chart. Following the most recent earnings announcement in late February 2026, the stock has again moved sharply higher before pulling back more than 11% from its peak. This price action is familiar, and as derivative traders, it signals an opportunity to watch for support. The current pullback is causing us to look for a technical floor where buyers might reappear, just as we have seen in past cycles. This kind of price consolidation is particularly interesting for options traders because implied volatility has fallen considerably since the earnings event. Historical data shows that volatility in Block consistently contracts in the weeks following its quarterly reports, making options premiums relatively less expensive. This can create a more favorable environment for establishing bullish positions with defined risk. If the stock continues to drift lower in the coming weeks, we will be watching for signs of stabilization. One potential strategy would be to sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads with expirations in late April or May 2026. This approach allows us to collect a premium while giving the stock a buffer to find its footing above our chosen strike prices. This perspective is strengthened by recent economic data showing U.S. consumer spending has remained resilient, with retail sales figures beating expectations last month. Additionally, with the price of Bitcoin maintaining levels above $65,000, positive sentiment continues to support Block’s Cash App business segment. These factors provide a constructive backdrop for the digital payments sector. As always, regardless of how compelling a setup may look on the chart, managing risk is the most critical component. No single level is guaranteed to hold, and protecting our capital must take priority over any potential trade. We will use the price action in the coming days to determine whether a low-risk entry point develops.

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SentinelOne, Inc. (S) has fallen by over 50% in market value since the end of November 2024. The drop followed a steep declining trendline for most of the move. The share price has now moved above that trendline for the first time since the decline began. This week and last week are the only times in the whole slide that the stock has achieved a weekly close above the line. The main target cited for the move is a retrace to $17.04. This level matches the bottom of a former rising parallel channel that held price action from June 2023 until a downside break in November 2025. Before reaching $17.04, the stock faces a resistance zone between $14.60 and $15.00. A drop back below the trendline is described as a risk to the breakout. Support levels listed are $13.11 as minor support and $12.24 as major support. Key levels given are $17.04 (target), $14.60–$15.00 (resistance), and $13.11 and $12.24 (support), with the near-term trend described as bullish after the breakout. Given the recent break above the key declining trendline, we see a clear signal for a potential near-term rally. This technical shift suggests considering call options to capitalize on the expected upward momentum. The move is significant because, looking back from our 2025 perspective, the stock had been trapped in a downtrend that began in late 2024. The resistance zone around $15.00 makes it a logical initial strike price for call options expiring in April or May 2026. This bullish view is supported by the high short interest, which stood at over 9% of the float entering this month, creating the potential for a short squeeze on this breakout. The primary target of $17.04 could be a good strike for longer-dated calls, perhaps for the June 2026 expiration. To manage risk, we must watch the support levels closely, especially given the recent volatility in the broader tech sector. A decisive drop back below the trendline and the minor support at $13.11 would invalidate the bullish thesis. This level could serve as a trigger to either exit call positions or purchase protective puts with a $13.00 or $12.50 strike. Implied volatility is likely elevated following this breakout, making buying options more expensive. Therefore, we should consider strategies like bull call spreads to reduce the initial cost and define risk. For instance, buying a $15 call and selling a $17 call for April 2026 would directly target the identified price levels while capping both potential profit and loss.

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An update from 19 December introduced mid-term election-year seasonality and projected a peak around 18 April. The seasonality chart uses closing prices and shows relative price movement. It outlined dates due around 7 March (low), 11 March (high), 13 March (low), and a larger peak around 20 March. These dates were treated as approximate, within plus or minus 5 trading days.

How The Pattern Has Tracked So Far

So far, the index bottomed on a closing basis on 6 March and peaked on 9 March, then declined on 13 March. An up day on 13 March or early the next week was described as a way to confirm a trend change. A table compared key seasonal highs and lows with this year’s moves. Out of 11 major turning points, 8 matched closely and 3 did not, giving 73% alignment. The projected path was a bottom around 13 March, a rally to about 20 March, two weeks of decline, then a final rally into the 18 April high. This was also shown with an Elliott Wave count in a second figure. Last year, looking at the market in March 2025, we noted how well the S&P 500 was tracking mid-term election year seasonality. At that time, the pattern had aligned with actual market turns with about 73% accuracy. This historical tendency gave us a valuable roadmap for the market’s expected twists and turns. Here in March 2026, another mid-term election year, we are seeing a similar rhythm emerge. After a volatile start to the year, the market found a significant low in the final week of February before rallying strongly to a peak on March 10th. This recent pullback aligns with the expectation of a secondary low around the middle of the month, much like the pattern suggested last year.

Trading Plan For The Next Window

Recent economic data gives this view more credibility. The February 2026 Consumer Price Index came in slightly above expectations at 3.4%, causing the recent market dip and pushing the VIX volatility index back up to the 18 level. This suggests traders are nervous but are still looking for a reason to push prices higher, fitting the seasonal narrative. If this mid-term pattern continues to hold, we should anticipate the current weakness to be a buying opportunity. The roadmap suggests a bottom is forming right now, setting the stage for a rally into a peak around March 21st. Derivative traders should be preparing for this short-term upward move over the next week. For traders looking to capitalize on this, buying short-dated call options or establishing bullish call spreads on major indices with expirations in late March could be a prudent strategy. This approach allows for participation in the expected rally while clearly defining risk. The goal is to capture the potential upswing into that anticipated March 21st high. However, we must also look at what the pattern predicts next. Following the late-March peak, the seasonal model points to a roughly two-week decline into early April. Therefore, traders should be prepared to take profits on bullish positions and potentially initiate new bearish positions, such as buying April-expiration puts, to trade the subsequent downturn. This expected dip in early April could then present another opportunity for a final, more significant rally into the well-established mid-term year peak around April 19th. Vigilance is key as we monitor the price action to confirm the market is still following this historical path. We will anticipate these turns but stand ready to adjust if the market deviates. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr Henry Hao expects upcoming China figures to show a gap between output and domestic demand. Industrial Production is forecast at about 5.5% year-on-year, with exports of green technology up 21.8%. Retail sales are forecast at 3.0% year-on-year, pointing to weaker consumption than production. Lunar New Year tourism may lift services, but softer demand for big-ticket items could limit the rise.

Output Demand Divergence

Fixed-Asset Investment is expected to be near 1.5% year-on-year after contraction in 2025 H2. Near-term gains are linked to equipment upgrades, while wider infrastructure spending is expected to feed through later. Infrastructure-led support is expected to appear from Q2 as record bond issuance is deployed. A broader lift from infrastructure is described as more likely in the second half of the year. Upcoming Chinese data is expected to show a two-speed economy, which suggests a pairs trading strategy could be effective. We see industrial production growing a solid 5.5% year-on-year while retail sales lag at a modest 3.0%. This divergence supports going long industrial and export-focused assets while taking short positions on those tied to domestic consumption. The industrial strength is largely fueled by a projected 21.8% surge in green technology exports, a trend that has kept commodity prices firm. For instance, three-month copper futures on the LME have consistently held above the $9,000 per tonne mark in early 2026 due to steady purchasing. This outlook favors call options on industrial metals and ETFs focused on China’s new energy sector, though we remain watchful of trade tensions that simmered with Western nations through 2025.

Positioning For Two Speed China

Conversely, the weak domestic picture suggests continued pressure on consumer-facing companies. The modest retail sales forecast aligns with recent consumer confidence figures, which have struggled to break above the neutral 100-point level for over a year. This environment justifies holding put options on consumer discretionary indices and companies exposed to China’s real estate sector. Fixed-asset investment is expected to show a slight 1.5% gain, marking a tentative stabilization after the deep contractions we witnessed in the second half of 2025. However, any significant boost from infrastructure spending is unlikely before the second quarter, as funds from record government bond issuance are only now being deployed. This historical pattern, similar to the delayed impact of stimulus seen after 2015, implies that long positions on construction and materials stocks may be premature. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose on Friday and was on track for a second weekly gain, as tensions in the Middle East increased demand for the US Dollar. It traded near 100.32, close to levels last seen in May 2025. Demand increased as the US-Iran war led to more market caution, with funds moving towards the Dollar for liquidity and perceived safety. The index measures the Dollar against a basket of six major currencies.

Oil Supply Risks And Dollar Support

Oil supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices higher, adding to inflation concerns. As global oil trade is largely priced in US Dollars, higher energy prices can also support Dollar demand. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have eased, which lifted US Treasury yields and supported the Dollar. Markets are pricing in about 20 basis points of easing by December, down from earlier expectations of more than 50 basis points before the conflict, according to Bloomberg. Attention is turning to next week’s Fed meeting for updates, including the dot plot and the Summary of Economic Projections. The Dollar still faces longer-term pressures tied to US trade policy, concerns over Fed independence, rising government debt, and the fiscal outlook. Given the ongoing strength in the US Dollar, we see continued demand for options strategies that profit from high volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been elevated, recently trading above 28, a level reminiscent of the market stress we saw during the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in early 2022. This suggests traders should consider buying straddles or strangles on major currency pairs like EUR/USD to capitalize on large price swings, regardless of the direction.

Direct Dollar Trades And Positioning

The direct play on dollar strength remains attractive, with the DXY holding firm above the 100.00 level. We are looking at buying out-of-the-money call options on the US Dollar Index or put options on the EUR/USD pair with expirations in the next 30 to 60 days. Recent CFTC data confirms this trend, showing non-commercial net long positions in the dollar have reached their highest level since the third quarter of 2025. The fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut present a clear opportunity in interest rate futures. As of this week, the CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a less than 10% chance of a rate cut before the third quarter, a stark reversal from the 75% probability we priced in late last year, before the conflict escalated. We should consider shorting September SOFR futures to bet on the Fed maintaining its restrictive policy stance through the summer. Supply disruptions in the Middle East make energy derivatives a key focus. With Brent crude futures for May delivery now consolidating above $115 a barrel, buying call options on oil ETFs like USO offers a direct way to speculate on further price increases. The risk of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not fully priced in, leaving room for a significant upward move. Despite the dollar’s current strength, we must hedge against the structural headwinds mentioned late last year. The “debasement narrative” fueled by US fiscal concerns could re-emerge quickly if tensions de-escalate. We are layering in some protection by purchasing long-dated call options on gold, as the precious metal typically rallies when confidence in the dollar falters. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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